Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Free Agent Market Still Stocked With Well-Known Players

By | at

As we all know, past performance — especially, long-past performance — is no guarantee of more in the future. Teams are looking at more than Baseball-Reference career totals. That said, track record does generally reflect a high degree of skill. And there’s always value in a respected veteran.

Much of the offseason’s work is obviously complete at this point, but the leftover slate of free agents is somewhat more interesting than usual. Whatever one might think about their outlook for the future, there’s no denying the past accomplishments — and sheer name value — of quite a few players that are still available on the open market …

Seriously, the mass of talent would’ve made for an unbelievable roster just a few years back. Just for kicks, and to highlight the point, here’s a 26-man roster of remaining free agents, based upon career accomplishments and star power:

Starting Lineup

  1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: He hasn’t even been on the field in some time, but let’s not forget that Ells once turned in a 9.5 fWAR season.
  2. Melky Cabrera, LF: In his prime, the Melk Man was one of the game’s best pure average hitters. Heck, he still hit (a rather shallow) .280 in 2019.
  3. Hanley Ramirez, DH: We’ll keep guys in their current positions, so no cheating by plugging HanRam in at short. Dude could rake in his prime.
  4. Mark Reynolds, 1B: We’re going old school with a big ol’ first bagger slugger in the cleanup spot. The twist? It’s a 3-man platoon.
  5. Yasiel Puig, RF: The best present-day talent from this group, the enigmatic outfielder is still waiting for an appealing opportunity to open.
  6. Scooter Gennett, 2B: Though he has had more middling seasons than really good ones, Gennett had a heckuva two-year stretch with the Reds.
  7. Jung Ho Kang, 3B: Another player that had a pretty strong ceiling but couldn’t sustain it. There’s no word yet on Kang’s future plans.
  8. Russell Martin, C: Still a useful part-time catcher in recent years, Martin was long a somewhat underrated workhorse. Perhaps he could still add to a 55 fWAR career.
  9. Tim Beckham, SS: He’s not going to lead this lineup, but the former top overall pick has been good enough for long stretches to serve as a plausible semi-regular shortstop for a contender.

Bench

C – Jesus Sucre

1B/OF (!) – Lucas Duda, Mark Trumbo

INF – Devon Travis, Addison Russell

Rotation

  1. Matt Harvey: It remains hard to believe how far Harvey has fallen.
  2. Clay Buchholz: If only we could presume health.
  3. Andrew Cashner: Never reached his ceiling but has had some strong campaigns out of the rotation.
  4. Marco Estrada: For a stretch, Estrada was a quietly sturdy and useful mid-rotation pitcher.
  5. Jason Vargas: The soft-tossing southpaw is the ultimate #5 starter. He has only once topped 3 fWAR in a season … yet has accumulated more fWAR in his career than any of the guys listed above.

Bullpen

  1. Danny Salazar: I’ve got my eyes on an alternative universe where Salazar stays healthy and dominates for a decade as a Josh Hader-type high-leverage flex reliever.
  2. Aaron Sanchez: Ditto!
  3. Luke Gregerson: Long one of the most reliable late-inning arms in baseball.
  4. Pat Neshek: And another.
  5. Fernando Rodney: Are we getting a whole lot of misadventures or the absurd dominance of 2012? Couldn’t tell ya; finding out is all part of the Experience.
  6. Zach Duke: The re-made reliever version of Duke was a beast in 2014.
  7. Jonny Venters: Ah, what could have been. The Braves rode Venters hard in 2010-11, when he mowed down hitters with both strikeouts and groundballs.

Manager

Ben Zobrist (reportedly set to retire)

Camp Battles: Yankees’ First Base Situation

By | at

The Yankees have gotten more from first baseman Luke Voit than they realistically could have expected when they acquired him from the Cardinals in July 2018. A 22nd-round pick of the Cardinals in 2013, Voit ultimately managed just 137 plate appearances with the team before it sent him to the Yankees in a swap that has worked out well for both sides. Voit has been quite productive as a member of the Yankees, with whom he has hit .280/.384/.517 in 658 trips to the plate, while reliever Giovanny Gallegos emerged as an integral piece of the Cardinals’ bullpen a year ago. However, despite the good numbers Voit has put up with the Bronx Bombers, he doesn’t necessarily have first base on lockdown heading into the new season. Rather, the team’s “open to other options” there, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. Let’s take a look at who’s in the mix…

  • Luke Voit: The 29-year-old slashed a robust .263/.378/.464 with 21 home runs in 510 PA in 2019, his first full campaign as a Yankee, but his production dropped precipitously in the second half. Voit battled sports hernia issues throughout, though he insists those problems are behind him. “I had a bunch of MRIs during the season and I finally saw Dr. Myers, a specialist in Philadelphia, and he told me I tore everything down there,” Voit told Ackert. “I was just like, ‘Wow,’ I didn’t really know it was that bad. I tried to fight through it. I’m a competitor I want to play… the past is the past, but now I’m feeling good and ready to get things rolling.”
  • Mike Ford: Voit’s injury troubles last year helped pave the way for the lefty-hitting Ford’s major league debut, and he took full advantage. The 27-year-old batted .259/.350/.559 with prodigious power numbers (.301 ISO, 12 homers) over 163 plate appearances. And Ford didn’t sell out for more power by racking up a lot of strikeouts, as he fanned just 17.2 percent of the time (compared to a 10.4 percent walk rate). Moreover, his swinging-strike rate (8.1) checked in exactly 3 percent better than average, and he was actually far more effective versus same-handed pitchers than righties (albeit during a limited sample of work). The track record in the bigs is still small – even Ford recently said to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, “Anyone could be good for 160 at-bats” – but he also held his own in Triple-A, where he owns a .274/.364/.514 mark in almost 900 PA.
  • Miguel Andujar: An AL Rookie of the Year candidate back in 2018, Andujar fell on hard times last season because of shoulder woes that held him to a mere 12 games. Andujar was the Yankees’ starting third baseman in his first year, but Gio Urshela filled that role with aplomb when he was down last season and is in line to enter 2020 as their starter there. Andujar, 24, could therefore pick up time at first base and in the corner outfield if the Yankees want to keep his bat in the lineup.

Fortunately for the Yankees, they’re not at immediate risk of losing any of these players if they don’t earn MLB roster spots to begin the season. All three have two minor league options apiece remaining, so New York could send any of them to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre if it wants. But they’ve all shown well as big league hitters so far, and the Yankees do have the luxury of deploying a DH. So, regardless of position, Voit, Ford and Andujar could each make a notable impact in the majors this season.

Camp Battles: Twins’ Fifth Starter

By | at

Entering the offseason, the Twins’ rotation consisted of Jose Berrios and, uh … [checks notes] — that’s about it. Minnesota had quite a bit of work to do to fill out the starting staff and immediately received a boost when Jake Odorizzi accepted a $17.8MM qualifying offer. The Twins brought back another piece of their ’19 rotation when they agreed to a two-year, $20MM deal with Michael Pineda, although he’ll miss the first six weeks while serving the remainder of a reduced 60-game PED suspension. The rest of their moves took a bit longer, but by the time the Twins reported to camp in Fort Myers, Fla., they had lockers set up for Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

Minnesota didn’t get the “impact” pitching they proclaimed to be a priority, instead pivoting to give Josh Donaldson the second-largest deal in franchise history (four years, $92MM) after coming up short in their pursuits of Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and (reportedly to a lesser extent) Madison Bumgarner. But they’ll break camp with a rotation consisting of Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda and Bailey, with both Pineda and Hill (coming back from elbow surgery) looming as midseason additions.

As for the fifth spot early in the season? The Twins have a handful of options who’ll be considered over the course of the next month, including a series of optionable 40-man roster members and at least one low-risk non-roster invitee…

  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: It’s hard not to consider Dobnak the front-runner, considering the Twins entrusted him with a postseason start last year after Pineda was suspended. That outing, of course, didn’t go well, but Dobnak’s 2019 season was nonetheless an eye-opener. It took the 25-year-old two years and one week to go from undrafted indie league hurler to the Majors. His rapid ascent in 2019 was in no small part due to the combined 2.07 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9 and near-60 percent ground-ball rate he turned in over 135 minor league innings (three levels). Upon reaching the big leagues, Dobnak turned in a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 28 1/3 innings. He won’t simply be handed the job, but Dobnak went from an unranked prospect within the Twins’ system to a potential rotation favorite in the span of one year.
  • Devin Smeltzer, LHP: Not to be overshadowed, Smeltzer had an impressive 2019 campaign of his own. Acquired in the trade that sent Brian Dozier to Los Angeles, the 24-year-old turned in a 2.76 ERA with a pristine 104-to-22 K/BB ratio in 104 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His big league work wasn’t quite as sharp, but in 49 innings, Smeltzer gave the Twins a 3.86 ERA with averages of 7.0 strikeouts, 2.2 walks and 1.47 homers per nine innings pitched. Like Dobnak, he elevated his status within the organization about as much as a prospect can in a year’s time. For what it’s worth, the Twins’ outfield defense is vastly superior to its infield defense, and Smeltzer is a fly-ball pitcher.
  • Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Thorpe, 24, was a notable signing out of Australia back on the 2012-13 international market and twice landed on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 prospects list (2014-15). Tommy John surgery in 2015 wound up costing him all of the 2015-16 seasons, though, which significantly delayed his path to the big leagues. Thorpe has shown huge strikeout ability in the minors, and while last year’s 4.58 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look like much, it was at least a respectable showing in a league that was dominated by hitters. Thorpe averaged better than 11 punchouts per nine frames in Triple-A and struck out 31 hitters in 27 2/3 MLB frames in his debut effort. His bottom-line results in the Majors weren’t great (6.18 ERA), but he’s now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and misses more bats than any of his competition.
  • Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (non-roster): The primary veteran NRI in Twins camp, Chacin stumbled through the worst season of his career in 2019, recording a 6.01 ERA and serving up an average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched. The long ball has never been an Achilles heel for Chacin, though, and he’s only a year removed from a strong showing in Milwaukee (3.50 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 192 2/3 innings). In fact, from 2013-18, Chacin notched a 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP in 804 1/3 innings. It’ll surprise some to learn that Chacin only just turned 32 years old in January — he debuted at 21 back in 2009 — so a rebound is hardly out of the question. It seems likely that Chacin would need to handily outperform the rest of the field, given that he’s not on the 40-man roster, but he’s in the mix even if he’s a long shot.

Whoever wins the competition appears likely to be a stopgap until Pineda returns, but it’s possible that any combination of the candidates will also see action in the bullpen as well. This group will also be the Twins’ first line of defense against potential injuries. However it shakes out, Minnesota seems likely to once again explore the market for higher-end pitching upgrades on the summer trade market. The above-listed candidates, Pineda and Hill give the Twins plenty of depth in the rotation, but expect them to pursue potential playoff-rotation-caliber arms in the weeks leading up to the deadline as well.

MLBTR Poll: Last Year’s Division Champs

By | at

Of the six teams that finished in first place in their divisions in 2018, three (the Red Sox, Indians and Brewers) failed to defend their crowns last season. Two (the Red Sox and Indians) didn’t even make the playoffs, so ruling your division one year doesn’t mean you’ll end up in the postseason the next. Last season, the Yankees, Astros and Twins finished atop their divisions in the American League, while the Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals were the top seeds in the NL. Among those six, who’s the most vulnerable going into the new season? Let’s review the offseasons they’ve had…

AL:

  • Astros: If you’ve paid any attention to baseball in the past several weeks, you know this offseason has been a catastrophe for the Astros. They got rid of general manager Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch as a result of a sign-stealing scandal that has rocked baseball, replacing them with James Click and Dusty Baker. The Astros are still loaded with talent, but they lost the great Gerrit Cole even before their sign-stealing shenanigans came to light. Now, there’s plenty of skepticism they’ll put together a fourth straight 100-win season after such a horrendous winter – one in which they were very quiet in free agency. What’s more, they’re stuck in a division with a legit challenger in Oakland and two improving clubs in the Angels and Rangers.
  • Yankees: New York took Cole from Houston, which has been the Wile E. Coyote to the Yankees’ Road Runner in recent postseasons. The Yankees looked as if they’d have a tremendous rotation with Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as their top four, but health woes are already haunting the club yet again after an injury-riddled 2019. Severino, who barely pitched last season, is now facing a very worrisome situation with his forearm; meanwhile, Paxton will sit out until at least May or June as a result of back surgery. The Yankees are still laden with talent, and they remain capable of pulverizing the opposition with their offense, but some of the shine has come off since the Cole signing because of the Severino and Paxton situations. Fortunately for the Yankees, there may only be one team capable of standing up to them in the AL East – the Rays.
  • Twins: It was quite a winter for the Twins, who bolstered their rotation with the additions of Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. They also retained Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Perhaps more importantly, they signed third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92MM – the largest contract they’ve ever given out in free agency. So, a team that hit an all-time record 307 home runs in 2019 seems as if it’ll put a similarly scary offense on the field this year. The Twins could face more resistance in their division from the White Sox, who had an aggressive winter, though the Indians haven’t really bettered themselves. The Tigers have, but they’ll still struggle to win many games, while the Royals also figure to wind up among the game’s worst teams.

(Poll link for app users)

Who is the AL's most vulnerable reigning division winner?
Astros 63.20% (7,781 votes)
Twins 23.33% (2,873 votes)
Yankees 13.47% (1,658 votes)
Total Votes: 12,312

NL:

  • Dodgers: What do you get the team that won 106 games last season? How about Mookie Betts, who’s on the short list of the greatest players in the game? With Betts in tow, the Dodgers will enter 2020 as the overwhelming favorites to win their division for the eighth year in a row, but an improved Arizona club should at least offer a decent challenge. The Padres have also worked to get better since last season ended, but they don’t appear to be any match for the stacked Dodgers, while the Rockies and Giants look to be way behind.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s down Donaldson, but it was rather active in adding free agents. The team plucked the likes of Marcell Ozuna, Will Smith, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud and Chris Martin off the open market. Hamels is dealing with shoulder problems, however, and it’s unclear when he’ll be able to pitch in 2020.  Regardless, the Braves still have quite a bit of premier talent (Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka spring to mind), so it’s easy to envision them winning a third consecutive division title. At the same time, the reigning world champion Nationals, the Mets and Phillies are realistic contenders for the NL East championship.
  • Cardinals: Aside from the Reds, a 75-win outfit a year ago, it wasn’t really a busy offseason for any NL Central team. That includes the Cardinals, whose biggest addition was Korean left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim (and they lost their No. 1 free agent, the aforementioned Ozuna). They’re now set to open 2020 without one of their best starters in Miles Mikolas, who just received a platelet-rich plasma injection. The good news for St. Louis is that there’s no apparent juggernaut in its division, as the Cubs and Brewers have either stayed roughly the same or gotten worse since last year ended.

(Poll link for app users)

Who is the NL's most vulnerable reigning division winner?
Cardinals 73.68% (9,600 votes)
Braves 20.97% (2,732 votes)
Dodgers 5.36% (698 votes)
Total Votes: 13,030

The Athletics Have Placed Their Betts

By | at

At first glance, the Athletics didn’t really do much of note this winter. The club retained southpaw Jake Diekman and picked up infielders Tony Kemp and … picked up a club option over Yusmeiro Petit and … umm …. signed Ryan Goins to a minor-league deal.

Viewed through another lens, though, the notoriously low-budget A’s had a blockbuster, all-in offseason. Which lens is that? The one through which Red Sox owner John Henry views the game of baseball.

After trading away homegrown superstar Mookie Betts, Henry conveyed his cherished memories of Stan The Man for brownie points with the Boston fanbase. Saying his young heart would’ve shattered had childhood hero Stan Musial “ever been traded — for any reason,” the now-grown Henry … well, gave some reasons why Betts was sent west by one of the richest teams in sports.

It wasn’t about getting under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, Henry says. Rather, it’s just the sort of thing that is foisted upon MLB teams — even those “consistently among the highest-spending clubs in baseball” — by the collective bargaining agreement (a deal those same teams negotiated to their general advantage).

The Red Sox, per Henry, were forced to “make hard judgments about competing for the future as well as the present.” Their hands were tied by the fact that, “In today’s game there is a cost to losing a great player to free agency — one that cannot nearly be made up by the draft pick given.” Ultimately, Henry said of the organization’s leadership: “we could not sit on our hands and lose [Betts] next offseason without getting value in return to help us on our path forward.”

There are many ways to approach and discuss these comments. For our purposes here, we’re not even going to consider what they mean for the Red Sox or the game of baseball. There’s no need to call for pitchforks; that statement has already had its day in the news cycle anyway. The Boston club certainly has spent and put a winner on the field of late. And Henry at least fessed up to the fact that the team simply decided to punt near-term performance for future value, even if he didn’t want to acknowledge the rather obvious financial component of that calculus.

What’s most interesting to me about the comments is that … holy smokes, the Oakland Athletics really believe! If Henry is to be taken at his word, then the A’s are making one heckuva roll of the dice by keeping, rather than trading, their own pending free agent star: shortstop Marcus Semien.

True, Semien almost assuredly isn’t as good as Betts, but the former actually contributed a full fWAR more than the latter in 2019. Semien is only earning $13MM, just under half the $27MM Betts will receive. But it’s a much bigger portion of the Oakland payroll than Betts was to the Boston budget. (That’s true just based upon simple math, but that tends to undersell the impact. The A’s have to consider every dollar spent over league minimum, while the Red Sox have far greater operating leeway to shoehorn in cost-efficient but more-than-minimum players.)

What of the odds of success in 2020, which is obviously a huge component of this decision? The Red Sox are well behind the Yankees on paper. But the A’s are chasing an uber-talented Astros team that remains mighty even without its crack signals operations unit. Both of these teams are unlikely to take their division, but each is a solid Wild Card contender. Fangraphs’ postseason odds aren’t gospel and obviously must be taken only as a guide to true roster capability (as they are intended) … but wait, how does this make sense? The Red Sox, sans Betts, project at about a coin flip of making the postseason. That tops the A’s, even with Semien! You might quibble with the projections and point to the upside on the Oakland roster. But don’t the Red Sox still have Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers?

So, even as the Red Sox determined they couldn’t “sit on [their] hands and lose” Betts without adequate compensation after the coming season, the Athletics decided to keep Semien in roughly analogous circumstances. Well, analogous from a roster talent and postseason odds perspective. The low-budget A’s are the sort of team that’s typically forced to take its Betts-type players off the table on the rationale set forth by Henry, even if it stings, in order to preserve a long-term flow of talent and keep up with deeper-pocketed rivals. Instead, they’re letting their version of Betts ride.

It’s quite the juxtaposition. Perhaps the A’s still have designs on a Semien extension, but it’s far from inevitable and we haven’t heard indication that a deal is particularly likely. And if one is to be struck, it’ll require convincing him to forego free agency … which will assuredly require the kind of price that makes the A’s squirm (even if they can now finally see a new ballpark on the horizon). A mid-summer trade fall-back is available but isn’t exactly plan A. All things considered, in relative terms, the situation is quite similar to that which would’ve faced the Red Sox on Betts.

Look, I don’t really have a Take here. I’m not here to call the Oakland front office reckless or label Henry’s explanation feckless. My point is only this: given those two teams’ divergent approaches, doesn’t Henry’s statement suggest that one or the other is true?

This Date In Transactions History: The $300MM Man(ny)

By | at

It has been exactly one year since the biggest signing in the history of the San Diego franchise became official. The team stunningly pulled in former Orioles and Dodgers third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado on a 10-year, $300MM contract. The deal easily trumped the Padres’ previous record contract – the eight-year, $144MM pact they awarded first baseman Eric Hosmer in February 2018.

Along with outfielder Bryce Harper, Machado entered last winter’s free-agent market as one of the most ballyhooed free agents of all-time. The two made for rare in-their-prime superstars to get to that stage, but it took quite some time for either to find landing spots. Unlike this offseason, free agency moved at a glacial pace then, leaving Machado and Harper without teams until almost March. However, both ultimately inked two of the richest contracts free agency has seen (Harper’s $330MM guarantee still stands as the largest ever awarded on the open market).

When Machado became a free agent, expectations were he’d sign with a big-spending team like the Yankees, but they and others decided to go in another direction. And Machado didn’t do himself any favors when he said during the prior fall that he’s “not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle.’” Nevertheless, he arrived on the market as an incredibly accomplished player.

Upon getting to free agency, Machado was a 26-year-old with four All-Star nods and two Gold Gloves under his belt, and he showed he could handle both short and third with aplomb. Furthermore, from his first full season in 2013 through 2018, Machado batted .283/.337/.489 with 168 home runs, accounting for the seventh-highest fWAR among position players (28.9). For the most part, he was also rather durable in that span, twice appearing in 162 games in a season and amassing at least 150 appearances five times.

Machado’s sturdiness continued in his first season as a Padre in 2019, when he took part in 156 games. The longtime shortstop did see time there, but only because stellar youngster Fernando Tatis Jr. missed a significant amount of action thanks to injuries. The plan was (and continues to be) for Machado and Tatis to form one of the premier left sides of the infield in baseball. When healthy, there’s a case they did just that, though Machado’s first year in San Diego was arguably somewhat disappointing. Primarily a third baseman, Machado took 661 plate appearances and hit .256/.334/.462 – good for a slightly above-average 108 wRC+. That comes off as pedestrian in comparison to some of his past seasons, yet he still mashed 32 homers and recorded 3.1 fWAR.

Most teams would sign up for the type of production Machado offered in 2019 from their third basemen. However, the Padres probably wanted more bang for their buck in the first season of a $300MM contract. Perhaps the Padres will get it this season, as Machado has shown an ability in the past to bounce back from seasons that have been so-so by his standards (compare his 2017 to his 2018, for example). If he returns to elite form, it would only help the Padres in their quest to break what’s now a 13-year playoff drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Camp Battles: Braves’ Third Base Situation

By | at

The Braves had a better third base setup than the vast majority of major league teams a year ago. Josh Donaldson, whom they signed to a one-year, $23MM contract heading into 2019, finished as one of the most valuable players at his position. In his first (and maybe only) season in the National League, the former AL MVP hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR in 659 plate appearances. His contributions helped the Braves to a 97-65 record and their second straight NL East title, but they’re now facing life without him as the new season nears.

Atlanta’s hope was to retain Donaldson after his productive 2019, but the club was unable to pull off the feat. The 34-year-old instead went back to the AL, where he had previously played with the Athletics, Blue Jays and Indians, on a four-year, $92MM contract with the Twins. Donaldson’s loss leaves a serious void in the Braves’ lineup, but they’re hoping to somewhat fill his offensive void with outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the club inked to a one-year, $18MM contract a few weeks back. But what of third base? Well, the Braves have a couple options there, though they’ll have a very hard time making anyone forget about Donaldson. Let’s explore who’s in the mix…

  • Johan Camargo: An underrated producer in 2018, the switch-hitting Camargo posted 3.3 fWAR while seeing time at both positions along the left side of the Braves’ infield. The 2019 campaign didn’t make for much of an encore, though, as Camargo batted a miserable .233/.279/.384 with seven home runs and minus-0.5 fWAR in 248 plate appearances. Perhaps it wasn’t that surprising; after all, while Camargo registered good bottom-line results from 2017-18, his Statcast numbers lagged well behind in both years. He only put up a .282 expected weighted-on base average in ’19, which didn’t fall that far behind the .304 and .310 marks he recorded in the prior two seasons.
  • Austin Riley: The 41st overall pick of the Braves in 2015, Riley earned his first major league promotion last May, at which point he was considered one of the absolute best prospects in the sport. Riley began with a flourish in the bigs, but his numbers trailed off significantly as the year progressed. The 22-year-old spent the majority of his season in left field and slashed .226/.279/.471 over 297 trips to the plate. Riley exhibited impressive power (18 homers. .245 ISO), but his strikeout and walk numbers left plenty to be desired. He fanned in 36.4 percent of plate appearances and drew free passes just 5.4 percent of the time. Both figures are going to have to improve if he’s going to turn into a viable major league regular.

The Braves continue to look like one of the most talented teams in the NL, but if Camargo and Riley fall flat this year, it could help lead to a fall in the standings. The Braves could still bolster their third base situation via trade, though, as they’ve been connected to the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado and the Cubs’ Kris Bryant in recent months. It doesn’t appear either star will wind up on the move before the season, but perhaps Atlanta will revisit acquiring them if the team’s not happy with its production at third during the first half of the season.

Camp Battles: The Indians’ Outfield

By | at

For a team that has averaged 95 wins a year over the last four seasons, the Indians have consistently taken a mix-and-match approach to their outfield amidst this run of success.  Of course, having star infielders (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez) and a seemingly neverending pipeline of starting talent can allow a club to put less of a focus on its outfielders, and Cleveland would’ve ideally hoped that more of its highly-regarded outfield prospects would have taken the leap to everyday status by this point.  Still, the Tribe is now entering a fifth season of outfield uncertainty, and hoping that at least one of its question marks can enjoy a true breakout campaign.

Let’s begin with the one everyday lock in Oscar Mercado, though Mercado’s actual position on a game-by-game basis could be in flux.  The 25-year-old is coming off a solid rookie season that saw him perform decently well at the plate (95 wRC+, 96 OPS+) and impressively well with the glove in 698 2/3 innings in center field — +6 Outs Above Average, +5.8 UZR/150, +9 Defensive Runs Saved.  It’s safe to assume that Mercado will get the lion’s share of time in center again in 2020, though his ability to play all three positions will allow manager Terry Francona to shift other players into the outfield based on matchups.

Those other players?  It’s quite a long list:

  • Delino DeShields: Depending on your defensive metric of choice, DeShields was either slightly behind (UZR/150, DRS) Mercado in defensive value last season, or ahead (Statcast ranked DeShields tied for fifth among all outfielders in baseball with +12 OAA in 2019), plus DeShields has a longer track record of outstanding glovework.  It stands to reason that DeShields will handle center when Mercado is used in the corners, though it remains to be seen if DeShields will hit enough to move beyond mere fourth-outfielder duty.  The 27-year-old hit only .246/.326/.342 over 1936 career plate appearances with the Rangers, though it’s possible the change of scenery from Texas to Cleveland could help.
  • Domingo Santana: Signed to a one-year MLB contract (with a 2021 club option) earlier this week, Santana is decidedly not an option in center field, and even the corner outfield might be a stretch for a player who posted some of the worst defensive numbers of any player in baseball.  If Santana does indeed end up being used mostly as a designated hitter, the fact that he was signed at all could hint at the Tribe’s belief that…
  • Franmil Reyes is capable of better things as a right fielder after two seasons of mediocre fielding.  Acquired as part of the three-team Trevor Bauer blockbuster last summer, Reyes hit .249/.310/.512 with 37 home runs over 548 PA between the Padres and Indians in 2019.  The power is already there and the overall hitting potential has shown some flashes of improvement, and though Cleveland used Reyes almost exclusively at DH after the trade, the team surely hopes that they can get at least a couple of seasons’ worth of passable fielding work from Reyes to maximize his overall roster value (even if a mostly-DH role is ultimately in his future).
  • Jordan Luplow: Among all qualified hitters in 2019, only J.D. Martinez and Alex Bregman had a higher wRC+ against left-handed pitching than Luplow, who crushed southpaws to the tune of a .320/.439/.742 slash line and 198 wRC+ over 155 PA.  Even with other big righty bats like Santana and Reyes on hand, Luplow’s incredible splits will ensure that he’ll at least see platoon action, and Luplow has the added defensive edge of being able to play the corners decently well (and could even handle center field in a pinch).  If Luplow is to play a larger role, he’ll have to greatly improve his desultory .596 career OPS over 225 PA against right-handed pitching.
  • Greg Allen: The switch-hitting Allen offers a bit of balance to all of these right-handed hitters, though he hasn’t much from either side of the plate over 586 Major League plate appearances.  Allen can technically play all three outfield positions, though his glovework in the corners is much more highly regarded than his performance in center field.  Assuming at least one of the left-handed bats remaining on this listing emerges, Allen may find himself beginning the 2020 season in the minors.
  • Tyler Naquin: He likely won’t factor into the Opening Day picture, as much as Naquin is making excellent progress after suffering a torn ACL at the end of August.  Still, Naquin looks on pace to return on the shorter end of his original seven-to-nine month recovery period, which adds another left-handed bat to the Indians’ mix.  2019 was shaping up as easily Naquin’s best season since his 2016 rookie year, so a post-hype breakout might yet be in the cards for Naquin if he can get healthy.
  • Jake Bauers: Acquired as part of last offseason’s three-team deal that brought Carlos Santana back to Cleveland, Bauers’ first year with the Tribe was a disaster, as he posted an overall sub-replacement season (-0.4 fWAR) while struggling at both the plate and in the field.  Bauers is still only 24 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, so it’s clearly far too early for the Indians to give up on him, but he’ll be on a much shorter leash than last season.
  • Bradley Zimmer: Speaking of former top prospects, Zimmer missed almost all of the 2018-19 seasons due to shoulder surgery.  MLB.com ranked Zimmer as the 22nd-best prospect in baseball entering the 2017 campaign, but a forgettable rookie season and then his extended injury absence turned Zimmer from building block to afterthought.  He could be the biggest wild card of any player on this list, assuming Zimmer is healthy.
  • Daniel Johnson: A part of the three-player package the Indians received from the Nationals in the November 2018 Yan Gomes trade, Johnson’s first season in Cleveland’s farm system was a successful one, as he hit .290/.361/.507 over 547 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Johnson’s strong throwing arm and overall defense alone could earn him steady work as a fourth outfielder at the big league level, so if he can manage to hit as well, there’s certainly room for Johnson gain playing time with the Tribe.

One bit of good news for the Indians in sorting out all these players is that they don’t face any specific roster crunch, as Santana is the only one of these players who no longer has a minor league option.  That affords Francona and the front office the opportunity to freely evaluate these players during Spring Training without feeling forced into a tough roster choice based on team control.  Given the sheer number of outfielders on hand, it also wouldn’t be entirely shocking if the Tribe dealt away from this surplus.  If a few of these names really stand out during camp, Cleveland might feel comfortable enough in its depth to consider one of the other players expendable if another outfield-needy team came calling with an interesting trade offer.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By | at

Opening Day is about a month away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2020-21 free agent class.  These players are on track to become free agents after the 2020 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2020-21 open market earning power.  You can see the full list of 2020-21 MLB free agents here.

1.  Mookie Betts.  A superstar right fielder who doesn’t turn 28 until October, Betts has a shot at the largest contract in MLB history.  That record is held by Mike Trout, who agreed to a 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels one year ago.  Trout is better than Betts and everyone else, but he didn’t subject himself to an open-market bidding war.  Bryce Harper ($330MM) and Manny Machado ($300MM) did, albeit in a colder free agent environment than the one that just closed, which awarded Gerrit Cole a surprising $324MM.  Betts, a projected 6-WAR player for the 2020 Dodgers, could reasonably seek a ten-year term with an average annual value in the $36-40MM range.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Betts turned down an eight-year, $200MM extension offer from the Red Sox after the 2017 season, while WEEI’s Lou Merloni says Boston offered a contract in the “ten year, $300MM range” fresh off Betts’ 2018 MVP campaign.  According to Merloni, Betts’ camp countered at 12 years, $420MM.  I know there’s an undercurrent that Betts’ reported counteroffer is ridiculous, but in reality, it reflects his market value.  He would be justified in seeking an AAV north of Anthony Rendon’s $35MM, and a term no shorter than the 10+ years achieved by Trout, Harper, Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Joey Votto.

2.  J.T. Realmuto.  The largest free agent contract ever for a catcher is well within Realmuto’s sights.  The Phillies’ backstop, 29 in March, is one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball.  He also rates strongly in pitch framing and stolen base prevention.  With Russell Martin being paid through age 36 and Yadier Molina through age 37, Realmuto could aim to be locked up through age 35, which would require an unprecedented six-year deal and top the $100MM mark.  Joe Mauer and Buster Posey have reached that plateau in extensions, but it’s never been done by a catcher in free agency.

3.  George Springer.  Springer, 30, is a tough player to value given the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  According to Tony Adams’ calculations, 14.4% of Springer’s home plate appearances in 2017 included trash can banging.  The outfielder put up a strong ’17 season, but his finest year to date has been 2019.  MLB did not uncover evidence of the Astros stealing signs in 2019.

I’m no Astros apologist, but if I had to guess, I’d say the team’s sign stealing had minimal effect on Springer’s production at the plate.  He was an excellent hitter while cheating, and will likely continue to be while playing by the rules.  The stigma surrounding Springer and his teammates will surely carry into the 2020-21 offseason, and I could see fans having a longer memory on this than they do on steroids.  For today’s many cold, calculating front offices, Springer’s complicity in the Astros’ scheme may simply translate as a small bargain in free agency.  I imagine many teams would exchange a little bad PR for a 5-WAR player at a discount, especially since Springer didn’t actually hurt anyone.

4.  Marcus Semien.  Though he finished third in the AL MVP voting this year, Semien remains an underrated star shortstop for the Athletics.  Semien, 30 in September, jumped from a league average bat to a 137 wRC+ in 2019.  Paired with above average defense, Semien’s 7.6 WAR ranked fifth among MLB position players.  What will he do for a follow-up?  How much of Semien’s career-best power and walk rate will stick?  If Semien settles in as a 120 wRC+, 5-WAR player with his typical excellent durability, he’d be justified in seeking a six-year contract well in excess of $100MM.  Back in November, Jon Heyman suggested interest was mutual for an extension.

5.  Trevor Bauer.  Bauer, 29, has one elite season on his resume.  His 2018 season for the Indians included a 2.21 ERA, but otherwise he’s never been below 4.18.  After being traded to the Reds at the July deadline last year, Bauer limped to a 6.39 ERA over his final ten starts, allowing 12 home runs in 56 1/3 innings.  Bauer is known for his passion for his craft and his extensive work with Driveline Baseball.  He’s also one of the game’s most outspoken players, which you can read about here, or as it relates to the Astros scandal, here.  Bauer’s comments and tweets could certainly give some suitors pause, but, true to form, he’s got different ideas about free agency too.  Bauer has found a way to pay less than the typical 5% agency fee, which seems wise, and he’s also pledged to sign only one-year deals.  That could mean, in a given offseason, forgoing was much as $100MM in guaranteed money to maximize his annual take.  It’s a risky, fascinating proposition, especially for a pitcher.  If Bauer is true to his word, I expect he’ll land in the $20-30MM range on a one-year deal, depending on his season.  His overall earning power is much higher.

6.  Robbie Ray.  Born five months apart, Ray and Marcus Stroman make for an interesting comparison.  Their results over the last three years have been similar in terms of games started and ERA, but Ray employs a high strikeout, high walk, homer-prone approach for the Diamondbacks while Stroman succeeds via the groundball.  They’re both roughly 3-WAR pitchers for 2020, but Ray might be of slightly greater interest due to his ability to miss bats.

7.  Marcus Stroman.  Stroman’s 53.7% groundball rate ranked fifth among qualified starters in 2019, and he’s second in baseball for 2017-19.  In these homer-happy times, Stroman has allowed just 0.89 HR/9 over the last three years.  Both he and Ray will likely be looking to top the four-year, $68MM deals signed by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas, and five years isn’t out of the question.

8.  Justin Turner.  Over the past three seasons, Turner’s 145 wRC+ ranks eighth in baseball among qualified hitters – better than Anthony Rendon, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, or Mookie Betts.  That mark dipped to a still-strong 132 in 2019, so the Dodgers’ third baseman remains an excellent hitter at age 35.  As you might expect, his defense is slipping.  Turner could still land a three-year deal at a strong salary, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer since he received one previously.

9.  DJ LeMahieu.  The Yankees’ two-year, $24MM deal with LeMahieu turned out to be one of the best deals of the offseason, as he posted a career-best 5.4 WAR.  The infielder had at least flirted with those heights once before, in 2016.  But much like Marcus Semien, LeMahieu’s free agent price tag could fluctuate quite a bit depending on how 2020 plays out.  A 4 WAR campaign could lead to a four-year contract.

10.  Nick Castellanos.  I debated between Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna for this last spot.  But the free agent market clearly preferred Castellanos, who is 15+ months younger, lacked a qualifying offer, and finished strong after being traded to the Cubs.  Perhaps that script could be flipped after 2020, especially since Castellanos can get a QO and Ozuna can’t.  But Castellanos seems primed to put up big offensive numbers in the Reds’ lineup, which could compel him to opt out of his remaining three years and $48MM and try to get a four-year deal again.

At this point, I’m assuming that the 2021 club options for Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Kolten Wong will vest or be picked up.  If not, you’d have to assume the player had a poor season.  I’m also assuming for now that Giancarlo Stanton will not opt out of his remaining seven years and $218MM.

The Power Rankings are fluid, however, and any of these Honorable Mentions could find their way on: Andrelton Simmons, Marcell Ozuna, Mike Minor, James Paxton, Didi Gregorius, Kirby Yates, Liam Hendriks, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jose Quintana.

Camp Battles: Mets’ Rotation

By | at

We looked yesterday at the rotation battle in Phillies’ camp. Now, let’s head across the division and see what’s kicking with the Mets.

Last year’s Mets staff was loaded with talent, but didn’t necessarily produce to its ceiling. Even with Jacob deGrom running out to a second-straight Cy Young award and Zack Wheeler setting the stage for a $110MM contract — one he signed with those rival Phils — the unit managed only a  cumulative 4.25 ERA, good for a solid but underwhelming 12th in the game. The staff was still one of the top seven rotations leaguewide by measure of fWAR, but suffice to say the Mets’ best path to a successful season involves a starting group that out-produces virtually all others in baseball.

With Wheeler gone, new Mets skipper Luis Rojas has indicated that only deGrom is assured a rotation spot as camp gets underway. That characterization seems designed to motivate and avoid categorization of existing players. It’s all but impossible to imagine that Noah Syndergaard or Marcus Stroman will be banished to the bullpen. But it’s also a reflection of the fact that the Mets very clearly designed a battle/depth situation at the back of the rotation.

Let’s consider the depth chart …

  1. deGrom, duh
  2. Syndergaard, who has a ceiling as high as any pitcher in baseball
  3. Stroman, acquired last summer with the idea he’d replace the outgoing Wheeler

How does it shape up from there? Let’s look at things by group …

There’s little doubt that the plan is to keep two of these three hurlers in the rotation. If everyone is healthy, the leftover arm will presumably slide into a long relief role. The candidates:

  • Rick Porcello: You hate to say that a contract guarantees a particular role, but the Mets assuredly didn’t promise Porcello ten million bucks to slot his durable arm and craft-over-power stuff into the pen. That said, the veteran righty is looking to bounce back from a rough 5.52 ERA effort and isn’t promised anything (beyond that cash) in a must-win season for the Mets.
  • Steven Matz: The southpaw is the incumbent here and he owns a sturdy career 4.05 ERA. Trouble is, Matz has been dogged by health issues and some inconsistencies. Rojas spoke of some of the challenges facing Matz, who’ll need to earn his hold on a spot in the 5-man unit. He’ll earn $5MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.
  • Michael Wacha: It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out for the 28-year-old, whose general career trajectory has been fairly similar to that of Matz. Both have shown the ability to be high-grade starters but also endured stretches of subpar performance and related health issues. He’s only guaranteed $3MM but can earn quite a bit more through incentives, which only adds to the motivation.

Beyond that, things fall off and get quite a bit more speculative. Let’s start with the experienced big leaguers:

  • Seth Lugo/Robert Gsellman: Both of these swingmen have functioned as starters and relievers in the majors. The former morphed into a highly effective reliever last year and doesn’t seem likely to shift out of that role. There’s really no indication that Gsellman will be a serious rotation candidate either. Still, these names are worth considering as part of the broader picture.
  • Erasmo Ramirez: That’s roughly the same situation for the team’s last remaining pitcher with substantial MLB experience. Ramirez has had some real success in the bigs, though his performance — and opportunities — have dwindled in the past few seasons. Bringing him on was like signing a trust veteran catcher to take up residence at Triple-A: you hope you don’t really need him, but feel comfortable calling upon him if you have to.

Otherwise, no pitcher in camp has completed a full season of MLB service. Several have debuted, though it’s tough to say this smattering of arms is laden with upside:

  • Stephen Gonsalves: Once a rather well-regarded prospect, Gonsalves had an ugly 2018 debut and then struggled with arm issues last year. Just what kind of form he’s in remains to be seen … that’s why it’s a camp battle!
  • Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, Yefry Ramirez, Pedro Payano: These righties are all in the 25-26 age bracket. They’ve each been drubbed in limited big league chances and have never been seen as a high-ceiling hurlers. But they also each showed either an ability to generate solid results (Lockett, Oswalt) or nice strikeout numbers (Ramirez, Payano) in a tough Triple-A environment last year. Lockett and Oswalt have 40-man spots.
  • Rob Whalen: Another guy in that age range (he recently turned 26), Whalen has shown a fair bit of promise at times in the minors. He halted his career owing to depression and anxiety, thus missing the 2019 season, so it is not yet clear just where he’ll fit upon his return to the Mets organization.

If all that fails, or some youngster shows a spark, the Mets could look to a few would-be MLB debutantes. The slate of options includes some reasonably interesting names:

  • David Peterson: A 2017 first-rounder, Peterson logged a solid Double-A effort last year (116 innings of 4.19 ERA ball with 122:37 K/BB ratio). It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the Triple-A launching pad.
  • Franklyn Kilome: The former Phillies prospect is working back from Tommy John surgery and hasn’t yet appeared in a Mets uniform. He’s a former top-100 prospect, so … who knows?
  • Thomas Szapucki: The 25-year-old southpaw made his own return from TJS last year and showed he can still get minor-leaguers to swing and miss. He’s a fairly interesting guy to watch but has just one Double-A game under his belt. Importantly, like Kilome, he also presently occupies a 40-man roster spot.
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top