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Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Royals-centric chat tomorrow morning at 9am CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Royals haven’t had a winning record since their storybook World Series victory back in 2015. Their first season in the wake of Dayton Moore’s firing as president of baseball operations yielded more of the same dismal results. They’ve now lost 100-plus games in three of the past six seasons, and it’ll be incumbent upon J.J. Picollo to turn things around in his second year atop the baseball operations hierarchy.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C/DH: $44MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Jordan Lyles, RHP: $8.5MM through 2024
  • Jake Brentz, LHP: $1.05MM through 2024 (Brentz will remain arb-eligible through 2026)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

While last offseason brought about sweeping change with the firing of Moore and hiring of manager Matt Quatraro, the 2023-24 offseason should be quieter in terms of such big-picture machinations. Picollo won’t be supplanted one year into his tenure, and the Royals aren’t going to move on from Quatraro after one tough season. It’s possible that Picollo will continue to make changes further down the baseball operations ladder, however. One such move is already in place, as The Athletic’s Keith Law recently reported that Kansas City is hiring former Braves scouting director Brian Bridges. Holding that position from 2015-18, Bridges oversaw high-profile selections of talents like Austin Riley, A.J. Minter and Michael Soroka, in addition to some late-round bullpen finds like Evan Phillips and Jacob Webb.

Improvements in the scouting and draft process are a long-term play, of course. In terms of more immediately righting the ship in Kansas City, there’s no shortage of work to do. Royals starting pitchers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA (5.16) and fifth-fewest innings (760 1/3). That ERA is practically an identical match with a 5.15 team bullpen ERA that ranks 28th in MLB.

At the plate, the Royals are 24th in the Majors with 651 runs scored. Their collective 6.9% walk rate is second-worst among all MLB teams, and Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of batting average (.243, 21st in MLB), on-base percentage (.302, 27th), slugging percentage (.396, 23rd) and home runs (156, 26th).

Complicating this year’s dismal across-the-board performance is the fact that the Royals were relying heavily on young players they hope (or hoped) can bring the team back to relevance in the near future. Many of those players largely failed the test.

Bobby Witt Jr. has proven himself to be a cornerstone player at shortstop, belting 29 homers and swiping 48 bases while playing premium defense. Third baseman Maikel Garcia hasn’t hit for power — nor was he projected to — but has swiped 23 bags and played good defense at the hot corner. He’s put the ball in play enough to help overcome a below-average walk rate and looks like he can have a long-term role in the infield, be it as a regular or as someone who eventually shifts to a heavily used utility player between third base, shortstop and second base. Assuming Vinnie Pasquantino’s recovery from surgery on a torn labrum in his right shoulder goes according to plan, he’ll be back at first base after hitting .272/.355/.444 in his first 133 MLB games.

With regard to the infielders, that’s about the extent of the development. Pasquantino’s injury opened more time for fellow first baseman Nick Pratto, but he’s yet to carry his huge 2021-22 minor league production over to the big leagues. Michael Massey has popped 14 homers, but his .225/.270/.375 slash is nowhere near strong enough to seize the second base job. Infield/outfield hybrids like Nate Eaton and Samad Taylor did not produce in small samples.

The Royals could well keep things in house here, as it’s a dismal market for second base options. Old friend Whit Merrifield presents the best potential option in free agency, but he’ll likely garner interest from contending clubs (assuming either he or the Jays decline half of his 2024 mutual option). The rest of the market is comprised of rebound candidates (e.g. Amed Rosario, Kolten Wong) or utility players (e.g. Enrique Hernandez, Donovan Solano). The trade market presents alternatives, but Kansas City may not have the pitching coveted by teams with infield talent to market such as the Cardinals (Nolan Gorman) or Reds (Jonathan India).

We’ll get to that lack of pitching in a bit, but the rest of the lineup also bears mentioning. The Royals don’t have a single outfielder who they can count on as a well-rounded performer heading into the 2024 season. Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel have yet to hit big league pitching. Edward Olivares has provided roughly average offense at the plate but is not a strong defender. Catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez worked almost exclusively in the latter of those two roles this year, and while he’s having a big second half at the dish, he grades out as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the sport. Deadline pickup Nelson Velazquez has erupted with 14 homers in 131 plate appearances and surely locked in a job in the process — but even he grades as a sub-par defender.

The Royals should add at least one outfielder this offseason — if not two. As with second base, it’s a thin market. Kansas City isn’t going to play at the top of the market for Cody Bellinger and Teoscar Hernandez, so unless the plan is to offer rebound opportunities to a Hunter Renfroe or Joey Gallo, this could be another area to focus on in the trade market. Their 2022 acquisition of Waters has yet to pan out. Their deadline pickup of Velazquez has been outstanding so far. Targeting similar young outfielders lacking in clear paths to playing time with their current organizations could prove shrewd.

Even behind the plate, the outlook isn’t as strong as it once was. While Salvador Perez still carries plenty of name recognition, this year’s .252/.291/.419 batting line is nowhere near the .273/.311/.526 output he turned in from 2020-22. And Perez may be a five-time Gold Glove winner, but he hasn’t taken that award home since 2018 — in large part because his defense continues to wane. He’s thwarted just 14% of stolen base attempts against him this winter (league average is 21%), and Statcast pegs him below-average in terms of both blocking pitches in the dirt and framing pitches.

It’d frankly be surprising if Perez’s name didn’t pop up in a trade rumor or two this winter — he almost always does — but such talk is generally brought about by media speculation rather than earnest chances of him being moved. There’s never been any strong chance that Perez will actually be traded. The Royals love him — they named him just the fourth captain in team history — and Perez has 10-and-5 rights that grant him full veto power on any deal. Further, given the $44MM remaining on his contract and aforementioned decline on both sides of the ball, Perez simply doesn’t have the trade value many would assume based on his track record and name.

There’s also no clear immediate heir apparent to Perez, and thus no great urgency to move him. The use of Melendez almost exclusively in the outfield this year suggests the Royals don’t believe he’s a viable full-time option there. Twenty-eight-year-old Freddy Fermin could be an option to begin cutting into Perez’s workload after a nice rookie showing, but a broken finger ended his season. Pursuing some veteran catching depth, even if just on a minor league deal, seems wise.

The previously mentioned lack of pitching is the most glaring problem for Kansas City, particularly considering the heavy investment in college arms that the Royals hoped would fill out their pitching staff in the long run. Their ballyhooed 2018-20 selections of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy and Alec Marsh has yet to produce a clearly above-average starter. Singer has certainly looked the part at times, most notably in 2022, and he drew interest from the Reds (among others) at this year’s trade deadline despite some first-half struggles. His performance has only gotten shakier (6.87 ERA in his past seven starts), and at this point any trade of Singer would be selling low.

The composition of next year’s rotation is at least in part dependent on Zack Greinke’s plans. After signing a pair of one-year deals to return to his original organization, it seems like Greinke prefers to play out his final days in Kansas City. If he wants to come back for his age-40 season next year — which would allow him to take a run at multiple milestones, including 3,000 career strikeouts — the Royals might well give him the chance to do so. If not, they’ll be looking to replace roughly 200 innings between Greinke and Brad Keller, who is a free agent and is facing a cloudy outlook due to thoracic outlet symptoms.

While none of Singer, Lynch, Kowar or Bubic has developed as hoped, all are still in the organization. Singer and Lynch are the likeliest to have rotation jobs waiting. Kowar has already moved to the bullpen (and continued to struggle). Bubic is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Marsh has also debuted this year, pitching 70 innings in his MLB debut but recording a 5.66 ERA.

Despite the stalled nature of those college arms, the Royals aren’t without some hope in terms of success for their pitching development. Trade acquisition Cole Ragans, who came over from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman deal, has gone from a squeezed-out former first rounder in Texas to a focal point in the Kansas City rotation in no time at all.

Ragans had been relegated to bullpen work with Texas, but the Royals plugged him right into the rotation and have reaped immense benefits. After some slight tweaks to his repertoire, Ragans has pitched 65 1/3 innings of 2.34 ERA ball with a huge 31.3% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. He’s faced a generally weak slate of opponents, but even if you expect some regression, it’s hard not to be encouraged by the turnaround.

Ragans, who’ll turn 26 this winter and is controllable for another five years, has punched his ticket to the 2024 rotation. Singer and Lynch figure to be back in there as well. Last offseason’s surprising two-year investment in Jordan Lyles should assure him a spot despite poor 2023 results (6.24 ERA in 30 starts).

The Royals need to add some arms, but they also need to focus on more than bulk innings. Last winter’s signings of Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough didn’t meaningfully raise the team’s ceiling. Kansas City still has Lyles’ bulk innings in the bank, so to speak, and Ragans gives them one potentially strong performer. The goal this time around should be to add some upside, and unlike the position-player market, free agency has several such candidates this offseason.

No one should expect the Royals to outbid the field for NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto — although their need for prime-aged pitching and largely blank payroll outlook arguably makes them an ideal team to take such a risk — but there are several interesting injury reclamation projects. Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and Tyler Mahle could all fit the bill, although Mahle will miss the first half of the season following Tommy John surgery. Jack Flaherty has had a down year overall but will pitch next season at just 28. Notably, the Royals had trade interest in Montas back in the 2021-22 offseason.

A similar gamble on the bullpen side of things would make sense. The Royals have gotten a quietly interesting run from righty James McArthur in recent weeks, as the righty has reeled off 13 1/3 shutout innings with three hits, no walks and 14 strikeouts since moving to the ’pen. Carlos Hernandez, armed with a triple-digit heater, was quite good through the end of July before hitting a rough patch down the stretch. Lefty Austin Cox has pitched decently in a bullpen role.

By and large, however, the Royals are lacking in established, dependable relievers. With Chapman and Scott Barlow both traded, they can offer a ninth-inning role to any free agent reliever they want to try to steer to Kauffman Stadium. They could give a longtime setup man like Reynaldo Lopez or Joe Jimenez a full-time closing gig. They could also roll the dice on any number of high-end injury reclamations (e.g. Drew Pomeranz, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly) or perhaps just a former closer who’s had some struggles down the stretch in ’23 (e.g. old friend Will Smith). Any additions along those lines would give the Royals a chance at doubling down on their wildly successful signing of Chapman from last offseason.

Whichever specific targets Kansas City pursues, the resources should be there for Picollo and his staff. The Royals still owe since-released corner man Hunter Dozier $10MM, but there are only three other contracts on the books (Perez, Lyles, Jake Brentz). In all they have just $39.55MM in guaranteed money to be paid out. Arbitration raises will push that number forward, but any of Taylor Hearn, Taylor Clarke, Josh Taylor or Josh Staumont could conceivably be non-tendered. Other arb-eligible players like Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Hernandez aren’t going to break the bank. Their current contracts combined with arb raises should still total under $50MM.

That leaves at least a $40MM gap between the current group and this past season’s Opening Day payroll of about $91-92MM — perhaps a bit more, depending on trade scenarios and non-tenders. The Royals aren’t going to play at the very top of the market, and it bears emphasizing that free agency is a two-way street; they’re going to have a hard time selling Kansas City as a preferred destination to even second- or third-tier free agents who have any kind of demand. It might mean overpaying (as they did with Lyles) or delving even deeper into the free agent waters.

As is to be expected with any 100-loss team, the areas in need of improvement outweigh those where the team appears set. The Royals have some money to splash around in free agency a bit, but don’t expect any marquee additions. Upside plays for pitchers — where their spacious park is surely a bonus — and perhaps some additional trades to acquire controllable names in need of a change of scenery figure to follow. The Royals have more work to do than a team should after enduring eight straight losing or .500 seasons, and it’s going to take multiple years to get them back on track.

Quick Hits: Moore, Astros, Senga, Royals

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The Astros had some interest in Matt Moore when the southpaw was a free agent last winter, and it looks like that interest extended into Moore’s recent visits to the waiver wire.  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Astros put claims on Moore when he was put on waivers by both the Angels and Guardians, only to be beaten to the punch both times by Cleveland and then Miami, Moore’s current team.  A claiming team was only responsible for the relatively small amount of salary remaining from the one-year, $7.55MM deal Moore signed with the Halos last winter, so it’s safe to assume that most contending teams put in claims on the lefty’s services, so the Astros were maybe a longshot to have Moore fall to them in the waiver order.  Houston had has one of the better records in baseball for most of the season, thus putting them behind all the clubs with lesser records (like the Guardians and Marlins) in terms of claims.

It stands to reason that Houston might also look into finally landing Moore when he returns to the free agent market this offseason.  In the near-term, however, it is fair to wonder if adding Moore might have helped the Astros avoid their suddenly late-season slump.  Houston has lost nine of its last 12 games, dropping the club from first place in the AL West to fighting just to make the playoffs altogether.

Some more items from around baseball as head into the last week of the regular season…

  • Kodai Senga has been a major bright spot within a disappointing Mets season, as the right-hander has delivered a 2.96 ERA over 161 1/3 innings in his first year of Major League action.  Now that Senga is better adapted to North American baseball, the question is whether or not he might be deployed somewhat differently in 2024, as this season saw the Mets often give Senga extra rest between starts as a way of easing him in from Japanese baseball’s routine of starting pitchers once per week.  “It’s a very fluid situation.  It’s not just, ‘We want you to go on four days’ rest or not.’ There is a lot of thought that goes into that decision on the team’s end too,” Senga told the New York Post’s Mike Puma, via interpreter.  “So I think they will prioritize my health as they did this year. We’ll do my measurements between starts as we did this year, and if everything looks good sometimes it will happen, sometimes it won’t.”  Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner also noted that Senga’s usage could also be determined by what other pitchers join the rotation next year, as New York is thin in proven starting pitching depth.
  • The Royals announced some front office changes earlier this week, with some in-house promotions and an intriguing new hire of Brian Bridges as the club’s new scouting director.  Bridges has worked as a national crosschecker with the Giants for the last few seasons, and previously worked with the Braves from 2006-18 as first a scout, and then the scouting director for the last four years of his Atlanta tenure.  Speaking with MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, Royals GM J.J. Picollo said Bridges “is widely regarded as one of the best evaluators in the game.  His handprints are kind of all over the Braves right now, with players that are still there and players they moved to acquire other pieces to help them win.”  Homegrown talent has been a key plank of the Braves’ success in recent years, whereas the Royals are seemingly taking a new approach to their development process, as their post-2016 rebuild has yet to deliver much in the way of quality at the MLB level.

AL Central Notes: Paddack, Perez, Scholtens, Guardians

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After a long recovery from Tommy John surgery, Chris Paddack was activated from the Twins’ 60-day injured list today and was ready to appear in his first big league game since May 8, 2022.  Technically, Paddack did “appear,” though he didn’t actually play.  Paddack entered today’s game out of the bullpen prior to the start of the seventh inning, but as he was warming up on the mound, a rain delay halted the action for 50 minutes.  As a result, Minnesota brought Louie Varland in to pitch once play resumed, leaving Paddack credited in the official box score with a rare appearance of zero innings pitched and zero batters faced.  While it makes for a quirky bit of trivia for Paddack, the righty will probably appreciate it more once he gets a chance to properly complete his comeback with a real pitching appearance, which could happen as early as Tuesday when the AL Central champion Twins begin a series with the Athletics.

Some more from around the AL Central….

  • The Royals activated Salvador Perez from the concussion-related injury list today, as the veteran catcher returned free of symptoms after the minimum seven days.  Perez returns for a few more games to complete his 13th Major League season, and even after hitting a homer in today’s 6-5 Kansas City win over the Astros, it has been a tough year for the backstop.  Beyond the Royals’ struggles, Perez has had a down year at the plate, hitting .252/.291/.419 with 22 homers over 555 plate appearances.
  • Prior to today’s rain-shortened 3-2 victory over the Red Sox, the White Sox placed right-hander Jesse Scholtens on the 15-day injured list due to a left calf strain, and called righty Declan Cronin up from Triple-A.  The injury officially ends Scholtens’ first MLB season, as he started 11 of 26 games for Chicago after debuting on April 7 and posted a 5.29 ERA, 15.4% strikeout rate and eight percent walk rate.  The White Sox moved Scholtens up and down from Triple-A on a few occasions, using him primarily as a reliever before giving him a longer look as a starter over the last couple of months.
  • While Terry Francona and the Guardians have stopped short of making it entirely official, all signs are pointing to Francona retiring at the end of the 2023 season.  As the winningest manager in franchise history, Francona leaves a high bar for the Guards’ next skipper to reach, and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that the club is planning “a wide-ranging managerial search.”  The implication seems to be that the Guardians will look outside the organization for the new hire, though Hoynes pushes back against the perception that the front office is aiming to take a fuller control of in-game duties in the name of analytics.  “It would be a mistake to think the next manager will be a human computer/yes man,” Hoynes writes, noting that the front office “want someone who will challenge them, someone they can learn from” as they have during Francona’s 11 seasons in Cleveland.

AL Central Notes: Keller, Paddack, Allen

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Royals right-hander Brad Keller spent most of the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, and though he was activated briefly early this month, he quickly found himself back on the shelf due to what the club described as “symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.” His placement back on the IL had already ended his 2023 season, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star) that Keller has indeed been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Quatraro added that Keller has not yet decided a course of action regarding his injury and figures to decide in the coming days about his path forward.

It’s brutal news for Keller, who is poised to depart the Royals for free agency once the 2023 season comes to a close. Keller looked to be a quality mid-rotation starter in the early seasons of his career, posting a 3.50 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 360 1/3 innings of work between 2018 and 2020. Unfortunately, he’s suffered a significant downturn in production since then, with a 5.14 ERA and 4.80 FIP across 314 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. In that time, Keller’s walk rate crept up to 11.5%, well above the 9.1% figure he posted in the first three seasons of his career. While Keller was striking out more batters as well, it wasn’t enough to compensate for the additional walks, to say nothing of a sustained spike in the percentage of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs in recent years. After posting an HR/FB of just 8% in the first three years of his career, that number spiked to 13% the last three seasons.

With less than two months until free agency figures to open, Keller faces a significant degree of uncertainty about the future of his career after spending his entire major league career to this point with the Royals. Surgery to correct TOS has rarely seen players return to the majors and enjoy success, with Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer among the arms who have seen their careers impacted by the procedure in recent years. One example of a player who has returned effectively is Arizona right-hander Merrill Kelly, who stands as a prime example of the fact that not all types of TOS have the same long-term outlook.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins could welcome right-hander Chris Paddack back to the major league roster as soon as tomorrow, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Paddack, 27, has been on the IL since last spring after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but has long been been considered a possible late-season option for Minnesota’s pitching staff. It seems that possibility is on the verge of coming to fruition, with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that Paddack is expected to contribute as a reliever out of the bullpen rather than a member of the rotation upon being activated. Paddack looked impressive in his most recent rehab outing at Triple-A, where the righty struck out five on two hits and a walk across three scoreless innings of work.
  • The Guardians have placed left-hander Logan Allen on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation, per MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. The move brings an end to Allen’s rookie season. It was an impressive start to the young southpaw’s career, as he posted a solid 3.81 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 4.20 FIP across 24 starts with the Guardians this year. Allen and fellow rookies Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are the latest young arms to slide into the club’s rotation from their farm system, and figure to join more established arms like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie as quality rotation options as Cleveland looks ahead to the 2024 campaign.

Royals Outright Matt Beaty

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The Royals have sent Matt Beaty outright to Triple-A Omaha, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. The left-handed hitter was designated for assignment on Tuesday.

Beaty appeared in 26 games after re-signing with K.C. on a minor league pact in June. He’d also signed with the Royals in Spring Training before being traded to the Giants on Opening Day. San Francisco immediately called him up but only played him four times before waiving him. After going unclaimed, Beaty chose free agency and circled back to Kansas City.

In 67 trips to the plate, Beaty hit .232/.358/.304. He walked six times with 12 strikeouts but only had four extra-base hits, all of which were doubles. Beaty is best suited for first base or a corner outfield position, putting extra pressure on his bat.

The former 12th-round draftee posted above-average offensive numbers in a part-time role with the Dodgers from 2019-21. He hit .262/.333/.425 in 240 contests. Los Angeles nevertheless DFA him before the start of the 2022 campaign. Beaty hasn’t hit well in scattered looks over the two seasons since then. He’s a .173/.271/.240 hitter in 119 big league plate appearances since the Dodgers dealt him.

Beaty has the right to again test free agency. He’d be a minor league free agent at the beginning of the offseason anyhow unless the Royals add him back to the roster.

White Sox Expected To Hire Josh Barfield, Brian Bannister, Gene Watson To Front Office Roles

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Diamondbacks director of player development Josh Barfield is expected to leave the D’Backs for a new job in the White Sox front office, according to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin and Steve Gilbert (X link).  Barfield will step into the role of assistant general manager, under newly-hired Sox GM Chris Getz.

Barfield isn’t the only newcomer to Getz’s staff, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via X) reports that the White Sox have also hired Brian Bannister for a role in pitching development and Gene Watson for a player development job.  Bannister has worked as the Giants’ director of pitching since December 2019, while Watson was an assistant GM and VP of Major League scouting with the Royals.

Fans may know the 40-year-old Barfield best from his playing career, as he appeared in 309 Major League games with San Diego and Cleveland from 2006-09.  He continued playing in the minors and in independent ball until 2013, and then started his post-playing career as a scout with the D’Backs in 2016, moving his way up the front office depth chart until assuming his current role during the 2019-20 offseason.

Bannister is another former player, tossing 667 1/3 innings with the Mets and Royals from 2006-10.  (Notably, Getz and Bannister were teammates in Kansas City in 2010.)  Since retiring, the 42-year-old Bannister worked from the Red Sox from 2015-19 in a variety of roles, ranging from scout, to assistant pitching coach, to a more analytical front office position as a director of pitching analysis and development.  This led to a similar position in San Francisco, as Bannister worked in a uniformed on-field role except in 2022, when league rules didn’t permit Bannister to participate in his coaching role because he wasn’t vaccinated.

Watson also has some past Kansas City ties to Getz and Bannister, as Watson has worked for the Royals for all but one season from 2006-23, as Watson worked for the Angels in 2021.  A longtime scout and evaluator, Watson has also worked with the Padres, Braves, and Marlins during a career that began back in 1997.  Watson has been interviewed for GM jobs in the past, including the Angels’ opening in 2021 that eventually went to Perry Minasian, though the Halos were impressed enough to still hire Watson away from K.C. for an advisory position.

The three hires bring some fresh voices into the White Sox front office, giving Getz (who has been working for Chicago since 2016) some different perspective as he embarks on his first stint running a baseball operations department.  Getz’s promotion continued the criticism that the Sox organization is too insular in its thinking, but today’s hires act as something of a counter to the idea that the White Sox are set in their ways.  Barfield and Bannister, like Getz, are younger executives with past playing experience who perhaps have a bit more of a modern analytical approach to player development, whereas Watson brings some old-school scouting knowledge into the fold.

Royals Announce Five Roster Moves

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The Royals announced several roster moves today, including the news that Brady Singer and Brad Keller have both been placed on the 15-day injured list, ending their seasons.  Kansas City recalled right-hander Jonathan Bowlan from Triple-A and selected the contract of left-hander Anthony Veneziano from Triple-A as well.  To create 40-man roster space for Veneziano, Matt Beaty was designated for assignment.

Keller already spent a big chunk of the season on the 60-day IL due to a right shoulder impingement, and his placement today was due to a “return of symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome,” according to the Royals’ official announcement.  That is unwelcome news for the veteran righty, and it implies that a TOS surgery might be required to correct the problem.  The Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly is one of the rare examples of a pitcher returning from a TOS procedure and still pitching well in the aftermath, though if Keller does need a surgery, his chances of a recovery and a return to form might hinge on the specific nature of his TOS issue.

In the bigger picture, undergoing a major surgery will also certainly hamper Keller’s chances of landing a new contract in free agency this winter.  With a 5.17 ERA over 318 2/3 innings since Opening Day 2021, Keller was already likely looking at a non-guaranteed deal on the open market, but he might now face a longer wait before landing any kind of contract if he does indeed have to get a TOS procedure.

Singer has a strain in his left lower lumbar area, and the injury will put a coda on an overall disappointing year for the 27-year-old.  After seemingly breaking out in 2022, Singer appeared to be the front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher the Royals were desperately hoping to find from their group of highly-touted (but to date underwhelming) crop of top pitching prospects.  Unfortunately, Singer took a step backwards in 2023, with a 5.52 ERA over 159 2/3 innings and some of the worst hard-contact numbers of any hurler in baseball.  The right-hander’s strikeout rate was also well below average, sharply declining from 24.2% in 2022 to 18.9% in 2023.

One of the many questions the Royals face heading into 2024 is discovering what exactly they have in Singer, and whether or not he can be an effective and consistent starting pitcher.  He did have a few stretches of quality starts amidst his broader struggles in 2023, but that is small consolation for a Kansas City team in dire need of rotation help.

Veneziano has been in the Royals organization since he was selected in the 10th round of the 2019 draft.  After a strong start to the season at Double-A, he earned a promotion to Triple-A Omaha in mid-May.  He has pitched to a 4.22 ERA over 89 2/3 innings with below-average strikeout (20.6%) and walk (11.2%) rates, but it has been enough to earn the 26-year-old his first taste of Major League action.

Baseball America ranks Veneziano as the fourth-best prospect in the Kansas City farm system, while Bowlan is 18th on their list.  MLB Pipeline has Veneziano 16th and Bowlan out of their top 30 altogether, quite possibly owing to the injuries that have plagued Bowlan since he was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft.  He underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2021, and has dealt with some shoulder issues this year.

The results haven’t been there for Bowlan since returning from his TJ rehab, as he posted a 5.92 ERA over 62 1/3 combined innings (at rookie ball, high-A ball, and Double-A) in 2022, and he has a 5.91 ERA over 102 frames of Double-A and Triple-A work this season.  His first appearance with the Royals will also mark the MLB debut for the right-hander.

Since the Royals have off-days on both Thursday and Monday, it remains to be seen how they’ll line up their rotation over the final two weeks of the season.  However, it stands to reason that both Bowlan and Veneziano will get at least one start as K.C. looks to patch these holes in their rotation and takes a look at two farm system arms that could factor into the club’s 2024 plans.

This is the second time that Beaty has been designated for assignment this season, as the Giants DFA’ed him at the end of May.  Beaty opted for free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate, and he landed in Kansas City on a minors deal in June.  This was technically his second stint with the Royals, as Beaty also signed a minor league contract with K.C. during the offseason but was then traded to San Francisco just prior to Opening Day.

Beaty has appeared in 26 big league games with the Royals, hitting .232/.358/.304 over 67 plate appearances.  That gives him only a .518 OPS over 119 PA since the start of the 2022 season, though Beaty was hampered by a shoulder injury for much of last year when he was a member of the Padres.  It seems likely that Beaty will clear waivers and again face an opt-out decision, and he could opt for free agency just to get a head start on the offseason rather than stick it out for the last few games of the Triple-A season.

Royals Select Tyler Cropley

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11:30am: Quatraro tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com that further testing revealed Perez does indeed have a mild concussion.

10:25am: The Royals announced that they have selected the contract of catcher Tyler Cropley. He will take the active roster spot of Salvador Perez, who has been placed on the seven-day concussion list, retroactive to September 17. To open a spot on the 40-man, catcher Freddy Fermin was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Perez departed Saturday’s game after being struck in the mask by a foul ball. The Royals later announced that he had avoided a concussion, with manager Matt Quatraro saying that the backstop “got his bell rung a little bit” but felt fine after the game. It now seems that either the situation has changed or the club is merely deciding to be cautious in the late stages of a lost season.

The club will now be without its two primary catchers from this season, at least for a few games, as Fermin suffered a fracture of his right middle finger earlier this month. He underwent surgery last week and is done for the season, making his transfer to the 60-day injured list an expected formality.

With Perez and Fermin both unavailable, Cropley will get back to the majors. He was briefly selected to the club’s roster earlier this month when Fermin suffered his injury but he was designated for assignment a few days later, without getting into a game, when Logan Porter was promoted. He cleared waivers and was outrighted, allowing him to rejoin the roster today. At least for the time being, it seems as though Porter and Cropley will be sharing the catching duties.

Aside from that brief time on the big league roster, Cropley has split his time between Double-A and Triple-A this year. He has walked in 11.5% of his plate appearances and hit a combined .233/.329/.367 for a wRC+ of 87. He’ll make his major league debut as soon as he is put into a game.

Central Notes: Bibee, Madrigal, Yelich, Perez

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Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee exited yesterday’s game due to right hip tightness in the sixth inning of yesterday’s win over the Rangers, as relayed by MLB.com. Bibee is scheduled to undergo an MRI today to determine the severity of the issue.

It’s the latest negative development for a Guardians rotation that’s been plagued by injury woes all year. Right-handers Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are both currently on the 60-day injured list, while righty Cal Quantrill also missed significant time with injury earlier this season. With the club’s three most established starters having spent time on the shelf this season, Bibee has become the rotation’s anchor during his rookie season. The 24-year-old youngster sports an impressive 2.98 ERA that’s 41% better than league average across 25 starts this year. While his 3.52 FIP and and slightly inflated 80% strand rate indicate there could be some regression in Bibee’s future, his solid 24.1% strikeout rate and strong 7.7% walk rate give him the look of a strong mid-rotation starter at the very least.

If Bibee’s injury ends his 2023 campaign, it will have certainly been a successful one that figures to garner some attention in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The Guardians are unlikely to be meaningfully impacted by his availability for the remainder of this season, however. Considering Cleveland sits seven games back of the Twins in the AL Central with just thirteen games left to play, it would take a miracle for the club to make the postseason even in the weak AL Central division.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal exited yesterday’s 13-inning marathon loss to the Diamondbacks with right hamstring tightness, as relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal’s balky right hamstring has caused him issues throughout his young big league career: it required season-ending surgery while he was with the White Sox back in 2021, and he missed just under a month with a strain earlier this season. A former top prospect who was selected fourth overall in the 2018 draft, Madrigal has slashed just .283/.311/.352 (83 wRC+) in 294 big league plate appearances this season. That being said, the 26-year-old has hit better since returning to the big leagues from an optional assignment in early June, slashing .271/.325/.379 with a minuscule 7.7% strikeout rate. With Jeimer Candelario already on the shelf, the Cubs figure to primarily rely on Patrick Wisdom at third base for the time being if Madrigal is out for an extended period.
  • Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich has appeared in just one game since September 8 due to low back stiffness, and manager Craig Counsell (as relayed by MLB.com) indicates that the 31-year-old is still day-to-day despite starting Friday’s game against the Nationals. “At this point, we need 100 percent of Christian Yelich.” Counsell told reporters yesterday, “It’s not the time to go out there less than that.” Though Yelich is still nowhere near the level of production he enjoyed in 2018 and 2019 when he looked like one of the best players in the sport, the veteran outfielder has enjoyed a bounce-back of sorts in 2023, slashing a solid .272/.363/.432 with a wRC+ of 116. The club has utilized Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the outfield alongside regular fixtures Sal Frelick and Mark Canha while Yelich has been unavailable.
  • Royals catcher Salvador Perez exited yesterday’s game against the Astros after a foul ball off the bat of Jose Altuve struck his mask in the fifth inning. Perez began to feel lightheaded before exiting the game to undergo the concussion protocol, though the Royals later announced that Perez had avoided a concussion. Per MLB.com, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters that Perez “got his bell rung a little bit” but that Perez was feeling fine by the end of the game. It’s possible, then, that Perez returns to the lineup as soon as this afternoon. Perez has slashed .252/.291/.415 with a wRC+ of 84 in 551 trips to the plate this year while splitting time between catcher, first base, and DH.

Royals Outright Tyler Cropley

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Sept. 13: Cropley passed through waivers unclaimed and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Omaha, the Royals announced Wednesday. He’ll remain in the organization, as he does not have the prior outright or three years of MLB service needed to reject an assignment.

Sept. 11: The Royals announced that catcher Tyler Cropley has been designated for assignment. His roster spot will go to Logan Porter, whose upcoming promotion was reported yesterday.

The club has Salvador Perez as its main backstop but was also giving plenty of playing time to Freddy Fermin this year, with Perez spending some time at first base of late. Unfortunately, Fermin suffered a fracture in his right middle finger, forcing the Royals to find another backup. MJ Melendez came up as a catcher but doesn’t seem to be considered a realistic option there. Back in May, manager Matt Quatraro said they were going to keep him in the outfield in order to let him focus on his hitting and he hasn’t been behind the plate since.

Cropley had his contract selected on the weekend but has now been quickly designated for assignment without getting into a game, replaced by Porter. Prior to being selected Cropley was in Double-A while Porter was in Triple-A. On the surface, it’s a strange move to have added Cropley before Porter and then pivot two days later, but it’s possible it’s related to the schedule. The Royals were in Toronto this weekend and it has been speculated that Cropley had his passport ready to go while Porter did not. That’s not confirmed but it would make sense of why Cropley was selected and then quickly removed from the roster once the club crossed back over the Canadian border.

Whatever the reasons, Cropley got a very brief taste of major league life, albeit as a passive observer. Since the trade deadline has now passed, he will be placed on waivers in the coming days. In 43 Double-A games this year, he’s hit .234/.329/.359 for a wRC+ of 86.

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