Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects
In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.
It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.
Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.
It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.
Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).
Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.
Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.
Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.
A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.
Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.
Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.
Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.
Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.
In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.
That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.
Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.
To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.
With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.
Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.
Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.
Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.
The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.
Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.
Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.
Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.
Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.
The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.
Dodgers Acquire Danny Duffy From Royals
The Royals parted ways with one of the faces of their franchise this evening, announcing a trade to send Danny Duffy to the Dodgers in exchange for a player to be named later. Kansas City will include an undisclosed amount of cash to offset some or all of his remaining salary. To create 40-man roster space, the Dodgers designated outfielder DJ Peters for assignment.
Duffy had full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player (one with ten years of major league service, the five most recent having been with the same team). However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported a few weeks ago the Southern California native might be willing waive that protection to facilitate a deal to a West Coast club. That has indeed proven to be the case. The southpaw is currently on the 10-day injured list with a flexor strain in his throwing forearm, but Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore told reporters this week he’d be able to return at some point this season, perhaps near the end of August.
The move brings to an end — at least temporarily — Duffy’s long tenure in the Royals organization. Kansas City selected him out of high school in the third round of the 2007 draft. He made his big league debut in 2011 and has been with the club for over a decade, crossing the ten-year service milestone last month.
It was an unequivocally successful Kansas City tenure for Duffy, who emerged as a fixture in the rotation for almost the entirety of that time. He’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA across 1172 1/3 innings over the course of his career. A key piece of the Royals’ 2015 World Series championship team, Duffy signed a five-year, $65MM extension in January 2017.
That deal expires at the end of the season, though. With the Royals in fourth place in the AL Central, there’s plenty of sense in moving his final few months of team control to add some younger talent. For Duffy, the trade serves him well geographically and gives him an opportunity to pitch in a pennant race at the end of the year.
Of course, nothing stops the Royals from pursuing a reunion with Duffy this winter. He’s beloved amongst team personnel and fans. It seems that’s reciprocated, as the 32-year-old has gone on record in the past about his affinity for the organization and the city. The Royals haven’t been shy about pursuing free agent reunions with members of their mid-2010’s teams in recent years, and it’s possible they’ll take a similar course of action with Duffy during the upcoming offseason.
For the stretch run, the Dodgers are adding a pitcher who quietly had a fantastic start to the year — one that contributed to the Royals’ league-best record over the first few weeks of the season. Through his first seven starts, Duffy tossed 41 2/3 innings of 1.94 ERA/2.34 FIP ball. He struck out a lofty 28.2% of opposing hitters in that time against a tiny 7.1% walk rate and looked to have returned to the mid-rotation form he showed during his peak seasons.
Duffy landed on the IL with a flexor strain on May 17 and missed around five weeks. He built back arm strength on the fly upon his return, working shorter stints at the big league level rather than embarking upon a rehab assignment. Duffy stretched back out to five innings by early July, but he eventually went down with the same injury and landed on the IL on July 20.
It’s not clear how much volume Los Angeles can expect from Duffy, given that he won’t have much time to rehab from his latest injury. The Dodgers have been known to be on the hunt for starting pitching, but it’s also possible they activate Duffy as a multi-inning relief weapon. Whatever the role, the hope is he’ll be able to help the Dodgers in their battle with the Giants and Padres for the NL West and during their postseason run. The Duffy addition didn’t deter the Dodgers from putting together a prospect package likely to land Max Scherzer from the Nationals.
Duffy is making $15.5MM this season, around $5.4MM of which remains to be paid. It’s not precisely clear how much of the tab the Royals are picking up. Duffy’s luxury tax figure (calculated by the contract’s average annual value, not actual salary) is $13MM — so he carries an approximate $4.5MM luxury number the rest of the way. The Dodgers have already exceeded $260MM in luxury tax obligations, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That puts them in the highest bracket, so they’ll pay a 62.5% tax on any expenditures they take on this summer (on Duffy’s contract and other potential acquisitions).
To determine their return, the Royals will be free to choose from an agreed-upon list of players in the Dodgers’ system. They’ll have up to six months to make a decision, with the PTBNL setup particularly helpful for teams to continue to evaluate prospects after last year’s minor league season was canceled. Players selected in the 2021 draft cannot be traded as players to be named later until after the season is finished.
Peters has long been considered one of the more interesting position player prospects in the Dodgers organization. His combination of big raw power and speed has impressed scouts, and he’s generally been productive at the minor league level despite a sky-high strikeout rate. That hasn’t been the case this season, though, as the right-handed hitter has stumbled to a .223/.319/.372 line over 204 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City.
The Dodgers could trade Peters before tomorrow’s deadline. If they don’t, he’ll find himself on waivers. Between his proximity to the big leagues (Peters actually made a brief debut this year), decent prospect pedigree, and pair of remaining minor league option years, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he finds himself on another roster in the coming days.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Duffy was being traded to the Dodgers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Royals would receive a player to be named later. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the inclusion of cash in the deal.
Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Active Teams In Jose Berrios Market
5:44 pm: The Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox are the most active teams in the Berrios market, reports Heyman, who adds that the division’s other contender, the Yankees, have also checked in. It doesn’t seem likely that the Mets — who have long been interested in Berrios but deterred by the Twins’ asking price — will wind up landing him. The Mets continue to be put off by Minnesota’s demand, hears Andy Martino of SNY, and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com suggests that’s also the case in discussions between the two clubs regarding Pineda.
2:39pm: The Twins have numerous offers in hand for Berrios, per Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic, who add that the market has exceeded the Twins’ initial expectations (Twitter link). A trade is seen as increasingly likely. TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that the Blue Jays are “definitely” in the mix for Berrios.
2:34pm: The Twins are getting “bombarded” with offers for Berrios, Nightengale tweets, adding that the Padres in particular are being aggressive in their efforts.
1:58pm: Some teams who’ve spoken to the Twins about Berrios get the sense that they’re more willing to move him now than they were earlier in the summer, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman lists the Dodgers as a team with interest, and, like myriad other recent reports, also indicates the Padres have interest. Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently wrote that the Padres had interest in Berrios, Michael Pineda and Kenta Maeda. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that San Diego is more focused on Berrios than on Max Scherzer.
8:11am: The Twins have already traded away Nelson Cruz, and with an off-day Thursday, today’s focus figures to be entirely on their deadline efforts to reload the club for 2022 and beyond. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s most coveted trade candidate, and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that offers for Berrios “have spiked” with the trade deadline now less than 48 hours away.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Mariners have been pursuing a Berrios acquisition this week, with the Twins focusing on one of Seattle’s top pitching prospects (Emerson Hancock or George Kirby) as part of a multi-player return. The two sides aren’t close to a deal, Morosi adds. Both Hancock (2020) and Kirby (2019) were first-round picks in recent Mariners drafts and have pitched at Class-A Advanced this year. Both players have missed time with shoulder fatigue this year, but Hancock returned this week and Kirby is expected back within the next couple of weeks, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweeted a couple days ago.
The Mets, too, have been linked to Berrios throughout the month of July, but all indications to this point have been that they consider the asking price too steep. Indeed, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Mets are “very” interested but also had “sticker shock” when the Twins initially asked for a combination of two top-100 prospects and a young big leaguer. Beyond that, the Mets’ lack of premium pitching prospects may be a problem. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets would perhaps need to involve a third team if they hoped to actually land Berrios. They’ve recently been more connected to rental pitchers.
Of course, virtually every contender or pseudo-contender has checked in with the Twins on Berrios’ asking price, given his affordable $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season as well as his remaining year of arbitration eligibility before free agency. The 27-year-old Berrios is enjoying the best season of an already impressive career, having pitched to a 3.48 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (25.7) and ground-ball percentage (43.6). His 6.5 percent walk rate is the second-lowest of his career, and the durable right-hander’s current pace would put him in line to land somewhere in the 195 to 200 range in terms of total innings pitched.
Red Sox Among Teams In Mix For Max Scherzer
3:10 pm: While reports this morning suggested the Padres were more focused on Berrios, the Friars have “intensified” their efforts to land the Nationals ace this afternoon, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).
11:44am: The Red Sox are indeed in the mix for Scherzer, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that Scherzer is open to a trade to Boston. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, meanwhile, hears that Scherzer would not approve a trade to the Astros or Phillies.
9:54am: Max Scherzer remains the most intriguing trade candidate on the market, and interested parties will get one more look at him before deciding on an asking price. Nats skipper Dave Martinez announced to reporters Thursday morning that Scherzer will start Game 1 of today’s doubleheader against the Phillies (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). It seems likely this will be Scherzer’s final start with the Nationals, and it’ll serve as an audition of sorts to prove that his triceps is at full strength; Scherzer was scratched from his Saturday start due to minor triceps discomfort, but an MRI has since come back clean.
With a reported preference to land with one of the three NL West contenders and full no-trade rights to help guide him to a destination he likes, it feels like a matter of when he’s traded rather than one of if. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets that there’s a feeling throughout the organization that a trade will come together today.
That’s sensible, as the Nats want to leave as much time as possible post-agreement to sort out the finer details of Scherzer waiving his no-trade rights. Adjustments to his contract’s salary deferrals or smaller details along those lines could be arranged as compensation for Scherzer waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade protection. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Covid outbreak with which the Nationals are currently dealing may have preoccupied some key Nats personnel and slowed the pace of talks, as some expected them to have a deal in place by last night.
The acquisition price for premium rentals (e.g. Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte) has been viewed as steep thus far, and Rosenthal unsurprisingly suggests that Washington has a high price on Scherzer. We’ve yet to see one of the premium rental pitchers change hands, however — perhaps because other clubs want to wait until Scherzer is off the board before pushing their own rental starters.
While the prevailing wisdom at the moment is that one of the Giants, Padres or Dodgers are the favorites to land Scherzer, there are at least a couple other possibilities of note. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Red Sox ownership has pushed the front office to pursue a deal, for instance. The Sox have already been linked to Scherzer, but they’d be something of a surprise fit, given ownership’s longstanding reluctance to cross the luxury tax threshold. Scherzer would have to be viewed as a player worth making that exception, or the Red Sox would likely have to bolster their prospect package in order to convince the Nationals to pay down the remaining salary on Scherzer’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres are more focused on Minnesota’s Jose Berrios than they are on Scherzer at the moment.
Brusdar Graterol Drawing Trade Interest
Bullpen-needy teams are in contact with the Dodgers about reliever Brusdar Graterol, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Passan suggests Los Angeles could move Graterol in order to address deficiencies elsewhere on the roster.
It has been a difficult season for Graterol, who spent most of the first two months on the injured list and has been optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City on two occasions. The right-hander has only thrown seven innings across eight MLB appearances this year, allowing six runs (five earned) with five strikeouts and a pair of walks.
Graterol’s a bit of an outside-the-box trade candidate who could hold appeal across a broad range of teams. He tossed 23 1/3 innings of 3.09 ERA ball as part of the Dodgers’ World Series run last season. He doesn’t miss many bats, but Graterol’s hellacious power sinker has allowed him to rack up ground balls at a 58.5% clip in parts of three big league campaigns.
Contenders could see buying low on Graterol as a way to upgrade their bullpen immediately, even if that involves parting with a big leaguer at some other position in the process. That said, the 22-year-old is also controllable through 2025, so it’s possible a deadline “seller” explores a Graterol acquisition with an eye towards future seasons.
Latest On Max Scherzer
As of last night, there were at least eight clubs interested in Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who is open to waiving his no-trade rights but said to have a preference for a West Coast club that has the ability to keep him longer-term.
Scherzer figures to be one of the most talked-about trade candidates in recent memory, but his stay on the market may not go down to the wire like some other stars. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Nationals want to get a framework for a trade in place as quickly as possible, in order to leave enough time to work out the details surrounding Scherzer’s no-trade rights and any compensation he’d require to waive them. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that some involved in negotiations believe an agreement could come together by tonight.
While Scherzer has been connected to more than a quarter of the league, Rosenthal and Morosi both suggest that the three NL West contenders — the Padres, Dodgers and Giants — are the likeliest destinations at this time. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested something similar yesterday. Both SNY’s Andy Martino and The Athletic’s Jayson Stark, meanwhile, have indicated that Scherzer would not approve a trade to either New York club.
Any of the three NL West contenders make for a sensible landing spot. The Giants hold the best record in Major League Baseball and ought to be motivated to aggressively strengthen their club down the stretch. The Dodgers’ rotation strength has dwindled since the season began, and the Padres are without several key rotation options themselves at the moment.
Of the bunch, only the Giants could acquire Scherzer without incurring any luxury-tax penalization. Scherzer’s deferral-heavy contract comes with an annual luxury hit of just under $30MM, and the prorated remainder of that hit as of this writing would be $10.49MM. (It’d drop to $10.03MM after the deadline.) The Dodgers, already in the top tax bracket for year-one offenders, would pay a 62.5 percent tax on that $10.03MM overage. The Padres are barely over the threshold at the moment and exploring some ambitious ways to drop back below the barrier; at the moment, they’d pay a 20 percent overage penalty.
Scherzer, who turned 37 yesterday, has pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 35.1 percent strikeout rate (tying a career-high) and a 4.2 percent walk rate in 105 innings this year. He’s playing on a $35MM salary this year in the final season of a seven-year, $210MM contract, though the bulk of that 2021 salary is deferred to 2028. Schezer was scratched from his Saturday start against the Orioles due to a triceps issue, though the Nationals have indicated that an MRI came back clean. He’s listed as the probable starter for Thursday’s game against the Phillies. Of course, that recent health scare only muddies the water as teams try to put together a framework with the Nats.
At Least Eight Teams In The Mix For Max Scherzer
As many as eight clubs are in the mix for Nationals ace and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Astros and Mets are all interested, according to Stark, who adds that the Yankees also inquired but were told Scherzer isn’t likely to waive his no-trade rights for a move to New York. That meshes with recent reporting from SNY’s Andy Martino, who wrote earlier this afternoon that Scherzer wouldn’t approve a trade to the Mets (nor would the Nationals be keen on dealing their ace to the current division leaders).
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier in the day that Scherzer preferred a West Coast club, though MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the ostensible West Coast preference is more about Scherzer wanting to go to a team with a chance to win in 2021 and beyond. Scherzer prefers to go to “a team he could stay with” on a possible extension, per Heyman. Agent Scott Boras indicated as much earlier in the summer, although at the time Boras suggested an extension might be necessary in order for Scherzer to waive his no-trade protection at all. That no longer seems to be the case, but as evidenced by Scherzer’s unwillingness to go to a New York club, the no-trade rights can help him choose his eventual landing spot.
If the Nats are to ultimately trade Scherzer, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the team’s preference is to do so within the next 48 hours. Doing so would leave ample time to sort through the no-trade obstacles and any potential compensation for waiving those rights (e.g. alterations to deferrals, taxes, etc.).
That said, a trade taking place prior to Thursday’s game would put an acquiring team in a tough spot. Scherzer was scratched from his weekend start due to a triceps issue and is set to return to the mound Thursday. A recent MRI came back clean, and any team acquiring Scherzer would obviously have access to the results from that imaging and other testing. Still, a clean MRI may not inspire as much confidence as seeing Scherzer go out and actually perform. If interested clubs prefer to wait until Scherzer has taken the mound, there’d be fewer than 24 hours between the conclusion of Thursday’s start and Friday afternoon’s deadline.
Any trade involving Scherzer is going to be financially complicated, but looking at Stark’s list of interested parties, there are a few particularly complex scenarios. The Dodgers are already into the final luxury-tax bracket, meaning they’d pay a 62.5 percent overage penalty on any additional money added to the books. For Scherzer, whose remaining luxury hit clocks in at roughly $10.03MM post-deadline and $10.49MM as of this writing, that’d mean paying between $6.27MM and $6.56MM on top of the approximately $12.2MM he’s still owed in actual 2021 salary. (Luxury tax is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value, but Scherzer’s backloaded contract comes with a $35MM salary in 2021 — albeit with much of that sum deferred.)
The Padres are reportedly just above the luxury tax threshold, but are still considering moves that could take them back under that line. A Scherzer acquisition, however, would push them well above the mark. That’s also true of the Astros and the Red Sox, who are both within just a few million of the $210MM threshold. The Rays, of course, have an entirely different sort of financial obstacles to consider (namely, their perennially cellar-level payroll). The Jays and Giants, as teams with deep pockets and no real luxury concerns of which to speak, ostensibly represent the “cleanest” fits of the bunch.
That’s not to say that the Dodgers, Padres, Astros, Rays or Red Sox shouldn’t be considered legitimate contenders for Scherzer. (Although if Scherzer is hoping to stay with the club that acquires him, the low-payroll Rays are an admittedly tough fit.) Most clubs this summer have voiced some iteration of a “we’d exceed the threshold for the ‘right’ player” stance. It’s hard to imagine a player who fits that billing more than a bona fide ace and three-time Cy Young winner who has a 2.92 ERA in 49 1/3 postseason innings with the Nats since 2016. But with the Nats theoretically negotiating with a rapidly ticking clock, any complicated financial elements of a deal are magnified.
Latest On Tyler Anderson
TODAY: The Mets are one of the teams interested in Anderson, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). A trade might have to come together quickly, as Heyman writes that the Pirates would ideally like to move Anderson before his scheduled start tonight against the Brewers.
JULY 25: The Pirates are likely to trade starter Tyler Anderson before this week’s trade deadline passes, per the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That’s hardly surprising, as it’s quite literally been the plan all season, notes Jason Mackey of PGSportsNow (via Twitter).
Morosi does note that Anderson is particularly appealing to the Dodgers and Phillies, who like his manageable salary as they try to minimize potential tax bills. Of course, if Anderson’s salary makes him an asset to high-payroll teams, it’s surely an asset for low-payroll teams as well. Anderson is playing on a one-year, $2.5MM contract and headed for free agency after the season. In theory, he won’t cost much to acquire, but there’s still the matter of finding the right piece that fits the Pirates’ vision.
The 31-year-old, after all, is valuable largely because he’s eminently available. He has, in 560 career innings, offered up mostly the dull consistency of a back-end starter. For some teams right now, the Phillies among them, that’s tremendously valuable.
With 103 1/3 innings, Anderson has crossed the century mark for just the third time in his career. His 4.35 ERA/4.26 FIP would be his best numbers since his rookie season, but they’re also right in line with what he’s shown since leaving Coors Field. In these past two seasons with the Giants and Pirates, Anderson has logged 163 innings in 31 appearances (29 starts) with a 4.36 ERA/4.30 FIP, 33.9 percent groundball rate, 18.4 percent strikeout rate, and 7.2 percent walk rate. That’s 2.1 fWAR over roughly a full season of work.
Latest On Jose Berrios
The Twins are discussing Jose Berrios with multiple teams including the Padres and Dodgers, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network. According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are not one of those other clubs at this time.
Berrios, 27, figures to be wildly popular on the trade market since he’s under team control for 2022 as an arbitration eligible player. He ranks ninth in MLB with 121 2/3 innings, sporting a 3.48 ERA, 25.7 K%, and 6.5 BB%. Berrios appears to have little interest in giving the Twins a discount on an extension, so naturally the team is listening to potential trade offers. Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote this month, “Early indications are the Twins asked another team that inquired about Berríos for a pre-arb player and two top-100 prospects.” Speaking of top 100 prospects, Baseball America just updated their list.
In an earlier tweet, Morosi suggested the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies “are active in the starting pitching market now.” But it’s difficult to name any contender that couldn’t push aside their worst starting pitcher for Berrios.
AL Central Notes: Duffy, Dodgers, Ramirez, Twins
The Dodgers have interest in injured Royals southpaw Danny Duffy, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter). This completes the trio of NL West contenders looking at Duffy, since the Padres and Giants have also been linked to the veteran left-hander. San Francisco is known to be interested despite Duffy’s injury, and it can be assumed that the Dodgers are in the same position, considering that Duffy has been on the 10-day injured list for five days now.
Duffy is out of action with his second left flexor strain of the season, so he might not be available until at least early September, based on the timeline of his last IL visit. Since the NL West teams currently have a big lead on the rest of the National League for the two wild card positions, the Dodgers can be reasonably comfortable of reaching the postseason in one form or another, so Duffy could be saved as a late-season reinforcement. While it can certainly be argued that Los Angeles should spend its prospect capital on a healthy pitcher, the Royals’ asking price for Duffy probably isn’t very high, considering his injured status. Duffy controls his trade destiny thanks to 10-and-5 rights, and the California native might be willing to waive those rights to join a team in his home state. (If this is the case, the Angels and Athletics would also seem like hypothetical fits for a Duffy trade.)
More from the AL Central…
- It remains to be seen if the Indians will be buyers, sellers, or a bit of both at the trade deadline, but there don’t appear to be any plans to move Jose Ramirez. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that Cleveland isn’t having “active talks” about a Ramirez deal with any rival team, which perhaps isn’t surprising considering the big-picture ramifications of such a trade. Moving a star player with such an affordable contract would seemingly indicate a turn towards a rebuild for the Tribe, who haven’t given any indication they’re not planning to contend again in 2022. Unsurprisingly, “the asking price is extremely high” for Ramirez, Morosi writes.
- The Twins are considering all options as the trade deadline approaches, including the possibility of including two or more players together in a single trade. In an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM earlier today, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told Jon Morosi and company that such a package deal is “something we have talked about.” Possibilities abound for such trades, though since the Twins are reportedly not keen to move players controlled beyond 2021, however, I would think a package deal might be more suited as a way of generating a greater return for rental players. Someone like Andrelton Simmons or Michael Pineda alone might not bring back much in the way of prospects, but putting the two veterans into one deal might get a team to budge on a slightly higher-tier minor leaguer. Conversely, the Twins could also look into packaging a rental player with someone with more control (i.e. Byron Buxton or Taylor Rogers).