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The Blue Jays came up short on most (but not all) of their many pursuits of star free agents this winter, and the ship may have already sailed on the team's efforts to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension. Amidst all the pessimism surrounding the Jays' future, the team did make some notable moves to try and reload the roster after a disappointing 2024 campaign.
Major League Signings
2025 spending: $59MM (not counting Tate/Walker)
Total spending: $156MM
Option Decisions
Trades & Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Notable Losses
Toronto hitters combined for only 156 home runs and a .389 slugging percentage in 2024, so a 44-homer bat like Anthony Santander should bring some much-needed thunder to the lineup. The Blue Jays made a hefty $92.5MM investment that Santander can build on the career year that saw him hit .235/.308/.506 over 665 plate appearances for the Orioles, while handily topping his previous high of 33 homers (in 2022).
Santander's overall hitting profile is a concern, as evidenced by the low batting average and OBP. However, Santander still posted an above-average walk rate despite the low on-base number, and his strikeout rate remained above average in 2024 even though chasing pitches has been an issue for his entire career. The switch-hitter is certainly a power-first (if not quite a power-only) type of batter, yet the profile fits for a Jays team lacking in pop and in left-handed hitting balance.
Santander will step right into the lineup as the everyday left fielder, and he'll probably get a decent share of DH time given that his glovework is considered only passable. As defense-focused as the Blue Jays have been over the last couple of years, they continued to move in that direction with a surprising trade for arguably the sport's best defensive second baseman.
At the outset of the offseason, the Braves made a surprising move to decline their club option on veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud despite prior indications being that they’d planned to exercise the option. Things turned out just fine for d’Arnaud, who signed a two-year deal with the Angels shortly thereafter, but the decision came back to bite Atlanta when starting catcher Sean Murphy suffered a cracked rib that will keep him out of action through at least the middle of April.
When Murphy missed time due to an oblique issue last year, d’Arnaud was there to step in as a capable regular option. This year, they’ll have no such ready-made answer locked and loaded on the roster. That’s not to say the club has no internal options; youngster Drake Baldwin is a well-regarded prospect who already seemed likely to make his MLB debut at some point this year, and Chadwick Tromp was already in line to make the roster as the club’s backup catcher. Baldwin has raked this spring to the tune of a .368/.520/.474 slash line, and perhaps that’s enough to convince Atlanta brass to give him the reins for the start of the season while Murphy recovers.
However, it’s hardly a reliable solution to the issue. Baldwin has yet to take a major league at-bat, and he struggled offensively at the Double-A level just last year before turning his season around upon his promotion to Triple-A. And if Baldwin proves unprepared to handle the big leagues, Tromp isn’t a viable starting option. The soon to be 30-year-old backstop has just 59 games and 156 plate appearances under his belt over parts of five seasons in the majors. In that time, he’s hit just .232/.237/.397 with a wRC+ of 66. While it’s not impossible to imagine more regular playing time in the majors allowing Tromp to perform better, 47 catchers produced more offense that Tromp’s career numbers across at least 100 plate appearances in the majors last year.
The Braves do have a pair of non-roster invitees in camp who could step in, but neither inspires confidence. Sandy Leon didn’t play in the majors at all last year, last had even 100 plate appearances in a season back in 2021, and is a career .208/.276/.311 hitter. Fellow NRI Curt Casali has a somewhat stronger track record, having played at least 40 games in the majors every year since 2018 (excluding the 60-game 2020 season where he appeared in 31 games for the Reds), but hit just .194/.293/.250 for the Giants in 125 trips to the plate last year.
Given all of the uncertainty facing Atlanta, an external addition can’t be ruled out. It’s been reported that the club made an offer to Yasmani Grandal even prior to Murphy’s injury. While Grandal turned that deal down, it signals the club already had reservations about its catching depth and it’s at least possible that the sides could circle back to each other with Opening Day fast approaching and additional playing time having opened up for Grandal.
Other options on the free agent market are few and far between. James McCann and Yan Gomes remain unsigned, but other options could emerge in the coming days as veterans on minor league deals with other teams begin to get the opportunity to opt out and return to free agency.
Jorge Alfaro, Omar Narvaez, and Tucker Barnhart are among the veterans in camp with other clubs who could return to free agency if they don’t make their current club’s Opening Day roster. It’s also at least possible that a club with an excess of catching options on the 40-man roster like the Twins could either make one of their backstops available on waivers or via trade, though trades of particular note are quite rare at this stage of the calendar. While none of the options likely to be available are game changers, they could offer a higher floor than any of Atlanta’s current options and allow the club to avoid rushing Baldwin to the majors.
How do you think the Braves will approach the situation? Will they take Murphy’s injury as an opportunity to give Baldwin regular playing time and stand pat with their internal options, or will they instead look to upgrade over a potential tandem of Baldwin and Tromp by bringing in a more reliable veteran to help handle the pitching staff? Have your say in the poll below:
The Royals began the offseason with a three-year signing to keep their excellent rotation intact. They traded from that starting staff a month later to acquire a new leadoff hitter. Kansas City hoped to follow up with an impact offensive acquisition that never materialized. They instead turned to the relief market late in the winter to add a veteran closer.
Major League Signings
2025 spending: $35MM
Total spending: $80MM
Option Decisions
Trades and Claims
Extensions
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
The Royals were perhaps the most surprising playoff team of 2024. Kansas City had a 30-win improvement relative to the preceding season. They held the Orioles to one run in two games to sweep their Wild Card series. The Yankees knocked K.C. off in the Division Series, but the Royals' window has reopened after a nine-year postseason drought.
They remain one of the more top-heavy contenders. Kansas City's success was built around an elite rotation and an MVP-caliber season from Bobby Witt Jr. They preserved a crucial piece of that rotation just before free agency opened. Kansas City signed Michael Wacha to a three-year, $51MM extension to keep him from opting out and testing free agency. The veteran righty rejoins Seth Lugo as the 2-3 arms behind breakout left-hander Cole Ragans.
The Cubs’ teardown of their last core that saw them part ways with Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel over the course of nine months. That slate of moves, to this point, has offered little in terms of major league production. There are some promising prospects from trades in that teardown, such as Owen Caissie (Darvish) and Kevin Alcantara (Rizzo) knocking on the door of the big leagues, but some of the pieces acquired in the trades of Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, and Kimbrel have already departed the organization (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Alexander Canario).
So far, the primary exception is the trade that sent Baez (and right-hander Trevor Williams) to the Mets for center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former first-round pick’s premium defense and speed gave him a high floor, and he continued to elevate his stock en route to billing as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.
In a league that’s seen an increasing number of young talents locked up long-term before reaching arbitration, Crow-Armstrong’s pedigree has long led Cubs fans to wonder if Chicago could follow in the footsteps of Arizona, Atlanta, and their brethren on the south side and lock up their young center fielder early in his career. It seems as though both the club’s front office and Crow-Armstrong himself could consider such an arrangement. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote last week that the front office “would be open” to bringing an offer to Crow-Armstrong. For his part, the youngster told Sharma he’s “always open to that conversation” as well.
Both the highs and the lows of Crow-Armstrong’s profile were on full display in 2024. He hit just .237/.286/.384 (87 wRC+) in 410 trips to the plate across 123 games… and his 2.7 fWAR in center field was still tied with Jacob Young of the Nationals for the eighth-highest figure of any player at the position last year thanks to his top-flight defensive and baserunning abilities. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths, including 22 straight steals without being caught. In the field, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field.
Impressive as his rookie season was in many ways, it’s undeniable that Crow-Armstrong’s bat left something to be desired. Among 31 center fielders to get at least 400 plate appearances last year, his aforementioned 87 wRC+ ranks just 20th and puts him well behind the production of similarly gifted center fielders like Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle. If the Cubs believe Crow-Armstrong will remain a below-average hitter, it’d be difficult to justify extending him when he’s already under team control through his age-28 season.
There were some signs of positive growth throughout the year, however. From July onward, Crow-Armstrong slashed .260/.309/.442 with a wRC+ of 108. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.6%) rates were both slightly improved in that time, but most of that offensive boost came from a power outburst. Crow-Armstrong entered July with just one home run but crushed nine more over his final 72 games. While Crow-Armstrong’s .085 ISO through the end of June would put him in line with Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez, his .185 ISO from July onward was more in line with hitters like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The increased power is reflected in more advanced metrics, as well. Crow-Armstrong’s barrel rate (4.3%) and hard-hit rate (29.8%) were both lackluster early in the season but from July onward increased to 8.9% and 40.3%, respectively.
Perhaps Harris, who signed an eight-year, $72MM extension with the Braves back in 2022, could be the most useful comp for Crow-Armstrong given his strong work in center field and up-and-down offensive production throughout his career to this point. Harris was in the midst of a dominant rookie season where he slashed .297/.339/.514 (137 wRC+) at the time of his deal with Atlanta and was also a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now, but lacked his pedigree as a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect while also providing far less defensive value than Crow-Armstrong does.
Lawrence Butler just signed a seven-year, $65.5MM extension but did so with more than a year of service. Glove-first position players with some offensive ceiling who signed long-term deals in recent years include Ke’Bryan Hayes (eight years, $70MM) and Ezequiel Tovar (seven years, $63.5MM). Most of those deals were signed when the player had five remaining years of club control, however. Crow-Armstrong has six.
If you were in the Cubs’ shoes, would you try to lock up Crow-Armstrong long-term despite his lack of consistent offensive track record? Or would you wait to see how he develops in 2025 and beyond, even at the risk that he substantially boosts his earning power with a breakout campaign? Have your say in the poll below:
The D-backs followed up their 2023 World Series appearance with a narrow playoff miss and responded by making the biggest free agent signing in franchise history. Now brandishing one of the best one-two starting pitching punches in the sport, they'll look to ride a powerhouse rotation back into October baseball.
Major League Signings
2025 spending: $46.35MM
Total spending: $216.35MM
Option Decisions
Trades and Waiver Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Notable Losses
Arizona's playoff hopes in the 2024 season stayed alive until the very end, but they ultimately watched from home after missing the postseason by the literal narrowest margin possible. It was a bitter pill for the club and its fans to swallow -- particularly since the offseason promised considerable turnover. Star first baseman Christian Walker hit free agency, as did slugger Joc Pederson on the heels of what was arguably a career-best season. Closer Paul Sewald and key role players like Randal Grichuk and Kevin Newman also returned to the open market.
That all left plenty of work to be done, and not a ton of payroll space to make it happen -- or so it seemed initially, anyhow. General manager Mike Hazen publicly stated in November that he anticipated a payroll in the same range as 2024's $173MM figure. With Jordan Montgomery exercising a $22.5MM player option on the heels of a down year, the D-backs lost plenty of flexibility. There was still a decent amount of room, but they ostensibly needed to replace their first baseman, designated hitter, closer and multiple bench pieces.
As he set those payroll expectations, Hazen also made clear that bolstering the back end of his bullpen was a key priority. For the first third or even half of the offseason, the general expectation was that Arizona would seek high-end bullpen help and perhaps a more affordable replacement for Walker, who seemed destined for multiple years with an average annual value in the $20MM range.
The Cubs added star power in the Kyle Tucker trade, but otherwise made modest additions despite several other big swings.
Major League Signings
2025 spending: $33.25MM
Total spending: $56.25MM
Option Decisions
Trades and Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Notable Losses
Much like the previous winter with Marcus Stroman, this Cubs offseason kicked off with a pivotal player option decision that would affect their financial flexibility. This time, Cody Bellinger elected to take the $27.5MM owed to him in 2025 in lieu of a $2.5MM buyout, which also preserves a $25MM option on 2026 with a $5MM buyout. Bellinger's decision was not surprising, as he's now positioned himself to decline the '26 option having collected a total of $32.5MM for '25.
The Athletic's Patrick Mooney suggested a couple of times early in the offseason that the Cubs were seeking a starting pitcher who "could be trusted in a playoff game." Nonetheless, it wasn't long before Mooney's colleague Sahadev Sharma wrote that "the top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out" for the club. Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes would go on to sign contracts ranging from $182-218MM (though some included deferred money), and the Cubs were seemingly never a factor on them due to what I assume are philosophical objections to five-plus year commitments to thirty-something-aged free agent starters.
Instead, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made a pre-Winter Meetings strike for 34-year-old southpaw Matthew Boyd. Boyd was available on a two-year contract because of his age and injury history. After totaling 355 2/3 innings for the 2018-19 Tigers, Boyd has not reached 80 innings in a season since.
It’s been a tough spring for the Yankees on the injury front. The club has faced a number of noteworthy injuries, with the latest blow being the loss of veteran ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2025 season, while rotation-mate Luis Gil is set to miss a couple of months after suffering a lat strain. The lineup has been impacted as well, with slugger Giancarlo Stanton poised to miss significant time due to elbow issues while likely starting third baseman DJ LeMahieu has been sidelined by a calf strain.
Each of those injuries have prompted varying levels of speculations that the club could look to bring in some help, but the Yankees are seemingly facing fairly strict budget limits. RosterResource projects them for a $285MM payroll. The Yanks have shown little interest in adding payroll, and their projected $305MM competitive balance tax number is already above the $301MM top tax threshold. It would be fairly difficult to make lineup and rotation additions with limited budget space and a limited supply available to them. General manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of the Yankees making a notable addition, citing the current tax situation as an obstacle.
Perhaps the most obvious choice for an upgrade would be the starting rotation. The Yankees are already down at least one starter for the entire 2025 season, and while Marcus Stroman can step into the rotation as a #5 starter relatively seamlessly, the depth beyond him gets shakier. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 6.18 ERA over his past two seasons, while prospect Will Warren struggled to a 10.32 ERA in his big league debut last year with an ERA near 6.00 at Triple-A. A steadier depth arm like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson would make plenty of sense for a rotation that has multiple pitchers with notable injury histories.
The Yankees do have plenty of high-end talent in the rotation that could help to make up for the lack of depth. Max Fried is a legitimate No. 1 starter in his own right. Carlos Rodon is just two seasons removed from earning Cy Young votes. Clarke Schmidt posted a sterling 2.85 ERA in 16 starts last year. With the reigning AL Rookie of the Year set to join the rotation at some point this year, perhaps the Yankees’ needs are more acute in the lineup.
The idea of filling Stanton’s spot in the lineup is made more intriguing by the presence of a comparable veteran lingering in free agenct. J.D. Martinez remains on the market, and the two sluggers have produced nearly identical offensive value over the past five years: Stanton has slashed .231/.313/.473 with a 117 wRC+, while Martinez has hit .263/.330/.477 with a wRC+ of 118. Even with Martinez coming off a relative down season and a particularly tough second half with the Mets last year, it’s easy to see why having Martinez fill in for Stanton could be very appealing. The Yankees have had at least “some contact” with Martinez since Stanton was sidelined.
Then again, it’s fair to argue that Stanton is the easiest of the injured Yankees to replace in-house. Ben Rice has impressed during Spring Training and was already in the conversation for the backup catcher job. He could be tabbed as a potential DH option against right-handed hitters. Another solution would be giving regulars more rest by playing them at DH on occasion. If the club places Trent Grisham in center field for a day rather than Cody Bellinger, Stanton’s injury could let them give Bellinger a partial rest day at DH or have him back up any of Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, or even Paul Goldschmidt so they could get a rest day of their own.
Third base has also been a question throughout camp. LeMahieu seems like he’ll have a shorter absence than Stanton, but even coming off a down season, his injury thins out the infield options. A mix of LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera always looked fairly uninspiring. An MLBTR poll late last month suggested that a plurality of respondents believed the club’s primary third baseman would be someone not yet in the organization.
The third base market — and second base market, if Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays third instead — has largely been picked over, however. The Yankees were connected to infield options like Jose Iglesias and Jorge Polanco at points throughout the offseason and into Spring Training, but both veterans have since landed elsewhere. Nolan Arenado is known to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Yankees, but it’s unlikely New York would be willing to take on his contract. Veteran Whit Merrifield remains available in free agency but isn’t a clear upgrade coming off a downturn in production at the plate. Perhaps upcoming opt-out opportunities for non-roster veterans and players made available on waivers due to roster crunches when Opening Day draws near will present a more viable solution.
How do MLBTR readers think the Yankees should address their injury-created holes? Will the club sign/acquire a starter to deepen its oft-injured rotation mix? Or could the Yankees instead turn to the lineup and either replace Stanton at DH or look for an upgrade to the infield? Have your say in the poll below:
The rebuild continued in South Beach, as the Marlins continued to move experienced talent for prospects.
Major League Signings
2025 spending: $3.5MM
Total spending: $3.5MM
Option Decisions
Trades & Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
Miami's offseason began with a big internal housecleaning, as the Marlins parted ways with their entire coaching staff, and several behind-the-scenes employees ranging from the team's dietician to the traveling secretary. The headline name among all the Marlins' new hires was Clayton McCullough, chosen for his first big league managerial position after a long career as a coach and coordinator in the Dodgers' organization, and as a manager at multiple levels of the Blue Jays' farm system.
McCullough's history of working in player development and with players at both the Major and minor league levels bodes well for his stewardship of a Marlins team that continues to look towards the future. Of all the players on the Marlins' 40-man roster, only Sandy Alcantara and new signing Cal Quantrill have more than four years of MLB service time, as president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has already significantly overhauled the roster after a little over 16 months on the job.
Zack Scott, former Mets Acting GM and four-time champion with the Red Sox, empowers sports operations and individuals to win through Four Rings Sports Solutions. He specializes in data-driven strategies and leadership development. His Sports Ops Launchpad helps aspiring sports ops pros break into the industry. Connect with him on LinkedIn here. Zack will be contributing periodically to MLB Trade Rumors.
As Florida’s Grapefruit League approaches its halfway point, Yankees and Mets fans are already venting their fury. Prized offseason pitching acquisitions Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are injured before even throwing a regular-season pitch for the Mets. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is also hurt and facing the prospect of possibly missing the entire season.
Having given Montas and Manaea a combined $109MM, the Mets faithful want to know how the team doctors green-lit those deals. Likewise, Yankees supporters question what Cole’s physical exams missed after the Bombers convinced him not to opt out and walk away from the $144MM left on his deal.
As a former baseball executive, I’ve fielded those same frustrated queries. Forecasting player injury risk involves far more art than science, often leaving teams and fans dissatisfied. I hear these complaints frequently since I live in the NY metro area and contribute to SNY’s weeknight show, Baseball Night in New York.
There’s rarely a satisfying answer because the assessment process is highly imperfect. Every veteran pitcher has wear and tear if you look hard enough. Acute injuries occur after the fact. Let’s examine how it typically works, its key flaws, and some ways it could be improved.
The Current (Flawed) Process
When a free agent agrees to terms, the deal is almost always contingent on a physical. The team’s medical staff examines the player, including clinical evaluations, strength and flexibility tests, and MRI imaging of joints like shoulders and elbows for pitchers.
Experts from across the organization weigh in with opinions that a head athletic trainer or performance director synthesizes into an overall risk rating for the GM. For trades, it’s a similar review of medical records, but there’s no in-person exam.
There are several issues with this approach:
• Doctors and trainers interpret MRI findings differently
• Individual expert biases color the assessments
• Lack of standardized, objective metrics
• Siloed information without enough collaboration
• Over-reliance on a single organizational voice
• Underutilization of advanced data analytics
In this high-stakes environment, a process reliant on human judgment is open to significant error.
A System Ripe for Abuse
Valid, complete information is critical for proper risk assessments. However, in this ultra-competitive industry, teams are motivated to gain edges wherever possible, sometimes unethically.
When I was with the Red Sox in 2016, we traded top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz. Our medical staff reviewed the records San Diego shared and signed off on the deal.
After Pomeranz reported, we discovered he was managing multiple health issues that were not disclosed to us. ESPN reported that the Padres instructed their athletic trainers to maintain two sets of files—one for internal use and a sanitized one for trade purposes. While MLB never divulged details, they investigated and concluded there was wrongdoing. GM A.J. Preller was suspended for 30 days (Take that, wrist!).
The incident eroded trust so much that any subsequent transactions with the Padres were thought to need additional vetting by a third party. It exemplified the system’s vulnerability to exploitation and dependence on clubs exchanging information in good faith.
From Biased Experts to Big Mistakes
Even when injury records are complete, human bias and error can still lead teams astray. As the Mets’ Acting GM before the 2021 season, I explored signing veteran starter Rich Hill. Our medical team reviewed his records and strongly recommended against the move, given his age and injury history. While I had reservations about the assessment, I ultimately decided to heed their advice and pass on Hill.
In retrospect, that was a mistake. Hill signed with the Rays for a reasonable $2.5MM and gave them nearly 100 solid innings. When we traded for him that July, I learned Rich was understandably frustrated that our medical assessment was pessimistic months earlier.
I called Rich to clarify the situation and take responsibility for the decision. While our assessor likely took a conservative approach, as the GM, I had to own the final call. This experience reinforced how these assessments can vary based on the individuals and organizational histories involved. Years prior, former Mets performance staff members took bullets, rightly or wrongly, for player injuries, influencing the current staff to take a more risk-averse approach.
Moving forward, I pushed our group to focus more on objective data and collaborate across silos to mitigate individual biases. We had to balance risks with potential rewards and understand that perfect prediction is impossible. Judgment calls wouldn’t always work out, but we needed to approach them with discipline, openness, and the bigger picture in mind.
That same month, we selected Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker 10th overall in the draft. After the pick, we did a deep dive into his medicals, which included multiple expert opinions. Despite Rocker’s talent, we ultimately decided not to offer him a contract due to the high perceived risk. A year later, the Rangers drafted Rocker third overall and signed him for $5.2MM. Two teams evaluating similar information came to opposite conclusions. Rocker is now a top-50 prospect, excelling in the minors. Our assessment was clearly wrong, and it cost us at least a valuable trade chip and potentially a frontline starter. That’s how impactful these judgments can be.
Finding a Better Way Forward
To reduce costly human bias and error, MLB and individual clubs must evolve to a more data-driven, objective methodology. Some suggested improvements:
MLB should:
• Standardize protocols for medicals, physicals, and imaging
• Mandate sharing of training and biomechanical data
• Use validated tools to assess psychological factors
Teams should:
• Leverage AI and machine learning to analyze images (e.g., MRI) and predict injury risk
• Develop personalized biomechanical and kinetic player models
• Improve collaboration between medical, performance, and analytics staff
• Have subjective evaluators predict outcomes (e.g., innings pitched) and assign confidence scores
By taking these steps and focusing on hard data while still valuing expert insights, teams can optimize the art and science of this process. It won’t be perfect but will be significantly better than current practices.
Progressive teams are already moving in this direction, and others are sure to follow as they recognize the competitive advantages it brings. Smarter, more precise health forecasting is the future of player acquisitions. Hopefully, fans will soon have more confidence in the medical evaluations that drive roster decisions.
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