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Camp Battles: Boston’s Rotation

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Boston’s season-opening rotation is going to look quite a bit different than we could have imagined just a few weeks ago. Gone is left-hander David Price, whom the Red Sox traded to the Dodgers less than a month ago. Fellow southpaw Chris Sale – the team’s No. 1 starter – is still in the fold, but he’ll open the campaign on the 15-day injured list as a result of a pneumonia that has slowed him this spring. Price’s departure and the temporary absence of Sale leaves the Red Sox with just three hurlers – Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez – who are shoo-ins to begin 2020 in their rotation. So, even if not for Sale’s illness, they’d still be looking for someone to claim a spot in their rotation in the coming weeks.

Boston’s led by chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who used to be an executive with a Tampa Bay team that spearheaded the opener strategy. Manager Ron Roenicke admitted last week the Red Sox could mimic the AL East rival Rays in that regard (via Chad Jennings of The Athletic; subscription link).

“We can do (an opener) with two spots in the rotation,” Roenicke said. “But we’ll see if someone emerges and covers one of those spots (as a traditional starter).”

If the Red Sox do want to find at least one more conventional starter before the season, and if they’re not going to venture outside the organization to get one (which is a possibility), whom could they turn to from within? Let’s take a look at some of their options…

  • Ryan Weber, RHP: The 29-year-old Weber has pitched in the majors for the Braves, Mariners, Rays and Red Sox since 2015, but he hasn’t experienced much success in the bigs. Weber’s fastball averaged under 89 mph last year as a member of the Red Sox, with whom he struggled to a 5.09 ERA (with a much better 4.20 FIP) and 6.42 K/9, 1.77 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent groundball rate across a career-high 40 2/3 innings. While Weber worked mostly as a reliever in 2019, the Red Sox are optimistic about his chances of turning into a capable starter or at least a bulk pitcher, thanks to increased reliance on a cutter.
  • Chris Mazza, RHP: Mazza debuted in MLB last season with the Mets at the age of 29, but he yielded 10 earned runs on 21 hits during that 16 1/3-inning span. To Mazza’s credit, he was far better last year in Triple-A, where he put up a 3.67 ERA/3.85 FIP with 7.34 K/9, 2.13 BB/9 and a lofty 58 percent groundball rate across 76 frames.The Mets cut Mazza loose after the season, and he ended up with the Red Sox via waivers.
  • Mike Shawaryn, RHP: Shawaryn, 25, was a fifth-rounder of the Red Sox in 2016 who climbed to the majors for the first time last season. It didn’t go well; even though Shawaryn racked up 29 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings, he surrendered 22 earned runs on 26 hits and issued 13 walks. And he wasn’t great with Triple-A Pawtucket, either, evidenced by a 4.52 ERA/5.65 FIP with 7.63 K/9 and 4.92 BB/9 in 89 2/3 frames.
  • Kyle Hart, LHP: A 19th-round pick of the Red Sox in 2016, Hart has consistently prevented runs at a solid clip in the minors, where he has never posted an ERA above the threes at any level. The 27-year-old made his Triple-A debut in 2019 and logged a 3.86 ERA/4.32 FIP with 7.18 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9 over 100 1/3 innings.
  • Hector Velazquez, RHP: The 31-year-old threw upward of 100 effective innings for the Red Sox from 2017-18, but things went downhill last season. Owing in part to a career-worst 4.47 BB/9 and a personal-low 38.6 percent groundball rate, Velazquez ended up with a 5.43 ERA/4.74 FIP in 56 1/3 innings.
  • Matt Hall, LHP: Hall, 26, joined the Red Sox in a minor trade with the Tigers in January. The spin rate darling has enjoyed some success in the minors, shown in part by a 4.25 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 144 Triple-A innings, but has allowed almost 10 runs per nine with 5.17 BB/9 in a smaller sample of major league frames (31 1/3).
  • Phillips Valdez, RHP: Valdez was a waiver pickup from the Mariners just last week. He got his first taste of MLB action with the Rangers a season ago, and while he pitched to a 3.94 ERA, averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine and induced grounders at a 53.3 percent clip, he walked more than five per nine at the same time. And Valdez wasn’t as good at Triple-A, where he recorded a 4.92 ERA/5.59 FIP with 7.44 K/9 and 4.12 BB/9 in 78 2/3 innings of work.
  • Brian Johnson, LHP: Unlike the names listed above, Johnson’s not on Boston’s 40-man roster, meaning he’s facing an especially steep climb to begin the season in the majors. Now 29, Johnson turned in passable numbers as a member of the Red Sox in 2017-18, but health problems helped hold the soft-tossing southpaw to a 6.02 ERA/5.32 FIP in 40 1/3 innings last year, when he walked over five hitters per nine.

If you don’t find Boston’s back-end rotation choices enthralling, it’s hard to blame you. For all we know, though, Bloom will end up going outside for help – something he seems open to doing – whether via free agency, the trade market, waivers or some combination.

How Much Could Yoan Moncada Command In An Extension?

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There have been some rumblings of possible extension talks between the White Sox and young star Yoan Moncada. He didn’t validate the reports but did say he’d be interested in a long-term stay.

This all tracks on paper. The White Sox have long been one of the game’s most aggressive teams when it comes to early-career extensions. Long before recently-inked deals with Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, and Aaron Bummer, the team reached agreements with Chris Sale and Adam Eaton that paid huge dividends.

And Moncada? He’s still just 24 years of age and is one season shy of arbitration. The switch-hitting infielder just turned in a monster 2019 campaign, launching 25 long balls and slashing .315/.367/.548 over 559 plate appearances. He relied upon a .406 BABIP to get there, but that reflected Moncada’s tantalizing combination of pop (97th percentile exit velocity) and wheels (72nd percentile sprint speed).

It’d probably be wise to anticipate some regression, but there’s little denying the validity of the breakout. Moncada just plain stings the baseball and has now proven he can deliver that consistently against big-league pitching. He will probably always swing and miss more than you’d prefer, but he drove down his strikeout rate from about one-third to a much-more-palatable 27.5%. Moncada doesn’t attempt a ton of steals but still clearly grades as a positive on the bases. Metrics have not been consistent on his glovework as he has moved between second and third base, but it seems clear that the tools are there for an average or above-average fielder.

Moncada has always had a thrilling skillset. Now he has shown he knows how to use it against the best pitchers in the game. He’s not yet a top-shelf superstar, but he’s a bona fide franchise building block who could easily become one of the faces of the game.

So … what’s his future worth?

This is a question often faced by teams contemplating how best to capitalize on the presence of high-grade young talent. Worst case, the White Sox will enjoy the rights to control Moncada for four more seasons — beginning with a league-minimum+ 2020 salary with his salary increasing thereafter through the arbitration process. If he sinks, the obligations will go down or even go away if the team decides to cut ties. If he rises, the Sox will pay more but will still enjoy a discount. Should Moncada continue to star but end up missing time due to injury, the club will have to weather his absence but could still recoup some value through reduced future costs.

That’s just how the (collectively bargained) arbitration system works. Players bear quite a lot of risk and their earning upside is tempered, which in many cases provides leverage to teams. Want to capitalize on your talent and early-career production to ensure you’ll earn tens of millions of dollars? Better sign an extension.

This is where things get interesting in the case of Moncada. Only a few players near arbitration eligibility while already sitting on a huge pile of cash. Even the very top draft picks don’t earn eight-figure bonuses. And with international spending caps now in place, young players from abroad no longer command the kinds of huge bonuses that … well, the kind that Moncada himself received back in 2015 when he inked a $31MM deal with the Red Sox (and that actually cost the team twice that amount due to penalties).

Aha. Moncada has already earned quite a lot of money. And he’s now only a season from turning that spigot back on through arbitration. There’s still risk for him. Arbitration places a heavy reliance upon a player’s platform season, so it’s still possible Moncada won’t earn all that much in 2021. And who knows just how things could play out from there. But unlike virtually all of the other players that find themselves in his position at this stage of their careers — even the few that have something like his resume — Moncada already has made one great haul of cash. That removes a major bit of leverage for the White Sox.

This matters more than you might think at first glance. How else do you explain the fact that (as I explained in writing about it at the time) Aaron Nola gave up so much career earnings upside to lock in a $45MM guarantee? (He even had leverage as a former seventh overall pick who had already reached arbitration.) Those that lack substantial bargaining power can go for shockingly cheap prices, as the Braves proved last year when they squeezed excellent young infielder Ozzie Albies. (Yep, I’m kicking a hornet’s nest, but we don’t need to re-litigate this one here.)

Odds are, Moncada won’t be taken to the cleaners. But where might his price tag land?

The White Sox have already charted somewhat new ground with their exceedingly early, reasonably robust promises to Jimenez ($43MM guarantee) and Robert ($50MM). So, they aren’t afraid of being somewhat bold. Moncada obviously has much better bargaining power than did his teammates, making those payouts an easy floor. As for a ceiling … well, it’d be tough to argue that Moncada ought to top Mike Trout’s $144MM deal. That original Trout extension still stands as the highest-ever contract for a non-Super Two player with two or more years of MLB service.

In between those marks, you have nearly $100MM of conceivable negotiating space. Clearly, they’re of limited value as comps, though it’s still useful to start with those kinds of limits. Finding a place in between can be challenging. Other 2+ service-class players have approached that nine figure mark. Carlos Gonzalez was promised $80MM by the Rockies; Hanley Ramirez took a $70MM guarantee from the Marlins. Those are stale comparables, though. In this case, though, there is at least one clear recent market marker that would surely loom large.

This time last year, the Astros locked in Alex Bregman with a $100MM guarantee. The deal paid him for all of his arbitration eligibility and added two seasons of control over would-be free agent campaigns. The Houston organization wasn’t able to add any additional control via options, which is reflective of Bregman’s excellence.

Moncada’s track record falls shy of Bregman’s at the time of the latter’s signing, so you might think the former would be valued at a somewhat lower rate. But we’ve also just seen a big crop of free agent contracts revive player expectations. (Bregman’s deal came on the heels a weak open market.) And Moncada’s aforementioned bonus earnings could help him hold out for that kind of money (if not even more).

All things considered, the Bregman contract seems like a solid target for Moncada’s reps. Whether or Should the White Sox wish to gain the rights to one or more options, they’ll likely have to promise more for the guaranteed seasons.

Who Else Could The Red Sox Target In Trades?

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When Wil Myers’ name surfaced in trade rumblings surrounding the Padres, Red Sox and Mookie Betts, it seemed like a fairly straightforward thought process. The Padres wanted to acquire a star (Betts), had been seeking to jettison some of Myers’ contract and didn’t want to pay both Myers’ $20MM salary and Betts’ $27MM salary. But when the Myers-to-Red Sox rumors reemerged even after Betts had been traded to the Dodgers, that was more surprising. Eventually, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that the Sox’ aim in those talks was to use some of their newfound payroll space and luxury tax breathing room to effectively purchase some young pitching from the Padres. The basic premise: take on half of Myers’ contract and also acquire a pitcher such as Cal Quantrill to immediately plug into the mix at the MLB level. However, per Speier, there’s not much optimism at the moment that such a deal will come together.

But does that mean the Red Sox should abandon the strategy entirely? Well, why would they? There are dozens of undesirable contracts throughout MLB, and many clubs on the hook for those deals have pitching talent with which they could conceivably part.

However, it’s not as simple as just picking out a big-time contract and saying, “Let’s dump this on the Red Sox along with [Player X]!” Myers’ contract was something of an ideal fit for the Sox. The Padres aggressively backloaded his six-year, $83MM deal to the point that Myers earned only $7MM in salaries from 2017-19 (in addition to a weighty $15MM signing bonus). That’s notable for the Red Sox because they’re still “only” about $12-13MM shy of the luxury barrier. Taking on a bad contract with a $20MM+ annual salary over its full term — the relevant data point from a competitive balance tax perspective — would put them right back into the tax territory that ownership insisted on escaping erm, was … happy to escape as an ancillary benefit of building a competitive window … or however they choose to try to spin it.

Myers came with a $13.8MM luxury hit — and the cash the Padres would’ve included in the deal (a reported $30MM or so) would’ve essentially dropped Boston’s luxury obligation to $3.8MM. That’s an ideal balance of flexing the club’s deep pockets without running the risk of even approaching the luxury barrier. It’s easy to suggest Albert Pujols ($24MM AAV), Justin Upton ($23MM), Jason Heyward ($23MM), Chris Davis ($23MM), Matt Carpenter ($18.5MM) and plenty of others as a plausible fit, but Myers presented Boston with the rare opportunity to absorb half of a player’s remaining contract (and more than 36 percent of the total value) while only increasing their luxury payroll by about 1.9 percent. That’s not going to be the case with such high-AAV players.

Arrangements like the Myers deal are tough to find. Myers may well have been the single best target for this prospect-purchasing gambit — but he’s not the only one. Let’s take a speculative look at who else the Red Sox could inquire on in an effort to pursue a similar template but with a different trade focal point:

Rougned Odor, Rangers, 2B (three years, $36MM remaining on six-year, $49.5MM deal)

Odor’s contract only comes with an $8.25MM luxury hit in the first place, which the Red Sox could fit into their current budget even if Texas doesn’t include any cash. Add in even a few million dollars from the Rangers, and the Sox would be well shy of running into the threshold. To say the Odor extension hasn’t worked out for the Rangers would be putting things mildly; he’s hit .219/.285/.419 since putting pen to paper three years ago, and the bulk of the guarantee is yet to be paid out

The Rangers aren’t really maxed out in terms of payroll, but they’re also looking at playing one of the game’s top second base prospects in center field — surely in part due to Odor’s presence on the roster. Texas also added three starters with multiple years of control this winter (Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles), making it easier to absorb the blow of trading a big-league-ready arm. Maybe they wouldn’t be keen on using Kolby Allard (or someone similar) to rid themselves of the Odor contract, but if you’re the Red Sox, that’s an avenue to explore. It’s not like second base is a position of great certainty in Boston at the moment, anyhow.

Kyle Seager, Mariners, 3B (two years, $37MM remaining on seven-year, $100MM deal*)

The asterisk next to Odor’s name is necessitated by his contract’s “poison pill” — i.e. a $15MM club option that turns into a player option in the event of a trade. He’s at two years and $37MM only while donning a Mariners jersey; the moment he’s traded, that effectively becomes three years and $52MM. That wrinkle wouldn’t immediately impact his luxury tax hit though (and only minimally impacts it if/when he does trigger the option, as the current mark is $14.29MM).

The Red Sox are set at third base with Rafael Devers, but this type of trade isn’t really about positional need (and Seager could perhaps work at second base anyhow). The Mariners’ rebuild/”reimagining”/whatever they prefer to call it is nearing the point where GM Jerry Dipoto is going to want to supplement his emerging core with free agent acquisitions. Dropping a notable portion of the $19MM owed to Seager in 2020 and, perhaps more importantly, the $18MM owed to him in 2021 will aid in that effort.

Dee Gordon, Mariners, 2B/OF (one year, $14.5MM remaining on five-year, $50MM deal)

Same concept as Seager but with slightly different details. Gordon is a man without a position in Seattle and a free agent at season’s end. Gordon’s deal comes with a $10MM luxury hit that the Sox could shoehorn into their ledger without going over the barrier, but they’d have minimal breathing room. Gordon could step in as the primary second baseman with Dustin Pedroia on the shelf, pushing Jose Peraza to a more familiar utility role. And the Mariners would surely love to use that roster spot to get a look at a younger player while saving $14MM to spend on supplementing their core.

Randal Grichuk, Blue Jays, OF (four years, $43MM remaining on five-year, $52MM deal)

It’s hard not to wonder if the Jays would like a mulligan on last spring’s extension after Grichuk slashed .232/.280/.457 in 2019, effectively playing at replacement level. Then again, the Grichuk deal was a head-scratching move for most onlookers (myself included), as he didn’t appear to be a clear extension candidate. That 2019 slash looks awfully similar to Grichuk’s combined production from 2016-18 (.241/.292/.485), so perhaps the Jays are content with what he’s bringing to the table… but $43MM over the next four seasons nonetheless feels quite steep.

If the Jays are indeed looking for a way to back out of the deal, the organization is teeming with usable but unspectacular arms in the upper minors as it awaits the rise of higher-end prospects. The Sox aren’t getting Nate Pearson or anyone close to that caliber out of this deal, but paying a good chunk Grichuk’s deal in an effort to acquire a controllable fourth/fifth starter would be plenty defensible.

Ian Desmond, Rockies, INF/OF (two years, $26MM remaining on five-year, $70MM deal)

The Desmond deal has been a bust for the Rockies, who no longer even have a clear place to play one of their most highly compensated players. Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Raimel Tapia and Sam Hilliard are all more deserving of looks in the outfield. Garrett Hampson, Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon are in the mix at second base. McMahon could also play first, where the Rockies have another underperforming veteran in Daniel Murphy (though he’s only signed through 2020).

Colorado owner Dick Monfort opened the season by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility (and, after a winter of inactivity, bizarrely proclaimed that the same Rockies club that lost 91 games in 2019 would win 94 games in 2020). The Rockies aren’t exactly teeming with high-end pitching talent — hence the 91 losses in 2019 — but they have seven or eight starters on the 40-man roster and in Triple-A behind German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. This type of trade doesn’t really feel like Colorado’s style — in general, the Rockies aren’t highly active on the trade market — but if the Sox are interested in one of those back-of-the-rotation arms, it’s not hard to see the framework of a speculative deal.

—

As this exercise shows, it’s not exactly easy to structure a deal on this sort of premise — in large part because there just aren’t that many suitable contracts. And few clubs have the abundance of upper-level talent (with associated 40-man roster pressures) of the Padres. Still, the Red Sox surely will keep exploring avenues to put their wallet to work while still ducking under the luxury line.

8 AL West Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our preseason series exploring potential bounce-back candidates for 2020 began with a look at several AL West hitters hoping to rebound. Let’s stay in the division and focus on a group of talented pitchers who want to put disappointing seasons behind them…

Corey Kluber, RHP, Rangers: Kluber was the Rangers’ highest-profile offseason pickup and someone who’s now near the front of a revamped rotation, but the Indians decided the 33-year-old was expendable in the wake of a truncated 2019. In a limited number of innings (35 2/3), Kluber came nowhere near his two-time Cy Young form, notching a 5.80 ERA/4.06 FIP, and didn’t pitch past May 1 as a result of a broken forearm. Kluber did strike out almost 10 batters per nine when he was healthy enough to take the mound, but he offset that with some of the worst walk (3.79 BB/9), groundball (40 percent) and average fastball velocity (91.6 mph) marks of his career. With the Rangers holding an $18MM option or a $1MM buyout over him for 2021, this is an especially pivotal season for Kluber.

Jose Leclerc, RHP, Rangers: Leclerc was an absolute force during a breakout 2018, but his run prevention numbers took noticeable steps backward because of control problems. He lost his job as the Rangers’ closer at one point early in the year and wound up with a 4.33 ERA and 5.11 BB/9 in 68 2/3 innings. However, the 26-year-old did get a lot better after a terrible May, and he also concluded with 13.11 K/9 and a career-high 96.8 mph average fastball velocity (1.5 mph better than he recorded during his dream ’18).

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Angels: Considering their lack of high-end pitching additions in the offseason, it’s particularly important for the the Angels to get a healthy and better version of Heaney in 2020. Injuries victimized Heaney last year, holding him to 95 1/3 innings of 4.91 ERA/4.63 FIP ball. He also struggled to induce grounders (33.6 percent), which helped lead to an 18.3 percent home run-to-fly ball rate. But Heaney did log 11.14 K/9 against 2.83 BB/9 with a personal-best average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) and a career-high swinging-strike rate (14.1 percent).

Lou Trivino, RHP, Athletics: Trivino had an outstanding rookie year from the A’s bullpen in 2018, but with the clear exception of his 97 mph-plus velocity, just about everything went downhill last season. Fewer strikeouts and more walks meant far more runs against, with Trivino’s ERA/FIP shooting from the twos and threes to 5.25/4.53 over 60 frames during a year that ended early because of rib issues. And Trivino wasn’t as lucky as he was a rookie, as his batting average on balls in play and strand rate each went the wrong way. On a more encouraging note, the 28-year-old did rank near the top of the majors in a few notable Statcast categories, including average exit velocity against (85.5 mph).

Joakim Soria, RHP, Athletics: Soria was another A’s reliever who may not have produced as the team hoped he would have in 2019. The A’s signed Soria to a two-year, $15MM deal in December 2018 after a terrific season between the White Sox and Brewers, but for the most part, he couldn’t match what he did then. That’s not to say Soria was bad – he still posted a 4.30 ERA/3.62 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, and his mean fastball velocity remained in the 93 mph range. Also, as with Trivino, Soria was something of a Statcast favorite, mostly earning good marks in that area.

Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Mariners: On the heels of an excellent tenure in his homeland of Japan, Kikuchi was a high-profile signing for the Mariners entering the 2019 campaign. They guaranteed Kikuchi $56MM on a contract that could max out at $109MM, but Year 1 of the deal probably didn’t go to the Mariners’ liking. In his first season in the majors, the 28-year-old recorded a 5.46 ERA/5.71 FIP – both among the worst in the game – across 161 2/3 innings. He relied primarily on a fastball-slider-curve mix, but all three of those offerings ranked among the least effective of their kind, per FanGraphs. Kikuchi did walk fewer than three hitters per nine, though his K/9 (6.46) placed sixth from the bottom out of 75 pitchers who accumulated at least 150 innings.

Carl Edwards Jr., RHP, Mariners: It wasn’t long ago that Edwards was a key component of the Cubs’ bullpen. As recently as 2018, he put up a 2.60 ERA/2.93 FIP with 11.6 K/9 across 52 innings, though that stellar production did come in spite of a 5.54 BB/9 and a lowly 28.9 percent groundball rate. Edwards found a way to dodge home runs then, as he gave them up on just 3.8 percent of the many fly balls he allowed, but he wasn’t able to do so during an abbreviated, shoulder injury-plagued 2019 in the majors. Edwards only totaled 17 innings between the Cubs and Padres (his other 17 2/3 frames came in Triple-A ball), and he gave up HRs 15 percent of the time en route to an abysmal 8.47 ERA/5.74 FIP. His control got worse along the way, as he surrendered almost seven walks per nine, and so did his strikeout rate. Edwards fanned a little over 10 hitters per nine, but his strikeout percentage fell almost six points from the prior year, while his swinging-strike rate dropped nearly 4 percent. Still, for $950K, you can’t fault the Mariners for rolling the dice.

Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP, Mariners: Hirano’s another low-cost bullpen flier for the Mariners, whom they inked for $1.6MM last month. No doubt, they’re hoping they get a version of Hirano closer to 2018 than ’19. The former Diamondback recorded a 2.44 ERA/3.69 FIP in his first year in the majors, but those numbers rose to 4.75 and 4.04, respectively, last season. Hirano also generated fewer ground balls, gave up more home runs and issued more walks, though he did see his K percentage go up almost 4 percent, finishing with 10.36 per nine. Like the Edwards signing, there’s little to no harm from the M’s perspective in taking a chance on a rebound.

6 Potential Trade Targets For Yankees’ Rotation

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The Yankees’ rotation took a beating Tuesday with the loss of ace-caliber right-hander Luis Severino, who will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season. This will essentially end up as the second straight lost year for Severino, who starred from 2017-18 before tossing just 12 innings last season on account of shoulder and lat injuries. The Yankees did just fine in Severino’s absence in 2019, winning 103 games and the AL East title, but the latest development on the 26-year-old is no doubt horrible news for the club. That’s especially true when considering the Yankees will open 2020 without left-hander James Paxton, either their third- or fourth-best starter, as he’ll be out until sometime in May or June after undergoing a back procedure three weeks ago.

In an ideal world, the Yankees would have began the year with Severino, Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ complementing Gerrit Cole. But they’re now left to choose from some combination of Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga, Deivi Garcia, Luis Cessa, Mike King, Chad Bettis and Nick Tropeano to fill out their rotation. That’s obviously assuming the Yankees stay in-house to address their issues. Free agency’s just about empty at this point, as general manager Brian Cashman suggested Tuesday when he said, “The winter marketplace this time of year, it doesn’t exist.” Finding a solution via trade at this juncture doesn’t seem much more likely, considering Cashman indicated he expects to rely on internal options to replace Severino and Paxton, but the Yankees are better off trying that route if they want to make a high-upside play before the season.

Admittedly, most (or all) of the below names probably aren’t available at the moment. Nevertheless, let’s explore some enticing starters the Yankees could potentially acquire in the coming weeks or at least consider taking a look at around the July trade deadline…

  • Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies: Colorado’s of the belief (delusion?) that it’s going to push for a playoff spot this season, making it unlikely Gray will go anywhere before then. But if the team flounders over the first few months of the campaign, he’s a candidate to end up on his way out. The 28-year-old has plenty of value as someone with two seasons of control left, not to mention an ultra-affordable $5.6MM salary in 2020. Gray averaged 96 mph on his fastball last year and notched a 3.84 ERA/4.06 FIP with 9.0 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate over 150 innings.
  • Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates: Pittsburgh probably won’t win anything this year or next (Archer’s last two seasons of control), so it would make sense to listen to offers. However, the team may prefer to keep the 31-year-old for now in hopes that he rebuilds his value after a nightmarish season and a half in its uniform. Archer turned in an awful 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP with a career-worst 4.14 BB/9 in 119 2/3 innings last year. On the bright side, he fanned almost 11 hitters per nine, continued to average around 94 mph on his fastball and was much more effective in the second half of the season. And for what it’s worth, Archer has shown he can flourish in the Yankees’ division, the AL East, where he pitched from 2012-18 with the Rays.
  • Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: Boyd has been a popular name in the rumor mill for quite some time, but the Tigers haven’t traded him because they’ve apparently placed an exorbitant asking price on the southpaw. That’s understandable with Boyd under control through 2022 and due a reasonable $5.3MM this season. At the same time, they seemingly haven’t worked to extend Boyd, so perhaps a trade will come together sometime this year. All that said, preventing runs has never been Boyd’s strongest suit. He posted a sterling 11.56 K/9 with a 2.43 BB/9 a season ago, but he still ran up a 4.56 ERA/4.32 FIP and continued a trend of logging low groundball percentages (35.6).
  • Caleb Smith, LHP, Marlins: Smith was already a Yankee once, but they traded him to the Marlins in a 2017 deal that netted them the aforementioned King. Although Smith was unproven at the time, he has turned into a decent piece for Miami. Dating back to 2018, Smith has pitched to a 4.41 ERA/4.73 FIP with 9.99 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and an unsightly 26 percent grounder rate. Those certainly aren’t great numbers, though the fact that he has four years of control (including one more pre-arbitration season) helps make him pretty valuable. While the Marlins are still a ways from competing for a playoff spot, they’ve not shown a willingness to trade the 28-year-old Smith thus far.
  • Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: The Cubs were supposed to shake things up this offseason, partly in an effort to cut payroll, but they haven’t made any substantial trades yet. Getting rid of the four years and $81MM left on Darvish’s contract would help them duck the dreaded luxury tax, and there has been some interest around the league in the 33-year-old since last season ended. The Yankees were rumored to be among the teams in on Darvish when he was a free agent after 2017, but that doesn’t mean they’d want him now. Moreover, Darvish has a full no-trade clause that he doesn’t intend to waive. That NTC will become a 12-teamer sometime during the year, though, so he won’t have total say on his future for much longer.
  • Jose Quintana, LHP, Cubs: As with Darvish, moving Quintana would aid the Cubs in avoiding the tax, though it would also weaken their chances of competing in 2020. Quintana’s due $10.5MM this season, his last year of team control. The Yankees are familiar with Quintana, who belongs in the team’s “ones who got away” pile. He pitched in the Yankees’ minor league system several years back before blossoming into a quality starter with both Chicago teams.

Royals lefty Danny Duffy and Giants righties Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto are among other veterans who may be attainable via trade, but there’s a good case the Yankees would be better off relying on internal arms than pushing for either. Even most of the other names listed come with obvious flaws, so it would be reasonable if Cashman would rather see what he has in the organization for now before doing anything drastic in an effort to make up for the losses of Severino and Paxton. Remember, along with Paxton, the Yankees should get suspended righty Domingo German by the summertime, leaving them with a couple in-house reinforcements. But if the Yankees’ starting staff falls short leading up the deadline, it figures to be a key area of focus for the Cashman-led World Series hopefuls, and any of the above names may wind up on their radar.

Camp Battles: Giants’ Second Base Candidates

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi hasn’t been all that aggressive since he grabbed the team’s reins in November 2018. Zaidi has instead taken a more reserved approach with his rebuilding club, seldom making a notable splash via free agency or on the trade market. That said, second base has been an area of consistent change since the Zaidi era began, and the Giants have a quite a few choices for the position as the new season draws closer.

The Giants tried several different options at the keystone last year, but they had a hard time finding a solution at the spot. Joe Panik garnered more starts at second than any other Giant, though he had such a poor season that the club released him during the first week of August. Trade deadline acquisition Scooter Gennett lasted less than a month in San Francisco after bombing in its uniform. Similarly, fellow veteran Yangervis Solarte – who began the season on the Giants’ roster – wasn’t long for their roster.

On the other hand, the Giants did receive decent numbers from Mauricio Dubon, whom they picked up from the Brewers in another deadline deal, as well as Donovan Solano. It was rather surprising that Solano logged a .330/.360/.456 line with 1.3 fWAR in 228 plate appearances, as he hadn’t been especially productive with the Marlins and Yankees from 2012-16, didn’t appear in the majors from 2017-18 and joined the Giants on a minor league deal. The 32-year-old’s a candidate to see time at second yet again this season, but at least some skepticism is warranted in regards to his 2019 output. It was buoyed by an impossible-to-sustain .409 batting average on balls in play, after all, and Solano’s BB/K ratio (0.20) was only about halfway to the league average (0.37).

Dubon had similar struggles in the BB/K department (0.25), but it was just his first season in the bigs. The 25-year-old hit .274/.306/.434 in 111 PA between Milwaukee and San Francisco. He has also been a nicely regarded prospect for a while, so it stands to reason the Giants are hopeful he’ll emerge as a useful piece somewhere on their roster. That could mean making him their everyday second baseman or a utility player who moves all over the diamond.

Aside from the holdovers, the Giants have a few new faces vying for reps at second. That includes Wilmer Flores, whom they signed to a two-year, $6MM guarantee a couple weeks back. The former Met and Diamondback is another jack-of-all-trades type, having lined up at various infield positions since his career began in 2013. Offensively, the righty-swinging Flores is known for holding his own against lefties, but he hasn’t been a slouch versus same-handed hurlers. In fact, Flores has shown himself to be a viable option against all pitchers; between that and the value of his contract, he’ll get a lot of playing time for the Giants, though that doesn’t mean he’ll be their main pick at second.

Flores wasn’t San Francisco’s only second base-capable pickup in the offseason. The team claimed Kean Wong, brother of the Cardinals’ Kolten Wong, in November, and signed ex-White Sox second baseman Yolmer Sanchez to a minor league contract a month ago.

Wong’s still just 24 and coming off a couple of respectable Triple-A seasons, but he has almost no major league track record to speak of, and with three options remaining, the Giants could send him down without consequence. They don’t have the same luxury with Sanchez, a rare reigning Gold Glove winner who had to settle for a non-roster invitation in the ensuing offseason. Problem is that the switch-hitting 27-year-old hasn’t enjoyed much success at the plate, where he owns a .244/.299/.357 in 2,438 career attempts. As a result, he’s facing an uphill climb to open 2020 in the majors.

Sanchez’s goal is to win a second straight Gold Glove, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote Tuesday, but he’ll have to make the team first. As someone who’s not on the Giants’ 40-man roster, he’ll have his work cut out for him over the next few weeks.

MLBTR Poll: The Severino-Less Yankees

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Remember when the Yankees were supposed to have one of the most dominant rotations in baseball? That didn’t last long. A couple months ago, they were set to boast a starting five of newly signed $324MM man Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The shine has come off to a significant extent since the team won the Cole derby in December, however.

Severino – who, like Cole, is among the game’s premier starters – won’t pitch at all in 2020 in the wake of Tuesday’s news that he’ll need Tommy John surgery. Even before then, the Yankees were already reeling from the fact that the oft-injured Paxton will miss a significant portion of the season as a result of back surgery. The diagnoses Severino and Paxton received this month make it all the more fortunate for the Yankees that they added a legitimate ace in Cole, but their rotation (which doesn’t have clear answers in the No. 4 and 5 spots) looks decidedly worse than it did just a couple weeks ago.

At this point, it may be too late for the Yankees to find impact replacements for Severino and/or Paxton in free agency or via the trade market. But to the Yankees’ credit, they’ve shown an ability to overcome injuries and even thrive in the recent past. They seemed to lose one key player after another because of health woes last season (Severino, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Dellin Betances, to name just a few), yet they still found a way to win 103 games, earn their first American League East title since 2012 and get to the last round of the AL playoffs. And the team always has the financial advantage over just about everyone else in the game, meaning it should be able to bolster its roster by way of an in-season trade(s) if needed.

For now, with the Yankees’ rotation looking so much less imposing than it did a little while ago, their best chance may be to win games by beating the opposition into submission with their offense. The club’s hope is that Judge and Stanton will actually stay healthy; DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit and Brett Gardner will continue as quality complements; Miguel Andujar will bounce back from an injury-ruined season; and the likes of Gio Urshela, Mike Tauchman and Mike Ford won’t end up as one-hit wonders. A lot has to go right there, but if the Yankees’ offense does produce enough to give the team leads late in games, it’s in better shape than most with Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle comprising the majority of its bullpen.

As horribly as 2020 has already gone for the Yankees, they still look like the favorites in their division. The Rays are outstanding, but the PECOTA projections “only” peg them for 87 wins (12 fewer than the Yankees, though that was before they lost Severino). The Red Sox are quite talented, too, but they don’t look nearly as tough as they did before they traded their previous franchise player – right fielder Mookie Betts – as well as lefty David Price to the Dodgers a couple weeks. The Blue Jays have definitely taken steps forward since last season ended, but they don’t appear to be in the Yankees’ class right now, and the Orioles are, well, bad. So, even despite the hardships the Yankees are facing as they head into a new season, they still have the makings of a playoff team. However, with no Severino at all and a limited amount of Paxton innings, just how formidable do you think they’ll be?

(Poll link for app users)

How many Yankees wins do you expect?
91-95 33.41% (3,844 votes)
96-100 32.86% (3,781 votes)
101 or more 16.45% (1,892 votes)
86-90 12.22% (1,406 votes)
85 or fewer 5.06% (582 votes)
Total Votes: 11,505

Camp Battles: Padres’ Second Base Options

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Minor league signings aren’t often that compelling, but the Padres did make an intriguing pickup on a non-guaranteed deal this past weekend. The club added to a crowded picture at second base by inking former star Brian Dozier to a low-risk pact. It was somewhat of a surprise outcome in free agency for Dozier, as even though he’s not the huge-hitting, base-stealing standout he was in his Twins heyday, he was still fairly productive in 2019.

As a member of last year’s World Series-winning Nationals, Dozier batted .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs in 482 plate appearances. Those numbers essentially made the 32-year-old Dozier a league-average hitter (99 wRC+) and overall producer (1.7 fWAR). So, from the Padres’ perspective, there’s little to no harm in giving Dozier a shot on a deal that’ll only amount to $2.2MM if he makes their roster.

Second base was something of a sore spot in 2019 for San Diego, which received almost nothing from the now-retired Ian Kinsler and saw once-touted prospect Luis Urias struggle. Consequently, the Padres have reshuffled at the position since last season ended.

Well before the Dozier signing, the Padres traded Urias to the Brewers in a swap that sent outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to San Diego. A few days after that, the Padres replaced Urias in a different trade, acquiring Jurickson Profar from the Athletics for young catcher Austin Allen. Profar’s due to earn $5.7MM this season in his last year of arbitration control, but that’s not a guaranteed sum until the season begins. It’s unlikely to happen, but the Padres will be able to move on from Profar this spring if he flounders in their second base competition. Notably, the switch-hitting Profar, 27, hasn’t performed all that well since he debuted with the Rangers as an elite prospect in 2012. His difficulties continued last season in his lone year in Oakland, as he hit .218/.301/.410 with 20 homers and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA.

Dozier was more productive than Profar in 2019, and so was fellow Padre Greg Garcia. He batted .248/.364/.354 en route to 1.4 fWAR over 372 trips to the plate. However, the lefty-hitting 30-year-old wasn’t an option against same-handed pitchers. Conversely, Profar owned lefties while faring poorly versus righties. As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune notes, the plan had been for Profar and Garcia to platoon at second. That could still end up happening, but the addition of the right-handed Dozier – who has historically smacked lefties around – could throw a wrench into a Profar-Garcia tandem. Garcia doesn’t have a minor league option remaining, though, meaning he could wind up with another organization if he doesn’t make the Padres’ season-opening roster.

Dozier, Profar and Garcia are the main combatants in San Diego’s second base competition, though the team does have a few other possibilities in the mix. The versatile Ty France totaled 17 major league appearances at the keystone last season. His production wasn’t great in the bigs, whereas he utterly pulverized Triple-A pitching, hitting a video game-like .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs (196 wRC+) in 348 plate appearances. He’s on the Padres’ 40-man roster, as is Breyvic Valera, whom they claimed on waivers a couple weeks ago. Valera has put up nice numbers in the minors, but the 28-year-old switch hitter has fallen flat in multiple MLB stops. Unlike France, Valera’s out of options, so he could head back to the waiver wire if he doesn’t hold his own in camp.

That group aside, the Padres also have other second base-capable players around (Gordon Beckham, Esteban Quiroz, Ivan Castillo and Hudson Potts, to name a few), but they’re all in camp as non-roster invitees. Odds are that they’re not realistically going to push for the second base job. On the other hand, even though Dozier’s a fellow NRI, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the accomplished veteran open the year in San Diego. In the meantime, the club’s in for an interesting keystone competition over the next month.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Athletics?

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The Athletics will enter the new season fresh off back-to-back 97-win performances, and considering the chaos atop their division, they’ll be a popular choice to win the American League West. The Astros have taken it three years in a row – all seasons with 100-plus victories – but there’s serious skepticism that they’ll reign again in 2020. They’ve been dealing with the aftermath of a sign-stealing scandal that cost them their previous leadership and has dominated baseball headlines over the past several weeks. Oh, and they lost all-world right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Yankees in free agency.

Even with the mess it has created for itself, Houston remains an immensely talented team. But it may have a real challenger in Oakland, which overcame a slew of notable injuries in each of the previous two seasons on the way to playoff berths. The Athletics, like the Astros, haven’t been all that aggressive in upgrading their roster since last season concluded, so the A’s will go into the campaign with a roster that’s similar to the prior version.

The A’s position player group continues to brig an amazing left side of the infield (third baseman Matt Chapman and shortstop Marcus Semien), a high-quality first baseman (Matt Olson), a pair of underrated outfielders (Ramon Laureano and Mark Canha) and a couple bounce-back candidates (designated hitter Khris Davis and outfielder Stephen Piscotty) to the table. Likewise, Oakland’s pitching staff is rife with potential. Injuries and suspensions ravaged the unit last year, yet A’s hurlers still found a way to record the majors’ sixth-best ERA and eighth-highest fWAR. They’re now slated to get full seasons from left-hander Sean Manaea (injuries held him to five starts in 2019), breakout righty Frankie Montas (a PED ban limited him to 16 starts) and perhaps Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. Two of the most talented young pitchers in the game, Luzardo and Puk missed almost all of last year as a result of injuries.

The A’s rotation, which also includes the durable and effective Mike Fiers, will hand off to a bullpen that was tough on the oppostion in 2019. That was thanks largely to Liam Hendriks, who – much like former Athletic Blake Treinen before him – emerged as a dominant closer for the club. Whether he can keep it up remains to be seen, though, as Hendriks is just two seasons removed from being outrighted off the A’s 40-man.

Although there’s plenty of talent up and down Oakland’s roster, the team could face a stiffer test in its division this year. The Astros are arguably in position to decline somewhat, but the Angels and Rangers worked hard over the winter to better their chances of competing for the crown this year. And for what it’s worth, the recently released PECOTA projections call for the A’s to take a considerable step back, predicting 85 wins and a third-place finish in the AL West. That’s a solid amount of victories, but it’s obviously not what A’s have in mind for 2020 after two consecutive stellar seasons. The question is: Do you expect them to remain among the AL’s elite for a third year in a row?

(Poll link for app users)

How many wins do you expect for the Athletics?
91-95 35.11% (4,000 votes)
86-90 27.87% (3,175 votes)
96-100 18.43% (2,100 votes)
81-85 10.57% (1,204 votes)
More than 100 5.68% (647 votes)
Fewer than 80 2.33% (266 votes)
Total Votes: 11,392

7 AL West Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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As the season draws closer, we’ll be examining several prominent players around the majors who are hoping for bounce-back years. Let’s start with a group of well-known American League West position players whose numbers dipped dramatically in 2019…

Justin Upton, LF, Angels: The 32-year-old Upton has been terrific for the majority of his career (otherwise, the Angels wouldn’t have given him a five-year, $106MM guarantee after 2017), but last season was a nightmare. A foot injury kept Upton out until June, and his season ended prematurely in September on account of a right knee issue. When Upton was healthy enough to take the field, he batted a disappointing .215/.309/.416 with 12 home runs and a career-worst 30.5 percent strikeout rate (5 percent worse than his lifetime mark). Compared to 2018, his fly ball percentage and launch angle went way up, but his average exit velocity dropped almost 4 mph, and his hard-hit rate plummeted. The banged-up Upton was even worse in left field, where he accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-5.2 Ultimate Zone Rating. Upton recently told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he’s healthy and aiming for a rebound. The Angels will likely need one from him if they’re going to break a five-year playoff drought; if they get one, Upton should form a lethal offensive quartet with Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani.

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels: Like his teammate Upton, Simmons missed a significant number of games last year because of injury issues. Ankle troubles limited Simmons to 103 games, his fewest since 2012, and his effectiveness at the plate waned compared to the prior couple years. While Simmons has never been an offensive force, the defensive maven’s slightly above-average work with the bat from 2017-18 helped him combine for 10.4 fWAR in that span. Simmons only put up a .264/.309/.364 line in 424 PA last year, though he did continue to avoid strikeouts (8.7 percent), and his wizardry in the field helped him to a respectable 1.7 fWAR. However, he still finished near the bottom of the majors in several key offensive Statcast categories. For instance, Simmons’ xwOBA (.265) ranked in the bottom 2 percent of the league and fell 59 points from 2018. The ankle may have been holding Simmons back, but regardless, a return to form in 2020 would aid the Angels and the pending free agent’s bank account.

Khris Davis, DH, Athletics: Yet another injury case from 2019, Davis’ normally elite power was sapped during a season in which he fought hip, oblique and hand problems. After three straight 40-home run seasons (and four in a row in which he hit .247), he finished with a .220/.293/.387 line and 23 HRs over 533 PA. His ISO sunk like a stone, going from .302 in 2018 to .166 last year, and his hard contact went way down in the process. The 32-year-old has already been slowed by a calf injury early in camp, but indications are that it’s minor. Oakland will need that to be the case, especially considering the commitment the low-budget club made to Davis before last season. It still owes him $16.75MM on a two-year, $33.5MM contract that hasn’t worked out for the team so far.

Stephen Piscotty, RF, Athletics: The missed time theme continues. Piscotty’s 2019 ailments ranged from frightening (a melanoma on his right ear) to more conventional (knee and ankle injuries). The 29-year-old made just 93 appearances as a result, and he didn’t produce like the big-hitting, 3.0-fWAR player he was in 2018 when he did play. Piscotty hit .249/.309/.412 with 13 homers and 0.6 fWAR in 393 PA, though his hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity both increased. There may be hope for return to his career-best output, then, but Piscotty will first have to get over yet another health issue. He’s dealing with an oblique/rib cage injury that could jeopardize his status for Opening Day.

Mitch Haniger, RF, Mariners: Haniger was quietly great in 2018, but his playing time and his numbers sagged last season. He sat out 99 games after suffering a ruptured testicle at the beginning of June, didn’t play again after that and still hasn’t returned to health. Haniger just underwent his second surgery in the past few weeks – a microdiscectomy on his back – leaving it up in the air when he’ll debut in 2020. The 29-year-old is the Mariners’ best player, though, and if they can get a healthy version back sometime in 2020, he’s as logical a bounce-back candidate as anyone.

Mallex Smith, OF, Mariners: Smith looked like a quality pickup for the Mariners when they acquired him from the Rays after the 2018 campaign. At that point, the speedster was coming off a 3.5-fWAR, 40-steal showing in Tampa Bay. Smith amassed even more stolen bases in is first year in Seattle (46), but the rest of his stats tanked. The 26-year-old hit a weak .227/.300/.335 in 566 trips to the plate, while his defensive output was similarly poor (minus-12 DRS, minus-9.5 UZR).  The combination of subpar offense and defense led to a replacement-level fWAR for Smith, who also fell victim to a massive decline in batting average on balls in play. He logged an inflated .366 BABIP in ’18 and a .302 mark in that category last season, which partially explains the drastic difference in year-to-year production.

Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers: If you’re a Rangers fan (or even part of the organization), you may be tired of Odor’s inconsistency. He has been a 2.0-plus-fWAR player three times in his career, most recently in 2018, but a replacement-level or worse performer twice. That includes last season – even though Odor walloped 30 homers, he was only able to slash .205/.283/.439 in 581 tries. Along the way, the left-handed Odor posted his worst strikeout percentage (30.6) and was eaten alive by righty pitchers, who held him to a dismal .190/.260/.417 line. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Odor was much better in the second half of the season, ending the year with a flourish after general manager Jon Daniels expressed frustration with his production in late August. The Rangers still owe Odor $36MM through 2022, making it all the more important for the club to receive at least passable production from him.

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