Zack Greinke Market Beginning To Heat Up
The market for free-agent ace Zack Greinke is “quietly heating up,” tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Both the Dodgers and Giants are looking for some clarity in regards to their pursuit of the right-hander, according to Crasnick, who hears that the Excel Sports client is seeking $30MM annually.
As Crasnick notes, that annual target is a challenge for teams interested in Greinke not only due to its own enormity but also due to the fact that Greinke is older than the typical free-agent starter, set to embark on his age-32 campaign in 2016. Most recent multi-year deals of the magnitude Greinke is expected to command conclude in the pitcher’s age-36 season (at least in terms of guaranteed money), but that would cap Greinke at five years. Considering the historically excellent season he just delivered in 2015, however, it’s easy to envision Greinke’s camp seeking six or more years on a free-agent deal.
After all, Greinke’s 1.66 ERA was the lowest single-season mark by a qualified starting pitcher in the past two decades. He logged 222 2/3 innings in the regular season, averaging 8.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 and went on to toss 13 2/3 very solid innings in the playoffs as well. Greinke has been nothing short of brilliant in his three years with the Dodgers, compiling a 2.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 regular-season innings, plus a strikingly similar 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 postseason innings.
Greinke’s age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer are both knocks against him when compared to his primary competitors — David Price and Johnny Cueto — but Greinke is also coming off the best season of the three. Beyond that, the general consensus among scouts seems to be that Greinke will age better than many of his elite peers, somewhat lessening the sting of committing a contract of significant length. In addition to the Dodgers and Giants, Greinke has also been linked to the Red Sox and Cubs, though other large-market, high-payroll teams figure to have privately expressed some interest as well.
Rosenthal On Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cueto, Ross
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new notes column that contains quite a few Hot Stove related items. Some highlights from his latest piece…
- There’s a belief in the industry that the Cardinals‘ new television deal — which begins in 2018, when it will net the team $50MM and continue to rise to about $86MM, per Forbes — could allow the team to sign two premium free agents. Rosenthal adds, though, that the Cardinals could nonetheless be uncomfortable making the top bid for David Price or Jason Heyward and might be “reluctant” to commit the type of dollars Chris Davis will command.
- Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
- The Dodgers have at least discussed the possibility of signing both Greinke and Price internally, according to Rosenthal, but they’re unlikely to go that route. Even the Dodgers and their seemingly limitless budget aren’t keen on the notion of paying three starters in the vicinity of $30MM annually, and they already have one such pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
- That J.A. Happ landed a $36MM total from the Blue Jays could serve to increase the leverage that teams like the Indians and Rays have in talks for their starting pitchers. One exec told Rosenthal that “mediocre pitching” now costs a minimum of $30MM total. While that’s true enough, I don’t know that the Happ signing necessarily brought that realization about. We’ve seen players like Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and Ricky Nolasco clear the $30MM barrier in recent seasons, after all, and Happ’s final push in Pittsburgh shows he’s at least capable of pitching at a high level if those adjustments can be sustained.
- The D-Backs‘ interest in Johnny Cueto stems, in part, from the fact that he’s not tied to draft pick compensation. Arizona selects 13th overall next season and values that pick, Rosenthal writes. The team is reluctant to part with one of the top overall unprotected picks and probably isn’t likely to part with it for a second-tier starter (e.g. Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen). Arizona has already been tied to both Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, either of whom could bolster the rotation without harming next year’s draft.
- The Padres are still receiving plenty of interest in right-hander Tyson Ross but are only willing to move him for a “monster package,” as Rosenthal terms it. Ross is controlled for two more seasons, and MLBTR projects him to earn $10MM in 2016.
- Prior to Colby Rasmus accepting their qualifying offer, the Astros considered making a run at Brett Gardner or a similar type of player to fill the club’s leadoff slot, per Rosenthal. Now, however, they’ll likely use Jose Altuve there as the primary option again in 2016.
MLB To Investigate Yasiel Puig For Role In Bar Incident
11:29pm: A police spokesman says that the department is not aware of any allegation that Puig was involved in any physical altercation with his sister, Hernandez reports (Twitter links). If that holds true, then it certainly seems that any domestic violence-related inquiry will be short-lived. Of course, it remains possible that other disciplinary measures could be considered.
9:09pm: The MLB commissioner’s office will investigate Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig under its new domestic violence policy for his role in a reported barroom altercation on Wednesday night, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports. Renato Bermudez of ESPN Deportes first reported the incident on Twitter.
A report from TMZ Sports suggested that Puig “pushed” his sister at the bar, precipitating a larger conflict and apparently bringing the matter within the purview of the investigatory provisions of the still-untested policy. The account given by a Miami police spokesperson, via the Associated Press, refers only to an “argument” between Puig and his sister and a scuffle between the outfielder and a bouncer. Commissioner Rob Manfred is tasked with investigating “all allegations of domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse in the Baseball community.”
Puig will not be charged in relation to the incident, though that fact would not insulate him from action by the commissioner’s office. The domestic violence policy specifically provides that punishment may be levied regardless of whether criminal charges are brought or a conviction achieved. (Specifically, it says that “the Commissioner can issue the discipline he believes is appropriate in light of the severity of the conduct.”)
It’s far from clear at this point how the investigation will proceed, let alone what kinds of repercussions could be expected. The domestic violence policy has yet to be applied, though the league recently opened an investigation into Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes after he was arrested and later charged with assaulting his wife.
Prospect Notes: Rule 5, Peraza, AFL
Though it won’t take place until the end of the Winter Meetings, the stage has been set for the Rule 5 draft, as teams re-set their 40-man rosters in preparation. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper breaks down the players who weren’t protected and thus remain eligible to be plucked away. Cooper writes that we’re unlikely to see a repeat of last year’s incredible Rule 5 success rate, but still manages to come up with a large group of players who could draw interest. Best of all, they are sorted by player type (e.g., “inexperienced pitchers with great arms”).
Here are a few more prospect-related links to check out:
- MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo answered reader questions in a mailbag today. Among other topics, he talks about the status of Dodgers second baseman Jose Peraza. The club ought to give him a chance to win regular playing time this spring, Mayo argues.
- Mayo also recently listed ten standout prospects from the just-concluded Arizona Fall League. This group doesn’t reflect the players with the highest prospect standing from the fall league, but rather those that most improved their standing during the short season. Among them is Cardinals infielder Aledmys Diaz, who was outrighted last year but finished with a robust .315/.370/.616 line in Arizona and was added back to the 40-man roster.
- Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen took a detailed look at the fall league results. Catcher Gary Sanchez of the Yankees and Rangers center fielder Lewis Brinson were among the players who showed increased promise from a scouting perspective. Also drawing that review was lefty Josh Hader, who was one of several interesting players who went to the Brewers in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/26/15
Here are the latest minor league signings from around baseball, all reported by Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise credited…
- The Rockies signed right-hander Brian Schlitter, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. The 6’5″ righty saw significant action out of the Cubs bullpen in 2014 but threw only 7 1/3 innings last season while posting a 7.36 ERA. Schlitter has posted some strong minor league numbers over his career and (of particular interest to Colorado) he has a 60.7% grounder rate over the last two years in Chicago.
- The Cubs signed righty Drew Rucinski. Rucinski has a 6.28 ERA over 14 1/3 career IP with the Angels, and was both designated for assignment and then outrighted by the Halos last September. He has a career 3.88 ERA, 2.98 K/BB rate and 8.1 K/9 over 326 2/3 career minor league frames.
- The Indians announced that catcher Adam Moore has been re-signed. Moore has appeared in each of the last seven Major League seasons, though aside from a 60-game stint with the Mariners in 2010, he’s never appeared in more than nine games in any one campaign. This included 2015, when he played one game for Cleveland. The veteran catcher has posted a strong .291/.356/.465 career slash line over 2946 minor league PA.
- The Athletics re-signed catcher Carson Blair. Blair made his MLB debut in 2015, receiving 35 PA over 11 games with the A’s. The catcher posted some solid numbers over eight minor league seasons but struggled in his first taste of Triple-A action this season. Oakland outrighted Blair off its 40-man roster earlier this month.
- The Dodgers re-signed right-hander Matt West. Los Angeles originally purchased West from the Blue Jays in May. He appeared in two games for the Dodgers and spent most of 2015 in the minors, posting a cumulative 3.54 ERA over 53 1/3 innings but was hit hard in a stint at Triple-A Oklahoma City. West was a second-round pick for the Rangers in the 2007 draft.
- The Pirates signed righty reliever Curtis Partch. The 28-year-old owns a 95mph fastball but that heater has only recently translated to big strikeout totals on the minor league level, and he has a 4.74 ERA over 820 IP in the minors. Partch posted a 4.75 ERA, 24 walks and 22 strikeouts over 30 1/3 relief innings with the Reds in 2013-14.
- The Padres signed right-handers Johnny Hellweg and Daniel McCutchen. Once a notable prospect in Milwaukee’s system, Hellweg underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and struggled in 61 minor league innings last year after returning from injury rehab. McCutchen has appeared in one Major League game since 2012 and bounced around with a few teams before catching on with San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate last year.
- The Cardinals signed right-hander Deck McGuire, best known for being picked 11th overall by the Blue Jays in the 2010 draft. McGuire has a 4.57 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 2.26 K/BB over 713 1/3 career minor league IP.
- The Royals re-signed veteran righty Roman Colon and catcher J.C. Boscan. Colon recorded 187 1/3 MLB innings from 2004-12 but hasn’t pitched in an affiliated minor league since 2013. Boscan will be returning for his 20th season of pro ball after spending last season with Triple-A Omaha. He’s received a few Major League cups of coffee over his long career, appearing in 17 games with the Braves and Cubs from 2010-13.
- The Braves signed corner infielder Brandon Snyder. Snyder, picked 13th overall by the Orioles in the 2005 draft, appeared in 83 career MLB games with Baltimore, Texas and Boston from 2010-13. The 29-year-old spent much of last season at the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate.
Coaching Notes: McGwire, Henley, Magadan, Rowand
Let’s catch up on the latest coaching signings as teams finalize their field staffs:
- One-time superstar slugger Mark McGwire is set to join the Padres as the bench coach alongside new manager Andy Green, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently reports. (Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported as a strong possibility.) McGwire has worked as a hitting coach with the Cardinals and Dodgers over the past six years. The 52-year-old’s ascension to a bench coach role suggests that a managerial opportunity might not be far off.
- The Nationals have brought back Bobby Henley as the team’s third base coach, per a club announcement. Henley was set loose along with the rest of the staff (and manager Matt Williams) at the end of a disappointing 2015 campaign, but he’ll join hitting coach Rick Schu in reprising their roles. Most of skipper Dusty Baker’s staff is now set.
- Dave Magadan has been announced as the Diamondbacks‘ new hitting coach. A 16-year MLB veteran, Magadan has previously worked in the Padres, Red Sox, and Rangers organizations, most recently serving as the top batting instructor for Texas.
- Former big leaguer Aaron Rowand will serve as a minor league outfield and baserunning instructor, the White Sox have announced. Rowand, 38, retired after the 2011 season. He’ll return to the place where he started his professional and MLB career.
International Notes: Thames, Lee, Cuba
Korean stars Jae-gyun Hwang and Byung-ho Park may soon be joining countryman Jung-ho Kang in making the KBO to MLB transition. (Hwang will be posted next Monday, while Park is in a negotiating window with the Twins.) But perhaps the most interesting trans-Pacific baseball story is playing out on the Korean peninsula. Former big league outfielder Eric Thames was recently named the 2015 KBO MVP. Thames, who just turned 29, showed some pop and promise in North America, but never quite seized an opportunity and moved to Korea after he failed to receive a big league call-up in his age-26 campaign. All he’s done since is devastate his new league, putting up consecutive seasons with an OPS of over 1.100. Thames is under contract with the NC Dinos for one more campaign, but figures to draw strong interest from Japan’s NPB as well as major league organizations if he can post anything approaching his 2015 numbers, which were ridiculous even for the hitter-friendly KBO: .381/.497/.790 with 47 home runs and 40 stolen bases in 595 plate appearances.
If you’re interested in taking a peek at Thames’ exploits, check out this Naver Sports highlight video. Here are some other notes on the international market:
- Free agent first baseman Dae-ho Lee — a South Korean who has been playing in Japan — will visit the United States in early December to meet with MLB clubs, according to another report from Yoo. The 33-year-old power hitter is drawing interest from “multiple” teams, his Korean agency (Montis) tells Yoo. He’s already shown he ability to excel in both the KBO and NPB and last year was his best in Japan, as he slashed .282/.368/.524 with 31 home runs.
- While the Asian markets have grabbed much of the recent attention, Cuba remains a hotbed for international activity. Baseball America’s Ben Badler has the latest on a variety of intriguing players from the neighboring island. The Reds appear to be in the lead to sign slick defender Alfredo Rodriguez, says Badler, while the Cubs and Dodgers are expected to lead the charge on other bonus-pool-bound players that become eligible to sign out of Cuba.
- Badler also has some updates on a group of other touted players. Outfielder Guillermo Heredia and righty Vladimir Gutierrez are training in Florida and holding private workouts, while pitchers Norge Ruiz and Cionel Perez are set to hold showcases in the coming weeks.
Heyman’s Latest: Madson, Iwakuma, Alvarez, Zobrist, O’s, Perez, Freese
Let’s take a look in at the latest reporting from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who touched upon several notable stories today (all via his Inside Baseball column, except as otherwise noted):
- The Dodgers have had contact with free agent righty Ryan Madson, Heyman says. The veteran, who enjoyed a remarkable turnaround last year, could be one of several options as Los Angeles looks to beef up its pen.
- The Mariners have long said that re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma is a priority, and GM Jerry Dipoto reaffirmed that stance only days ago. Heyman writes that the club is “willing to go to around $24 million or so over two years” for the accomplished veteran. It’s not entirely clear whether there’s any willingness to go beyond that amount, but it seems a bit light for a pitcher of Iwakuma’s ability. (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts a three-year, $45MM deal for the righty.)
- Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez would welcome a trade, writes Heyman. It’s been known for awhile that Alvarez is on the block due to his rising arbitration salary, poor glove and struggles with left-handed pitching. The Pirates almost certainly don’t want to pay Alvarez his projected $8.1MM salary next season and could very well non-tender him next week if they can’t find a taker. Heyman notes that the Orioles make some sense, and I’d add the Athletics as a speculative fit also. He’s probably best off with an AL club where he can DH, but it’s also fun to think of the power numbers Alvarez could log at Coors Field.
- The Cardinals are among the most interested teams in Ben Zobrist and have reached out to his representatives at Octagon, reports Heyman. Zobrist was linked to the Cardinals last week, and Heyman notes that there are as many as 20 teams believed to have interest in the versatile switch-hitter. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cardinals are indeed in the mix, but it remains to be seen whether they can sell Zobrist on a super-utility role (an “uber-role,” as Goold terms it). Zobrist’s preference is reportedly to play second base.
- While the Orioles are prioritizing an effort to bring back Chris Davis, the club has legitimate interest in outfielder Alex Gordon. Meanwhile, Heyman says that he’d be surprised if the club pursues Gerardo Parra as a corner outfield option, since “they weren’t all that impressed by him” over the last several months.
- The Royals may be “willing to at least talk” with the reps of backstop Salvador Perez about “reworking” his early-career extension. That contract has become almost comically team-friendly since it was signed — a reflection of both the significant risk taken on by the team at the time and the extent to which Perez has rewarded that trust. It’s not entirely clear what kind of scenario could be pursued, but all indications are that Kansas City would be bargaining from a position of strength.
- There’s at least “a bit” of contact between the Angels and free agent third baseman David Freese, says Heyman. A reunion continues to appear possible, though the club will likely look to see how some other market possibilities play out before committing to the veteran.
Cubs, Cards, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox Showing Most Interest In Price
The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox are showing the most interest in left-hander David Price, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal adds that while Price enjoyed his time in Toronto, the Blue Jays “are not expected to be a major factor in his free agency,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise considering the team’s previous reluctance to commit the type of expenditure Price will command to any player. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported today that there’s a “high expectation” among executives involved in the Price bidding that the Red Sox will make the highest offer (links to Twitter). Tom Verducci also said in a recent MLB Network appearance that Boston will aggressively pursue Price.
Other clubs will naturally show interest in Price and presumably already have. However, the common belief that Price is capable of approaching or exceeding Max Scherzer‘s seven-year, $210MM contract from last offseason suggests that many teams will be priced out of serious consideration.
Each of the clubs listed by Rosenthal has a need in the rotation, though some to a greater extent than others. The Cardinals recently lost Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery and saw several of their promising young arms slowed by injuries in 2015 (including Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales). The Dodgers could potentially lose Zack Greinke to free agency and don’t know what to expect from either Hyun-jin Ryu or Brandon McCarthy in 2016. The Giants’ rotation was highly unstable in 2015 behind ace Madison Bumgarner, and the Red Sox struggled through 2015 with one of the game’s worst performances from their rotation. The need for the Cubs is less glaring on paper, as Chicago ranked third in rotation ERA in 2015. However, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel wilted down the stretch, and adding another top-tier starter to pair with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation would give Chicago a highly formidable postseason rotation.
Price is coming off a dominant season split between Detroit and Toronto in which he logged a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.4 ground-ball rate in 220 1/3 innings. Because he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to this summer’s trade, Price won’t require a new club to forfeit a draft pick upon signing him.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers’ new-look front office has done a lot of wheeling and dealing already, but there’s more to come as it continues to overhaul the league’s most expensive roster.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Clayton Kershaw, SP: $163MM through 2020 (includes player opt-out after 2018)
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $64MM through 2018
- Carl Crawford, OF: $41.75MM through 2017
- Andre Ethier, OF: $38MM through 2017 (includes buyout of 2018 club option)
- Brandon McCarthy, SP: $31MM through 2018
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP: $21MM through 2018
- Yasiel Puig, OF: $19.5MM through 2018 (can opt into arbitration when eligible; on track for 2017 eligibility)
- Brett Anderson, SP: $15.8MM through 2016 (accepted qualifying offer)
- Erisbel Arruebarrena, SS: $13MM through 2018
- Alex Guerrero, IF/OF: $10MM through 2017
- J.P. Howell, RP: $6.25MM through 2016 (exercised player option)
- Jose Tabata, OF: $4.75MM through 2016
Other Obligations
- Matt Kemp, OF: $14MM through 2019 (salary obligations remaining with Dodgers as part of trade with Padres)
- Michael Morse, OF: unreported portion of $8MM salary for 2016 (likely sufficient to make up all or most of difference between it and Tabata’s salary; agreed to as part of trade with Pirates)
Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM
- Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM
- Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM
- Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM
- Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM
- Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM
- Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K
- Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM
- Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K
Free Agents
Brandon Beachy, Zack Greinke (exercised opt-out provision, rejected qualifying offer), Chris Heisey, Jim Johnson, Howie Kendrick (rejected qualifying offer), Jimmy Rollins, Justin Ruggiano, Chase Utley
Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi and co. have not been shy at all about taking advantage of the Dodgers’ deep pockets since taking the helm in Los Angeles. But the group has been more freewheeling than free spending in the traditional sense. For example: the club signed Hector Olivera last March, then flipped him (and ate the $28MM signing bonus) in July — before he ever appeared with the major league club — in a trade that brought in Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, Luis Avilan, and rental pieces. In the process, L.A. ate not only Olivera’s signing bonus, but also the tens of millions of dollars owed to Mat Latos, Michael Morse, and Bronson Arroyo.
That wasn’t even the only multi-player deal consummated with Atlanta. In their first year of office, we’ve also seen this front office team ship out a former superstar (and pay down part of the contract), sell a controllable All-Star and flip the key piece of the return for a one-year veteran, acquire the Phillies’ long-time double-play combo (here and here), roll the dice on risky free agent pitching, effectively purchase a draft pick, put late-season trust in an unproven prospect, and spend big internationally (on more than one occasion).
The organization also parted ways with skipper Don Mattingly, who was criticized at times for tactical decisions even as he drew strong reviews for handling a clubhouse full of personalities and payroll. In Mattingly’s place, the Dodgers have tabbed Dave Roberts as the new manager. That move could open the top brass up to criticism, as it’s his first time running a dugout. But, that sort of risk hasn’t seemed to hold sway in Los Angeles (and the Dodgers are hardly the only team to recently hire an inexperienced manager). Roberts will be tasked with leading an expensive, talented, and carefully constructed roster to an NL West crown and beyond.
With such a wide-ranging track record, it’s largely a fool’s errand to predict what the Dodgers’ brain trust will do this winter. But it’s clear what their biggest decision is, at least at this point: whether or not to re-sign Zack Greinke. The right-hander’s opt-out clause was perfectly timed to coincide with a 222 2/3-inning, 1.66 ERA masterpiece of a season. It doesn’t hurt that he held opposing teams to less than three earned per nine in his prior two seasons in L.A. The net result is that he’s going to be extremely expensive, in average annual value if not also years, as a free agent. With potential competition from the rival Giants, the stakes are high. Of course, we’ve also seen the Dodgers connected to varying degrees with top free agents (e.g. David Price, Jordan Zimmermann), and potential trade targets such as Shelby Miller, so it’s prudent at this point to consider all options open.
Whether or not the team brings Greinke back into the fold, moreover, the rotation figures to be an area of focus. That’s true despite the fact that Brett Anderson chose to return on a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer. Clayton Kershaw — the best pitcher in baseball — is firmly ensconced atop the rotation, and Alex Wood joins Anderson as a nice mid-rotation arm. But there’s a lot of uncertainty elsewhere, as Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy will each be working back from serious injuries (the former, hopefully, before the latter).
The team isn’t without options behind that group. Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, Zach Lee, and Joe Wieland all have had a taste of the bigs. Jharel Cotton and Chris Anderson could soon be nearing MLB readiness as well. (That’s before considering the team’s two highest-upside young arms — Julio Urias and Jose De Leon — who could theoretically be ready as soon as 2016, but shouldn’t be pushed forward out of necessity.) But for a contending team that has seen its depth tested in recent years, there’s a good argument to be made for adding a veteran, even if Greinke or another top arm signs on.
While the rotation has some questions, the pen is the area that drew the most fan ire last year. But that’s not to say the relief corps has any obvious holes heading into 2016. Kenley Jansen remains a high-leverage stud. The team has right-handed middle-relief and/or set-up options including Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, and Juan Nicasio — every one of whom struck out 10 or more batters per nine and carried a sub-4.00 ERA last year. And the Dodgers return southpaws Luis Avilan and J.P. Howell, with the former coming over in the aforementioned Olivera/Wood swap and the latter exercising his player option.
That looks to be a pretty strong group, and many of the younger rotation options noted above could slide into the pen if a need arose. But there’s still a reasonable argument to be made that the club ought to be proactive. For one thing, there’s only one elite arm in the pen as things stand. For another, that particular elite arm — Jansen — will reach the open market after the season. Whether or not the club will feel at all compelled to line up a replacement for him now, it makes sense that it is at least exploring the relief market for opportunities. We’ve heard talk that players such as Darren O’Day (via free agency) or even Aroldis Chapman (in a trade) might be real considerations.
The position player side of things is less interesting in some ways and more interesting in others. The infield is in good shape: Corey Seager appears set to take over at shortstop after his impressive debut, Adrian Gonzalez is locked in at first, and the Yasmani Grandal/A.J. Ellis pairing behind the dish figures to be maintained.
Los Angeles still has an array of options at second and third, with Justin Turner, Enrique Hernandez, Jose Peraza, and Alex Guerrero all on hand. (The last name on that list, Guerrero, could also end up as trade bait. And Turner is coming off of surgery, though we’ve not heard any indication that he’ll be limited.) Of course, all of those players hit from the right side, so it would be nice to add a lefty-swinging option. The team has been said to have interest in a reunion with Chase Utley, who could fill such a role. While that mix does not scream out for an upgrade, one of those positions could also theoretically be filled from the outside if a great opportunity arose.
Things start to get fun, though, when you turn to the outfield. Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are both expensive, left-handed hitters who should probably be part-time players at this point. Joc Pederson showed both his rather steep upside and the reasons for doubt as he followed up on a huge first half with miserable play down the stretch. Yasiel Puig had his worst season as a big leaguer and continued to generate controversy, though he still carries one of the highest ceilings in all of baseball. Scott Van Slyke took a step back last year but still offers a supplementary right-handed bat. Guerrero (in the corner) as well as Hernandez and even Peraza (up the middle) could also contribute on the grass.
It’s not outlandish to imagine that group remaining intact. Those players represent a fairly intriguing blend of upside and depth, after all, as well as ample lineup construction possibilities. It didn’t prove unworkable to allocate playing time last year with such a wide variety of options. And, after all, there’s always injury and underperformance to account for.
That being said, there are several scenarios where this outfield mix could be shaken up — perhaps significantly. The free agent market is full of quality outfielders, some of whom could be alluring enough to force other transactions to clear space — though we haven’t heard much to suggest that. Even without a major addition, change could make sense. Ethier and Crawford are somewhat redundant, and any cost savings could be re-allocated if a willing trade partner is found. The former, of course, has been much more productive of late and carries more trade value. (Indeed, the remainder of his deal looks manageable, if a bit expensive.) Pederson seems unlikely to be moved, but he’d represent a big chip if the team wants to make a deal without giving up its young pitching prospects.
And then there’s Puig, who draws as many whispers as any player in baseball. There’s still no reason to believe that he’ll be shopped, per se, but if L.A. is really open to trading him the possibilities are more or less endless. Given his talent, established ceiling, and cost/control, it’s hard to imagine any team in baseball that wouldn’t be intrigued. It’d be hard to sell him now after a down season, as the return surely wouldn’t be what it might’ve been last winter, but Puig still represents a (hypothetical) centerpiece to a major deal — possibly one that would return a high-end, controllable starter.
One thing that’s clear is that there are relatively few limitations on what the Dodgers can do. Even if the goal is to pare back the payroll, the organization has not only immense spending capacity but also high-end, controllable talent (at the majors and in the minors) from which to deal. That creates an opportunity and sets an expectation for the creative front office.