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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026

By | at October 6, 2025 11:59pm CDT

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, our agency database and our GM tracker.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (16)

Athletics (5)

Blue Jays (7)

Braves (9)

Brewers (7)

Cardinals (9)

Cubs (4)

Diamondbacks (11)

Dodgers (9)

Giants (5)

Guardians (8)

Marlins (7)

Mariners (10)

Mets (9)

Nationals (9)

Orioles (14)

Padres (7)

Phillies (9)

Pirates (9)

Rangers (9)

Rays (17)

Red Sox (9)

Reds (14)

Rockies (7)

Royals (16)

Tigers (15)

Twins (10)

White Sox (3)

Yankees (14)

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Arbitration Projection Model MLBTR Originals Newsstand

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: First Base

By | at October 6, 2025 6:48pm CDT

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher

The Top Guys

Alonso is signed through 2026 but he has an opt-out and has already said that he will use it, so he’ll be back on the open market for a second year in a row. That’s the outcome he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were hoping for. Last winter, he couldn’t find a satisfactory long-term commitment, so he pivoted to the short-term, opt-out path. The hope with that strategy as that a better platform year and a lack of qualifying offer would lead to a more robust market.

The lack of QO is already assured, as a player can only receive one in his career. Alonso also held up his end of the bargain by having a better walk year. His home run total went from 34 to 38. His batting average climbed from .240 to .272 and his on-base percentage from .329 to .347. His strikeout rate dropped as his batted ball data at Statcast improved. That led to a wRC+ jump from 121 to 141. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.6 wins above replacement this year, almost double last year’s 2.1 tally.

That improvement should help him in free agency but it’s still unknown if a long-term contract will be out there for him. In the past seven years, Freddie Freeman is the only free agent first baseman to get a deal longer than three seasons. There have been some long extensions, including for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Olson, but those players were still in their 20s. Alonso’s defense has never been strong and has been especially poor in the last two years. Now that he’s about to turn 31 in December, teams may be wary about how he will age into his mid-30s.

Concerns aside, Alonso will be one of the best bats available. The Mets seemed genuinely willing to let him depart last winter, so the teams outside of Queens should have a legitimate shot at getting him.

Naylor doesn’t quite have the offensive ceiling as Alonso but he’s pretty solidly above average at the plate. He hit 20 home runs this year, his fourth straight season of getting that number to at least 17. He doesn’t walk a ton but doesn’t strike out either. His 13.7% strikeout rate this year was barely half of the 22.2% league average. His .295/.353/.462 line translated to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter overall. That makes four straight seasons for Naylor with a wRC+ between 118 and 128.

Like most lefties, he’s better against right-handed pitching, but his splits aren’t extreme. His wRC+ against southpaws has been between 104 and 126 in each of the past three seasons, perfectly acceptable production.

He also has other intriguing qualities. The reviews on his glovework are mixed but not awful. He has 12 Outs Above Average at first base in his career. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -5 overall but that includes a -6 grade in 2024 which looks like an outlier. He’s been close to par in every other season of his career.

He’s not a burner on the basepaths, with Statcast crediting him with second percentile sprint speed, but he has shown a knack for stealing bases regardless. He swiped six to ten bags in the three prior seasons coming into 2025. This year, he cranked that way up to 30, including a shocking 19 steals after being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

On top of his skills, Naylor’s market should be helped by his relative youth and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer as a player traded midseason. As mentioned in the Alonso section, big league teams haven’t given many long deals to free agent first basemen recently, but Naylor’s reliability and relative youth could help him buck that trend.

A few years ago, O’Hearn looked like a lost cause with the Royals. However, he’s now coming off a strong three-year run as an above-average regular, mostly with the Orioles but also with the Padres after a deadline trade.

He hit 17 home runs this year and slashed .281/.366/.437 for a 127 wRC+. Going back to the start of 2023, he has a .277/.343/.445 line and 121 wRC+. Like Naylor, he doesn’t have Alonso’s huge offensive upside but he’s been a consistently strong contributor. Similar to Naylor, he’s a lefty without strong platoon concerns. O’Hearn had a 108 wRC+ against southpaws in 2023. That dipped to 74 last year but he brought it up to 135 this year. Overall, he has a .261/.326/.442 slash and a 116 wRC+ against lefties over the past three years.

O’Hearn’s glovework seems acceptable as well. He has four OAA at first base in his career. His -12 DRS total isn’t pretty but most of that came earlier in his career. He was credited with 4 DRS here in 2025. He can also play a corner outfield spot in a pinch.

Due to his late breakout, O’Hearn is older than both Alonso and Naylor. That will limit his market to shorter deals but he should be helped by a lack of a QO. Since he was traded midseason, he’s ineligible to receive one.

Everyday Players

The book on Arráez is well known at this point. He hardly ever walks but he’s also almost impossible to strike out. There’s not a ton of power but he’s the best contact hitter in the league. His 3.1% strikeout rate this year was easily the best in the majors among qualified hitters. Jacob Wilson came a distant second with a 7.5% rate.

However, Arráez’s overall production has been trending down lately. In 2022 and 2023, he had a combined .335/.384/.445 batting line and 131 wRC+. He had a .347 batting average on balls in play but that actually wasn’t too high for him personally. His swing seems perfectly designed to drop singles in between the infield and the outfield, so he has regularly had BABIPs in the .320 to .370 range, even though league average is usually around .290.

Over the past two years, he’s dropped down to a combined .303/.337/.392 line and 107 wRC+. The cause of that could be debated. He was playing through a torn thumb ligament last year and only hit four home runs. He’s never been a huge power guy but he’s usually good for eight to ten long balls a year. This year, this thumb has presumably healed and he hit eight homers, but his BABIP dropped to .289. That’s probably not all luck, as his average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate have all dropped in recent seasons.

He’s not a burner on the basepaths and isn’t especially well regarded on defense. He does have 2 DRS at first in his career but his -14 OAA mark is dreadful. His best trait is the ability to put the bat on the ball. He’s still doing that but with lesser results over the past two years. Put it all together and it’s one of the tougher markets to predict, but some team will find a lineup spot for him.

Bell is one of the most hot-and-cold bats in the majors, but he always seems to find his way to a solid season in the end. He signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the rebuilding Nationals coming into 2025. His first half was rough but he finished strong. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 line and 109 wRC+ over 533 plate appearances.

It’s been a long time since he was an All-Star, but Bell has never been on the injured list for more than a few days. He has appeared in at least 140 games in every full season going back to 2018. He hasn’t been a flashy player for a few years now but has still been solid. In the past three seasons, he hit between 19 and 22 home runs with respectable strikeout and walk rates. His wRC+ finished between 101 and 109 in all three of those campaigns.

His defense isn’t great and he hasn’t stolen a base since 2018. But for clubs who want a plug-and-play first baseman/designated hitter who should be in the lineup and contributing from time to time, Bell will be there and won’t be expensive.

Hoskins had a strong run with the Phillies as one of the most consistent power hitters in the league. However, his recent career has been more tumultuous. He suffered a torn ACL during spring training in 2023 and missed that entire season. He became a free agent and signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers, with an opt-out chance halfway through.

Both Hoskins and the Brewers were likely hoping for him to rebound after his lost year and then return to free agency. It hasn’t played out that way. His 2024 started strong, but he faded later in the year and finished with a .214/.303/.419 line and 101 wRC+. After that tepid year, he decided not to opt out and returned to the Brewers for 2025. He was a bit better this year on a rate basis, with a .237/.332/.416 line and 109 wRC+.

Unfortunately, a thumb sprain put him on the IL in July. While he was out, Andrew Vaughn took his job and ran with it. Hoskins was reinstated from the IL with about three weeks left in the season but hardly played, with Vaughn at first base and Christian Yelich in the DH spot most days. Hoskins was not included on Milwaukee’s NLDS roster. He’ll head into free agency without a lot of juice since his recent seasons haven’t been great, but he’s still been an above-average hitter on the whole. His deal has a mutual option for 2026 but it’s been more than a decade since a mutual option was picked up by both sides.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

Flores battled knee troubles throughout 2024 and put up awful numbers. He bounced back somewhat in 2025, with production close to league average, though he didn’t get a ton of playing time in the second half as San Francisco’s acquisition of Rafael Devers squeezed Flores into a short-side platoon role with Dominic Smith. A right-handed hitter, Flores has been better against lefties in his career but had reverse splits this year. He finished the season with a .241/.307/.379 line and 95 wRC+.

France had a strong run from 2020 to 2023 but he’s now had two straight years of subpar offense. He signed a one-year deal with the Twins coming into 2025 and got flipped to the Blue Jays as part of the Louis Varland deadline deal. France finished the regular season with a .257/.320/.360 line and 92 wRC+. He finished the season on the IL due to an oblique injury and was left off Toronto’s ALDS roster.

The Yankees signed Goldschmidt to a one-year, $12.5MM deal in the offseason. He got out to a hot start but quickly ran out of gas. He had a .338/.394/.495 line and 148 wRC+ at the end of May but then slashed .226/.277/.333 for a 69 wRC+ the rest of the way. As he struggled, he got bumped into the short side of a platoon, with Ben Rice starting against most righties and Goldschmidt mostly facing lefties. Goldy had a 74 wRC+ against righties this year but a 169 wRC+ against lefties. Based on his track record, he could still get an everyday job somewhere. But considering his age and widening platoon splits, he might fit best as a veteran mentor and lefty masher/bench bat.

Santana has defied the aging curve by remaining a solid player into his late 30s, but 2025 wasn’t his best year. He slashed .219/.308/.325 for a wRC+ of 82. The Guardians released him in late August. He latched on with the Cubs but didn’t play much. Santana consented to an optional assignment late in the year and wasn’t on the club’s playoff roster. He’s still a great defender and the plate discipline is still good, so he could garner interest even as a 40-year-old coming off a rough year at the plate.

Smith spent the first few months of the season with the Yankees on a minor league deal. He opted out of that pact in the summer and signed with the Giants. He finished his season strong with a .284/.333/.417 line and 111 wRC+ in 63 games with San Francisco. Almost all of that production came against righties. The Giants only let him face southpaws 27 times and he had a .200/.259/.280 line in those matchups.

Solano has been a pretty solid big league hitter going back to 2019 but is coming off a down year. He was released by the Mariners in September and briefly latched on with the Rangers. Between those two clubs, he hit .247/.291/.337 for an 82 wRC+. He is capable of playing other positions but only got very brief looks at second and third base this year.

Tellez also split his time between the Mariners and Rangers in 2025. He hit a combined .228/.276/.443 for a 101 wRC+. He finished with a bit of momentum, as he slashed .259/.315/.457 with the Rangers down the stretch for a 115 wRC+ with that club. Still, it’s been two straight years with poor plate discipline and overall production around league average.

Turner has been staying away from Father Time throughout his late 30s but seems to finally have been caught. He signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Cubs but hit .219/.288/.314 for a 71 wRC+ this season. He is on the Cubs’ playoff roster but hasn’t played much. His deal has a mutual option for 2026, but that won’t be picked up.

Wade had a strong run with the Giants from 2021 to 2024 but just had the worst season of his career. He slashed .167/.271/.254 in 242 plate appearances in 2025. He was designated for assignment by the Giants in June and landed with the Angels, but the latter club released him in early August. He didn’t sign anywhere else in the final two months of the season.

Options

Perez is primarily a catcher but has been spending more time at first base in recent years. It’s a fairly moot point for the free agent market, as Kansas City isn’t going to let its captain go. He is a franchise legend and he can be kept around for 2026 via a $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, making it a net $11.5MM decision. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo has already essentially said Perez will be back in next year, so it seems the Royals will either pick up the option or work out a new extension.

Photo courtesy of Steven Bigig, Imagn Images

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2025-26 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Catcher

By | at October 4, 2025 4:00pm CDT

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position. We’ll start things off with catchers. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Starting Catchers

J.T. Realmuto (35)

Now in his mid-30s, Realmuto is no longer the all-around superstar he was at his peak. Still, he remains a perfectly solid starting backstop who is as reliable in the lineup as any in baseball. Realmuto led the majors with 132 starts and 1151 1/3 innings behind the plate. He’d also logged the heaviest workload of any catcher in 2022-23, and only a five-week absence for a knee sprain kept him from doing the same in 2024.

Realmuto is still an exceptional athlete for the position. He’s an elite catch-and-throw defender, leading the league with an average pop time of 1.86 seconds on throws to second base. He cut down almost 30% of attempted basestealers at a time when the league average is around 22%. Statcast has increasingly soured on his pitch framing and blocking metrics, but the former might not be quite as valued a skillset with the forthcoming strike zone challenge system.

The righty-hitting Realmuto put up a .257/.315/.384 slash across 550 trips to the plate. He hit 26 doubles, one triple, and 12 home runs. It’s technically his first below-average offensive season since his 2015 rookie year. It’s nevertheless solid production, and he took a .266/.321/.403 line into September before slumping in the final month.

Realmuto has a good shot at a two-year deal as he enters his age-35 season. He’s now in year seven in Philly. Extending that arrangement makes the most sense. If that doesn’t come to pass, he could fit on the Angels, Padres or Rays. The Nationals arguably have the biggest need at the position of any team, but his age might not align with a Washington club that has yet to pull out of the rebuild.

Potential Regulars/Timeshare Options

Victor Caratini (32)

Caratini has been a high-end backup for most of his career. While he has never gotten to 400 plate appearances or 100 starts in a season, he’s a switch-hitter with serviceable career numbers from both sides of the plate. Caratini hit .263/.329/.406 in 660 plate appearances while splitting time with Yainer Diaz in Houston over the last two seasons. He’s a capable receiving catcher and adept at blocking balls in the dirt. Caratini’s biggest weakness is a below-average arm that makes him vulnerable in the running game. Opponents were successful on 57 of 64 stolen base attempts (an 89% rate).

This is Caratini’s second trip to free agency. He commanded a two-year, $12MM deal last time around. He has done enough to get another two-year contract at a slightly higher annual value this winter. Kyle Higashioka landed two years and $13.5MM last offseason, and he’s three years older than Caratini.

Danny Jansen (31)

Jansen was one of the more quietly productive two-way catchers in Toronto early in his career. His tenure with the Blue Jays was marred by injuries, and while he’s been mostly healthy over the past two seasons, his numbers have dropped. His defensive metrics have been up and down for the past couple seasons. He had a terrible second half in 2024 that left him to sign an $8.5MM pillow contract with the Rays. Jansen hit .204/.314/.389 over 73 games with Tampa Bay and was traded to Milwaukee this summer.

There’s not much playing time available when you’re backing up William Contreras, so Jansen only made 16 starts with the Brew Crew. He has impressed in that time (.254/.346/.433 with three homers in 78 plate appearances) but hasn’t rebuilt the value it seemed he’d have when he was out to an excellent start to his walk year in ’24. He’s probably looking at a two-year deal at most, ideally with a team that can offer semi-regular playing time.

Backups

Elias Díaz (35)

Díaz was an All-Star with the Rockies a couple seasons back. His production has trended down the past two years, and he’s coming off a .204/.270/.337 slash over 283 plate appearances with the Padres. He has an excellent arm but has gotten mixed grades for his receiving skills over his career.

Mitch Garver (35)

Seattle will pay Garver a $1MM buyout on a mutual option to conclude a disappointing two-year free agent deal. Garver had been a key contributor to the Rangers’ championship team in 2023. The Mariners hoped he’d carry that power into T-Mobile Park, but he hit just .187/.290/.341 across 720 plate appearances with Seattle. A primary DH with Texas, Garver started 42 games and logged almost 400 innings behind the dish while backing up Cal Raleigh this season.

Austin Hedges (33)

Hedges is probably the worst hitter in MLB, but his defensive reputation is so strong that he continues getting opportunities as a backup. The Guardians have signed him to $4MM deals in consecutive offseasons.

Luke Maile (35)

Maile signed an offseason minor league deal with the Royals. He spent a good portion of the season on the big league roster but only got into 25 games. He hit .244/.346/.356 across 54 trips to the plate. Maile is a career .209/.277/.320 hitter but has a strong defensive rep.

Martín Maldonado (39)

There’s been speculation about retirement for the 39-year-old Maldonado, who finished the season on the Padres’ playoff roster with Díaz nursing an oblique injury. A former Gold Glover and World Series champion on the 2022 Astros, Maldonado has built a career off his rapport with pitching staffs and game-calling ability.

James McCann (36)

McCann was playing on a minor league deal with Atlanta when the Diamondbacks offered him an MLB opportunity on June 22. They expected the veteran to be a temporary fill-in while Gabriel Moreno was on the injured list. McCann played well enough to stick around and push previous backup Jose Herrera off the roster once Moreno was healthy. He finished the season with a .260/.324/.431 line over 42 games and might’ve earned himself a big league deal in 2026.

Gary Sánchez (33)

Sánchez landed an $8.5MM contract from the Orioles last winter. He won’t come close to that this time around, as wrist and knee injuries limited him to 29 games. Sánchez hit .231/.297/.418 across 101 plate appearances. He missed the entire second half with a right knee sprain.

Christian Vázquez (35)

Minnesota’s signing of Vázquez on a three-year, $30MM deal did not work out. He hit .215/.267/.311 during his time in the Twin Cities, falling behind Ryan Jeffers on the depth chart early into his tenure. He’s coming off a .189/.271/.274 showing and probably looking at a minor league deal, though he remains a quality defender.

Club Options

Tom Murphy (35)

Murphy missed the entire season with a back injury. In late August, he told Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle that the team misdiagnosed what turned out to be a herniated disc as an oblique strain. The interview is worth a read in full for more context, but Murphy also blasted an outside spinal clinic that the team recommended for what he called “100% malpractice” after they treated the wrong disc. Murphy said at the time that he’d had no contact with the front office since suffering the injury in Spring Training and called his injury-riddled two seasons with the Giants “an absolute nightmare.” Suffice it to say, he won’t be back in San Francisco. The team will pay him a $250K buyout.

Salvador Perez (36)

Perez almost certainly won’t make it to the market. The Royals have a $13.5MM club option. General manager J.J. Picollo has more or less confirmed that Perez will stick in Kansas City, though they could work out some kind of multi-year deal rather than picking up the option. Picollo said they’ve already begun those conversations with the franchise icon.

Third/Fourth Catchers

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2025-26 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By | at October 4, 2025 7:28am CDT

A record $340MM payroll couldn't even guarantee the Mets a playoff spot, as the Reds edged New York out of a wild card berth via tiebreaker on the final day of the regular season.  The near-miss was the final insult after a disastrous second half, leaving the Amazins with plenty of roster decisions and perhaps some bigger-picture questions to answer during what is sure to be a busy offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Juan Soto, OF: $643.125MM through 2039 (player opt-out after 2029 season, but Mets can override opt-out by adding $40MM to final 10 years of contract)
  • Francisco Lindor, SS: $192MM through 2031 ($5MM deferred annually)
  • Brandon Nimmo, OF: $101.25MM through 2030
  • Sean Manaea, SP: $50MM through 2027 ($7.75MM deferred annually)
  • Kodai Senga, SP: $42MM through 2027 (Mets receive $15MM club option for 2028 if Senga misses at least 130 consecutive days due to elbow injury/Tommy John surgery)
  • Clay Holmes, SP: $25MM through 2027 (Holmes can opt out after 2026 season)
  • Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $2M buyout of $15.75MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

  • Edwin Diaz, RP: $18.5MM player options for 2026 and 2027 seasons (Diaz must decide on both options this offseason; if he remains, Mets hold $17.25MM club option for 2028 season with $1MM buyout)
  • Pete Alonso, 1B: $24MM player option for 2026 (Alonso has already stated he is opting out)
  • Frankie Montas, SP: $17MM player option for 2026
  • A.J. Minter, RP: $11M player option for 2026
  • Brooks Raley, RP: $4.75MM club option for 2026 ($750K buyout)
  • Drew Smith, RP: $2MM club option for 2026

2026 financial commitments (assuming Diaz and Alonso opt out): $201.625MM
Total future commitments (assuming Diaz and Alonso opt out): $1,105,875,000

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

In almost a direct inverse of their magical 2024 season, the 2025 Mets looked like arguably baseball's best team over the first two and a half months before the bottom fell out.  The club was 45-24 at the end of play on June 12, but Friday, June 13 ended up being the start of a Citi Field horror movie --- New York posted just a 38-55 record the rest of the way, leading to increased panic in Queens as it became apparent that the season was slipping away.

Several coaches are already on the way out, including pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and hitting coaches Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes.  But, manager Carlos Mendoza is staying, and president of baseball operations David Stearns isn't being fired two seasons into his tenure after owner Steve Cohen pursued Stearns for years.  Cohen has already issued a public apology for how the Mets' season ended, and it remains to be seen how the owner will react in the face of such a disappointing result.

If you're assuming the reaction will be "Cohen spends another fortune in free agency," that can't be ruled out.  Last winter's record-breaking Juan Soto contract notwithstanding, Stearns' usual strategy in free agency is to aim for shorter-term and relatively less expensive deals on the open market.  This approach simply didn't work in 2025, and during his wrap-up press conference earlier this week, Stearns took responsibility for not doing enough to reinforce his pitching staff either last winter or during the season when the rotation fell apart.

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2025-26 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals New York Mets

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By | at October 3, 2025 10:46am CDT

The Marlins rode a big September winning streak to the fringes of the Wild Card race and weren't mathematically eliminated from the postseason until Sept. 25. They have very little money on the books for the 2026 season and saw some key young players step up as potential building blocks. The front office, led by president of baseball operations Peter Bendix as he enters his third winter on the job, will now need to determine how real that surge was and how strongly to pursue win-now moves for next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $19MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout of $21MM club option for 2027)

Additional Financial Commitments

  • $10MM annually to Yankees, through 2028, as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
  • $5MM buyout on 2026 club option for since-released OF Avisail Garcia
  • $500K buyout on 2026 mutual option for since-released RHP Woo-Suk Go

Option Decisions

  • None

Total 2026 commitments: $32.5MM
Total future commitments: $54.5MM through 2028

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Nardi

Free Agents

  • None

Bendix offered little insight into his club's direction during his end-of-season press conference. The former Rays general manager noted that he was both proud of his club's strong finish to the season but disappointed to be talking to the media when other clubs were still playing. Bendix spoke in typical baseball operations generalities, deflecting questions about his expected level of aggression this offseason to merely say he hoped to build a team that was as good as it could possibly be for as long as it could possibly be. Asked whether fans should expect Sandy Alcantara to be a Marlin by the time spring training rolls around, he sidestepped and stressed the importance of being open-minded to any and all scenarios (link via Isaac Azout of Fish On First).

None of that is meant as a critique of Miami's president, to be clear. The simple reality of running a low-payroll club and trying to navigate some degree of rebuild is that hard decisions will have to be made and that payroll concerns will persist each year. It's unlikely that the Marlins will cannonball into the deep end of free agency this winter, but there's plenty of reason to believe that they could also be a bit more active than they've been in recent offseasons.

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2025-26 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

The Marlins’ Catching Conundrum

By | at October 2, 2025 10:21pm CDT

Miami has struggled to find a viable option behind the plate since trading away J.T. Realmuto ahead of the 2019 season. After Jorge Alfaro, who returned in the Realmuto deal, failed to provide consistent results, the Marlins have shuffled through a mix of veterans and fringe MLBers over the past few seasons. Miami backstops finished 29th in OPS at the position in both 2023 and 2024.

Agustin Ramirez seems like the answer, at least on offense. Acquired in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. trade, the top prospect popped 21 homers and stole 16 bases in his first taste of MLB action. Ramirez paced the team in doubles and total bases. He was a fixture in the heart of the lineup since getting promoted in late April.

The problem with Ramirez as Miami’s solution at catcher was the catching part. He led the league with 19 passed balls, more than twice as many as the next-closest player (Shea Langeliers at nine). Ramirez also led all catchers with 10 errors, despite only making 71 starts at the position. The throwing aspect of the job didn’t go much better. Ramirez allowed 83 steals and threw out just 8 base runners, good for a paltry 8.8% caught stealing rate. He ranked dead last in Statcast’s CS Above Average metric, which compares the number of extra caught stealings to the expectation of an average catcher.

Ramirez made 61 starts at DH in his rookie season. While that may be his ultimate home, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hasn’t given up on Ramirez in the field. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Bendix said Ramirez still has “the ability to be a major league catcher and also needs to improve a lot to be able to consistently achieve that level” (link via Kevin Barral of Fish on First). It isn’t the strongest endorsement, but it’s enough to keep the door ajar on Ramirez’s future at the position.

Liam Hicks functioned as Miami’s backup catcher for the majority of the 2025 season. He started 49 games behind the plate, while also making 23 starts at first base and 20 at DH. Hicks joined the team as a Rule 5 selection from Detroit. He posted a solid 98 wRC+ across 390 plate appearances, though the power was lacking. Hicks hit just a half dozen home runs and finished with a .099 ISO. He doesn’t have the type of thump typically associated with 1B/DH types, so sticking at catcher might be his only avenue to consistent playing time.

The main issue with Hicks as a long-term option is the same one that plagues Ramirez. Hicks allowed 51 stolen bases last season, while catching just six would-be thieves. He had the fifth-worst mark in Statcast’s CS Above Average metric.

The real answer at catcher might be waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Joe Mack is the organization’s fourth-ranked prospect according to MLB.com. FanGraphs ranked Mack third among Miami prospects in their midseason update. Mack was a first-round pick in 2021. He’s put up strong offensive numbers at each minor league stop, including a 129 wRC+ in 112 games at Double-A in 2024. Mack torched Double-A pitching once again to begin 2025 and was quickly bumped to Triple-A. He hit 18 home runs with a solid .250/.320/.459 slash line in 412 plate appearances with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. The 22-year-old has an elite arm, which will provide some much-needed help in slowing down the run game. Mack has a shot to break camp with the team in 2026 after hitting .298/.382/.766 with six homers in 14 games in September.

Whether or not Mack is with the big-league club next season, the team could use a glove-first veteran option. Victor Caratini, Austin Hedges, and James McCann would be viable options that shouldn’t be overly expensive. Old friend Jacob Stallings could also be a candidate to soak up innings behind the plate for a low investment. Ironically, Nick Fortes would’ve fit the bill as a veteran caddy to Mack. Fortes led the Marlins in starts behind the plate in 2023 and 2024, but was shipped out at the trade deadline this past season.

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Poll: Who Will Win The Wild Card Series?

By | at September 28, 2025 8:14pm CDT

The 2025 regular season is in the books, and the baseball world is now gearing up for what might be a wild postseason.  It took until Game 162 to finalize the full slate of playoff teams and matchups, but now we know the eight clubs who will take part in the wild card round that begins on Tuesday, as “October baseball” gets started a bit early this year on September 30.  All WCS matchups are best-of-three, and will take place entirely in the home ballpark of the higher-seeded team.

The Guardians will meet the Tigers again after Cleveland posted a 5-1 record against Detroit over a pair of series in the last two weeks, contributing to the AL Central’s epic shakeup.  The Tigers held a 9.5-game lead in the division before going 3-13 over their last 16 games to barely eke out a wild card slot.  The Guards, meanwhile, went 19-4 over their final 23 games to overtake Detroit and claim Cleveland’s third division title in the last four years.

After all of that, the two clubs find themselves facing off in the postseason for the second straight year.  The Guardians needed the full five games to oust Detroit in the 2024 AL Division Series, as last season the Tigers were the team surging into the playoffs after a late-season hot streak.  All of the momentum is on the Guardians’ side at this point, and even though the Tigers will have Tarik Skubal going in Game 1, Cleveland’s pitching has been on such a roll that the Guards have the overall pitching advantage.  The Guardians held an 8-5 record against the Tigers in regular-season play this year.

One of baseball’s greatest rivalries will be renewed again in October when the Yankees host the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.  The Yankees lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Blue Jays to fall just short of the AL East crown, despite an eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season.  New York’s rotation and homer-heavy offense seem to be clicking at the right time, yet the Sox had seemingly had the Yankees’ number this year, with a 9-4 record in head-to-head play.

After falling short to the Dodgers in last year’s World Series, the Yankees are eager to return the Fall Classic and finally win the first championship of the Aaron Judge era.  Boston hasn’t quite been the same since Roman Anthony was lost to an oblique injury in early September and the rookie star’s status remains unclear for postseason action.  However, the Red Sox have a well-rounded roster and an ace of their own in Garrett Crochet, plus the organization is hungry for postseason success in their first playoff trip since 2021.

The Cubs have also just ended a mini-drought in reaching October for the first time since the shortened 2020 season, as Chicago stepped up to win 92 games after posting 83-79 records in both 2023 and 2024.  They’ll now host the Padres in the first postseason meeting between the two clubs since 1984, when San Diego fought back from a 2-0 series deficit to win a best-of-five NLCS and deny Chicago a trip to the World Series.  Forty-one years later, it’s the Padres who might feel slightly more cursed at the moment, since the club has yet to advance beyond the NLCS in their three previous playoff trips in the last six seasons.

There’s plenty of pressure on the Friars to finally reach the pinnacle of this era of success, though Chicago is hoping for more than just a playoff appearance after its win-now trade for Kyle Tucker last winter.  After starting 38-22, the Cubs have been more okay than elite (54-48) over the better part of the last four months.  The series’ Wrigleyville locale could be impactful, as the Padres were only 38-43 on the road this season.

The Dodgers host the Reds in a matchup of two teams with very different recent postseason histories.  Los Angeles has won 12 of the last 13 NL West titles, and is looking to become baseball’s first repeat World Series champ since the 1998-2000 Yankees pulled off the three-peat.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, is in the playoffs for just the fifth time in the last 30 years, and the Reds haven’t won a playoff series since all the way back in 1995 — when they beat the Dodgers in the NLDS.

Winning “only” 93 games counts as a relative disappointment by the Dodgers’ standards, and the club will need to navigate an extra playoff round.  This puts more pressure on the beleaguered L.A. bullpen, and Will Smith‘s participation is a question mark due to a hairline fracture in his right hand.  The rotation is on a roll, however, and naturally there’s a lot of built-in playoff experience for the reigning champs.  The young Reds gained some seasoning in beating out the Mets for a wild card berth, and of course manager Terry Francona is no stranger to October.  Cincinnati’s rotation and bullpen will need to continue their excellent form to counter Shohei Ohtani and company, and the wild card series would be a great time for the inconsistent Reds lineup to get on track.

Which four teams do you think will reach the Division Series?  Vote now in our polls:

Who wins, Tigers or Guardians?

  • Cleveland 64% (8,004)
  • Detroit 36% (4,529)

Total votes: 12,533

Who wins, Red Sox or Yankees?

  • New York 56% (6,595)
  • Boston 44% (5,081)

Total votes: 11,676

Who wins, Padres or Cubs?

  • San Diego 50% (5,407)
  • Chicago 50% (5,334)

Total votes: 10,741

Who wins, Reds or Dodgers?

  • Los Angeles 72% (7,764)
  • Cincinnati 28% (3,012)

Total votes: 10,776

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Offseason Outlook: Athletics

By | at September 25, 2025 11:59pm CDT

An awful May ensured the A's were headed for another losing season. They made arguably the biggest sell-side trade at the deadline, sending Mason Miller to San Diego for a prospect package headlined by potential franchise shortstop Leo De Vries. The A's have quietly been one of the best teams in the American League for the final two months of the season. They're in for a second straight offseason focused primarily on pitching. It's not an easy task while they're in a Triple-A home ballpark that plays as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lawrence Butler, CF: $62.25MM through 2031 (including $2MM in yet to be paid signing bonuses and buyout of '32 club option)
  • Brent Rooker, DH: $48MM through 2029 (deal includes '30 club/vesting option)
  • Luis Severino, RHP: $47MM through 2027 (including $5MM signing bonus to be paid in January; can opt out after '26)
  • Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $11.25MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)

2026 financial commitments: $45.75MM
Total future commitments: $168.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Waldichuk

Free Agents

For the second straight year, the A's go into the offseason with positive momentum despite finishing with a losing record. They've been a better second half team in both 2024 and '25. That alone probably doesn't hold a ton of predictive value, but it's fair to have more optimism next spring than it was last offseason.

It appears ownership is satisfied with the direction of the rebuild. The A's extended manager Mark Kotsay last offseason on a deal that runs at least through 2028. General manager David Forst is reportedly on an expiring deal. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that he's in talks with owner John Fisher about his future. Rosenthal suggests he could agree to at least a two-year extension that runs up to the team's expected opening of its Las Vegas ballpark.

They're on track to go into Vegas with a very good offense. Nick Kurtz has shredded major league pitching. Jacob Wilson is coming off the first of what should be multiple All-Star appearances at shortstop. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom have taken steps forward offensively. Soderstrom also showed he's capable of playing better defense than expected in left field after being forced off first base by Kurtz's arrival. Even as Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler took steps back after fantastic 2024 seasons, this lineup runs six deep. The 18-year-old De Vries is a dynamic talent at the top of the farm system who has a good shot to pair with Wilson as an elite middle infield tandem down the line.

The A's don't have the same kind of young corps anchoring the pitching staff. Neither the Luis Severino signing nor the Jeffrey Springs trade stabilized the rotation as hoped (though Severino has been quite good down the stretch). Both pitchers have managed back-of-the-rotation results overall without missing a ton of bats. Neither has fared well at the A's temporary home park in Sacramento.

Severino blasted the arrangement when speaking with Brendan Kuty of The Athletic in June. Asked about his stark home/road splits, the righty said his road numbers were better "because we play in a big-league stadium on the road." He added that pitching in Sacramento is "not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun."

The criticism was bizarre considering the A's went beyond general expectations to sign Severino to a three-year, $67MM contract last offseason. That price presumably baked in a cost for pitching in a minor league facility on a team without a true home city. Unsurprisingly, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggested that Severino's comments were not well-received by A's brass. The team would've welcomed a chance to trade him at the deadline. Between the contract and Severino's lack of swing-and-miss stuff both at home and away, they were unable to find a taker.

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Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?

By | at September 23, 2025 4:00pm CDT

This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.

A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.

That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.

While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.

Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi‘s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.

If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.

How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:

Should the Pirates trade Mitch Keller this winter?

  • Yes, trade him for help on offense and get his salary off the books. 73% (1,862)
  • No, hold onto him unless overwhelmed by an offer from another team. 27% (682)

Total votes: 2,544

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Poll: Jack Flaherty’s Player Option

By | at September 22, 2025 5:17pm CDT

Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.

Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.

After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.

His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.

When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.

Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.

Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.

While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.

How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:

Should Jack Flaherty Exercise His Player Option For 2026?

  • Yes, he should stay with Detroit next year. 62% (2,489)
  • No, he should test the open market this winter. 38% (1,533)

Total votes: 4,022

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