Twins Rumors

3 Twins Prospects Could Be “Off Limits” In Trade Talks

By Connor Byrne | July 11, 2019 at 11:30pm CDT

With July 31 approaching, the AL Central-leading Twins have reportedly shown interest in an array of pitchers who are potential trade candidates. The club has been connected to Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles and Kirby Yates in the rumor mill over the past few weeks. However, if the Twins are going to make win-now moves this month, it doesn’t appear they’ll come at the expense of any of their absolute best prospects. Shortstop Royce Lewis, outfielder Alex Kirilloff and right-hander Brusdar Graterol are “off limits” in trade talks, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune.

It’s especially unsurprising the Twins don’t seem to want to give up the 20-year-old Lewis, whom they drafted first overall in 2017 and then signed to a record bonus for a high schooler. Two years later, FanGraphs (No. 2), MLB.com (No. 7) and Baseball America (No. 10) all regard Lewis as a top 10 major league prospect. ESPN’s Keith Law, who just released his latest top 50 (worth checking out in full), is somewhat less bullish on Lewis. In ranking Lewis 34th, Law explains that “massive” mechanical changes the player has made at the plate haven’t benefited him. Lewis, for what it’s worth, has only hit .239/.288/.373 (95 wRC+) in 358 plate appearances at the High-A level this season. Beyond that, Law’s skeptical of Lewis’ ability to stick at short, writing he’s likely a better fit to play center field.

In Law’s estimation, Kirilloff (No. 15) is a superior prospect to Lewis. The other prospect gurus are similarly high on Kirilloff – BA ranks him 11th, MLB.com 13th and FanGraphs 26th. The 15th overall pick of the Twins in 2016, Kirilloff has made a 216-PA debut with Double-A Pensacola this season and slashed .283/.366/.429 with four home runs. That doesn’t look like a world-beating line, but by wRC+, the 21-year-old Kirilloff’s production has been 33 percent better than the Southern League average. Furthermore, even though Kirilloff hasn’t been particularly powerful this year, there aren’t many concerns over him developing into a solid power hitter in the majors, according to Law.

Graterol, meanwhile, didn’t crack Law’s rankings, though he’s in the top 50s of Baseball America (No. 36) and MLB.com (No. 50). FanGraphs places him just a few spots outside (53rd). BA credits Graterol, 20, with possessing “wipeout stuff,” adding there’s room for him to improve his command. Like Kirilloff, Graterol’s in the midst of his first Double-A action. He owns a superb 1.89 ERA/3.28 FIP with 8.69 K/9, 3.59 BB/9 and a 52.1 percent groundball rate in nine starts and 47 2/3 innings thus far.

Although the Twins don’t look willing to move any of Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol, that shouldn’t necessarily preclude them from adding impact MLB talent before the deadline. The club does boast FanGraphs’ seventh-ranked farm system, two more top 100 prospects at MLB.com (93rd-rated outfielder Trevor Larnach and 99th-ranked righty Jordan Balazovic), and likely plenty more farmhands who’d pique the interest of other teams in negotiations.

The Most Improved Offense Of 2019

By Connor Byrne | July 10, 2019 at 8:14pm CDT

After unexpectedly earning a playoff berth in 2017, the Twins finished far out of contention last season with a 78-84 record. The club’s offense contributed to its mediocrity a year ago, ranking 13th in the majors in runs, 19th in wRC+ (95) and 23rd in homers. Aside from infielder Eduardo Escobar, whom Minnesota traded to Arizona before the end-of-July deadline, none of its regulars posted well above-average offensive production. Additionally, the Twins handed out a couple thousand plate appearances to players who were so-so or worse at the plate. Franchise icon Joe Mauer, who retired at season’s end, as well as Brian Dozier (traded last summer) and offseason departures Robbie Grossman, Logan Morrison and Logan Forsythe were among those responsible for Minnesota’s middle-of-the-pack attack.

Unlike last season, there hasn’t been anything run-of-the-mill about the Twins’ offense. In fact, the unit has been downright scary, a key reason why the Twins have sprinted to the majors’ fourth-ranked record (56-33). No team has scored more runs than the Twins, who are tied atop the league at 509 and have seen their wRC+ climb a whopping 21 points to 116 (second in baseball). With 166 home runs, the Twins are first in the majors and on pace to eclipse the record 266 the Yankees swatted just last season.

The club’s marked offensive improvement is the product of in-house talent coming into its own and shrewd offseason pickups by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine. A slew of holdovers – shortstop Jorge Polanco (19), center fielder Byron Buxton (19), outfielder Max Kepler (25), utilityman Ehire Adrianza (30), third baseman Miguel Sano (44), and catchers Mitch Garver (53) and Jason Castro (83) – have each boosted their wRC+ by sizable amounts. Meanwhile, unheralded rookie utility player Luis Arraez has recorded a phenomenal 162 wRC+ in his first 95 plate appearances.

The Twins also helped their cause with a few notable additions to their offense over the winter, including the signing of accomplished slugger Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $14.3MM deal. Cruz couldn’t find a multiyear contract because of his advanced age (39), but he still isn’t showing signs of slowing down. He has smashed 16 homers, giving him 376 for his career, and is on track to finish with a 130-plus wRC+ for the sixth straight year.

Fellow free-agent signings Jonathan Schoop (103 wRC+) and Marwin Gonzalez (94) haven’t been close to as effective as Cruz, but Schoop has outdone the offensive output Dozier and Forsythe put up at second in 2018. Gonzalez has come on strong since an ice-cold April, thereby doing his best to justify the two-year, $21MM investment Minnesota made in him.

The team also utilized the waiver wire to its advantage in the offseason, scooping up first baseman C.J. Cron after the Rays cut him on the heels of a 30-home run season. Cron, whom the Rays didn’t want to pay an estimated $5.2MM in arbitration, settled for $4.8MM after catching on with the Twins. The 29-year-old’s numbers have dipped compared to last season’s, though he has still hit .266/.326/.495 (111 wRC+) in 331 PA and added 17 HRs to the Twins’ potentially historic ledger.

With the Twins hoping to vie for a World Series in the season’s second half, it’s fair to wonder whether their offense can keep up this type of pace. Statcast’s expected weighted on-base average metric presents a mixed bag of answers. Castro, Cruz, Gonzalez and Cron have all logged xwOBAs ranging from 29 to 55 points better than their actual marks. On the other hand, the xwOBAs of Polanco and Kepler are 15 points lower, Buxton’s is 26 points inferior, Sano’s lagging by 43 and Garver by 57. However, Polanco, Kepler and Garver are still clearly above average in the category. Meantime, there’s not much difference for Adrianza, Schoop or slugging outfielder Eddie Rosario.

Between a high-octane offense and a quality pitching staff, the Twins are legitimate candidates to play deep into the fall this year. Of course, there’s still work to be done around this month’s trade deadline (perhaps by acquiring another starter and more relief help) for a team trying to hold off the hard-charging Indians in the American League Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Indians, Abreu, Allen

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2019 at 3:31pm CDT

The Indians never so much as made a contract offer to Michael Brantley before he inked a two-year, $32MM deal in Houston this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports within a broader look at the club’s struggles to retain top stars. Nightengale interviews both Brantley and CC Sabathia about their emotional departures from Cleveland as part of a piece that wonders whether Francisco Lindor’s eventual exit is anything less than a foregone conclusion. For his part, Lindor calls Cleveland “home” and adds that he hopes to stay before more vaguely stating: “When that time comes, we’ll decide.” Lindor’s long-term future has been particularly in question since Indians owner Paul Dolan ominously told fans to “enjoy him” while the team has him under control.

Indians fans will want to give the column a read not only for talk of Lindor’s future but also some heartfelt reminiscing from both Sabathia — “I cried like a baby when I was traded” — and Brantley. Both players offer nothing but fond memories of the city, the organization and the fanbase.

Latest On Market For Madison Bumgarner

By Jeff Todd | July 8, 2019 at 9:25pm CDT

We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.

The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.

All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.

Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).

Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).

As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.

The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.

Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.

Yankees, Twins Have Each Asked About Package Deal For Stroman, Giles

By Steve Adams | July 8, 2019 at 2:21pm CDT

The Blue Jays have one of the best starters (Marcus Stroman) and one of the best relievers (Ken Giles) available on this summer’s trade market, and TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that teams have been expressing interest in acquiring both in the same package. Both the Twins and the Yankees have reached out to Toronto to express interest in a single trade to net both pitchers, per Mitchell, who cautions that the organization’s preference may be to maximize the return by orchestrating separate trades.

Minnesota’s interest in Giles (and relief help in general) has already been reported. But for all the help the Twins could use in the ’pen, the rotation is also a potential area of focus. The wheels have come off the Martin Perez project of late, as the lefty has been hammered for a 5.37 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate across his past 10 starts. And while Michael Pineda has improved in recent weeks as he distances himself from 2017 Tommy John surgery, he also figures to have his workload more carefully managed late in the season.

The Yankees are a similarly logical landing spot for Stroman. Luis Severino has yet to pitch this season due to multiple injuries, while each of James Paxton, Domingo German and CC Sabathia has spent time on the injured list. Left-hander J.A. Happ has struggled as well (5.02 ERA, 5.35 FIP in 89 12/3 innings) — unable to replicate a quartet of strong seasons from 2015-18.

Stroman recently had a bit of a health scare, exiting his last outing against the Royals due to a pectoral cramp. His final start prior to the All-Star break was skipped, but Stroman isn’t expected to miss time beyond that. If the issue is as minor as it appears to be, Stroman’s value wouldn’t be likely to take a hit. It seems quite likely that Stroman will be wearing a new uniform come Aug. 1, although Atkins danced around the matter without addressing the likelihood of a deal in a recent meeting with the Toronto media (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet):

I would say this: Marcus has put himself in an incredible position throughout his career, not just over the last four months. He has been durable. He has performed at an exceptionally high rate. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last three years and because of that he is in a great position for his future with the Toronto Blue Jays and there are 29 other teams that are thinking the same way, that they would love to have someone that has been durable and has been productive. We’ll see. With another year of control for us, that’s attractive to us, that’s extremely attractive to other teams, as well. He’s put himself in a remarkable spot and earned all of that respect.

As for Giles, he may appear to be somewhat of a luxury for a deep Yankees relief corps, but it’s also true that the ’pen hasn’t been as dominant as many might have expected. Aroldis Chapman and Tommy Kahnle have thrived, and Chad Green looks reborn since a brief demotion to Triple-A in late April. Adam Ottavino has a sub-2.00 ERA but 6.1 BB/9 mark. Zack Britton’s bat-missing ability still hasn’t returned, as his 6.3 K/9 mark isn’t much higher than his 4.9 BB/9. Jonathan Holder had to be optioned to the minors after struggling to keep his ERA under 7.00. Dellin Betances, like Severino, hasn’t pitched in 2019.

Either Stroman or Giles on his own would have a fairly notable asking price, so adding both at once may very well teeter on exorbitant. The Jays seem likely to move both, though, and they’re also expected to gauge interest in Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Sanchez, Eric Sogard, Daniel Hudson and other veterans as their rebuilding efforts continue.

Twins Have Shown Interest In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates

By Steve Adams | July 8, 2019 at 7:01am CDT

The Twins’ need for bullpen help has been apparent for much of the season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they’ve “definitely checked on” a pair of the market’s top options: Blue Jays closer Ken Giles and Padres closer Kirby Yates. Both right-handers are controlled through the 2020 season via arbitration. Neal notes that the Blue Jays and Padres both had scouts on hand to watch the Twins’ Triple-A club recently, as did the Diamondbacks and Pirates (presumably, in addition to multiple other organizations).

Minnesota has seen the division-rival Indians creep back into the divisional picture with a six-game winning streak to close out the first half. The Twins took two out of three from the Rangers to finish out the half and were in position for a potential sweep Sunday. However, the offense couldn’t break a tie before the ’pen allowed a trio of runs in the top of the 11th inning.

Left-hander Taylor Rogers has quietly broken through as one of baseball’s best relievers. He boasts a 1.56 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9 and a 46.9 percent grounder rate in 86 2/3 innings dating back to last June, when he began heavily relying on a slider that transformed his arsenal and perhaps his career. Minnesota has also received strong output from 30-year-old rookie right-hander Ryne Harper.

Looking past that pairing, Tyler Duffey has generally been sharp but has stumbled recently, with runs allowed in three of four outings. Trevor May and Matt Magill are both missing bats at high clips but also issuing far too many walks. Offseason signee Blake Parker has has a solid ERA and 10 saves but is averaging a sky-high 2.03 HR/9 with too many walks himself. He’s unlikely to sustain his 3.77 ERA (5.72 FIP, 4.74 xFIP). Journeyman Mike Morin has a 3.18 ERA in 22 2/3 innings but has only fanned 11 hitters in that time.

Those seven names lead Twins relievers in innings pitched, but Minnesota has utilized another 13 arms out of the ’pen so far in 2019. Most have struggled considerably. Twins relievers do rank either 12th or 13th in the Majors in collective ERA, FIP and xFIP, but it’s been a top-heavy unit that, like any contender’s bullpen, would benefit significantly from another experienced late-inning arm.

Giles, 28, is earning $6.3MM and is arguably in the midst of his best season in the Majors. Through 31 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a career-high 15.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9. Josh Hader is the only qualified pitcher in baseball with a higher swinging-strike rate than Giles’ ridiculous 20.4 percent mark. Giles also ranks in the top 10 in terms of opponents’ chase rate (39.1 percent) and average fastball velocity (97.3 mph). With the Blue Jays in a rebuild and already well out of playoff contention, he’s among the safest bets to be traded in all of MLB.

Yates, 32, has been even better. The second waiver-claim-turned-relief-ace the Padres have unearthed in the past couple of seasons, Yates erupted as one baseball’s premier relievers upon adopting a splitter that ranks as one of the game’s most effective offerings. He’s recorded video-game numbers so far in 2019, with a 1.15 ERA, 13.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9 and a 48 percent grounder rate. He’s being paid at an even more affordable $3.0625MM rate in 2019, but San Diego, unlike Toronto, is firmly in the postseason picture. The Padres are an insurmountable 14 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but sit just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Reports have indicated that the Padres would need an “overwhelming offer” or “unforeseen haul” in order to move Yates.

It stands to reason that the Twins have checked in far more relievers than just these two, of course. Twins brass has surely checked in on the majority of relievers publicly known to be available — and quite likely several that don’t stand out as readily apparent trade candidates. It’s perhaps of some note that both players listed are controlled beyond the 2019 campaign, though Minnesota has also been connected to Giants closer Will Smith — a free agent at season’s end. If the Twins do prefer relievers controlled through at least 2020, some other options would include San Francisco’s Sam Dyson (profiled here last Friday), Detroit’s Shane Greene, Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, Seattle’s Roenis Elias and Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy.

Twins Place C.J. Cron On Injured List

By TC Zencka | July 6, 2019 at 10:29am CDT

Twins first baseman C.J. Cron has been placed on the injured list with right thumb inflammation, per a team announcement. Outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr. has been recalled to take the vacated roster spot.

Cron has made good on the $4.8MM deal he signed prior to this season after being DFA’ed by the Rays. His .266/.326/.495 slash line almost exactly duplicates the line he put up last season in Tampa Bay. With 17 home runs thus far, Cron has a chance to hit the 30 long balls mark for the second straight season. He’s not alone, of course, on the power-packed Minnesota Twins, who currently roster 9 players with double-digit home runs. The Twins lead the majors in isolated power (.227 ISO) and slugging (.500 SLG), and they’re tied with the Astros with 117 wRC+ as a team.

As useful as Cron has been, he’s far from the least replaceable piece on this Minnesota contender. Miguel Sano has spent some time at first base, and Marwin Gonzalez has played the position with regularity throughout his career. Jason Castro, Mitch Garver, and Kepler could also be options for covering first while Cron is out. With the All-Star break approaching, Cron may not miss much time at all, however.

Wade Jr. had a very short stint with the big league club before being optioned back to Triple-A last Saturday. He appeared in only game in during that time. With Rochester this season, the 25-year-old Wade has hit .246/.392/.356 across 77 games.

AL Injury Notes: Luzardo, Stroman, Twins, Mize

By Jeff Todd and Connor Byrne | July 6, 2019 at 12:47am CDT

There’s now a rough timeline for Athletics southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was agonizingly close to a full return from a shoulder injury — and his first taste of the majors — when he suffered a lat strain days ago. Fortunately, the hyped 21-year-old could be ready to begin a new rehab assignment within four or five weeks. That’s about as quick a potential bounce back as might have been hoped for a player who’ll assuredly be handled with extra care. It seems there’s still a reasonable shot of Luzardo being a late-season MLB option, though the A’s will not be able to assume that they’ll get a shot in the arm from the top prospect.

Here’s more from the American League:

Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman will not take the ball again before the All-Star break, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman hasn’t pitched since he exited a June 29 start with a left pectoral cramp, though the injury may not be severe enough to prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game, according to Nicholson-Smith. Regardless, the team’s hope is he’ll start its first game after the break. The fact that Stroman’s one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates makes his health all the more crucial with the July 31 deadline coming up.
There was some good news and bad news today on the injury front for the Twins, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Outfielder Eddie Rosario, on the IL with a sprained ankle since June 28, is making progress and should return shortly after the All-Star break, manager Rocco Baldelli suggested. Meanwhile, the left oblique strain that forced fan favorite and utilityman Willians Astudillo to the IL on June 27 is “significant,” per Baldelli. It could keep Astudillo out “for the foreseeable future,” Park writes.
Tigers prospect Casey Mize has resumed throwing after a recent injury scare, GM Al Avila told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). That’s not of immediate consequence for the Detroit club, but is certainly excellent news for the team’s long-term outlook. Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick and one of the majors’ elite farmhands, has been on the minor league IL with right shoulder inflammation for three weeks. The 22-year-old laid waste to his competition before then, combining for a 0.92 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 78 innings between High-A and Double-A ball.

Twins Outright Andrew Vasquez Off 40-Man Roster

By Mark Polishuk | July 4, 2019 at 2:33pm CDT

The Twins have outrighted southpaw Andrew Vasquez off their 40-man roster, according to multiple reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Vasquez has been outrighted to Triple-A, where he has already been pitching for much of the season.

Vasquez made his MLB debut last September, appearing in nine games for Minnesota and posting a 5.40 ERA over five innings of work. He has only made one big league appearance in 2019, a very rough outing against the Mets on April 10 that saw Vasquez allow three earned runs without recording an out. The 25-year-old has also been dealing with injury, spending two separate stints on the Triple-A injured list this year due to shoulder problems.

Twins To Place Jake Odorizzi On Injured List

By Connor Byrne | July 3, 2019 at 1:07am CDT

Twins All-Star right-hander Jake Odorizzi is headed to the injured list with a blister, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The issue should only shelve Odorizzi for one start, however. They’ll recall righty Zack Littell from Triple-A Rochester to take Odorizzi’s 25-man roster spot.

Odorizzi’s blister helped force him out of the Twins’ loss to the Athletics on Tuesday after he threw just three innings. He yielded six runs (five earned) on three hits, including two home runs, with three walks against two strikeouts. Odorizzi has now gone four outings in a row without posting a quality start, thereby raising his ERA from a near-spotless 1.92 on June 9 to 3.15 in less than a month.

Recent problems notwithstanding, this has been an impressive contract year for Odorizzi, who has helped pitch the Twins to a 53-31 record and a seven-game lead in the AL Central. The 29-year-old has capitalized on an increase in velocity to log a career-high 9.74 K/9 (against 3.05 BB/9) and a personal-best 3.59 FIP in 88 2/3 innings. While Odorizzi continues showing an aversion to grounders, he has largely avoided HRs. That hasn’t been the case during his recent slide, though, and now he’ll take a short breather.

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