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Poll: NL Cy Young Favorite

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Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu was arguably the favorite for the National League Cy Young Award just a couple weeks ago, though he’s now in the throes of a rough stretch that could damage his chances. After shutting out the Diamondbacks over seven innings on Aug. 11, Ryu was the proud owner of an incredible 1.45 ERA for the season. But since then, Ryu has trudged through three subpar starts, in which he allowed 18 earned runs on 25 hits over 13 2/3 innings. For reference, Ryu yielded a combined 18 earned runs across his previous 19 starts prior to his adverse run this mnth.

Despite his recent struggles, there is no question Ryu has been among the most effective hurlers in the NL this year. The pending free agent’s 2.35 ERA through 157 1/3 innings paces all qualified NL starters, while his K/BB ratio of 6.85 comes in second.Ryu’s advanced numbers – a 3.17 ERA, 3.42 xFIP and a 3.84 FIP with 4.2 bWAR/4.0 fWAR – aren’t quite as marvelous, but they still help place him smack dab in the Cy Young conversation with a month remaining in the regular season.

If Ryu’s going to take home the NL’s best pitcher honors on the cusp of a trip to free agency, there are a few starters he’ll have to fend off, including reigning winner Jacob deGrom. While the 31-year-old deGrom hasn’t been as unhittable as he was a year ago, when he posted a 217-inning season with 9.6 bWAR/9.0 fWAR, he he has been tremendous nonetheless. DeGrom has logged a 2.66 ERA/2.77 FIP with 11.4 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR/5.4 bWAR through 169 frames. As of now, he looks to have a real chance of repeating in the Cy Young race.

Back-to-back Cy Youngs aren’t foreign to Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer, a three-time winner who nabbed the award in consecutive seasons from 2016-17. Scherzer is currently leading NL pitchers in WAR, having notched a 2.46 ERA/2.22 FIP with 12.62 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, though a relative lack of innings could be his undoing in the race. The 35-year-old has only thrown 142 2/3 after missing large portions of July and August with injuries. If you’re a voter who values dominance over innings, Scherzer should have a legitimate shot. Otherwise, considering health issues have prevented him from turning in a quality start since July 6, collecting a fourth Cy Young this year could be a tough task.

We’d be remiss to ignore that there are a few other potential winners in the NL, including two of Ryu’s teammates (Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw), a couple more Nationals (Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg), a pair of Reds (Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray), and the Braves’ Mike Soroka. Although the rookie Soroka is a ROY long shot because of the prodigious power Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has demonstrated, Cy Young voters may not be able to ignore his excellence. Even lights-out Padres closer Kirby Yates and Pirates game-ending lefty Felipe Vazquez could garner consideration if voters are willing to entertain a reliever winning, though the fact that they’re neither starters nor on contenders should help take them out of the running.

There’s clearly no shortage of candidates, evidenced in part by this top five leaderboard of notable stats among starters:

  • ERA – Ryu: 2.35; Soroka: 2.44; Scherzer: 2.46; deGrom: 2.66; Kershaw: 2.76
  • Innings – German Marquez: 174; Strasburg: 171; Madison Bumgarner: 169 2/3; deGrom: 169
  • Strikeouts per nine – Scherzer: 12.62; Robbie Ray: 11.82; deGrom: 11.4; Yu Darvish: 10.81; Buehler: 10.79
  • K/BB ratio – Scherzer: 7.41; Ryu: 6.85; Buehler: 6.61; deGrom: 5.49; Kershaw: 5.13
  • Wins (if those still matter to you) – Strasburg: 15; Castillo/Kershaw/Dakota Hudson: 13; Ryu: 12
  • bWAR – Scherzer: 5.5; deGrom: 5.4; Soroka: 5.3; Corbin: 5.1; S. Gray: 4.6
  • fWAR – Scherzer: 5.8; deGrom: 5.6; Buehler: 4.6; Strasburg: 4.5; Corbin: 4.3

It’s not easy to find a clear-cut favorite for NL Cy Young honors yet, which should make the last month of the campaign all the more intriguing if you’re interested in who collects season-ending hardware. With only a few weeks to go in 2019, which pitcher do you see as the favorite?

(Poll link for app users)

Kyle Seager’s Rebound Season

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Not much has gone right for the Mariners at the Major League level this season, as GM Jerry Dipoto’s ongoing plan to “re-imagine” the roster has cut a lot of payroll and brought a lot of young talent into the organization at the expense of big league wins.  Only five teams have fewer victories than the 56-78 Mariners, and every single team in the four major North American professional sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) has reached the postseason more recently than the M’s, who last tasted the playoffs in 2001.

With so much focus on the Mariners’ newer faces, one of the more positive development of the team’s season has been the re-emergence of a cornerstone.  Thanks to hand surgery during Spring Training, Kyle Seager didn’t make his season debut until May 25, and thus the durable third baseman will appear in fewer than 154 games for the first time since his 2011 rookie season.  Even in abbreviated fashion over 324 plate appearances, however, Seager looks to have reversed a very worrisome decline at the plate.

Kyle SeagerSeager hit .268/.340/.457 with 103 homers for the M’s between 2013-16, culminating in an outstanding 2016 campaign that saw him finish 12th in AL MVP voting on the basis of a .278/.359/.499 slash line and 30 home runs (all career bests) over 676 plate appearances.  That great year was followed up, however, by a less-impressive 2017 and then a disastrous 2018.

After breaking his left big toe in June, Seager made an ill-fated attempt to try and play through the injury, leading to the worst full-season numbers of his career.  Seager’s production went from okay in 2017 to well below-average (107 wRC+ to 84, 109 OPS + to 86) , as he managed only a .221/.273/.400 slash through 630 PA, while still swatting 22 home runs.

It would’ve been easy to just write off 2018 as a result of the toe injury, though between the earlier dropoff in 2017 and then his late start to 2019, the Mariners didn’t really know what to expect from Seager this year.  While still not at his 2016 peak, Seager has nonetheless rebounded to once again become a force at the plate.  He has 18 homers and a .250/.327/.503 slash line over 324 PA, fueled mostly by a recent surge (1.183 OPS over his last 132 PA) that has made Seager one of baseball’s top hitters over the last five weeks of action.

While he may not remain quite this red-hot, Seager’s production looks mostly sustainable.  His .354 xwOBA actually outpaces his .350 wOBA (which has been a consistent trend for him since Statcast began measuring wOBA/xwOBA back in 2015).  His exit velocity and hard-hit ball percentage are both well above league averages, and Seager’s 38.9% showing in the latter category represents a new career high.  Always something of a fly-ball hitter, Seager’s improved contact has made him the latest batter to benefit from MLB’s homer-happy reality, as his 18% homer rate is by far the highest of his career.  He has also shown more patience, with a 9.9% walk rate this season after a career-worst 6.0% in 2018.

Beyond just a healed toe, Seager also took steps to improve his diet and offseason training last winter, and the early results bode well for him to remain a valuable player heading into 2020, his age-32 season.  His bounce-back performance in 2019 could also revive some trade value, though the terms of Seager’s contract will be a notable obstacle.

Signed to a seven-year, $100MM contract extension by former M’s general manager Jack Zduriencik prior to the 2015 season, Seager is still owed $19MM in 2020 and $18MM in 2021, with a $15MM club option for 2022.  That club option becomes guaranteed, however, in the event of a trade, effectively making it a poison pill rival teams are unlikely to swallow for a player who will be 34 on Opening Day 2022.  The Mariners have been willing to cover money in other trades of veterans over the past year, though between the contracts already dealt and Felix Hernandez’s big salary coming off the books after the season, the M’s have already significantly reduced their future financial commitments.  The team has just under $87MM committed to payroll in 2020.

Even the fact that Seager can again be considered something of a trade chip, however, represents a big step forward for the third baseman given his issues over the previous two seasons.  Since Hernandez is expected to depart, Seager will become the longest-tenured Mariner, and perhaps a veteran bridge to the team’s next window of competitive baseball.  Dipoto has insisted that his rebuilding efforts won’t be long-lasting, so there’s still a chance that Seager’s career revival could take him into a long-awaited postseason appearance while still wearing a Mariners uniform.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Poll: Superstars For Sale?

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ESPN scribe Jeff Passan floated a very interesting tidbit in his latest column Wednesday: There’s a belief among rival executives that the Red Sox, Indians and Cubs will at least be willing to listen to trade offers for their franchise players during the upcoming winter. That means any of Boston’s Mookie Betts, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor or Chicago’s Kris Bryant could change hands once the offseason rolls around. It’s far from a guarantee anyone from the group will wind up on the move, but the idea that they might should make hot stove season all the more interesting.

The only member of the trio with fewer than two years of team control remaining is Betts, who will enter his final season of arbitration eligibility over the winter. The 26-year-old right fielder is just a season removed from earning AL MVP honors, which helped him land a historic $20MM payday to avoid arbitration last winter. The 2019 version of Betts hasn’t been as stellar as the MVP-winning player, but that’s not a knock on his performance this season so much as a compliment to what he did a year ago, when he amassed an eyebrow-raising 10.4 fWAR. Betts is up to 4.8 in that category this year, having slashed a strong .282/.384/.494 with 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 622 plate appearances.

Just a year from winning their latest World Series title, why would the Red Sox possibly move Betts? They’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year, though a trip back to the postseason in 2020 hardly looks out of the question. However, Betts has indicated on multiple occasions that he’d like to test free agency after next season, when he could reel in one of the all-time richest contracts in the sport. For the Red Sox, trading Betts a year before a potential journey to the open market would help the club replenish its farm system to some degree. The Red Sox only came in 22nd place in Baseball America’s most recent talent rankings.

The Indians, on the other hand, boast the game’s 10th-best system, though they’re incapable of spending to the extent the Red Sox can. That means Lindor is quite likely to end up elsewhere in the coming years. Mr. Smile will be a free agent after 2021, but it would behoove the Indians to get something for him prior to then. In the meantime, the 25-year-old Lindor is sure to collect a notable raise over his current $10.55MM salary when he reaches arbitration for the penultimate time during the offseason. Lindor perhaps hasn’t been quite as great as he was in 2018, a career-high 7.6-fWAR campaign, but his 4.3 mark and .300/.353/.532 line with 24 homers and 19 steals through 522 PA are mighty impressive nonetheless. Needless to say, teams will line up for the elite shortstop if small-market Cleveland goes with the agonizing decision to make him available in the coming months.

And then there’s Bryant, yet another former MVP. The Boras client joins Lindor as another all-world performer who’s slated for his second-last trip through arbitration in a few months. Bryant, 27, is well on his way to another raise (he’s currently on a $12.9MM salary), having batted .282/.379/.521 and smashed 29 dingers over 552 trips to the plate. Whether the Cubs would truly consider parting with Bryant is up in the air, but they are amid their second somewhat disappointing season (albeit one that looks as if it will culminate in yet another playoff berth), and waving goodbye to the third baseman/outfielder would go a long way toward aiding them in bolstering their system. It’s definitely a below-average group, according to BA, which places it 29th in baseball.

We’re still a couple months from the offseason rearing its head, but if anyone from this trio hits the block, it should make for an incredibly interesting winter of rumors. Do you expect any of them to actually change teams after the season?

(Poll link for app users)

Arguably The Most Underrated Athletic

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It seems as if the Athletics’ lineup is loaded with underappreciated hitters. How many really appreciate the excellence of third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien, first baseman Matt Olson or center fielder Ramon Laureano – four of the most valuable players in the game? If that group’s not truly getting its due, it’s no surprise outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha is also relatively anonymous on the national stage. After all, he’s a 30-year-old who has changed hands on multiple occasions since the Marlins chose him in the seventh round of the 2010 draft, and he’s just now amid the best season of his career. But what a season this has been for Canha, who’s quietly helping guide the Athletics toward their second consecutive playoff berth.

After joining the Miami organization, Canha found his way to Oakland back in December 2014 after the Rockies chose him in the Rule 5 Draft. The Rox immediately traded the Northern California native to his stomping grounds for right-hander Austin House and cash considerations. Now, it’s safe to say that’ll go down as yet another shrewd move in a career full of them for A’s executive vice president Billy Beane. House never pitched in the majors, while Canha emerged as a useful part-timer for the A’s even before his breakout this season.

The right-handed Canha debuted in the bigs in 2015, the season following his trade to Oakland, and immediately became a solid producer for the club. By measure of wRC+, Canha was an above-average hitter in two of four seasons from 2015-18. He totaled 2.0 fWAR in 411 plate appearances just a year ago on the strength of what was then a personal-best line of .249/.328/.449 (113 wRC+) with 17 home runs. Valuable contributions, to be sure, but Canha has taken it to another level this year and helped the A’s to yet another contending season. His output has been especially important for a team that has been forced to overcome long-term injuries to fellow outfielders Laureano and Stephen Piscotty.

As marvelous as Chapman, Semien, Olson and Laureano have been this year, no Athletic has been stronger at the plate than Canha. His whopping 149 wRC+ easily outdoes the rest of his teammates’, and ranks 11th in the league among those with 300 or more plate appearances. Some of the names in Canha’s company include Fernando Tatis Jr., Pete Alonso and Carlos Santana. Not bad for someone whom the majority of baseball fans have probably never heard of.

But what’s behind Canha’s prodigious .278/.392/.550 line and his 23 home runs in 375 trips to the plate? A massive increase in walks is the most obvious source. Canha entered the season with a lifetime walk rate of 6.6 percent in 1,127 PA. The number has skyrocketed to 13.3 this year. He’s swinging at far fewer pitches than before, especially outside the strike zone, which has led to more free passes.

Walk uptick aside, it’s not as easy to find reasons for Canha’s sudden outburst. Compared to last season, he’s hitting fewer line drives, more groundballs, more infield flies and, per FanGraphs, making less hard contact and more soft contact. All of that should lead to less power, yet Canha’s ISO (.272) is 72 points above last year’s figure and 88 points better than the mark he entered 2019 sporting. It helps, of course, that Canha has gone to left field more. He came into the year with a pull percentage of 44.3, which has leapt to 53.7 – a number that ranks sixth in the majors.

Canha’s also capable of doing damage against both right- and left-handed pitchers, but he hasn’t necessarily wowed Statcast when he has made contact this season. His average exit velocity (88.7 mph) only ranks in the league’s 42nd percentile, while his hard-hit rate sits in the 53rd range. Canha has posted a .393 weighted on-base average that’s among the best in the game and easily trumps his .356 expected wOBA. However, the latter figure still falls into the game’s 77th percentile.

While Canha’s offense has been his calling card this year, he has also helped the A’s cause on defense, having amassed double-digit appearances at all three outfield spots and at first base. The overwhelming majority of Canha’s work has come in the outfield, where he has used his above-average speed to combine for 4 Outs Above Average, a pair of Defensive Runs Saved and a 0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. The entire package has been worth 3.7 bWAR and 3.1 fWAR, all for a salary of just over $2MM. Canha has been one of the most cost-efficient players in the game this season, then, and that’s all the more crucial for low-budget Oakland. With another two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, Canha could continue as one of the club’s premier (and perhaps most underrated) players for at least a little while longer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Better Building Block: Pete Alonso Or Yordan Alvarez?

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With just over a month remaining in the regular season, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Astros designated hitter/outfielder Yordan Alvarez look like the clear-cut front-runners for Rookie of the Year honors in their respective leagues. Alonso has been brilliant all season, and his excellence this summer has helped lead the Mets out of despair and into National League wild-card contention. Alvarez, meanwhile, has given the already loaded Astros yet another tremendous hitter in a lineup chock-full of them since the club promoted him to the majors June 9. But which of the two would you rather have for the long haul?

At least in terms of home runs, the 24-year-old Alonso has enjoyed one of the greatest first seasons in recent history. The Mets have been around since 1962, but Alonso already holds the franchise’s single-season record for most homers in a year. Alonso swatted his 42nd of the year Tuesday, thus helping him to an overall line of .265/.367/.596 across 556 plate appearances. The right-handed swinger has shown no vulnerability while facing either same-sided or lefty hurlers, evidenced by a 147 wRC+ against the former and a 149 mark versus the latter. Alonso’s 148 wRC+ ranks eighth among qualified hitters, while his 4.2 fWAR ties him for 23rd with Cubs third baseman and former NL MVP Kris Bryant. Plus, Alonso’s .382 expected weighted on-base average falls in the league’s 92nd percentile, per Statcast, and doesn’t sit too far behind his real wOBA of .398.

Statcast has looked even more favorably on the 22-year-old Alvarez’s production, giving him an eyebrow-raising .421 xwOBA that ranks fifth in the majors among those with 100 or more trips to the plate. Only offensive luminaries Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz and Christian Yelich have outdone Alvarez in that category. Trout and Yellich have already won MVPs, while Bellinger could join them in the next couple months. Meantime, Alvarez’s actual wOBA (.456) outdoes every other batter’s by at least 10 points. His line of .329/.420/.703 with 21 homers in just 257 PA amounts to a 190 wRC+, which ranks first out of those with 200-plus trips to the plate, while he has already racked up 2.9 fWAR.

The lefty-hitting Alvarez, like Alonso, has brutalized pitchers of either handedness (199 wRC+ against righties, 170 wRC+ versus southpaws). Although Alvarez’s .367 batting average on balls in play seems unlikely to hold as he moves forward, it’s clear the stacked Astros have yet another world-class offensive building block on their hands.

MLB.com placed Alvarez 23rd among the game’s prospects at the time of his promotion, while Alonso was 51st shortly before the Mets elected to place him on their season-opening roster. It’s evident now they deserved better than even those high rankings. Alvarez seems likely to go down as one of the top heist pickups in recent memory, as the Astros acquired him from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields back in August 2016, while Alonso has been a steal of a draft pick for New York – which landed him in the second round in 2016. These two can already count themselves among baseball’s fiercest sluggers just a few months into their respective careers, and they’re likely on their way to ROY honors as a result. Who’s the better building block, though?

(Poll link for app users)

Recently Minted Free Agents With MLB Experience

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With this year’s August acquisition period drawing to a close on Saturday, contending teams need to act fast if they want to add players with postseason eligibility to their organizations. Non-contenders may have organizational depth needs to address as well, particularly those that end up parting with veterans before the end of August.

Accordingly, it seemed a worthwhile undertaking to pull together all of the most recently minted free agents with MLB experience — those that have been released in the past month or so. In addition to waiver-wire candidates — Nick Martini and any new additions to the wire that might arise — these are the presently available possibilities. Unlike players that have been waiting on the open market since earlier in the season, most of those listed here have been playing competitively against top-level competition for most or all of the season.

Without further ado:

Did we miss anyone? Let us know in the comments!

Free Agent Stock Watch: Catchers

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Pittsburgh is among the teams that will be looking for help behind the plate during the upcoming offseason. The problem for the Pirates and others is that there’s a pittance of slam-dunk starters who are scheduled to reach the open market. With just over a month left in the regular season, here’s a rundown of how the game’s soon-to-be free-agent backstops have performed this year…

The Gold Standard:

  • Yasmani Grandal, Brewers: It was a strange offseason last winter for Grandal. Even though the Dodgers issued him a qualifying offer, he still landed a proposal in the four-year, $60MM range from the Mets. But Grandal passed, which forced him to eventually settle for the Brewers’ one-year, $18.25MM guarantee. The deal includes a $16MM mutual option for 2020, but Grandal’s sure to decline his half of it on the heels of another quality season. The switch-hitting 30-year-old has yet again paired easily above-average offense with well-regarded work behind the plate. Grandal’s .253/.380/.460 line with 20 home runs in 503 plate appearances has kept him among the game’s premier offensive catchers, while he’s near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. The Brewers won’t be able to issue Grandal a qualifying offer after the season, which only makes it more likely that he’ll reel in a lucrative multiyear deal over the winter.

Regulars:

  • Jason Castro, Twins: Castro’s closing out a three-year, $24MM with Minnesota, which – aside from an injury-ruined 2018 – has gotten decent overall production from the former Astro. This year’s version is showing more power than ever, with a career-high .228 ISO. Castro, 32, also boasts a .244/.327/.472 line with 12 HRs through 224 PA. Known primarily for his defensive prowess, Castro’s having another fine season in that realm. A return to Minnesota in 2020 seems unlikely, though, as fellow Twins catcher Mitch Garver has emerged as one of baseball’s supreme breakout players this season.
  • Travis d’Arnaud, Rays: The Mets released d’Arnaud, a former star prospect, early in the season. Their loss has been an enormous gain for the Rays, who had been counting on offseason pickup Mike Zunino to perform respectably as their No. 1 catcher. Zunino has been awful, however, which has allowed d’Arnaud to put himself back on the map in Tampa Bay. The 30-year-old has batted a sturdy .261/.328/.469 with 13 homers in 271 attempts as a Ray, and has finally stayed healthy after multiple injury-laden seasons. Although d’Arnaud is more a middle-of-the-pack defender than a high-end one, it nonetheless appears he’s on his way to a solid offseason payday.
  • Robinson Chirinos, Astros: If you’re looking for some affordable offensive pop from your catcher, Chirinos is a good choice. Just don’t expect defensive brilliance from the 35-year-old. Chirinos, whom the Rangers non-tendered last winter, has given the Astros a 373 PA of .236/.342/.428 hitting with 14 long balls. It’s the fifth straight season of above-average production at the plate from Chirinos.

On the Fringe:

  • Brian McCann, Braves: Now 35, the seven-time All-Star can still play. In his return to Atlanta, the site of his greatest individual success, McCann has hit .264/.336/.423 and smacked 10 homers in 274 trips to the plate, though the lefty’s unplayable versus same-handed pitchers. Defensively, although McCann has thrown out a mere 14 percent of would-be base thieves, Baseball Prospectus has looked kindly on his overall work. McCann should get another guaranteed one-year deal in the offseason if he wants, but perhaps he’ll decide to call it quits.
  • Martin Maldonado, Astros: Maldonado’s defensive skills are well-documented, but whether he hits enough to serve as a regular is debatable. The 33-year-old has batted a less-than-stellar .210/.284/.360 in 319 PA this season, but it does seem likely he’ll get a major league deal over the winter. He turned down two years and $12MM from Houston last offseason before signing with Kansas City for $2.5MM, after all, and was then in demand around this year’s trade deadline. Two teams (the Cubs and then the Astros) swung deals for him last month.

Potentially Useful 30-Somethings:

  • Alex Avila, Diamondbacks: A team looking for a capable backup could do a lot worse than Avila. He has been a better-than-average defender two years running, per BP’s FRAA metric, and has yet again performed well with the bat. The walk-heavy lefty has drawn free passes just under 20 percent of the time this season en route to a .223/.377/.488 showing through 151 PA. Avila’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old who has extreme difficulty against same-handed pitchers, so he’s not going to come at a high price.
  • Russell Martin, Dodgers: Martin has been one of the premier catchers in baseball for a large portion of his career, which began in 2006, but the 36-year-old’s offensive efficacy is fading. The always patient Martin has gotten on base at a .330 clip this year, though his average is barely above the Mendoza line, his slugging percentage is a point under .300 and his ISO is below .100. At the very least, though, Martin’s a still-useful defender and a well-respected teammate.
  • Jonathan Lucroy, Cubs: Lucroy may be able to get a major league contract in the offseason, as he did when the Cubs signed him this month after the Angels released him, but his days as a viable starter are clearly over. Formerly an elite all-around backstop, the 33-year-old falls well short as a hitter and defender nowadays. However, Lucroy’s modest-looking line of .245/.313/368 in 300 PA does amount to an 83 wRC+, which is roughly average relative to his position.
  • Matt Wieters, Cardinals: Dubbed “Mauer with Power” during his days as a super-prospect with the Orioles, Wieters has seldom lived up to the hype in the majors. Wieters was a legit starter for a while, granted, but the 33-year-old’s now amid his second straight season as a part-timer. The 33-year-old has been a usable backup at the plate, evidenced by his .219/.272/.439 line and 10 HRs through 169 PA, though his numbers are hardly great (or even good). Wieters’ defensive output – at least by the advanced metrics – has also continued to lag. He has, however, thrown out an eye-popping 44 percent of would-be base-stealers. But Wieters had to settle for a minors deal last winter after a similarly productive 2018, and he may have to do the same during the upcoming winter.
  • Welington Castillo, White Sox: This season has been an utter disaster for Castillo, a normally decent hitter who currently owns a .203/.270/.368 line with minus-1.0 fWAR over 200 trips to the plate. Castillo’s technically not a surefire free agent, as the White Sox hold an $8MM club option for him for 2020, but they’ll decline it in favor of a $500K buyout. While Castillo, now 32, secured a two-year, $15MM guarantee last time he reached the open market, a major league contract may not be a lock this time around.
  • Francisco Cervelli, Braves: As with Castillo, Cervelli’s a once-successful backstop who’s coming off a sizable contract (three years, $31MM). The Pirates released Cervelli from that deal last week, though he quickly landed on his feet on a majors pact with the Braves. Whether he’ll haul in another guaranteed pact in the offseason is up in the air. After all, the 33-year-old has a long history of concussion issues – a brain injury has shelved him for most of this season – and hasn’t been productive in 2019. Cervelli’s just a .220/.298/.314 hitter with a single HR in 132 trips this year.
  • Stephen Vogt, Giants: The switch-hitting Vogt has somewhat quietly been one of the majors’ best comeback stories this season. A two-time All-Star with the Athletics from 2013-17, Vogt missed all of last season with the Brewers because of what looked like career-threatening shoulder problems. He didn’t give up, though, returning to the Bay Area in the offseason on a non-guaranteed deal with the Giants. They brought Vogt up May 1, and all he has done since then is slash .275/.329/.523 with eight homers and a personal-high .249 ISO in 222 PA. Between that and his highly regarded behind-the-scenes presence, the soon-to-be 35-year-old Vogt will draw offseason interest, though a major league deal could be difficult to land.
  • Austin Romine, Yankees: Romine has been stuck in the shadow of Gary Sanchez in New York, but he has been a decent offensive backup twice in a row. The 30-year-old has overcome a glacial start this season to post a .268/.290/.408 line in 187 PA, though he has drawn walks at just a 3.2 percent clip. While the FRAA metric graded Romine favorably from 2017-18, he has been a minus in that category this season. Still, whether with the Yankees or another team, the 30-year-old figures to get a guaranteed contract in the winter.

Iffy Option Decisions:

  • Yan Gomes, Nationals: Gomes, a former Indian, was in the throes of an abysmal season as recently as mid-July, but he’s starting to heat up. Will it be enough for the Nationals to pick up his option for $9MM and not buy him out for $1MM? We’ll see. The overall line of .219/.325/.342 with six homers in 274 PA obviously isn’t what the Nats had in mind when they acquired Gomes, nor is the mediocre defense he has given them. However, if Washington does turn down the option, it’s doubtful the 32-year-old Gomes will have much trouble finding work in the offseason.

August Acquisition Period Ends On Saturday

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We have previously examined the limited means by which teams can add players during the month of August. The rules remain the same when the calendar flips to September, except that newly acquired players can no longer participate in the postseason.

If teams want to add a postseason-eligible player, they’ll have to do so on or before midnight eastern time this coming Saturday. The end-of-August rush won’t be nearly as exciting as it has been in recent years, since there are no more August trades of MLB contracts, but it could still force some action. Teams contemplating whether to expose veteran players to waivers will face a decision point, knowing that those players won’t hold as much appeal if they’re not eligible for the postseason with a new organization.

There’s also still some possibility for surprise opportunities. Most teams placing claims on veterans will be doing so with a focus on immediate needs. But some non-contenders may look at controllable assets. And it’s even conceivable that some interesting players will become available if a contender or two decides to free a roster spot and/or shed excess salary to facilitate another acquisition.

Which players might be candidates to change hands? We’ve also recently listed many such possibilities. Since we compiled that list, several players have indeed hit the wire and ended up being claimed. That includes Billy Hamilton (Braves from Royals), Cory Gearrin (Yankees from Mariners), and Jared Hughes (Phillies from Reds). Others (Adeiny Hechavarria, Chris Iannetta, Jhoulys Chacin) have cleared waivers and hit the open market. And there are a few still-pending waiver-claim candidates, including Nick Martini (Athletics) and Aaron Altherr (Mets).

So … what happens if a player is placed on waivers and one or more contenders have interest? They’ll have to decide whether to place a claim, which will mean taking over the remainder of the contract obligations, or whether to wait and hope the player clears waivers and decides to sign with them as a free agent. If multiple teams place claims on the same player, the commissioner’s office will assign the claim based upon its rules. Claims are processed two days after waivers are sought, at 1 pm eastern time, meaning we could see a bit of a Thursday rush to make players available by Saturday.

The waiver priority system is quite simple: it’s based upon winning percentage. The lower team always has dibs. While the old rules looked first to the league (National or American) of the team seeking waivers, league status now functions only as a tiebreaker if two clubs with the same record each make a claim.

Priority shifts with any move in the standings, so there can and will still be some shuffling. But as of today, this is the order of waiver priority that will govern. (And yes, this also constitutes a current look at the reverse standings for purposes of determining draft order.)

  1. Tigers (39-89)
  2. Orioles (43-88)
  3. Royals (46-86)
  4. Marlins (47-83)
  5. Blue Jays (53-80)
  6. Pirates (55-76)
  7. Mariners (56-76)
  8. Rockies (59-73)
  9. White Sox (60-70)
  10. Padres & Reds (61-69) (tie)
  11. Angels (63-70)
  12. Rangers (64-68)
  13. Giants (65-66)
  14. Diamondbacks (66-66)
  15. Brewers (67-64)
  16. Mets (67-63)
  17. Phillies (68-62)
  18. Cubs (69-61)
  19. Red Sox (70-62)
  20. Cardinals (72-58)
  21. Nationals (73-57)
  22. Rays (76-56)
  23. Athletics (75-55)
  24. Indians (76-55)
  25. Braves (80-53)
  26. Twins (79-51)
  27. Astros (85-47)
  28. Dodgers & Yankees (86-47) (tie)

Does MLB’s Options Structure Need To Change?

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Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija recently crossed the 10-year threshold in terms of Major League service time and took the occasion to voice concerns about the difficulty today’s younger players will have in reaching that same milestone (link via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). More specifically, Samardzija wondered aloud how any young player can be expected to reach 10 years of big league service when modern front offices utilize the final spots on the MLB roster as a carousel of various relievers and bench players in an effort to keep their rosters fresh.

“These guys are being productive for our team but at the same time only getting 70 to 80 service days a season,” said Samardzija. “It’s going to take them till they’re 34, 35 or more to get six years, and then 40 to get 10 years. … We need to make sure one option can’t be 10 callups or call-downs where we can use them as swing guys who don’t accumulate any time.”

Samardzija’s precise wording is perhaps a bit embellished, but the sentiment is indeed reflective of today’s baseball climate. Players are optioned back and forth between the Majors and minors at a higher clip than ever before. The shift from a 15-day to a 10-day injured list — one that, notably, will be reversed for pitchers beginning in 2020 — in particular, has emboldened front offices to use brief trips to the IL as a means of resting pitchers and getting fresh arms into their bullpens or rotations when the need (often) arises. Rather than carrying a largely set seven- or eight-man bullpen, many clubs have only four to six set relievers and round out the final bullpen spots with a parade of changing faces.

As the league’s option structure is currently constructed, there’s nothing wrong with doing any of that. Maintaining that level of agility on a club’s roster is now generally viewed as a sound baseball practice, and with good reason. It’s easier to manage workloads in the minor leagues, and a constant churn at the back of the bullpen prevents clubs from having to trot the same pitcher out to the mound on three or even four consecutive days.

At the same time, the increased prevalence of optioning players in this fashion will eventually only increase the number of big leaguers who exhaust their minor league options, and that eventuality will the have the opposite effect of reducing teams’ roster flexibility. And for the players, of course, it does indeed become more difficult to garner substantial service time. The Yankees have sent left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. back to Triple-A on seven different occasions this season. The Twins have done the same with Kohl Stewart. That’s a far better fate than merely sitting in the minors and not accruing any MLB time, but it’s also easy to see why players would argue that it’s a frustrating and suboptimal process that could be tweaked.

As things currently stand, players receive three option years (and, in rare cases stemming from significant minor league injuries, sometimes a fourth). Any player on the 40-man roster who is sent down to the minors and spends more than 20 days there is considered to have used an option year. He can be shuttled to and from the minors as often as the team deems fit that season all under the umbrella of that single option year.

As Schulman notes in the Samardzija interview, this very infrastructure is among the myriad topics being discussed as the league and the players’ union are in the early stages of collective bargaining negotiations. The current CBA runs through the 2021 season, so it’s unlikely that there’ll be any immediate changes to such a core component of roster construction, but the rising number of issues the players are bringing to the table in labor talks does seem like a portent for change in some respects. Surely, only a fraction of those issues will result in meaningful change, and the minor league option infrastructure is but one piece of the much broader topic of service time.

(Poll link for app users)

Rafael Devers’ Star Turn

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Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.

Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.

Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.

How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.

Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.

To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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