Identifying The Best Landing Spots For Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson is the last unsigned position player from MLBTR’s top ten free agents. He’ll be the final of the four top-tier shortstops to come off the board, and his destination will surely be influenced by how the market has already played out.
The Phillies and Giants entered the offseason widely regarded as potential landing spots for the top shortstops, particularly if San Francisco were to wind up missing on Aaron Judge. Few would’ve foreseen the Padres jumping into that mix for Xander Bogaerts, with San Diego taking one of the “big four” off the board and perhaps opening another landing spot for Swanson.
Let’s take a look at the most plausible remaining landing spots.
Best Fits
Cubs
The Cubs met with all four top shortstops at the outset of the offseason, but there’s no indication they’ve wanted to pay the enormous asking prices on any of the other three. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago wrote last night that discussions with Carlos Correa were limited to general outlines of possible financial parameters, with no formal offer being put on the table. Swanson figures to land the lowest deal of the group, perhaps making him a more palatable target for Chicago. Even if Swanson won’t push or exceed $300MM as Correa, Trea Turner and Bogaerts had, he’s likely to surpass $150MM. This would require the largest investment the Cubs have made since signing Jason Heyward seven years ago.
Is Chicago ownership willing to go to that level? They should have the payroll space to do so, as they’re around $157MM in projected 2023 commitments. That’s above where they’ve sat the last two seasons but nowhere near the $200MM+ franchise-record heights from a few years ago. The Cubs are coming off a second consecutive well below-average season, but they’ve continued to maintain they’re not in a rebuild. It’s hard to imagine acquisitions of Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger alone getting a 74-win team back to postseason contention, particularly since they also lost Willson Contreras to free agency. Even adding Swanson to the mix likely leaves them behind the Cardinals and Brewers, but he’s only entering his age-29 season and should still be productive in 2024 and beyond — when the Cubs have a more realistic path to competing. The presence of Nico Hoerner means the Cubs don’t need a shortstop. Second base looks as if it’ll be manned by Nick Madrigal or Christopher Morel, though, and adding Swanson and kicking Hoerner to the other side of the bag would solidify the middle infield.
Twins
The Twins missed on Correa, whose stay in Minneapolis lasted only one year. Their reported ten-year, $285MM bid came up well shy of the 13-year, $350MM contract he eventually received from the Giants. Minnesota finished 78-84 even with Correa, and while better health from their pitching staff should help in 2023, they’re behind the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central as presently constructed. Pivoting to Swanson is a natural fallback, and Minnesota had already been in touch with his representatives even before officially losing out on Correa.
Minnesota has ample payroll room, as illustrated by their ultimately unsuccessful proposal to Correa. They’re not likely to present Swanson with anywhere near the same offer, but ownership and the front office could allocate much of their remaining space to plugging the shortstop vacancy. The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last month. He’s probably better suited for a utility role on a contender but presently projects as the starting shortstop. Former first overall pick Royce Lewis could factor in midseason. He won’t be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his right knee for the second time last June. It’s anyone’s guess how much of his athleticism and explosiveness he’ll retain after a second straight massive injury. Even if Lewis comes back strong yet again, he could bounce around the diamond in a multi-positional role if Minnesota were to add Swanson.
Braves
The Braves have publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson, who has been their everyday shortstop for the past six seasons. There’s certainly a fit on the roster. Atlanta looks as if they’d roll with Orlando Arcia and eventually top prospect Vaughn Grissom if Swanson walks. The Braves have had success trusting young players like Grissom in recent years, but he’s not without risk. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his defense, and he’s played all of 63 games above High-A. In a division with the Mets and Phillies, the Braves are facing sharp competition to put their best foot forward.
As has been the issue for months, the question about Atlanta is financial. They’re already at franchise-record heights for their player payroll, and their early offseason work has focused on the trade market. The Braves brought in Sean Murphy and Joe Jiménez, leveraging young talent but not taking on any notable salaries. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves and Swanson had had minimal contact since the offseason began, writing their most recent offer would’ve come with an annual salary in the $16-17MM range over six or seven years. That looks extremely light, particularly given the strength of the rest of the shortstop market. The Braves could circle back, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted yesterday that Swanson — a Georgia native — would still like to return to Atlanta. At least as of last week, there was a huge gap to bridge in negotiations, though.
Viable But Longer Shots
Dodgers
The Dodgers have been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason after seemingly not showing significant interest in the other top shortstops. It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for L.A., perhaps in part due to a hope of resetting their luxury tax status by dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. That’s not clearly a mandate, but team officials have signaled a desire to integrate some of their highly-touted position player prospects into the mix. The Dodgers presently project for a $201MM competitive balance tax number, so they could squeeze Swanson in while staying below the line as things stand. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote this week, however, they won’t have official clarity on their tax number until the Trevor Bauer suspension is litigated. Gavin Lux is on hand as a potential shortstop option, with Chris Taylor possibly sliding to second base in that scenario.
Red Sox
Like the Dodgers and Twins, the Red Sox lost their star shortstop in free agency. They’re now seeking up-the-middle help and a right-handed bat to balance the lineup. Swanson would knock off those goals in one swoop, and Boston has nearly $40MM in payroll room before hitting the base tax threshold. Like the Dodgers, they’ve been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason. It’d still come as a surprise if they pivot towards a full-fledged pursuit of Swanson after watching Bogaerts depart. They reportedly put forth a six-year, $162MM offer to their incumbent star shortstop. While they may have been willing to go a bit above that, they never seemed interested in matching the $280MM figure laid out by San Diego. That’s understandable, although Swanson’s contract could well beat what Boston had offered Bogaerts. Would the Red Sox make a stronger offer to Swanson than they had to a homegrown star whom they’d repeatedly called their top offseason priority?
Seemingly Unlikely
- Angels: The Halos have an uncertain middle infield mix and could look outside the organization to pair with David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and perhaps Gio Urshela in that group. They’ve been fairly active early, taking on around $40MM in 2023 salary to add Urhsela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez. None of it has come with a longer commitment than the three years they guaranteed Anderson, though. Does owner Arte Moreno want to add a six-plus year deal to the books when he’s hoping to sell the franchise by Opening Day?
- Cardinals: The Cardinals were tied to Swanson earlier in the offseason. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested that was likelier to happen only if the Cards landed the catcher they considered a top priority via trade. Instead, they signed the top free agent available, Contreras, for $87.5MM over five seasons. A franchise-record contract for Swanson on top of that feels uncharacteristic for an organization that usually does its hefty lifting via trade.
- Diamondbacks: The D-Backs could use a shortstop and were loosely linked to Bogaerts earlier in the offseason. They’ve occasionally come out of nowhere to make a major free agent investment (see: Zack Greinke), but they haven’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll in either of the last two years. Bringing back Swanson, whom the previous front office initially drafted with the first overall pick in 2015, would make a lot of sense from a roster perspective, but the money probably isn’t lining up.
- Giants: San Francisco could probably accommodate another notable signing, as they’re presently projected around $27MM below the base luxury tax threshold. They’d likely be able to fit Swanson in while avoiding tax payments, but it feels unlikely after they nabbed Correa. Brandon Crawford and Wilmer Flores give them other options at second and third base. First base, center field and the bullpen all look like greater areas of need.
- Mariners: At the start of the offseason, the Mariners expressed some willingness to pursue a shortstop with an eye towards kicking him over to second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. They subsequently traded for Kolten Wong instead, which looks as if it’ll rule them out.
- Mets: The Mets warrant cursory mention on every top free agent at this point given owner Steve Cohen’s aggressiveness. They reportedly at least considered a run at Correa with an eye towards moving him to third base. Swanson isn’t that caliber of hitter, though, and kicking him over to third while displacing Eduardo Escobar, Luis Guillorme and top prospect Brett Baty seems like a stretch.
- Orioles: The Orioles were reportedly poking around the shortstop market at the start of the offseason. They’ve not actually shown any signs they want to make a major investment this winter, though. With a number of top infield prospects at the MLB level or on the horizon (i.e. Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz), a Swanson pursuit doesn’t seem to in the cards.
- Padres: San Diego is in Mets territory of warranting a mention on every free agent given their boldness, but the infield is already overloaded after the Bogaerts deal.
- Yankees: For a second straight offseason, the Yankees haven’t seemed much interested in exploring the top of a loaded shortstop class. They’ve maintained faith in prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to eventually seize that mantle. If they’re going to make another big investment after re-signing Judge, it seems Carlos Rodón is the target.
Note: all salary projections courtesy of Roster Resource
Where does the MLBTR readership expect Swanson to wind up?
(poll link for app users)
Where Will Dansby Swanson Sign?
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Cubs 34% (4,076)
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Braves 24% (2,885)
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Twins 15% (1,766)
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Dodgers 11% (1,273)
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Red Sox 9% (1,113)
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Other (specify in comments) 7% (879)
Total votes: 11,992
Dodgers Acquire J.P. Feyereisen
3:15pm: The Rays have officially announced the deal.
10:18am: The Rays are receiving minor league lefty Jeff Belge in the trade, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10:10am: The Dodgers and Rays have agreed to a trade sending right-hander J.P. Feyereisen from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The Rays will receive a minor league pitcher in exchange for Feyereisen, who underwent shoulder surgery last week and is expected to be sidelined into late August. The Rays designated Feyereisen for assignment yesterday to make roster space for newly signed Zach Eflin.
It’s a long-term play for the Dodgers, as Feyereisen is still controllable through the 2026 season via arbitration. The Rays would surely have loved to keep Feyereisen until this spring, when they could place him on the 60-day injured list and free up his 40-man roster spot. However, Tampa Bay also has righties Shane Baz and Andrew Kittredge recovering from Tommy John surgery and in need of 60-day IL spots when camp opens. As such, carrying all three until Spring Training would’ve effectively amounted to Tampa Bay operating with a 37-man roster instead of a 40-man roster for the balance of the offseason.
Feyereisen’s DFA raised plenty of eyebrows yesterday, as the right-hander rattled off 24 1/3 scoreless innings for the Rays in 2022 before being shelved by the shoulder injury that eventually led to the recent operation to repair both his right rotator cuff and labrum. A year prior, Feyereisen had turned in 56 innings of 2.73 ERA ball, albeit with a bloated 14.1% walk rate that created some skepticism about his ability to sustain that pace.
The now-29-year-old righty (30 in February) not only improved his command in 2022 but sent his walk rate plummeting to 5.8% — a mark that’s leaps and bounds better than league average. All told, Feyereisen has 89 2/3 innings of experience at the big league level and has pitched to a 2.31 ERA with a 23.8% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate. However, if he can sustain any of the 2022 strides he made in terms of strikeout rate (29.1%) or walk rate, he has the potential to be a vital late-inning arm for the Dodgers for three-plus seasons. And, because he’s unlikely to pitch much this season, his first trip through the arbitration process next winter shouldn’t produce a particularly large salary.
Belge, 25, was the Dodgers’ 18th-round pick in 2019 and spent the 2022 season pitching for their High-A affiliate, where he logged a 3.66 ERA in 32 innings and fanned a whopping 36.7% of his opponents — albeit against a concerning 12.5% walk rate. Belge was older than the average competition in the Midwest League in 2022 — his second stint at that level — but has drawn praise from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen for a 96 mph heater and above-average slider.
The Dodgers have a trio of open spots on the 40-man roster, so it’s far easier for them to roster Feyereisen for the time being, even if he’ll now bump them up to 38. They’ll part ways with a hard-throwing lefty who has a penchant for missing bats and could begin the 2023 season in Double-A. By the time 2024 rolls around, it’s possible that both Feyereisen and Belge are ready for work in their respective teams’ big league bullpens, though Belge is far from a sure thing given his shaky command and a history of eye troubles dating back to a freak injury in his childhood days.
Giants Have Been In Contact With Dansby Swanson
The market for shortstop Dansby Swanson has begun to heat up, according to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports. He lists the Dodgers, Giants, Twins, Cubs, Red Sox and Braves as teams with interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Giants have been in touch with Swanson’s representatives, but that it doesn’t appear any decision is imminent.
The Twins, Cubs, Red Sox and Braves have all previously been connected to Swanson this offseason, though the mentions of the Dodgers and Giants are new. This offseason featured a group of shortstops known as the “big four,” with Trea Turner already signed with the Phillies and Xander Bogaerts with the Padres. That leaves Carlos Correa and Swanson as the two of that group left for all those shortstop-needy teams.
Though Correa and Swanson are connected in the sense that they are the two surefire everyday shortstops remaining, there’s a significant difference between the two. Both have strong reputations for their glovework, though Correa’s overall body of work at the plate is stronger. At the start of the season, MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM contract for Correa but a seven-year, $154MM deal for Swanson.
Most teams would surely prefer Correa in a vacuum but the price might be an issue. Both Turner and Bogaerts got at least three years longer than projected and each secured a larger overall guarantee as well. With that context, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Correa and Swanson also end up getting deals larger than their projections.
The Giants were seen by many as the favorites for Correa after they made an offer in the $360MM range to Aaron Judge that he declined in order to return to the Yankees. However, it stands to reason that they would also reach out to Swanson and see if there’s a significant difference in the respective markets. Since the Judge non-signing, they’ve agreed to some smaller deals for Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, bringing their 2023 payroll up to $164MM, per Roster Resource. It’s unclear how far they want to push spending this offseason, but they are still sitting on a competitive balance tax figure of $180MM, leaving them over $50MM of room before reaching the lowest luxury tax barrier of $233MM.
Giving Correa a salary in the $30MM range wouldn’t push them into the luxury tax on its own, but they do have other needs on the roster as well. They are reportedly still interested in retaining Carlos Rodón, who will also require a contract somewhere in the vicinity of $30MM on an annual basis. Adding both Rodón and Correa would start pushing them into luxury tax territory, whereas the dropdown to Swanson could lead to something closer to $20MM annually. If the CBT barrier is something they’re trying to avoid, then it’s possible the difference between a Correa and a Swanson deal could be significant for them.
For the Dodgers, they have lost their incumbent shortstop in Turner, who is now with the Phillies. The club is reportedly comfortable with moving Gavin Lux from second base to be their new shortstop, though it also makes sense for them to explore what else is available. However, they are apparently not pursuing Correa, given both his ties to the scandal-plagued 2017 Astros team that defeated the Dodgers in the World Series, as well as his high asking price. Perhaps Swanson is an attractive backup plan for the club, though they might also prefer to wait until they get clarity on the Trevor Bauer situation before making firm commitments. He is appealing his suspension and if he is successful in overturning it, the club’s CBT figure would jump from around $189MM to over $220MM. A decision is expected in the next month or so.
If that scenario were to come to pass, even a slightly more modest deal for Swanson would push them over the line into tax payor status. Since the club is reportedly considering dipping under the line to reset their status, that could be an issue. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive seasons, meaning that the Dodgers could stay under the line in 2023 but go into 2024 as “first-time” payors.
Though he’s likely to secure a lesser contract than Correa, Swanson is no slouch. He hit 27 home runs in 2022 and produced an overall batting line of .277/.329/.447 for a wRC+ of 116. That was his first time being above-average at the plate over a full season, though it showed that he is capable of being an all-around contributor. He also stole 18 bases and posted excellent defensive marks, leading to 6.4 wins above replacement on the season, in the eyes of FanGraphs.
How Much Can The Dodgers Do Under The Luxury Tax?
We’re now over a month into the offseason and it’s been a strong one for the players, with many of the top free agents landing contracts that have surpassed expectations. While there’s been plenty of aggression from teams that haven’t traditionally been top dogs like the Mets, Padres and Rangers, the Dodgers have been unusually quiet so far.
The Dodgers opened the 2022 season with a payroll of $281MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. At the end of the year, they had a large crop of players hit free agency, wiping a huge chunk of change off the books. Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney were all making noteworthy money in 2022 before hitting the open market, with a few midseason pickups and role players departing as well. The Dodgers then cleared out even more money by non-tendering Cody Bellinger and his projected $18.1MM arbitration salary as well as declining Justin Turner‘s $16MM club option for 2023.
With all of that, it was certainly a possibility that the club could come into the winter spending wildly and getting their payroll back up to last year’s levels. But while the free agents have been coming off the board with eye-popping deals, the Dodgers have largely been laying in the cut so far. Since the offseason began, the club has re-signed Kershaw and added Shelby Miller on one-year deals, for $20MM and $1.5MM, respectively. Those contracts have brought the club’s payroll for 2023 up to $173MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $189MM.
That leaves the Dodgers plenty of room to work with, in a sense. That pure payroll figure is more than $100MM below what they carried last year and that CBT figure is more than $40MM shy of the lowest CBT threshold. It’s possible they are simply playing a long game, waiting for the frenzy of the early offseason to die down and searching for bargains later in the winter. But there are also reasons to suspect they might continue being fairly inactive.
For one thing, there’s the Trevor Bauer situation to consider. The club signed him to a three-year, $102MM deal going into the 2021 season, though Bauer only made 17 starts for them. He was placed on administrative leave in July 2021 while the league investigated assault allegations against him. In April 2022, he was given a two-year suspension, covering the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. That suspension was without pay, wiping Bauer’s salary from the club’s commitments.
However, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently wrote about Bauer’s attempt to appeal that suspension, with a decision from an arbiter expected either this month or next month. If the suspension were to be completely overturned, the Dodgers will have to pay him for both 2022 and 2023, a $32MM salary for each. That’s true even if the club immediately releases Bauer after that decision. That’s a decent amount of money in itself, but Shaikin points out the Dodgers were luxury tax payors this year and would potentially have to pay extra fees on Bauer’s reinstated salary as well. In terms of 2023, the club’s CBT figure would jump to over $220MM. Shaikin also points out it’s possible the suspension is merely reduced, which would leave the club on the hook for some but not all of that money.
That decision will have a big impact on the club’s financial outlook going forward, so it stands to reason they want to wait and get some clarity there before making huge commitments. There are also more traditional baseball reasons for playing the waiting game, though. The departure of those aforementioned free agents has created many holes in the roster, but they might be able to fill them internally with their strong crop of prospects. On Baseball America’s most recent top 100 list, the Dodgers featured seven players, six of them in the top 52 spots. MLB Pipeline also has seven Dodgers on their list. FanGraphs is a bit less bullish but still puts five young Dodgers in the top 100.
Not only are these prospects highly regarded around the sport, they mostly are close to the majors or already there. Right-hander Ryan Pepiot made his MLB debut in 2022 while fellow righties Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone reached Triple-A. Third baseman Miguel Vargas cracked the majors this year while second baseman Michael Busch spent most of the year in Triple-A. Outfielder Andy Pages isn’t far behind, having spent the year in Double-A. Catcher Diego Cartaya is a bit further away, having spent most of this season in High-A, but he fared well and will likely be in Double-A to start 2023.
It’s possible the club thinks it’s time to let these younger players step up and start folding over a new leaf. “Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors,” Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten told Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times last month. “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.” That certainly suggests the club is willing to let their pricey free agents walk and attempt to replace them with younger and cheaper alternatives.
There’s no guarantee a prospect will come up and succeed at the major league level, no matter how high their praise among evaluators. But teams can’t build successful rosters through free agency alone and have to at least produce some talent from their own pipeline. There is certainly risk in trying to achieve that, but the Dodgers aren’t in a terrible place right now, on paper. Despite the many departures and modest activity thus far, the club’s overall projected WAR currently ranks sixth in all of baseball, according to FanGraphs.
The club will surely be looking to make improvements there, though how aggressive they will be is to be seen. It’s been suggested by some the team would like to stay under the luxury tax in 2023 in order to spend more aggressively next winter when Shohei Ohtani is likely to be the top free agent available. As a reminder, the CBT carries increasing penalties for clubs that pay it in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers have paid the tax in 2021 and 2022 and would be a third-time payor if they did so again in 2023. However, if they stayed under this year, they would reset and could cross the line again in 2024 as a “first-time” payor and significantly lower penalties. With so many contracts coming off the books and so many prospects ready to debut, it would seem now is a good time to flip that reset switch. But if that is indeed the plan, the Bauer decision will loom even larger. If the suspension is upheld, the club has over $40MM to work with before nearing the line, but the number is closer to $10MM if the decision is overturned.
Either way, there’s still plenty of talent currently on the roster. As mentioned, FanGraphs considers them the sixth-best club in the majors at the moment. The rotation is in decent shape with Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May taking up four spots. There are some injury question marks with that group but it’s got a lot of upside. They also have the aforementioned prospects as options for the back-end and depth, with Pepiot, Miller and Stone in the mix. The bullpen has some exciting young pitchers in Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol.
There’s plenty of talent on the position player side as well, with many of them capable of moving around to other positions as needed. Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game and will be behind the plate. The club is reportedly comfortable with Gavin Lux moving from second base to shortstop. Super utility guy Chris Taylor could take over the keystone for him. At the corners, Freddie Freeman will have first base spoken for while Vargas could get an extended audition at the hot corner. Max Muncy can spend some time at first, second and third while also acting as the designated hitter somewhat regularly. In the outfield, Mookie Betts will have one position spoken for while Trayce Thompson should have another. That leaves one spot open for either Busch or James Outman, a prospect a bit behind Busch on the rankings but one who’s posted huge numbers in the upper minors and has already made his MLB debut. There’s also the possibility Muncy takes over second base while Taylor spend significant time in the outfield.
If the club has $40MM to work with, there are plenty of ways for them to spread it around to improve the team while still leaving room for their younger players to take a step forward. Adding a starter would bump their prospects out of the top five but opportunities would surely come up throughout the year. Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Even with a free agent addition, opportunities will undoubtedly arise for Pepiot, Miller and Stone.
The top remaining free agent starter is Carlos Rodón, who was predicted by MLBTR for a salary of $28MM but is reportedly looking for a seven-year deal and could theoretically take a lesser annual salary to max out his guarantee. The Dodgers usually prefer higher salaries and shorter terms but they could change their tune if they’re focused on their CBT hit in 2023. Even adding about $25MM for someone like Rodón would leave the club with room for other upgrades, so there isn’t really any starting pitcher they couldn’t fit into their plans in this scenario. Some of the other options available include Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and old friend Ross Stripling.
Adding an outfielder seems a possibility, as it was reported the club made a run at Kevin Kiermaier before he agreed to join the Blue Jays. If the club looks to other options, they likely won’t need to break the bank. The top options are already off the board with Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo each agreeing to rejoin their respective New York clubs. That leaves Andrew Benintendi as arguably the top guy left in this department. MLBTR predicted he would land a $54MM contract over four years, or $13.5MM per season.
The club could also pursue an infielder and bump Taylor into spending more time on the grass, perhaps with Lux staying at second. The top remaining option there is Carlos Correa, though it seems he’s not in the club’s plans. That leaves one other marquee option in Dansby Swanson, with a big drop down to less exciting options like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura, Brandon Drury or Justin Turner. Swanson was predicted for a $22MM salary over seven years for a $154MM total, while those other names will surely come in under that.
There are plenty of enticing options in any of those paths, but the club would have to be willing to cross the luxury tax again in order to do all of them. If they are indeed planning on staying under, they will like have to make tougher choices about which of these areas are worth their investments and which are worth leaving open for the young ones. Staying under the tax wouldn’t completely hamper the club, as they would almost certainly go into the next season pegged by many for a postseason spot. But FanGraphs currently considers them the fourth-best team in the National League, behind the Braves and the hyper-aggressive Mets and Padres. A modest offseason could still leave the Dodgers in decent shape, but it could perhaps knock them off their pedestal as perennial favorites.
Quick Hits: Kiermaier, Dodgers, Red Sox, Marlins, Bellinger, Bell, Rays, Diaz, Reds
Kevin Kiermaier is off the market after agreeing to a deal with the Blue Jays earlier today, and the former Gold Glover was drawing interest elsewhere on the market. The Dodgers “were in the running down to the end” on Kiermaier, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), as Kiermaier was presumably being eyed as the left-handed hitting, center field replacement for Cody Bellinger. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is no stranger to Kiermaier, as Friedman was the Rays’ general manager when Kiermaier began his career in Tampa Bay.
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is also a former member of Tampa’s front office, but Kiermaier and the Sox had only “periphery discussions” about a possible contract, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Adding Kiermaier would’ve helped the Sox address their needs in the outfield, but the newly-signed Masataka Yoshida is Boston’s biggest swing in the outfield market to date. For now, the first-choice Red Sox starting outfield looks like Yoshida in left field, Enrique Hernandez in center, and Alex Verdugo in right.
More from around baseball…
- Speaking of past pursuits, Bellinger and Josh Bell were among the players “targeted” by the Marlins, according to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Both free agents are now off the market, after Bellinger signed with the Cubs and Bell joined the Guardians. Bellinger would’ve been a natural fit for the Marlins’ longstanding need in center field, and would’ve at least provided strong defense, even if it remains to be seen if his bat can return to anything close to his past MVP levels of production. Bell has provided solid (if not always consistent) offense over the last two seasons, and the Marlins naturally have a lot of familiarity with Bell from his days with the Nationals. Miami already parted ways with Lewin Diaz and Garrett Cooper has been a trade candidate in the past, so it would seem like first base could be a target position for the Marlins as they look to add some much-needed pop to their lineup.
- Though the Rays are also looking to add offense and particularly a left-handed hitting first base option, Bell “wasn’t high on their list,” Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. It’s a moot point anyway with Bell now in Cleveland, and the Rays can continue their search for a bat at just about any position. “Outside of maybe a shortstop, there probably aren’t too many other areas where we’d say, ‘No, we don’t have any interest in that’….We’re fortunate, because we have enough moving pieces and versatility with our players that there’s a lot of different players we could bring in and make it work,” Rays GM Peter Bendix told Topkin and other reporters.
- “Teams have checked” in with the Reds about Alexis Diaz, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. No trade seems close or particularly likely, given how the rookie right-hander looks more like a building block than a trade chip. In his first MLB season, Diaz finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a 1.84 ERA over 63 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen. Apart from a very high 12.9% walk rate, Diaz’s Statcast metrics were otherwise excellent, and he could be on his way to joining older brother Edwin as a star closer. Interestingly, the Mets explored a trade for the younger Diaz before the trade deadline, but while Cincinnati is in a rebuild phase, Nightengale figures it “would take an absolute haul to even pique the Reds’ interest” in a Diaz swap.
Dodgers Sign Jason Heyward To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers announced Thursday that they’ve signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.
The Cubs released Heyward earlier this offseason. He’d been slated to head into the 2023 campaign in the final season of his eight-year, $184MM deal signed prior to the 2016 campaign. Chicago remains on the hook for the bulk of Heyward’s $22MM salary in 2023, and the Dodgers will only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on their Major League roster or injured list. That sum would be subtracted from the $22MM owed by the Cubs.
Heyward, still just 33, spent seven seasons with the Cubs but struggled to live up to the expectations of that contract. After hitting .293/.359/.439 with all-world defense in his lone season as a Cardinal prior to reaching the open market, Heyward hit just .230/.306/.325 in the first season of his eight-year deal. The Cubs won the World Series that year, with the final victory famously preceded by a spirited clubhouse speech from Heyward during a rain delay. That makes for a good anecdote but ultimately does little to overshadow a generally underwhelming tenure with the Cubs.
Heyward posted above-average offensive numbers with the Cubs only in the 2019 season and in the shortened 2020 campaign, when he combined for a .255/.355/.435 output in 770 plate appearances. That solid run was bookended by a total of five sub-par seasons at the plate, though, and Heyward’s final batting line as a member of the Cubs clocked in at just .245/.323/.377. He provided plus defense, value on the bases and was clearly an important figure in the clubhouse, but there’s no getting around the fact that the contract didn’t pan out anywhere close to how either party hoped. By measure of wins above replacement, Heyward gave the Cardinals nearly as much value in 2015 (5.6 fWAR, 6.8 bWAR) as he gave the Cubs over a seven-year period from 2016-22 (8.2 fWAR, 8.9 bWAR).
The Dodgers will hope that a change of scenery, some different coaching and some input from a different data/analytics team might be able to help Heyward tap into some semblance of his old self. Righting this ship will be a tall order, as Heyward’s once-elite defensive grades have dwindled down to nearly average. Heyward still possesses a strong arm, but he was never a burner in the first place and Statcast ranked his 2022 sprint speed in the 44th percentile of big leaguers.
Heyward won’t be guaranteed anything more than an opportunity with the Dodgers, who’ll be able to cut him loose at any point in camp if they wish to allocate his Cactus League at-bats to younger options. That said, there’s at least some degree of an opportunity for him, at least as things currently stand with the L.A. roster. Having non-tendered Cody Bellinger and lost Trea Turner to the Phillies via free agency, the Dodgers currently have some unsettled spots in the lineup. For now, Chris Taylor seems likely to move from left field to second base, with Gavin Lux sliding to shortstop. That creates some more fluidity in an outfield mix that right now might contain both Trayce Thompson and 25-year-old rookie James Outman.
There will certainly be more moves on the horizon for the Dodgers, whether they pivot and make a play for Dansby Swanson at shortstop — they’re reportedly not pursuing Carlos Correa — or whether they bring in some new talent to deepen the outfield mix. Any subsequent additions could serve to further limit Heyward’s chances, but there’s little harm in bringing him to camp this spring and seeing if they can conjure up yet another successful reclamation project.
Dodgers “Are Not Pursuing” Carlos Correa
The departure of Trea Turner to the Phillies has left the Dodgers with a bit of a hole at shortstop, but it seems they won’t be filling that spot with top free agent option Carlos Correa. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team is not pursuing the former Astro and Twin, in part due to his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing team of 2017 that beat the Dodgers in the World Series, and how that might upset a large portion of their fanbase.
The financial aspect of signing a player like Correa is playing a part too as the 28-year-old could command a deal in excess of $300MM. The Dodgers’ payroll is on track to be significantly lower than in 2022, and they certainly have the financial muscle to take on a contract like that, but they’re also waiting on whether or not Major League Baseball opts to uphold Trevor Bauer‘s two-year suspension for violating the league’s policy on sexual assault and domestic violence.
Should the suspension be upheld, the Dodgers won’t owe anything to Bauer, but if it’s overturned or reduced the Dodgers will be on the hook for all or part of his salary. As Bill Shaikin of the LA Times notes, there’s $60MM of salary at stake, although that number could rise to as much as $100MM, as the Dodgers are a third-time luxury tax offender. As Rosenthal notes, it’s enough cost uncertainty for the Dodgers to be wary of adding significant payroll this winter.
The news that they’re not pursuing Correa doesn’t necessarily rule them out of spending on a shortstop, and although reports have indicated there’s momentum towards Xander Bogaerts returning to the Red Sox, the Dodgers have been connected with him earlier in the off-season. Dansby Swanson is the other top shortstop available, while lower profile options in free agency include Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus. Alternatively, they could just plug Gavin Lux in at shortstop and seek to replace the lost offense from Turner in other areas.
Such areas could include center field, as well as adding another middle-of-the-order bat and a starting pitcher. Rosenthal notes that the team is looking to rely more heavily on young, minimum salary players this year, and free agent additions would be more modestly priced, and cites Kevin Kiermaier and J.D. Martinez as options, while the team has been connected to Andrew McCutchen recently. The Dodgers do have the likes of Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Jacob Amaya on the roster all with less than a year of service time, and they could be candidates to see increased playing time next season.
For Correa, while having a big market team like the Dodgers involved in the bidding certainly doesn’t hurt negotiations, he’ll still find plenty of suitors. The Twins have been aggressive in trying to re-sign him, while the Cubs have already met with him at the Winter Meetings and have the payroll to take on a big, long-term contract. The Giants are also a team to watch now that they’ve missed out on Aaron Judge, as they too have the deep pockets and payroll space required to sign Correa to a lengthy contract.
2022 Rule 5 Draft Results
The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.
As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.
This post will be updated with the results as they come in…
First Round
1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass
Second Round
- All teams passed
The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.
Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest
DECEMBER 7: The Angels, Nationals and Dodgers are also in the market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.
DECEMBER 6, 8:01pm: The Red Sox are also expressing interest in Lugo, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).
DECEMBER 6, 6:39pm: Right-hander Seth Lugo has been drawing interest as a starting pitcher and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that working as a starter is Lugo’s preference as well, with the Padres one of several teams interested in him.
It’s been a while since Lugo has been tried out in a rotation role for more than a brief stretch. His career high for starts in a big league season is 18, which came back in 2017. Since that time, he’s been primarily working out of the bullpen, serving as an effective reliever for the Mets.
In 278 career games, only 38 of them have been starts, but Lugo has a career 3.48 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s fared much better out of the ‘pen, as his ERA is 2.91 there while 4.35 as a starter, with more strikeouts as a reliever to match.
Despite that split, as mentioned, it’s been quite some time since Lugo’s been given an extended stretch in the rotation. That means most of those stats came from Lugo’s first two years in the big leagues, when he made 26 of those 38 career starts. It’s possible he’s capable of producing better results now that he has more experience. He also has a larger pitch mix than the average reliever, something that could help him move through a lineup a few times. Last year, he had four pitches that he threw at least 13.7% of the time, with his curveball leading the way at 33.5%, followed by his four-seamer at 29.3%, his sinker at 21.9% and his slider at 13.7%. He also has a changeup that he mixed in 1.6% of the time, though it’s been 7.1% for his career.
For the Padres, they lost a couple members of their rotation to free agency in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea, while also trading MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals. Nick Martinez opted out of his contract but was quickly re-signed and seems to have a chance of retaking a rotation spot himself, after getting bumped to the bullpen. They currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the front three spots. It would be surprising to see them go into the season with the last two spots in their rotation dedicated to unproven options like Martinez and Lugo, especially when they just reportedly offered Trea Turner $342MM. But it’s possible they could also add a fourth starter and have those Martinez and Lugo battle for the fifth spot with one of them going to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. Though Lugo reportedly prefers to start, it’s unknown how he would value a non-guaranteed starting role on a contender like the Padres against a clearer path to starting on a less-competitive team.
San Diego’s payroll limits are an ongoing question. As mentioned, they just made a massive offer to Turner, but some reporting indicates they were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily dedicate those resources to other players. As of right now, Roster Resource calculates their competitive balance tax figure at $230MM, just barely under the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. With the club still seeking to upgrade in the rotation and elsewhere, going over the line seems inevitable. Lugo isn’t likely to break the bank as a back-end rotation candidate but every dollar over the line will count. Since the Padres are set to be a third-time payor, they will be subject to a 50% tax on all spending over the line and even higher penalties if they go over by $20MM or more.
Coaching Notes: Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Marlins
The Angels are hiring Bill Haselman to be their new third base coach, per general manager Perry Minasian (relayed by Sam Blum of The Athletic). Haselman appeared for the Rangers, Red Sox, Mariners and Tigers during a 13 year big league career. In 589 games, the catcher put together a .259/.311/.409 line with 47 total home runs. After retiring in 2003, Haselman went straight into coaching, working for the Red Sox as a first base coach and then bullpen coach. He took a break from baseball coaching but returned in 2010, taking a managerial job at one of the Texas Rangers’ minor league affiliates.
He continued working with minor league affiliates of the Angels and Dodgers over the next few years, making it up to Triple-A where he took charge of Oklahoma City between 2016-18. He joined the Angels major league staff at the beginning of the year, succeeding Jose Molina as catching coach. Now he’ll take over third base coach duties on Phil Nevin’s staff.
Here’s some other coaching news from around the big leagues:
- The Dodgers are promoting Aaron Bates to hitting coach, where he’ll work alongside Robert Van Scoyoc, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed (h/t Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). Bates had a brief stint in the majors in 2009, getting four hits in five games for the Red Sox. He bounced around the minor leagues plenty, but retired after the 2014 season with the Dodgers. While he played just 11 games that year, it was an entrance into the Dodgers organization that Bates hasn’t left. He held a series of jobs at their minor league affiliates before joining the big league team as assistant hitting coach in 2019. His promotion comes on the back of the departure of Brant Brown, who’s joined the Marlins.
- The Mets have extended Glenn Sherlock’s contract through until 2024 as part of his shift from bench coach to catching instructor, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Sherlock played seven years in the minor leagues back in the 1980s, making it as high as Triple-A. He’s held coaching positions with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Pirates. Sherlock initially joined the Mets in 2017, serving as their third base coach and catching instructor before departing for Pittsburgh in 2020. He returned at the start of this year as bench coach, but will make way for Eric Chavez in that position.
- New Marlins manager Skip Schumaker is bringing in former Cardinals hitting coach John Mabry into his team as assistant hitting coach, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Mabry spent eight years with the Cardinals as part of a 14 year big league career (that also included a stop at the Marlins) that ended in 2007. Mabry worked with the Cardinals between 2012-18 as a hitting coach, but left when then-manager Mike Matheny was fired. He’s since been working for the Royals. Schumaker and Mabry played together on the 2005 Cardinals team.