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The Rockies’ Latest Missed Trade Opportunity

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Ryan McMahon should have been available at last summer's deadline. The Rockies third baseman got out to a strong start to the 2024 season. He raked in April and continued to hit well through the end of May. His production began to tail off in June, but he carried a solid .272/.350/.447 batting line into his first career All-Star Game. His exit velocities were up, and he was making contact a little more frequently, at least early in the season.

Some of McMahon's early-season results were driven by unsustainable batted ball numbers. He had a .355 average on balls in play through the first two months. Teams wouldn't have expected hits to keep falling at quite that rate, yet even slightly above-average offense would be sufficient when paired with a plus glove. The trade market was light on infield talent. McMahon would have been an attractive target for contenders. The Yankees and Blue Jays were among the teams that reportedly expressed interest.

The Rockies never seemed to consider moving him. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported as early as May 29 that McMahon was "highly unlikely" to be available. Three weeks later, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post confirmed there was essentially no chance of a trade. Saunders wrote that the front office was keen on a left side infield tandem of McMahon and newly-extended shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Perhaps more significantly, he reported that McMahon was a favorite player of Rox owner Dick Monfort.

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Poll: Should The Phillies Try A Six-Man Rotation?

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As has been the case for each of the past several seasons, the Phillies’ rotation remains the team’s greatest strength. Their starters rank fifth in MLB in ERA and first in strikeouts, K-BB%, and SIERA. They trail only the Mets in FanGraphs WAR. Philadelphia’s continued success in this area has plenty to do with the talent the team has acquired and developed, but health has been another critical factor. In an age when arm injuries are a greater concern than ever, the Phillies have done an excellent job of keeping their pitchers on the field, and they have reaped the rewards. As Matt Gelb of The Athletic pointed out this morning, the Phillies were the only team in Major League Baseball not to make any major league pitching transactions during the first month of the season; the 13 pitchers on their active roster right now are the same 13 they started with on Opening Day.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff will grow healthier still on Sunday when left-hander Ranger Suárez is reinstated from the injured list. He has been out since the spring with back tightness. There is no doubt the Phillies will be pleased to have Suárez back on the bump. An All-Star for the time last summer, he has pitched to a 3.27 ERA and a 3.92 SIERA in 537 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He has been particularly dominant in October, with a 1.43 ERA in 10 postseason appearances (eight starts). No active pitcher has thrown more postseason innings (37 2/3) with a lower ERA. Nevertheless, Suárez’s return raises a difficult question for the Phillies that few other teams are lucky enough to have to answer: What are they going to do with all of their starting pitchers?

The Phillies are one of just five teams to have used only five starting pitchers so far this season. Zack Wheeler has continued to shine in his age-35 campaign, posting a 3.48 ERA and a 2.52 SIERA with 57 strikeouts across an MLB-leading 44 innings of work. Meanwhile, offseason trade acquisition Jesús Luzardo has looked unexpectedly ace-like himself, with a 1.73 ERA and a 3.12 SIERA through his first six starts with his new club. Cristopher Sánchez put an injury scare last week behind him, and his 3.54 ERA and 3.00 SIERA suggest he’s picking up right where he left off in his All-Star 2024 season. Aaron Nola has struggled at times, pitching to a 5.40 ERA, but his underlying numbers (3.63 SIERA, 3.58 xFIP) are stronger, and he has given the Phillies at least five innings in all six of his starts. Finally, Taijuan Walker has been a pleasant surprise as the no. 5. After an ugly 2024 (7.10 ERA, 5.25 SIERA), Walker has been much more effective so far this year. His 2.78 ERA might not be sustainable, but his 4.41 SIERA paints the picture of a capable back-end starter. That’s the kind of pitcher the Phillies hoped they were signing when they gave him a four-year, $72MM contract in December 2022.

It’s not up for debate who Suárez would replace if the Phillies decide to stick with a traditional five-man rotation. Walker might have a sub-three ERA right now, but he’s not the same caliber of pitcher as any of Wheeler, Luzardo, Sánchez, or Nola. If his dismal performance last season wasn’t enough to prove that, his 20% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate in 2025, both the worst rates among Phillies starters, should do it. The question, however, is whether the Phillies would consider keeping all six arms in circulation once Suárez returns.

Asked exactly that on Tuesday, manager Rob Thomson offered a cagey response. “Possibly,” he told reporters, including Noah Levick of NBC Sports Philadelphia. “We’re kind of walking through that a little bit right now.” In contrast, Gelb wrote this morning that the Phillies are “highly unlikely” to use a six-man rotation. That said, even Gelb didn’t shut down the idea entirely, and he acknowledged that sticking with a five-man rotation would “prompt a tough decision” for the Phillies to make.

The crux of the issue is that the Phillies need Walker – they just don’t need him right now. As long as Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sánchez, and Suárez are healthy, Walker is all but irrelevant on this team. Yet, rotation depth is essential to get through a 162-game season, even for a team with a strong track record of keeping pitchers healthy. Walker proved how valuable he can be when he stepped in for Suárez during the first month of the season. The Phillies surely want to have him as an option again should any of their top five starters suffer an injury.

However, if the Phillies don’t keep Walker in the rotation, they’ll have to move him to the bullpen. They don’t have the option to send him down to Triple-A, where he could stay stretched out and ready for his next big league opportunity. It’s not that the Phillies don’t have room for Walker in their bullpen; he would almost surely be an upgrade over Carlos Hernández. The eighth man in Philadelphia’s arm barn has given up eight runs in 11 innings, striking out eight and walking seven. His 10.01 Statcast xERA is among the worst in the sport. The concern is that Walker wouldn’t be as effective yo-yoing between the bullpen and rotation as he is right now after having had a full spring training to prepare as a starter. A six-man rotation would allow the Phillies to keep Walker stretched out and pitching on a consistent schedule.

A six-man rotation would also give the rest of Philadelphia’s starters some additional rest, which could prove critical in helping them all stay at full strength down the stretch and (potentially) into October. This isn’t an option for most teams because it’s hard enough to find five MLB-caliber starters, let alone six. It would make sense for the Phillies to take advantage of this unusual opportunity for as long as they have a surplus of healthy arms.

Of course, a six-man rotation has its downsides, too. For one, it would lead to fewer starts for the Phillies’ best pitchers. In other words, it would diminish what has been the team’s greatest strength so far this season. What’s more, the Phillies have two off days coming up in the next two weeks (May 5 and 15). With a six-man rotation, there would be times when their starters were waiting a full week between outings. It’s fair to wonder if that’s too much time off. Rest is good. Rust is not. It is also important to think of the ramifications a six-man rotation would have on the bullpen. Philadelphia’s bullpen has struggled enough this season as it is, producing a 5.03 ERA and eight blown saves. Those numbers might be even worse if they’d had to split the 98 1/3 innings they’ve pitched so far between seven arms instead of eight. The team could ameliorate this problem somewhat by cycling through the optionable arms at the bottom of the 40-man roster or taking full advantage of the waiver wire, but that’s hardly the smartest bullpen strategy long-term.

Lastly, the Phillies need to consider the Andrew Painter of it all. The top prospect in the organization and one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, the 22-year-old righty is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. His goal is to make his MLB debut at some point this summer. If everyone else is healthy when Painter gets the call, that could be the ideal time for the Phillies to switch to a six-man rotation. They could push their starters a little harder now with the understanding that some respite would be coming later in the season.

Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham recently told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber, “We’re okay with not chasing a win today to win a bunch of games down the road.” While he wasn’t directly addressing the idea of a six-man rotation when he spoke those words, he nonetheless did a good job laying out the argument for such a strategy. One or two fewer starts from arms like Wheeler, Sánchez, Luzardo, Nola, and Suárez early in the season could mean more starts (and better starts) from all of them when it matters more. Moreover, keeping Walker in the rotation now could help prevent depth issues down the line. With that said, the argument against a six-man rotation is robust, and the most recent reporting suggests it’s still unlikely.

So, what do MLBTR readers think? Would the Phillies be smart to try out a six-man rotation, even just temporarily? Or would they be better off sticking with a traditional five-man set-up and moving Walker to the bullpen? Have your say in today’s poll:

Should the Phillies go with a six-man rotation when Ranger Suárez returns?
No 42.08% (664 votes)
Yes, but only temporarily 33.65% (531 votes)
Yes 24.27% (383 votes)
Total Votes: 1,578

 

Photos courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images.

Poll: Can Ben Rice Keep This Up?

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Yesterday, Yankees slugger Ben Rice enjoyed a three-hit game that saw him slug two homers. It was a great game, but that’s become almost commonplace for the 26-year-old through the season’s first month. After making his big league debut at first base while filling in for Anthony Rizzo last summer, Rice entered Spring Training this year in the mix for a bench spot as a pinch-hitter and backup catcher behind Austin Wells. An injury to Giancarlo Stanton created an opportunity for regular playing time, however, and Rice was chosen to take those regular reps.

He’s certainly making the most of the opportunity, having done nothing but rake since the season began. In 106 plate appearances this year, Rice has slashed an incredible .278/.387/.611 (184 wRC+). Rice has clobbered eight homers already, leaving him tied for the ninth-most long balls in the majors and just two behind Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh for the major league lead. Sandwiched between those two and Rice with nine homers is Aaron Judge, for whom Rice’s emergence has created the sort of protection in the lineup that Juan Soto offered him last season. If comparing the 26-year-old’s early season production to Soto’s 2024 campaign sounds hyperbolic, it isn’t; Rice’s aforementioned 184 wRC+ currently makes him the fourth-best qualified hitter in baseball and second only to Judge in the AL. Soto’s 180 wRC+ last year made him the third-best qualified hitter in baseball and second only to Judge in the AL.

The question for Rice, however, is how sustainable this hot start will prove to be. The Yankees would surely love for Rice to emerge as star-level bat both for this season and the long-term, when he could take over for Paul Goldschmidt as the club’s regular first baseman. This isn’t the first time Rice has come out of the gates with a hot start, however, as his cup of coffee last year started with a 24-game, 92-PA stretch where he hit an impressive .228/.315/.494 with six homers. That start proved to be unsustainable for him, as he hit a paltry .110/.209/.192 the rest of the way to finish as a well below-average hitter overall across his 50 games in the majors.

In that 24-game stretch of success last year, Rice struck out at a 22.8% clip, walked 12.0% of the time, and posted an incredible 20.0% barrel rate. Those are all solid peripherals, though his 38.3% hard-hit rate was somewhat concerning and helped to explain his lackluster .222 BABIP. That’s especially true when combined with his 50% fly ball rate over that stretch; while elevating the ball often helps with homers, leading to the aforementioned massive barrel rate, softly-hit fly balls are the worst type of contact a hitter can make. That weak contact in the air led to very few balls dropping in for hits, and once the home runs stopped coming his overall production cratered.

How does Rice’s start to 2025 measure up to last year’s hot start? The signs are mixed in that regard. His strikeout rate (24.5%) has actually gotten worse, and his walk rate (12.3%) is mostly stagnant. The real story here can be found in his batted ball data. Rice’s 21.9% barrel rate is phenomenal, but not a massive change from the 20.0% figure he put up during last year’s hot streak. However, Rice is making loud contact much more consistently so far this year. His hard-hit rate has jumped up to a phenomenal 62.5%, good for second in all of baseball this year behind Oneil Cruz’s 62.7% and slightly ahead of Shohei Ohtani’s 62.3%.

Hitting the ball hard that consistently is obviously a good thing, but the hard contact has come at the cost of Rice elevating the ball much less than he was last year. His 15.6% line drive rate is down five points from last year and his 35.9% fly ball rate is down eight points; consequently, that’s led to a 13-point spike in his ground ball rate, which now sits at 48.4%. That huge grounder rate may seem like it would limit Rice’s power, and that’s true to a least some extent. Even so, plenty of hitters have emerged as legitimate power threats over the years despite hitting the ball on the ground a lot as long as they hit the ball hard enough to send it out when they do elevate. Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the players who posted big seasons last year despite ground ball rates in a similar range as Rice. What’s more, advanced metrics generally seem to buy that Rice has earned his production so far. His .428 wOBA this year is virtually identical to his .425 xwOBA.

How much do MLBTR readers believe in Rice’s offensive explosion to open the season? Have the Yankees found another star slugger to pair with Judge in the middle of their lineup, or will this hot start prove to be a flash in the pan like last year? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Ben Rice finish the season?
Rice won't be able to maintain All-Star caliber production, but he'll still finish the year as a quality everyday player. 55.44% (1,559 votes)
Rice will mostly maintain his hot start and post an All-Star caliber campaign in 2025. 29.91% (841 votes)
Rice will regress badly as he did last year and appear miscast as an everyday player in the majors by season's end. 14.65% (412 votes)
Total Votes: 2,812

Poll: Should The Rangers Be Worried About Marcus Semien?

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On balance, Rangers fans are surely happy that the club signed Marcus Semien prior to the 2022 season. After all, his second year with the club saw him make the AL All-Star team, finish as a finalist for the AL MVP award for the third time in his career, and join the rest of the Rangers in hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy after bringing home the first World Series championship in franchise history. Flags fly forever, so in a sense that surprising seven-year, $175MM contract that Texas brass shelled out to convince Semien to join a team coming off a 102-loss season is already a resounding success.

Perhaps that’s a good thing, as Semien has shown some worrying signs as he enters his mid-thirties. Last season represented a notable step back from his star-level production thanks primarily to a down season at the plate. In 159 games for the Rangers last year, the veteran hit .237/.308/.391 with a 99 wRC+. It was a step back from the 126 wRC+ he had posted the previous year, but hardly out of the ordinary. 2024 was the seventh year in a row where Semien had alternated a relatively average offensive season with one where he mustered up enough offense to finish third in AL MVP voting. It’s a trend that stretched across three different teams, starting during his time in Oakland in 2018 with a pedestrian season that he followed up by crushing a then career-high 33 homers in 2019.

The trend continued when he suffered a down season during the 60-game 2020 campaign, though Semien came roaring back with a 45-homer season and 6.0 fWAR in 2021 as a member of the Blue Jays. That was the platform campaign Semien put together ahead of his decision to sign with the Rangers, and overall the first three years of that deal have been successful overall with a .254/.320/.433 (111 wRC+) with 14.8 fWAR. Despite his pedestrian season offensively last year, Semien still managed to piece together a four-win campaign thanks to him offering some of the most defensive value in the entire sport with his work at second base. Among all qualified players regardless of position last year, Semien’s +19 Outs Above Average were eclipsed by only fellow second baseman Andres Gimenez. His Fielding Run Value was similarly impressive, as his +14 figure was tied with Gimenez for the league lead among all infielders.

That sort of wizardry with the glove can make up for a pedestrian bat, but it can’t make up for the sort of numbers Semien has put up in 2025 so far. In Semien’s first 115 plate appearances this year, he’s hit a paltry .155/.226/.223, good for a 30 wRC+. That’s 70% worse than league average, and the third-weakest offensive performance in the majors among qualified hitters so far this year. That sort of offensive production is nearly impossible to make up for with the glove and on the bases, and that’s assuming Semien can replicate his elite defense from last year despite being just a few months shy of his 35th birthday. With three years and $72MM still remaining on his contract after this year, Semien’s age and brutal start to the season are clear causes for worry in Texas.

Fortunately, Semien’s underlying offensive numbers do provide reason for at least some optimism. Semien’s .175 BABIP won’t stay more than 100 points below his career mark (.281) all year long. In the power department, his 8.1% barrel rate is actually the highest he’s posted since his 45-homer campaign with the Blue Jays back in 2021, though his 31.7% hard-hit rate is the lowest its been in a 162-game season since 2017. The more concerning metrics are those regarding his plate discipline. While Semien’s 8.7% walk rate is largely unchanged from last year’s 8.9% figure, his strikeout rate jumped from 14.6% in each of the past two seasons to 20.0% so far in 2025.

That increase in strikeouts has been due to an increase in whiffs, especially outside of the strike zone. Semien’s swinging strike rate this year is up to 10.9%, a full two points higher than his career mark of 8.9% and the highest he’s posted since his 21-game cup of coffee with the White Sox back in 2013. When looking at pitches outside of the strike zone, Semien is making contact just 45.5% of the time, down more than ten points from last year. Even though Semien can expect some positive regression in the power and BABIP departments, his newfound issues with whiffs outside of the strike zone could limit his ability to be an above-average bat in the majors if not corrected.

How do MLBTR readers think Semien’s 2025 season will play out? A rebound on at least some level appears all but guaranteed, given that Billy Hunter of the 1953 St. Louis Browns is the last player to post a 30 wRC+ or lower while qualifying for the batting title. The real question appears to be whether Semien will be able to get his offense back to a level that would allow his defense to make him an above-average major leaguer. Have your say in the poll below:

What's in store for Marcus Semien this year?
He'll bounce back enough to be an average or better player overall, though his offense will remain below average (99 wRC+ or lower). 42.97% (1,388 votes)
He'll continue to struggle badly enough that he's a below-average player overall at the end of the year. 28.92% (934 votes)
Semien will bounce back strongly enough to post an at least average offensive season (100 wRC+ or higher). 28.11% (908 votes)
Total Votes: 3,230

Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL East

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL East. Only three teams in the division have such options, though Atlanta’s group of decisions involve some of the more notable players in the class.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central, AL Central

Atlanta Braves

This is the final guaranteed season of the $35MM extension which Albies signed early in 2019. The deal was widely considered a massively team-friendly contract the day it happened, and that has proven to be the case. Albies has made a pair of All-Star teams, won two Silver Slugger Awards, and twice found his name on MVP ballots over the course of the deal.

There’s no intrigue to this one. The Braves will exercise the option, which ends up being a $3MM investment after factoring in the $4MM buyout. There will be another $7MM club option (with no buyout) for 2027 that will probably be a similarly easy call. Albies’ offense has declined over the past two seasons, as he’s hitting just .246/.300/.398 in 553 plate appearances since the start of 2024. The $3MM difference between the option price and the buyout is low-end utility player money, though. Even if the Braves start to question whether Albies remains the answer at second base, there’d be surplus trade value.

Atlanta signed Arcia to a three-year, $7.3MM extension on the eve of the 2023 season. It looked like an odd move at the time, an unnecessary multi-year commitment for a likely utility infielder. Then Arcia broke out with an All-Star season while replacing Dansby Swanson as Atlanta’s everyday shortstop. The contract looked like a major coup for the front office.

Things have swung back in the opposite direction over the past year-plus. Arcia’s bat cratered last year, as he turned in a .218/.271/.354 line over 602 plate appearances. While the Braves stuck with him as their starting shortstop, he’s lost that role with a dismal start to the ’25 season. Arcia has hit .200 with eight strikeouts, one walk, and one extra-base hit (a double) through 31 trips. Nick Allen jumped him on the depth chart and has started the past five games. Arcia wouldn’t need to do much to convince the Braves to exercise an option that amounts to a $1MM decision, but he’s no longer a lock to even stick on the roster all season.

Johnson dominated over 24 appearances after being acquired from the Rockies at the 2023 deadline. The righty would have been one of the better setup men in the following free agent class, but the Braves signed him to a two-year extension with a $14.25MM guarantee to keep him off the market. He has made consecutive $7MM salaries and has a matching club option with a $250K buyout for next season.

It has worked out nicely. Johnson fired 56 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with a strong 28.4% strikeout rate last year. He has punched out 10 while allowing four runs through 9 1/3 frames to begin this season. His whiffs are slightly down, while opponents are making more hard contact than they did a season ago. Those are worth monitoring, but Johnson’s overall body of work in Atlanta consists of a 2.89 earned run average with 109 strikeouts over 89 1/3 innings. As of now, a $6.75MM price point seems like solid value.

Sale’s first season in Atlanta was brilliant. He posted an MLB-best 2.38 ERA while leading the National League with 225 strikeouts. He won his first career Cy Young award after finishing in the top six on seven occasions earlier in his career. He reestablished himself as an ace following some injury-plagued years. The trade in which he was acquired from the Red Sox for struggling second baseman Vaughn Grissom has been a steal.

The left-hander’s uneven start to 2025 has contributed to the Braves’ mediocre April. Sale has allowed 5.40 earned runs per nine through his first six outings. They’ve gone 3-3 in those contests. It’s largely the product of an inflated .400 batting average on balls in play against him. Sale’s 27.3% strikeout rate is down nearly five percentage points relative to last season, but it remains a well above-average mark for a starting pitcher. He’s getting whiffs on 12.9% of his offerings. His slider has been as lethal as ever. Opponents have feasted on his fastball so far, but there’s no dramatic change in velocity or spin. While the poor start has probably tanked his chance of repeating as the Cy Young winner, the $18MM option still seems like an easy “yes” for the front office.

Miami Marlins

  • None

New York Mets

Over the weekend, Raley reportedly agreed to terms with the Mets on a one-year deal with a club option. The signing has not been finalized, nor has the money been reported. Raley is working back from last May’s Tommy John surgery.

The Mets also re-signed Smith on a one-year deal with an option after TJS — a July operation, in his case. He’s making $1MM for what will probably be a completely lost season. The Mets get an affordable $2MM option for next season that they’re likely to exercise so long as Smith doesn’t suffer a setback. If they do pick it up, he could earn another $750K based on his appearance total next season. Smith would make $50K apiece at 30, 35, and 40 appearances; $75K for 45 and 50 games; $100K at 55 and 60 appearances; and $125K each for 65 and 70 games. He owns a 3.48 ERA over parts of six seasons as a quality middle reliever for New York.

Philadelphia Phillies

Alvarado signed for two years and $18.55MM in new money on a deal covering the 2024-25 seasons. He has made $9MM salaries in each of the past two years and has a matching option with a $500K buyout. That’s a little below the market rate for high-leverage relievers, which Alvarado has proven himself to be.

Over parts of five seasons with the Phils, the lefty carries a 3.34 earned run average. Bouts of wildness have led to some inconsistency, but he’s shown the ability to miss bats at plus rates while throwing as hard as any left-hander in the sport. Alvarado’s 24.4% strikeout rate last season was oddly pedestrian, but he’s fanned nearly 30% of batters faced in his career.

He has been back at peak form to begin this season. He has punched out 18 of 56 hitters (32.1%) while allowing only three runs through 13 2/3 innings. Alvarado has collected five saves and a pair of holds without blowing a lead, and he’s operating with career-best control (3.6% walk rate). It’s tough to envision him continuing to throw this many strikes — he walked more than 10% of opponents in seven consecutive years leading up to this one — but he’s the Phils’ most trusted reliever right now. This is tending towards an easy pickup.

Shortly before Opening Day last year, Strahm preemptively signed a one-year extension covering the 2025 season. The lefty is making $7.5MM this year and has a club/vesting option for next season. It begins as a $4.5MM team option. The price would jump by $1MM apiece if he reaches 40, 50 and 60 innings pitched this year. If he hits 60 innings and passes a postseason physical, it vests at $7.5MM. It’s a straight vesting option, not one with an opt-out, so Strahm would return on a guaranteed deal if it triggers.

That’s a result with which the Phillies would probably be happy. Strahm turned in an excellent ’24 campaign, working to a 1.87 ERA while striking out a third of opposing hitters over 66 appearances. He has fanned 15 through his first 11 2/3 frames this year. Strahm has surrendered five runs, four earned, on 11 hits and four walks. His 91.8 MPH average four-seam fastball is down from last season’s 93.4 mark, which is a little alarming, but the results have been solid and he remains one of the more reliable setup options for skipper Rob Thomson.

Washington Nationals

  • None

Poll: Will Cedric Mullins Sustain His Hot Start?

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There wasn’t much for Orioles fans to be excited about back in 2021, as they ultimately lost 110 games that season. Center fielder Cedric Mullins was the exception to that, however, as the then-26-year-old broke out in a big way that year with a .291/.360/518 slash line in 159 games while playing strong defense in center. Flash forward to 2025 and while the Orioles are certainly not going to lose 110 games, their fans are once again staring down disappointment as their 10-17 record puts them dead last in the AL East. Amid that disappointment, however, Mullins is once again emerging as a bright spot.

Now in his age-30 season, the club’s center fielder is putting on by far the best offensive performance of his career. He’s slashing .279/.421/.547 in his first 107 trips to the plate, production that’s good for an incredible 185 wRC+. His six home runs put him on pace for a career-best mark over a full season, and he’s pairing that surge in power with a massive 17.8% walk rate while maintaining a fairly low 19.6% strikeout rate. He remains an impressive baserunner as well, with five stolen bases in six attempts, and that entire offensive package has been paired with his typically-stellar defense.

In all, it’s the sort of scorching start that would be MVP-caliber if maintained over a full season; only Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have posted more fWAR than Mullins in the AL this year. That sort of season would not only help the Orioles get back into the conversation for a playoff spot, but it would be game-changing for Mullins himself ahead of his first foray into free agency this winter. In a free agent class that has long looked relatively light on quality offensive options, a strong offensive season for Mullins could earn him quite the raise on the open market as was the case for fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar this past offseason following their own strong walk years.

Just how feasible is it for Mullins to maintain this production? Some of it certainly looks sustainable. He’s posting a career-high in hard-hit rate (40.0%) while posting his best barrel rate (7.7%) since his 30-homer campaign in 2021, so there’s some reason for optimism about his power increase. His .305 BABIP is within spitting distance of his .290 career mark, and a 20.3% line drive rate (his best since 2020) provides an easy explanation for the slight increase. In general, Mullins is elevating the ball more than he ever has before in his career with a ground ball rate of just 26.6% and a launch angle of 24.1 degrees, both career-best marks. With that said, his aforementioned barrel and hard-hit rates are both still below league average and seem unlikely to keep generating homers at quite this level and his .423 expected slugging percentage is more than 100 points below his actual figure.

While the sustainability of Mullins’ newfound power is questionable, his improved plate discipline is backed up by underlying numbers. Mullins is swinging just 42.1% of the time, the lowest figure he’s posted since his debut season in 2018, and most of that patience has come against pitches outside of the zone. He’s swinging at balls outside the strike zone just 20.7% of the time, and he’s combined that with a knack for making contact on pitches in the zone, connecting on 90.8% of his in-zone swings. It’s led to a swinging-strike rate of just 7.5% so far this year and, while his gargantuan 17.8% walk rate will almost certainly come down at some point, it’s easy to imagine this sort of approach resulting in a career-best walk rate for Mullins, who walked in just 8.1% of his career plate appearances entering this season.

While some regression appears all but guaranteed to come for Mullins eventually, there’s enough real improvements to his approach that it’s not hard to imagine him matching or perhaps even surpassing his career-best 2021 campaign. Mullins’ .366 xwOBA, while nearly 60 points below his current wOBA, is actually 22 points higher than his 2021 figure and by far the best of his career. That expected number puts Mullins in the same ballpark as players like Witt, Seiya Suzuki, and Francisco Lindor this year, and it’s in line with the production of Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, and Corey Seager at the plate last season.

How do MLBTR readers think Mullins’ platform season will play out? Will he enter free agency coming off of a career year, end up in line with his 2021 numbers, or regress back to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Cedric Mullins perform in 2025?
He'll post a season more or less in line with his career-best 2021 season (136 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR) 40.90% (670 votes)
He'll regress to his career norms by the end of the season (107 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR) 38.46% (630 votes)
He'll post the best season of his career, eclipsing 2021. 20.63% (338 votes)
Total Votes: 1,638

Poll: Should Nick Pivetta’s Hot Start Be Believed?

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Right-hander Nick Pivetta languished for quite some time on the free agent market after he turned down a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox in search of a multi-year deal. The 32-year-old wound up being one of the final pitchers to come off the board this winter. He ultimately signed with the Padres on a four-year, $55MM pact that comes with some protection for the club against Pivetta undergoing significant elbow surgery. That relatively low-cost deal seemingly wouldn’t have been difficult for another club to beat this offseason, and so far Pivetta has made the rotation-needy clubs who passed on him look foolish.

In his first five starts this year, Pivetta has pitched to a 1.20 ERA across 30 frames. He’s struck out 27.0% of his opponents, walked just 6.3%, and made it through seven full innings in the majority of his appearances. For years, Pivetta has been viewed around baseball as a potential breakout arm with electric stuff despite never quite putting it together across a full season in the majors, with a career 4.66 ERA and 4.30 FIP. That led the Phillies to deal him to the Red Sox back in 2020, and that led Boston brass to shuffle Pivetta between the bullpen and rotation during the 2023 season. Even his best seasons with the Red Sox from 2021 to 2024 saw him pitch to a middling 4.33 ERA and 4.20 FIP. Could the veteran’s long-anticipated breakout have finally arrived in his first year with San Diego?

The possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand. After all, Pivetta’s success has come in spite of two his his five starts coming against the Cubs, who sport the NL’s best offense and the most runs scored in all of baseball to this point in the calendar. His first start against Chicago was a lackluster one, with three runs allowed in three innings of work, but his second time facing the club saw him strike six batters out while walking just one with one run allowed in six innings of work. Combine that with the seven scoreless innings he twirled against the Tigers and their own top-10 offense in the sport so far, and it’s hard to say Pivetta has coasted through an easy schedule so far this year.

With that being said, there hasn’t been much in the way of drastic changes. Pivetta’s 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate this year are both better than his career norms, but weaker than last year’s figures of 28.9% and 6.3% respectively. His fastball velocity also remains virtually unchanged from last year, when he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP across 145 2/3 innings of work. That lack of tangible change is a potential red flag that suggests this dominance won’t continue, as are Pivetta’s .205 BABIP allowed, 88% strand rate, and 2.9% home run-to-fly ball ratio.

All of those figures as well out of line with not only Pivetta’s career norms but what can be expected for MLB hurlers in general. Pivetta’s HR/FB is particularly noteworthy, however, as home runs have been the righty’s primary bugaboo throughout his career. Pivetta has allowed the fifth highest number of home runs since he arrived in the majors back in 2017 among all pitchers. Among those with at least 800 innings of work since then, Pivetta’s home run rate is also the fifth-highest, while his home run-to-fly ball ratio is ninth-highest. The long ball has always been what’s held Pivetta back throughout his career, but he’s allowed just one home run in his first five starts.

While this year’s level of home run suppression is all but impossible to imagine being sustainable, the underlying metrics do suggest that Pivetta has done better than usual in terms of keeping the barrel off the ball. His 8.1% barrel rate so far this year would be the lowest he’s posted in any season since 2018 if maintained over a full season, and he’s currently sporting a 37.8% hard-hit rate that would be his lowest since 2019. Combine that with the lowest average exit velocity and highest infield fly ball rate of his career, and it’s not hard to see why Pivetta’s allowing less home runs than ever. Regression back to the mean must be expected, but there’s at least some signs that the veteran could allow fewer homers this year than he has in any of his previous full seasons of work.

On yet another hand, there are generally more home runs in the warmer months. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Pivetta’s career splits form a sort of bell curve, with his ERA lower in the spring and fall but higher in the summer. He has a career 4.01 ERA in March/April, then 4.34 in May, 4.66 in June, 5.11 in July, 6.02 in August, then 3.84 in September/October. As the weather heats up, all pitchers have a harder time keeping the ball in the park, which could be especially noteworthy for Pivetta.

Do MLBTR readers believe in his strong start or is the right-hander going to come back down to Earth eventually? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Nick Pivetta finish the year?
Pivetta will continue to dominate and enjoy the best season of his career in 2025. 53.18% (1,287 votes)
Pivetta will regress to the mean and post a season similar to those he posted from 2021 to 2024. 46.82% (1,133 votes)
Total Votes: 2,420

The D-backs’ Late-Blooming Slugger

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The D-backs moved on from Joc Pederson this past offseason, bidding farewell to a slugger who made 132 appearances at designated hitter for them in 2024 and turned in an outstanding .275/.393/.515 slash in 449 plate appearances. Pederson was limited to 42 plate appearances against left-handed pitching but was a mainstay in the lineup against right-handed opponents. He torched righties at a .281/.392/.531 clip -- 54% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

Arizona spent more than anyone expected this past offseason, but the vast majority of that spending came in the form of their stunning six-year, $210MM signing of right-hander Corbin Burnes. That marked the largest contract in franchise history, helping push payroll to record levels. The rest of the front office's moves were understandably on the smaller side, at least in terms of financial commitment. A trade for Josh Naylor replaced Christian Walker at first base for about half the 2025 price (and one-sixth of the overall financial commitment). Re-signing Randal Grichuk cost another $5MM. Relievers Kendall Graveman and Jalen Beeks signed for under $2MM apiece.

Pederson's two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers was announced on the same day as Burnes' deal with the Diamondbacks. Based on the totality of Arizona's offseason, it'd be fair to presume that signing both simply wasn't in the budget. Perhaps, however, the D-backs felt comfortable moving on from Pederson because they bought into the out-of-the-blue breakout from another lefty slugger on the roster.

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Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central

Chicago White Sox

Pérez signed a $5MM free agent deal to serve as the veteran presence in a very young White Sox rotation. Chicago hoped he’d pitch well enough in the first half to net a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline. Pérez was reasonably effective through his first three starts, but he came out of his fourth outing with forearm discomfort. A flexor strain diagnosis immediately sent him to the 60-day injured list. He’s expected to avoid surgery but will miss almost the entire season. A deadline trade is off the table, and he’ll be bought out at season’s end.

As recently as a few months ago, Robert’s $20MM club option looked like excellent value, as did the matching option for 2026. He was a down-ballot MVP performer in 2023, when he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers while playing plus center field defense. The ’24 campaign was a struggle. Robert missed nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Chicago held him into this year rather than sell low in an offseason trade.

That put a lot of pressure on Robert to hit early in the year. An excellent few months could make him one of the top position players available at the deadline. A terrible start might tank what remained of his trade value. The early returns are disastrous: .138/.255/.238 with 30 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances. There’s still time for a turnaround, but Robert may be following in the footsteps of Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez — players whose once team-friendly extensions soured to the point that they were traded for meager returns and/or bought out.

Cleveland Guardians

Means underwent UCL surgery last June. That was his second such procedure within the past three years. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery in 2022 and had only just returned before his elbow gave out again. The Guardians took a $1MM flier in free agency. The deal includes a $6MM team option for next season. Means is hoping to return to the mound in August or September. His late-season form will determine whether Cleveland wants to keep him around next year.

If the Guardians exercise the option, Means could unlock up to $2.5MM in performance bonuses. He’d earn $75K apiece at 20, 30, 40 and 50 innings pitched next year. That climbs to $100K each for 60, 70, 80 and 90 frames; $125K at 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings; and $150K apiece for 140 and 150 frames.

Sewald had a pair of above-average seasons as Seattle’s closer between 2022-23. His production started to trend down after a ’23 deadline deal that sent him to Arizona. Sewald remained generally productive through the Snakes’ surprising World Series run that year. Last season was his worst since his 2021 breakout. He allowed a 4.31 ERA with declining velocity through 39 2/3 innings. The Guardians surprisingly guaranteed him $7MM to deepen an already excellent bullpen. The veteran righty has punched out 13 hitters through 10 1/3 frames, but he has already surrendered three homers while averaging just 90.2 MPH on his fastball.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit added Brebbia on a $2.75MM contract early in Spring Training. It was a roll of the dice on the veteran righty’s intriguing swing-and-miss rates. Brebbia had allowed nearly six earned runs per nine innings last season (mostly with the White Sox), but he punched out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. Things have reversed early in his Detroit tenure. Brebbia has only allowed two runs (one earned) over his first nine innings. His 8.8% swinging strike rate is well below average, though, and he’s given out eight free passes — five walks and three hit batters.

Brebbia is working in low-leverage situations that suggest he’s towards the bottom of the bullpen depth chart. He’ll need to turn around his underlying numbers to pitch his way into more meaningful spots and, eventually, to convince the front office to exercise the option.

Brebbia could push the option price by another $4MM based on his performance this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone. He has finished six of eight appearances so far.

Urquidy’s situation is similar to that of Means. The former Astros righty required Tommy John surgery last June. Houston waived him at the end of the season. He reunited with A.J. Hinch in Detroit on a $1MM contract. Urquidy won’t be an option until the final few weeks of the season in a best case scenario. Detroit can gauge his progress to determine whether they want to retain him at a $4MM base value. Urquidy could tack on another $3MM if the Tigers exercise the option: $150K each at four and seven starts next year; $300K apiece for 10, 13, 16 and 19 starts; and $500K each at 22, 25 and 28 starts.

Kansas City Royals

  • Michael Lorenzen, RHP ($12MM mutual option, $1.5M buyout if team declines its end)

Kansas City brought Lorenzen back on a $7MM free agent deal. He’s playing on a $5.5MM salary and would collect a $1.5MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option assuming the Royals decline their end. He grabbed a season-opening rotation spot with both Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright on the shelf. Lorenzen has had a customary start to the season. He carried a 4.57 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate into this evening’s appearance against the Rockies. He’s through five scoreless innings against Colorado at the time of this writing.

Perez is making $22MM in the final season of the four-year extension that he signed in March 2021. At the time, it was the largest contract in organizational history. (Bobby Witt Jr. has since shattered that record.) Perez is a franchise stalwart, of course, but it was still surprising to see the Royals guarantee him $82MM for his age 32-35 seasons — especially given the heavy workloads he’d taken throughout his career.

The nine-time All-Star has rewarded the team’s faith. He led the majors with 48 homers and 121 RBI in 2021, though he was already under contract for that season anyhow. He combined for a .261/.307/.447 slash over the first three seasons of the extension. Perez eclipsed 20 home runs in each, and he won the AL Silver Slugger Award behind the dish with a .271/.330/.456 showing during last year’s playoff season.

Perez has started this season more slowly. He entered today’s doubleheader with a .185/.235/.293 line, though he has picked up four doubles over two games against Colorado pitching. If this continues all season, the Royals could face a tough decision, but the safer bet right now is that Kansas City will exercise the option. It’s tough to imagine Perez playing anywhere else.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota added Bader on a $6.25MM contract amidst a quiet offseason. They’ve preferred to have a capable right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who can reduce Byron Buxton’s workload in center field while complementing their lefty-hitting corner bats. Bader has started 18 of the team’s first 25 games. He’s hitting .230/.319/.393 with a trio of home runs through 69 plate appearances. It’s an early improvement over last year’s .236/.284/.373 showing, but it’s unlikely the Twins would exercise their end of a $10MM option.

The bigger factor might be Bader’s semi-regular playing time. He could push the buyout price as high as $3MM based on this season’s plate appearance total. It has a $1.5MM base value and would climb by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500.

Note: Justin Topa’s arbitration contract contains a $2MM club option or a $225K buyout for next season. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines the option, as he will not have reached six years of service time.

Poll: Can Willson Contreras Get Back On Track?

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When the Cardinals announced over the offseason that they were moving Willson Contreras to first base, it came as something of a surprise given that they we just two years into a five-year deal they gave him to fill the shoes Yadier Molina had stood in for the past 19 years. Signing a bat-first catcher to replace one of the best defenders in baseball history behind the dish was a bold move, and while Contreras hit an excellent .263/.367/.468 (129 wRC+) in his first two seasons as a Cardinal, his tenure behind the plate did not come without controversy. St. Louis moved him off catcher briefly during his first season with the club after complaints about his glove. Last year, he missed time with a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a swing after the organization suggested he move closer to the plate to improve his defense.

If those controversies set the table for the decision to move Contreras away from catching, the departure of incumbent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the Bronx this winter and the club’s two up-and-coming catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages making solid cases for more playing time made the possibility that much more realistic. After all, a position change for Contreras would allow the Cardinals to make some progress on their desired youth movement without needing to pull off a trade, and there was at least a possibility that Contreras’s strong bat from his first two seasons with the club could blossom even further if he didn’t need to split his focus between hitting and catching.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things have gone so far. In 24 games this season, Contreras has slashed just .200/.269/.305 this year. That leaves him with a 62 wRC+ that’s not only well below average but also extremely uncharacteristic of him. While questions about Contreras’s defensive abilities have dogged him since the early days of his MLB career with the Cubs, his bat has never been in doubt as he’s posted above-average numbers at the plate by wRC+ in every single year of his career until now. A .258/.353/.461 (121 wRC+) hitter for his career, Contreras had elevated his game to another level since the start of the 2022 season with a .256/.367/.467 (133 wRC+) line across the past three seasons.

Has all of that changed in his age-33 season? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a catcher in his early-to-mid 30s suffered a sudden and drastic decline, although moving to first base should at least theoretically help preserve Contreras’s health. The frustrating reality of the veteran’s situation is that, while below-average offense can be acceptable behind the plate, first base is a bat-first position where he’ll need offensive results in order to stick as a regular. That’s even more true with youngsters like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker ready to step in and take their own shots at the first base job if given the opportunity.

As lackluster as Contreras’s work at the dish has been so far this year, it’s not as if all hope is lost. The veteran’s .270 BABIP this year matches his career low, and if it bounces back to something closer to his .309 career level, that would go a long way to lifting his production. Another reason for optimism is that he’s still putting the barrel on the ball fairly often. While his 9.1% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate this year are the lowest figures he’s posted in either category since 2018, they both remain solid. When combined with his top-of-the-line bat speed, it’s easy to imagine Contreras being able to generate more power than he’s shown so far.

On the other hand, Contreras is already more than 100 plate appearances into his first season as a first baseman, and he’s currently matching his career-high in strikeout rate (28.6%) and pairing that with a career-low walk rate of 6.7%. Contreras has always been a bit of a streaky hitter, as exemplified by his 2018 season where he carried a 123 wRC+ into the All-Star break before hitting a paltry .193/.282/.280 across his final 50 games, so it stands to reason that he may well be just one hot streak away from getting back to being the bat he’s shown himself to be throughout his career. Even with that in mind, the signs of declining plate discipline and reduced power are concerning. That’s especially true when combined with his age and the years of wear and tear he accumulated behind the plate.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of the 2025 season will go for Contreras? Will he be able to bounce back and post numbers similar to what he’s offered in each of the last three seasons? Or will his first year as a first baseman be the worst offensive season of his career? Have your say in the poll below:

How will Willson Contreras perform for the rest of the year?
Contreras will rebound enough to be a roughly average hitter, but not post the impactful numbers he's offered in recent years. 41.34% (1,156 votes)
Contreras will bounce back and post a strong final line close to that of his previous seasons with the Cardinals. 34.37% (961 votes)
Contreras's down season will continue and he'll post the first below-average season of his career. 24.28% (679 votes)
Total Votes: 2,796
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