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Market Notes: Machado, White Sox, Mystery Team, Kipnis, Marwin

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Despite recent reports that the White Sox have made an eight-year offer to Manny Machado, a parade of others are reporting that the team has not moved off of its previous seven-year offer. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that the ChiSox have not made any alterations to their original seven-year offer, which was put on the table about two weeks back. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago suggests the same, via Twitter, adding that the offer presently on the table to Machado is valued between $25-30MM annually. That’d peg Chicago’s offer somewhere in the $175-210MM range — well shy of Machado’s reported $325MM+ target.

  • While the White Sox have gone to some unique measures to make Chicago a bit more appealing for Machado — acquiring his brother-in-law, Yonder Alonso, and signing close friend Jon Jay — SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Machado won’t be wooed by anything other than the largest offer (which goes without saying for the majority of free agents). More interesting from Martino’s report is the possibility of some dark-horse teams in the mix on Machado. While Martino acknowledges that the “mystery team” trope is overplayed and is “often mocked for good reason, we hear reliably that it’s true in this case.”
  • The Indians are still dabbling in trade talks, but it doesn’t sound as if the team has much hope of moving Jason Kipnis. According to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer, there was an effort to do so previously. But while an improved second half helped the Cleveland cause, the crowded second base market made it hard to find any traction. The 31-year-old has turned in below-average offensive seasons for two years running, but he’s still a useful player and has a significant established ceiling. The recent showing isn’t enough to justify his $14.5MM salary, particularly with another $2.5MM promised as a buyout on a 2020 option, but the Indians surely feel they can make good use of Kipnis in the season to come. For now, he’s penciled in at second base but his ability to play the outfield could give the Indians some added flexibility as they seek a means of improving their lineup.
  • While a rumor sprang up this evening that the Braves had a deal with Marwin Gonzalez, that doesn’t seem to have any legs. Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deports tweets that the Atlanta organization has not made any offers to the free agent, though it has shown interest in him. Presumably, the Braves see Gonzalez as a potential option in the corner outfield for the coming season. His versatility would be an asset, too, as he’d be capable of covering in the infield if a need arose in the near or long term. Of course, it remains unclear whether the Braves will pursue a multi-year deal with Gonzalez or another free agent, or whether they’ll try to wait out the market in hopes of securing a quality player on a short-term deal.

Padres, Reds, Indians Have Discussed 3-Team Scenario Involving Corey Kluber

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The Padres, Reds, and Indians have engaged in discussions regarding a possible three-team trade scenario, according to Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).

Precise permutations aren’t known, but the concept at play appears to be one that would send Cleveland ace Corey Kluber to Cincinnati via San Diego. Neither is it clear how serious talks are; Lin does emphasize, though, that no deal is close at present.

It seems the driving force here is the Friars’ search for a third baseman — and their ongoing attempt to structure a significant deal that improves the MLB roster now without denting the future outlook. Having failed to line up in direct talks to this point, Lin suggests, GM A.J. Preller is attempting to piece together more complicated, three-team arrangements.

While the Padres have long been said to be seeking quality MLB starting pitching, in addition to a hot corner upgrade, the report makes clear that they aren’t interested in acquiring Kluber for their own purposes. Though the outstanding righty certainly would be the ace the club would like to pick up, his relatively advanced age (33 in April) is a turnoff. And though his contract rights — $52.5MM over the next three years, the latter two via club option — remain quite appealing, it’s still a hefty payroll commitment for a traditionally low-budget org.

Of course, that same essential description holds also for the Reds, another team that’s hoping to boost its immediate performance while maintaining its long-term vision for a young, sustainable core. The Cincy ballclub has long been said to have interest in Kluber, and may have a slightly different tolerance for the age risk that comes with him.

Still, it’s no surprise to hear Lin reiterate that the club still isn’t terribly inclined to deal top prospect Nick Senzel to facilitate a deal. Senzel will not be parted with lightly, but indications are that he may ultimately be the object of the Padres’ fascination here. He’d more or less step right in at third base in San Diego and deliver a prized combination of youthful upside and affordable team control.

That leads to the element of this concept that’s most curious of all. The budget-conscious Indians only embarked upon talks involving Kluber as part of an effort to trim some payroll and better situate their roster for the future — all without sacrificing a still-clear path to another AL Central crown. That entire undertaking makes the most sense if the club adds a player of Senzel’s ilk.

Senzel would fit perfectly in Cleveland, where he could line up in the infield or outfield. (The Reds, of course, have considered utilizing him on the grass due to their own bumper crop of quality infielders.) Presumably, the Reds and Indians have already explored a Senzel-for-Kluber deal directly and failed to find common ground. Otherwise, it’s hard to see why the intermediary would be needed at all.

If not Senzel, then what would the Indians want out of all this? There’d surely be some level of interest in some of the Padres’ young MLB assets, with outfielder Manuel Margot and catcher Austin Hedges looking to be hypothetical fits from an outside perspective. (Interestingly, those teams lined up last summer on a deal that sent Francisco Mejia — another theoretical match — to San Diego.) But it stands to reason that the Indians would no doubt also demand some top-end young talent to drive the deal. The San Diego farm is loaded, but its very best pieces (Fernando Tatis Jr., especially) may not be on offer.

All said, it’s possible to imagine some permutations that might make sense for all involved, depending upon how the teams value the various potential pieces. But it’s an awfully tricky match. All three clubs are quite payroll sensitive. Of them, the Indians are clearly in the best position to win now, yet they’d be giving up the win-now piece. If there’s real substance to these discussions, or better still an eventual transaction, it’ll certainly represent a fascinating potential case study for understanding contemporary baseball decisionmaking.

Central Notes: Machado, Cardinals, Reds, Zimmer

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Could the White Sox now be the favorites to land Manny Machado?  Despite whispers of a mystery team being involved in Machado’s market, the Sox, Yankees, and Phillies were known to be the three clubs most heavily pursuing the free agent infielder.  However, with the Yankees addressing their infield needs elsewhere and the Phillies perhaps now in the driver’s seat to sign Bryce Harper, it leaves the White Sox as potentially the last team standing for Machado.  While things seem to be leaning in the Pale Hose’s direction right now, an industry source tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that “everything is still on the table” in regards to where Machado or Harper could sign.  “These guys are still so young (both 26), so if things aren’t what they want they could gamble and take a much shorter deal and try [free agency] again in the near future,” the source speculated.

More from both the AL and NL Central divisions…

  • The Cardinals have yet to hold any extension talks with Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, or Michael Wacha, GM Michael Girsch told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other media.  All three players are scheduled for free agency next winter, and while negotiations could yet take place later in the offseason, Girsch said “We’ll see how this year goes” in regards to the trio.  Since Goldschmidt has yet to play a game in a Cards uniform, it would be very surprising to see him ink an extension before getting a chance to test the open market.  As for Ozuna and Wacha, it makes sense for the Cardinals to see how either player bounces back from an injury-marred 2018 before making a long-term commitment.  Ozuna was solid but unspectacular last season, hitting .280/.325/.433 with 23 homers over 628 plate appearances while dealing with nagging shoulder issues.  Wacha, meanwhile, didn’t pitch after June 20 due to an oblique injury.
  • If the Reds could only spend their money on either Dallas Keuchel or A.J. Pollock, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon feels the team would choose Keuchel, given the greater need for rotation help.  Both players have been linked to the Reds in hot stove rumors this winter, and while Cincinnati has made some notable additions (i.e. Alex Wood and Tanner Roark) to its starting five, it still lacks a top-of-the-rotation arm.  Without Pollock or another true center fielder, the Reds could at least make do at the position in the short term, using some combination of Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, and Nick Senzel between the corners.  In another question in Sheldon’s mailbag piece, he doesn’t feel Jesse Winker will be an option in center field due to Winker’s lack of range.
  • Indians outfielder Bradley Zimmer is hoping to beat his recovery timetable as he rehabs from shoulder surgery, telling MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters that “I feel like I’ll be ready for Spring Training.”  Zimmer was slated for an eight-to-twelve month absence from baseball activities after undergoing labrum surgery last July, so he feels he is making good progress, while acknowledging that “the timetable is not really in my hands, as far as my progression.”  Still, it seems to be a good sign that the former top prospect is looking to hit the field sooner rather than later, especially since the Tribe is sore need of outfield help.  Zimmer has just a .237/.300/.370 slash line over 446 PA in the big leagues, though he has already displayed some quality baserunning and slick glovework in his brief time at the MLB level.

NL Notes: Kluber, Padres, Dodgers, Harper, Nats, Cubs, Boras/Phils

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The Padres persist in their dogged pursuit of Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s JP Morosi, who notes that the club would prefer to hold on to each of its top five prospects. The Tribe reportedly “have interest” in lefty Adrian Morejon, who, despite his status as a consensus top 50-75 prospect, wouldn’t fall into the aforementioned category in a loaded Padre farm. Still, it’s tough to see a deal consummated without one of those players; Cleveland, after all, has been widely reported to be seeking a Chris Sale-esque return for Kluber, and wouldn’t likely settle for even high-grade chaff. If the club is still interested in dealing the 32-year-old ace, the Padres would be seem a perfect fit: the club is loaded not only with blue-chip prospects, but also sport a glut of young, if underperforming, outfielders at every position. Morosi lists Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe as options, though the Tribe may also have its eyes on Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, in addition to the richly-paid Wil Myers.

More from the Senior Circuit …

  • In the same article, Morosi reports that the Dodgers still “remain involved” in discussions for Kluber. The club certainly boasts its share of high-level farm talent – though it can’t match the San Diego riches – but thus far, under the tenure of Baseball Ops President Andrew Friedman, has been altogether opposed to dealing from the top of its farm. Multiple high-level departures would be an unequivocal sea change for the boys in blue, who may be feeling the pressure from a desperate fanbase after so many near-misses in the recent past. Adding Kluber to the top of the team’s rotation without a 25-man prune has to be tempting for even the most measured of front offices, but the slotted five (Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and Rich Hill) already rival any in the game.
  • Though many executives questioned the veracity of the Nationals’ reported 10-year, $300MM offer to Bryce Harper on the last day of the season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the offer was “indeed real,” and that the two sides continue to negotiate. Harper, it seems, would very much like to surpass the $325MM guaranteed to Giancarlo Stanton, though doesn’t appear to have the wind-ranging market he once envisioned. Some interested teams continue to disguise their intentions, but not the Cubs, who Rosenthal notes “would love” a shot at Harper, if only the front office could get the “unlikely” go-ahead from ownership.
  • Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia details the Fightins’ unique relationship with agent Scott Boras over the years, which reached a tipping point over 1997’s bitter dispute with number two overall pick J.D. Drew. The Phillies, of course, are set to meet with Harper today in Las Vegas, and have long been considered the near-favorite for his services. Per Salisbury, the club plans to address recent reports that the 26-year-old star is not fond of Philadelphia, which would seem to strike a death knell to the team’s chances. Among all potential suitors with near-term competitive ambitions, the Phils have the greatest need – and, perhaps, the most available cash – for Harper, and perhaps the team’s recent amenability with Boras could tip the scales in its direction.

Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).

Indians Claim A.J. Cole

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The Indians have claimed righty A.J. Cole off waivers from the Yankees, per club announcements. Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage first tweeted the news.

Cole, who recently turned 27, had failed to catch on with the Nationals before landing with the Yanks last year. He carved out a role in the New York bullpen, where he worked to a 4.26 ERA in 38 innings over 28 appearances. The out-of-options hurler could function as a long man for a Cleveland org that is looking for ways to improve on the cheap.

There were certainly some positives last year, as Cole worked off of a mid-nineties fastball and logged 11.6 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 with the Yankees. He continued to struggle with the long ball, though, and has allowed nearly two per nine innings during his 148 career innings in the majors.

Indians Avoid Arbitration With Francisco Lindor

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The Indians have agreed to a 2019 salary with star shortstop Francisco Lindor, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports (Twitter links). It’s a $10.55MM deal, checking in just shy of the first-year arb-eligible record set last year by Kris Bryant at $10.85MM.

Lindor had projected to earn $10.2MM after a stellar three-plus season run to open his career in Cleveland. He’ll remain controllable for two more campaigns before reaching free agent eligibility after the end of the 2021 season.

The switch-hitting Lindor, who only just turned 25 years of age, just turned in his best season at the plate, leading the American League in plate appearances and runs while launching a career-high 38 long balls and 25 stolen bases. He slashed a robust .277/.352/.519 on the year while providing top-end glovework making him one of the most valuable players in all of baseball.

Market Chatter: Realmuto, Keuchel, Indians, Castellanos, Ross

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The on-again, off-again chatter surrounding the Braves and Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has left an uncertain situation. While the Atlanta organization already seems to have a palatable situation behind the dish, with Brian McCann rejoining the org to pair with Tyler Flowers, it’s also one that is susceptible of improvement. In any event, the stalemate seemingly continues, though Craig Mish of MLB Network does tweet that the teams have been in contact of late regarding Realmuto. It’s far from clear that any progress has been made, though, as he says the Braves “appear to be waiting [the] Marlins out.” The Rays also “remain a possibility,” says Mish, though at this point it’s really anyone’s guess how things will turn out with regard to Realmuto, who’s a valuable enough asset that any number of other teams could conceivably still enter the picture or circle back if other offseason pursuits don’t pan out.

Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • The Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sagas are holding up the markets for many remaining free agents, even left-hander Dallas Keuchel, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (video link). Rosenthal suggested on MLBN’s Hot Stove this morning that Keuchel is waiting to see where the market’s top two free agents land, presumably knowing that a suitor who misses out on Harper or Machado will have money to spend elsewhere. The Phillies, for instance, have been connected to all three players, so it’s not all that difficult to see them making a more serious run at Keuchel should their top two targets sign elsewhere.
  • Another would-be blockbuster situation that may now be fizzling is the Indians’ oft-discussed negotiations on top starters Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer discusses the situation, suggesting it may be time for the Cleveland organization to ask for final offers and otherwise move on from the marketing process. Of course, it’s far from clear that the team is taking that stance. And as Hoynes goes on to discuss, it’s also still not apparent how (or even if) the Indians will go about improving a roster that looks quite a bit different than it did just a few months ago. It’s still possible that Cleveland could add an outfielder from the free-agent market, but there’s no indication that they’re in line to make a significant splash on that front.
  • Meanwhile, talks between the Braves and the Tigers regarding outfielder Nicholas Castellanos have gone nowhere since the two sides talked at last month’s Winter Meetings, Morosi tweets. The Braves are, of course, still looking far and wide for a corner outfielder and are “active” in their pursuit of that key need. With many options seemingly still on the table, though, the club appears to be content not to push hard for any particular player, which might increase the acquisition cost.
  • Veteran southpaw Robbie Ross is preparing to throw for scouts in mid-January as he looks for a new opportunity, MLBTR has learned. Ross spent time with the White Sox organization in 2018, but struggled with his command as he worked back to health following back surgery in August of 2017. He’s now said to be at full strength, though he’ll certainly need to show that to the talent evaluators who take a look. The 29-year-old has generally been quite effective as a big-league reliever, with a 3.52 ERA in 270 2/3 career innings in that capacity.

Indians Avoid Arbitration With Kevin Plawecki

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The Indians have agreed to a $1,137,500 deal with recently acquired backstop Kevin Plawecki, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (via Twitter). He had been projected by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.3MM.

Plawecki, 27, reached arb eligibility this year as a Super Two player. That means he’ll still be controllable for three more campaigns to come by the Cleveland organization.

The recent swap that delivered Plawecki to the Indians was designed to fill the void created when the club shipped out Yan Gomes at the outset of the offseason. In the aggregate, the team will save just under $6MM in its catching unit, which also features Roberto Perez and Eric Haase.

Plawecki is something of an offensive-oriented backstop, though he’s hardly a world-beating hitter. Since the start of the 2017 season, he has hit at a roughly league-average .225/.330/.379 rate. Defensively, he grades well at blocking pitches in the dirt but isn’t much loved by pitch-framing metrics.

Despite his limitations on the field, the one-time top prospect seems to be a nice value at his current price tag, which explains why he was targeted by the budget-conscious Indians. His earning power over the following three seasons will be driven by his playing time and performance, of course, so the Cleveland club will enjoy ample flexibility in the years to come.

As always, you can keep up to date with arbitration numbers with MLBTR’s Arbitration Database.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/8/19

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We’ll track the day’s minor moves with this post …

  • The Nationals are in agreement on a minor league contract with corner infielder/outfielder Brandon Snyder, tweets Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The 32-year-old journeyman went 1-for-6 in a brief cup of coffee with the Rays this past season and is a career .240/.276/.455 hitter with nine homers, 14 doubles and a triple in 211 Major League plate appearances. Since debuting with the Orioles back in 2010, the former No. 13 overall pick has played first base, third base and both outfield corners at the MLB level.

Earlier Moves

  • Righty Rob Wooten is returning to the Reds on a minor-league deal, he announced. Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage first tweeted the news. Wooten will be back for a third season in the Cincinnati org, though he hasn’t yet appeared at the MLB level since a three-season run with the Brewers. Wooten has only thrown 40 2/3 minor-league innings over the past two seasons while battling injuries.
  • Likewise, right-hander Aaron Northcraft has confirmed that he’s going to the Mariners on a minor-league arrangement. The 28-year-old is seeking to make a comeback after turning in a solid showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. He has allowed just three earned runs over 17 2/3 innings while compiling 17 strikeouts against nine walks. The former tenth-round pick never made it to the bigs in his first effort but will try to jump start his career this spring. He was previously shipped to the Padres along with Justin Upton in the 2014 blockbuster with the Braves.
  • The Indians have added southpaw Hector Hernandez on a minors pact, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Soon to turn 28, Hernandez is another former tenth-round draft choice who hasn’t yet appeared at the MLB level. Indeed, he only briefly touched Triple-A before dropping out of affiliated ball following the 2016 season. Still, it seems he caught someone’s eye with his winter efforts in his native Puerto Rico.
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