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Giants Interested In Danny Duffy

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Though Danny Duffy was placed on the Royals’ 10-day injured list on Tuesday, the Giants still have trade interest in the veteran southpaw, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  “Injuries don’t give San Francisco much pause in general,” Slusser notes, citing the team’s signing of John Brebbia in the offseason as Brebbia was recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Naturally, the Giants’ interest will hinge on just exactly how hurt Duffy is, considering that this is the second time he has visited the IL this season with a left flexor strain.  That earlier IL stint sidelined Duffy for close to six weeks, so if a similar recovery period is required, he won’t be available for the Royals, Giants, or any other club until the first week of September.  This still makes Duffy a potential difference-maker in a pennant race, though that assumes that he’ll still be effective after this latest layoff, and it also assumes that he won’t need a longer time to heal up considering that this is a recurring injury.

It adds yet another wrinkle to Duffy’s interesting case a trade candidate.  While the Statcast metrics haven’t been great for the 32-year-old, Duffy has strong bottom-line numbers, with a 2.51 ERA and an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate over 61 innings.  He is also a free agent after the season and thus a seemingly logical trade chip for the struggling Royals, though Duffy has full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player, and he has been public about his desire to remain with the Royals for the entirety of his career.

However, there has been some indication that Duffy (born in Goleta, California) might be willing to accept a trade to the West Coast.  As such, teams like the Padres, Dodgers, and now the Giants have reportedly been linked to Duffy, though it remains to be seen if the other California teams also wouldn’t balk at acquiring an injured player.  As Slusser notes, Duffy’s injury surely lowers the Royals’ asking price in a trade, so a team like San Francisco could potentially see him as something of a buy-low lottery ticket acquisition.

In other Giants trade rumblings, Slusser reports that the Cardinals and Rangers have had scouts recently watching the Giants, so some potential trade chips on those teams (if St. Louis indeed decides to sell at the deadline) could be on San Francisco’s radar.  On the pitching end, Kyle Gibson, Kwang Hyun Kim, or even longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright stand out.  Slusser notes that the outfield is a target area for the Giants, so Rangers slugger Joey Gallo would be a major fit.

Royals Reportedly “More Open” To Trading Whit Merrifield Than In Past

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3:48PM: The Mets are one of the teams interested in Merrifield, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  One source tells Heyman that it still seems “highly doubtful” that the Royals actually move Merrifield in any deal.

9:18AM: Teams have been trying to pry second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield away from the Royals for several years, and The Athletic’s Jayson Stark now reports that the Royals are “more open” to trading the two-time All-Star than they have been in the past.

“More open” is a relative term and doesn’t necessarily mean Merrifield is being outwardly shopped to other clubs. After all, Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore has all but labeled Merrifield as untouchable in the past, so being “more open” than that isn’t exactly a high bar to clear.

Back in 2018, for instance, Moore said that Merrifield “certainly won’t be traded at the deadline” and went on to add that the Royals “need him in our city and on our team.” Merrifield signed an extension that offseason, and the following summer Moore called him “one of the best players in all of baseball” and said that “the ask would be just crazy” if other clubs came calling on Merrifield.

Over the past year, Moore has publicly stated that his club is moving back into a win-now mindset, and the Royals’ offseason actions demonstrated that shift. Kansas City signed veterans Carlos Santana and Mike Minor to two-year contracts in free agency, dipped into its farm system to acquire two years of Andrew Benintendi and signed Salvador Perez to a four-year, $82MM extension. Those aren’t the types of moves rebuilding clubs make.

That said, it’s also natural that as the Royals’ control over Merrifield continues to wane, they’d at least allow themselves the opportunity to be overwhelmed by an offer. Merrifield is earning $7.25MM in 2021 but is owed just $3.75MM in 2022 as part of a front-loaded contract extension. The Royals hold a $6.5MM option on him for the 2023 season as well — though that option would increase by $4MM so long as he spends fewer than 109 days on the injured list by the time the team’s decision is due after the 2022 season.

Assuming Kansas City still aims to compete in the American League Central next season, the front office surely still views Merrifield as an important piece of that puzzle. He’s hitting .273/.322/.405 with eight home runs, 21 doubles, two triples and a league-leading 25 stolen bases at the moment. That offensive production is down from peak levels, but it’s also on the upswing since the calendar flipped to June (and since the league cracked down on Spider Tack and other foreign substances for pitchers). Merrifield is also still a strong defender at second base and versatile enough to rotate all over the outfield as needed.

One would imagine that were the Royals to actually entertain offers for Merrifield, the ask would be focused on controllable, near-MLB assets. Trading him for far-off prospects would only weaken the 2022 roster — and his frontloaded contract structure wouldn’t give the team any real cost savings that could be reallocated toward offsetting that loss.

All that said, it’s easy to envision a robust market for a player with Merrifield’s versatility and track record. The Mariners and White Sox could both pursue infield help. He’d give the Yankees a center field option with a contact-oriented approach the roster largely lacks. Merrifield could bounce between second base and the outfield for the Giants, Padres or Dodgers. His salary is affordable enough that even low-payroll contenders like the A’s and Rays could jump into the fray.

Because of that broad appeal, it’s only natural for Moore and his front office to at least listen to offers on Merrifield. Generally speaking, willing sellers have set very high asking prices on their most appealing trade candidates to date. Merrifield won’t be an exception.

Anthony Swarzak Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

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The Royals announced Wednesday that veteran right-handed reliever Anthony Swarzak opted for free agency over an assignment to Triple-A after going unclaimed on outright waivers. He’s now free to sign with any team.

Swarzak, 35, has pitched for both the D-backs and Royals this season but been clobbered for 13 runs on 20 hits, including four homers, in 12 1/3 innings of work. He yielded eight runs in 7 2/3 frames before being designated for assignment in Kansas City. Swarzak didn’t pitch in the Majors last year and worked to a combined 5.08 ERA in 79 2/3 innings from 2018-19 between the Mets, Mariners and Braves.

Swarzak’s best season came back in 2017, when he posted a 2.33 ERA and a career-best 30 percent strikeout rate in 77 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Brewers. He’s battled shoulder troubles and been inconsistent since that time, however. It’s been several years since Swarzak has looked like an effective big league reliever on a consistent basis, but he had a good showing in Triple-A earlier this year. Given the number of clubs around the league who are scrambling to find bullpen help, the 11-year big league veteran could well find interest from a new organization on a minor league arrangement.

Royals Acquire Joel Payamps

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The Royals have acquired reliever Joel Payamps from the Blue Jays in exchange for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams. He has been optioned to Triple-A Omaha. Kansas City had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary.

Toronto somewhat surprisingly designated Payamps for assignment last weekend. The righty has had a nice season, pitching to a 2.70 ERA/4.59 SIERA across 30 innings of relief. Payamps has only struck out 18.5% of batters faced (the league average for relievers is 24.5%), but he’s generated swinging strikes on a decent 11.6% of his offerings. Payamps has thrown strikes at an average rate and has thus far been excellent at avoiding damaging contact. The 27-year-old ranks in the 75th percentile or better in terms of suppressing opponents’ barrel rate, hard contact rate and average exit velocity, per Statcast.

Payamps is in his final minor league option year, meaning the Royals can shuttle him back-and-forth between Kansas City and Omaha for the remainder of this season. If he sticks on the 40-man roster over the winter, he’ll need to break camp on the active roster in 2022 or else again be offered around the league.

Royals Place Danny Duffy On Injured List

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The Royals announced Tuesday that they’ve placed left-hander Danny Duffy and right-hander Brady Singer on the 10-day injured list. Duffy is dealing with a left flexor strain, while Singer is dealing with right shoulder fatigue. Righty Tyler Zuber and first baseman/outfielder Ryan McBroom were recalled from Triple-A in a pair of corresponding moves.

Duffy, 32, spent May 12 through June 23 on the injured list with this same injury. He’d returned to post a 3.72 ERA in 19 1/3 innings across five starts and one relief appearance. Overall, he’s pitched to a 2.51 ERA with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate and an 8.7 percent walk rate through 61 innings this season.

Given the Royals’ poor season and Duffy’s status as a pending free agent, there was some speculation that he could be moved in the coming days. Between Duffy’s health in 2021, his previously vocal stance on spending his whole career in Kansas City, and the fact that he can veto any trade as a 10-and-5 player, a trade might not have been especially likely anyhow. However, this latest IL stint seems to all but eliminate the possibility of a deal coming together.

With the elimination of August trade waivers, there’d be no possibility of Duffy changing hands following the July 30 deadline. He’ll play out the final season of a five-year, $65MM contract extension he signed prior to the 2017 season and reach the open market. That said, the Royals will be in the market for pitching help this winter and could very well look to bring Duffy back on a new contract as a free agent — assuming the current flexor strain doesn’t prove to be too severe, of course.

It’s been an up-and-down season for the 24-year-old Singer, who was hit hard in his season debut before settling into a nice groove. Singer posted excellent numbers in April, struggled immensely in May, and had a solid-but-unspectacular showing in June. That had all balanced out to a 4.52 ERA and a 3.84 FIP through July 7. However, Singer was blown up for seven runs in two innings against the Orioles in his most recent outing, sending his season ERA soaring to 5.13.

The obvious hope for Singer and the Royals is that this does prove to be nothing more than fatigue. While they’re 18 games under .500 and clearly not postseason contenders in 2021, Singer is a former first-round pick and top prospect who is viewed as a key long-term piece for the Royals’ rotation. He logged a 4.06 ERA in 12 starts last year in his Major League debut and is controlled all the way through the 2025 season.

Draft Signings: 7/19/21

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A few notable draft signings for Day Two selections:

  • The Braves signed right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach to a $1MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That checks in a bit below the $1.1855MM slot value associated with the 59th overall pick. A two-way star at the University of Nebraska, Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher on draft day. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Cornhuskers this season because he was the team’s everyday shortstop, but it’s possible the Braves stretch him out as a starting pitcher in pro ball. Keith Law of the Athletic is particularly bullish on Schwellenbach, ranking him the class’ #29 prospect pre-draft and praising his delivery, mid-90s fastball, and promising secondary pitches.
  • The Cardinals have signed second-rounder Joshua Baez to a $2.25MM bonus, Callis reports. That’s well above the $1.3385MM slot value that accompanies the 54th selection. A corner outfielder from a Massachusetts high school, Baez had been committed to Vanderbilt University. He’s a high-volatility prospect, with some of the best raw power in the class but questions about his hit tool given the lack of quality pitching he faced in the Northeast. Baez’s huge upside earned him spots among the top 35 prospects in the estimation of Law, Baseball America, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. St. Louis saved a bit of bonus pool space by going underslot with UCSB right-hander Michael McGreevy in the first round.
  • The Royals came to a $1MM agreement with fourth-rounder Shane Panzini, Callis reports. That’s nearly double the $538.2K slot value that comes with the 108th selection. Kansas City’s clearly more bullish than most public evaluators on Panzini, who came in at #239 in Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA noted that the right-hander can get his fastball into the mid-90s and has a clean delivery, but expressed concerns about his lack of impactful secondary pitches and advanced age for a prep draftee (he turns 20 in October). Nevertheless, the Royals were comfortable offering the New Jersey native seven figures to forego his commitment to the University of Virginia.

Royals Sign Second-Round Pick Ben Kudrna To Overslot Deal

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The Royals have signed second-round draft pick Ben Kudrna for a $3MM signing bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s nearly double the $1.7298MM slot value associated with the 43rd overall selection.

Kansas City managed to meet the LSU commit’s asking price thanks to their underslot agreement with first-rounder Frank Mozzicato. The Royals inked Mozzicato to a $3.55MM bonus last weekend, nearly $2MM south of the slot value accompanying the #7 pick — an unsurprising development since most public evaluators projected the lefty as a late first round talent. By taking Mozzicato and Kudrna, the Royals elected to divide the bulk of their bonus pool nearly equally to a pair off well-regarded prep pitchers, rather than locking in on one blue chip prospect at the top of the class.

As their similar bonuses indicate, Mozzicato and Kudrna are seen by public evaluators as being a similar caliber of prospect. (Keith Law of the Athletic actually had Kudrna slightly ahead of Mozzicato on his pre-draft rankings). Law, Baseball America and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs all placed Kudrna between 40th and 60th in this year’s class. By all accounts, the Kansas righty’s a fairly prototypical high school projection arm with a good frame and delivery, low-90s velocity, and the makings of a pair of quality secondary pitches.

Royals Sign First-Rounder Frank Mozzicato

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The Royals have announced a deal with left-hander Frank Mozzicato, selected seventh overall by K.C. in last week’s amateur draft.  MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports (Twitter link) that Mozzicato signed for a bonus of $3.55MM, considerably below the $5,432,400 slot value attached to the seventh overall pick.

The savings will allow to the Royals to spend more of their $10,917,700 bonus pool on their other picks, and there was some expectation that Mozzicato would take a below-slot deal since Kansas City exceeded the projections of draft pundits by taking Mozzicato with the seventh pick.  There was a fairly wide range of opinion about Mozzicato’s draft stock, with ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel coming in highest by ranking Mozzicato as the 21st-best prospect in the class.  (Fangraphs had the left-hander 29th, MLB Pipeline 39th, Baseball America 41st, and The Athletic’s Keith Law 54th.)

Mozzicato elevated his profile with an outstanding finish to his Connecticut high school career this spring, including a rather incredible stretch of four consecutive no-hitters.  As noted in Fangraphs’ scouting report, “it’s tough to measure the performance of Northeast prep players due to the level of competition,” but clearly the Royals feel Mozzicato’s potential was worthy of such a high pick.

A plus curveball is Mozzicato’s signature pitch, receiving a 60 grade (on the 20-80 scouting scale) from both Pipeline and BA.  McDaniel even writes that some scouts were even more bullish on Mozzicato’s curve, putting it in the 65-70 range.  “Mozzicato already manipulates speeds on his curveball based on the situation like a veteran, with an ability to consistently execute and command the pitch well beyond his years,” according to Baseball America.  Beyond the big breaking ball, Mozzicato has a fastball that sits in the early 90’s but with the potential for more velocity to be added.

Royals Reinstate Wade Davis From 10-Day IL, Designate Anthony Swarzak

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The Royals have reinstated veteran reliever Wade Davis from the 10-day injured list, the team announced.  In a corresponding move, right-hander Anthony Swarzak has been designated for assignment.

A right forearm strain sent Davis to the IL on June 30, continuing what has been another tough season for the 35-year-old.  After a pair of dismal, injury-plagued seasons with the Rockies, Davis signed a minor league deal with the Royals, looking to revive his career at the site of his 2014-16 glory days.

However, Davis has struggled to an 8.06 ERA over 25 2/3 innings out of the K.C. bullpen, surrendering an ungainly seven home runs over that limited sample size.  With the Royals falling out of contention and more likely to want to look at younger pitchers down the stretch, it remains to be seen whether or not Davis will continue on the roster, though the organization could very well give some extra leeway to such a respected pitcher in the franchise’s history.

Swarzak also caught on with the Royals on a minors deal back in May, after the Diamondbacks released the righty from an earlier minor league contract in April.  After not pitching during the 2020 season, Swarzak has had a rocky return to the mound, with a 9.49 ERA over 12 1/3 combined innings with Arizona and Kansas City.

Latest On Danny Duffy

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While the Royals began the year well, their performance has dropped off precipitously over the past couple months. They’ll come out of the All-Star Break a dismal 36-53, sitting in last place in the AL Central. Despite making some efforts last offseason to compete, the Royals have fallen flat.

With a postseason berth obviously out of the question, Kansas City would seem to be an obvious seller. However, the bulk of the roster is either controllable next season or performing badly enough to mute potential trade chatter (i.e. Jorge Soler, Greg Holland and Wade Davis). As a franchise, the Royals have shied away from a full-scale teardown and rebuild, so it might be a relatively quiet deadline season in K.C.

The Royals do have one impending free agent having a strong season, though: Danny Duffy. That’d generally make him a straightforward trade candidate, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that some rival executives do indeed expect the 32-year-old to change uniforms in the coming weeks. Certainly, Duffy’s 2.53 ERA/4.09 SIERA across 57 innings suggest he’d be an upgrade for most or all contenders’ rotations.

Duffy’s situation, though, could make a trade more difficult to pull off than appears at first glance. A flexor strain in his forearm knocked him out of action for more than a month earlier in the year. Duffy returned in late June, and he’s progressively building his workload at the major league level rather than embarking on a rehab assignment. He’s only once worked more than four innings since being activated, topping out at five frames and 77 pitches on July 8 against the Indians. There’s still a little more than two weeks before the deadline for him to continue to build back up, but some clubs might still harbor concerns about Duffy’s ability to shoulder a regular starter’s workload in the second half.

There’s also the personal implications to consider. Duffy’s a career-long Royal who hasn’t been shy about voicing his affinity for the organization in the past. He also exceeded ten years of major league service time last month. Players with ten years of MLB service, the past five of which have come with their current team, are entitled to full no-trade protection. If Duffy is completely set on finishing the year in Kansas City, he can block any deal. Sherman hears that Duffy, a California native, would prefer to be dealt to a West Coast club if he’s moved; that could suggest he’d be willing to waive his no-trade rights to facilitate the right deal, but it’s not entirely clear whether he’d need some type of concession to do so or whether he’d only approve a trade that involved a West Coast destination.

Duffy’s impending free agency adds another factor to the situation. A midseason trade wouldn’t foreclose the Royals from pursuing Duffy as a free agent this winter. Indeed, the organization has shown a proclivity for bringing back players — Holland, Davis, Mike Minor, Ervin Santana and Jarrod Dyson among them — who were one-time Royals who had since gone elsewhere. A trade could allow Kansas City to recoup some prospect value and give Duffy an opportunity to play in a 2021 pennant race without preventing the sides from reuniting in 2022.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether the demand from contenders will be sufficient to make that kind of deal worthwhile. It’s also still an open question whether Duffy’s amenable to a midseason move, making his trade candidacy more complicated than is normal for impending free agents having productive seasons for non-contending teams.

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