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Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

(Poll link for app users)

Latest On Market For Madison Bumgarner

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We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.

The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.

All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.

Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).

Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).

As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.

The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.

Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.

Gio Gonzalez Nearing Rehab Assignment

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Brewers left-hander Gio Gonzalez, out since June 1 with a dead arm, is finally progressing toward a return. He’ll start a rehab assignment at the High-A level on Wednesday, Sophia Minnaert of Fox Sports Wisconsin reports.

Gonzalez threw a bullpen session of 40-plus pitches Saturday without incident – a notable step for someone who suffered a setback during a bullpen on June 26. The hope prior to then was that Gonzalez would come back before the All-Star break. It’s now unclear how long he’ll take to ramp up before rejoining the Brewers, but his return will be a timely one with the club fighting for a playoff spot and in need of starting help.

Despite the holes in their pitching staff, the reigning National League Central champion Brewers are 47-43, in possession of a wild-card spot and a half-game back of the Cubs in a wide-open division. The Brewers are in playoff position thanks in part to Gonzalez, who looked like a quality bargain pickup before going on the IL.

After signing a $2MM deal with the Brewers in late April, the former Athletic and National began the season with a 3.19 ERA/3.24 FIP, 7.55 K/9 against 2.61 BB/9, and a 45.5 percent groundball rate over 31 innings and six starts. There’s a case Gonzalez has been the Brewers’ second- or third-best starter this season on a per-inning basis, trailing the emergent Brandon Woodruff and perhaps Zach Davies.

Brewers Call Up Mauricio Dubon

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SUNDAY: Dubon’s officially up. Amazingly, Arcia dodged a significant injury and should be fine to return after the All-Star break, per Rosiak. Because Arcia’s not going on the IL, the Brewers optioned righty Burch Smith to make room for Dubon.

SATURDAY: The Brewers are set to call up shortstop prospect Mauricio Dubon, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets. Dubon, who’s already on the Brewers’ 40-man roster, will make his major league debut.

The Dubon call-up comes on the heels of a potentially serious injury for shortstop Orlando Arcia. The 24-year-old had to be carted off the field during the Brewers’ loss to the Pirates on Saturday after a collision with second baseman Keston Hiura. Arcia “was holding his left arm and shoulder” as he exited the field, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.

Dubon, also 24, suffered a major injury of his own – a torn left ACL – just a year ago. The righty-swinging Dubon has come back this season to slash .306/.343/.467 (99 wRC+) with 14 home runs and eight stolen bases in 357 plate appearances with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in San Antonio.

Dubon originally joined the Brewers in a December 2016 trade with the Red Sox that centered on reliever Tyler Thornburg and third baseman Travis Shaw. Although Dubon was only a 26th-round pick in 2013, he evolved into one of Boston’s top prospects before it dealt him. He’s among the Brewers’ best farmhands nowadays. MLB.com and FanGraphs each place Dubon fifth in Milwaukee’s system. He could become “a low-end” starting shortstop in the majors, Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs write.

Brewers Designate Deolis Guerra For Assignment

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The Brewers have designated righty Deolis Guerra for assignment, per a team release. Right-hander Burch Smith has been recalled in his place.

Guerra, a 30-year-old who once upon a time was a headliner in the 2008 Johan Santana trade that sent the left-handed ace from Minnesota to New York, has never quite found his footing in a 14-year professional career thus far. A 2012 move to the bullpen was precipitated by severe bat-missing issues, a malaise that transmuted into homer and command problems in relief stints with both the Pirates and Angels from 2015-17.

He has been sharp this year, however, with 10.45 K/9 against 2.18 walks per nine in 41 1/3 treacherous innings in the homer-happy PCL. Numbers like those will allow him to linger in the upper minors for as long as he chooses, though the far-below average fastball (per MLB standards) may keep him knocking on the big-league door for some time.

Smith, 29, is a former well-regarded Padres and Rays prospect who ran into a heavy wall with Kansas City last season. Injuries kept him out of both the 2015 and ’16 seasons, and the low-slot Smith hasn’t since been able to regain his long-ago form. In 13 starts for San Antonio this season, Smith has paired a strong strikeout rate (10.24 K/9) with sloppy command. He’ll likely be deployed in relief with Milwaukee, though the team’s current pitching mix needs help wherever it can get it.

Brewers Select Deolis Guerra

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The Brewers announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Deolis Guerra prior to today’s game, which fills the vacancy on their 40-man roster. Righty Aaron Wilkerson was optioned to Triple-A San Antonio to make room on the 25-man roster.

Offense in Triple-A is through the roof in 2019, but the 30-year-old Guerra nonetheless possesses a strong 2.61 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and a 39.3 percent ground-ball rate. The former Mets and Twins prospect was a key part to the Johan Santana blockbuster way back in 2008 (raise your hand if you expected to see Guerra and Carlos Gomez, the headliner in that deal, garner headlines on consecutive days in 2019).

While Guerra never made it to the bigs in either New York or Minnesota, he’s seen MLB action with both the Pirates and the Angels, tossing 95 1/3 inning with a 4.17 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. His most recent action came with the Halos back in 2017, and while he didn’t post impressive bottom-line numbers that season (4.68 ERA), he did show off a 14.9 percent swinging-strike rate. Guerra has 167 punchouts in his last 146 2/3 Triple-A innings, so he’ll add a swing-and-miss arm for manager Craig Counsell — at least in the short term.

Brewers Outright Hernan Perez

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2:17pm: Perez has accepted his assignment, president of baseball ops David Stearns tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter link).

2:03pm: The Brewers announced Wednesday that infielder/outfielder Hernan Perez cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week. He’s been sent outright to Triple-A San Antonio, though he does have enough big league service time to reject that assignment and become a free agent.

Perez, 28, has struggled to a .235/.277/.383 line through 160 trips to the plate in 2019 — his worst production since landing with the Brewers back in 2015. While he’s never been any sort of on-base threat, Perez did hit a combined .262/.294/.411 with 36 homers and 58 steals in a part-time role from 2016-18 (1222 plate appearances), demonstrating an interesting blend of power and speed. Pair that with his defensive versatility — he’s played every position but catcher in Milwaukee — and the Brewers are likely quite pleased to have the opportunity to keep him in the organization.

The Brewers are currently utilizing Tyler Saladino as their backup infielder, although Saladino himself comes with an even spottier offensive track record, so it’s possible that Perez will get another look later in the season.

Zack Wheeler Rumors: Yankees, Braves, Brewers

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Trades between the Yankees and Mets have been rare during the crosstown rivals’ histories. The clubs have made just 15 deals since 1966, in fact, but we might see No. 16 this summer. With the starter-needy Yankees pushing for a World Series and the Mets looking like non-contenders, the New York franchises could come together on a trade for soon-to-be free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler this month. The Yankees are already known to like Wheeler, and the Mets wouldn’t be averse to sending him to the Bronx, Andy Martino of SNY.tv says.

The Mets are more focused on getting the best offer for Wheeler than where they’d trade him. But the Yankees are sure to face plenty of competition for Wheeler if they do make an earnest attempt to pull him in before the July 31 deadline. Martino names Atlanta and Milwaukee as just a couple other teams with interest in the 29-year-old. The Brewers were “enamored” of Wheeler’s upside as recently as last offseason, per Marc Carig of The Athletic (subscription link).

The heat-throwing Wheeler put on a show for an array of scouts Tuesday when he handled, of all teams, the Yankees. Wheeler fanned eight over 6 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits and a walk. He’s still running an uninspiring 4.42 ERA through 114 frames this season, up significantly from last year’s 3.31. It hasn’t helped that Wheeler has pitched in front of a dreadful defense, though, and the rest of his output is far more promising than his simple run prevention numbers. Wheeler has struck out 9.71 batters per nine while walking 2.53, giving him an outstanding 3.71 K/BB ratio. He’s also inducing grounders at a 45.3 percent clip and infield flies 14 percent of the time – the latter of which ranks 13th among qualified starters.

Adding to Wheeler’s appeal, he’s on a $5.975MM salary that every contender should be able to afford. It appears he’ll join Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner as one of the top two rental starters available in July, barring a miraculous Mets turnaround. The Mets have won two in a row, though they’re still just 39-47 and six games out in a jam-packed National League playoff race. Assuming New York elects to sell, dealing Wheeler would give the team a chance to replenish its lackluster farm system to at least some degree. The Mets just may be able to do that at the Yankees’ expense.

Brewers Sign Drew Smyly

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The Brewers announced today that they have signed southpaw Drew Smyly to a minor-league deal. He had previously been designated for assignment and then released by the Rangers.

Smyly is due $7MM in total this year, but that cost will all be borne by the Texas organization except for any pro-rated portion of the league minimum that Smyly may command if he’s called up. It’s essentially a zero-risk roll of the dice for the Milwaukee outfit. The southpaw will jump into the club’s Triple-A rotation, per GM David Stearns (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, on Twitter).

The once-strong starter is still only thirty years of age — he just celebrated his birthday, in fact — but hasn’t turned in a healthy and effective campaign in quite some time. He was good in limited action in 2015, struggled through thirty starts in 2016, and then missed all of the ensuing two seasons.

Smyly was able to take the mound this year after a lengthy rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery. And he had his fastball back at his typical ~91mph level. But Smyly was having no success fooling big league hitters, who banged 19 home runs in his 51 1/3 innings. He carries an 8.42 ERA with a 52:34 K/BB ratio on the season.

Brewers, Pirates Discussed Felipe Vazquez In 2018

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The Brewers expressed interest in Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez last summer, though talks didn’t go anywhere, Robert Murray of The Athletic reports. The left-handed Vazquez would have teamed with Brewers southpaw Josh Hader and righty Jeremy Jeffress to form a nigh-unhittable relief trio on paper, perhaps one that could have pushed the club over the top in the National League. He remains a Pirate, though, and the Vazquez-less Brewers fell to the Dodgers in a seven-game NLCS last year.  Milwaukee may call its division rival again this year about Vazquez (if the Brewers haven’t already), but it’ll continue to be incredibly difficult for anyone to pry him out of Pittsburgh.

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