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Bullpen Notes: Miller, O’Day, Soria, Madson

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The Yankees are reportedly open to nearly any scenario this winter, and according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, that includes trading Andrew Miller. While Heyman is careful to note that the scenario isn’t likely and the Yankees aren’t actively shopping their excellent closer, other clubs have said that Miller’s name is “out there a bit,” as Heyman puts it. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News applauds GM Brian Cashman’s open-mindedness (Twitter link). He speculates that the Yankees could flip Miller for immediate help and then trade prospects to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres, leaving the 2016 club improved overall. The Yankees already have a dominant late-inning arm that could step into the ninth inning in place of Miller, of course, in Dellin Betances, though there’s certainly something to be said for having a pair of shutdown arms to handle the final two-plus innings of a game.

A few more notes from the relief market as the GM Meetings get underway…

  • Preliminary interest in Darren O’Day is “steep,” tweets Heyman, who adds that the Tigers, Cubs, Nationals, Red Sox, Royals and Dodgers are all in at this stage. The 32-year-old O’Day is probably the top relief arm on the market, as he’s coming off a dominant stretch in which he posted a 1.92 ERA in 263 innings over a four-year stretch spanning 2012-15. O’Day landed 33rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, with Tim Dierkes projecting a three-year deal worth about $22.5MM.
  • The Tigers will meet with the representatives for right-hander Joakim Soria at the GM Meetings this week, according to Tony Paul of the Detroit News (links to Twitter). The Tigers traded Soria to the Pirates at this summer’s non-waiver deadline, but that move was carried out by the since-departed Dave Dombrowski, and it stands to reason that new GM Al Avila, who is known to be seeking bullpen upgrades, could want Soria back in the ninth inning in Detroit. Paul adds that the Tigers’ preference between O’Day and Soria could come down to who is more willing to sign first, as the team will want to move onto other needs/targets relatively quickly.
  • Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets that Ryan Madson, who picked up a World Series ring and emphatically re-established himself as a quality big league setup man with the Royals this season, is seeking a multi-year deal on the free agent market. That’s not a huge surprise given the lack of elite relief arms on the free agent market this season and the strong results he delivered in 2015. Madson tallied a 2.13 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings with Kansas City this season. He struggled in the ALDS and ALCS before turning in three very strong World Series innings. Tim pegged Madson for a three-year deal in the $15MM range in the aforementioned Top 50 list.

Latest On Byung-ho Park

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8:52am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the White Sox aren’t the winner, either. That leaves the Brewers and Twins in addition to the Cubs and Reds, though the latter duo doesn’t have much of a spot for Park to play (unless Cincinnati feels he can handle left field). Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported last week that the Twins have scouted Park quite a bit, though the Brewers seem to be a better fit from a roster standpoint, in my eyes.

8:37am: Heyman also eliminates the Rockies and the Phillies from the mix (via Twitter). That leaves the Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox and Twins as the remaining options. As I noted before, the presence of Joey Votto in Cincinnati and Anthony Rizzo on the Cubs’ roster makes that pair of NL teams seem like long shots, to say the least. The White Sox and Twins each have long-term first base options in Jose Abreu and Joe Mauer, though Park could certainly split time at first and DH with either player.

8:22am: The Astros didn’t submit the winning bid for Park, either, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

NOV. 9, 7:29am: We’re down to seven possibilities on the mystery team for Park, as ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel (Twitter link) report that the Pirates have not won the bidding.

There have been reports eliminating all but seven teams from the Park bidding, leaving the Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox, Twins and Astros as possibilities. And while the Reds and Cubs are technically possibilities, it’d be surprising to see either NL club post the winning bid on a first baseman, given the stars that each has entrenched at that position. The Rockies haven’t been completely ruled out, though the report below seems to indicate they’re more of a long shot than anything else at this point.

Alan Nero, Park’s agent at Octagon, tells Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that even he does not yet know which club won the bidding, adding that both league offices were closed over the weekend (Twitter link).

NOV. 8, 9:51pm: The winning bid wasn’t posted by the Royals or Braves, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter links).  “It’s safe to assume” the Rays didn’t have the winning bid either, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin tweets.

9:10pm: The Athletics and Marlins also didn’t have the top bid, Heyman tweets.

7:24pm: The Mariners and Diamondbacks didn’t place bids on Park, as per tweets from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman and Zach Buchanan of AZCentral.com.  Also, the Giants can be eliminated from contention, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  The Rockies might also be out, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding doesn’t “think anything is happening there.”

2:39pm: Italian artist Michelangelo is famously misquoted as saying that he sculpted the historic David statue by chipping away the parts that did not look like David.  Perhaps that is how we will whittle down the field of suitors for first baseman Byung-Ho Park until we unravel the mystery team that submitted the winning bid to negotiate with the Korean star.  Failing that, we might just have to wait until Monday, when the announcement is formally made.

On Friday, Korea’s Nexen Heroes accepted a $12.85MM bid on the rights to negotiate a big league contract with Park.  As of today, we still don’t know which MLB club won the posting process, but one team out there now has a thirty day window with which to hammer out a deal with one of the winter’s most intriguing and mysterious free agents.

The Blue Jays are not the winning team, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter), and the winning bid was not submitted by the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, or Angels, either (link),  The Cardinals, who are looking at various first base options, tendered an unsuccessful bid for the 29-year-old, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  James Wagner of the Washington Post (on Twitter) heard that the Nats did not have interest.  Late last week, the Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Orioles, Padres, and Red Sox were also crossed off the list by various reporters.

If Park and his new club do not reach agreement on a contract, Nexen will lose out on the posting fee and the winning team will have to move on to a Plan B at first base.  The reported $12.85MM fell shy of the $25MM+ posting amount commanded by lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it easily tops what the Pirates paid Nexen last year (~$5MM) for the rights to reach a deal with infielder Jung-Ho Kang. After the team-to-team transfer was arrived at, Kang and the Bucs agreed to a four-year, $11MM guarantee.

In the recently-released list of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, Tim Dierkes predicted that Park would command a $10MM posting fee and a five-year, $40MM contract from the winning team. The first part of that was close, but it remains to be seen how negotiations will proceed.

Heyman’s Latest: Free Agents, O’Day, Gordon, Hunter

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CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman shares his predictions about where this offseason’s top 50 free agents will earn in their next contracts.  Be sure to check out MLBTR’s own top 50 free agents list, as Heyman and Tim Dierkes have a few interesting differences over some contract values and where some players are ranked within the top 50.  In other news from Heyman, his latest Inside Baseball column recaps several items that he and others have reported over the last few weeks, as well as some fresh hot stove tidbits…

  • The Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox and Tigers are among the many teams who have already shown interest in Darren O’Day.  It’s no surprise that quartet has been particularly eager to check in with O’Day given how all four teams are known to be hunting for bullpen upgrades this winter.  The Orioles, the righty reliever’s former team, “are trailing at present.”
  • The Royals will look to re-sign Alex Gordon but are hoping to do so on a three- or four-year contract.  Given how Gordon’s well-rounded game makes him a fit on several teams, he’ll easily top the three-year plateau and even four might be a pipe dream for Kansas City unless the Royals inflate his average annual value.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Gordon will land a five-year contract worth $105MM.
  • We’ve already heard that the Twins were disappointed by Torii Hunter’s retirement, and beyond the loss of his clubhouse leadership, Heyman adds that the team will miss him from an on-field standpoint as well.  Hunter would’ve been an insurance policy since the Twins aren’t sure if former top prospect Byron Buxton is ready for an everyday job.  Buxton’s rookie season was a forgettable one, as he hit .209/.250/.326 over 138 plate appearances and also spent about seven weeks on the DL with a sprained thumb.

Outrighted: Ruggiano, Heisey, Wilson, Perez, Beliveau, Elmore, Perez, Sadler, Cumpton

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Teams are continuing to prune their 40-man rosters as decisions arise, and there were a number of outrights over the last day or two. We’ll cover them all here:

  • The Dodgers outrighted both Justin Ruggiano and Chris Heisey, with both outfielders electing free agency after clearing waivers, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links). Ruggiano and Heisey were both added very late in the season — in the latter’s case, re-acquired — and saw limited action overall. It’s worth noting, though, that Ruggiano turned things on after he was demoted early on by the Mariners, raking at Triple-A and even slashing a cool .291/.350/.618 in his sixty plate appearances in Los Angeles. The 33-year-old will be an interesting bench target for teams looking to add a threat against southpaws.
  • Catcher Bobby Wilson refused an assignment with the Rangers after clearing outright waivers, as executive VP of communications John Blake announced on Twitter. The 32-year-old spent time with both the Rays and Rangers last year, continuing to serve as a fill-in backstop who does not contribute much at the plate.
  • Likewise, outfielder Juan Perez is headed for free agency after he was outrighted by the Giants, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Perez, 28, has received 246 total plate appearances over the last three years in San Francisco, compiling a meager .224/.267/.316 batting line. He’s spent most of his time in recent years at the Triple-A level.
  • Lefty Jeff Beliveau and infielder Jake Elmore have elected free agency after losing their 40-man spots with the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. Beliveau impressed in 2014, striking out 28 batters and allowing just seven earned runs in 24 frames, but missed most of 2015 after undergoing shoulder surgery. The 28-year-old Elmore, meanwhile, managed to rack up a career-high 158 plate appearances last year in Tampa Bay, but he slashed just .206/.263/.284.
  • Also hitting the open market is infielder Hernan Perez, who the Brewers outrighted, per a club announcement. He’ll qualify as a minor league free agent. The 24-year-old got a 90-game audition in Milwaukee after being claimed from the Tigers, but slashed .270/.281/.365 and apparently did not force his way into the organization’s plans.
  • Finally, injured righties Casey Sadler and Brandon Cumpton have lost their 40-man spots with the Pirates, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. Neither has spent a significant amount of time in the big leagues, though Sadler has debuted and Cumpton did throw just over 100 frames over 2013-14. Both will factor as rotation and pen depth if and when they are ready to return from their respective arm surgeries.

Dodgers Decline Options On Arroyo, Peralta, Utley

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The Dodgers have declined the team’s club options on starter Bronson Arroyo, reliever Joel Peralta, and infielder Chase Utley, the team announced (h/t to J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group, on Twitter). That trio will all hit the open market with the move. It would be hard to call any of the decisions a surprise, as all three veterans had their issues in 2015.

The aging Arroyo missed the entire year with Tommy John surgery, but still changed hands twice. He was moved to the Dodgers as part of a huge trade deadline swap with the Braves, who had previously taken on his salary in order to add prospect Touki Toussaint. The $4.5MM buyout on his $11MM option, then, will remain the responsibility of the Atlanta organization.

Peralta’s deal, which was signed with the Rays when now-Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was in charge there, included three successive $2.5MM options. None include buyout obligations. The first of those was picked up, but the 2016 version proved too costly after Peralta managed only 29 innings of 4.34 ERA pitching on the year. (More worrisome, perhaps, are his fading strikeout numbers and time missed due to a neck injury.)

As for Utley, who was picked up in an August swap, the $2MM buyout on his $15MM vesting option will be paid by the Phillies. Utley’s contract, like Peralta’s, included a trio of options. A mid-season break due to ongoing ankle issues kept Utley shy of the vesting requirement (500 plate appearances), and the 36-year-old never really got going at the plate with either organization. He ended up with a composite .212/.286/.343 batting line — by far his lowest output since he established himself as a regular in 2005.

Dodgers To Make Qualifying Offers To Anderson, Kendrick, Greinke

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The Dodgers will make the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to left-hander Brett Anderson, second baseman Howie Kendrick and right-hander Zack Greinke, reports Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles (via Twitter).

Greinke was among the easiest calls for qualifying offers, as the potential NL Cy Young winner is likely to more than double the $71MM that remained on his contract at the time he opted out. Kendrick was a bit less likely, but considering the number of clubs that could look at him as a second base option this winter, a lucrative multi-year deal was likely enough to call the decision widely expected.

Anderson, though, was on the fringes of the potential QO market. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported last month that the plan was to extend him the QO despite his spotty track record of health, and he’ll now be faced with the tough decision of whether to try for the security of a multi-year deal on the open market or the immediate benefit of a $15.8MM salary.

Anderson has youth on his side but threw just over 200 innings combined in the four seasons prior to his most recent 180-inning campaign with the Dodgers. Formerly a top prospect and one of the most promising young arms in baseball, Anderson’s career has been throttled by injuries that have kept him from taking the mound with anything resembling regularity. That changed in 2015, and he led the Majors with a ground-ball rate north of 66 percent when he was finally healthy enough to stick on the field for a full year. He doesn’t miss many bats, but teams in smaller parks or teams that highly value ground-balls will be intrigued by the upside still present in Anderson’s 27-year-old arm.

J.P. Howell To Exercise Player Option

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Left-hander J.P. Howell will exercise his $6.25MM player option with the Dodgers, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The 32-year-old Legacy Agency client will forgo free agency this offseason in order to return to the L.A. bullpen for a fourth consecutive season.

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Howell is coming off an excellent season in the Dodgers’ bullpen, having logged a 1.43 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 60.3 percent ground-ball rate in 44 innings of work. His strong production continued what has been a dominant run since joining the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season, as Howell has compiled a brilliant 1.97 ERA in his 155 innings with Los Angeles.

That strong track track record makes it at least worth wondering if Howell could’ve landed a multi-year deal in a market that is thin on left-handed relievers with lengthy track records of success — Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp were likely his top competition — but it’s also probably fair to assume that he wouldn’t have received as large of an annual salary. And, there’s something to be said for returning to a familiar situation that has led to personal success and three consecutive division titles for the team.

Howell did have his struggles in 2015, specifically when it came to facing right-handed hitters. While he hadn’t dealt with platoon issues in his two prior years with the Dodgers, right-handed hitters knocked Howell around to the tune of a .318/.368/.455 batting line. Perhaps that split played a role in his decision to accept the option, although there’s certainly a case to be made that it was more a function of poor luck than anything skill-related. Right-handed hitters posted a sky-high .368 BABIP against Howell in 2015 that was worlds higher than his career mark of .293.

Howell’s return to Los Angeles means that he’ll again help serve as a bridge to one of the game’s best closers in the form of Kenley Jansen. Exactly which other names will constitute the back end of the Dodger bullpen is unclear, as the team has myriad options in the late innings. Luis Avilan and Ian Thomas serve as left-handed options to potentially complement Howell, while right-handers such as Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Juan Nicasio and Yimi Garcia, among others, could constitute the right-handed setup crew. Of course, given the active nature of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi, it certainly won’t be surprising to see the Dodgers shuffle their relief corps, to some extent, by dealing some of those arms and possibly bringing in external help in order to solidify a bullpen that is deep in options but lacking in proven arms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Zack Greinke Opts Out Of Contract

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Dodgers righty Zack Greinke has officially opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. The widely-expected move puts him onto the open market as one of the league’s most appealing free agents.

Greinke signed with Los Angeles as a free agent before the 2013 season, locking up a $147MM guarantee over six seasons. That was a nice enough payday as it was, but his representatives at Excel Sports Management were also wise to negotiate a provision allowing the veteran to opt out after the 2015 season. He’ll give up a guarantee of three years and $71MM, but Greinke figures to earn quite a bit more than that on the open market.

While Greinke is now 32 years of age, he’s also coming off of a sublime 2015 campaign. He led the league with a 1.66 ERA over 222 2/3 frames. Greinke retired 8.1 batters per nine via strikeout and induced a 48.0% groundball rate while permitting only 1.6 BB/9 and a league-low 0.844 WHIP.

There were some fortunate elements to Greinke’s campaign, to be sure. He allowed a .228 BABIP, 86.5% strand rate, and 7.3% HR/FB rate, all of which were on the beneficial side as against his career norms. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators did not quite support the incredible run prevention that resulted.

That’s not to take away from Greinke’s accomplishment or his value. He’s long been one of the league’s better pitchers, and always seemed destined to opt out and cash in. But it’s fair to say, too, that he timed his career-best season perfectly.

Heyman’s Latest: Davis, Zobrist, Zunino

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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports takes a look at Pete Rose’s chances for reinstatement in his latest Inside Baseball column. The short version: he has no chance. Heyman has a lot to say on the topic, but it all boils down to a conservative mindset among baseball’s decision makers. While Rose, 74, is relatively harmless, the commissioner’s office won’t take the tiny risk associated with reinstatement. Commissioner Rob Manfred granted Rose a hearing in September and is expected to issue a ruling before the end of the year.

Here’s more from the column:

  • Orioles owner Peter Angelos is making a push to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis. The slugger is entering his age 30 season after posting 13 WAR and 126 home runs over the last three seasons. Davis hit .262/.361/.562 last year with 47 home runs. However, he’s sandwiched two superstar campaigns around a replacement level 2014, making him a high risk, high reward target in free agency. Heyman does not expect Davis to sign before talking with other clubs.
  • The Royals are unlikely to re-sign Ben Zobrist. The club acquired him to fill in for the injured Alex Gordon, then used him to replace injured Omar Infante. The club’s former second baseman will be back and presumably healthy next season. Zobrist’s defensive profile at second base also leaves something to be desired.
  • Marlins manager Don Mattingly hopes to bring pitching coach Rick Honeycutt and coach Tim Wallach with him from the Dodgers. However, L.A. hopes to keep both coaches. Honeycutt is a long standing member of the Dodgers’ coaching staff, but Wallach may search for a new job if he’s passed over for the open manager job.
  • Scouts are worried that Mike Zunino may have to overcome a psychological hurdle. He was widely viewed as unready for a promotion to the majors in 2013, and the Mariners have allowed him to scuffle through the last three campaigns. His biggest issue is a 32 percent strikeout rate which has led to a .193/.252/.353 triple-slash.

Cafardo On Kapstein, Amaro, Mattingly, Zobrist, Kapler

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In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed the role of former Red Sox advisor Jeremy Kapstein. Newly installed club president Dave Dombrowski did not extend Kapstein’s contract. The former player agent had worked with the Red Sox for 14 years as a senior advisor of baseball projects. Kapstein once represented a number of top players and was among the first to use statistics in arbitration cases. He’ll seek a new role elsewhere.

Here’s more from the column:

  • Freshly minted first base and outfield coach Ruben Amaro Jr. is already familiar with many of Boston’s outfielders. While with the Phillies, he pursued Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and prospect Manuel Margot in trade negotiations for Cole Hamels. Former Phillies closer Brad Lidge noted that Amaro was comfortable spending time in the clubhouse with players, so he should adjust well to his new role.
  • Don Mattingly is the Marlins eighth manager in the last six seasons. The last manager, Dan Jennings, was recently let go after he was told he would return to his former job as GM. The club owes him about $2MM. Mattingly is said to have agreed to a four-year deal although financial details have yet to be disclosed. Marlins fans may recall the four-year, $10MM contract signed by Ozzie Guillen prior to 2012. It serves as a warning to Mattingly that a long term of contract or high AAV will not ensure job security in Miami.
  • As reported earlier this week, Ben Cherington has joined the sports management program at Columbia University. That hasn’t stopped the Pirates from pursuing him for a front office role. Cafardo wonders if Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro might show interest too. In my opinion, the Blue Jays job might not be a fit since Cherington walked away from a similar situation in Boston.
  • One AL executive worries about Ben Zobrist’s age. “Ben is 35 years old. He keeps in great shape and does the job, but he’s not someone you’re going to devote big dollars to over a long-term deal.” Of course, his agent, Alan Nero, believes a three or four-year deal should be well within reach. Nero and the Royals have not discussed an extension.
  • The Orioles will bring back pitching coach Dave Wallace. According to a source, manager Buck Showalter asked him to stay. The Orioles pitching staff had a rough season after outperforming their peripherals for a few years. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The club also has to carefully manage top prospect Dylan Bundy. He’s missed most of the last three seasons after making a couple relief appearances as a 19-year-old in 2012. He’ll be out of options.
  • Team sources label Gabe Kapler has the leading candidate for the Dodgers managerial job. Kapler “speaks the same language” as president Andrew Friedman and they have an established working relationship. While Kapler has not managed in the majors, he “drew rave reviews” while managing with the Red Sox Single-A affiliate.
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