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Jonathan Villar

Jonathan Villar Switches Representation

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Blue Jays infielder Jonathan Villar has changed agencies and is now a client of Wasserman, Robert Murray reports. He’d previously been with MDR Sports Management. MLBTR has made note of the switch in our Agency Database.

The change in representation comes at a key time for Villar, who’s on the cusp of free agency. He’s on track to join Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Marcus Semien, Freddy Galvis and Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim as some of the most recognizable shortstop-capable players on the open market.

Now 29 years old, Villar has posted quality seasons in the past (including a 4.0-fWAR showing with the Orioles in 2019), but he’s due to reach the open market off a poor campaign. Between Miami and Toronto, the latter of which acquired him before the Aug. 31 trade deadline, the switch-hitting Villar recorded a paltry .232/.301/.292 line with two home runs in 207 plate appearances in 2020. But with 16 stolen bases, it was the fifth straight season in which Villar swiped double-digit bags, and he did continue to flash defensive versatility by accruing well over 100 innings at both middle infield spots.

Blue Jays Acquire Jonathan Villar

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The Blue Jays have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Marlins, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  Villar was pulled from this afternoon’s game against the Mets at Citi Field.  In return, the Marlins will receive right fielder Griffin Conine from Toronto, according to Craig Mish.  Given that Conine is not part of the Jays’ 60-man player pool, he’s considered a player to be named later in this deal, according to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  The move comes on the heels of the Marlins acquiring Starling Marte from the Diamondbacks as the Miami club attempts to return to the playoffs for the first time since their 2003 championship.

Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette was placed on the IL on August 16th with a knee sprain, which is expected to keep him out until at least mid-September.  Rosenthal had previously reported the Jays’ interest in the versatile Villar, and Toronto was also said to have checked in on the Angels’ Andrelton Simmons.  The Blue Jays have already stocked up with trades for Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Dan Vogelbach.  Should Bichette return within a few weeks, Villar can help out around the diamond.

Villar, 29, had an excellent 2019 season for the Orioles.  But with the infielder headed for an $8.2MM salary through arbitration (of which about $1.2MM is still owed this season), the O’s saw fit to ship him to Miami in a December trade.  Due to the shortened season, Villar wound up playing just 29 games for the Marlins.  According to Craig Mish, the Marlins “felt Villar is still an extremely talented player but played reckless at times, and never fully bought in to what they are trying to do.”  According to Mish, Villar was expendable due to Isan Diaz’s return to the club.  Diaz had opted out and is awaiting approval on returning, according to Rosenthal.

The speedy Villar has a few above-average offensive seasons on his record, most recently with a 107 wRC+ last year.  He’s generally not been lauded for his infield defense, however.  He’ll be eligible for free agency after the season, with the Jays serving as his fifth organization.

Griffin Conine, the son of Mr. Marlin Jeff Conine, chose not to sign after the Marlins drafted him in the 31st round out of high school.  He then went to Duke and was drafted by the Jays in the second round, most recently playing A ball in the Midwest League.  Part of the Jays’ run on sons of popular Major Leaguers, Conine was ranked as the club’s #15 prospect prior to the 2019 season by Baseball America.  BA praised his plus power and arm, though Conine did serve a 50-game suspension for testing positive for ritalinic acid.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Among Teams Interested In Jonathan Villar

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Miami and Toronto are in discussions regarding Marlins infielder/outfielder Jonathan Villar, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s unclear whether the two teams are progressing toward a deal, per Rosenthal, though Jon Heyman of MLB Network writes that Villar’s “definitely out there.”

Villar’s the second shortstop-capable player the Blue Jays have been connected to since the weekend, joining the Angels’ Andrelton Simmons. However, Simmons is not an option right now for Toronto, according to Rosenthal. The club’s in the market for help at the position after losing Bo Bichette to a knee sprain two weeks ago. Even if Bichette comes back this year, Villar’s versatile enough to slide to other positions, including second base and the outfield.

Since Bichette went down, the Blue Jays haven’t received much production from fill-ins Brandon Drury, Joe Panik and Santiago Espinal, but they’re still 18-14 and in the thick of the AL playoff hunt. In Villar, they’d be getting a switch-hitting 29-year-old whose offense has hovered around the league-average mark throughout his career. He’s off to a .272/.328/.360 start with two home runs and nine stolen bases in 126 plate appearances this season.

Villar, who’s on a prorated $8.2MM salary, is a pending free agent, so it may make sense for Miami to at least explore parting with him and other veteran trade chips. But even though the Marlins are just 14-15, they’re very much in the playoff race and will enter Monday tied for the final wild-card spot in the NL.

Marlins Notes: Villar, Urena, Outfield, Boxberger

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The Marlins were impressed by Jonathan Villar’s work in center field prior to last week’s abrupt shutdown of Spring Training, writes Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. President of baseball operations Michael Hill tells McPherson that Villar looked “pretty natural” in the outfield, praising the speedster’s reads and his “natural glide to the ball.” The Marlins have “no reservations” about installing Villar as their primary center fielder whenever the season does get underway — a move that’d allow them to slot Brian Anderson in at third base, Miguel Rojas at shortstop and Isan Diaz at second base. Barring an extension, Villar is a short-term addition for the Miami organization. He’ll reach free agency next winter, and a year of even average glovework in center field would substantially bolster his stock, as would an approximation of 2019’s strong .274/.339/.453 slash (with 24 homers and 40 steals).

More notes out of Miami…

  • Jose Urena went from 2019 Opening Day starter to trade candidate to non-tender candidate over the course of a year, but Miami opted to keep him and seems happy to have done so. Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweets that the Marlins were “itching” to see more of the 28-year-old, who revamped his delivery and his slider in the offseason. Urena yielded just two runs on 13 hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 14 spring frames before exhibition play was halted. If he’s able to carry some of that success into the regular season, he’ll quickly emerge as a trade commodity. The Marlins only control Urena through the 2021 season, so their window to move him is narrowing. And his $3.75MM salary makes him affordable for just about any club that has a need to add to the starting staff. Urena missed nearly three months with a back strain in 2019, posted a 5.21 ERA in 82 1/3 innings when on the active roster and at one point lost his rotation spot. But in the two prior seasons, the righty notched a solid 3.90 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 343 2/3 innings.
  • MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro runs through a number of the position battles that were taking shape in Marlins camp prior to the stoppage of play. Notably, Frisaro writes that veteran outfielder Matt Joyce is in line to start about three times a week in right field, with one of Harold Ramirez, Lewis Brinson, Garrett Cooper or Monte Harrison possibly getting the nod on the other side of a timeshare. Veteran Matt Kemp, in camp on a non-roster deal, is viewed more as a potential bench bat. In the bullpen, Frisaro notes that veteran Brad Boxberger (also on a minor league pact) was “tracking toward” a spot on the roster. Mish heard similar things, tweeting last week that Boxberger was “close to a lock” to make the roster as a setup man to expected closer Brandon Kintzler.

Marlins Will Try Jonathan Villar In Center Field

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The Marlins have talked about Jonathan Villar as a potential center field option since the day they acquired him, and manager Don Mattingly confirmed to reporters today that the organization’s plan is to work the speedster out as a potential center fielder this spring (Twitter link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Villar will still get some work in the infield, and the club has other options to fall back on if the results aren’t favorable.

Villar, 29, started six games in center field for the Brewers in 2017 and has only 39 career innings at the position. He’s traditionally been a middle infielder, but with Miguel Rojas penciled in at shortstop, well-regarded prospect Isan Diaz hopefully emerging at second base and Brian Anderson lined up at the hot corner, the Marlins will hope that Villar can make the transition to the outfield.

The situation, of course, is still fluid. Diaz has yet to establish himself as a Major Leaguer, and if he doesn’t show well this spring, a move back to second base could be sensible for Villar. The mix in right field also features several unproven players — Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Jesus Sanchez, Harold Ramirez — so the team could opt to move Anderson back to right field. In that case Villar could also yet be infield-bound. Alternatives in center include Brinson, Harrison, Sanchez, Jon Berti and Magneuris Sierra.

If Villar is able to make the move to center field, he could position himself quite favorably heading into free agency next winter. The switch-hitting Villar batted .270/.338/.438 with Baltimore in 216 games from 2018-19 before the tanking Orioles dumped in late November. Dating back to his first full season in 2016, Villar is a .268/.336/.423 hitter through 2344 plate appearances. He’s been able to provide league-average offense — and more, at times — in addition to excellent baseruning value. If he can add capable center field defense to his resume, that’d serve as a notable boost to his earning power.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Arbitration Breakdown: Jonathan Villar

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Jonathan Villar is projected for a hefty raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility in 2019, thanks to a significant improvement over his performance the prior two years.  Villar hit for a career-high 24 home runs and 73 runs batted in last season, while also hitting .274 and stealing 40 bases.  Villar appeared in all 162 of the Orioles’ games, accumulating 714 plate appearances.  After Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, my model projects him to more than double that amount, with a $5.575MM raise to a $10.4MM salary for 2020.  However, there really are not many useful comparables to work with in Villar’s case.

Very few players with Villar’s service time have similar profiles in terms of home runs and stolen bases. There is only one such player who had more than half as many of each in the last five years — Eduardo Nunez, who also stole 40 bases and hit 16 home runs back in 2016, while batting .288 and knocking in 67 runs over 141 games and 595 PA.  Other than VIllar’s eight extra home runs, Nunez does look similar, albeit with fewer plate appearances (119 less than Villar) and games played (21 less).  Nunez only got a $2.7MM raise, so add in some inflation and the effect of the extra home runs and extra games, and maybe Villar could get close to a $4MM raise, but that is still far short of the model’s $5.575MM raise estimate.

Looking for players with over 700 PA in the last two years, we find Cesar Hernandez from last year and Charlie Blackmon from two years ago, though Blackmon isn’t a comparable since his case relies more on overall hitting numbers than power and speed (.331 average, 34 homers, 104 RBI, 14 steals for Blackmon in 2017).  Hernandez got a $2.65MM raise last offseason coming off a 2018 campaign that saw him post a .253 average, 15 home runs, and 60 RBI, to go along with 19 steals.  This is an obvious floor for Villar, as he should clearly exceed this range.

Also from last year, Didi Gregorius may be a more realistic floor for Villar. He got a $3.5MM raise after hitting .268 with 27 HR and 86 RBI — all similar to Villar — but only stealing 10 bases.  Of course, Gregorius only had 569 PA, far less than Villar’s 714 PA.  Villar should certainly clear $3.5MM as well.

My best guess is Villar gets a raise of around $4MM to $4.5MM.  The model may be estimating high because it is rewarding him heavily for his 714 plate appearances.  Although the model has clearly established that the average effect of more plate appearances really compounds, there may be exceptions in cases like these.  I do not think Villar reaches the $5.575MM raise estimate, so he should land closer to $9MM than the $10.4MM the model forecast.

Marlins Notes: Park Dimensions, Outfield, Catcher, Villar, Aguilar

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Changes are coming to Marlins Park, as the team announced Wednesday that the fences will be moved in and new synthetic grass will be installed prior to Opening Day 2020. “In going through the process of evaluating the playing surface at Marlins Park in 2019, we set out to find a solution to combat the challenges we have experienced with growing natural grass in Marlins Park,” CEO Derek Jeter said in announcing a partnership with Shaw Sports Turf.

As far as the park dimensions, the center-field and right-center field walls will each be moved in by 12 feet, making the distance to straightaway center an even 400 feet, while the right-center power alley will now be 387 feet deep. “We made the decision to adjust the distance of the outfield fence, which will now be more in line with the field dimensions you see across many of today’s ballparks,” said Jeter.

Here’s more out of Miami…

  • The Marlins are looking for free-agent outfielders who are willing to sign one- and two-year contracts as they look to bolster their lineup in 2020, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro lists Avisail Garcia and Yasiel Puig as potential fits for the club, whereas Nicholas Castellanos, another appealing target, is likelier to secure a lengthier pact. Puig, of course, has a long and checkered history with manager Don Mattingly dating back to the pair’s days with the Dodgers, although presumably if talks between the two sides begin in earnest, they’ll work to bury whatever hard feelings (if any) still exist. Garcia, meanwhile, was linked to Miami last week, and the fit makes plenty of sense on paper; MLBTR predicted that Garcia would land with the Fish when ranking our top 50 free agents at the outset of the offseason. Recently non-tendered Steven Souza Jr., too, “will be explored” as a possibility, per Frisaro. The former Rays right fielder missed most of the past two seasons with the D-backs due to injury but topped 30 homers back in 2017.
  • Frisaro also suggests that the Marlins will be in the market for a part-time catcher to pair with Jorge Alfaro, pointing out that free agent Francisco Cervelli and Jeter were teammates when Cervelli first arrived on the scene with the Yankees. The 33-year-old Cervelli’s career has been slowed considerably by concussions in recent seasons — including just a 48-game effort in 2019 due to concussion symptoms — but he hit .259/.378/.431 with the Pirates as recently as 2018 and has been an on-base machine throughout his career.
  • The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times. Jesus Aguilar, meanwhile, will be given ample opportunity to cement himself as the Marlins’ primary first baseman next season, Mattingly suggested. A return to 2018 form for Aguilar, who hit .274/.352/.539 with 35 homers that season, would be a particularly positive development for Miami. Unlike Villar, who is a free agent next winter, Aguilar can be controlled through the 2022 season.

Marlins Acquire Jonathan Villar

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The Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Orioles, as Craig Mish of MLB Network first reported (via Twitter). Lefty Easton Lucas is going back in return.

The Marlins have designated JT Riddle and Tayron Guerrero to create roster space. Previously dropped from the Baltimore 40-man, Villar was projected by MLBTR to earn $10.4MM in arbitration.

Villar enters his final season of arbitration control, so he’s not necessarily a long-term asset for the rebuilding Marlins. That said, it’s not hard to understand the thought process here. Villar has been a productive player the past few seasons, especially in 2019. Last year, he slashed .273/.339/.453 (107 wRC+) while playing in all 162 games for Baltimore. He started 158 of them somewhere on the middle infield. Between that durability, defensive profile and offense (bolstered by elite baserunning), Villar was worth exactly 4 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs. Finding that level of player for around $10MM isn’t easy.

Miami has Miguel Rojas and prospect Isan Díaz ticketed for much of the club’s middle infield work, so it’ll be interesting to see how manager Don Mattingly deploys Villar. Rojas, while a gifted defender, has never hit much, so it’s possible he’ll take on more of a utility role with Villar in the fold. It’d be a bit more surprising to see Villar cut into Díaz’s playing time. Speculatively, though, Díaz has faced some questions about his ability to stick at second base coming up through the minors. Perhaps Miami could look to expose him to other positions as they identify who shapes up as a long-term piece.

Riddle and Guerrero, meanwhile, will head out to make way for Villar and Jesus Aguilar, who was acquired from Tampa Bay on waivers. Riddle, a 28-year-old infielder, has never hit in parts of three seasons in Miami, combining for a .229/.269/.368 slash over 718 plate appearances. Guerrero, also 28, flashed power stuff out of the bullpen but never got quite as many swings and misses as one might expect. With an untenable 13.6% career walk rate, he ran out of leash in Miami.

It’s possible Villar and Aguilar could themselves wind up as trade candidates next season. If they produce, Miami could be motivated to flip them off to a team more positioned to contend in the short-term. Given the low acquisition costs of today’s moves, it’s hard to question the logic.

In Lucas, Baltimore brings aboard a recent 14th round pick out of Pepperdine. GM Mike Elias voiced an expectation that Lucas could someday mature into a back-end starter  (via Roch Kubatko of MASN), but he was not rated among the Marlins’ top prospects. Instead, the decision to waive, and eventually trade, Villar seems motivated almost entirely by a desire to clear his projected salary off the books.

Orioles Reportedly Place Jonathan Villar On Waivers

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The Orioles have placed infielder Jonathan Villar on outright waivers after being unable to find a trade partner for the fleet-footed switch-hitter, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (via Twitter). Villar’s projected $10.4MM arbitration salary apparently served as too substantial a roadblock to overcome when marketing him to other teams.

It’s an extreme cost-cutting measure for the tanking Orioles — one that frankly looks unnecessary. Even with Villar in the fold, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll projects to come in south of $80MM, so it’s not as if there is (or should be) any real pressure to shed salary.

Beyond that is the simple fact that Villar has been a fine player in Baltimore — arguably the organization’s best in 2019. The 28-year-old batted .274/.339/.453 with 24 home runs, 33 doubles, five triples and a whopping 40 stolen bases (in 49 attempts) this past season. Defensive metrics soured on his work at second base but gave him passable marks at shortstop — and Villar does have a track record as a useful glove at second prior to the 2019 season.

Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com valued Villar at four wins above replacement this past season. Clearly the Orioles aren’t the only team in the league that doesn’t value Villar at his current price point — hence the lack of trade interest — but there’s virtually no way off spinning this as a move that makes Baltimore a better team in 2020.

Even if the Orioles reinvest that roughly $10MM sum, there’s little reason that with their current level of financial commitment they couldn’t simply have kept Villar and spent an additional $10MM anyhow. And it’s unlikely that Villar’s eventual replacement will give them superior on-field results. It looks to be a move designed to lose more games next season, and it’s surely a tough blow for a fanbase that has had few quality performances to cheer over the past couple of seasons.

Villar will be available for any club to claim at this point, though the new team would be on the hook for the same projected salary in arbitration. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll surely opt for free agency, at which point he’ll be able to sign with any team for any amount. Given the lack of trade interest in Villar, it’s certainly possible that he will indeed pass through waivers, but he should draw plenty of interest on Major League deals — perhaps even a two-year pact at a lower annual rate. For the Orioles, meanwhile, the optics of letting him go for no return aren’t great, and the move will be tough to sell to the fans.

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