Trevor Bauer’s Suspension Reduced To 194 Games; Bauer Reinstated, Effective Immediately
Major League Baseball announced Thursday night that the 324-game suspension imposed on Trevor Bauer has been reduced to 194 games on appeal. He has already served the entirety of that ban. He’ll be reinstated, effective immediately.
“Today, the neutral arbitrator selected by MLB and the MLBPA affirmed that Trevor Bauer violated Major League Baseball’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy,” the league said in a statement. “After an exhaustive review of the available evidence the neutral arbitrator upheld an unpaid suspension of 194 games. As part of the decision, the arbitrator reinstated Mr. Bauer effectively immediately, with a loss of pay covering the 144 games he was suspended during the 2022 season. In addition, the arbitrator docked Bauer’s salary for the first 50 games of the 2023 season (i.e., the period covering March 30, 2023 to May 23, 2023). While we believe a longer suspension was warranted, MLB will abide by the neutral arbitrator’s decision, which upholds baseball’s longest-ever active player suspension for sexual assault or domestic violence.
We understand this process was difficult for the witnesses involved and we thank them for their participation. Due to the collectively bargained confidentiality provisions of the joint program, we are unable to provide further details at this time.”
A California woman filed a civil action accusing Bauer of assaulting her during sex, and Major League Baseball placed him on administrative leave when those allegations became public in July 2021. He spent the remainder of that season on paid administrative leave by mutual agreement of MLB and the Players Association while the league conducted an investigation. Two Ohio women later came forth with allegations that Bauer had assaulted them in prior years.
The California woman filed for a long-term restraining order against Bauer. A judge denied that request in August 2021, finding he did not pose an ongoing threat to her safety. Bauer never faced criminal charges, with the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office declining to proceed with a criminal action after their investigation. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” the DA’s office said at the time.
Even in the absence of criminal charges, MLB is permitted to impose discipline if its investigation finds a player violated the joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. The league did so in April, imposing a 324-game ban that went into effect from the date of the suspension. That would have kept Bauer out for the entire 2022-23 seasons (and a few weeks in 2024); Bauer immediately appealed, becoming the first player to appeal a domestic violence suspension.
The appellate process has played out over the past eight months. As per the terms of the policy, the panel consisted of three individuals — one of whom was selected by the league, one selected by the Players Association, and one independent arbitrator approved by both parties.
As the league statement indicates, the panel found that Bauer did violate the Domestic Violence policy. His missed time from the second half of 2021 and the entire ’22 campaign was upheld. Bauer was not paid during the 2022 season after the suspension was announced, and he will forfeit his salary for that season. He will also lose the salary for the first 50 games of next season, as that represents retroactive payment for salary he collected while not playing during his time on administrative leave from July 2021 to April 2022.
However, the panel also determined MLB’s suspension to be excessive and knocked off 130 games from the ban. Based on the number of games he’s already missed, he’ll be eligible to return to the field at the opening of next season.
Bauer has been on the restricted list and hasn’t counted against the Dodgers 40-man roster since first landing on administrative leave. Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets the team will have until January 6 to either reinstate him to the roster or release him. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Dodgers are expected to release Bauer, though the team has yet to comment on the matter.
Even if the Dodgers cut Bauer loose, it’s a meaningful development for the organization from a financial perspective. Los Angeles will owe him his 2023 salary whether they keep him on the roster or not. They won’t have to pay him for the first 50 games of the season, but they’ll remain on the hook for the rest of his $32MM salary. He’ll still be owed approximately $22.12MM after accounting for his docked pay. Perhaps more meaningfully, that money now goes back onto the Dodgers’ luxury tax ledger for the 2023 campaign. As calculated by Roster Resource, Los Angeles’ CBT number jumps to approximately $232MM. That’s just $1MM below next year’s $233MM base tax threshold.
Reporting in recent weeks had suggested the Dodgers were reluctant to spend aggressively this winter, in part due to a desire to maintain flexibility under the CBT threshold in case Bauer’s suspension were reduced. With that coming into play, they’ll have virtually no financial breathing room without shedding salary unless they’re willing to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season.
Dodgers, Padres Among Teams Pursuing Seth Lugo
Former Mets righty Seth Lugo has drawn interest from a wide range of clubs this winter, hoping to land an opportunity as a starting pitcher wherever he signs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Dodgers and Padres are the likeliest landing spots at this point, though the Nationals have been involved to a lesser degree. Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, meanwhile, reported over the weekend that the Dodgers are in the mix for Lugo and would indeed likely build him up as a starter.
Between Los Angeles and San Diego, the latter has a clearer path to rotation innings, if the Padres indeed have interest in giving Lugo a look as a starting pitcher. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Nick Martinez are expected to occupy the top four spots in the rotation, but the No. 5 spot is generally unsettled. Former top prospect Adrian Morejon seems the likeliest option, but Ryan Weathers, Pedro Avila and Jay Groome are all on the 40-man roster as well.
Over in Los Angeles, it’s a slightly more crowded situation. Clayton Kershaw re-signed on a one-year deal, rejoining Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in a projected rotation that was largely rounded out by the Dodgers’ recent signing of Noah Syndergaard. That said, both May and Gonsolin missed substantial time due to injury in 2022. May missed the first three-plus months recovering from 2020 Tommy John surgery, while Gonsolin was slowed late in the year by forearm troubles. He still made 24 starts and tallied 130 1/3 innings, but May logged just 30 regular-season frames and will probably have his workload monitored. Prospects like Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller and Michael Grove could provide depth even without an additional veteran signing, though.
As for the Nats, while Heyman suggests they’re no longer prominent players for Lugo, he’d be a similar signing to their recent addition of Trevor Williams. Beyond the fact that both Williams and Lugo pitched for the Mets this past season, both have been used as relievers recently but carry a starter’s repertoire, making them intriguing buy-low options in that regard. That said, the Nats now have Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Williams and youngsters MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli all as rotation options.
Lugo, 33, has been shuttled between the Mets’ rotation and bullpen multiple times in his career but has been primarily a reliever in 2021-22. He’s notched a solid 3.56 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate in that time, averaging 94.4 mph with his fastball and generally sitting at or near the top of the league in terms of spin rate on his curveball. More broadly, Lugo has long been a quality member of the relief corps in Queens; he’s totaled exactly 300 innings out of the bullpen and boasts a 2.91 ERA in that time.
That said, Lugo has a four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slider and seldom-used changeup — a deep arsenal for a relief pitcher that could lend itself to a return to the rotation. He was hit hard working out of the rotation in the shortened 2020 season, but Lugo has a 4.35 ERA in 194 career innings as a starter. He’s missed more bats out of the bullpen, as one might expect, but his walk rate as a starter is slightly better than as a reliever and Lugo’s opponents haven’t seen dramatic spikes in production when facing him for a second or even third time in a game.
In addition to the Dodgers, Padres and Nats, Lugo has also reportedly drawn at least some degree of interest from the Angels, Red Sox and Tigers.
Dodgers Sign Bradley Zimmer To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers are set to sign outfielder Bradley Zimmer to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports (via Twitter). The Blue Jays non-tendered Zimmer in November rather than pay him a projected $1.3MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility.
Zimmer was a member of three different organizations in 2022, as he was traded from the Guardians to the Jays in April, and then claimed off waivers by the Phillies in August. Toronto claimed Zimmer back just over a week later, and Zimmer finished the season in a Blue Jays uniform. Over 117 total plate appearances with Toronto and Philadelphia, Zimmer hit only .124/.207/.229.
This lack of production outweighed the theoretical benefit that Zimmer’s left-handed bat brought to the Blue Jays’ extremely right-handed lineup, and he likely wouldn’t have received nearly as many at-bats had it not been for some injuries to Toronto’s starting outfielders. However, Zimmer added value off the bench as a pinch-runner, and he continued to deliver quality defense. Over 1783 1/3 career MLB innings as a center fielder, Zimmer has positive grades in Outs Above Average (+10), Defensive Runs Saved (+13), and UZR/150 (+3.6).
Once a top-100 prospect in his days in Cleveland’s farm system, Zimmer hasn’t been able to hit at the big league level, and now might be settling into a role as a depth outfielder at age 30. His glove and speed will continue to get get him looks for teams in need of outfield depth, and some extra help on the grass could help a Dodgers team that has parted ways with Cody Bellinger. Trayce Thompson projects as the new regular center fielder, but with Thompson’s own inconsistent track record before coming to Los Angeles, it makes sense that the Dodgers want some extra help in the minors. It’s possible Zimmer could essentially fill the depth role Kevin Pillar was slated for in 2022, before Pillar underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.
Dodgers Sign J.D. Martinez
The Dodgers have agreed to a one-year contract with J.D. Martinez, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link), pending a physical. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Martinez will receive $10MM. Martinez is represented by the Boras Corporation.
There hasn’t been much public buzz about Martinez’s trip through free agency, as just earlier today, another Heyman report about the Red Sox possibly having interest in re-signing the veteran slugger marked the first team linked to Martinez since he hit the open market. While Martinez didn’t have many known suitors, the Dodgers were operating quietly, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that L.A. “targeted Martinez early in free agency.” According to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, the Dodgers also had interest in Martinez prior to last summer’s trade deadline.
Martinez will now end up in Los Angeles after all, and be reunited with a few familiar faces. Former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts is now a fixture at Dodger Stadium, of course, and Martinez has a long history with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc. It was Martinez’s work with Van Scoyoc in the 2013-14 offseason that helped get his career on track, and turned Martinez into one of baseball’s better hitters of the last decade.
Since those first fateful sessions with Van Scoyoc and Craig Wallenbrock, Martinez has hit .295/.362/.547 with 258 homers over 4916 plate appearances with the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox. That production led to five All-Star appearances, three Silver Slugger Awards, a key role on Boston’s 2018 World Series championship team, and one big free agent payday in the form of Martinez’s five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox in the 2017-18 offseason.
The 2020 season was something of an outlier for Martinez, as he struggled badly in the shortened season and was open with how the COVID-19 dugout protocols interrupted his usual routine. With that year perhaps simply a writeoff due to unusual circumstances, 2022 marked the first sign of decline in Martinez’s production, even if his 119 wRC+ over 596 PA was still solidly above the league average. Martinez still hit .274/.341/.448, but his homer total (16), Isolated Power figure (.174) and slugging percentage were all his lowest in a regulation-sized season since 2013. In addition, Martinez’s hard-hit percentage dropped off sharply from his career norms, even if his 41.7% total was still in the 60th percentile of all batters.
On paper, a move from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium isn’t ideal for a player looking to regain his power stroke. However, the change of scenery and a reunion with Van Scoyoc makes Martinez into a very interesting bounce-back candidate for 2023. Even if he “only” has another season in the neighborhood of 119 wRC+, the Dodgers will happily take that kind of offensive upgrade within a lineup that has already lost Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger to free agency.
2022 marked the first season that Martinez played exclusively as a designated hitter, and that will surely be his primary role in Los Angeles even if he does pick up the glove for an occasional appearance as a corner outfielder. Martinez doesn’t bring the defensive versatility that the Dodgers usually prefer, but the club has enough other versatile players that the overall roster flexibility won’t be much hurt by Martinez getting the bulk of DH at-bats. Max Muncy will now mostly toggle between second and third base, with Chris Taylor also capable of playing either position and prospect Miguel Vargas in line for more playing time at third base. Gavin Lux, meanwhile, is slated to move from second base to replace Turner as the everyday shortstop.
The addition of Martinez creates an obvious question about whether or not free agent Justin Turner has played his last game in Dodger blue. Heyman tweets that the Dodgers still have interest in Turner, who has also drawn interest from such teams as the Marlins and Diamondbacks this winter. If Turner was re-signed, L.A. could slot Turner in at third base, moving Muncy to second base and keeping Taylor primarily as an outfielder. Vargas would be the odd man out in this scenario, though the Dodgers may prefer to either bring him along slowly, or rely on more experienced players as the club chases another World Series ring.
Of course, there has also been a sense that the Dodgers are willing to lean more heavily than usual on Vargas and other up-and-comers in 2023, given how the team might be looking to duck under the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Martinez’s $10MM salary bumps the Dodgers’ tax number to roughly $210.3MM, as per Roster Resource. It still leaves L.A. with more room to spend, but Trevor Bauer‘s appeal of his two-year suspension looms large, as an arbiter is expected to rule on the appeal at some point before the end of January. If the Dodgers have to end up paying some or all of the two years’ worth of salary wiped out by Bauer’s suspension, it could put them near or over the CBT line yet again.
To this end, Martinez’s contract is relatively inexpensive enough that it isn’t necessarily a hint in either direction about how the Dodgers might feel the arbiter will rule. With that appeal still an X-factor for the remainder of the Dodgers’ winter business, they might’ve felt the investment in Martinez was still worth making, given his appeal and comeback potential.
The one-year length is also somewhat notable, as MLBTR projected Martinez for a two-year, $30MM pact. It could be that Martinez accepted the shorter deal in order to play for a contender and to reunite with Betts and Van Scoyoc, or he and agent Scott Boras could view this as something of a pillow contract. If and when Martinez does rebound from his 2022 season, it would put Martinez in line for a larger multi-year pact next winter, even as he’s entering his age-36 season. The Dodgers have yet to ink a player to a multi-year deal this winter, as Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, Shelby Miller, and the re-signed Clayton Kershaw are only signed through the 2023 campaign.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/17/22
There’s been a few minor league deals coming through of late, so here’s a quick recap.
- The Dodgers have brought in catcher Patrick Mazeika on a minor league deal, per his MLB transactions log. Mazeika made big league appearances for the Mets over the past two seasons, slashing a combined .190/.236/.279 with a pair of home runs across 159 plate appearances. He was claimed off waivers by the Giants in August, before being released at the end of the season. Across 188 plate appearances between the Mets’ and Giants’ Triple-A affiliates, Mazeika slashed .253/.356/.352 with four home runs. The Dodgers have Will Smith and Austin Barnes tabbed to handle the catching duties this year, so Mazeika will provide some depth in the upper minors.
- Oakland has added right-hander Garrett Williams on a minor league pact, per his MLB transaction log. Williams was originally drafted by the Giants in the seventh round of the 2016 draft, but made his way over to the Cardinals prior to the 2021 season. He showed some promise early on his minor league career, but has struggled in the upper minors. He owns a 4.46 ERA in 240 1/3 Double-A innings, and a 6.75 ERA in 80 Triple-A innings. He has flashed decent strikeout staff, boasting a 10.5 SO/9 in Triple-A, but control has been a huge problem, averaging a 7.9 BB/9 at the highest level of the minor leagues.
- Colorado has signed shortstop Connor Kaiser to a minor league contract, per his MLB transaction log. The Pirates took Kaiser in the third round of the 2018 draft, and he briefly made it up to Triple-A with the Bucs before being released in May of this year. He latched on with the Padres, spending the rest of the year at Double-A and hitting .202/.299/.360 with seven home runs in 207 plate appearances.
- The Nationals have added shortstop Nick Shumpert on a minor league deal, per his MLB transaction log. Shumpert was drafted out of high school in the seventh round by the Tigers in 2015, but he turned that down to go to college. He struggled at college, and wound up being taken in the 28th round a year later by the Braves. After three years in the minor leagues with Atlanta, Shumpert was released and turned to independent ball. The 26-year-old has spent the last four years there, and most recently slashed .265/.310/.421 with eight home runs in 375 plate appearances for the Cleburne Railroaders.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays’ Catchers, Yoshida, Red Sox
All off-season it’s seemed a matter of when not if the Blue Jays trade one of their three catchers – Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Gabriel Moreno. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Blue Jays were open to trading Jansen to bring in a starting pitcher, but after landing Chris Bassitt on a three-year, $63MM deal Feinsand reports that a trade is no certainty now.
In any event, Toronto is in a strong negotiating position as there’s a few paths they could go down. The clear top two free agent options – Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez – are off the board, while the Braves have acquired Sean Murphy, making the Blue Jays the clear and obvious fit for any catcher-hungry teams. They could also opt to carry three catchers on the active roster, cycling players through the DH spot, or option Moreno back to Triple-A and go with a Kirk-Jansen tandem to begin the year at least.
The additions of Bassitt to the rotation and Kevin Kiermaier to the outfield decrease the clear needs for the Blue Jays to address this winter, but in a competitive AL East, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them ultimately opt to pursue further upgrades, whether via trade or free agency. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, the Jays were finalists for Masataka Yoshida (the Dodgers were the other finalist) before he signed for the Red Sox. It’s not clear whether the Kiermaier signing arose because they missed out on Yoshida, or whether they tried to sign both, but given the former’s injury history and declining production it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them seek another outfielder.
Boston’s signing of Yoshida addressed the need to upgrade their offense following the departure of Xander Bogaerts to San Diego. It also likely spelled the end of any chance of Eric Hosmer, who was DFA’d yesterday, receiving regular at bats. The Red Sox look to have locked in youngster Triston Casas as their everyday first-baseman moving forward, while Yoshida (and others) could well take a few DH at bats as the Red Sox cycle through their outfielders. Boston’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom addressed the DFA of Hosmer to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.
“Our roster isn’t complete yet, but as we build our club, we feel it’s important to give Triston a clear lane, and that carrying two left-handed hitting first basemen would leave us short in other areas. Given that, it’s important to do right by Eric and give him time to find his next opportunity. We knew when we first got him that this day would come at some point, and wanted to make sure we treated him right.”
Cotillo also reports that the Red Sox tried hard to trade Hosmer prior to DFA’ing him, but found minimal interest in the league. Hosmer did receive a full no-trade clause as part of the trade that sent him from San Diego to Boston at the deadline, but Cotillo’s report said that the lack of trade interest meant the no-trade clause didn’t even come into play. The Red Sox can still trade him while he’s on waivers, but it seems likely he’d be released onto the open market.
While an outgoing trade of Hosmer seems unlikely, the team is working on incomings, and recently asked the Marlins about Miguel Rojas, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rojas was one of the top defensive shortstops in the sport last season, and as Rosenthal notes, the Marlins value that defense and rebuffed Boston’s inquiry. Rojas is under contract for one more year at an affordable $5MM salary.
Royals Open To Trade Offers On Michael A. Taylor
The Royals are open to the possibility of dealing center fielder Michael A. Taylor, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. They’ve also made corner infielder/outfielder Hunter Dozier available, Rosenthal writes, although Taylor’s the more appealing of that duo.
Taylor, who turns 32 shortly before Opening Day, is coming off one of the better seasons of his career. He hit .254/.313/.357 with nine home runs over 456 plate appearances in 2022. That offensive output is below-average but it was his best work at the plate since his 19-homer showing with the Nationals back in 2017.
The right-handed hitter has a .241/.296/.381 line in a little under 2800 plate appearances over parts of nine seasons. Strikeouts have been a consistent concern for much of that time, as he routinely fanned in over 30% of his trips to the plate during his time in Washington. Taylor has trimmed that swing-and-miss a bit in recent years, though, including a career-low 23.9% strikeout percentage this past season. That’s still a few points higher than average but hardly disastrous, and his .313 on-base percentage was also his best since that 2017 campaign.
Of course, Taylor’s greater appeal lies in his defensive acumen. He’s an excellent center fielder, one who routinely posts elite marks for his glove. Taylor has rated as 60 runs above average in just shy of 5500 career innings in center, by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast has pegged him at 37 runs above par since the start of the 2016 season. Even as he’s gotten into his 30’s, the former sixth-round pick has shown no signs of tailing off. DRS pegged him as the league’s most valuable defensive center fielder this year, rating him 19 runs above average. Statcast wasn’t quite so bullish, “only” crediting him at +5 runs.
Regardless of the precise value of Taylor’s defense, there’s little question he’s a plus on that side of the ball. He’s also quite affordable, due a modest $4.5MM guarantee in the second season of a two-year contract extension. He’ll hit free agency at the end of next year, but he’d be a fine stopgap and/or a quality fourth outfielder on a contender.
That’s especially true given how shallow the center field market is. Free agency is essentially devoid of regulars at this point, highlighted by players like Jackie Bradley Jr., Rafael Ortega and Bradley Zimmer. There aren’t many obvious trade candidates either. Bryan Reynolds is the most commonly speculated target after his trade request, but the Pirates have maintained an extremely high asking price. That’s also true of the Diamondbacks, who are seeking MLB-ready help in any deal that sees them ship off Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Players like Max Kepler and Ramón Laureano could change uniforms, although they’re each better suited for right field. Cedric Mullins, Trent Grisham and Dylan Carlson all seem longshots, at best, to move.
A number of teams could check in with Kansas City about Taylor, who’d come at a much lower asking price than any of the younger options with extended windows of remaining control. Rosenthal writes the Dodgers are scouring the trade market for center field help, although it’s unclear if they have any interest in Taylor specifically. Other speculative candidates for a center field addition include the Giants, Marlins, Red Sox and Rockies.
While Taylor should generate a few calls, Kansas City figures to have a harder time finding a taker for Dozier. The 31-year-old doesn’t have much defensive value. He’s limited to the corners and has rated very poorly at third base and in the outfield, with first base and designated hitter the better fits. Dozier hasn’t hit at commensurate levels for those positions over the past two seasons, though, carrying a combined .226/.289/.391 line in 1043 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have each pegged his production below replacement level in both seasons.
The Royals inked Dozier to a contract extension headed into the 2021 season, guaranteeing him $25MM over four years. That’s one the organization likely wishes they could have back, as Dozier has never taken the expected step forward after hitting .279/.348/.522 with 26 homers in 2019. The former eighth overall pick is still due $17.25MM over the next two seasons (including a buyout on a 2025 club option), and the Royals would have to eat the majority of that tab or take back an undesirable deal in return to find a taker.
If Dozier does stick in Kansas City, Rosenthal suggests the Royals would likely move him back to third base. Vinnie Pasquantino has seized either the first base or designated hitter job, while former top prospect Nick Pratto should get another chance at the other spot. MJ Melendez looks like the favorite for left field playing time, while the club has a number of outfielders (Drew Waters, Edward Olivares and Kyle Isbel) who could jockey for reps in right field.
Moving Dozier back to the hot corner would cut into the playing time of both Nate Eaton, who finished the season fairly well as a 25-year-old rookie, and former top prospect Adalberto Mondesi. Mondesi and the Royals agreed to a $3.045MM salary for next year, buying out his final season of arbitration eligibility. He’s coming off another season mostly lost to injury, this time an April ACL tear in his left knee. Rosenthal suggests K.C. could explore trades involving Mondesi as well.
Mondesi, 27, has shown an enviable combination of power potential and athleticism at times. He’s stolen 133 bases and connected on 38 home runs in 358 MLB games, flashing the elite physical tools that made him such a tantalizing young talent. Yet he’s also shown an extremely aggressive offensive approach that has impacted his consistency, and he’s just a .244/.280/.408 career hitter. Mondesi has yet to reach 500 plate appearances in a season, with oblique, hamstring, shoulder, back and groin issues all impacting him even before this year’s ACL injury. He’s a difficult player to rely upon with that kind of track record, but he’s shown flashes of impact talent intermittently as a big leaguer.
Latest On Dansby Swanson’s Market
Dansby Swanson is the best remaining free agent, the only of the top four shortstops who has yet to agree to terms. Teams like the Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox and incumbent Braves have all been tied to him, although there’s no indication he’s especially close to a deal.
Minnesota, Boston and the Dodgers each lost a star shortstop of their own to free agency, making them all natural fits to look to Swanson as a possible replacement. However, various reports have cast some doubt on each of those possible landing spots. Both Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jon Heyman of the New York Post have written recently that Los Angeles is presently more on the periphery of the Swanson market. Rosenthal and Heyman each suggest L.A. might only jump into the mix if Swanson’s asking price dips into a range they find especially palatable.
That at least partially stems from luxury tax considerations, with various reports suggesting the Dodgers are eyeing the possibility of dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. The Dodgers have paid the tax in each of the last two seasons, setting them up for heightened penalties as repeat payors. A team can reset their payor status by dipping below the threshold for one year, and doing so next season may free L.A. up to aggressively target free agency during the 2023-24 offseason. Los Angeles is presently projected around $32MM shy of the tax marker by Roster Resource, leaving room to add Swanson without going past the threshold. However, there’s apparently some organizational concern they could find themselves on the hook for money owed to Trevor Bauer if the pitcher’s two-year suspension is overturned or reduced on appeal, which is expected to be heard in the next month.
Heyman wrote yesterday the Red Sox are “seriously considering” Swanson after watching Xander Bogaerts head to San Diego. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom recently told the media the club was looking to add players at up-the-middle positions, but the presence of Trevor Story means they’re not locked into a shortstop pursuit. Boston reportedly offered Bogaerts, whom they’d called their top offseason priority, $162MM over six years before he landed in San Diego. Pivoting with a similar or higher proposal to Swanson would raise some eyebrows, and Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic wrote yesterday it seems unlikely Boston would make such an investment.
The Twins had been in contact with Swanson even before Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Giants, putting themselves into the mix for a fallback option. Both Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link) and Dan Hayes of the Athletic (on Twitter) suggest the Twins remain involved, but both reporters characterize it as more of a longshot for Swanson to actually land in Minneapolis. The Twins do still have a fair bit of payroll flexibility, even after this afternoon’s $11MM agreement with Joey Gallo.
Regardless, Swanson’s sure to find a significant deal from some team this winter. The next-best remaining free agent shortstop is Elvis Andrus, while the trade market doesn’t have many obvious solutions. Swanson is coming off an All-Star campaign, one in which he connected on 25 home runs with a .277/.329/.447 line while appearing in all 162 games for the Braves. He also secured his first career Gold Glove after rating as 15 runs above average defensively, per Statcast. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract.
Dodgers To Sign Noah Syndergaard To One-Year Deal
December 16: The Dodgers have made it official, announcing the signing. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic provides details on the incentives. Syndergaard will earn a $500K bonus for reaching 130, 150 and 170 innings pitched.
December 14: The Dodgers and right-hander Noah Syndergaard are in agreement on a one-year contract that will see him make $13MM with $1.5MM in incentives available. He’ll reportedly unlock a $500K bonus for reaching each of 130, 150 and 170 innings. Syndergaard is represented by CAA Sports.
Syndergaard, 30, was once one of the best pitchers in the majors. In 2016, he tossed 183 2/3 innings with a 2.60 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate. He was worth 6.0 wins above replacement that year in the estimation of FanGraphs, third in the majors among pitchers with only Clayton Kershaw and José Fernández ahead of him. That was the highlight of a stretch from 2015 to 2019 in which he tossed 716 innings with a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to be himself over the past few years, as he required Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. That prevented him from pitching at all in that season and he also hit a few setbacks in 2021, ultimately limited to tossing just two innings late in the year. Despite that lengthy layoff, the Mets extended a qualifying offer to him after that season, which he rejected in order to sign with the Angels on a one-year, $21MM deal.
2022 was good but not great for Syndergaard. He stayed healthy enough to make 24 starts and one relief appearance, logging 134 2/3 innings. That included a midseason trade to the Phillies, whose World Series run allowed him to toss another 8 1/3 innings in the postseason. His 3.94 ERA was not spectacular, though it was solid enough. However, his fastball averaged “just” 94.5 mph after averaging 98.2 mph from 2015 to 2018. He struck out just 16.8% of batters he faced, a huge drop-off from his earlier marks. He still showed excellent control, walking just 5.5% of batters faced, and posted a 42.8% ground ball rate that was right around league average. But the overpowering “Thor” from the previous decade didn’t seem present.
MLBTR predicted that Syndergaard would be able to secure a three-year, $36MM contract, an average annual value of $12MM. Instead, he has opted for a one-year “prove it” deal for a second consecutive season. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Syndergaard had larger multi-year offers for more money from other teams but preferred to spend one year with the Dodgers and return to the open market again next winter.
The Dodgers have definitely preferred short-term deals and they have another one here. Last year, they signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year pacts worth $8MM and $8.5MM, respectively. They each went on to have very successful seasons, in different ways, that led to larger guarantees once they returned to the open market. Anderson got $39MM over three years from the Angels while Heaney got $25MM over two years from the Rangers, plus incentives and the ability to opt-out after the first season of the deal. Syndergaard has settled for a significantly lower salary than he got from the Angels a year ago, when he hardly pitched in the previous two seasons, but it seems he and the Dodgers are hoping this is a gamble that will pay off one year from now. Broadly speaking, the track record for pitchers in the second year after Tommy John surgery is stronger than in the first, which could help both parties win this bet.
For the Dodgers, this bolsters a rotation that was already strong but had its share of uncertainty. Syndergaard will slot in next to Julio Urías, Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. Those four are also very good pitchers, but the group comes with injury concerns. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Adding Syndergaard gives them an extra arm to get through the season and will reduce the need to rely on depth options like Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove and Andre Jackson. It’s possible that Walker Buehler could contribute later in the year, but it’s not a guarantee after he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.
Financially, this deal brings the Dodgers’ payroll up to $185MM, per Roster Resource. That’s still well shy of the Opening Day figure they had in 2022, which was $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s been reported that the Dodgers are hoping to reset their luxury tax status this year. The competitive balance tax features escalating penalties for teams that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers paid in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023, but they could go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor by limboing under the line in the coming season. Roster Resource pegs their current CBT figure at $201MM. That’s more than $30MM under the lowest tax threshold of $233MM, though there’s a chance Trevor Bauer‘s suspension could be overturned, putting his contract back on the books and leaving the club’s CBT figure right around that threshold. A decision on that matter is expected in the next month.
In terms of the market for starting pitchers, Syndergaard is the latest of many dominoes to fall in the past couple of weeks. Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Jose Quintana, Zach Eflin and Mike Clevinger have all come off the board recently. For teams still interested in starting pitching, Carlos Rodón is clear top option available, followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and others. Syndergaard’s name hadn’t been connected to many teams this offseason, though the Orioles had a Zoom call with him earlier this month.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Dodgers and Syndergaard were in agreement. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic first reported that it was a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first had the $13MM salary and incentives. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times first added the $1.5MM value of those incentives, with Ardaya further reporting the exact breakdown of those bonuses.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Dodgers Acquire Yonny Hernandez
The A’s announced they have traded infielder Yonny Hernandez to the Dodgers for cash considerations. Hernandez was designated for assignment earlier this week.
Hernandez, 25 in May, is a low-power, high-contact player. He has 55 games of MLB experience, including 43 with the Rangers last year and 12 with the Diamondbacks in 2022. He has a tepid .198/.293/.228 batting line in that time, but his 9.8% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate are both better than league average.
He spent most of 2022 in the minors, getting into 71 Triple-A games. He hit .241/.349/.324 in that time, walking in 11.7% of his plate appearances while striking out just 15.8% of the time. He also stole 30 bases, along with two more in the big leagues, something that is quite common for him. With the new rules in 2023 that encourage base stealing, that part of his game could become more valuable.
Hernandez brings a fair bit of defensive versatility to the table, having played the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as left and center field. He only has five minor league home runs in his career and none in the majors, but he has a good eye at the plate and can move around the field. He also still has a pair of option years remaining, allowing the Dodgers to keep him in the minors if they so choose.
The A’s claimed him off waivers from the Diamondbacks in November but designated him for assignment when they made their signings of Jace Peterson and Aledmys Díaz official. The Dodgers’ infield took a few hits in recent months when Trea Turner and Hanser Alberto hit free agency, they declined their club option on Justin Turner and non-tendered Edwin Ríos. Hernandez will give them a versatile depth option as they build out their roster for the coming season.