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Kyle Schwarber

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

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Phillies Notes: Schwarber, Knebel, Bullpen

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The Phillies, like most teams around the league, have plenty of work to do once the lockout is resolved and a new collective bargaining agreement is in place. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes the Phils “pursued [Kyle] Schwarber hard” prior to the lockout but weren’t able to finalize an agreement.

The 28-year-old Schwarber (29 in March) shook off a slow couple months to begin the 2021 season, ripping through MLB pitching at a Herculean clip throughout the summer and into the postseason. The longtime Cubs slugger inked a one-year deal with the Nats last winter, found himself traded to the Red Sox despite being on the injured list due to a hamstring injury, and finished the regular season with a combined .266/.374/.554 batting line and 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances. Schwarber added three more homers in the playoffs, though he closed out October with an 0-for-15 skid following an epic grand slam in Game 3 of the ALCS.

When finished, the new collective bargaining agreement is expected to include a universal designated hitter, which would make it easier for the Phillies (or another team) to slide the defensively challenged Schwarber into the lineup. He could still see some reps in left field or even at first base, of course, but Schwarber would be viewed largely as a much-needed bat to pair with reigning MVP Bryce Harper in Philadelphia.

Schwarber ought to have plenty of other suitors, as he’s been linked to the Red Sox, Nationals, Marlins and others since the offseason began. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported not long ago that Schwarber is seeking a deal of at least three years and $20MM annually, though with enough competition the asking price could obviously further increase.

While supplementing the lineup with some help for Harper is a major goal, it wasn’t the top priority for Philadelphia this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made clear that solidifying the ninth inning was one of his top needs this winter, and the Phils look to have checked that box already.

Corey Knebel and the Phillies got their one-year, $10MM contract in just hours before the expiration of the 2016-21 CBA, and he’s expected to serve as the team’s closer in 2022, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Dombrowski noted that he did not promise that role to Knebel (link viaNBC Philly’s Jim Salisbury), but he strongly suggested as much, telling reporters that Knebel opted for a one-year deal in order “to show people that he’s a dominant closer again” now that he’s healthier.

Knebel, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019, saw his fastball velocity jump two miles per hour from the 94.6 mph he averaged in his abbreviated return to the mound in 2020. While his 29.7% strikeout rate didn’t match the ridiculous 40.2% mark he posted in Milwaukee from 2017-18, it was nevertheless a strong mark and a reminder that Knebel can be as  dominant as any reliever in the game when at his best.

Gelb suggests that a subsequent acquisition of Craig Kimbrel is unlikely to be in the cards, as the Phils aren’t likely to want to commit $26.5MM to a pair of relievers. Still, Knebel certainly won’t be the only addition to the ’pen. Said Dombrowski: “We’ve got a guy that we think will close games for us, and that’s a big start. Then we can kind of build the rest of the bullpen.”

The addition of Knebel and the Phillies’ one-year, $1.4MM deal with utilityman Johan Camargo pushed the team’s payroll to a bit more than $181MM — with a near-identical tally in terms of luxury obligations, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That’s well shy of last year’s $197MM end-of-season payroll and the even-larger $206.5MM in luxury obligations the team carried. Assuming the $210MM luxury-tax threshold is ultimately increased in a new CBA, the Phils could have quite a bit more luxury breathing room than the $29MM they already possess at the moment.

The Status Of The Corner Outfield Market

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Free agent outfielder Kyle Schwarber is said to be asking for a three-year, $60MM contract, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins were exploring contracts with both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos before the lockout, ultimately coming to a four-year, $53MM agreement with Avisail Garcia instead. Miami also offered Starling Marte a four-year, $60MM offer before he signed with the Mets, notes Jackson.

The market for Schwarber remains robust, however, with many teams throughout the league in need of corner outfield help. The Red Sox – his most recent club – may be a less clean fit for Schwarber after re-acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and making the lineup that much more left-leaning, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey isn’t as sure that Schwarber’s being a left-handed hitter really represents a problem.

Beyond Schwarber and Castellanos, there remain a plethora of free agents capable of stationing in an outfield corner. Kris Bryant is the biggest name of the bunch, though his strongest suitors are likely to at least appreciate his glovework at the hot corner. World Series highlight generators Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Eddie Rosario remain available. Michael Conforto is the other big name still out there, though he has a qualifying offer attached, which may affect his market.

Brett Gardner, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Brian Goodwin, Alex Dickerson, and Corey Dickerson are some of the more attractive options out there with recent starting experience. In terms of specialists, Ender Inciarte, Roman Quinn, Kevin Pillar, and Jake Marisnick may fit the bill. There are also a fair number of multi-positional utility men out there, such as Niko Goodrum, Josh Harrison, Marwin Gonzalez, Danny Santana, and Brad Miller.

Marlins Notes: Schwarber, Marte, Castellanos, Pina, Gomes, Stallings

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The Marlins are known to be looking for more outfield help, with Kyle Schwarber already reported as one of the names on the team’s radar.  Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of The Miami Herald shed some more light on the Marlins’ pursuit, writing that Schwarber is looking for a three-year contract worth around $60MM.

Such a deal would top the Marlins’ four-year, $53MM pact with Avisail Garcia in dollars if not years, though it would also fall short of the four years and $70MM MLBTR projected Schwarber to land this winter.  Three years and $60MM is still a healthy sum, particularly for a team with Miami’s traditionally limited payrolls, yet the Marlins have already shown a greater willingness to spend in order to upgrade their offense.

The Phillies are another team that has been linked to Schwarber, while the Red Sox and Nationals (the slugger’s two most recent clubs) have also expressed some level of interest in a reunion.  Since several of the top free-agent bats have already landed new deals, Schwarber’s status as one of the top hitters available has only risen, so it’s fair to assume that other teams have already shown interest or will do so once the post-lockout dust settles.  It remains to be seen whether Schwarber’s market will develop to the point where the Marlins or any other club eventually puts a four-year offer on the table.

Of other outfielders linked to the Marlins, Nick Castellanos “is viewed as too expensive,” while Eddie Rosario is another consideration if Schwarber is also ultimately deemed to be beyond Miami’s price range.  Recent reports indicated that Castellanos is looking to score a seven- or eight-year contract, and even if that is an aim-high projection that could be lowered post-lockout, it would still seem like Castellanos might not be a fit for the Fish.  Additionally, signing Castellanos have a further cost in the form of draft pick compensation, since he rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.

The Marlins could possibly avoid the free agent route entirely by landing an outfielder in a trade, as before the lockout, Jackson and Mish note that Miami was in “ongoing discussions with one American League team.”  The in-house fallback plan would be to have Brian Anderson play right field and the newly-acquired Joey Wendle take over as the everyday third baseman, but the Fish would prefer to have an established outfielder on the grass rather than Anderson, even if Anderson has looked at home as an outfielder.  Anderson had a 7.9 UZR/150 and +6 Defensive Runs Saved over 1223 innings as a right fielder in 2018-19, but is also coming off an injury-plagued 2021 season.

Miami’s offseason pursuits led them to consider such players as Starling Marte, Manny Pina, and Yan Gomes, with the first two receiving contract offers.  For Marte, the Marlins and two other teams made four-year offers worth roughly $60MM, and according to Jackson/Mish, Miami was prepared to spend a little more to bring Marte back to South Beach.  Marte’s camp wanted something around a $70MM payday, however, and ended up topping that number handily with the $78MM over four years that Marte received from the Mets.

Pina was another player the Marlins lost to a division rival, as while the Fish offered Pina $4MM on a one-year deal, the Braves doubled that offer and signed Pina for two years and $8MM.  However, the Marlins instead landed a longer-term target in Jacob Stallings, acquiring the backstop from the Pirates for a three-player trade package.  Interestingly, Jackson/Mish write that the Red Sox came very close to trading for Stallings, which would have indicated the Sox were ready to move on from Christian Vazquez either next winter (2022 is Vazquez’s last year under contract) or perhaps this offseason if a trade partner could have been found.

Phillies Interested In Corey Knebel, Kyle Schwarber

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The Phillies have “serious interest” in free agent reliever Corey Knebel, report Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of the Athletic (on Twitter). Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia adds that the club is “making progress” in discussions with the right-hander and his representatives at Excel Sports Management.

The Dodgers acquired the former All-Star closer from the Brewers last offseason. Knebel missed a good chunk of the year on account of a right lat strain, but he was very effective when healthy enough to pitch. He tossed 25 2/3 innings over 27 appearances, working to a 2.45 ERA with a strong 29.7% strikeout percentage and an average 8.9% walk rate. Knebel also induced ground-balls at a solid 45.9% clip.

It was an all-around strong bounceback showing for the 30-year-old, who was limited to just 13 1/3 ineffective innings between 2019-20 on account of an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Perhaps most encouragingly, his average fastball velocity bounced back to 96.3 MPH after dipping to 94.3 MPH during his immediate return from TJS in 2020. Not coincidentally, his swinging strike rate rebounded from 7.2% to a 12.7% clip that’s only a touch below where Knebel worked during his peak seasons.

Were the Phillies to come to an agreement with Knebel, he’d be a key addition to a bullpen that stands out as one of the weaker areas on the roster. The outfield might be the other area of greatest need, and Salisbury adds that Philadelphia has interest in free agent corner outfielder Kyle Schwarber. After a down 2020, the former fourth overall pick rebounded to mash at a .266/.374/.554 clip across 471 plate appearances between the Nationals and Red Sox.

A run at Schwarber would be far more expensive than a pursuit of Knebel, of course. MLBTR forecasts a two-year, $18MM deal for Knebel, while Schwarber’s projected deal checks in at four years and $70MM. Schwarber, who was ineligible to be tagged with a qualifying offer by virtue of a midseason trade from Washington to Boston, has again been linked to both of his 2021 clubs as a free agent. The division-rival Marlins have also been floated as a possibility as they try to rebuild their own outfield.

Marlins In Market For Outfielders Even After Garcia Deal

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The Marlins aren’t 24 hours removed from agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports they’re still seeking offensive upgrades (all Twitter links). Outfielders appear the priority, with Heyman listing Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor and Eddie Rosario among the possible targets.

Miami already guaranteed $53MM to Garcia over the next four seasons — a hefty splash by their typically modest standards. It’d be a surprise to see them follow that up by signing any of Castellanos, Schwarber or Taylor, as all three are expected to top that four-year deal landed by Garcia. Castellanos is reported to be seeking a contract of as many as seven or eight years in length, though it seems likely he’ll ultimately settle in a bit shy of that mark. Even still, there’s a good chance he’ll double the Garcia total.

Schwarber and Taylor, meanwhile, could both land larger four- or even five-year deals than Garcia signed. Schwarber parlayed a huge season between Washington and Boston into a strong free-agent stock, while Taylor has long been a steady super-utility piece for the Dodgers, He’d give Miami an option in center field for at least the first season or two of the deal — something they very much crave — and he’d give them some cover in the infield as well. That could be particularly appealing to Miami after the Marlins saw each of Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson miss significant time in 2021.

Rosario, 30, seems like a more viable fit in Miami than the other names on the list — at least from a price perspective. The longtime Twins outfielder was non-tendered by Minnesota last winter, signed a one-year deal in Cleveland and found himself headed to the Braves in what amounted to a deadline salary dump. Rosario took off in Atlanta, however, returning from the injured list to slash .271/.330/.573 in his final 106 plate appearances. His heater continued into the postseason, where he won NLCS MVP honors. Even with a quiet World Series, Rosario still posted a massive .383/.456/.617 slash in 68 playoff plate appearances.

Streaky play of that nature has been the norm throughout Rosario’s career. In general, he’s a free-swinging left fielder with plenty of power but a low walk rates and dwindling defensive ratings. Dating back to the 2017 season, Rosario is a .278/.315/.484 hitter, but those numbers have tailed off in recent years. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg Rosario as a decent left fielder, but not the standout defender he was in 2018. Statcast’s Outs Above Average, however, graded Rosario harshly and ranked him worst among all MLB outfielders (-18).

Both Castellanos and Taylor rejected qualifying offers, meaning they’d cost the Marlins their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Schwarber and Rosario were ineligible to receive qualifying offers by virtue of being traded midseason (though only Schwarber would’ve commanded one).

Nationals Notes: Soto, Schwarber, Front Office

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Before Juan Soto signs an extension with the Nationals, “the first thing that’s going to have to happen is that he knows that he’s working with an ownership that’s going to annually try to compete and win,” agent Scott Boras told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty and other reporters.  “And then I think once he knows that, then he’ll be ready to sit down and talk whenever they choose to talk.”

Soto’s time in D.C. has already produced one World Series title, of course, and the Nationals have been one of the league’s better terms over the last decade, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo noted to Dougherty and company.  That said, the Nats have also finished in last place in both seasons since that 2019 championship, and traded away a significant amount of veteran talent at the last trade deadline.  It seems like the team will reload to some extent this offseason, but it is unclear whether or not the Nationals will make a full-on plunge to try and compete as soon as 2022.

Rizzo did make some indication towards a bigger push this winter, as when asked if he would like to see Kyle Schwarber back in Washington, Rizzo responded with “Why wouldn’t we? I love him.”  (hat tip to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe)  After being non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, Schwarber signed in D.C. for a one-year deal worth $10MM in guaranteed money, but his price tag for a return will be much steeper after his huge bounce-back season.  Bringing Schwarber back would be a clear sign of the Nationals’ intent to contend, and he would also give Soto some much-needed lineup protection.

Even amidst the team’s struggles in 2021, Soto continued to make his case as arguably the game’s best hitter.  Soto hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs over 654 plate appearances, and has now produced four all-world seasons before his 23rd birthday.  Given Soto’s youth and his already-incredible production, it is very easy to imagine that a Soto extension would be the most expensive contract in baseball history.

Soto is projected to earn $16.2MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, a massive raise commensurate with his continued great numbers.  Though Soto is still under arbitration control through 2024 as a Super Two player, “we’re not in the mind-set where we got him under control for three more years and have three years to wait. That’s not our view,” Rizzo said.  The Nationals might not immediately jump into deep extension talks, however, as Rizzo said the club will wait until after the new collective bargaining agreement is settled “just to see what the rules are” for baseball’s business going forward.

In the more immediate future, Rizzo is focused on making another change to the Nats’ front office.  In another piece from Dougherty, Rizzo said the team is going to hire a new director of player development, and candidates from both within and outside the organization will be considered.  Assistant GM Mark Scialabba had been in charge of player development but will now move to the player personnel division, while former baseball ops coordinator John Wulf has been promoted to assistant director of player development.

Free Agent Notes: Verlander, Schwarber, Heaney

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Justin Verlander will hold a showcase for scouts and evaluators tomorrow, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (Twitter links).  This is the first time Verlander will throw in front of evaluators from other teams since his Tommy John surgery in September 2020.  Multiple teams are expected to have personnel on hand, if just as a matter of simple due diligence rather than a clear interest in signing Verlander on the free agent market.  As WFAN’s Sweeny Murti observes, it probably safe to assume the Yankees will have personnel on hand — Verlander is throwing at a Cressey Sports Performance facility, and Eric Cressey is the Yankees’ director of player health and performance.

It stands to reason that Verlander will probably hold multiple showcases in order to prove that his arm has recovered from the TJ procedure, and that he’ll be ready to roll when Spring Training camps open.  The timing of a second showcase could be particularly important, however, since Verlander has until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the qualifying offer extended by the Astros today.  If Verlander throws well and gets some good buzz coming out of Monday’s session, it could make him lean against taking the one-year, $18.4MM offer to return to Houston, if he gets an indication that at least one other club is interested in making him a more lucrative multi-year deal on the open market.

More from the free agent market….

  • J.D. Martinez’s decision to pass on his opt-out clause will keep the veteran slugger in Boston for another season, though it doesn’t mean that free agent Kyle Schwarber is necessarily roadblocked from a return to the Red Sox.  Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier) that the Sox have already been in touch with Schwarber and will continue to monitor his market throughout the winter.  Martinez’s role as the regular DH and a fill-in outfielder might be the ideal spot for Schwarber, as while Schwarber did okay at first base for someone who had never played the position before, he probably isn’t a viable solution at first over the longer term (plus, the Sox have Bobby Dalbec and prospect Triston Casas ready for more first base time).  However, Schwarber hit so well during his two-plus months in Boston that it isn’t surprising that the club will look to get creative in trying to find a fit for him in the lineup.  For his part, Schwarber said after the ALCS that he would be interested in a return to the Sox.
  • Despite Andrew Heaney’s very rough 2021 season, several teams are eyeing the left-hander as a possible bounce-back candidate.  The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) lists the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Nationals as some of the teams interested in the free agent hurler.  Heaney still had above-average strikeout and walk rates last year, as most of his problems stemmed from an inability to avoid home runs — Heaney allowed a whopping 29 homers over his 129 2/3 innings with the Angels and Yankees.

Kyle Schwarber Declines Mutual Option

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Red Sox outfielder Kyle Schwarber declined his half of an $11.5MM mutual option and is now a free agent, per the Associated Press. Schwarber signed a one-year, $10MM contract with the Nationals last winter — a deal that guaranteed him a $7MM salary in 2021 plus a $3MM buyout on the option he’s now declined. The Red Sox will not be able to issue a qualifying offer, as he’s ineligible to receive one after being traded from Washington to Boston midseason.

Kyle Schwarber | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

It was a season to remember for the 28-year-old Schwarber, who opened the year with a rather pedestrian two-month stretch in D.C. before embarking on one of the great hot streaks in the history of Major League Baseball. The former No. 4 overall draft pick carried a .218/.312/.404 batting line through his first 215 plate appearances in Washington, making the Cubs’ decision to non-tender him the prior winter look at least somewhat justified. From that point forth, however, Schwarber found another gear and delivered the best production of his career.

On June 12, Schwarber went 1-for-3 with a solo homer in the first game of a doubleheader. An inauspicious game in and of itself, that kicked off a prodigious stretch that saw Schwarber blast a near-unfathomable 16 home runs in a span of 18 games — a total of just 77 plate appearances. From June 12 through July 2, Schwarber posted a Herculean .338/.409/.974 batting line. It looked as though no pitcher could stop Schwarber at that point, but unfortunately for both him and the Nats, an injury could. A hamstring strain landed Schwarber on the injured list on July 3, and during his absence, a free-falling Nats club engineered a rare (for them) fire sale that saw an injured Schwarber traded to the Red Sox.

The Sox knew full well that Schwarber wouldn’t be ready for a bit at the time of his acquisition, but his activation on Aug. 13 was rather surprising. The Sox, facing some dire needs in the lineup, reinstated Schwarber from the injured list after a six-week layoff without even sending him out on a minor league rehab assignment. And yet, despite being dropped cold into the throes of the AL East, Schwarber immediately resumed his juggernaut status at the plate.

In 168 plate appearances down the stretch with the Sox, Schwarber mashed at a .291/.435/.522 clip with seven home runs and 10 doubles. The hot streak carried on into the postseason, where Schwarber opened with a 9-for-32 showing with three home runs — including an epic Game 3 ALCS grand slam. That proved to finally be the stopping point for Schwarber, however, as he was held hitless in his next 16 plate appearances as the Astros came back to topple the Sox and end their season.

Schwarber played in just 113 regular season games but nevertheless belted 32 home runs while slashing a stout .266/.374/.554 with a 13.6% walk rate and a 27.0% strikeout rate. He won’t win any awards for his glovework in the outfield, and his brief foray at first base wasn’t exactly smooth sailing. However, the the likely advent of the designated hitter in the National League and a mammoth showing at the plate, Schwarber should see a robust market for his services this winter.

Teams may still have some questions about Schwarber’s ability to handle lefties. He hit .268/.389/.398 against them in 2021, albeit with a .377 average on balls in play and in only 149 plate appearances. In 435 prior plate appearances against southpaws, from 2015-20, Schwarber managed only a .197/.301/.348 output. He did cut his strikeout rate and improve his walk rate against southpaws in 2021, however, so the gains weren’t solely BABIP-driven. The extent to which he can sustain (or build upon) those improvements against lefties will be pivotal to Schwarber’s market, but regardless, he’s positioned himself as one of the top bats of the offseason.

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