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Pirates Acquire Andre Jackson

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The Pirates and Dodgers have worked out a trade that will send right-hander Andre Jackson to Pittsburgh, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (via Twitter).  The Pirates have announced the trade, adding that Jackson has been optioned to Triple-A and that the Dodgers are getting cash considerations in return.  Mark Mathias has been designated for assignment to open up space on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster.

The Dodgers designated Jackson for assignment earlier this week to open up a 40-man roster spot for Ryan Brasier.  He’ll now change organizations for the first time in a pro career that began when the Dodgers selected Jackson in the 12th round of the 2017 draft.  The righty has appeared in each of the last three Major League seasons, with a total of 39 innings on his resume.

While Jackson had a 2.11 ERA over 21 1/3 innings in 2021-22, things haven’t gone as smoothly this year, as Jackson had a 6.62 ERA in 17 2/3 frames of work.  The long ball has been Jackson’s biggest nemesis, as after giving up just one home run in 2021-22, he has already allowed five homers this season.  It isn’t exactly a new problem for the right-hander, as he has trouble keeping the ball in the park over his three seasons at Triple-A (in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League).

Between the homers and an inflated 14.77% walk rate, Jackson has a 5.21 ERA in 129 2/3 career innings at the Triple-A level, with a 22.07% strikeout rate.  It isn’t the most promising set of numbers, yet as a pitcher capable of working as a traditional starter or long reliever, Jackson has some interesting value as at least a depth arm, particularly to a pitching-needy team like Pittsburgh.

With multiple relievers on the injured list, the Pirates will likely explore Jackson as a reliever first and foremost, or possibly as a bulk pitcher behind an opener if the Bucs get creative with their rotation.  Tomorrow’s off-day is the Pirates’ last free day until the All-Star break, and coming off a stretch of 13 games in 13 days, the Pirates might be looking for spot-start possibilities.

Pittsburgh acquired Mathias in a trade with the Rangers in March, and the utilityman has been shuttled back and forth several times between the majors and Triple-A.  Mathias has hit .231/.355/.269 over 62 plate appearances, playing mostly as a second baseman with a pair of other appearances in right field.  2023 is Mathias’ third Major League season, after he previously appeared in 16 games with the Brewers in 2020 and a combined 30 games with Milwaukee and Texas in 2022.  In between, Mathias spent the 2021 campaign recovering from shoulder surgery.

If Mathias clears waivers, he has the right to reject a possible outright assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis.  Because Mathias has been outrighted before in his career, he has the option of turning down another outright from the Bucs and instead can become a free agent.

Pirates Promote Nick Gonzales

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4:23pm: Pittsburgh officially selected Gonzales’ contract. Outfielder Cal Mitchell was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis to clear a spot on the active roster. To open a 40-man vacancy, the Bucs transferred righty Vince Velasquez from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list. He’s out for the season after undergoing elbow surgery.

11:00am: The Pirates are set to promote infield prospect Nick Gonzales, reports Jim Rosati of North Shore Nine. Gonzales isn’t on the 40-man roster so a corresponding move or moves will be required to get him aboard.

Gonzales, 24, was selected by the Pirates with the seventh overall pick in the 2020 draft. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic that year, but he was nonetheless vaulted onto prospect lists based on his work at New Mexico State University. His exceptional bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline were lauded as his standout tools as Baseball America ranked him the #51 prospect in the league going into 2021. MLB Pipeline had him at #43, Baseball Prospectus at #39, FanGraphs at #86 and ESPN at #66.

He was finally able to make his professional debut in 2021, spending it in High-A. A broken finger cost him more than a month of that season but he still got into 80 games. He walked in 10.8% of his plate appearances but his 27.4% strikeout rate was on the high side, especially for a player whose carrying tool is his bat. Nonetheless, he hit .302/.385/.565 at that level and generally crept higher on prospect lists going into 2022.

Injuries popped up again last year as he tore the plantar fascia in the heel of his foot, costing him about two months and limiting him to just 74 games on the year. He posted a strong batting line of .264/.382/.435, mostly in Double-A, but struck out at a 28.4% clip. He finished the year with a sold .279/.351/.500 showing in the Arizona fall league.

Despite those strong batting lines, the concerns about the punchouts delivered a blow to his prospect stock. He’s not considered an especially strong defender or baserunner, making any drop in the assessment of hit bat noteworthy. He was bumped off each of the aforementioned prospect lists coming into 2023 and dropped on team-specific lists as well. BA had him #8 in the Pirates’ system at the start of the this year after having him at #3 in previous seasons. Keith Law of The Athletic put him at #9 while FanGraphs had him all the way down at #23, with each outlet concerned about the swing and miss, particularly against breaking pitches.

Here in 2023, Gonzales has been in Triple-A. Through 262 plate appearances, he’s hitting .257/.370/.450 for a wRC+ of 106. That indicates he’s been a bit above league average at that level but he’s still striking out at a 28.6% rate.

Defensively, Gonzales has spent most of his time at second base. He’s not especially well regarded there, but has also seen some time at shortstop and third. The Bucs are set at third base with Ke’Bryan Hayes but the middle infield is a little less clear with shortstop Oneil Cruz still on the injured list and not close to a return. Mark Mathias got some time at second base but was optioned earlier this week after hitting at a subpar rate. Each of Ji Hwan Bae and Tucupita Marcano have played some middle infield but also with below-average offensive output. Rodolfo Castro has been a hair above average at the plate but his shortstop defense isn’t very well regarded.

Given all of those imperfect pieces, the Pirates will turn to Gonzales to see if he can provide a jolt. Despite the strikeout concerns, he does seem to do consistent damage when he does make contact. The Pirates got out to a scorching hot start this year and were leading the National League Central for a time but they are in a bad skid now. They have lost 10 straight and put Bryan Reynolds on the injured list yesterday. It seems they don’t want the season to slip away from them and are willing to turn to their farm for reinforcements, promoting Henry Davis earlier this week and now Gonzales.

Pirates Place Bryan Reynolds On IL

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The Pirates announced they have placed outfielder Bryan Reynolds on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 20, due to low back inflammation. Right-hander Cody Bolton has been recalled in a corresponding move. Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relayed the moves on Twitter prior to the official announcement.

Reynolds, 28, sat out the club’s past two games due to this back issue and it seems it has lingered enough that the club will give him some extra time to recuperate. Since the move is backdated by a couple of days, he can theoretically return in just over a week if he heals up quickly.

Since the club waited a few days before making this move, it’s possible that it’s not a significant injury and Reynolds will be back after a minimum stint. Nonetheless, it’s an ill-timed development for the club. The Pirates got off to a hot start this year but have fallen on hard times recently and are currently mired in a nine-game losing streak. They will now have to try to pull out of this tailspin without one of their best players.

Since debuting in 2019, Reynolds has hit 82 home runs and has a career batting line of .281/.360/.480 for a wRC+ of 126. He’s been essentially right in line with that production this year, hitting .279/.350/.473 on the season for a wRC+ of 122. He’s also swiped eight bags on the year and has solid marks from advanced defensive metrics for his work in left field.

With Reynolds out of action, the club has a few options available for filling the corner outfield spots next to center fielder Jack Suwinski. They recently recalled catcher/outfielder Henry Davis, who is in right field tonight with Connor Joe in left. There’s also Andrew McCutchen, who has missed a few recent games with an elbow issue but is back in the lineup as the designated hitter tonight. Calvin Mitchell and Josh Palacios are also on the roster and could factor into the mix.

Despite the club’s recent struggles, their 34-39 record has them just five games behind the Reds in the weak National League Central. The Bucs are reportedly open to going into the deadline as buyers this year, though that would surely depend upon them stopping their recent slide and staying relevant in the next five to six weeks. For at least the next week or so, they will have to do so without the contributions of Reynolds.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Exciting Youth Movements in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Bad Central Divisions and the Dodgers Want Pitching

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • the Pirates promote Henry Davis (1:20)
  • the scorching-hot Reds designate Wil Myers for assignment (7:35)
  • Guardians promote Gavin Williams (10:40)
  • White Sox want to sell rental pieces only (16:20)
  • Dodgers need pitching (19:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you think the Cubs will deal Christopher Morel at the deadline? (22:45)
  • What are the chances the Diamondbacks promote Jordan Lawlar later this season? (25:50)
  • If Rangers make a blockbuster trade who would you think it would be? Obviously bullpen is a need but what is something blockbuster worthy? (29:45)

Check out our past episodes!

Pirates Ownership Supportive Of Buyers’ Mentality At Trade Deadline

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The Pirates’ success for much of the season has been one of the surprise storylines of the 2023 campaign. Pittsburgh burst out of the gates with a torrid April, capping off that month by winning 11 of 12 games. They’ve since endured losing streaks of seven and eight games (currently active) but also enjoyed a six-game winning streak in what’s been a roller-coaster performance. All told, the Bucs sit at 34-38, with their recent slide and a corresponding 10-game winning streak from the Reds dropping Pittsburgh to four games back in a feeble NL Central division.

That sub-.500 record might sink them in other divisions. They’re right in the mix in the Central, though, and Pirates president Travis Williams made clear in an interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that with the trade deadline approaching, general manager Ben Cherington will have the support of ownership to pursue upgrades that improve the team both in 2023 and beyond.

Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out the full interview for Williams’ comments on the deadline, the 2023 MLB draft, potential contract extensions and more. By and large, however, Williams stressed that he and owner Bob Nutting will “give [Cherington] the opportunity or the freedom to do what he needs to do” in order to bring about a 2023 postseason berth if the opportunity exists. While the team president went on to say it’d be “silly” to forecast the context of the trade market and the moves his team might make with the Aug. 1 deadline so far down the road, he doubled down that the goal is now to “be a winning team, not only this year but for the long term.”

It’s worth again noting that the Pirates are in the midst of an eight-game freefall in the standings. While they’re currently still easily within arm’s reach of the division, Williams, Nutting and Cherington may well view things differently if the team can’t stop the bleeding and finds itself looking up at a more sizable deficit a month from now. It’s unlikely the Pirates would strike up deals for any rental players if they were eight-plus games out of the postseason chase, for instance. That said, the progress made this year and Williams’ mention of winning beyond the current season would likely still leave the door cracked for the Bucs to add some MLB talent that’s controllable through 2024 and beyond, regardless of the current season’s standings.

As far as potential areas of improvement, the Pirates have any number of avenues to explore. Pittsburgh ranks anywhere from the bottom-third of MLB teams to the middle of the pack club in terms of runs scored (300, 23rd in MLB), home runs, (67, 25th in MLB), rotation ERA (4.34, 16th in MLB) and bullpen ERA (4.41, 24th in MLB). Injuries have taken some of the shine of the team and strained the team’s depth. Shortstop Oneil Cruz underwent ankle surgery on April 10 and isn’t expected back until later this summer. Right-handers JT Brubaker and Vince Velasquez have both undergone season-ending elbow surgery. Relievers Wil Crowe, Jarlin Garcia, Jose Hernandez and Colin Holderman are all on the injured list.

The Bucs appear more set in some areas than others. Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski have locked themselves into outfield spots with strong performances, and Andrew McCutchen is having a resurgent year between designated hitter and right field. The recent promotion of top prospect Henry Davis gives the Pirates three catching options and also puts Davis in position to solidify right field for the time being. Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t hitting as well as hoped at third base, but his elite defense will keep him in the lineup regularly. Infielders Ji Hwan Bae, Tucupita Marcano and Carlos Santana have all struggled to varying extents with the bat, while utilityman Rodolfo Castro has hit fairly well but with shaky glovework.

In the rotation, Mitch Keller has enjoyed a long-awaited breakout — recent slump notwithstanding — while Johan Oviedo and veteran Rich Hill have provided nearly identical 4.30 and 4.31 ERAs, respectively, in a combined 29 starts. Top prospect Quinn Priester could get a look before too long, but the Pirates could certainly use some additional help on this front. In the bullpen, David Bednar has been his typically excellent self. Dauri Moreta and the currently injured Hernandez and Holderman have both filled key roles, too, but it’s been a top-heavy group that’s rotated more than a dozen relievers through the final few spots in the ’pen.

There’s still just under six weeks until the actual trade deadline, and as the recent streaks in both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati illustrate, the standings can change in only a fraction of that time. Still, it’s encouraging for Pirates fans to hear leadership discussing a buyer’s mentality this late into the season. If the Bucs can right the ship and remain in contention, they’ll be looking to add at the trade deadline for the first time since 2018.

Pirates Designate Eli Villalobos, Select Henry Davis

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The Pirates announced they have selected the contract of catcher/outfielder Henry Davis, a move that was reported yesterday. To make room for Davis on the active roster, infielder Mark Mathias was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, reliever Eli Villalobos was designated for assignment.

It’s a little surprising to see the Pirates turn to a DFA as the corresponding move for Davis’ call-up. Starter Vince Velasquez could’ve been transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot after the revelation he’ll miss the remainder of the season (and a good chunk of next year) due to elbow surgery. The Pirates will hold off on a seemingly inevitable IL transfer for Velasquez and take Villalobos off the roster for now.

Pittsburgh nabbed Villalobos off waivers from the Marlins a couple months ago. The right-hander has spent his entire Bucs’ tenure on optional assignment to Indianapolis. He hasn’t performed particularly well, allowing 11 runs (eight earned) in 17 1/3 innings. Villalobos has walked 15 against just 16 strikeouts.

Combined with the six runs he allowed in 4 2/3 Triple-A frames before Miami put him on waivers, he has a cumulative 5.73 ERA with 22 free passes and 23 punchouts in 22 innings at the top minor league level this year. It’s obviously not how he wanted to follow up on a strong 2022 campaign, in which he pitched to a 2.86 ERA in the upper levels of the Miami system to secure an offseason spot on the Marlins’ 40-man roster.

Villalobos, who turns 26 next week, has not yet gotten his first MLB call. He’ll likely be put on waivers within the next seven days.

Dick Hall Passes Away

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The Orioles have announced that former major leaguer Dick Hall has passed away. He was 92 years old.

Hall underwent many transitions in his career, which began as an outfielder and third baseman for the Pirates in 1952. But in 1955, he moved to the mound, tossing 94 1/3 innings over 13 starts and two relief appearances, registering a 3.91 ERA that year. He continued serving as a pitcher for the Bucs and also for the Kansas City Athletics in 1960.

In April of 1961, he was acquired by the Orioles. He would go on to spend most of his career with Baltimore, including his best seasons, gradually shifting into the relief role that he thrived in. From 1961 to 1966, he made 244 appearances for the O’s with a 2.82 ERA over 599 2/3 innings.

That final season of that stretch was the beginning of a golden age of Orioles’ baseball, as the 1966 Orioles went 97-63, led by future Hall of Famers Frank Robinson and Brooks Robinson. They won the American League pennant and then swept the Dodgers to win the first World Series in franchise history, though Hall didn’t appear in that series.

Hall was with the Phillies in 1967 and 1968 as the O’s missed the playoffs in those two seasons. But he returned in 1969 and so did the success of the club. They made it back to the World Series in three straight years beginning in 1969, winning a second title in 1970. He made one appearance in that second title-winning series, tossing 2 1/3 scoreless frames as the O’s topped the Reds. 1971 proved to be his final season in the big leagues.

Hall ultimately pitched 1259 2/3 regular season innings in his career with a 3.32 ERA. He went 93-75 while racking up 68 saves, striking out 741 opponents in the process. He helped the club win four pennants, earned two World Series rings and was elected to the Orioles Hall of Fame. He is survived by his wife, four children, nine grandchildren and nine great-grandchildren. MLBTR joins those in the baseball world in sending condolences to all those mourning him today.

Pirates To Promote Henry Davis

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The Pirates are preparing to call up Henry Davis to the majors on Monday, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link).  Davis is expected to make his MLB debut in the game against the Cubs.

Selected with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft, Davis will be making a pretty quick trip to the majors, though it’s hard to argue that the catcher isn’t ready.  Davis has been crushing the ball at every level, including a .286/.432/.514 slash line over 45 plate appearances at Triple-A.  Though Davis was only recently promoted to Triple-A and has only 10 games under his belt at the top minor league level, the Pirates have seen enough to believe he is ready to contribute in the Show.

The timing of the promotion can’t be overlooked, as if Davis remains on the big league roster for the remainder of the season, he’ll only amass 105 days of Major League service time.  This all but ensures that he won’t achieve Super Two status, and thus won’t gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility.  Given how the Pirates surely feel Davis can be a cornerstone player for years to come, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the small-market team already has an eye on the catcher’s future price tag, assuming he lives up to expectations as a future star.  Finances also factored into the Bucs’ selection of Davis in the first place, as he signed for a $6.5MM bonus that was well below the slot value attached to the first overall pick.

Davis was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the season, with Keith Law (who had Davis 30th), Baseball Prospectus (46th), MLB Pipeline (57th) and Baseball America (73rd) all ranked him amongst the game’s top minor leaguers.  Law cited Davis’ wrist injuries in 2022 and his need to improve against offspeed pitching, but Law was perhaps highest of the pundits on the Louisville product’s potential because Law believes Davis will be able to stick at catcher — far from a universal opinion among scouts.

While Davis has played some right field during his young pro career, that could be less a reflection of his defense than the fact that Pittsburgh also has another top catching prospect in Endy Rodriguez.  Because Rodriguez can also play the outfield as well as second place, there’s a chance that neither of the Pirates’ “catchers of the future” ultimately end up as catchers, though having both players gives the Bucs some flexibility in determining the best path for both players.  Davis’ plus hitting ability makes him valuable wherever he lines up on the field, though it would naturally have the most impact coming from the catcher position.

Austin Hedges and Jason Delay have mostly split catching duties in Pittsburgh this season, with Hedges contributing his usual excellent defense but next to nothing at the plate, while Delay has hit .304/.371/.418 over 91 PA.  Since the Pirates obviously aren’t bringing Davis up to sit him on the bench, it creates an interesting short-term issue for the Pirates in determining which catcher stays.  Delay still has three minor league options so the likeliest scenario is that he is sent to Triple-A while Hedges stays as a glove-first complement and perhaps a defensive mentor to Davis.  Should Davis establish himself as a big leaguer, Delay might become an interesting trade chip for the Pirates to market at the trade deadline.

It’s a whole lot to ask that Davis can provide an Adley Rutschman-esque impact on the Pirates lineup, replicating how Rutschman’s promotion almost instantly sparked the Orioles from rebuilding team to contender in 2022.  However, the Pirates have a 34-35 record but are only 1.5 games out of first place in the NL Central and 3.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Given the compact nature of the National League standings, the Pirates still have a chance of mounting a playoff push, but at the very least the team has already shown that their rebuilding status is over.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Yarbrough, Pirates

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The Cardinals could activate outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the injured list as soon as tomorrow, according to John Denton of MLB.com. Nootbaar, who has been on the IL since the beginning of the month with a lower back contusion, has slashed .266/.380/.390 in 184 plate appearances for St. Louis this season, good for a 118 wRC+.

As discussed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Nootbaar’s return will create something of a conundrum for Cardinals manager Oli Marmol, who has moved Tommy Edman from shortstop to the outfield in recent weeks, a change the switch-hitter has taken well to. Goold suggests that the return of Nootbaar, who can play quality defense in all three outfield spots, would give Marmol the option to shift Edman back to the infield, with Nootbaar taking over center and Nolan Gorman spending most days at DH. Otherwise, Marmol could leave Edman in the center and use Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson in the corners while allowing Jordan Walker, who has struggled to adjust to outfield work after spending most of his minor league career on the infield dirt, to DH.

Whatever defensive alignment the Cardinals end up with, Nootbaar’s return figures to help boost the club as it struggles to stay relevant in the NL Central. Despite an abysmal 29-43 record leaving them 8.5 games back in the NL Central, St. Louis still has a 12.1% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs, thanks to their weak competition in the division.

More from around the Central divisions…

  • Royals left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is set to begin a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League tomorrow, per a club announcement. That’s fantastic news for not only fans in Kansas City, but all around baseball considering the circumstances of Yarbrough’s injury. The lefty was placed on the injured list in early May with multiple head fractures after being struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of Oakland slugger Ryan Noda. Prior to his injury, Yarbrough had struggled badly across ten appearances with the Royals, posting a 6.15 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work.
  • Following today’s news that the Pirates are poised to promote 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis to the majors tomorrow, manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including MLB.com’s Justice delos Santos, that the club’s current catching tandem of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay would remain on the roster. With Pittsburgh planning to carry three catchers as Davis breaks into the majors, it’s worth wondering how the club plans to use Davis. While the youngster was drafted and has been used primarily as a catcher, he’s also started 15 games in right field over the past two seasons while mixing in starts at DH. Of course, the DH slot in Pittsburgh is largely occupied by Andrew McCutchen, leaving right field as Davis’s most likely home on days where Hedges or Delay start behind the plate. Connor Joe and Josh Palacios are currently manning right for the Pirates in a timeshare.

Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency

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With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.

Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:

Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.

That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):

After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.

When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):

While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.

After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.

Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):

The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.

What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):

After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.

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