The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.
Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.
It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.
That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.
Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.
That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.
Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.
Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.
There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.
Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.
While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.
This appears to be something of a “change of scenery” deal on each end, as both pitchers are having poor results this year compared to their previous bodies of work. López, 30, had been a fairly mediocre starter for many years but thrived in a move to the bullpen with the Orioles last year. He tossed 48 1/3 innings with a 1.68 earned run average, striking out 27.6% of opponents while walking 8.7% and getting grounders on 60% of balls in play.
