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Brewers Notes: Hiura, Yelich, Stearns

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The Brewers were bumped from the postseason earlier this week, losing their Division Series against the Braves. Milwaukee president of baseball operations David Stearns met with the media (including Will Sammon of the Athletic and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) this afternoon to review the 2021 campaign and discuss the club’s upcoming offseason.

Keston Hiura will undergo a minor surgery on his right elbow, Stearns said, although there’s no indication the issue could affect his readiness for Spring Training. Milwaukee’s Opening Day first baseman, Hiura struggled all season. He got off to a horrible start, striking out in 32 of his first 89 plate appearances en route to a .152/.247/.266 line through early May. The Brewers optioned Hiura to Triple-A Nashville at that point. Hiura hit well in the minors, but he still couldn’t find much success against big league pitching. In 108 MLB plate appearances from the time of his first demotion on, he continued to slump to a .181/.264/.330 mark.

At this point, the Brew Crew can’t enter 2022 counting on Hiura to assume an everyday role. Still, he’s a former top ten pick who’s not all that far removed from a huge .303/.368/.570 showing as a rookie in 2019. Milwaukee surely doesn’t want to give up on Hiura entirely, and Stearns floated the idea of getting him some work in the outfield next season. Hiura has only played first and second base as a pro (aside from one 3 1/3 inning stint in left field this year), but it’d be a bit easier for manager Craig Counsell to work him into the lineup if the 25-year-old proves capable of covering the grass on a regular basis.

Christian Yelich won’t have any issue getting everyday reps, but he’ll also be looking to recapture his 2019 level of performance. The former MVP’s numbers have hovered right around league average (.234/.360/.392) over the past couple seasons. It’s an alarming drop-off, surely not what Stearns and the front office had in mind when they inked Yelich to an extension over the 2019-20 offseason that paid him $188.5MM in new money.

Between Yelich’s prior accolades and the organization’s enormous financial commitment to him, it’s no surprise that Stearns says getting the 29-year-old back on track is a key focus this winter. Yelich’s strikeout, walk and hard contact rates are still all solid or better, but his power output has disappeared as his ground-ball percentage has spiked from 43.2% in 2019 to 54.8% this past season. Stearns candidly admitted the organization hasn’t yet diagnosed a root cause of Yelich’s downturn in performance, but he expressed optimism in the potential for a turnaround and noted that Yelich wasn’t being hampered by any health problems.

Stearns’ own status with the franchise has been something of a talking point in recent weeks. The Mets are reportedly interested in speaking with the Manhattan native as part of their search for a new president of baseball operations. Stearns landing in Flushing has never seemed especially likely, though, primarily because he’s under contract with the Brewers through the end of next season. Thus, Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio would need to grant the Mets permission to interview Stearns. Attanasio hasn’t definitely said whether he’d do so, although he rather coyly responded to the rumors last month (via Sports Illustrated) when he opined that Stearns is “a great executive. … He’s also under contract with us.”

For his part, Stearns mostly deflected attention away from his future, although he didn’t sound like someone anxious to leave Milwaukee. “I think I’ll shy away from any media or external speculation other than to say I’m happy here; my family is happy here. And we’ve got work to do here,” Stearns told reporters today when asked about the chances he makes the jump to the Big Apple.

Brewers Announce NLDS Roster; Brent Suter Out With Oblique Injury

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The Brewers announced the 26-man roster they’ll carry for an NLDS showdown against the Braves this morning. Left-hander Brent Suter at first appeared to be a surprising omission, but the Brewers announced that Suter is out for at least this series due to a “minor” right oblique strain. Rather than swap Suter out for another lefty, such as Hoby Milner or deadline acquisition Daniel Norris, they’ll instead go with three catchers. Here’s how the roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The loss of Suter is a notable one. While he’s far from the household name that teammate Josh Hader is, Suter has quietly been brilliant for the Brewers since his 2019 return from Tommy John surgery. In 123 1/3 innings since being reinstated from the injured list that season, Suter carries a 2.70 ERA with a 24.1 percent strikeout rate, an outstanding 5.9 percent walk rate and a similarly strong 52.2 percent grounder rate. He’s no stranger to working multiple innings, and he has no discernible platoon splits of which to speak. Since 2019, lefties have batted .227/.280/.393 against Suter, while righties have slashed .241/.288/.365. That the team specified the injury as “minor” in nature gives some hope that he could return for a potential NLCS or World Series run, but no timetable for his recovery has been formally announced.

Milwaukee surely had higher hopes for Norris when acquiring him from the Tigers just prior to the trade deadline. Looking past the 5.54 ERA he posted in Detroit this season, Norris had posted strong strikeout, ground-ball, home-run and swinging-strike rates prior to the swap. Every one of those rates trended in the wrong direction following his acquisition, however, and his walk rate jumped by nearly seven percent: from 9.6 to 16.5.

Jackie Bradley Jr.’s inclusion on the roster serves as a testament to his brilliant glovework, which could factor late into any close games for the Brew Crew. After hitting just .163/.236/.261 in his first season with Milwaukee, there was certainly a case to make different use of that roster spot, but Bradley still posted nine Defensive Runs Saved, six Outs Above Average and a 7.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 722 innings in center field.

Devin Williams Fractures Hand, May Return In World Series

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October 5: The Brewers announced Williams underwent successful hand surgery today (as reported by Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt). The star reliever is currently in a splint and will rehab in the Brewers’ Arizona facility. Provided rehab goes as expected and the Brewers advance past their NL competition it’s possible Williams will be an option for the team during the World Series.

September 29: Brewers reliever Devin Williams is going on the 10-day injured list with a right hand fracture, the team informed reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and Will Sammon of the Athletic). The injury is expected to require surgery and is likely to end his season, although Milwaukee isn’t completely ruling out the possibility he could return for the World Series if the club were to win the National League pennant.

It’s an incredible blow to the Brewers’ postseason plans, as few relievers in baseball have been better than Williams over the last two years. The right-hander broke into the majors late in 2019, but he logged few enough innings to retain rookie eligibility in 2020. Last season, Williams absurdly allowed just one earned run (four runs total) over 27 innings while striking out a laughable 53% of opposing hitters. That showing earned him the National League’s Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year awards.

It’d have never been reasonable to expect Williams to continue to dominate at quite that level again, but he’s posted another phenomenal season for the Brew Crew. Over 54 innings, he’s worked to a 2.50 ERA with a 38.5% strikeout rate that checks in seventh among the 249 relievers with 30+ frames. Williams had been expected to pair with Josh Hader to log the club’s highest-leverage postseason innings, but they’ll now have to navigate the playoff field (at least the first couple series) without one of their top bullpen weapons.

That’d be a crushing enough blow on its own, and the manner in which Williams got hurt only adds to the shock. He told reporters he suffered the injury after punching a wall on Sunday (video via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). He learned about its severity when he was unable to warm up before last night’s game. Williams’ dejection and disappointment in himself is obvious in that clip, and his potential season-ending absence was certainly similarly deflating news for the rest of the clubhouse.

The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central title, where they’ll meet up with the NL East winner (the Braves, in all likelihood) in the first round. In addition to Hader, manager Craig Counsell will have Hunter Strickland, Jake Cousins and Brent Suter as key end-of-game options. It’s also likely a productive member or two of the Brewers’ vaunted starting rotation (Adrian Houser, Brett Anderson and/or Eric Lauer) will work out of the pen as Milwaukee shortens the rotation to maximize the number of innings logged by Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. It’s still a very strong group of arms, but there’s no sugarcoating that losing Williams deals a significant blow that’ll force most of the rest of the staff up a peg in the pecking order.

To replace Williams on the active roster, Milwaukee selected veteran righty Colin Rea from Triple-A Nashville, designating utilityman Tim Lopes to clear a 40-man roster spot. Rea signed a minors deal last month and has performed well over seven starts. Through 35 2/3 frames with the Sounds, the 31-year-old has a 2.27 ERA with a solid 24.6% strikeout percentage and a minuscule 2.8% walk rate.

That earns Rea his first big league look of the season. The former Padres and Marlins hurler didn’t appear in the majors at all from 2017-19, but he made it back for a brief look with the Cubs last season. He tossed fourteen innings of nine-run ball with Chicago, striking out ten while issuing just a pair of walks.

Rea was in the organization by August 31, so he would be eligible for the Brewers’ postseason roster. Players in the system but not on the 40-man roster at the start of September can still be added to the playoff roster via petition to the Commissioner’s Office for teams with players unavailable due to injury. Considering Rea is coming up as a direct replacement for Williams, the Brewers should have no problem getting him onto the postseason roster if they’re impressed enough with his current form to want to do so.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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It took 162 games to decide things, but given all of the uncertainty heading into the final day of the regular season, it is perhaps an upset that a 163rd game (or even a 164th) wasn’t required.  However, the field for the 2021 postseason has now been decided.

The Giants outpaced the Dodgers in a stunning NL West pennant race.  San Francisco shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games, the most victories in the franchise’s 139 seasons.  As a reward, the Giants will get a few days to rest and prepare for the NL Division Series opener on Friday, while Los Angeles (with a whopping 106 wins) will now have to sweat out a single-game eliminator against the hottest team in the sport.

The Cardinals roared into the NL wild card game thanks to a 35-16 record over their last 51 games, including a franchise-record 17-game winning streak.  The Dodgers will host the Cards on Wednesday, and while the two clubs are postseason regulars, this will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 2014.

After a season of tributes to the late Henry Aaron, perhaps it was destiny that Milwaukee and Atlanta would do battle in the postseason for the very first time.  The 95-67 Brewers will host the 88-73 Braves in Game One of their NLDS meeting, which begins on Friday.

The Brewers caught fire in midseason and ran away with the NL Central, topping St. Louis by five games even despite the Cards’ late surge.  Despite a few shaky moments along the way, the Braves nonetheless overcame the loss of injured superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to capture their fourth straight NL East title.

“Champa Bay” has already collected two Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl within the last two years, and the 100-62 Rays will look to add a World Series title to the local trophy case.  The Rays will start their journey in the AL Division Series on Thursday, and they’ll be facing off against a familiar AL East opponent, no matter who wins the AL wild card game.

That opponent will be decided on Tuesday, as the Yankees and Red Sox will add another chapter to their rivalry by meeting in the wild card game for the first time.  Both New York and Boston won today to clinch their postseason berths, finishing with identical 92-70 records (and holding off the 91-win Blue Jays and the 90-win Mariners).  Because the Sox won the season series by a 10-9 margin, Tuesday’s game will take place at Fenway Park.

The Astros and White Sox will square off in the other ALDS matchups, meeting for the first time in the postseason since Chicago defeated Houston in the 2005 World Series.  The 95-67 Astros have the homefield advantage over the 93-69 White Sox, and this series will mark the first-ever postseason meeting between veteran managers Dusty Baker and Tony La Russa.

Now that we know which 10 teams will be continuing into October, the question remains….who do you think will be the last team standing at the end of October? (Link to poll for app users)

Who will win the 2021 World Series?
Giants 18.31% (6,375 votes)
Dodgers 16.69% (5,811 votes)
Rays 13.92% (4,847 votes)
Cardinals 10.28% (3,581 votes)
Braves 9.63% (3,354 votes)
White Sox 9.17% (3,195 votes)
Brewers 7.00% (2,439 votes)
Astros 5.79% (2,016 votes)
Yankees 5.25% (1,827 votes)
Red Sox 3.96% (1,379 votes)
Total Votes: 34,824

Mets To Contact Theo Epstein; Plan To Ask Permission About Billy Beane, David Stearns

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The Mets’ search for a new president of baseball operations will lead to a chat with Theo Epstein, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Mets are planning to get in touch with Epstein “soon.”  Athletics executive VP Billy Beane and Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns are also on the Mets’ wishlist, as Heyman notes that New York intends to ask the A’s and Brewers for permission to speak with the two executives once Oakland’s season is over, and once Milwaukee’s postseason run is complete.

This isn’t the first time that these three names have been linked to the Mets’ search, and it remains to be seen how serious any of the trio are as candidates — Heyman tweeted just yesterday that Epstein and Stearns were “seen as unlikely gets.”  The pursuits of Beane and Stearns could be ended quickly, of course, if their current teams simply denied the Mets permission for a meeting.  While teams generally allow employees to interview for higher positions with other teams, Beane and Stearns are already atop their respective clubs’ decision-making pyramid.

As of Wednesday, New York hadn’t yet spoken to any candidates, team president Sandy Alderson told The Athletic’s Tim Britton (Twitter thread) and other reporters.  This could make Epstein the first name on the Mets’ list overall, and it would make sense that the team would check in with an unaffiliated potential candidate before tackling the thornier issue of permission from other clubs.

Alderson also noted the interesting detail that the Mets will make a decision on the fate of manager Luis Rojas and the current coaching staff soon after the season is over, even prior to the hiring of a new PoBO.  “I would hope those decisions are made with a new leadership potentially in mind, to make sure they have as much flexibility as possible,” Alderson said, which wouldn’t seem to bode well for Rojas’ chances of being retained.  The wait should be longer in deciding on the future of acting GM Zack Scott, whose next court date related to a DWI charge isn’t until October 7.  Alderson said the Mets will decide on Scott after there has been some resolution in his legal situation.

Brewers Activate Rowdy Tellez From 10-Day Injured List

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The Brewers announced a trio of roster moves, including the activation of first baseman Rowdy Tellez from the 10-day injured list.  First baseman Keston Hiura was optioned to Triple-A to make space for Tellez on the active roster.  Milwaukee also outrighted utilityman Tim Lopes to Triple-A, four days after Lopes was designated for assignment.

Tellez returns after missing three weeks due to a right patella strain.  The slugger and the Brewers each hope that the time off has corrected what had been a nagging knee problem for Tellez, and that he is now ready to roll for the Brew Crew’s postseason stretch.

While the Brewers’ May acquisition of Willy Adames has been rightfully lauded as a turning point in the season, the club’s trade for Tellez in early July shouldn’t be overlooked as another key move.  Tellez got off to a brutal start with the Blue Jays this year, prompting Toronto to clear its first base/DH logjam and upgrade its struggling bullpen by moving Tellez to Milwaukee for Trevor Richards.  Tellez responded to the change of scenery, hitting .270/.329/.474 with seven home runs during his first 167 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform.

The Tellez deal was necessary in part because Hiura struggled so badly, and he will likely finish the season with a .168/.256/.301 slash line over 197 PA at the big league level in 2021.  After a huge rookie campaign in 2019, Hiura didn’t hit well in 2020 before cratering this season, leaving the former top prospect as something of an unknown quantity heading into next year.  Hiura is still only 25 years old and has continued to hit well at the Triple-A level, at least, but it remains to be seen if the Brewers still view him as a potential future cornerstone.

Braves, Brewers Made Pirates “Big-Time Offers” For Bryan Reynolds

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You can add the Braves and Brewers to the list of teams who asked the Pirates about Bryan Reynolds prior to the trade deadline, as The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel hears from a source that Pittsburgh received “big-time offers” from the two clubs.  Atlanta and Milwaukee join the Marlins, Indians, and Astros as teams known to have at least checked in on Reynolds’ availability, though it sounds as if the Braves and Brewers went a step further with their overtures.

Of course, Reynolds wasn’t dealt anywhere, as the Pirates value the outfielder as a cornerstone of their future plans.  Biertempfel’s report comes within the context of a larger piece about which current Pittsburgh players are most likely to be on the roster come Opening Day, and Reynolds is seen as someone who is “not going anywhere.”  Reynolds’ price tag will start rising this offseason in his first of four (as a Super Two player) arbitration-eligible years, the Bucs have him controlled through the 2025 season, and the team is surely hoping to be back in contention while Reynolds is still producing at a high level.

After a big 2019 rookie season and a sophomore slump in 2020, Reynolds has enjoyed a strong season as the Pirates’ everyday center fielder.  The 26-year-old has hit .293/.382/.505 with 24 home runs over 628 plate appearances, resulting in a 136 wRC+ and 139 OPS+.  While Reynolds’ hard-hit numbers are nothing special, his speed has allowed him to turn even moderate contact into base hits.  As a center fielder, Reynolds’ glovework is either elite (+10 Outs Above Average, one of the higher totals of any player at any position) or slightly below average (-3.2 UZR/150, -2 Defensive Runs Saved) depending on your metric of choice, though the eye test would certainly seem to lean closer to OAA’s analysis.

There’s plenty to like about Reynolds as a contributor both now and in future seasons, which is why it was no surprise that so many teams were inquiring about trades.  The Braves and Brewers stand out as particularly intriguing, considering that Milwaukee has already won the NL Central and Atlanta has a 2.5-game lead in the NL East with six games remaining, so the specter of a Reynolds trade will loom as an interesting “what-if” should either team fall short in October.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is no stranger to big deadline moves, and while a Reynolds trade would’ve counted as a blockbuster, Atlanta was hardly lacking in activity.  With Ronald Acuna Jr. gone for the season, Anthopoulos reinvented his outfield by adding Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall.  That quartet has all hit well, helping carry the Braves from a 52-55 mark on August 1 to the brink of a division title.  It is worth wondering if Atlanta’s inquiries about Reynolds led to the notable trade that the Braves did make with the Pirates, landing Richard Rodriguez for Bryse Wilson and Ricky DeVito.

The Brewers had a relatively quieter July than the Braves in terms of sheer volume of moves, though the Brew Crew had the benefit of a much wider division lead, and the team certainly picked up some solid offensive contributors in Eduardo Escobar and Rowdy Tellez.  Installing Reynolds in center field ahead of the Lorenzo Cain/Jackie Bradley Jr./Tyrone Taylor combination would’ve certainly been a huge upgrade for Milwaukee’s lineup, and perhaps solidified the Brewers as World Series favorites.

If the Pirates had been moved to deal Reynolds, it would’ve surely taken an enormous trade package from any team, and it is quite possible Pittsburgh might’ve demanded a premium to send Reynolds within the NL Central.  While the Pirates and Brewers combined on a pair of minor trades earlier this season, swapping minor league depth pieces is a far different matter than sending a star player to a division rival.

Injury Notes: Cousins, Andrus, Loaisiga, Taillon, Cisnero

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The Brewers placed righty Jake Cousins on the 10-day injured list due to a right biceps strain, as right-hander Miguel Sanchez was called up from Triple-A to take Cousins’ spot on the active roster.  Speaking with The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Brewers GM Matt Arnold described Cousins’ injury as “nothing major,” adding that “We just want to be careful.  It’s that time of year where we want to make sure he’s available in a playoff capacity.”

Considering that Cousins didn’t even make his MLB debut until June 21, his status as a potential postseason weapon is a sign of how well he has performed during his rookie season.  Cousins has a 2.70 ERA over 30 relief innings, along with an eye-popping 35.2% strikeout rate — not far off his minor league numbers since joining the Milwaukee organization in 2019.  While Cousins’ control hasn’t been nearly as impressive (15.2% walk rate), opponents haven’t been able to take much advantage, as Cousins has been carving up batters with his wipeout slider.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

  • While scoring the game-winning run in the Athletics’ 2-1 walkoff win over the Astros today, Elvis Andrus suffered a left ankle injury and had to be helped off the field.  A’s manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other reporters that Andrus is getting x-rays after “feeling a pop” in his ankle.  More will be known after Andrus has been tested, but it certainly looks like the 33-year-old’s season could be over, as the shortstop could be facing a serious injury.  It has been a tough year overall for Andrus, as he has hit only .243/.294/.320 over 541 plate appearances in his first season in Oakland.
  • The Yankees could have Jonathan Loaisiga and Jameson Taillon back from the injured list during the club’s upcoming series against the Blue Jays, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including ESPN’s Marly Rivera and Newsday’s Erik Boland).  Loaisiga was sidelined on September 5 with a strained right rotator cuff, but the reliever has already thrown one bullpen session and will throw another soon, Boone said.  Taillon has missed close to the game amount of time with an ankle injury, though he has been on a minor league rehab assignment and threw a bullpen today.
  • Jose Cisnero’s IL stint has lasted beyond the minimum 10 days, and Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) that while Cisnero hasn’t yet been shut down, a return this season is “improbable.”  Cisnero has been hampered by swelling around the right elbow laceration that first sent him to the injured list back on September 14.  If this is it for the right-hander in 2021, Cisnero will finish with a 3.65 ERA over 61 2/3 innings, marking his third consecutive year of solid work out of Detroit’s bullpen.

Carlos Gomez Officially Announces Retirement

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Former major league outfielder Carlos Gómez officially announced his retirement this afternoon in a ceremony at Milwaukee’s American Family Field (video via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The announcement finalizes the end of a 13-year major league career.

Of course, there hasn’t been much doubt that Gómez’s playing days had already concluded. The 35-year-old last played in the majors in 2019, and he hasn’t played professionally since wrapping up a stint with the Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League between 2019-20. Reports out of the Dominican Republic in January 2020 indicated Gómez’s playing days were likely coming to an end, but he hadn’t publicly finalized that decision until today.

Gómez ceremoniously hung up his spikes as a Brewer, with whom he had the best run of his career. Acquired from the Twins over the 2009-10 offseason, the electric center fielder spent the next four and a half seasons with the Brew Crew. At his peak, Gómez was one of the sport’s top power-speed threats. Between 2013 and 2014, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.347/.491 line with 47 home runs. He chipped in 74 stolen bases over those two seasons while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Gómez earned down-ballot MVP support in both of those campaigns, and few players could match his well-rounded skillset. Over that two-year stretch, Gómez ranked seventh among all position players in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, trailing only Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, teammate Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson.

Milwaukee traded Gómez to the Astros at the 2015 deadline for then-prospects Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser. It proved an opportune time for the Brewers to add an influx of young talent still helping the team immensely today, as Gómez’s productivity was never quite the same from that point forward. As he entered his 30’s, Gómez bounced around the league with a few clubs. He ended his playing days with the Mets, ironically the team that initially signed him as a 16-year-old back in 2002.

Gómez appeared in the majors with six different clubs over the course of his career, although he’ll be best known for his peak in Milwaukee. He appeared in 1461 MLB games and hit .252/.313/.411 with 145 home runs, 236 doubles and 41 triples. Gómez stole 268 bases, scored 675 runs and drove in 546. He appeared in two All-Star Games and won a Gold Glove during his aforementioned star-level peak. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his career at around 25 WAR. MLBTR congratulates Gómez on a very fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

Avisail Garcia Reaches Mutual Option Threshold, Can Opt For Free Agency

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Avisail Garcia made three plate appearances in last night’s 10-2 Brewers loss to the Cardinals, giving the Milwaukee outfielder 492 PA for the season.  This is the exact number needed to turn the Brewers’ $12MM club option on Garcia for the 2022 campaign into a mutual option, and thus Garcia can now decide whether or not he wishes to remain with the Brewers or enter this winter’s free agent market.

Garcia initially came to Milwaukee via free agency in the 2019-20 offseason, as Garcia received a guaranteed $20MM over the 2019-20 seasons.  This broke down as a $500K signing bonus, $17.5MM in salary, and a $2MM buyout of that 2022 club option.  The club option turned into a mutual option if Garcia achieved either of two criteria — either 550 PA in 2021, or 1050 total PA over the 2020 and 2021 seasons.  Contractual thresholds in the shortened 2020 season were prorated, so Garcia’s 207 PA in 2020 were the equivalent of 558 PA in a normal season.  Now that the option has vested, Garcia’s buyout adjusts to $1.5MM (also based on plate appearances) should he decline his end of the mutual option.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco outlined Garcia’s situation back on August 26, and not much has changed for the outfielder in the last four weeks.  Garcia has missed a few games due to back and hamstring soreness and hit a modest .212/.255/.500 over his last 55 plate appearances.  That said, Garcia has also homered in two of three games since a four-game absence due to back spasms, so it is possible he has turned the corner on his injury problems.

Another little hot streak over the Brewers’ final 10 games or (perhaps more importantly) during the postseason would only enhance what has already been a very solid year for the 30-year-old.  Garcia has hit .270/.337/.506 with a career-best 29 homers, which translates to a 121 wRC+ and 122 OPS+.  He has been making a lot of hard contact, and as per Statcast, Garcia might even be a little shortchanged in the production department — his .374 xwOBA is higher than his .356 wOBA.  Beyond the offensive side, Garcia has also been an excellent right fielder according to the UZR/150 (13.6) and Defensive Runs Saved (9) metrics, though he is rated as merely average by Outs Above Average.

Since mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides, it’s safe to assume Garcia will look to exercise his free agent rights unless he and the Brewers can work out an extension beforehand.  Between a big arbitration class and a lot of money already invested in the outfield, Milwaukee might prefer to seek out the proverbial next Avisail Garcia (i.e. another outfielder who could be signed for a mid-tier salary) rather than spend more on a player who hasn’t been very consistent over his 10 MLB seasons.

Should Garcia indeed decline the mutual option, the Brewers could also issue him a qualifying offer, so the team could obtain a compensatory draft pick if Garcia declined the QO and signed elsewhere.  Though the one-year QO will be in the neighborhood of $20MM, Garcia would most likely decline that one-year payday in search of a longer-term offer on the open market.

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