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Reviewing Largest Expiring Contracts: Hitters

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We’re less than a week removed from analyzing how the five largest expiring contracts on the pitching side have panned out. We’ll do the same here with five big-money hitters who are scheduled to reach free agency in about a month. Notable omission: Red Sox designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez, who’s far from a sure thing to opt out of the three years and $62.5MM that remain on his contract.

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals (six years, $100MM, including $2MM buyout for 2020 and $10MM personal services contract that begins when career ends)
Total fWAR: 5.2
Dollar value of contributions (per FanGraphs): $41.7MM

  • The Nationals made the decision in 2012 to extend Zimmerman, then a star third baseman, though the contract didn’t kick in until 2014. Aside from a resurgent 2017, Zimmerman hasn’t been particularly valuable since Washington awarded him his lucrative accord. Injuries have been a consistent problem for Zimmerman along the way, including during a 190-plate appearance 2019 in which the 35-year-old mustered a less-than-stellar .257/.321/.415 line with six home runs. Those type of numbers don’t really play anywhere, especially at first base – which has become Zimmerman’s lone position. He hasn’t lined up at the hot corner since the first season of his deal. Once their season ends, the Nats will buy Zimmerman out for $2MM in lieu of bringing him back for an unpalatable $18MM.

Russell Martin, C, Dodgers (five years, $82MM)
Total fWAR: 12.5
Dollar value of contributions: $99.6MM

  • As a free agent in November 2014, Martin returned to his native Canada on an expensive contract with the Blue Jays. It worked out beautifully for the Jays during the first few years, but the rebuilding club elected to send Martin and the majority of the money left on his deal to the Dodgers – with whom he began his career – last January. The well-respected 36-year-old has remained a useful player in 2019, though he’s no longer the starting-caliber catcher he has been for most of his career. Martin, who has taken a backseat to Dodgers rookie Will Smith, has hit .220/.337/.330 with six HRs in 249 PA on the offensive side. Defensively, Martin’s still an above-average option, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.

Alex Gordon, LF, Royals (four years, $72MM, including $4MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 3.3
Dollar value of contributions: $26.3MM

  • Gordon’s contract, which still stands as the largest the Royals have ever given out, hasn’t provided the on-field value KC was hoping for when it re-signed him off a World Series-winning campaign. Gordon remains an immensely respected figure with the franchise, though, and if the soon-to-be 36-year-old decides to continue his career in 2020, it appears the Royals will welcome him back. First things first, the club will decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout, meaning Gordon will have to sign a new, much cheaper contract should he play next season.

Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox (six years, $68MM)
Total fWAR: 17.9
Dollar value of contributions: $141.5MM

  • Abreu’s the sole player on this list who’s setting up to make out well on his next deal, thanks in part to a late-season surge. The 32-year-old could even get a qualifying offer before hitting free agency, though he and the White Sox probably hope it doesn’t come to that. Both sides have publicly gushed over one another on several occasions, so it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the White Sox and Abreu shake hands on a fresh deal sometime in the next few weeks. Regardless, the franchise-record contract the White Sox gave Abreu as a Cuban emigree in 2013 has provided tons of surplus value for the team.

Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins (seven years, $60MM, including $1MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 10.6
Dollar value of contributiions: $83.4MM

  • Plenty has changed for Castro since he landed his contract as an up-and-coming player in 2012. For one, he was a shortstop at that point – a player the Cubs thought would be a long-term building block. But Castro was inconsistent from 2013-15, the first three years of his deal, leading the Cubs to trade him to the Yankees. Castro’s so-so production continued in New York from 2016-17, after which the Yankees offloaded him to the Marlins in a salary-dumping move that made it easier for the Bronx Bombers to take on Giancarlo Stanton’s massive contract. The now-second baseman has essentially been the same player in Miami, a notoriously low-budget outfit that will buy him out for $1MM this offseason instead of exercising its $16MM option over him for 2020. Set to turn 30 in March, Castro will venture to the market on the heels of a 1.3-fWAR season in which he batted .270/.300/.436 and smacked 22 homers over 676 PA.

Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Hitters

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Earlier tonight, we took a look at pending free-agent pitchers who are candidates to receive a qualifying offer before the market opens in a few weeks. We’ll do the same here with hitters who are on the cusp of free agency. Players who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Brewers catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas come to mind), nor can those who were part of in-season trades (Nicholas Castellanos of the Cubs and Yasiel Puig of the Indians, to name two).

Easy Calls:

  • Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: The Nationals reportedly made a recent extension offer to Rendon worth more than $200MM. So, of course they’d take him back for a year at roughly $18MM. However, as one of the best players in the game, Rendon would have an easy time rejecting the QO.
  • Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves: After two straight injury-limited seasons, the Braves took a $23MM gamble on Donaldson last winter. The move has worked out swimmingly. Donaldson will enter the playoffs off a healthy season, one in which he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR in 659 plate appearances.

Likely:

  • Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals: While Ozuna was not at his best during the regular campaign, he’ll still be one of the most sought-after hitters on the market. The soon-to-be 29-year-old comes with a fairly long track record of above-average production, evidenced by the fact that he will go to free agency on the heels of his fifth season with upward of 2.0 fWAR. He slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 homers and a personal-high 12 steals in 549 PA this season.

Borderline:

  • Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox: As of a couple months ago, Abreu did not look like a legitimate QO candidate. But the 32-year-old ended the season with a flourish en route to an overall line of .284/.330/.503 with 33 homers in 693 trips to the plate. While Abreu and the White Sox have made it known they’d like to work out an extension, the team could fall back on a QO if it’s unable to reach a multiyear agreement with him.
  • Didi Gregorius, SS, Yankees: This was not a banner regular season for Gregorius, who missed the first two-plus months of the campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall. After that, Gregorius saw his numbers plummet in comparison to the previous couple seasons, as he hit an uninspiring .238/.276/.441 with 16 home runs in 344 trips to the plate. Fortunately for Gregorius, he’s far and away the highest-upside shortstop due to reach free agency. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees saddle him with a QO.

Opt-Out Possibility:

  • J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: If Martinez does become a free agent, he’ll be a slam dunk to receive a QO. The question is whether the offensive standout will take a chance on going back to the market. Martinez, 32, would be abandoning a guaranteed three years and $62.5MM by doing so. As a defensively limited player who doesn’t have age on his side and is coming off a year in which his production plummeted in comparison to 2017-18 (though it was still very good), Martinez would be taking a substantial risk by opting for free agency.

Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Pitchers

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Major League Baseball’s postseason begins Tuesday, which means the start of free agency isn’t far away. Before the market opens, there are several teams that will have decisions to make on whether to issue qualifying offers to pending free agents. The qualifying offer, which should be worth upward of $18MM, gives a club the ability to keep a player for an extra year if he accepts it. Otherwise, should he walk as a free agent, the team would receive draft pick compensation for its trouble. Those who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Dodgers southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu is among those exempt), nor can players who were part of in-season trades.

We’ll begin this two-part series by looking at soon-to-be free-agent pitchers who may have set themselves up to land QOs before reaching the market…

Easy Calls:

  • Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros: As the lone pitcher in this year’s class who has a chance at a $200MM contract (or maybe even a $100MM deal), Cole’s an obvious bet for a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old may well hit the market off a Cy Young-winning season, having amassed a jaw-dropping 326 strikeouts (against 48 walks) with a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP in 212 1/3 innings.
  • Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: Throughout the first half of the season, it didn’t look as if Bumgarner would be in position to get a QO. That wasn’t because of his performance, but on account of the fact that he looked like a clear-cut trade candidate. The Giants ultimately held on to the franchise icon, though, and if he does reach the market in a month, he’s sure to come with a QO attached. After enduring back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, the 30-year-old Bumgarner restored his reputation as a workhorse in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of matching 3.90 ERA/FIP ball with 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9.
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets: One of the hardest throwers in the game, Wheeler has bounced back from arm injuries that derailed his career from 2015-17 to regain his status as a coveted hurler over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old just finished a season in which he logged a 3.96 ERA/3.48 FIP with 8.98 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 195 1/3 frames

Borderline:

  • Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Twins: Odorizzi may not look as exciting as the above names on the list, but the 29-year-old recorded compelling results during the regular season for the World Series-contending Twins. Thanks in part to an increase in average fastball velocity (92.9 mph, up from 90-91 during the earlier portion of his career), Odorizzi registered a stingy 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP in 159 innings this year. While Odorizzi’s trouble inducing groundballs continued (his GB rate checked in at just 35 percent), so did his ability to limit home runs (fly balls left the yard at a paltry 8.8 percent against him). Odorizzi also put up 10.08 strikeouts per nine against an even three walks.
  • Will Smith, LHP, Giants: Like teammate Bumgarner, Smith was a much talked-about trade candidate whom the Giants decided to keep. Now, if they issue him a QO, they’ll get a draft pick should he depart during the coming months. The 30-year-old Smith was a force this season, notching a 2.76 ERA/3.23 FIP with 13.22 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9 across 65 1/3 innings. Smith converted 34 of 38 save chances along the way.
  • Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs: Injuries prevented Hamels from enjoying another high-inning season, as he totaled just 141 2/3, though he was still effective. But whether Hamels was effective enough to merit a QO is iffy. Hamels, who will turn 36 in December, managed a 3.81 ERA/4.09 FIP with 9.08 K/9, 3.56 BB/9 and a 47.3 groundball percentage. Considering a QO wouldn’t be much of a step down from Hamels’ 2019 salary of $20MM, it’s likely he’ll give strong consideration to accepting it if the Cubs make the offer.

Opt-Out Possibilities:

  • Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: It’s up in the air whether Strasburg will become a free agent for the first time, as opting out of his deal would mean leaving a guaranteed four years and $100MM on the table. That’s a risky proposition for a 31-year-old who has dealt with plenty of injuries during his career, though the Nationals will surely hit Strasburg with a QO if he does gamble on going to the market. Strasburg stayed healthy during the regular season and put up a tremendous 3.32 ERA/3.25 FIP with 10.81 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 209 innings – the second-highest total of his career.
  • Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: For the majority of the season, a Darvish opt-out would have been unthinkable. Now, even though it still doesn’t seem as if it will happen, it’s not the impossibility it once was. The 33-year-old ended the season on an absolute tear, piling up 12 or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts. Darvish closed 2019 with a 3.98 ERA/4.18 FIP with a fantastic strikeout/walk ratio (11.54 K/9 against 2.82 BB/9) in 178 2/3 innings. Still, it seems he’d be better off sticking with the four years and $81MM left on his deal. However, if Darvish takes a risk on free agency, he won’t get there without a QO hanging over his head.
  • Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Yankees: Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on his contract, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the fireballer opt to test the market again. He’s fresh off an age-31 season in which he pitched to a 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP with 13.42 K/9 against 3.95 BB/9 in 57 innings. As has long been the case, Chapman was almost a lock to preserve wins, saving 37 of 42 opportunities.

This Winter’s Most Interesting Free Agent Relievers

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I’ve added all of MLB’s projected free agent relievers into a custom FanGraphs leaderboard, which you can check out here.  For the full list of 2019-20 MLB Free Agents, click here.  Let’s take a closer look!

Average Fastball Velocity

  1. Aroldis Chapman – 98.4 mph.  To become a free agent, Chapman will first have to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract with the Yankees.  I believe he’ll do so, unless the Yankees are willing to tack on an additional year.  If he reaches the open market, look for Chapman to attempt to get past Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal signed two years ago.  That could be a challenge, since Chapman would likely be saddled with a qualifying offer.
  2. Trevor Rosenthal – 98.0 mph.  Rosenthal was a big prize for the Nationals last November despite missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery.  He emerged with his velocity intact, but no semblance of control.
  3. Hector Rondon – 96.8 mph.  Rondon has always been prone to the longball, and this year his strikeout rate took a significant dip.
  4. Daniel Hudson – 96.1 mph.  After signing a two-year free agent deal with the Pirates in December 2016, Hudson was traded to the Rays and then released in March 2018.  After a stint with the Dodgers that year, he signed a minor league deal with the Angels before the ’18 season.  He failed to make the team, instead signing a Major League deal with Toronto.  The Jays sent him to the Nationals at this year’s trade deadline, and he became a key part of the team’s bullpen down the stretch.
  5. Arodys Vizcaino – 96.0 mph.  Vizcaino pitched only four innings for the Braves before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in April.  Vizcaino and his salary were sent to Seattle in the May Anthony Swarzak deal.  We’ve heard little about Vizcaino’s health since then, but if he’s able to pitch in 2020 he’ll be an interesting free agent.
  6. Jake Diekman – 95.8 mph.  Diekman inked an affordable contract with the Royals in February and was shipped to the A’s near the trade deadline.  Walks are a longstanding problem.
  7. Chris Martin – 95.7 mph.  A 21st round draft pick of the Rockies in 2005, Martin battled health issues and failed to get traction in the Majors.  Then he spent a couple of years dominating out of the bullpen for the Nippon Ham Fighters, and returned stateside with a two-year deal with the Rangers.  Martin was dealt to Atlanta near the trade deadline.  He has dominant peripheral stats this year and should be a buzzworthy free agent despite turning 34 next summer.
  8. Andrew Cashner – 95.4 mph. The Orioles traded Cashner to the Red Sox in July.  The veteran made six starts in Boston before moving to the bullpen, where he pitched pretty well aside from a rough final outing on September 28th.
  9. Nate Jones – 94.9 mph.  Jones’ season ended in April due to a flexor mass tear, though  he was traded to the Rangers at the deadline.  If the club balks at his $3.75MM club option, he’ll hit the open market.
  10. Drew Pomeranz – 94.5 mph.  After struggling mightily in 17 starts for the Giants, Pomeranz strung together four scoreless relief appearances before being dealt to Milwaukee.  He’s been truly dominant out of the Brewers’ pen and should be a popular free agent.

Strikeout Percentage – Minimum 20 Innings

  1. Drew Pomeranz – 47.2%
  2. Will Smith – 37.4%.  Smith is 16 months younger than Chapman, and will likely be on the top of many teams’ free agent reliever boards.  The southpaw made the All-Star team for the Giants this year and could seek a four-year contract.
  3. Aroldis Chapman – 36.2%
  4. Chris Martin – 30.1%
  5. Jake Diekman – 29.8%
  6. Collin McHugh – 28.2%.  McHugh has had success as a starter for the Astros, but he was moved to the bullpen in May this year and battled elbow issues.  He was shut down for the season a few weeks ago.
  7. Pedro Strop – 27.5%.  Strop struggled through hamstring and neck injuries this year, but prior to that he authored a five-year run of excellence as a late-inning staple for the Cubs.  Even in his struggles this year, his groundball rate ranked fourth among relievers.
  8. Will Harris – 27.1%.  Harris, a ninth round draft pick of the Rockies in 2006, joined the Diamondbacks in a 2013 waiver claim and found his first big league success.  The Astros were still able to pluck him off waivers again in November 2014, and he’s provided them with a 2.36 ERA in 297 innings over five years.  His 1.50 ERA leads free agent relievers.
  9. Greg Holland – 27.0%.  Holland signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks in January, earning the team’s closer job.  He lost the gig in late July and was designated for assignment soon after.
  10. Tyler Clippard – 26.8%.  Clippard inked a minor league deal with the Indians in February, made the team in late April, and pitched quite well on the season.

ERA – Minimum 40 Innings

  1. Will Harris – 1.50
  2. Aroldis Chapman – 2.21
  3. Daniel Hudson – 2.38
  4. Tyler Clippard – 2.38
  5. Brandon Kintzler – 2.68.  Kintzler put together a fine bounceback season for the Cubs, ranking behind only Jared Hughes among relievers with a 54.7% groundball rate.
  6. Yusmeiro Petit – 2.71.  Petit ranked sixth in baseball with 83 relief innings, and third with a walk rate of just 3.3%. He has a reasonable club option that the Athletics could very well exercise, however.
  7. Will Smith – 2.76
  8. Hector Rondon – 2.85
  9. Steve Cishek – 2.95.  The sidearmer’s peripheral stats this year weren’t amazing, but he did rank 10th with a 50% groundball rate.
  10. Craig Stammen – 3.29.  Stammen has put together an excellent three-year run out of the Padres’ bullpen, with a 3.06 ERA in 241 1/3 innings.  Like Martin and Petit, he demonstrated impeccable control.

Others to watch this winter who had success in 2018 include Dellin Betances, Jeremy Jeffress, Jared Hughes, and David Hernandez.

Three Needs: Toronto Blue Jays

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We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. Next up: the Blue Jays, who ran up 95 losses but also installed some highly promising core pieces at the MLB level.

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]

1. Open The Wallet For Starters

The Shapiro/Atkins regime has rarely lured significant starters with hefty promises, due in part to the organization’s need to transition away from some big preexisting commitments. (That task is now all but complete, with only eighteen million more Troy Tulowitzki dollars left to pay down.) To this point, J.A. Happ (3/$36MM) and Marco Estrada (2/$26MM) are the biggest pitching deals the current front office has done.

It’s time for more. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez finally dealt away, there’s a mile-wide opening in the rotation. The Jays may like their long-term outlook for graduating pitching talent, but at present the returning unit would be anchored by Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack. The 2019 Jays relied upon Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson, Clay Buchholz, and a smattering of other pitchers to get through the season.

Bringing back Matt Shoemaker and/or adding another bounceback candidate is well and good, but if this club is going to make strides it’ll need to spend — perhaps significantly — to bring in multiple quality arms. Avoiding overly lengthy and massive entanglements may still be wise, but the club ought to be willing to take some financial risk with a short-term, high-AAV deal (as in the John Lackey-Cubs signing) and/or mid-length, lower-AAV contract (e.g., the Twins’ deal with Phil Hughes) — depending upon what’s achievable on the market.

2. Deal Ken Giles

This runs somewhat counter to the above point, but the Jays aren’t in a position to point the bus down the road and slam the gas. They still need to meander around and make some additional finds before moving on down the road. Spending on some starters will boost the quality of the team significantly in the near-term and enhance the outlook for the next few seasons. Hanging onto Giles for his final season of arbitration eligibility would be a luxury.

The Jays almost certainly would’ve dealt Giles this summer had it not been for an ill-timed injury episode. He bounced back and finished strong, wrapping up the campaign with a 1.87 ERA and 14.1 K/9 vs. 2.9 BB/9 over 53 innings. That’s high-end relief output. With 23 saves also finding their way onto his ledger, Giles is going to command a pretty big raise on his $6.3MM salary, so he’s not cheap. But think about it from a contenders’ perspective: would you rather take a one-time, ~$10MM shot on a 29-year-old with elite stuff or risk as much or more annually over a multi-year term for one of the best-available free agents? There’s value here for Toronto to cash in and it’ll probably make sense to do so this winter.

3. Take Risks In The Relief Corps

Giles’s own year-to-year volatility is emblematic of a broader phenomenon that is by now well-recognized. It helps boost the reasoning behind dealing him. It also provides cause to believe that the Jays can dig up real talent on the relief corps by taking some shots.

This is hardly a new strategy. The Jays have used it themselves of late, inking veterans David Phelps and Daniel Hudson (since spun off via trade) and acquiring castoffs such as Derek Law, Ryan Dull, and Brock Stewart. So … suggesting this isn’t exactly earth-shattering. But it’s not the right approach for every team and every situation. It does seem to fit perfectly for the Jays. If they move Giles, as suggested above, the team will be left without a single relief pitcher who turned in a clearly productive 2019 season.

There’ll be plenty of internal hurlers who will and should get to compete for jobs in camp, but the Jays can legitimately offer free agents an opportunity to step right into prominent late-inning roles. Splashing some cash on short-term relievers isn’t going to hamstring the club in the long run. Waiver claims and minor-league signings offer other routes to bringing in talent. The Jays can fill out their group for the spring, then make late-camp changes as other clubs make their own tough calls. There’s no real need to focus on stability — something the club will be hoping to establish on the position-player side in 2020 — so much as to grab the most, best talent and let it all play out.

Poll: Grading Manny Machado’s 2019

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The long-suffering Padres made a stunning strike in free agency last offseason when they signed former Orioles and Dodgers  infielder Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM contract in late February. For a short period, Machado’s deal stood as the richest in the history of the game. Outfielder Bryce Harper – who, along with Machado – owned baseball-related headlines last winter, surpassed him less than two weeks later with a 13-year, $330MM guarantee from the Phillies. Harper was more good than great in the first year of his accord, though, while Machado probably wasn’t as strong as many expected him to be in his San Diego debut.

In the end, neither Harper nor Machado led their teams to drought-breaking playoff berths in 2019. The Padres won a paltry 70 games and extended their postseason-less streak to a whopping 13 years, though they surely remain hopeful Machado will help them back to relevance in short order. However, for the Padres to maximize their chances of success as they move ahead, they’re going to need the more productive version of Machado to reappear.

To his credit, Machado continued an impressive run of durability in 2019, appearing in at least 156 games for the fifth consecutive season. He also belted upward of 30 home runs (32) for the fifth year in a row. Overall, though, the Machado who was a dominant offensive player as recently as 2018, when he posted a wRC+ of 140 en route to 6.2 fWAR, wasn’t present. Machado’s wRC+ dropped to 108 this year, while his fWAR total fell to 3.0. Both figures are respectable, but they don’t make for superstar-caliber output. The same can obviously be said of the .256/.334/.462 line Machado recorded over 661 plate appearances. And Statcast doesn’t indicate Machado deserved a better fate at the plate, evidenced by his matching .339 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA (a steep drop-off from his .377/.372 in 2018).

On the defensive side, Machado remained a stalwart at third base, where he accounted for 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-2.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. Per the metrics, Machado was less successful at shortstop (minus-2 DRS, minus-1.5 UZR), but that doesn’t figure to be his long-term spot anyway. He saw 299 innings at the position because of multiple lengthy injured list stints for rookie Fernando Tatis Jr., who, when healthy, showed why he’s one of the most coveted young players in baseball.

Machado, for his part, is still plenty youthful in his own right. He won’t turn 28 until next July, and even though the four-time All-Star wasn’t a force this season, the left side of San Diego’s infield will remain in enviable shape going forward with him and Tatis in the fold. As for this year, though, how would you assess Machado’s performance?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Grading Bryce Harper’s 2019

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Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.

While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.

Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.

It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.

The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.

Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.

Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?

(Poll link for app users)

Reviewing Largest Expiring Contracts: Pitchers

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With the regular season on the verge of ending and free agency just over a month away, this is a good time to check in on how the majors’ largest expiring contracts have panned out. We’ll start with five pitchers whose deals have guaranteed them at least $40MM. Keep in mind that the list doesn’t include players with opt-out clauses or those with club options that’ll likely be exercised…

Felix Hernandez, Mariners (seven years, $175MM)
Total fWAR: 15.9
Dollar value of contributions (per FanGraphs): $121.5MM

  • When Hernandez inked his extension with the Mariners in 2013, it was the largest guarantee a pitcher had ever received. King Felix earned the honor by racking up three All-Star appearances and taking home an American League Cy Young Award during the first few years of his career, putting him on a Hall of Fame track. Hernandez continued to flourish during the initial three years of his extension, but his effectiveness began to wane to a dramatic extent in 2016, and he hasn’t been the same since. Injuries have limited the former perennial 200-inning right-hander to fewer than 100 frames in two of the past four seasons, including a career-low 71 2/3 in 2019. When the 33-year-old Hernandez has taken the mound over the past couple seasons, the results haven’t been pretty. Although Hernandez says he’s not retiring, the dismal 6.40 ERA/6.01 FIP he has put up this season should hold him to a minor league contract (if anything) during the upcoming winter.

Cole Hamels, Cubs (seven years, $164MM, including $20MM option for 2019)
Total fWAR: 23.1
Dollar value of contributions: $180.1MM

  • Hamels signed his deal with the Phillies in 2012, and though the southpaw has also pitched for the Rangers and Cubs since his extension kicked in the next season, he certainly hasn’t been a big-money bust. On the contrary, Hamels has provided respectable results throughout the pact, which is why the Cubs picked up the 35-year-old’s option for $20MM entering the present campaign. Injuries have somewhat slowed Hamels this year, but he has still performed well enough to rake in another decent payday after the season.

Rick Porcello, Red Sox (four years, $82.5MM)
Total fWAR: 13.1
Dollar value of contributions: $104.5MM

  • Porcello hadn’t even taken the ball in a regular-season game yet when the Red Sox extended him in April 2015, which came shortly after they acquired the righty from the Tigers. A half-decade later, it seems fair to say the club doesn’t regret the gamble. While Porcello’s overall run prevention hasn’t been spectacular since his deal took effect in 2016 (4.33 ERA/4.16 FIP), he has remained a consistent innings eater to this day, and the high points of his Red Sox tenure have been extraordinarily high. He won the AL Cy Young in 2016 and enjoyed a solid 2018 to help the Red Sox to a World Series title. However, this season has been a struggle for the 30-year-old Porcello, whose ERA (5.52) and FIP (4.77) are among the worst in baseball. As a result, he won’t be hitting the open market with much momentum.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (seven years, $59MM, including options exercised for 2018-19)
Total fWAR: 22.6
Dollar value of contributions: $177MM

  • This extension has been an absolute steal for the Giants, who guaranteed Bumgarner $35MM early in 2012 – a year in which he went on to win his second World Series. The contract didn’t officially begin until 2013, and all Bumgarner has done since then is win another title, continue to cement himself in playoff lore, go to four All-Star games and record a 3.10 ERA/3.36 FIP across regular-season 1,312 innings. The 30-year-old lefty hasn’t been quite as great this season, but after two straight injury-shortened campaigns, Bumgarner has turned back into a workhorse with 207 2/3 frames of 3.90 ERA/3.91 FIP ball and 8.5 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9. If Bumgarner and the Giants don’t come together on a new deal in the coming weeks, he’ll be an enticing (and fairly expensive) free-agent target for plenty of teams over the winter.

Rich Hill, Dodgers (three years, $48MM)
Total fWAR: 4.8
Dollar value of contributions: $38.3

  • Hill’s the sole hurler on this list who actually received his contract as a free agent. It was a bold move at the time by the Dodgers to re-sign Hill, then a 36-year-old who had only recently blossomed into a quality major league lefty. Hill has shown since then that the unexpected success he experienced shortly before landing his life-changing payday wasn’t a fluke, having registered a 3.33 ERA/3.90 FIP and helped the Dodgers to a pair of NL pennants. Unfortunately, though, injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence for Hill over the life of his deal, including during a 55 2/3-inning 2019. That’s not say the deep-pocketed Dodgers would undo the signing if given a chance, however, considering Hill’s effective numbers and his respected clubhouse presence. Hill will have a chance over the next few weeks to help the Dodgers to a World Series, and even though he’ll turn 40 in March, he’s not thinking retirement. Of course, thanks to his injury woes and age, Hill’s in for a far less lucrative trip to free agency this time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jonathan Villar’s Second-Half Surge

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Jonathan Villar’s name was barely kicked around the rumor circuit prior to this year’s trade deadline, with the Cubs standing out as the only team reported to have shown much interest. That doesn’t mean that Villar wasn’t discussed with other clubs, of course. But when an affordable veteran ($4.825MM) with only one and a half seasons of control remaining on one of the game’s worst teams doesn’t change hands at the deadline, it’s likely that interest in him was generally tepid.

Jonathan Villar | Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Really, there weren’t many infielders who changed hands at all on this year’s trade market. Jesus Aguilar, Scooter Gennett and Tony Kemp were traded largely for depth purposes. Prospects like Mauricio Dubon, Nick Solak and Josh Rojas were moved as hopeful long-term pieces. Among established middle infielders, Eric Sogard might’ve been the most consequential player traded. (Freddy Galvis later changed hands via August waiver claim.)

It stands to reason that not many teams were keen on making middle-infield upgrades, but that won’t be as true in the winter when all 29 other teams are taking a fresh look at their roster. And Villar has been nothing short of brilliant since the deadline passed, which certainly can’t hurt the Orioles’ chances of finding a team willing to part with some future in exchange for his final season of club control.

Villar, 29 next May, was already in the midst of a solid season in late July. On the morning of July 31, he carried a .266/.329/.425 batting line, 13 home runs and 23 steals on the season. For a middle infielder with ample experience at both positions — even if he’s not a great defender at either — that’s respectable output. Villar had a 98 wRC+ at that point, whereas the league-average second baseman was at 93. Essentially, Villar had been about five percent better than an average-hitting second baseman and about two percent worse than an average shortstop (100 wRC+ in 2019).

Since that time? Villar has improved across the board. He’s hitting .295/.364/.524 with 11 homers, nine doubles, three triples and 16 stolen bases (in 19 tries). Villar has punched out a slight bit more over the season’s final two months, but his overall strikeout rate on the season (24.9 percent) has improved for the second straight year since his career-worst 30.3 percent in 2017. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and launch angle are all below average but have all improved for the second straight season. And while Villar isn’t the burner one might expect for someone with his stolen-base totals, he’s been highly efficient across the past two seasons, going 74-of-88 in that regard (84.1 percent).

Thanks to the strength of his second half, Villar’s offensive output (108 wRC+) now checks in 15 percent better than the average second baseman and eight percent better than the average shortstop. Like many switch-hitters, he’s been better from one side of the plate (116 wRC+ as a lefty, 94 as a righty), but he hasn’t been completely overmatched regardless of which batter’s box he stands.

Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, and he’ll take home a solid raise on that sum thanks to his workload (159 games, 700 plate appearances at the moment) and his career-best counting stats. But even if Villar matches the 89 percent raise he received in arbitration last year, his salary will still clock in at about $9.125MM. Compare him, at that rate, to the rest of the rest of the free-agent class, and Villar looks like a sound one-year pickup before qualifying as a free agent himself next winter. That’s nearly the same price at which Brian Dozier ($9MM) signed with the Nationals this past winter after an off year and only slightly more than Jonathan Schoop ($7.5MM) received from the Twins. Villar’s four wins above replacement (4.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR) outweigh that pair of veterans combined.

This could be a peak year for Villar, but he’s now been worth at least two wins in three of the past four seasons, making his 2017 flop with the Brewers look more and more like an outlier. The free-agent market at shortstop has a pretty intriguing rebound candidate in Didi Gregorius and a defensive stalwart in Jose Iglesias. Dozier, Schoop and perhaps Mike Moustakas will headline the options on the other side of the bag. It’s not an elite class.

Villar may not be elite himself, but he’s a solid regular player who’ll come with an affordable price tag. The Orioles aren’t going to receive a king’s ransom for him by any means, but he’s also someone who should command a decent prospect or two in return. In retrospect, some team probably should’ve paid that price back in July.

Examining A Potential Jorge Soler Extension

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While it’s been a tough season for the Royals as a team, Jorge Soler has emerged as a bright spot in the heart of the lineup, hitting .262/.352/.555 with 45 home runs in a career-high 668 plate appearances. Long one of the game’s top hitting prospects, the now-27-year-old Soler (28 in February) has finally displayed the enormous raw power that garnered so much praise as a minor leaguer. Kansas City still controls Soler through 2021, but MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes in his latest Royals inbox column that he’s “convinced” the team will offer Soler an extension this winter.

Soler’s current contractual status is a bit unique, as he signed a nine-year, $30MM contract with the Cubs back in 2012 when he was just 20 years old. International free agency wasn’t nearly as restricted then as it is now — under current rules, he’d have been limited to a minor league deal and likely garnered a signing bonus worth less than a quarter of that guarantee — and the Cubs committed both a lengthy term and sizable guarantee despite knowing he’d need to log time in the minors.

Jorge Soler | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Soler is “signed” for the 2020 season at just $4MM, but he can opt out of that guaranteed salary and into MLB’s arbitration process this winter, as is the case with many Cuban defectors who signed Major League deals under the previous international free agency infrastructure. Based on his 45-homer campaign, he’s a lock to do just that. Arbitration raises for international players who opt out of this type of arrangement haven’t always been as steep as one might expect, but Soler will clearly top a $4MM salary. And since he’d be arb-eligible again in 2021, his salary for that season would be dependent on the size of the raise he gets in arbitration this winter.

All of that would be rendered moot in the event of a new long-term arrangement, though. Soler and the Royals will surely be talking contract when arbitration figures are exchanged in January, and that seems like a reasonable point at which the two sides could avoid a particularly tricky arbitration case with a multi-year arrangement. If not then, Spring Training extensions are commonplace.

There’s good reason for both parties to be amenable to a deal. Soler has banked a substantial sum in his career already but has yet to lock in a multi-year deal that pays him anywhere near open-market prices. The Royals, meanwhile, are aiming for a return to contention in 2021, and losing their top slugger at the end of that season would be a step backward. Soler is currently on track to become a free agent in advance of his age-30 season, so the Royals would be acquiring some additional prime years in a theoretical long-term deal.

The price of Soler’s would-be free-agent seasons is up for debate. Nelson Cruz has played each of the past five seasons (2019 included) for an annual rate around $14.25MM. He was considerably older than Soler when he signed a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners and his most recent one year, $14.3MM deal with the Twins. Edwin Encarnacion secured a $20MM annual rate in his three-year deal with the Indians — a contract that began with his age-33 season. Both right-handed sluggers had considerably longer track records of productivity than does Soler when they signed their contracts, though, and both had the benefit of an open-market setting. Soler didn’t even log a full big league season with Kansas City in either 2017 or 2018, posting a combined .228/.322/.403 batting line through 367 plate appearances across those two years.

Any power hitter’s production in 2019 is also going to be met with some skepticism as a result of this year’s explosive ball. That’s not to say the Royals should expect Soler to turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight on the 2019 season, but they’d be justified in pondering to what extent his power might scale back if the 2020 ball is more in line with previous seasons.

The length of an extension, of course, will be the other key part of the debate. Recent extensions for players with between four and five years of service time include Randal Grichuk and Jean Segura, both of whom signed away three free-agent seasons in addition to their remaining two arbitration years. Segura’s deal included an option for another year. In the case of Soler, who has a limited track record and notable injury history, a contract that exceeds five seasons in length seems like a reach. A total of five guaranteed years seems attainable.

Perhaps the biggest wild card in forecasting a possible extension value for Soler lies in the how his arbitration seasons are valued. As we saw with Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig and others, this type of contract is handled atypically in arbitration. Abreu hit .293/.353/.468 with 25 home runs the year before he opted into arbitration, and his salary only rose from $10MM to $10.825MM. A year later, he received a raise barely north of $2MM after posting an outstanding .304/.354/.552 slash with 33 homers. Puig, meanwhile, opted into arbitration last winter when he reached five-plus years of service time and, working from a smaller 2018 base salary of $6.5MM, jumped up to $9.7MM. He’d have earned $7.5MM had he stuck with his initial contract.

Depending on how Soler’s arbitration seasons are valued, Grichuk’s five-year, $52MM contract could be a particularly relevant comparison. They’re different types of players, of course, but their final two arb seasons could fall within the same ballpark. The roughly $13MM annual rate at which Grichuk’s free-agent seasons were valued in his extension could also be a point of reference Soler’s camp seeks to top; doing so would put him in Cruz territory for the average annual value of his free-agent seasons. I’d imagine Soler would do a bit better than Grichuk in terms of overall guarantee, but something in that general vicinity seems like a plausible landing point for the burgeoning slugger.

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