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Twins To Exercise Options On Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco

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The Twins are exercising their club options on outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Jorge Polanco, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic (X link). Kepler will make $10MM, while Polanco is set for a $10.5MM salary.

Both moves were expected. Kepler started slowly but found his form in the second half. He finished the season with a .260/.332/.484 line with 24 home runs across 491 plate appearances. That’s well above-average offense, his best season since a 36-homer showing in 2019. He’s also a strong defender in right field, making the $10MM price point a bargain. He’ll be a free agent for the first time in his career next offseason.

Polanco was limited to 80 games by injury but turned in a characteristically solid season. The switch-hitting infielder ran a .255/.335/.454 line through 343 trips to the plate. Primarily a second baseman, Polanco moved to third base later in the year in deference to hot-hitting rookie Edouard Julien. The Twins have Royce Lewis at the hot corner, leaving Polanco in a multi-positional role.

Despite the infield depth, there was never much question about Minnesota exercising the option. A $10.5MM salary is strong value for a player who would have been this year’s top free agent middle infielder had the Twins cut him loose. His contract also contains a $12.5MM team option for 2025. That comes with a $750K buyout that is now guaranteed.

The moves add an expected $20.5MM to Minnesota’s player payroll, which now sits around $88MM. That’s well below this year’s Opening Day estimate of approximately $154MM. The Twins have a fair bit of spending room and could certainly find trade interest in Kepler and/or Polanco if they were to entertain dealing from their position player depth.

Nelson Cruz To Retire

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Nelson Cruz revealed on the Adam Jones Podcast that he is planning to retire from playing after an upcoming stint in the Dominican Winter League.

Nelson Cruz | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY SportsCruz, now 43, was something of a late bloomer but still went on to have an incredibly long and productive career in the big leagues. He didn’t fully establish himself as an everyday big league player until 2009. That was technically his “age-28 season”, but he turned 29 on July 1, just after the standard June 30 cutoff for such distinctions. He had some limited looks in the big leagues with the Brewers and Rangers from 2005 to 2008 but that 2009 season saw him bust out with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases for Texas.

He would follow that with 22 and 29 home runs in the next two years, helping the Rangers reach the World Series in each campaign, though they ultimate lost on both occasions. He continued serving as a potent slugger for a time but that was put on pause when he was connected to the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drugs scandal, receiving a 50-game suspension in August of 2013.

He reached free agency after that campaign and the Rangers gave him a qualifying offer of over $14MM, which he turned down. The draft pick forfeiture tied to that QO and his PED situation led to him lingering on the open market until late February, eventually signing with the Orioles for one year and $8MM, well below the QO he turned down.

He had a monster year for the O’s in 2014, launching 40 home runs and helping that club reach the American League Championship Series. The O’s then gave him a $15.3MM qualifying offer, as players were still allowed to receive multiple QOs at that time. The limit of one per career did not come into place until the 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement. Cruz turned the QO down again but fared far better in this trip to free agency, landing a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners.

Though he had been an outfielder earlier in his career, he slid more into a full-time designated hitter role over the course of that deal with Seattle. The club likely didn’t mind as he continued mashing, with 163 home runs in that four-year span. He then continued to produce in a similar fashion after joining the Twins, launching 41 more homers in 2019 then 16 in the shortened 2020 season.

He was still crushing baseballs through the first half of 2021, but his production slid after a midseason trade from the Twins to the Rays. He signed one-year deals with the Nationals and Padres for the past two seasons but his offensive production slid to below par. Since he was into his 40s and limited to DH duties only, it became tougher to roster him and the Padres released him in July.

Cruz retires having played in 2,055 regular season games, hitting 464 home runs in that time. His finishes with a batting line of .274/.343/.513, which translates into a wRC+ of 128, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter. He made seven All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers, a Roberto Clemente Award and various other honors. He represented the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic on four separate occasions, winning the 2013 tournament. His Baseball Reference page indicates he earned over $140MM in his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Cruz for his many accomplishments and wish him the best of luck for whatever awaits him in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Heaney, Twins

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The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey provided an update on a handful of Red Sox prospects today, headlined by top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer. A consensus top-15 prospect in the sport headed into the 2023 campaign, Mayer hit well enough in 35 games with Boston’s High-A affiliate last season to earn a promotion to Double-A, though his move to the upper levels of the minors was met with difficulties. Over 190 trips to the plate at the level, Mayer slashed just .189/.254/.355 with a 25.8% strikeout rate before ultimately seeing his 2023 campaign come to an end due to a nagging shoulder injury at the beginning of August.

Mayer has been been doing rehab work since the season ended, per McCaffrey, and is expected to have a normal offseason this winter. It’s surely a significant relief for the Red Sox, as Mayer could be on the radar to reach the majors sometime next year given the club’s lack of certainty in the middle infield. Boston figures to use Trevor Story as their everyday shortstop next year, though he slashed just .203/.250/.316 in 43 games this year after returning from surgery midseason. Alongside Story, the club sports a handful of options including Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela as potential contributors up the middle.

Also discussed in McCaffrey’s piece is right-hander Noah Song, who was returned to the Red Sox by the Phillies back in August after the Phillies selected Song in the Rule 5 draft last offseason. While McCaffrey notes that the club may decide to protect Song from the Rule 5 draft this year to avoid a similar situation, she suggests it’s also possible that Song’s inability to stick on the roster in Philadelphia in 2023 could leave him unlikely to do so in 2024, even if selected for a second time. As a member of the naval reserves, Song has certain obligations to the US military that have impacted his ability to play baseball professionally in the past. That being said, McCaffrey relays that Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham believes Song’s military duties can be fulfilled during the offseason, allowing him to have a normal 2024 campaign.

More from the American League…

  • Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney discussed his decision to sign in Texas last winter recently with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. Heaney acknowledged that he discussed potential deals with several teams, including the Red Sox, adding that he spoke with the team remotely and met with a member of the club’s medical staff during negotiations last offseason. Ultimately, Heaney notes that his decision to sign in Texas was influenced by the Oklahoma City native wanting to play for his hometown team. Heaney can opt out of the final year and $13MM on his deal with the Rangers this offseason. If he decides to do so on the heels of a season where he posted a 4.15 ERA in 147 1/3 innings of work it’s at least possible that the Red Sox, who figure to lose lefty James Paxton and righty Corey Kluber to free agency later this month, could be a suitor for his services once again.
  • Long-time Twins TV broadcaster Dick Bremer is stepping away from the booth after 40 years as the club’s play-by-play announcer, per an announcement by the club yesterday. Bremer, 67, will remain as a member of the Twins organization as a special assistant to the front office. Per the club’s press release, the Twins are currently “assessing potential broadcast options as well as a talent lineup for 2024 and beyond” with announcements expected later this offseason. Minnesota, of course, is among the teams impacted by Diamond Sports Group filing for bankruptcy back in March. The split with Diamond has left the club’s broadcast situation up in the air headed into the 2024 campaign.

MLBTR Podcast: Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
  • Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
  • Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers Expected To Share Time At Catcher In 2024

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  • Despite not being part of the club’s starting lineup during their postseason run, veteran catcher Christian Vazquez figures to remain a significant part of the Twins in 2024, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. Per Nightengale, the team plans to offer roughly equal playing time to Vazquez and fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers behind the plate next year. Vazquez just wrapped up the first season of his three-year, $30MM deal with the club and suffered the worst offensive season of his career with a .223/.280/.318 slash line across 355 plate appearances. By contrast, Jeffers had a breakout season, slashing .276/.369/.490 in 335 trips to the plate. While Jeffers is clearly the stronger offensive option, Vazquez is regarded as an elite defensive catcher and Jeffers could feasibly see additional playing time at DH next year as a way to keep his bat in the lineup on days Vazquez is behind the plate.

Alex Kirilloff Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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  • The Twins announced today (as relayed by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff avoided a potentially more invasive procedure on his right shoulder as Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed a cleanup procedure of the bursal sac in Kirilloff’s right shoulder today. The Twins had previously revealed that Kirilloff would require offseason shoulder surgery, though it was unclear how severe the procedure would be at the time of the announcement. Ultimately, today’s update appears to be positive news for Minnesota, as Kirilloff will reportedly focus on strengthening his shoulder and improving its range of motion “in the coming weeks” before progressing to his normal offseason routine. Kirilloff acted as the club’s primary first baseman when healthy this season, slashing a solid .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate across 88 games.

Astros Claim Oliver Ortega From Twins

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The Astros have claimed right-hander Oliver Ortega off waivers from the Twins, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Ortega is on the 60-day injured list.

Ortega, 27, pitched for the Angels in 2021 and 2022 but came to the Twins last offseason via a waiver claim. Between the two clubs, he has tossed 58 major league innings over 45 appearances, posting an earned run average of 4.03 in that time.

The Twins placed Ortega on the injured list in late August due to a lumbar strain and transferred him to the 60-day injured list a few days later. There’s no 60-day injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning players have to be added back onto the 40-man roster. The Twins put Ortega on waivers instead but the Astros have swooped in to make a claim.

The Astros are likely intrigued by Ortega’s strong work in Triple-A this year, as he had an ERA of 1.82 in 34 2/3 innings at that level. He struck out 32.6% of batters faced, walked just 7.4% and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.1% rate. Ortega has yet to reach arbitration and has one option season remaining, allowing him to serve as a cheap depth arm with roster flexibility for the Astros.

Thad Levine No Longer A Candidate In Red Sox Front Office Search

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As the Red Sox continue their search for a new head of baseball operations, Twins general manager Thad Levine is no longer in the running, according to Jeremy Nygaard of Twins Daily.  Levine was told yesterday by the Sox that he was no longer a candidate, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports (via X).

The news comes as the Red Sox have apparently taken a next step in their selection process, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that club has moved onto a second round of interviews.  Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow is believed to have advanced to this second round, though it isn’t known how many other candidates might also be getting a second sitdown with team brass.  As per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings, “information is spotty” on the situation, but Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero and Breslow could both still be candidates.  Four other candidates known to have sat down for an initial interview remain in the process for now — Red Sox assistant GM Michael Groopman, Red Sox VP of player development/scouting Paul Toboni, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, and former Phillies/Giants manager Gabe Kapler.

The 51-year-old Levine has been Minnesota’s GM since the 2016-17 offseason, working as the top lieutenant to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey (who turned down an interview offer from the Red Sox).  Levine has over two decades’ worth of experience working in the front offices of the Twins, Rangers, Rockies, and Dodgers, though he hasn’t yet gotten the chance to call the shots in a baseball operations department.  There have been a couple of close calls, however, as the Rockies and Phillies considered Levine for their most recent GM openings were respectively filled by Bill Schmidt and Dave Dombrowski.

Falvey, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Sam Fuld, Brandon Gomes, and Mike Hazen are among the prominent executives who have declined to interview for the Red Sox job, yet it appears as though the club is satisfied enough with its current list of candidates to progress into what might be a final stage of the hiring process.  Breslow may or may not be the frontrunner, as reports have indicated that the Sox definitely see him as a candidate for some kind of front office role, if perhaps a GM working under a president of baseball operations moreso than a PBO himself.

Twins Outright Jordan Luplow

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The Twins announced to reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that outfielder Jordan Luplow elected free agency after being outrighted off the 40-man roster. Outfielder Andrew Stevenson and right-hander José De León, who were outrighted last week, also elected free agency. The removal of Luplow opens up another spot on Minnesota’s 40-man roster in advance of the offseason.

Luplow, 30, has bounced around the league quite a bit in his career, with teams often trying to deploy him as a lefty-mashing right-handed role player. He has shown enough flashes of promise in this role that he has been employed in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tampa and Arizona in previous seasons. His best stretch was with Cleveland in 2019 when he hit .276/.372/.551 in 261 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 141, most of that damage being done against southpaws.

He was cut by the Diamondbacks at the end of 2022 and then signed with Atlanta on a one-year deal with a $1.4MM guarantee. But he was optioned to the minors to start the year and was designated for assignment in early April, never suiting up for Atlanta at the big league level. Waivers claims would take him to the Blue Jays and Twins as the season progressed and he eventually got into 39 games in the most recent season. He hit a paltry .154/.267/.154 against righties but his .235/.350/.412 line with the platoon advantage amounted to a wRC+ of 110.

Despite that solid work in his specific role, Luplow didn’t crack the club’s playoff roster. He could have been retained for 2024 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $1.6MM, but it seems the Twins weren’t willing to keep him around at that price point. Since Luplow was outrighted, that means he passed through waivers unclaimed.

Players with more than three years of service time or a previous career outright can reject a further outright assignment in favor of free agency. Luplow qualifies on both accounts and will now head to the open market. He will likely garner interest from clubs this winter, likely for a similar depth role to the one he filled this year.

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