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MLBTR Podcast: Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Eric Hosmer Retires

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First baseman Eric Hosmer hasn’t been on a major league roster in almost a year and has now decided to hang up his spikes. He tells John Perrotto of Forbes that he has now officially retired and is pivoting into the media sphere.

Hosmer, now 34, was one of many high-profile prospects in the Royals’ system, going back almost a couple of decades. The club leaned into a lengthy period of tanking in the early parts of this century, losing at least 87 games in nine straight seasons from 2004 to 2012. Over that time, they were able to pile up young talent in their farm system thanks to some strong draft picks. The deepest part of the rebuild was 2004 to 2007, with the club losing at least 93 games in each of those campaigns, but also getting a top-three pick in the draft for four straight years.

Those four picks were used on Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas and Hosmer. Those players combined with other youngsters like Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Pérez and Yordano Ventura to form a promising young core that the club was hoping to use to return to prominence.

Hosmer hit well on his way up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 10 prospects in the game going into 2011. He made a strong debut that year and showcased some tendencies that would go on to define his career, namely an ability to avoid strikeouts but also an inability to get under the ball. He didn’t walk much either, so the ball was often in play, with his numbers swaying from year to year depending on whether he was finding holes or not.

He only struck out in 14.6% of his plate appearances in his rookie season, well below that year’s league average of 18.6%. But 49.7% of his balls in play were pounded into the ground, noticeably above the 44.4% league average. Regardless, he still hit 19 home runs and slashed .293/.334/.465 for a wRC+ of 113.

In 2012, he suffered through a sophomore slump, hitting just .232/.304/.359 for a wRC+ of 80. Part of that was batted ball luck, as his BABIP dropped to .255 from .314 the year prior. But his grounder rate also ticked up to 53.6% and he only hit 14 homers. These sorts of oscillations continued into the next few years. In 2013, his batting average was up at .302 and he hit 17 homers, but then those numbers dipped to .270 and just nine long balls in 2014.

Despite the challenges for Hosmer in the latter year, the club’s planned return to contention finally clicked in a big way. The Royals went all the way to the World Series that year, though they ultimate were felled by the Giants in seven games. Hosmer was a big part of that run, as he hit .351/.439/.544 that postseason.

Just about everything went right the next year, despite Hosmer still putting 52% of batted balls into the dirt. He also hit 18 homers and slashed .297/.363/.459 for a wRC+ of 124. The Royals went back to the World Series and finished the job this time, taking down the Mets in five games to hoist their first trophy since 1985.

The club slipped near .500 in the next two seasons as the up-and-down performance continued for Hosmer. His bat dipped closer to league average in 2016, though he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2017. His grounder rate was still very high at 55.6%, but he managed to park the ball over the fence 25 times and slashed .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135.

That was excellent timing for a career year, as that was his platform season for his first trip into free agency. Despite the inconsistent performance, the Padres took a chance on him, agreeing to an eight-year, $144MM deal. In addition to the offensive questions, his defensive metrics were never strong, in spite of his four Gold Glove awards while with the Royals. But the Padres had been undergoing their own period of insignificance, having just finished the seventh of what would eventually be nine straight losing seasons. The signing of Hosmer, the largest deal in franchise history at the time, was meant to signal an end of the rebuild and a return to relevance.

Unfortunately, the deal quickly went south, as Hosmer’s bat was around league average for most of his time in San Diego. From 2018 through 2021, he hit .264/.323/.415, translating to a wRC+ of 99. He was often the subject of trade rumors in that time, as the Friars looked to get out from under the deal. He was going to be sent to the Nationals as part of the deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, but Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that allowed him to block the deal. That deal went through with Luke Voit taking Hosmer’s place, though Hoz was  flipped to the Red Sox instead, with that club not covered by his clause. The Padres ate the remainder of Hosmer’s contract, apart from the league minimum, and included a couple of prospects in order to get Jay Groome from Boston.

A stint on the injured list due to some back inflammation limited him to just 14 games with the Sox after the deal and they released him in the offseason to clear a path for prospect Triston Casas. The Cubs took a flier on Hosmer, which was essentially a free look since the Padres were still on the hook for his salary. But he hit poorly in 31 games as a Cub last year, producing a batting line of .234/.280/.330, and was released in May. He didn’t latch on elsewhere and has now decided to officially call it a career.

Though there were some ups and downs, Hosmer still has plenty of accolades on his ledger, including four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star appearance and a World Series ring. He also won the World Baseball Classic with Team USA in 2017. He racked up 1,753 hits in his MLB career, including 322 doubles, 20 triples and 198 home runs. He scored 812 runs and drove in 893. Baseball Reference lists his career earnings just under $175MM. We at MLBTR salute Hosmer on a fine career and wish him the best in his next steps.

Royals Acquire John Schreiber From Red Sox

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The Royals have acquired reliever John Schreiber from the Red Sox in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Kansas City placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Schreiber has a 27.4% strikeout rate over his 143 1/3 career innings in the majors, so missing bats has never been an issue for the 29-year-old.  Between some home run issues and a lot of bad BABIP luck, however, Schreiber had only a 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2019-20, and he pitched in only a single MLB game with the Red Sox in 2021.  The breakout came in 2022, as Schreiber had a 2.22 ERA over 65 relief innings for Boston while also delivering a 28.8% strikeout rate and an above-average 7.4% walk rate.

2023 was more of a challenge, in no small part because Schreiber spent time on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain in his right shoulder.  Schreiber still posted a respectable 3.86 ERA over 46 2/3 innings and had strong strikeout and barrel rates, though his walk rate spiked up to an ungainly 12.3%.  The sinker that was such a weapon for Schreiber the previous season was also less effective — batters had a .395 wOBA against his sinker in 2023, as opposed to a .245 wOBA in 2022.

An argument can certainly be made that the Red Sox might be selling high on Schreiber here, though it’s a risk Kansas City is willing to take for a reliever who is a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday and is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Schreiber had a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings before his IL stint and a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings after returning, so the Royals might view the righty’s struggles as just a byproduct his injury layoff.  Should Schreiber get back to his 2022 form, K.C. suddenly has a big strikeout arm to deploy in high-leverage situations.

Today’s trade continues a very busy offseason for Royals GM J.J. Picollo, who has brought quite a bit of veteran talent to Kansas City in an effort to quickly turn around a team that lost 106 games last season.  Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were the headline-grabbing rotation upgrades, but Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and now Schreiber have all joined a reworked bullpen.  Schreiber is a bit more of a longer-term add given his years of arbitration control, yet the Royals have put themselves in a position to either directly benefit on the field if these pitchers perform well, or to perhaps benefit in terms of having some trade chips at the deadline if K.C. again falls short of contention.

From Boston’s perspective, moving a solid reliever from Schreiber might not be well received at first by Red Sox Nation, given how the fans have been vocally unimpressed with the team’s moves (or lack thereof) this offseason.  Craig Breslow has made a lot of lateral moves in his first winter as the chief baseball officer, continuing the franchise’s recent bent towards adding younger talent rather than splurging on win-now stars.

Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings.  An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh.  Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider.  If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reported earlier this week that the Sox were open to offers for not just Schreiber, but also Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin.  With Schreiber now out the door, it remains to be seen if Boston is still willing to move either of Jansen or Martin, or if the Sox will stop short of a full-on bullpen overhaul.  Jansen or Martin are both free agents after the season and will be prime trade candidates at the deadline if the Red Sox aren’t in contention, so there has been speculation that the Sox might look to increase their return (and cut some salary) by dealing at least one of the veteran relievers now.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Jesús Luzardo

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The starting pitchers of the Marlins have been popular in trade rumors and the Orioles showed the most interest in left-hander Jesús Luzardo, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’s unclear exactly when the trade talks took place.

The Orioles have been looking for starting pitching all offseason so it’s logical that they would check in with Miami. The O’s were connected to trade candidates like Dylan Cease and free agents like Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton before landing a big fish when they acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.

From the perspective of the Marlins, they don’t quite have the overflowing rotation surplus that they have had in the past, but it makes sense to listen to offers since they have holes elsewhere on the roster that need to be addressed. Catcher and shortstop are those spots that could clearly be upgraded but free agency doesn’t have many enticing options, so perhaps moving a starter would be their best bet even if the depth isn’t quite what it was.

They traded Pablo López to the Twins last winter as part of the return for Luis Arráez and then Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 campaign. Additionally, they traded prospect Jake Eder to the White Sox for Jake Burger, thinning out the depth a bit.

After all that, the club’s rotation mix currently consists of Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, with Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers and Meyer are some of the other options on the roster.

That group has its question marks. Cabrera gets tons of strikeouts and ground balls but has also walked 14% of batters faced in his career. He’s now out of options and can no longer be sent to the minors to continue refining his command. Rogers was great in 2021 but his results backed up in 2022 and then he was limited by injuries in 2023. He made four April starts last year before going on the injured list due to a left biceps strain, later being diagnosed with a partial tear in his right lat, never making it back to the club. Sánchez has thrown just one minor league inning over the past three years due to ongoing shoulder problems. Weathers had poor results last year while Meyer missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Marlins are reportedly setting a high asking price in trade talks concerning Luzardo, which is a sensible position to take. With that group of starters, they don’t strictly need to move someone since it’s arguably flimsy as it is. Luzardo is also under club control through the 2026 season, meaning the club needn’t be in any kind of hurry. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more arbitration raises in the seasons to come. That’s a bargain price for a guy who made 50 starts over the past two years with a 3.48 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate.

Cabrera and Rogers have also received some trade interest, but the asking price on them would naturally be lower on account of the Cabrera’s control problems and Rogers’ injury issues. Jackson and Mish add that the Marlins and Royals had talks about some kind of blockbuster involving Pérez and Bobby Witt Jr. but those talks quickly fizzled out. Those talks were towards the end of last season, while Kim Ng was still running the baseball operations department. Jackson and Mish report that the new regime, led by Peter Bendix, considers Pérez untouchable.

But with the holes elsewhere on the roster, there would be an argument for taking the right deal. The Marlins reportedly asked about catching prospect Samuel Basallo in trade talks with the Orioles, but the O’s had no interest in making him available. Part of Baltimore’s never-ending parade of elite prospects, Basallo is currently ranked 10th in the league by Baseball America and 7th by FanGraphs.

The Marlins currently have a catching tandem of Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes. Both are fairly well regarded on defense but don’t provide a lot with the bat. Bethancourt hit .231/.261/.361 last year and Fortes just .204/.263/.299. The 19-year-old Basallo would be more of a long-term solution there, as he only has four games above High-A and is unlikely to crack the majors for much of 2024, if at all.

The Orioles could also theoretically stand to part with Basallo since they already have a cornerstone catcher in Adley Rutschman, but that doesn’t seem like it will motivate them towards a deal. They also have a surplus of young talent on the infield and outfield but have generally held onto the majority of it, apart from including Joey Ortiz in the Burnes deal. They still seem to have too many players for the playing time they have to distribute but appear to be quite patient in letting moves come together.

As mentioned, it’s unclear exactly when the talks regarding Luzardo took place. Presumably, they were before the Burnes deal, but there would have been an argument for the O’s to still be pursuing rotation upgrades even after that. After that trade, the rotation projected to be Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and John Means. That’s a talented group but Rodriguez was inconsistent as a rookie last year while Means just returned from a lengthy Tommy John layoff. Adding Luzardo into that group would have been a viable path for the O’s to take, so it’s possible the talks happened post-Burnes, even if they didn’t make much headway.

It’s possible that their desire to get a deal done may have increased this week, however. It was reported today that Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, raising the spectre of Tommy John surgery. It’s still not determined if he will need to go under the knife but he will at least start the season on the injured list. Additionally, Means is about a month behind schedule due to an elbow issue he dealt with last year.

With two-fifths of their projected starting rotation now questionable, perhaps the O’s will circle back to the Marlins and reopen these talks at some point. Though the free agent market also still features notable names like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Meanwhile, Cease is still on the White Sox while other trade candidates like Shane Bieber or Paul Blackburn could still be available. Even after the Burnes trade, the O’s are still considered to have an excellent farm system and could pull off just about any trade they decide to make if they really wanted.

Royals To Reveal Plans For Proposed New Park

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The Royals are set to reveal plans for a new stadium in Kansas City’s Crossroads District tomorrow, according to reports from Anne Rogers of MLB.com (on X) and Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star. The club is holding a press conference at 2:30 pm local time. “Important details about this transformative project will be shared including renderings, economic data, and progress towards lease and community benefits agreement,” the team said (via Rogers).

McDowell writes that the targeted site is in the approximate area of the former Kansas City Star Press Pavilion. The team has not yet revealed its specific financing plan, but they’re seeking some amount of public funding via a 40-year sales tax that’ll be up for a vote in early April. That tax plan would split the money between the Royals for their intended new facility and the NFL’s Chiefs for renovations to its Arrowhead Stadium.

The Royals’ current home, Kauffman Stadium, was opened in 1973. It’s the sixth-oldest park in MLB. Fenway Park and Wrigley Field have been open for more than a century. Dodger Stadium (1962), Angel Stadium (1966) and the Oakland Coliseum (1968) each began playing host to big league clubs in the general vicinity of Kauffman’s opening. The A’s are very likely to depart the Coliseum after the upcoming season. If the Royals secure a new ballpark, that’d put Toronto’s Rogers Centre — which opened in 1989 — among the sport’s five oldest home stadiums.

Last summer, owner John Sherman told reporters that the team was hopeful of having a new park ready for the 2027 or ’28 seasons (link via The Associated Press). Sherman purchased the franchise from the late David Glass in August ’19.

The club has yet to find any on-field success during his ownership tenure, which began amidst a rebuild on the heels of their consecutive pennants and 2015 World Series win. Last season’s 106 losses tied a franchise record. The Royals have had an active offseason as they try to turn things around fairly quickly. They’ve brought in Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Adam Frazier in free agency. They saved their biggest move for last week, inking franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to a team-record guarantee in excess of $288MM to ensure he remains in K.C. through at least 2030.

Latest On Kris Bubic

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  • Kris Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery last April, and the Royals southpaw told Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star that he is now about 10 days away from his first bullpen session.  Bubic expects to return around the middle of the season given the usual TJ recovery timeline, and he is taking the opportunity during his rehab to make some mechanical changes, as well as looking forward to continue work on developing a slider as a new pitch in his arsenal.  Bubic was the 40th overall pick of the 2018 draft, and is one of several well-regarded Royals pitching prospects who have yet to really break out at the big league level, thus greatly hampering Kansas City’s rebuild efforts.  The Tommy John procedure provided yet another obstacle for the 26-year-old Bubic, who has a 4.85 ERA over 325 career Major League innings.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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28 out of the 30 clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, with the Padres and Braves the only exceptions. That means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days.

Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, as the 60-day injured list comes back when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, having gone away shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. This year, the Dodgers and Padres will have an earlier reporting date, due to their earlier Opening Day. Most clubs will begin their 2024 campaign on March 28, but those two clubs are playing a pair of games in Seoul on March 20 and 21. The official 60-day IL dates, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, are February 8 for the Dodgers, February 11 for the Padres and February 14 for every other club. It’s fairly moot for the Padres since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now, but the Dodgers could be moving guys to the IL as soon as today.

It’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. Transferring a player to the 60-day IL also requires a corresponding move, so a club can’t just make the move in isolation.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall, Brandon Belt and many more. A player like Brandon Woodruff, who is expected to miss significant time and will need an IL spot himself, might be better able to secure a deal once IL spots open up. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

NL West

Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson

Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. He will almost certainly spend the entire 2024 season on the IL.

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Nick Frasso

Kershaw is not officially signed yet, with his physical reportedly taking place today. It doesn’t seem as though it’s a coincidence that today is the first day the club can move players to the IL. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected back until late in the summer. Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in August and may miss the entire campaign. May had surgery in July to repair his flexor tendon as well as a Tommy John revision. He is expected to return at some point midseason. Frasso underwent labrum surgery in November and may miss the entire season.

Giants: Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb

The Giants acquired Ray from the Mariners in a trade last month, knowing full well that he underwent Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair in May of last year. He recently said that a return around the All-Star break would be a best-case scenario. Cobb underwent hip surgery in October and isn’t expected back until May at the earliest. His is a more of a borderline case since placing him on the IL would prevent him from returning until late May.

Padres: Tucupita Marcano

Marcano underwent ACL surgery in August of last year while with the Pirates. The Padres claimed him off waivers from the Bucs in November. Recovering from an ACL surgery usually takes about a year or so, meaning Marcano is likely to miss a decent chunk of the upcoming campaign. But as mentioned earlier, the Friars only have 36 players on their 40-man right now, meaning there’s no rush to get Marcano to the IL and open up a roster spot.

Rockies: Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Lucas Gilbreath

All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Gilbreath may be the closest to returning, as he went under the knife back in March. Márquez and Senzatela underwent their surgeries in May and July, respectively. General manager Bill Schmidt said recently that the club is hopeful Márquez can be back after the All-Star break but is anticipating Senzatela to miss the whole campaign.

NL Central

Brewers: None.

Cardinals: None.

Cubs: None.

Pirates: JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodríguez,

Brubaker and Burrows both underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s possible they could be ready to go early in the upcoming season, as some pitchers return around a year after going under the knife. But most pitchers take 14 months or longer so their respective rehabs may push deeper into the upcoming season. Oviedo also underwent TJS but his was in November, meaning he’ll certainly miss the entire 2024 season. The same goes for Rodríguez, who underwent UCL/flexor tendon surgery in December.

Reds: None.

NL East

Braves: Ian Anderson, Penn Murfee, Ángel Perdomo

Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was on optional assignment at the time and spent the whole year on the minor league injured list. He could be placed on the major league IL this year if the club needs a roster spot, but they only have 37 guys on the 40-man as of today. Murfee underwent UCL surgery while with the Mariners in June of last year. The Braves signed him to a split deal even though he isn’t likely to be a factor until midseason. Perdomo also got a split deal despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of last year, meaning he will miss all of 2024. Since Murfee and Perdomo signed split deals, the club might try to pass them through waivers at some point rather than transferring them to the IL.

Marlins: Sandy Alcántara

Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will have to miss the entire 2024 season.

Mets: Ronny Mauricio, David Peterson

Mauricio just suffered a torn ACL in December and will almost certainly miss the entire 2024 season. Peterson underwent hip surgery in November with a recovery timeline of six to seven months, meaning he won’t be able to return until May or June.

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Cade Cavalli, Zach Brzykcy

By all accounts, Strasburg will never be able to return to the mound due to nerve damage stemming from his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome. He and the Nats had a deal for him to retire but it reportedly fell apart due to some sort of squabble about his contract. His deal runs through 2026 and he may spend the next three years on the IL unless those retirement talks can be revamped. Cavalli had Tommy John surgery in March of last year, so he could return relatively early in the upcoming campaign. The Nats will probably only move him to the 60-day IL if they don’t think he can return before June. Brzykcy underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was added to the club’s roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Phillies: None.

AL West

Angels: José Quijada

Quijada underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will miss some portion of the 2024 season. He’ll likely wind up on the 60-day IL unless the club expects him back within about a year of going under the knife.

Astros: Kendall Graveman, Luis García, Lance McCullers Jr.

Graveman recently underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. García underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will have to at least miss some of the upcoming campaign. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend upon how his rehab is progressing. McCullers underwent flexor tendon surgery in June and isn’t expected back until late in the summer.

Athletics: Ken Waldichuk

In December, it was reported that Waldichuk is rehabbing from a flexor strain and UCL sprain. He and the club opted for a non-surgical approach involving a Tenex procedure and PRP injection. As of reporting from this weekend, he still hasn’t begun throwing. His situation will likely be monitored in the spring to see how his rehab proceeds.

Mariners: None.

Rangers: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Carson Coleman

deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is targeting a return this August. Mahle underwent the same procedure in May and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, knowing he likely won’t be able to return until midseason in 2024. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and won’t be able to return until June or July. Coleman was a Rule 5 selection of the Rangers, taken from the Yankees. He had Tommy John in April of last year and will likely still be rehabbing for the early parts of the upcoming campaign.

AL Central

Guardians: Daniel Espino

Espino underwent shoulder surgery in May of last year with an estimated recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

Royals: Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright, Josh Taylor

Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will have to miss at least some of the 2024 season. Whether he winds up on the 60-day IL or not will depend if the club thinks he can return before June. Wright underwent shoulder surgery while with Atlanta last year and will miss all of 2024. The Royals acquired him in a trade, hoping for a return to health in 2025 and beyond. Taylor was already on the IL due to a shoulder impingement in June of last year when he required surgery on a herniated disc in his lower back. His current status isn’t publicly known.

Tigers: None.

Twins: Josh Staumont

Staumont underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July of last year while with the Royals. He was non-tendered by the Royals and then signed by the Twins. His recovery timeline is unclear at the moment.

White Sox: Matt Foster, Davis Martin

Both of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year, Foster in April and Martin in May. They could perhaps return early in the season if their rehabs go especially well, but they also might need to continue rehabbing until midseason.

AL East

Blue Jays: None.

Orioles: Félix Bautista

Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October of last year and will miss the entire 2024 season.

Rays: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Taylor Walls

Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He could be a factor in the early months of the season if his rehab is going well, as some pitchers can return after about a year, but he also may need a bit more time. McClanahan underwent the same procedure but in August and will likely miss the entirety of the upcoming season. Rasmussen was dealing with a flexor strain last year and underwent an internal brace procedure in July, which will keep him out until midseason. Walls underwent hip surgery in October and is more up in the air as there’s a chance he’s ready as soon as Opening Day, depending on how his rehab goes.

Red Sox: None.

Yankees: Jasson Domínguez

Domínguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. The return for hitters is generally shorter than pitchers, but the Yanks estimated his return timeline as 9-10 months, which will still keep him on the shelf until midseason.

MLBTR Podcast: The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Royals Sign Bobby Witt Jr. To 11-Year Extension

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The Royals are retaining their franchise shortstop well into the next decade. Kansas City announced the signing of Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year extension on Monday afternoon. The Octagon client is reportedly guaranteed nearly $288.78MM on the largest contract in team history. Witt has multiple chances to opt out of the deal, as he’ll be able to test free agency after the 2030, ’31, ’32 and ’33 seasons. If he doesn’t exercise any of those opt-out clauses, the Royals would receive a three-year team option after the ’34 campaign. That’s an $89MM provision covering the 2035-37 seasons, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $377MM over 14 years. Witt has a full no-trade clause.

Witt receives a $7.777777MM signing bonus. The salaries break down as follows:

  • 2024: $2MM
  • 2025: $7MM
  • 2026: $13MM
  • 2027: $19MM
  • 2028: $30MM
  • 2029-34: $35MM annually
  • 2035: $33MM
  • 2036-37: $28MM annually

It’s a stunning deal that more than triples the previous franchise-record, which was the $82MM extension signed by Salvador Pérez in March of 2021. It was reported back in November that Witt and the club had engaged in some preliminary talks but it would have been fair for fans to be skeptical of anything getting done. The club’s payroll has never been higher than 15th in the league in recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, making it hard to predict them for any kind of mega deal.

Witt is still fairly early in his career, having just two years of service time and not yet qualifying for arbitration. But even pre-arb deals for superstar players have grown to a massive scale in recent years. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the Brewers gave Jackson Chourio $82MM before he even reached the majors. Players like Julio Rodríguez and Corbin Carroll got to $210MM and $111MM, respectively, before even getting to one year of service time. Witt has exactly two years of service, having cracked the club’s Opening Day roster in 2022. The apex for players between two and three years of MLB service is the 14-year, $340MM extension between the Padres and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Given those escalating prices and the typical low-spending ways of the Royals, it was difficult to see the two sides coming together and getting a deal done. But the Royals have extended well beyond their comfort zone, shattering their previous franchise record. For Witt, he didn’t quite get the same guarantee as Tatis but he could end up earning more than him via that option. The opt-outs also give him extra earning power, either by allowing him to test the open market or by leveraging those opt-outs into future contract talks with the Royals.

The fact that the Royals were willing to go to such extreme lengths is a reflection of Witt’s incredible talents as a player. The second overall pick in the 2019 draft, behind only Adley Rutschman of the Orioles, Witt showed his potential with a solid rookie showing in 2022. As mentioned, he cracked the club’s Opening Day roster, and eventually appeared in 150 games that year. His 4.7% walk rate was on the low side, but he limited his strikeouts to a 21.4% clip while launching 20 home runs. His .254/.294/.428 line was just a bit below average, wRC+ of 98. He also stole 30 bases, though his glovework wasn’t highly rated, split between shortstop and third base.

Last year, he took steps forward in just about every respect of his game. He decreased his strikeout rate to 17.4% while bumping his walk rate slightly to 5.8%. His home run tally jumped from 20 to 30 and he increased his steal tally to 49. His .276/.319/.495 batting line led to a wRC+ of 115, indicating he was 15% better than league average at the plate.

On the defensive side of things, he stayed at shortstop all year and seemed to cement himself as a viable franchise cornerstone there. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t too enthused, giving him a grade of -6, but that was still an upgrade over the -18 he was tagged with at shortstop the year before. But Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a positive grade of 3.2 in 2023 while his tally of 14 Outs Above Average was one of the best in the league. Only Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames and Ezequiel Tovar racked up more OAA among shortstops last year.

That combination of offense, speed and defense makes him one of the most exciting and valuable players in the league. His 5.7 wins above replacement via FanGraphs was 11th among all position players last year and he finished seventh in American League Most Valuable Player voting.

It’s been a rough few years for the Royals, as they just lost 106 games last year and haven’t been above .500 since 2015. But it seems there has been a concerted effort this winter to give the fans more reasons to be excited. The club has given significant deals to free agents like Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Will Smith and Chris Stratton in an effort to improve the club’s chances in 2024. Witt was already on the roster and this deal won’t alter the club’s fortunes in 2024, but it does send a strong message that they are willing to commit to a player they feel can be the face of the franchise for years to come.

Owner John Sherman only purchased the team towards the end of 2019 and things have been fairly dreary for the franchise since then, as they have struggled to emerge from a lengthy rebuild. But the club has been trying to secure government funding for a new stadium and perhaps this offseason’s spending is an attempt to build some good will between ownership and a fanbase that hasn’t had much to cheer about lately.

Regardless of the motives, it’s a massive deal and surely an exciting one for the supporters. Witt is one of the most talented players in the league and he’ll now be locked into the Kansas City lineup for the foreseeable future. His first opt-out chance will come after 2030, which will be his age-30 campaign. At that point, he’ll be deciding whether to stick around or leave four years and $140MM on the table to become a free agent. Assuming he continues to perform at a superstar level, that would be a fairly easy decision. He could likely double that even with today’s dollars and seven years of inflation would only help him. But it seems that he and the club have a good relationship, so perhaps another deal could be worked out to keep him with the Royals at that point.

“I am incredibly grateful to the Sherman family and the Royals front office for believing in me,” Witt said on X today, “and I promise to do everything in my power to help bring championship baseball back to Kansas City! Let’s go!!”

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals and Witt were in agreement on an 11-year, $288.8MM deal. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported the deal included a three-year team option. Passan reported the inclusion of opt-out clauses after years seven, eight, nine and ten; Passan was also first to report the $89MM value of the three-year option as well as the $7.78MM signing bonus. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the specific salary breakdown. FanSided’s Robert Murray had reported on Sunday that the Royals and Witt had reopened extension talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relayed the full no-trade clause.

Picollo On Roles For Massey, Frazier

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The latest move in a busy Royals offseason brought veteran second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier to Kansas City on a one-year deal. Though Frazier has a long track record as an everyday player, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo suggested following the signing that Michael Massey will still be the regular second baseman, with Frazier operating in more of a utility role (link via Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star).

“[Massey] needs to be a big part of our team, and we shared that with [Frazier] last week,” Picollo stated. The second-year K.C. GM stressed the importance of being up-front with a veteran like Frazier about the role he’d likely be stepping into. That, it seems, won’t be an everyday one. Picollo noted that with his defensive versatility, Frazier “can protect us, so to speak, in a lot of ways.”

Massey, who’ll turn 26 in March, has logged significant big league time in each of the past two seasons but has yet to solidify himself as a productive big league hitter. Selected by the Royals in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, Massey breezed through the minors. He’s a .293/.355/.503 hitter in the minors overall, and he slashed an impressive .312/.371/.532 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 before getting his first call to the big leagues.

Unfortunately for both Massey and the Royals, that level of output hasn’t carried over to the big leagues. The lefty-swinging second baseman has appeared in 181 games over the past two seasons and turned in a middling .233/.284/.379 slash. Massey didn’t walk at prolific rates in the minors, but his 5.2% walk rate in 655 MLB plate appearances is clearly lacking. He’s popped 19 home runs and struck out at a slightly lower-than-average 21.5% clip, but his 88.8 mph exit velocity and 38.7% hard-hit rate are both a bit shy of league average.

To his credit, Massey improved down the stretch in 2023. His second-half batting line of .237/.271/.434 still sits well below average, but he cut his strikeout rate from a glaring 28.2% in 200 first-half plate appearances to 15.4% in 228 second-half trips to the plate. Massey reduced his chase rate on pitches off the plate, greatly improved his contact rate on pitches within the zone and generally swung through fewer pitches. The overall quality of his contact didn’t improve much, but the frequency of it did. Were it not for a .238 average on balls in play in that stretch of 228 plate appearances, the second half of his season would likely look a whole lot better.

The 2024 season will be an important one for Massey. He’s still relatively young, heading into his age-26 season, but with another year of comparable production to what he’s already displayed at the MLB level, it’ll be far more difficult for the Royals to continue with him in a prominent role. To that end, that’s one of the areas in which Frazier affords the team some of the “protection” mentioned by Picollo. Frazier’s own production has dropped off since his Pirates days, but last year’s .240/.300/.396 is better across the board than Massey’s was.

Frazier also offers some protection against an uncertain outfield group. MJ Melendez is another once-promising Royals farmhand who’s yet to hit in the big leagues. Free agent signee Hunter Renfroe hits lefties far better than righties. The hope is surely for him to patrol right field on an everyday basis, but if Renfroe struggles, Frazier does have nearly 400 career innings in right field. He also provides the Royals with injury depth for each of Massey, Melendez and Renfroe.

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