Brewers general manager Matt Arnold held a press conference today on the heels of the club being eliminated from the playoffs last week. Arguably the most notable thing he said was in relation to closer Devin Williams. “We have to stay open-minded,” Arnold said, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in this.”
Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.
Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.
Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.
The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.
Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.
Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.
Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.
Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.
The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.
A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.
The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.
Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.
Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.
Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.
Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.
