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Latest On Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

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While the Twins are facing an uncertain payroll situation headed into the offseason, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that won’t stop the club from picking up options on second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, noting both options are “expected” to be picked up around the league. That being said, Nightengale also notes that both players figure to be in the center of trade discussions this winter if Minnesota looks to utilize their position player depth to acquire more pitching.

That’s a familiar situation to Kepler in particular, who found his name in the rumor mill both last offseason and again at the trade deadline. After posting below-average offensive numbers in both 2021 and 2022, Kepler bounced back in a big way this season with a .260/.332/.484 slash line in 130 games, adding a plus bat to his reputation as a strong defender in the outfield. A free agent after the 2024 campaign if his option is picked up, Kepler would be an attractive one-year addition for outfield-needy teams that the Twins could afford to part with due to the presence of young outfielders like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.

Polanco, on the other hand, has team options for both 2024 and 2025 that make him a more significant player to part with. The switch-hitting infielder has been a model of consistency when on the field the past few years, with a wRC+ between 118 and 124 in every full season since 2019. That being said, he’s been plagued by injuries the past two seasons, appearing in just 80 contests for the Twins in 2023 and 104 in 2022.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a poll of MLBTR readers regarding whether or not the club should deal Polanco, with 56% of respondents voting that he should be dealt. Effective as Polanco has been, that sentiment in understandable given the club’s cluttered infield mix that features Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien and up-and-coming prospects like Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. Nightengale adds that the Twins could use Polanco in a super utility, multi-positional role next season if he’s retained for 2024. While Polanco profiles best as a second baseman, he played 15 games at third base this year and spent time at shortstop early in his career as well.

Twins Outright Andrew Stevenson, José De León

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The Twins have outrighted right-hander José De León and outfielder Andrew Stevenson, per the transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates both players were removed from the 40-man roster after passing through waivers unclaimed.

Stevenson, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Twins in March and was selected to the roster in September. He had a strong performance in Triple-A, hitting .317/.394/.522 while stealing 44 bases. He got into 25 games at the big league level down the stretch but hit just .189/.250/.216 in those, though he did add another four steals.

Any of the 30 other clubs could have added Stevenson via a waiver claim but he’s out of options, meaning he would need an active roster spot going forward as well. It seems none of them were willing to do so and he passed through waivers unclaimed. Since he has been previously outrighted in his career, he has the right to reject this assignment and elect free agency. His strong season at the Triple-A level will surely be enough to get him another minor league deal this winter.

De León, 31, was once considered one of the best prospects in the league but has been repeatedly setback by injuries. He tossed 17 1/3 innings for the Twins this year but required Tommy John surgery in June. It was the second such procedure of his career, the first coming back in 2018. He spent the latter months of the 2023 campaign on the 60-day injured list and will likely miss most of the 2024 season as well.

The righty would have been eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter but the Twins have removed him from the roster instead and the 29 other clubs passed on the chance to grab him, which is understandable given that he won’t be able to provide much in the upcoming season. Since he has over three years of major league service time, he has the right to elect free agency. Based on his prospect pedigree, he should be able to land a minor league somewhere, perhaps of the two-year variety since his 2024 is up in the air right now.

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Jorge Polanco?

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Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.

Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.

The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.

Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.

There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.

At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.

Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.

The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.

Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.

The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.

Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.

What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins finally snapped their ignominious playoff drought, breaking an 18-game postseason losing streak by sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. After being eliminated by the defending champions in the second round, they turn their attention to an offseason that could see some turnover among what was arguably the sport’s best rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $10.5MM option on 2B Jorge Polanco ($1MM buyout); deal also includes ’25 team option
  • Club holds $10MM option on RF Max Kepler ($1MM buyout)

2024 financial commitments (assuming both options exercised): $88.025MM
Total future commitments (assuming both options exercised): $358.775MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salaries projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Farmer, Luplow, Alcalá, De León

Free Agents

After disappointing seasons in 2021-22, the Twins returned to October. Minnesota’s 87 wins were enough to handily take the AL Central in another down year. After knocking out the Blue Jays in the first round, Minnesota dropped a four-game Division Series to the Astros. Their efforts to return to the playoffs begin in a couple weeks, with the starting rotation the primary focus.

After years of maligned rotations and quick hooks for starters, Minnesota turned its rotation into an overpowering strength. Only three teams relied on their rotation for more innings. The Twins trailed only the Padres in starting pitcher ERA, while the staff narrowly topped the Rays’ for the highest strikeout rate in the majors.

The team MVP may have been Sonny Gray. The veteran righty pitched to a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. He made his third All-Star Game and could secure a top three Cy Young finish for the second time. It was an ideal time for arguably the best season of a very good career, as the 10-year veteran is a few weeks from his first trip to free agency.

Minnesota will make Gray a qualifying offer, which he’ll certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a draft choice if he signs elsewhere. Gray has spoken positively of the organization, while president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said they’ll remain in contact throughout the offseason. While Minnesota retaining Gray can’t be entirely ruled out, the organization may be reluctant to meet an asking price that should easily top the $63MM secured by Chris Bassitt and could push towards nine figures.

Gray will be joined in free agency by two other Minnesota starters. Dallas Keuchel heads back to the market and likely won’t be retained after posting a 5.97 ERA across 10 outings. More impactful is the potential departure of Kenta Maeda. The 35-year-old has had a strong if volatile few seasons since being acquired from the Dodgers in the Mookie Betts three-team blockbuster. He was the Cy Young runner-up after twirling 11 starts of 2.70 ERA ball during the shortened season. He followed up with an ERA approaching 5.00 in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery towards year’s end. Rehabbing that injury kept him out for all of 2022.

Maeda returned to post a 4.23 ERA through 104 1/3 innings this past season. That’s inflated by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees on April 26, which directly preceded a two-month injured list stay due to a triceps strain. From the time of his return on June 23, Maeda worked to a 3.36 ERA with an excellent 29% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .219/.279/.401 batting line in 88 1/3 frames.

As with Gray, Maeda is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. Unlike his rotation mate, Maeda might happily take a one-year deal in the $20.5MM range if the Twins put it on the table. Whether to make him the QO is one of the biggest decisions for Falvey and his front office at the start of the offseason. A full season of Maeda’s second-half production would be well worth that price. Whether he can keep that up for another year is a matter of debate, as he’ll be 36 in April and has a checkered injury history.

The Twins are a mid-market franchise. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they ran a payroll in the $154MM range this year — the #17 figure in the majors. Pending a pair of obvious option decisions (more on those in a bit), they’ll begin the offseason with roughly $88MM in guaranteed contracts for 2024. The arbitration class is projected to tack on around $17MM, although a non-tender of infielder Kyle Farmer would subtract nearly $7MM from that sum.

That should afford the front office some freedom for a lofty one-year salary if they feel Maeda is capable of another strong year. Falvey noted last week that the collapse of Diamond Sports Group — the parent corporation of the Bally Sports TV networks that had carried Twins’ in-market broadcasts — adds some uncertainty to the offseason budget. There’s nothing to suggest the organization is about to dramatically slash payroll, however, and the club did get a boost in the form of four home playoff games this fall.

Whether Gray or Maeda return, three-fifths of the rotation is settled. Pablo López had another excellent year in his first season after being acquired in the Luis Arraez trade. Joe Ryan has a secure hold on a rotation spot despite a rough second half. Righty Bailey Ober had a very strong year to solidify himself as a mid-rotation arm.

Chris Paddack figures to hold the fourth spot. Acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade just before Opening Day 2022, Paddack made five starts before undergoing the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He was out into September, returning for five relief appearances between the regular season’s final week and the playoffs. Minnesota signed him through 2025 last spring, buying out his first would-be free agent year while giving the righty some stability halfway through his rehab.

The top option beyond that group seems to be right-hander Louie Varland. The 25-year-old (26 in December) has been more effective out of the bullpen than the rotation in his brief MLB career. He had a strong season in the rotation for Triple-A St. Paul, posting a 3.97 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents in 81 2/3 innings. Varland could get a crack at a back-end job out of camp or begin the season in the major league relief corps with the potential to move to the rotation if necessary.

If each of Gray and Maeda walk, Minnesota could go into the middle tiers of free agency for a veteran starter. Players like Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and old friend Kyle Gibson are among the options. Signing a veteran to eat some innings could keep the likes of Varland, Brent Headrick and Simeon Woods Richardson in relief and/or increase the possibility of trading from that group for bullpen or position player depth.

Minnesota’s strong rotation performance is made all the more impressive by the absence of Tyler Mahle. The Twins received just five starts this year from the right-hander, one of their top deadline acquisitions in 2022. That trade turned out to be a major misstep, as both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand look like long-term infielders for the Reds. Mahle battled shoulder issues in 2022 and suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery this May.

That takes him out of consideration for the qualifying offer as he nears free agency for the first time. Mahle should find a two-year deal that gives him up-front security while he rehabs in the short term. A signing team would potentially welcome Mahle back late next season while getting a mid-rotation starter at a below-market price in 2025. It remains to be seen if the Twins would have interest in such an arrangement, which could check in between $15MM and $25MM total.

Minnesota’s bullpen wasn’t as good as the rotation, although it held up well enough. Flame-throwing Jhoan Durán is an elite option in the ninth. Brock Stewart went from unheralded minor league signee to high-leverage weapon. Griffin Jax had a rocky second half but solid peripherals and a decent 3.86 ERA overall. Veteran Caleb Thielbar and rookie Kody Funderburk make for a promising pair of left-handed options.

The Twins could add one more arm in the middle to late innings. Emilio Pagán rebounded from a horrible first season in Minnesota to post a 2.99 ERA while leading the relief corps with 69 1/3 innings. He is headed to free agency, so re-signing Pagán or bringing in another arm to take on that workload should be of interest.

Minnesota’s slate of impending free agents on the position player side is fairly modest. The group is headlined by Michael A. Taylor, who hit 21 home runs while playing customarily strong center field defense following an offseason trade with the Royals. While Taylor’s offensive upside is capped by a poor strikeout and walk profile, the power and glove have made him a low-end regular for the better part of a decade. He should find a multi-year deal this winter.

Taylor’s initial acquisition came as a surprise, since a good portion of Byron Buxton’s value is in his ability to play an elite center field. Buxton battled right knee issues all season and couldn’t play defense, though, spending the entire year as a designated hitter. He recently underwent arthroscopic surgery that’ll hopefully allow him to get back on the field in 2024. Given his litany of injuries generally and problems with the knee in particular, Buxton may not be an everyday option in center field at this point.

How comfortable the Twins are with the former Gold Glove winner’s health will play a big role in how they approach the outfield this offseason. Exercising a $10MM option to retain Max Kepler is an obvious call after an excellent second half. The German-born outfielder could return to a regular right field role while offering cover for Buxton in center if Taylor walks. If the Twins aren’t comfortable with Buxton or Kepler assuming regular center field work, retaining Taylor or bringing in someone like Harrison Bader makes sense.

Even if/when they let Joey Gallo depart in free agency, Minnesota will have their typical abundance of left-handed hitting outfielders. The likes of Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon (along with Kepler himself) were the subject of trade speculation both last offseason and at the deadline. Aside from Kepler, Wallner is the only one of the group who has improved his trade value over the past few months.

Kirilloff, who has moved increasingly to first base over the corner outfield, continues to battle injury issues. He spent time on the IL with a right shoulder strain. Continued pain eventually forced him off the playoff roster and will require labrum surgery next week. Kirilloff hit well when healthy — .270/.348/.445 in 88 games — so it’d be a surprise to see the Twins move him while his value is at a low ebb.

Wallner, meanwhile, has settled in nicely as a power bat who can rotate through the corner outfield and DH. That’s the role the organization had envisioned for Larnach, a former first-round draftee who hasn’t hit consistently over parts of three big league seasons. He has performed well despite elevated strikeout tallies in Triple-A and could have appeal to a non-contender that can afford to give him a full season of reps in left field. Gordon, meanwhile, looked like a quality bat-first utility option in 2022 but missed most of this past season with a broken leg.

There’s a similar depth of talent on the infield. The club holds a $10.5MM option on Jorge Polanco, another easy call to exercise. The switch-hitter put together a .255/.335/.454 showing in 80 games and has been an above-average hitter in five of the past six seasons. He can split his time between second and third base. Even if the Twins felt they had enough infield talent to make Polanco expendable, there’d be surplus value on the option. Exercising that provision and trading him is more plausible than declining the option entirely, although the likeliest outcome is simply that they keep him for 2024.

Polanco would split time with a pair of youngsters on the infield. Edouard Julien had an impressive rookie season offensively. He might be better suited for DH or first base than consistent run in the middle infield, but he’ll be in the lineup somewhere.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis seized the third base job with a monster second half, which he carried into the playoffs. Lewis was the Twins’ best player down the stretch and looks like a potential franchise player after returning from a second ACL tear. With five seasons of club control, there’s no urgency for Minnesota to talk extension. Lewis looks like the player the Twins expected when they drafted him six years ago, so they could at least gauge his asking price on a potential early-career deal — as they signed with Polanco and Kepler back in 2019.

Carlos Correa will be back at shortstop. The first season of his $200MM deal didn’t go as planned. Correa had a below-average .230/.312/.399 showing in the worst full year of his career. The two-time All-Star played through plantar fasciitis in his left foot and seemed inhibited for most of the season. They’ll hope an offseason of rest gets him back to his typical level of production.

The combination of Lewis’ return to health and Julien’s emergence could lead the Twins to subtract an infielder. Opening Day third baseman José Miranda has plummeted down the depth chart, although it’s a suboptimal time to trade him coming off season-ending shoulder surgery. Farmer and Willi Castro are veteran utility options who are into their arbitration years.

Farmer has the loftier projected salary ($6.6MM against $3.2MM) and played less of a role down the stretch. Assuming the Twins retain Castro, non-tendering or trading Farmer for a minimal return to clear payroll room makes sense. Perhaps they could reallocate that money to Donovan Solano, who hit .282/.369/.391 in 450 plate appearances. He’s headed back to free agency and likely earned a raise over this past season’s $2MM salary. Headed into his age-36 season, he’s likely still looking at one-year offers — whether from the Twins or elsewhere.

There’s little suspense behind the plate. Ryan Jeffers is one of the game’s better catchers. He’ll take the majority of playing time, with Christian Vázquez on hand as a quality #2 option.

Despite the potential loss of this year’s top starter, the Twins are well positioned going into 2024. They won 87 games without much of a contribution from Buxton or Correa and a little more than a third of a season out of Lewis. Even if the starting pitching takes a step back, a lineup that ranked 10th in run scoring this year could push closer to top five with better health from its stars. Whatever they do this winter, they should enter next season as the favorites to repeat in an AL Central that may again be the sport’s least talented division.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Twins-centric chat on 10-17-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Trevor May Announces Retirement

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Right-handed reliever Trevor May announced his retirement from professional baseball on his Twitch channel earlier today. His full comments can be found here. The 34-year-old spent the 2023 campaign with the Athletics, pitching to a 3.28 ERA with a 4.71 FIP in 49 games.

“I have a thousand things that I want to do, a million things… everything that I do outside of the game has just lit me up, and I really enjoy doing it,” May said during his announcement, “I love talking pitching, I love talking about the game, I love teaching people about the game… this is not the end of my relationship with the game of baseball, I just want to go out on my own terms.”

Drafted by the Phillies in the fourth round of the 2008 draft, May made his big league debut as a starting pitcher with the Twins in 2014. His time in the rotation did not go well, as he posted a 5.85 ERA across 26 career stars, almost exclusively concentrated in his first two seasons with Minnesota. After converting to the bullpen in July of 2015, May saw his results improve significantly, as he posted a 3.15 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 34 1/3 innings for the remainder of the season.

That revelation late in the 2014 season led May to convert to the bullpen full-time from 2016 onward, and May went on to be a solid relief option for the Twins over the next five seasons. Though he missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, May posted a 3.76 ERA and 3.63 FIP in 155 2/3 innings of work while striking out 32.7% of batters faced from 2016 until 2020, his final year in Minnesota. The most impressive of those seasons was May’s 2019 campaign during which he posted a sterling 2.94 ERA, 55% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a solid 3.73 FIP.

Upon departing the Twins, May signed a two-year deal with the Mets. His first campaign with the club went quite well, as he posted a 3.59 and 3.74 FIP in 62 2/3 innings of work with the club as one of the primary set-up men for closer Edwin Diaz. Unfortunately, 2022 saw May struggle with injuries, as a stress reaction in his humerus sidelined him for most of the season. Ultimately, May departed New York following the 2022 campaign having thrown 87 2/3 innings of 4.00 ERA (100 ERA+) ball with a 3.78 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate.

That led May to the A’s, where he received his first opportunity to act as a club’s primary closer, though he had already picked up 12 saves over his years in Minnesota and Queens. After a difficult start to the season, May spent a month on the injured list due to issues pertaining to anxiety. Upon returning just before Memorial Day, May finished the season in dominant fashion with a 1.99 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 40 1/3 innings of work, though his full-season strikeout (19.5%) and walk (14.1%) rates did not reflect his excellent results. Despite the shaky peripherals, May took to the closer’s role with aplomb, going 21-for-22 in save opportunities throughout the remainder of the season.

Altogether, May posted a 4.24 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 450 1/3 innings of work across nine major league seasons. He finished 102 games while picking up 33 saves and punched out 520 batters in just 358 career games. We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate May on a fine career, and wish him well in all of his post-playing endeavors.

MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason.  Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.

Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history.  It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures.  Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.

“That’s a reality of our offseason.  It’s not just for us.  It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said.  “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate.  It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue.  That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody.  That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt.  Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.

As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.

Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned.  I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”

Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities.  Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.

Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract.  In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.

“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said.  The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.

Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp.  Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working.  With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.

Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton’s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure.  If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign.  If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.

Twins Retaining Coaching Staff In 2024

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  • Following an 87-win season that saw the club capture the AL Central crown and win their first postseason series since 2002, the Twins are bringing back their entire coaching staff under manager Rocco Baldelli, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. While Nightengale notes Minnesota’s MLB-worst 26.6% strikeout rate this year, with Baldelli arguing that the club’s high walk rates and power output in 2023 made up for the whiffs. “You want baserunners, and you want balls hit on the barrel,” he said, “That’s what we want, those two things, above anything else.” Baldelli also noted that the offense would naturally improve next year with healthy seasons from star hitters Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, each of whom dealt with injuries throughout the 2023 campaign.

Byron Buxton Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery; Alex Kirilloff To Undergo Labrum Surgery

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Now that the Twins’ season is over, surgery is in the cards for two prominent Minnesota players.  Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Byron Buxton under an arthroscopic right knee surgery today, and that Alex Kirilloff will undergo a procedure to fix his torn right labrum on October 24.

This is the second straight year that Buxton will have undergone an arthroscopic procedure on his troublesome right knee, though Falvey noted “this one wasn’t something that existed a year ago in terms of the evaluation and where things were.  This is one that developed more related to the patellar tendinitis that he was dealing with this year, and a potential path to help alleviate this.  In some cases, I’m sure this plica issue wouldn’t necessarily be surgically removed, but I think because he’s dealt with persistent symptoms, that’s a path.”

Buxton’s long injury history is well-documented, as is the fact that the former Gold Glover was entirely limited to DH duty in 2023 due to lingering discomfort in his right knee.  The experiment wasn’t too successful, as Buxton hit a modest .207/.294/.438 over 347 plate appearances in 85 games, and he didn’t play again in the regular season after August 1 due to a hamstring strain.  While rehabbing that hamstring injury, Buxton played seven innings of one minor league game in center field, but that seemed to again re-aggravate his knee issues.  He didn’t make it back to action at all until Game 4 of the ALDS, when Minnesota inserted Buxton onto the roster as an injury replacement for Kirilloff — Buxton had one at-bat as a pinch-hitter, popping out to first base in his only appearance during the Twins’ playoff run.

Unfortunately for Buxton, it doesn’t seem like this latest surgery will entirely correct what seems to be a chronic knee issue.  Falvey described today’s procedure as “hopefully…a step that gets us in a direction towards making sure it’s less of a problem going forward.  He’ll have to manage it.  We know that part.  But ultimately, hopefully we can manage it a little bit better going forward.”

In terms of timeline, Buxton will be able to start physical therapy within a few weeks’ time, and Falvey said the All-Star should be ready for the start of Spring Training.  If all goes well, Buxton should be able to return to center field in at least a part-time capacity in 2024, though naturally things are still very much up in the air given how Buxton’s knee (to say nothing of several other injuries) have plagued him throughout his career.  As a result, the center field position will remain a question mark for the Twins, since Michael A. Taylor is slated for free agency until Minnesota can work out an extension before the market fully opens five days after the end of the World Series.

Kirilloff is also no stranger to the surgical suite, after undergoing wrist procedures in each of the last two seasons.  Kirilloff hurt his right shoulder back in June while diving for a ball, and attempted to play through the pain before finally going onto the injured list for what ended up being around a six-week absence.

“I think if he had got through the first rehab and there was no soreness, and he got through the end of the year in an OK spot, it might not be a surgical procedure,” Falvey said, though unfortunately Kirilloff’s shoulder acted up against during the ALDS to force the situation.  Falvey noted that a recovery timeline won’t be known until the surgery actually happens, though Kirilloff expressed optimism yesterday when speaking with the media that it would be a relatively simple recovery.  Kirilloff throws with his left arm and not his right, so that should already cut back on the rehab required.

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