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Royals Decline Jason Hammel’s Option

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The Royals announced that they’ve declined their half of right-hander Jason Hammel’s mutual option, thereby making him a free agent. Hammel will receive a $2MM buyout rather than a $12MM salary for the 2019 season and will hit the open market in search of a new club.

[Related: Updated Kansas City Royals depth chart and payroll outlook]

The 36-year-old Hammel’s two-year pact with Kansas City proved to be a sizable misstep for the organization, as the veteran righty limped to a 5.29 ERA in 180 1/3 innings in 2017 before turning in a 6.09 ERA in 127 frames in 2018. Hammel lost his rotation spot in Kansas City this season and finished the year in long relief for a Royals club that finished last in the American League Central.

Prior to his time in Kansas City, though, Hammel enjoyed a solid three-year run with the Athletics and Cubs. From 2014-16, he tallied 513 2/3 innings of 3.68 ERA ball, averaging 8.3 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched. He saw his strikeout rate deteriorate with the Royals, though, and his ability to strand runners plummeted from roughly league-average territory to one of the worst in baseball with men on base. Those struggles seem likely to make it difficult for his camp to find a guaranteed role on a staff in 2019, but he’ll presumably still be viewed as a low-cost depth option by a number of teams.

Moore On Royals’ Offseason, Future Outlook

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The Royals’ rebuild won’t be a lengthy endeavor if general manager Dayton Moore has his way. The veteran front office exec addressed the media today and covered a number of offseason-related topics (links via Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), making clear that the Royals don’t plan to tank in an effort to improve their farm system.

“I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that’s it’s OK to lose baseball games,” said Moore. “It’s not. … That’s our responsibility — to win games.”

That said, Moore also emphasized that restoring his minor league system to its once-elite levels is the team’s top priority. Several years of picking at the back end of the first round and trades for some veteran players (e.g. Ben Zobrist, Johnny Cueto) have contributed to a depleted Kansas City farm system. The balance of striving for continually increased levels of competition while also seeking to bolster the farm won’t be easy to strike, though, especially not with so many teams throughout the league aggressively gunning for one extreme end of the spectrum or the other.

The Royals are reportedly looking to cut payroll by as much as $30-35MM from their recent record levels of spending, leaving little in the way of budget room for free agents. Much of that payroll paring will be organic, it should be noted. The Royals already saved money by during the 2018 season by shipping out impending free agents like Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, Jon Jay, Lucas Duda and Drew Butera. In 2018, Kansas City was also on the hook for all of Travis Wood’s salary despite having traded him to the Padres in 2017, plus part of their prior obligations to the also-traded Joakim Soria and Brandon Moss.

At present, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and MLBTR projects the Royals at $90.325MM on the books for the 2018 season, including arbitration projections from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz and also including pre-arb players. The Royals seem likely to non-tender Brandon Maurer ($3.1MM projection) and could conceivably cut loose any of Nate Karns ($1.375MM projection), Cheslor Cuthbert ($1.1MM projection), Brian Flynn ($1MM projection) or Jesse Hahn ($1.7MM projection). Jettisoning that whole group would result in an estimated $8.275MM worth of salary off the books, which could create some flexibility to add roster help while still remaining in their reported target range of $85-90MM.

If there’s an area the Royals will add, be it via free agency or via trade, it seems likely to be the bullpen — an area in which Moore bluntly said his team “need[s] better options.” Kansas City relievers posted a disastrous 5.04 ERA on the season as a whole, adding in the lowest K/9 mark of any big league bullpen (7.31), the sixth-highest BB/9 (4.15) and the sixth-highest HR/9 (1.28).

[Related: Kansas City Royals depth chart]

As for the lineup, Moore said he doesn’t expect much turnover, as the team is “prepared to go forward” with in-house options for the most part. To some extent, that’s understandable. Catcher Salvador Perez, upstart shortstop Adalberto Mondesi and second baseman Whit Merrifield are all quality options at their positions. Ryan O’Hearn obliterated right-handed pitching in his late-season promotion and could be paired with Hunter Dozier in a first-base platoon. Alex Gordon rebounded to some degree and is locked into left field with a $20MM salary. The Royals will want to get looks at Brett Phillips, Brian Goodwin and Jorge Bonifacio in the outfield, and Jorge Soler hit well when healthy in 2018.

On the whole, that doesn’t paint an especially promising outlook, though Moore expressed confidence in the manner in which his team finished. Of course, much of the team’s 20-14 record in its final 34 games looks attributable to multiple series against lackluster Twins and Tigers clubs, plus a series against the Orioles and another against the White Sox. It’ll be up to a large group of unproven players to deliver on Moore’s show of faith. If the Royals are to somehow achieve the goal of simultaneously improving on the field and in the farm system, they’ll need numerous players to step forward in the same manner that Mondesi did in 2018, as Moore’s comments don’t indicate that there’s much hope for outside help on the horizon.

Heyman’s Latest: Giants, Mets, DeRosa, Yost, Lux

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Here are some of the highlights from the weekly roundup of notes from Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman…

  • Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold, and former Padres and D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes are under consideration from the Mets and Giants for their general manager positions.  Reports from last summer indicated that Byrnes was likely to stay in his current role as the Dodgers’ VP of baseball ops, though it isn’t known if his stance has changed.
  • MLB Network analyst Mark DeRosa “has been linked” to the Rangers’ managerial job, and Heyman also notes that DeRosa could be a candidate of interest for the Blue Jays as they look for a new dugout boss.  DeRosa has worked as a broadcaster since retiring after the 2013 season, though he has often been potential as a possible future manager, even interviewing with the Marlins in 2015 and the Mets last winter for dugout vacancies.  DeRosa played for both the Rangers and Jays over the course of his 16-year big league career, as well as a brief stint with the Indians (when Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins were in Cleveland’s organization).
  • “The strong belief is that” 2019 is Ned Yost’s last year as manager of the Royals.  Yost hinted at such a timeline near the end of the 2017 campaign, and his recently-announced contract extension only covered the 2019 season.
  • Infield prospect Gavin Lux was the Orioles’ “main target” in the Manny Machado trade talks with the Dodgers. Los Angeles managed to swing the deal without moving Lux, the 20th overall pick of the 2016 draft.  Lux broke out in his third pro season, hitting .324/.399/.514 over a combined 524 PA at the high-A and Double-A levels.  MLBTR’s Jason Martinez recently cited Lux as one of his top minor league performers of 2018, and MLB.com ranked Lux 82nd on its season-ending list of the top 100 prospects in baseball.

Giants Notes: GM Search, Pence, Hundley, Holland

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Some items out of San Francisco…

  • Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold, and Blue Jays VP of baseball operations Ben Cherington have all been linked to the Giants’ general manager position, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  Going into more detail on Cherington, Cafardo believes Cherington’s use of both traditional scouting and modern analytics makes him an ideal all-around candidate for both the Giants and Mets jobs, as Cherington is reportedly also under consideration in New York.
  • Hunter Pence may have played his last game in a Giants uniform on Sunday, but the veteran outfielder tells reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he isn’t ready to retire.  In fact, he said he plans to “reinvent myself” after two unproductive seasons; Pence intends to overhaul his swing this offseason, and is planning a winter ball stint in Mexico or the Dominican Republic.  “I feel strong, I feel healthy, I feel fast. I’m going to work on flexibility and changing my swing completely.  I want to still play. It’s uncertain — hopefully I can find an opportunity, and I’m going to look for it,” Pence said.
  • Free agents Derek Holland and Nick Hundley are both hoping to return to the Giants in 2019, the duo told reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic).  Holland signed a minor league deal last February but will command a much more significant commitment this winter after posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.52 K/BB rate over 171 1/3 innings.  He’d be a nice addition to the Giants’ rotation if the price is right, given how many lingering injury questions remain within the team’s pitching staff.  Hundley has spent the last two years with the Giants as Buster Posey’s backup, and Pavlovic notes that the team would prefer a veteran backup presence behind the plate given that Posey will be recovering from hip surgery.

Central Notes: Mauer, Perez, Bader, Cardinals, Kang, Pirates

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It isn’t yet clear if Joe Mauer will retire or return for the 2019 season, though if Sunday’s game was his last hurrah in the big leagues, it was a special one.  Mauer went 1-for-4 in the Twins’ 5-4 victory over the White Sox, though the most memorable moments included Mauer’s two daughters running onto the field to greet him at first base for the national anthem, as well as one final appearance behind the plate.  Making his first appearance at catcher since 2013, Mauer donned his old gear to catch the first pitch of the ninth inning before being substituted out of the game to a standing ovation from the Target Field fans.  “It’s just been an emotional roller coaster,” Mauer told reporters, including MLB,com’s Jarrid Denney.  “I’m not 100 percent sure [about retiring or not], and like I said, I want to make sure I have time just to take a deep breath and really be behind that decision. But I couldn’t have asked for a better last day of the 2018 season, and I’m looking forward to just taking a breath and spending some time with my girls, my family, and we’ll go from there.”

Here’s more from both the AL and NL Central divisions…

  • Salvador Perez will undergo surgery this week to repair ligament damage in his thumb, as per an announcement from the Royals (Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star was among those to report the news).  Perez said he has been playing through the injury for the last six weeks, and that while he’ll face some rehab time, it won’t keep him from being ready for Spring Training.  “Twelve weeks [off], then start to hit,” Perez said of his immediate timeline.  While Perez hit 27 homers this season, he contributed only a .235/.274/.439 overall batting line in 544 plate appearances, as his bad thumb and a Grade 2 MCL tear suffered in March likely kept him from operating at close to 100 percent all year.
  • Harrison Bader will be the Cardinals’ incumbent center fielder going into 2019, GM Michael Girsch told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch and other media today.  “It’s pretty obvious that he’s the best defensive center fielder we have.  He’s hit more than well enough to earn the first shot at it,” Girsch said.  Bader posted 3.6 fWAR in his first extended stretch of Major League action, hitting .264/.334/.422 with 12 homers and 15 steals over 427 PA, while also displaying outstanding glovework (+23.3 UZR/150, +11 Defensive Runs Saved) over 607 1/3 innings in center.
  • While Bader is in center and Marcell Ozuna has left field spoken for, right field is a less certain area for the Cardinals, despite several options.  The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required) thinks St. Louis could even target Bryce Harper to solidify the position, since the team has the funds to make a big splash in free agency.  That would be an eyebrow-raising signing to say the least, in no small part because the Cards have right field options available, though all have question marks.  Jose Martinez is a poor defender, Tyler O’Neill is unproven as a Major Leaguer despite a promising start, and Dexter Fowler endured an injury-shortened and mediocre 2018 season.  It would likely require trades of both Fowler and Martinez to fit Harper, which would be difficult given Fowler’s struggles and big contract.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington told reporters (including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel) that if Jung Ho Kang returns to the team next season, it will be as a third baseman only.  Forty-nine of Kang’s 187 Major League games have come at shortstop, though it doesn’t appear as though the Bucs have any interest in utilizing him even as a backup.  As to the question of Kang’s $5.5MM club option, the Pirates “have significant interest in seeing if there’s a middle ground” if the option isn’t exercised, Huntington said, though no contractual decision has yet been made.  Injuries and legal issues have kept Kang out of Major League Baseball for almost all of the last two seasons, so it isn’t surprising that the Bucs are seeing if they could bring Kang back at a lower price, given that his market as a free agent could be rather limited.
  • Since Kang isn’t being considered for the backup shortstop role if he does return, Jordy Mercer could be a fit to return as a utility infielder.  Huntington said the Pirates will “keep the door open” about possibly re-signing Mercer and Josh Harrison, though Mercer seems the better bet of the duo to return, as Mercer can fill the part-time role behind Kevin Newman at short.

Ned Yost To Manage Royals In 2019

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The Royals and manager Ned Yost have agreed to a one-year extension, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. The deal is for next season, which will be Yost’s 10th as the Royals’ skipper.

At 58-103, the Royals have already clinched the majors’ second-worst record, but it’s hard to blame that on Yost. The rebuilding club is low on talent, after all, and figures to be in for another lean year next season, when it’s slated to reduce its payroll. That’s apparently OK with Yost, who has the full confidence of general manager Dayton Moore.

“We definitely want him back,” Moore said in April, adding that Yost has earned the right to manage the club for as long as he wants.

While the Royals have gone an underwhelming 687-735 under Yost, who took the reins in 2010, they’ve been resoundingly successful at times during his tenure. The Yost-led team won back-to-back American League pennants from 2014-15 and broke a 30-year championship drought in the latter of those seasons. Kansas City has also posted records of .500 or better in two other seasons during Yost’s reign.

Prior to joining the Royals, Yost managed Milwaukee from 2003-08, a span in which the Brewers logged a 457-502 record.

Past, Present & Future: American League Closer Turnover

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By the end of the 2017 season, the list of pitchers closing out games for their respective teams included Matt Belisle, Alex Claudio, Juan Minaya and Mike Minor. Three of them were without a career save coming into the season—Belisle had five in 13 MLB seasons—and none had been expected to fill a significant late-inning bullpen role. By way of injuries, trades or ineffectiveness from those ahead of them on the depth chart, they were given a chance to record the final out in a close win and proved themselves capable.

Things haven’t changed much this year. Raise your hand if you thought Wily Peralta would have one save in 2018. He has 13! Of the 15 American League teams, only four currently have a closer situation that mirrors what they had on Opening Day. When it comes to closers, uncertainty is the only certainty. And that’s why Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are Hall of Famers and the relief pitchers who will join them in Cooperstown in the future are few and far between.

Here’s a look back at each American League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (Click HERE to view the National League.)

[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]

Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Committee — Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens
September 2018: Mychal Givens

Future Outlook: Brach got the majority of the committee’s save chances prior to Zach Britton reclaiming the job shortly after returning from the disabled list in late June. Soon after, Givens was the last man standing following a series of July trades (Brach to the Braves; Britton to the Yankees). O’Day, meanwhile, suffered a season-ending hamstring surgery and was later traded to Atlanta in a separate deal.

A valuable setup man for most of the past three seasons, Givens has done a fine job since taking over ninth-inning duties. In his last 19 appearances, he has a 2.18 ERA and eight saves in 10 chances. With so many holes to fill on the roster, upgrading at the closer position is probably low on the Orioles’ priority list. Givens, therefore, likely enters 2019 with the job — if he isn’t traded himself this offseason as the O’s continue their rebuilding efforts.

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Boston Red Sox | Red Sox Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Craig Kimbrel
September 2018: Craig Kimbrel

Future Outlook: Kimbrel, who recently became the fourth pitcher in MLB history to record at least 40 saves in five different seasons, has been a huge part of Boston’s historic season. As a free agent following the 2018 campaign, the 30-year-old will command a contract that rivals the highest-paid relievers in the game. Can the Red Sox afford to let him walk? Just in case he does, they’ll have to plan accordingly.

With Joe Kelly also set to become a free agent, Matt Barnes is the logical choice to inherit the closer’s gig. He’s earned the opportunity with a 3.28 ERA and 25 holds while serving as the primary setup man on the best team in baseball. The 28-year-old also has an impressive 13.9 K/9 in 60.1 innings of work, an increase from 10.7 K/9 in ’17 and 9.6 K/9 in ’16. The only question is whether a team capable of winning over 100 games will entrust the role to someone with two career saves. If Kimbrel signs elsewhere, it seems likely that the Sox would pursue alternatives in free agency and/or trades.

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Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Joakim Soria
September 2018: Committee — Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Minaya, etc.

Future Outlook: Soria was as good as he’d been in years, posting a 2.56 ERA with 16 saves and 11.4 K/9 in 40 appearances. The White Sox cashed in by sending him to the Brewers for two pitching prospects in late July. Since then, they’ve handed off the closer’s job to a committee that included just about any relief pitcher on their active roster—seven different pitchers have recorded saves since the Soria trade.

The next step for the rebuilding White Sox is to put together a roster that can, at the very least, be a .500 team and potential playoff contender. Having a reliable closer would be an important part of that plan. Jones looks the part, but he’s missed most of the last two seasons recovering from elbow surgery and still might not be ready to take on the workload of a primary closer. A healthy Zack Burdi, the team’s first-round draft pick in 2016 and one time “closer of the future,” could also be in the mix at some point, though he spent 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery. They’ll likely play it safe, however, and add at least one veteran with closing experience this offseason.

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Cleveland Indians | Indians Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Cody Allen
September 2018: Co-Closers – Allen and Brad Hand

Future Outlook: Allen has a lot of mileage on his arm, averaging 71 relief appearances per season since 2013, and it’s showed at times during the current season. With Andrew Miller on the disabled list and Allen’s ERA creeping up near 5.00, the Indians’ acquisition of Brad Hand from the Padres on July 19th was a no-brainer.

Not only has it helped them down the stretch—Hand has a 2.45 ERA and eight saves while Allen has 10 consecutive scoreless appearances—it also gives the Indians a very good closer option for 2019. Allen and Miller are both headed for free agency while the 28-year-old Hand is under contract through 2021. The job should be his moving forward.

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Detroit Tigers | Tigers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Shane Greene
September 2018: Shane Greene

Future Outlook: With a 5.20 ERA and six blown saves in 37 chances, Greene is probably lucky to have held on to the job for the entire season. But on a rebuilding Tigers team, who is going to close out games for them is the least of their worries. With that said, Greene probably fits best as a setup man. Even if they don’t upgrade this offseason, All-Star Joe Jimenez (11.2 K/9, 22 holds, 3 saves, 2.88 FIP) could supplant Greene in 2019.

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Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Co-Closers – Chris Devenski and Ken Giles
September 2018: Roberto Osuna

Future Outlook: Despite a drop in strikeout rate—8.0 K/9 in ’18; 11.7 K/9 in ’17—Osuna has continued to perform at a high level amid abuse allegations that led to a 75-game suspension under MLB’s domestic abuse policy. The Astros still decided to acquire him in a trade with the Jays despite the ongoing investigation.

Barring any struggles during the team’s playoff run — he’s postseason eligible in spite of that suspension — or any further off-the-field troubles, the 23-year-old Osuna seems likely to enter 2019 as the Astros’ closer. He’s under club control through the 2020 season.

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Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Kelvin Herrera
September 2018: Wily Peralta

Future Outlook: Soon after Herrera was traded to Washington in mid-June, Peralta emerged from the closer committee to become one of the unlikeliest ninth-inning success stories of 2018. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the 29-year-old has 13 saves in 13 chances and a 9.5 K/9 rate.

After getting booted from the Brewers’ rotation last May, he had a disastrous 11-appearance stint as a relief pitcher (17 1/3 innings, 23 ER, 28 H, 15 BB) before getting designated for assignment in late July. He signed a Major League deal with Kansas City this offseason, only to be designated for assignment again and outrighted to Triple-A. He returned to the Majors one day before the Herrera trade and picked up his first MLB save eight days later.

Peralta has a $3MM club option in 2019, which could very well be exercised. Even if it’s not, he’s remain under team control for one more season via arbitration. While he’s been better than anyone could’ve anticipated in his current role, his 22 walks in 31 1/3 innings serve as a red flag that will likely keep the Royals from locking him into the job next season without some form of competition.

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Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Keynan Middleton
September 2018: Ty Buttrey

Future Outlook: Blake Parker, who finished 2017 as the closer, picked up the team’s first save of 2018 after finishing last season in the role. But it was Middleton who got the call for the next six save chances, all successful, making it clear that he was manager Mike Scioscia’s preferred choice in the ninth inning. A few weeks later, however, Middleton had undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery and it was back to the drawing board for the Angels.

Parker got the majority of save chances with Middleton out. And as was the case in 2017, he got the job done with a 3.21 ERA and 13 saves in 16 chances from May 14th—the day after Middleton’s last game— through September 3rd. But Buttrey, acquired from the Red Sox in the July deal for Ian Kinsler, is getting a chance to show what he can do as of late. In six appearances from September 7th through September 18th, the 25-year-old tossed seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and four saves. He has failed to convert his last two save chances, though.

Regardless, there probably wasn’t enough time for Buttrey to seal the job for 2019. He will be a candidate alongside Parker, though, unless the Angels acquire a closer this offseason.

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Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Fernando Rodney
September 2018: Trevor Hildenberger

Future Outlook: After saving 25 games and solidifying the ninth inning for Minnesota over the first four months of the season, Rodney was traded to Oakland in August. Ryan Pressly, who would’ve been the logical choice to succeed him, was traded to Houston in late July. A closer committee appeared likely, but Hildenberger has been the go-to guy with seven saves in eight chances since Rodney’s departure. Taylor Rogers, while serving mostly in a setup role, has not allowed a run over his last 23 2/3 innings while logging two saves and 11 holds over that span.

Between Hildenberger, Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor May, who has five walks and 31 strikeouts in 23 innings in his first season since Tommy John surgery, the Twins have some decent late-inning options for 2019. It’s probably not enough to keep them away from the offseason closer’s market, though.

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New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Aroldis Chapman
September 2018: Co-Closers – Zach Britton and Dellin Betances

Future Outlook: Chapman might not have enough time to reclaim the closer’s job before the end of the regular season—he returned from the disabled list last Wednesday—or even the playoffs for that matter. But there’s no reason to think a change is on the horizon in 2019. The 30-year-old lefty, who is 31-for-33 in save opportunities and is striking out 16.1 batters per nine innings, will be entering year three of a five-year, $85MM contract.

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Oakland Athletics | Athletics Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Blake Treinen
September 2018: Blake Treinen

Future Outlook: Treinen has been one of the breakout stars in 2018, saving 37 games while posting an 0.80 ERA and striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings for a playoff-bound A’s team. The 30-year-old is still under team control for two more seasons, although he’s in line for a significant raise from the $2.15MM he made in ’18. Barring injury, there’s no doubt that he’ll retain the job in 2019.

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Seattle Mariners | Mariners Depth Chart 

Opening Day 2018: Edwin Diaz 
September 2018: Edwin Diaz

Future Outlook: No other closer, arguably, has contributed more to his team’s success than the 24-year-old Diaz, who has 14 more saves (56) than any other pitcher in baseball and 13 more save chances (60). The Mariners play a lot of close ballgames—they are 36-21 in one-run games—and Diaz rarely gives his opponent a chance in the ninth inning. He has held his opponent scoreless in 59 of his 71 appearances and hitless in 44. He also has 41 multi-strikeout games.

The 24-year-old is going to get paid once he reaches arbitration, although he could fall just short during the upcoming offseason. The Super Two cutoff has not fallen under 2.122 (two years, 122 days) since 2009. Diaz will be one day shy of that total.

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Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Alex Colome
September 2018: Co-Closers – Sergio Romo/Jose Alvarado

Future Outlook: When Colome was traded to Seattle on May 25th, the Rays were two games under .500 and 10 games out in the division. It’s not clear whether they were throwing in the towel or whether they just had enough confidence in Romo, who had 84 career saves coming into the season, and the remaining group of young arms. In any case, it’s worked out just fine.

Since the trade, the Rays are 64-44 with Romo as the primary closer (3.38 ERA, 23-for-28  in save chances) and Alvarado, a 23-year-old lefty, also playing an integral role (1.98 ERA, 7 saves). Not that you can count on the Rays to do anything conventional like name a closer prior to the season or at any point during the regular season, but Alvarez and the hard-throwing Diego Castillo would be the leading in-house candidates if they did. Tampa Bay could also look to bring Romo back into the fold.

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Texas Rangers | Rangers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Keone Kela
September 2018: Jose Leclerc

Future Outlook: No relief pitcher has boosted their value more in the second half of the season than Leclerc, who spent the first four months in a setup role. Once Kela was traded to the Pirates on July 31st, it was the 24-year-old Leclerc’s chance to shine. It’s hard to imagine a more convincing way to show that he wouldn’t be relinquishing the job anytime soon.

Aside from converting each of his 11 save opportunities, Leclerc has allowed just two hits and six walks over 17 scoreless innings while striking out 28. The Rangers will look to bolster their bullpen this offseason, but finding a new closer isn’t likely to be on the agenda. Leclerc is controlled through 2022.

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Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Roberto Osuna
September 2018: Ken Giles

Future Outlook: Despite being the primary closer on the World Champion Astros, it was clear  that Giles was not trusted with the game on the line. The trade to Toronto in late July gave the 28-year-old a chance to re-establish himself, out of the spotlight, as a reliable late-inning reliever. So far, so good.

After a few shaky appearances to begin his Blue Jays tenure, Giles has settled into the closer’s role with 1.29 ERA over his past 15 appearances with 12 saves in 12 chances. It might not be enough to prevent the Jays from pursuing another option this winter, but Giles should at least be in the mix.

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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENT CLOSER OPTIONS
Nate Jones (if $4.65MM club option is declined)
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller
Fernando Rodney (if $4.25MM club option is declined)
Sergio Romo
Joakim Soria (if $10MM mutual option is declined)

Royals Reportedly Set For Payroll Reduction In 2019

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The Royals entered the 2018 season with a payroll of roughly $122MM — their fourth straight season with a $100MM-plus payroll — but Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column that the team is expected to pare that figure back by as much as $30-35MM for the 2019 campaign.

Scaling back the payroll isn’t exactly a shock for a club that has been working to rebuild its farm system, though the cut described by Heyman would be a fairly substantial downturn in on-field spending. Unlike the Marlins, though, who slashed payroll to similar levels this past offseason, the Royals won’t have to orchestrate any type of fire sale to do so. They already saved money by trading impending free agents like Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas and Jon Jay prior to the non-waiver trade deadline (plus Lucas Duda and Drew Butera in August). The Royals are also paying Travis Wood, Joakim Soria and Brandon Moss in 2018 as part of previous trades to shed each of those contracts; all of those obligations will be off the books come 2019.

[Related: Kansas City Royals depth chart]

After all those subtractions, the Royals have about $69.5MM on the books for the 2019 season by way of guaranteed contracts for Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez and Jorge Soler. They’ll have several arbitration cases in the form of Brandon Maurer, Nate Karns, Brian Flynn, Cheslor Cuthbert, Jesse Hahn and Paulo Orlando, though some (if not most) of that group could be non-tendered this winter.

It’s unlikely that the Kansas City front office will be able to find a taker for any of the team’s most onerous financial commitments (Kennedy, Gordon), and it seems equally unlikely that the team would sell low on Duffy or Perez coming off lackluster seasons. Perez’s power numbers remain quite strong, but he’s turned in a career-worst .270 OBP to date — third worst among qualified MLB hitters. Duffy, meanwhile, posted a 4.88 ERA through 155 innings in a season that was marred by shoulder issues.

The Royals could organically scale back payroll by as much as $50MM, though it seems reasonable to expect that they’ll invest some funds in second- and third-tier free-agent pickups. They’re not likely to contend next season even with the rampant mediocrity that permeates the AL Central, but GM Dayton Moore has been candid about his desire to improve the on-field product sooner rather than later. To that end, Moore and his staff prioritized near-MLB assets in many of their trades over the past calendar year, landing players like Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Heath Fillmyer, Trevor Oaks and Jerry Vasto. The Royals were also aggressive in the Rule 5 Draft (Brad Keller, Burch Smith) and picked up cast-offs with MLB experience from other organizations (Brian Goodwin, Ben Lively) over the summer.

Adding some low-cost veterans on short-term deals could help to field a more competitive product than the one the Royals trotted out for much of 2018 — and a full season of Adalberto Mondesi won’t hurt, either. Such investments could also present the opportunity to further stock the farm with some upper-level talent prior to the 2019 non-waiver deadline (as was the case with last winter’s Moustakas reunion, which ultimately netted both Phillips and Lopez).

AL Central Notes: Fulmer, Twins, Mondesi, O’Hearn

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Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press examines the aftermath of a brutal season for Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer. The results are hard to deny. As Fenech puts it, Fulmer has gone “from being the most important trade piece of the Tigers’ rebuild … to a missed opportunity.” Of course, there were reasons that the team elected not to move off of the big price tag it placed on the young hurler, as Fenech explores while noting it’d be unfair to use hindsight to say the Tigers “should” have traded Fulmer sooner. As things stand, it seems the Detroit organization will pay Fulmer his arbitration salary for 2019 (as a Super Two) and hope he can regain his standing. After all, he’s still controlled for four full seasons, and a vintage first half or even a strong full season would likely serve to quickly rebuild some of Fulmer’s stock.

Elsewhere in the AL Central…

  • Jake Depue of 1500 ESPN takes a look at some of the 40-man roster decisions the Twins will have to make in advance of the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. Nick Gordon stands out at the most obvious minor leaguer in need of protection, but the Twins will also need to clear roster space for names like outfielder LaMonte Wade, infielder Luis Arraez and relievers Jake Reed and Tyler Jay, among others. However, with four free agents (Ervin Santana, Logan Forsythe, Matt Belisle, Chris Gimenez) and several non-tender/outright candidates on the fringes of the roster at present, Minnesota should have a fair bit of flexibility as that early offseason deadline approaches.
  • Both Adalberto Mondesi and Ryan O’Hearn have been impressing with the Royals lately, Jesse Newell of the Kansas City Star writes. Mondesi, in particular, is the focus of the column, with manager Ned Yost and quality control coach Pedro Grifol (via Yost) weighing in on the improvements in the second-generation infielder’s improvements. “I just think he’s really, really talented,” Yost said of Mondesi, noting that the organization is pleased and feels he’s improved in “all phases of his game.” Mondesi has indeed been a bright spot in a bleak Kansas City season — MLBTR’s Jeff Todd just recently listed him as the primary silver lining for the Royals — as he’s shown a promising blend of speed, power and defense. Mondesi, who homered again tonight, is now hitting .290/.316/.496 with 11 homers, 26 steals and quality defensive marks at both shortstop (+2 DRS, +2 UZR) and second base (+3 DRS, +1.7 UZR). O’Hearn may not have garnered as much attention, but the 25-year-old first baseman is sporting a ridiculous .272/.372/.632 slash and 11 homers through his first 145 MLB plate appearances (albeit while showing some enormous platoon splits in that small sample).

Silver Linings: American League Central

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It’s often difficult to feel positive about a team when it is finishing out a season that won’t end in meaningful games, let alone postseason play. Still, there are silver linings to be found in even the worst campaigns. We’ll tick through every division in the coming days to identify the brightest spots for the non-competitive organizations.

First up is the division most in need of a pick-me-up: the American League Central. With the Indians cruising to a title, the four remaining clubs are all looking ahead to next year. Here’s each of those organizations’ most promising development from the ’18 campaign (with link to current depth chart):

Royals: The Middle Infield

Entering the year, the K.C. organization had a middling outlook up the middle on the dirt. Whit Merrifield had turned in a late-twenties breakout, sure, but could he keep it up? Meanwhile veteran Alcides Escobar was brought back to keep things patched up at short.

As it turns out, though, Merrifield has more than doubled down on his 2017 effort. Entering play today, he was — *checks* — **double-checks** — 25th (!) among all position-players by measure of fWAR. With ample cheap control remaining, he’s a heck of an asset, even if he is already 29 years of age.

Shortstop, though, remained an evident conundrum for much of the year. Enter (okay, re-enter) Adalberto Mondesi. The 23-year-old, whose first MLB action improbably came in the 2015 World Series, is presently carrying a .284/.311/.467 slash with nine home runs and 25 steals in 241 plate appearances. He’s grading as an elite baserunner and high-quality defender at short, making him a potential core piece.

White Sox: Eloy On The Cusp

With apologies to Daniel Palka, Omar Narvaez, and Matt Davidson — nice seasons, all — the most notable development this year for the South Siders has occurred in their minor-league system. Many fans would like to see Eloy Jimenez in the majors right now, finishing off his spectacular campaign in style. Instead, they’ll have to wait until early 2019, though that also means their favorite club will control him for one more precious season.

Jimenez, 21, made good on his top-prospect billing, turning in a monster .337/.384/.577 campaign in 456 plate appearances split evenly between the organization’s top two affiliates. That makes him one of the truly elite prospects in baseball and, quite possibly, the much-needed superstar of the future.

Of course, there was a real shot that this nod would have gone to the pitching staff, but the hurlers just came up short. Michael Kopech’s otherwise promising campaign ended in agony, with Tommy John surgery. Reynaldo Lopez has settled in as a solid, but hardly dominant starter. And while Carlos Rodon’s return has been excellent in terms of results, his peripherals tell quite a different story.

Tigers: Landing Mize

No kidding, having the first pick the draft is a good thing. But it’s not every year — far from it — that a player like Casey Mize is there to be taken. Not only was Mize considered the top talent, he was also likely the most advanced player on the board.

Shades of Stephen Strasburg? The Tigers have reason to hope. He’s already sitting at the #20 spot on MLB.com’s ranking of the top prospects in baseball, to cite but one account of the impact to a Tigers system that has had its share of questions in recent years. Of course, Mize is also now but one of several intriguing young hurlers percolating up toward the majors through Detroit’s minor league ranks.

In a way, though, this is not quite the news you’d hope for. The Tigers’ MLB roster has obviously had its share of good news, including a strong year from Matt Boyd; continued success from Nicholas Castellanos (though he’s just one year from free agency); and the emergence of Niko Goodrum as a useful MLB asset. However, there hasn’t been much else to write home about otherwise at the major-league level. And a concerning season from Michael Fulmer and tepid output from Jeimer Candelario leave some cause for pessimism.

Twins: Encouraging Arms

In numerous ways, 2018 was quite a disappointment for a Minnesota organization that had designs on contention. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton not only failed to improve, but ended up on optional assignment. The team’s slate of short-term veteran signing fell way shy of delivering the anticipated value. Its leading hitter, Eduardo Escobar, was traded away months ago.

But there was one area where things went just about as well as might have been hoped: the team’s group of controllable MLB rotation pieces. Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and Jake Odorizzi have all been worth at least 2.5 fWAR and look to be quality values heading into 2019. Michael Pineda fully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery before being felled by a meniscus tear, so there’s good reason to think he’ll be at full health. And though well-regarded prospect Stephen Gonsalves struggled badly in brief MLB action, he just turned in a strong outing today and was rather dominant at Triple-A, working to a 2.76 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9 (but only 5.7 hits per nine) in 120 2/3 innings. 23-year-old Fernando Romero, a highly regarded young right-hander, gave the team some reason for optimism as well, though his overall numbers are dragged down by one particularly catastrophic start (eight runs in 1 2/3 innings).

It wasn’t all roses in the forward-looking portion of the pitching staff. Ervin Santana’s option doesn’t seem desirable. More worryingly, Adalberto Mejia was cut short due to injury in an otherwise promising season. And it’s not as if the showing from the above-noted hurlers was particularly exciting. More might have been hoped for from Berrios and Odorizzi.

That said, it’s perhaps too easy to dismiss this kind of affordable productivity. Setting a sturdy baseline from the rotation is a notable development, particularly for an organization that must operate within spending limitations.

Of course, finding star-level players is still of greater importance. And there were notable developments there for Minny. While the outlook on Sano and Buxton is nowhere near as promising as it once was, both still have future value. And there’s now a pair of elite prospects rising through the system. Both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both landed among the twenty top minor-league performers in 2018 and are graded among the top twenty prospects in the game (see, e.g., “The Board” at Fangraphs). They’d have represented a worthy recipient of my “silver lining” label, to be sure, but neither is expected to be ready until 2020, so I’m taking the immediate value in the staff.

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