Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Camp Battles: Phillies’ Rotation

By | at

Finishing an even 81-81, the Phillies were a disappointment in 2019, in part because of their rotation. Their starting staff wound up 17th in the majors in ERA, 20th in K/BB ratio and 23rd in fWAR. The subpar production from the Phillies’ group of starters contributed to the team’s eighth straight year without a playoff berth, but the club has since since made a real effort to improve its rotation and better its chances of earning a postseason spot in 2020.

The Phillies’ biggest move of the winter was signing right-hander Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM guarantee. He’s now near the top of a staff that’ll also include Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta from one through three. Right-hander Zach Eflin’s set to occupy the fourth position, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, which leaves a handful of names vying for the last place in the Phillies’ rotation. Touted prospect Spencer Howard could make his debut this year, but the Phillies will bring him along slowly, so it doesn’t seem he’s in the running for a season-opening rotation spot. Here’s a look at those who are…

  • Vince Velasquez, RHP: The 27-year-old Velasquez throws hard (around 94 mph), but his ERA has hung around the 5.00 mark in recent seasons. He worked out of the Phillies’ rotation and bullpen last year, striking out just under 10 batters per nine (against 3.11 BB/9) from the team’s rotation. Problem is that Velasquez didn’t do well to prevent runs in either role. He ended up with a 4.91 ERA/5.21 FIP over 117 1/3 innings.
  • Nick Pivetta, RHP: Pivetta was an effective starter for the Phillies as recently as 2018, but the wheels came off last season. He concluded the year with an ugly 5.38 ERA/5.47 FIP in 93 2/3 innings, some of which came as a reliever, though he did continue to post an average fastball upward of 94 mph.
  • Ranger Suarez, LHP: The 24-year-old Suarez didn’t make a single start for the Phillies last season, but he did turn in a 3.14 ERA/3.89 FIP with 7.77 K/9, 2.22 BB/9 and a 55.1 percent groundball rate in 48 2/3 innings from their bullpen. Suarez does have quite a bit of starting experience in various levels of the minors, though. He owns a 4.02 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 87 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball.
  • Cole Irvin, LHP: Irvin, 26, made his major league debut last season, mostly working from the Phillies’ bullpen. He tossed 41 2/3 frames of 5.83 ERA/5.06 FIP ball with 6.7 K/9 and 2.81 BB/9. Irvin was far better as a Triple-A pitcher from 2018-19, during which he logged a 3.07 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 255 innings.
  • Damon Jones, LHP: Jones, 25, was an 18th-round pick of the Phillies in 2017 who hasn’t gotten to the majors yet, but he does rank as their 20th-best prospect at MLB.com. However, Jones had difficulty across a 34-inning Triple-A debut last season, when he walked just under seven batters per nine. Overall, Jones has issued free passes to a bit under five hitters per nine in the minors, so despite a lofty K/9 (11.1), it’s difficult to imagine him opening the season in Philly’s rotation if he doesn’t significantly improve his control.

This Date In Transactions History: Hoz To Pads

By | at

Two years ago today, a struggling San Diego club doled out what was then the largest contract in franchise history. The Padres added free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer on an eight-year, $144MM deal, no doubt hoping he’d help legitimize a team that was then stuck in an 11-year playoff drought. That skid has continued since the Padres picked up Hosmer, however.

The Royals made Hosmer the third overall pick in 2008, and he remained among the game’s most prized prospects during his time in their farm system. Hosmer further upped his stock with a quality rookie season in the majors in 2011, the beginning of an up-and-down career. He wound up turning in two sub-replacement-level seasons as a Royal, yet the highs were high when they came. Hosmer took home four Gold Gloves in KC, earned an All-Star nod in 2016 and was an important part of the franchise’s first World Series-winning season (2015) since 1985.

The Royals’ descent in the standings began in 2016, the year after their title-winning campaign, as Hosmer was again closer to replacement level than truly valuable. But Hosmer rebounded in a big way the next season, batting a personal-best .318/.385/.498 with career highs in home runs (25) and fWAR (4.0). Thanks in part to his production that year and his well-regarded clubhouse presence, the Royals – despite being at the start of a rebuild – wanted to keep Hosmer when he became a free agent. In the end, though, they couldn’t keep him from heading to San Diego, which hauled in Hosmer after he remained on the open market for much longer than expected.

At least during the initial stages of his contract, the Padres were banking on 2017-esque production from Hosmer. Unfortunately for them, Hosmer has been more Hyde than Jekyll in their uniform. He accounted for negative fWARs in each of his first two seasons as a Padre, totaling minus-0.5 over a team-leading 1,344 trips to the plate. His .259/.316/.412 line as a Padre has been 7 percent worse than the league-average offensive output, according to wRC+.

Based on his numbers as a Padre, it’s fair to say the Hosmer signing has been regrettable for the Padres. And it has caused other complications, including with Wil Myers. While Myers was the Padres’ first baseman when they signed Hosmer, he then had to shift to the outfield and hasn’t offered much production since. Consequently, Myers has been the subject of trade rumors for multiple years, including at this very moment. He’s a poor fit on a team that’s committed to Hosmer for the foreseeable future, and general manager A.J. Preller has worked to get rid of Myers as a result.

The fact that the Padres also have quite a bit of payroll tied up in Hosmer only adds to their problems. Their combined $444MM guarantees to Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado – whose $300MM pact trumps Hosmer’s – might say otherwise, but they’ve never ranked among the freest spenders in the game (though they are on track for a franchise-high payroll in 2020). Every dollar counts in the Padres’ situation, so squandering nine figures on a player who has had so much trouble producing in their uniform could have negative ramifications for years.

Although they can’t be pleased with what Hosmer has given them thus far, he’s unlikely to go anywhere. Agent Scott Boras included full no-trade rights in the first three seasons of Hosmer’s deal when he negotiated it, for one. The contract also has an opt-out clause after the fifth year, though the way things have gone lately, it’s hard to imagine Hosmer walking away from the Padres. He’ll certainly be in San Diego in 2020, when the club will hope his age-30 campaign goes far better than his previous couple seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Camp Battles: Athletics’ Second Base Job

By | at

The Athletics boast one of baseball’s best infield trios: third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien and first baseman Matt Olson are among the sport’s very best as their respective positions. It’s easy to argue that Oakland is 75 percent of the way to the best infield in the game — but it’s that remaining 25 percent that will be one of the key areas of focus for the organization this spring.

Oakland’s second base position is wide open, although that doesn’t mean that the club is short on candidates. Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, Tony Kemp, Sheldon Neuse and Rule 5 pick Vimael Machin are among the candidates to join that all-world infield mix. If the Oakland organization isn’t content with the options already in house, they could look to a free-agent market that still includes veterans Brian Dozier, Scooter Gennett and Tim Beckham. The merits of further muddying an already crowded mix can be debated, but the A’s at least looked into Jason Kipnis before he signed with the Cubs, so perhaps a lefty bat like Gennett would be of some interest.

Complicating the matter for Oakland decision-makers is that four of the five incumbent possibilities are unable to be sent to the minors; each of Barreto, Mateo and Kemp is out of minor league options. Machin would have to be put on waivers and offered back to the Cubs upon clearing if he doesn’t win a spot on the roster. It’s a competition that’ll surely force the Athletics into some tough decisions, but that’s common this time of year.

Let’s take a look at the options…

  • Barreto: Brett Lawrie is out of baseball. Sean Nolin hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2015. Kendall Graveman? He’ll spent the 2020 season with the division-rival Mariners after being non-tendered two years ago following Tommy John surgery. Some might question what those names have to do with Barreto, but A’s fans know: he’s the last vestige of the franchise-altering trade that sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto in November 2014. Still not even 24 years old, Barreto ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects in four straight offseasons but has season his prospect/rookie status expire without establishing himself in the big leagues. He curbed some strikeout issues in Triple-A last year and posted a strong .295/.374/.552 slash in Triple-A. Manager Bob Melvin tells MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos that 2020 camp represents Barreto’s “best shot” to date with the organization. “[I]f he has the type of Spring that he has had before, it’s going to be tough not to have him be part of that dynamic, whether it’s a left-right dynamic or an everyday role,” says Melvin. Assistant hitting coach Eric Martins calls the job “absolutely [Mateo’s] to lose.”
  • Mateo: Another high-profile prospect at the time of acquisition (alongside Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian in the trade that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees), Mateo has yet to play in the Majors. He brings elite speed — 80-grade, on some reports — that can’t be matched by the rest of the participants in this competition. Mateo hit .289/.330/.504 in 566 Triple-A plate appearances last year — a slash that incredibly, by measure of wRC+ (96), ranked just below league average in the offensively supercharged Triple-A environment. He’s a shortstop by trade and has also played center field, so he could make the club as a super-utility option even if he doesn’t win the second base job.
  • Kemp: The newest entrant into the Oakland second base derby, Kemp was acquired just last month in a trade that sent minor league infielder Alfonso Rivas to the Cubs. The 28-year-old Kemp has played in 283 games in the big leagues, mostly with the Astros, and put together a .233/.314/.367 slash through 749 plate appearances. His left-handed bat could theoretically pair well with the right-handed bats of Barreto, Kemp or Neuse, although he hasn’t displayed particularly significant platoon splits. He’s a .312/.373/.425 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons and brings some defensive versatility to the mix as well; Kemp has logged 1152 Major League innings in the outfield — including 321 frames in center.
  • Neuse: The fact that Neuse has all three minor league option years remaining will surely work against him, but he’ll have the chance to outplay his out-of-options brethren in Oakland camp. Like everyone else on this list, the 25-year-old Neuse was originally part of another organization; he joined the A’s along with Jesus Luzardo and Blake Treinen in the trade that sent Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to the Nationals. The 2019 season was a big one for Neuse, who ripped through Triple-A pitching with a .317/.389/.550 slash en route to making his Major League debut. He’s still only totaled 61 plate appearances in the bigs, but the former second-round pick will surely add to that total in some capacity in 2020.
  • Machin: The 26-year-old Machin is — pardon the pun — an OBP machine who has walked nearly as often in his minor league career as he’s struck out (215 free passes to 258 punchouts). He’s fresh off a .295/.390/.412 slash between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, and he’s hit at a .313/.345/.437 clip in winter ball this season. Machin has at least 650 plate appearances at all four infield positions but has spent the bulk of his minor league time at second base. His versatility, OBP skills and Rule 5 status could give him an opportunity to break camp as a utility option, and a strong early showing could net him larger looks as the season wears on.

Former Blue Jays and White Sox infielder Ryan Goins stands out as a notable non-roster option who’s in camp, although it’d certainly qualify as an upset if he beat out five 40-man players — including two out-of-options former top prospects who’ve yet to see an extended audition in the big leagues (Barreto, Mateo).

Regardless of the outcome, there’s some potential for a notable 40-man move or two here late in camp. It seems likeliest that the A’s will play things safe and keep both Barreto and Mateo on the roster, but they’ll be two of the more intriguing names to monitor on this year’s list of out-of-options players throughout Spring Training.

MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

By | at

With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

Which team do you expect to win the NL Central?
Reds 38.92% (9,801 votes)
Cardinals 30.54% (7,691 votes)
Cubs 18.24% (4,594 votes)
Brewers 12.29% (3,094 votes)
Total Votes: 25,180

This Date In Transactions History: Odo On The Move

By | at

It has been exactly two years since the Twins bolstered their roster with a trade that continues to benefit their rotation. On Feb. 17, 2018, the Twins acquired right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the Rays for shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios.

Jake Odorizzi | Ben Ludeman-USA TODAY Sports

Odorizzi had two years of control left at the time of the deal and was entering a season in which he’d earn a reasonable $6.3MM via arbitration. The trade brought an end to months of rumors centering on Odorizzi, who garnered interest from a variety of clubs leading up to the Twins’ acquisition. It was already the third trade in Odorizzi’s career, as the 2008 second-round pick of the Brewers previously went from the Brew Crew to the Royals in a 2010 blockbuster and from Kansas City to Tampa Bay in another headline-grabber two years later.

Then entering his age-28 season, Odorizziwas coming off a successful four-year run when he arrived in Minnesota. From his first full season in 2014 through 2017, he registered 120 starts and 668 1/3 innings (30 and 167 per year, respectively) of 3.81 ERA ball. ERA indicators such as FIP (4.23) and xFIP (4.33) weren’t as favorable, but they still painted him as a quality big league starter.

Odorizzi helped his cause by logging 8.31 K/9 against 2.96 BB/9 in his four full years as a Ray, but he generated groundballs at a meager 33.9 percent clip. He still managed to dodge home runs as a member of Tampa Bay, with which he gave them up on just over 11 percent of fly balls. But Odorizzi yielded long balls more than ever in 2017, when he surrendered them a career-worst 15.5 percent of the time. He also posted a relatively bloated walk rate (3.83 per nine, compared to 7.97 K/9) en route to a 4.14 ERA with a far worse 5.43 FIP/5.10 xFIP over 143 1/3 frames.

Although Odorizzi’s last season as a Ray was mediocre, he has rebounded as a Twin. Minnesota’s version has worked to a 3.78 ERA/3.88 FIP across 62 starts and 323 1/3 innings. He still isn’t inducing grounders that often, having done so at a 31.5 percent rate, yet has recorded sub-9 percent HR-to-FB marks in both seasons with the club. Odorizzi was especially effective in 2019, which went down as his first All-Star campaign. He amassed 159 innings of 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP ball to help the Twins rack up 101 wins and take home their first AL Central title since 2010. Along the way, Odorizzi set career highs in K/9 (10.08, against 3.00 BB/9) and swinging-strike percentage (12.7), thanks in part to a noticeable increase in velocity. His fastball sat in the 90-91 mph range in previous years, but the mean jumped to 92.9 last season.

Once his personal-best campaign ended, Odorizzi looked likely to parlay his success with the Twins into a lucrative multiyear deal. Instead, though, he decided to accept the Twins’ $17.8MM qualifying offer, setting him up to stay with the hopeful World Series contenders for at least one more season. The Twins, for their part, are now in line to get three years of an important rotation cog for the affordable sum of $33.6MM (including 2018-19; Odorizzi made $9.5MM last season).

On the other hand, the Rays haven’t made out as well in the trade. Owing in part to its innovative opener strategy, the team has carried on just fine without Odorizzi, having combined for 186 wins since parting with him. The Rays made the playoffs last year and look like strong bets to challenge for the postseason again in 2020. However, it’s highly questionable whether they’ll ever receive any contributions from Palacios.

Twenty-one years old at the time of the trade, Palacios ranked as one of the Twins’ 30 best prospects during his time with the franchise, though he simply hasn’t panned out in the minors with the Rays. Palacios has reached Double-A ball in each of his two seasons with the Tampa Bay organization, but he has combined for a meek .192/.255/.272 line with three homers in 320 plate appearances at that level.

Always willing to experiment, the Rays did dabble in using Palacios as a pitcher in the minors last season, and he did show encouraging velocity during that brief stint on the mound. Still, it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll make it to the majors in any capacity. Meanwhile, the Twins will go forward content with landing one of their most valuable starters for a prospect who hasn’t found his niche to this point.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Camp Battles: Rangers’ First Base Situation

By | at

After a run as a well-regarded prospect, Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman made his major league debut in 2018. Since then, though, few teams have gotten less from the position. Guzman’s defense has drawn praise, but that only goes so far when you struggle to hit at an offensively charged position. He’s coming off a two-year stretch in which he slashed a less-than-stellar .229/.307/.415 with 25 home runs in 723 plate appearances. Guzman accounted for just 0.1 fWAR along the way, and his lack of production even led the Rangers to option him to Triple-A Nashville last season.

In the wake of Guzman’s weak 2019, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Rangers make an improvement at first base in the offseason. Even for modest prices, there were apparent free-agent upgrades available (Eric Thames and Justin Smoak come to mind). The Rangers even considered signing pricey outfielder Nick Castellanos and putting him at first, but he wound up with the Reds.

Having struck out on Castellanos, the Rangers have just about stood pat at first in recent months. Therefore, Guzman’s the front-runner to start again in 2020. He does have an option remaining, however, so the Rangers could send him back to the minors and still retain him if he doesn’t win the job in camp.

Cognizant of the fact that he may be in a make-or-break situation, the 25-year-old Guzman worked hard to better himself during the winter. He sought help from one of the game’s best offensive players in recent memory, former Ranger and current Twin Nelson Cruz, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explained earlier this week.

On the heels of his work with Cruz, both Guzman and the Rangers seem optimistic he’ll finally begin realizing his potential in 2020. If that doesn’t happen, though, there are other in-house first base choices to whom they could turn. Granted, there may not be a clear answer on the roster at all.

The Rangers brought in former Yankees first baseman Greg Bird on a minor league contract Feb. 4. As a prospect and then as a rookie in 2015, when he batted .261/.343/.529 with 11 homers in 178 plate appearances, Bird looked like a possible long-term answer at first for the Yankees. But a series of injuries – including to his foot, shoulder, ankle and knee – helped take a sledgehammer to his Yankees career. Bird missed all of 2016 and was unproductive from 2017-19, appearing in a paltry 10 games in the last of those seasons. The Yankees let the 27-year-old Bird go a few months ago, and he now has to prove himself all over again.

The Rangers also took a low-risk flier on former Red Sox first baseman Sam Travis over the winter. Like Guzman and Bird, Travis was once a quality prospect. Now 26, Travis wasn’t especially impressive at the Triple-A or major league levels from 2017-19. Consequently, the Red Sox – despite needing a first baseman at the time – moved on from Travis a month ago.

If you’re not inspired by Guzman, Bird or Travis, it’s hard to blame you. Problem is that the Rangers aren’t teeming with obvious solutions otherwise. In theory, veteran third baseman Todd Frazier could man the position, but that seems improbable unless the club puts Nick Solak or Danny Santana at the hot corner or does the unlikely and acquires the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado in a blockbuster preseason trade. Should no trade occur, Solak or Santana may see some time at first, but the Rangers might prefer to move the versatile duo around the diamond.

Considering their current options, it looks as if it’ll be another bleak year at first base for the Rangers. The club has made real improvements elsewhere, particularly to its starting staff, but it doesn’t appear that’ll happen at first before the season opens. The spot’s devoid of impact players in free agency, so it would take an unexpected trade in order to find a slam-dunk upgrade now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Ohtani’s 2020 As A Pitcher

By | at

It was revealed earlier this week that the Angels will go without the pitching of two-way star Shohei Ohtani until at least the middle of May. It’s not wholly unsurprising that Ohtani won’t be ready at the start of 2020. After all, he’s on the mend from a rather serious surgical procedure – the dreaded Tommy John – that he underwent in October 2018. Considering his value to the franchise, there’s no need for the Angels to rush Ohtani back if they’re not fully confident in his health.

All that said, it’s disappointing that Ohtani has pitched so few innings since the Angels brought him over from Japan prior to 2018. The latest news is especially damaging when considering that the team hasn’t added a front-line starter since last season, even though expectations were that it would pick up at least one over the winter. The Angels, stuck in a five-year playoff drought, did get Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran, but they’re more back-end innings-eaters than standouts. On the other hand, Ohtani has the ability to produce No. 1- or 2-type numbers for the club this year, but it’s obvious it’ll be over an abbreviated amount of innings.

The lack of frames Ohtani has racked up since he joined the Angels is no doubt a letdown – not that it’s his fault. He came to the majors as one of the most ballyhooed international free agents ever – someone often called the Japanese Babe Ruth – and has not faltered when healthy. Ohtani tossed 51 2/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP ball with 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9 as a major league rookie, averaging just under 97 mph on his fastball along the way. It was a dazzling display overall, and Ohtani truly showed what he’s capable of when he threw seven scoreless, one-hit innings of 12-strikeout ball against the Athletics in his second career start.

Ohtani remained really good through his initial season, though injuries were an issue, thus limiting him to two major league pitching appearances from the start of June through the end of the year. We haven’t been treated to Ohtani the pitcher since Sept. 2, 2018, and we’ll have to wait at least a few more months to get another look at that aspect of his game.

Fortunately for the Angels and baseball in general, Ohtani’s no one-trick pony. He’s also quite an offensive player, having slashed .286/.351/.532 (136 wRC+) with 40 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 792 plate appearances since he emigrated from his homeland.

At the very least, the 25-year-old Ohtani is in line to help the Angels as a designated hitter throughout the entirety of the upcoming campaign. But how much of an impact do you think he’ll make as a hurler when he officially returns from surgery? Vote in the polls below…

(Innings poll link for app users)

How many innings will Ohtani throw?
91-100 26.51% (1,218 votes)
71-90 26.07% (1,198 votes)
More than 100 24.87% (1,143 votes)
51-70 12.75% (586 votes)
50 or fewer 9.79% (450 votes)
Total Votes: 4,595

(ERA poll link for app users)

Predict Ohtani's ERA
3.31-3.50 29.01% (1,070 votes)
3.51-4.00 25.73% (949 votes)
3.00-3.30 25.67% (947 votes)
Below 3.00 9.92% (366 votes)
Above 4.00 9.68% (357 votes)
Total Votes: 3,689

This Date In Transactions History: Cubs Get Yu

By | at

It was on this date two years ago that one of the most expensive signings in Cubs history became official. The club added former Rangers and Dodgers right-hander Yu Darvish on a six-year, $126MM guarantee. The deal gave Darvish the right to opt out after last season, which would’ve meant walking away from $81MM in favor of a free-agency mystery box, but he chose to stay in Chicago, citing a comfort with the city and the organization.

For the Cubs, the Darvish pickup came after they bowed out in the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers in the prior fall. Darvish was an instrumental part of the Dodgers’ victory, as he fired 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in their Game 3 win. The hope for the Cubs was that Darvish would upgrade a rotation that was good, not great, in 2017. As a bonus, they took Darvish away from a rival, with which he was terrific after it acquired him from Texas at that summer’s trade deadline.

Darvish joined the Cubs as a 32-year-old who was eminently successful after coming over from Japan. From 2012-17, a 131-start, 832 1/3-inning run, he posted a 3.42 ERA/3.30 with a jaw-dropping 11.04 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9. There were injuries along the way, though. Darvish underwent Tommy John surgery before the 2016 campaign and missed that entire season. That was sandwiched between two years in which he combined to amass just 244 2/3 frames.

To his credit, Darvish rebounded to throw 186 2/3 effective innings in his season divided between the Rangers and Dodgers. As a result, there was quite a bit of buzz surrounding him as he headed into free agency. MLBTR ranked him as the No. 1 free agent available and predicted a six-year, $160MM payday. But that offseason moved at a more glacial pace than anticipated, and there was less money thrown around than expected. Even Darvish wasn’t immune to it. Several teams (the Rangers, Dodgers, Twins, Brewers and Yankees among them) showed interest in Darvish, but he ultimately chose to go to the Windy City.

Unfortunately for Chicago and Darvish, the first year of their union was an utter letdown. Darvish was on the injured list multiple times – including for triceps and elbow problems – totaled a mere 40 innings and didn’t pitch past May 20. To make matters worse, when Darvish was able to take the mound, he mustered a career-low 4.95 ERA/4.86 FIP with a personal-high 4.73 BB/9. While Darvish did fan a little over 11 hitters per nine, that couldn’t have been much of consolation to the Cubs, who signed him with the belief he’d deliver more than just strikeouts.

On the heels of a rough first season with the Cubs, there probably wasn’t much optimistic with regards to Darvish entering last year. And several weeks through 2019, it looked as if the downward spiral was continuing. Darvish owned a 5.01 ERA as late as July 3, but the light bulb went back on in a big way after that. He finished the season on a rampage from that point, collecting an incredible 124 strikeouts against seven walks in 88 1/3 combined innings in July, August and September. He ended the year with a respectable 3.98 ERA/4.18 FIP with 11.54 K/9 against 2.82 over a healthy amount of starts (31) and innings (178 2/3).

As great as Darvish was in the second half of 2019, his overall performance as a Cub still probably hasn’t been what the team had in mind. Indeed, when assessing president of baseball operations Theo Epstein’s highest-profile signings earlier this week, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes gave the Darvish deal a mediocre ’C’ grade. But if his recent dominance is any indication, the 33-year-old Darvish may be able to help the Cubs rebound from their postseason-less 2019 this year. If he keeps it going (not a sure thing at his age), that grade should go up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This Date In Transactions History: The James Shields Signing

By | at

We’ve reached the five-year anniversary of a free-agent signing whose effects are still being felt today. It was on Feb. 11, 2015, that the Padres signed longtime workhorse James Shields to a four-year, $75MM guarantee. They beat out at least three other teams to sign Shields, a California native whose homecoming didn’t work out as planned for him or the Padres.

The right-handed Shields was one of several household names the Padres acquired that offseason in hopes of snapping what was then an eight-year playoff drought. Along with adding Shields, general manager A.J. Preller nabbed the Upton brothers (Justin and Melvin), two other high-profile hitters in Matt Kemp and Wil Myers and closer Craig Kimbrel. Despite all those moves, though, the Padres didn’t end their playoff skid that year, nor have they made the postseason since. What’s more, only Myers is still a member of the organization, and he’s now the owner of a contract the Padres would love to clear from their books.

Shields, then 33 years old, joined the Padres off stellar runs with the Rays and Royals. The man known as “Big Game James” and “Complete Game James” debuted in 2006 and threw at least 200 innings in each season from 2007-14. He was at his best in the four seasons preceding his deal with the Padres, as he fired a league-leading 932 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA/3.49 FIP ball with 7.95 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent groundball rate.

While Shields remained a fairly effective innings-eater in his first season as a Padre, he didn’t offer the type of front-line production he had in prior years. Shields wound up tossing 202 1/3 frames of 3.91 ERA/4.45 FIP ball, posted 9.61 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, and recorded a 44.9 percent grounder rate in 2015. That went down as his lone full season as a member of the Padres. After Shields got off to an underwhelming start the next year, the Padres traded him and $31MM of the $58MM left on his contract to the White Sox in June 2016. Like the Padres before them, the White Sox were mistakenly under the impression Shields would help them push for a playoff spot. And like the Padres now, they’re still in the midst of a long postseason drought. Meanwhile, Shields hasn’t pitched since 2018 – the last of three rough seasons in Chicago.

While the Shields-Padres union didn’t work out as planned, it’s one that could benefit them for many years. After all, had they not signed Shields, they may not have been able to pull off one of the biggest heists in recent history. The Padres acquired two players – righty Erik Johnson and then-infield prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. – in exchange for Shields. Johnson didn’t amount to anything in a Padres uniform, and he hasn’t pitched professionally since 2018. But the Padres struck gold on Tatis, who was just 17 when they got him and wasn’t regarded as a premium prospect. Tatis eventually soared up prospect rankings, though, and looked like a can’t-miss talent by the time he made his major league debut last season. He delivered in a big way as a 21-year-old, though injuries limited him to 84 games and 372 plate appearances, as he slashed a tremendous .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs, 16 stolen bases and 3.6 fWAR.

It’s safe to say Tatis is now one of the foremost young building blocks in the sport. Had it not been for a free-agent signing that went awry, he might not even be a Padre right now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Red Sox?

By | at

The Mookie Betts trade saga finally reached an end Monday when the Red Sox announced a deal sending him and left-hander David Price to the Dodgers. Both players were instrumental in helping the Red Sox to their most recent World Series title in 2018, and Betts is on a short list of the game’s greatest players. But the Red Sox nonetheless moved on from the two, saving $75MM in the trade ($48MM on Price, $27MM on Betts) and getting back a trio of promising young players in outfielder Alex Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong.

Needless to say, Boston’s hope is that Verdugo, Downs and Wong will emerge as long-term core pieces. In the here and now, though, only Verdugo figures to play a significant role. The 23-year-old had a solid rookie season in 2019 before injuries cut him down. Even if Verdugo stays healthy in 2020, he’s not going to make Red Sox fans forget about Betts. That’s not a knock on Verdugo – who has shown that he’s a quality major leaguer – but a compliment to Betts, a legitimate superstar.

Betts was among the driving forces for a position player group that finished fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in fWAR last year. To be sure, Betts didn’t do it all himself. There’s still incredible talent on hand in shortstop Xander Bogaerts, third baseman Rafael Devers and designated hitter J.D. Martinez. They should continue to make Boston’s offense a bear for enemy pitchers to deal with, while Verdugo, fellow outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. (if he’s not dealt), and catcher Christian Vazquez look like fine complementary pieces. That said, there’s no doubt Boston’s offense would have looked better had Betts remained a part of it.

Just as the Red Sox’s position player group took at least a short-term hit in this trade, so did its rotation. Price may not have been the all-world ace the Red Sox expected when they signed him to a then-record $217MM contract entering 2016, but he’s still an above-average starter. While injuries held Price to 107 1/3 innings last season, he did log a useful 4.28 ERA/3.62 FIP with 10.73 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9. Price was undoubtedly a top three starter on a team whose rotation didn’t get much from anyone else but Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale a season ago.

Rodriguez and Sale are still on the roster, but there aren’t any sure things backing them up in Boston’s staff. Nathan Eovaldi will try to rebound from a horrid season, and the team brought in the relatively inexpensive Martin Perez (a back-end starter) in free agency. It’s up in the air who will occupy the fifth spot in the Red Sox’s rotation behind that quartet. As for the club’s bullpen, which endured its share of scrutiny last year, there haven’t been any especially notable additions this winter.

The 2019 campaign didn’t go as planned for the Red Sox, who entered with title aspirations but ended up winning a disappointing 84 games. They’ve since let go of their manager, Alex Cora, as a result of a sign-stealing scandal, and now the face of their franchise and one of their most reliable starters are also gone. Cora hasn’t been replaced yet, but his successor will be stepping into a drastically different situation than the one he oversaw. The Betts- and Price-less Red Sox are still a talented team, though, and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Monday that it’s still “realistic” to believe they’ll compete in 2020. Considering how their roster looks now, do you agree?

(Poll link for app users)

How many Red Sox wins do you expect?
80-84 40.45% (6,252 votes)
85-89 34.60% (5,348 votes)
Fewer than 80 12.87% (1,990 votes)
90-94 10.33% (1,597 votes)
95 or more 1.75% (271 votes)
Total Votes: 15,458
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top