MLBTR Originals

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: AL West

By Jeff Todd | September 12, 2019 at 9:23am CDT

It has only been a little over five weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, AL East, and NL East. Now we’ll head out west, starting with the American League …

Astros

The runaway division leaders were already setting up for the postseason at this summer’s trade deadline. As has now become customary, GM Jeff Luhnow pulled a rabbit out of his hat. He came through this year with the summer’s biggest blockbuster.

The Astros’ acquisition of veteran righty Zack Greinke seemingly came out of nowhere, breaking at the last possible moment. But how does it look at this early stage? The 35-year-old Greinke hasn’t been quite as good as he had been in Arizona, but he’s certainly getting the job done as hoped. Through seven starts, he carries a 3.32 ERA. On the prospect side, we haven’t learned much that we didn’t know already. Corbin Martin is still early in his Tommy John recovery, while J.B. Bukauskas only made two starts after the swap. Seth Beer did struggle upon moving to the Snakes’ Double-A affiliate, slashing .205/.297/.318 in 101 plate appearances, though that only puts a bit of a damper on a promising overall campaign. Infielder Josh Rojas, the least-hyped player involved, went on an unreal tear at Triple-A to earn a call-up. He’s holding his own (.250/.337/.382) through 86 MLB plate appearances.

That one will take longer to assess, particularly with regard to what was lost for the Houston org. That’s also true of the team’s other big deal, though in that case the initial results have been a dud for all involved. The Astros were clearly positioned to utilize outfielder Derek Fisher as a trade asset with little need for him, so turned him into a buy-low opportunity on Aaron Sanchez, who came over with reliever Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays. Fisher has not been hitting in Toronto, but the ’Stros have also not gotten anything close to what they might’ve hoped from their side of this bargain. Sanchez tantalized with a gem of an outing but couldn’t sustain it and ended up requiring shoulder surgery (the full details of which remain unclear). Biagini has not thrived after making changes to his repertoire, having now allowed a dozen earned runs and six long balls with a miserable 9:7 K/BB ratio over 13 2/3 innings.

The other MLB piece added has worked out quite nicely. The Astros brought back veteran backstop Martin Maldonado for another run. Acquired for his defense, he has also provided a whopping .246/.319/.585 hitting output over 72 plate appearances. It has been quite the opposite experience for the Cubs, who added utilityman Tony Kemp in the deal. Kemp has just nine base knocks (two for extras) in his 64 trips to the plate with Chicago.

Houston’s other deals were of the roster-clearing variety. The club sent out backstop Max Stassi to make way for Maldonado. Stassi has managed just three hits in 49 trips to the plate with the Angels; it’s still anyone’s guess whether the Astros have anything in the very young outfielders (Rainier Rivas and Raider Uceta) acquired in the deal. Neither do the ’Stros miss Tyler White, who struggled with the Dodgers before getting hurt after being sent there following a DFA. The young reliever added in that deal, Andre Scrubb, continued to show much the same results as before the swap. He ended his season with 64 2/3 Double-A innings of 2.78 ERA pitching with 10.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.

Athletics

To the surprise of nobody, the A’s went for arms over the summer. While the club was rightly pleased with its overall position-player mix, there was an obvious dearth of talent in the staff — the rotation, in particular.

First came Homer Bailey, who held particular appeal since he’d cost only the league-minimum salary. (The Dodgers owe the rest of the tab on Bailey’s extension.) The 33-year-old has eaten innings as advertised, with a 4.98 ERA and 50:11 K/BB ratio over 56 frames. Oakland can’t really have hoped for much more. Infielder Kevin Merrell had been struggling when he was sent to K.C. in the deal and continued to do so after, slashing just .235/.278/.313 in 176 Double-A plate appearances.

The A’s have had much better results from the other starter they picked up, Tanner Roark, who was added in exchange for outfield prospect Jameson Hannah. While his peripherals look much like those of Bailey, Roark has held opposing teams to 3.40 earned runs per nine in his 42 1/3 frames over seven starts. Hannah — like Merrell, one of the team’s loftier recent draft choices — trended down after changing uniforms. He slashed just .224/.325/.299 in 78 trips to the plate at the High-A level.

Oakland swung one other deal with the Royals, giving up prospects Ismael Aquino and Dairon Blanco in exchange for southpaw Jake Diekman. The veteran reliever hasn’t generated the hoped-for results, compiling just 11 strikeouts while issuing nine walks over 14 1/3 innings. Blanco has scuffled mightily since the deal, while Aquino remains a total wild card.

You might’ve liked to see a bit more talent come in to the Oakland org, which surely could have stood to add more and/or better pitching pieces. But it’s hard to fault a somewhat conservative course when only a Wild Card was realistically in play.

Rangers

It remains to be seen whether the Texas organization will regret the decision not to move Mike Minor and/or Lance Lynn. Both still look like very nice values now and in the near future. For a team with hopes of a reasonably competitive reset, it was understandable that they held onto these free-agent hits. An offseason deal could yet also be considered. But it’ll be tempting to Monday-morning QB the decision if one or both falter.

The Rangers still look to have added some nice pieces in the deadline moves they did make. Veteran reliever Chris Martin brought back southpaw Kolby Allard, while high-powered but command-challenged reliever Peter Fairbanks netted utilityman Nick Solak. It was easy to part with an older bullpen piece, though Fairbanks has shown well and could still make the club pay. Still, it’s hard not to like what the Rangers have seen from their two new pieces. The 22-year-old Allard may not have an exceptional ceiling, but he has managed to carry a 3.78 ERA through six MLB starts. And Solak has a ridiculous .347/.460/.556 slash through his first 87 trips to the dish at the game’s highest level.

We’ll have to wait to see whether the team gets anything out of veteran reliever Nate Jones (if it exercises an option over him), but taking on his salary via trade allowed the Rangers to add a major international target. That deal did cost two rookie ball pitchers. Joseph Jarneski struggled quite a bit after the swap; while Ray Castro put up solid numbers, he’s already 22 years of age and is still pitching in the Dominican Summer League. The Texas organization has also received 10 1/3 solid innings from righty Ian Gibaut, who was added for a song and could be a part of the bullpen mix in 2020.

Angels

[ENTRY BLANK]

Just kidding. But … yeah, not much action for the Halos, was there? The aforementioned Stassi was added on the heels of even smaller acquisitions of along with Josh Thole (link) and Adam McCreery (link). These moves haven’t really cost much and helped the club make it through the season, but that’s about it.

To be fair, the Angels did not have a ton of obvious trade pieces to work with. Kole Calhoun would’ve held appeal, and perhaps in retrospect should have been dealt, but it’s not clear he’d have brought back enough of a return to justify sacrificing what was then an outside chance at a Wild Card run.

Mariners

There’s always some action when GM Jerry Dipoto is involved. But there could have been more. Dee Gordon was and is a candidate to be moved, as the M’s have no qualms about eating salary when necessary. Mitch Haniger might have been an interesting candidate for a big swap but for an injury. Domingo Santana was also not a factor for similar reasons.

The club did end up making several moves that brought in a volume of prospects. Cashing in veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion in June netted pitching prospect Juan Then, who got his start in the Seattle system. The 19-year-old worked to a 2.98 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 48 1/3 total minor-league frames after the swap, topping out at the Class A level.

In a pair of deals, the Mariners sent relievers Hunter Strickland (link) and Roenis Elias (link) to the Nationals for a series of prospects. Elvis Alvarado had been walking more than a batter per inning before the move but recorded a 13:3 K/BB ratio in a dozen rookie frames thereafter. And Taylor Guilbeau showed enough to get a late call-up. He owns a 4.50 ERA in eight innings over 11 appearances. More importantly, he’s showing well against left-handed hitters … though righties have had no trouble. The third hurler added from the D.C. organization is Aaron Fletcher, a recent 14th-round pick who could soon be on the MLB relief radar. He ran up the Nats ladder with good numbers and ended the season with a 13-inning Double-A run with the Seattle organization, over which he compiled a 3.46 ERA with a 15:3 K/BB ratio.

After a long time trying, the Mariners also found a home for veteran righty Mike Leake, whose no-trade rights complicated matters. Seattle was only able to offload $6MM of salary while picking up infielder Jose Caballero. The M’s gave him a look at the High-A level, where he slashed just .256/.339/.333 over 109 plate appearances. The only other Seattle swap was a minor one. Shipping Kris Negron to the Dodgers netted a younger utilityman in Daniel Castro. He continued to struggle at the plate at Triple-A after the deal.

The Least Valuable Sluggers Of 2019

By Connor Byrne | September 11, 2019 at 8:02pm CDT

With a couple weeks left in the regular season, 108 players have already hit at least 20 home runs, and several more figure to join the group before the year’s out. We all know it’s a homer-happy game these days, but even if you’re capable of launching the ball over the fence on a consistent basis, that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a valuable player. Seventeen of the sport’s 20-HR hitters have posted 1.0 fWAR or worse so far this year, setting them up to end the season as below-average players by that metric. Say what you will about fWAR, but it’s generally able to pinpoint who is and isn’t particularly useful to his team’s cause. With that said, let’s take a look at this year’s least valuable sluggers as the campaign nears its end…

Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins (HRs: 28; fWAR: 1.0)

While Rosario has seldom been a big on-base threat since his career started in 2015, this year’s .299 OBP is the second-worst mark of his career and has helped tamp down his value. Despite a .276 average and a .491 slugging percentage, Rosario has managed a so-so 101 wRC+ to this point. Thanks to that and below-average defense (minus-4 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR), Rosario’s smack dab between average and replacement level this season.

Jay Bruce, OF, Phillies (HRs: 25; fWAR: 1.0)

In fairness to Bruce, injuries have limited him to just 314 plate appearance this year, making his home run amount all the more impressive. Still, between Seattle and Philly, Bruce has put up another unspectacular season in a growing line of them. He’s a .227/.274/.543 hitter with a 106 wRC+, though the long-panned outfielder has accounted for 2 DRS and a 0.8 UZR in the corners.

Yasiel Puig, OF, Indians (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.8)

The 28-year-old Puig has stumbled through one of the worst seasons of his career, which obviously isn’t what he had in mind for a platform campaign. The pending free agent and longtime Dodger has slashed a middling .255/.315/.455 over 555 trips to the plate between the Reds and Indians. Puig’s still a good outfielder (4 DRS, 0.4 UZR), but above-average offense has been his calling card for most of his time in the bigs. His decline in output at the plate this season has likely cost him a solid amount of money.

Franmil Reyes, OF, Indians (HRs: 34; fWAR: 0.8)

The 24-year-old Reyes joined the Indians last month in the same trade as Puig, but the results haven’t been stellar in either case. Although Reyes has a shot at 40 homers, his .250/.313/.516 line (109 wRC+) isn’t great, especially for a DH. Reyes still has another two years left before he hits arbitration, though, so it’s doubtful the Indians will grow tired of him in the immediate future.

Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.8)

Jimenez hasn’t made the type of star-caliber impact the White Sox may have wanted immediately from the hyped 22-year-old, but most players his age are still in the minors. A league-average batting line (101 wRC+; .249/.297/.473 in 437 PA) with 25 dingers isn’t anything to scoff at for a rookie. But it’s up in the air whether Jimenez will evolve into a viable outfielder. He has accounted for minus-11 DRS with a minus-4.6 UZR thus far.

Ryan McMahon, INF, Rockies (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.7)

As with Jimenez, the fact that McMahon’s not off to a dazzling start doesn’t mean he won’t morph into an indispensable long-term piece for Colorado. The 24-year-old McMahon has fared respectably at three positions, mostly second base, while slashing .258/.338/.455 (91 wRC+) in his first full season in the league.

Renato Nunez, DH/1B, Orioles (HRs: 29; fWAR: 0.7)

Let’s say this for Nunez: He’s much more successful than the vast majority of waiver pickups. Nunez has at least turned into a passable hitter since the Orioles claimed him off the scrapheap from the Rangers in May 2018. However, for a DH, more is needed than the .251/.314/.471 showing (102 wRC+) that Nunez has given the rebuilding Orioles in 547 plate appearances this season. The O’s are in the process of trying to find long-term building blocks, and the 25-year-old Nunez hasn’t really established himself as one yet, homers aside.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.5)

Hernandez’s aggregate production has been far from excellent this season, but the 26-year-old has trended upward since a horrid stretch from April through June. Overall, Hernandez – who’s trying to prove to the Blue Jays he’s a long-term cog – has batted .215/.292/.436 with an 89 wRC+ and subpar defense (minus-5 DRS, minus-3.5 UZR). Offensively, if the powerful Hernandez is ever going to be a significant asset, he’ll have to slash his strikeouts. He has fanned in 33-plus percent of PA this season, continuing a K-happy career that began in 2016.

C.J. Cron, 1B, Twins (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.4)

The Rays non-tendered Cron last offseason after a 30-homer campaign, and early this year, he looked like one of the best buy-low pickups of the winter. Cron stormed out of the gates after joining the Twins for $4.8MM, but he has slowed down considerably since then. Cron has only batted .254/.315/.478 (104 wRC+) in 470 PA, which could again make him a non-tender candidate during the upcoming winter as he gears up for his final trip through arbitration.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays (HRs: 25; fWAR: 0.3)

The five-year, $52MM extension the Blue Jays handed Grichuk before the season isn’t looking like a particularly shrewd investment at the moment. Never known for getting on base, the .281 OBP the 25-year-old has put up thus far is the lowest he has ever recorded over a full season. In all, Grichuk’s just a .230/.281/.437 hitter, giving him a woeful 85 wRC+. It hasn’t been a case of bad luck, according to Statcast, which credits Grichuk with a .296 expected weighted on-base average that falls shy of his real wOBA (.305).

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.3)

With three Jays on this list, maybe it’s no surprise the rebuilding club’s among the majors’ worst teams. Unlike Grichuk, though, Smoak is something of a Statcast darling. The soon-to-be free agent’s .212/.349/.406 line and 104 wRC+ through 464 PA aren’t anything special for a first baseman, but his .372 xwOBA (compared to a .332 wOBA) is one of the highest in the sport.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.2)

The Padres’ decision to hand Hosmer an eight-year, $144MM guarantee before the 2018 season continues to look rather questionable. The former Royal logged weak production a year ago, and though Hosmer has improved this season, the results aren’t nearly good enough for the money he’s making or the offense-driven position he plays. The grounder-hitting Hosmer’s .280/.327/.443 line in 603 PA has amounted to a 95 wRC+. He has given the Padres 0.0 fWAR over 1,280 PA since signing his franchise-record contract.

Domingo Santana, OF, Mariners (HRs: 21; fWAR: 0.2)

Santana’s offensive output has tanked in the second half, though ongoing elbow problems have surely contributed to his late-season decline. The Mariners will hope Santana will look more like the player who registered a 127 wRC+ in the first half of 2019, not the one who has limped to a dismal 36 wRC+ since, when next season rolls around. Regardless, Santana’s defense may continue to be a major concern. With minus-15 DRS and a minus-16.0 UZR, he has been one of the worst outfielders in the game this year.

Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers (HRs: 24; fWAR: 0.1)

Although this is the third season with at least 20 homers for the 25-year-old Odor, the Rangers are understandably growing frustrated with his inconsistency. Odor has alternated between valuable and valueless since he came on the scene in 2014. Unfortunately for Texas, Odor has been closer to the latter this season. He has gone down on strikes a personal-worst 30.4 percent of the time en route to an ugly line of .203/.283/.421 (73 wRC+) in 517 trips to the plate.

Matt Adams, 1B, Nationals (HRs: 20; fWAR: 0.0)

The 31-year-old Adams has only managed a .226/.277/.476 line with a wRC+ of 86, thanks in part to a career-high strikeout percentage (34.3). The lefty-hitting Adams has continued to struggle against same-handed pitchers in the process, making it look all the more likely the Nationals will buy him out for $1MM in lieu of exercising a $4MM option after the season.

Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, Angels (HRs: 22; fWAR: minus-0.1)

Pujols hit the 655th homer of his career Monday, leaving him just five shy of tying the legendary Willie Mays for fifth on the all-time list. Needless to say, the 39-year-old Pujols is one of the greatest players who has ever lived. That said, his years-long decline has continued in 2019 – the eighth season of a 10-year, $240MM contract that hasn’t gone to the Angels’ liking. Pujols, with his .251/.311/.448 line and inability to contribute as a defender or base runner, is on track for a second straight season of below-replacement-level production.

Khris Davis, DH, Athletics (HRs: 20; fWAR: minus-1.1)

This has been a disastrous season for the man known as Khrush, whom the low-budget Athletics awarded a two-year, $33.5MM extension before the campaign. Davis was coming off his third straight season of 40-plus home runs (and fourth consecutive campaign with a .247 average) at that point. But injuries have helped limit Davis to a horrid .220/.287/.383 line with a 78 wRC+ through 474 PA in 2019. That’s obviously not going to cut it for someone whose bat determines whether he’s valuable.

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL East

By Jeff Todd | September 11, 2019 at 1:33pm CDT

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, and AL East; now we’ll go to the National League East …

Braves

There was an argument for the Braves to consider rotation and even outfield improvements at the trade deadline, but the club ultimately focused on the bullpen after the mid-June signing of Dallas Keuchel. Otherwise, the club swung just one other deal, a minor swap of cash for catching depth in the form of John Ryan Murphy.

So, what about those relievers? The club picked up Chris Martin (link), Shane Greene (link), and Mark Melancon (link). That seemed like a sturdy trio, but each got off to an exceptionally rocky start. Thankfully, things have stabilized. Martin sports a 15:1 K/BB rate in Atlanta; Melancon sits at 20:2 and hasn’t yet blown a save in nine chances (though it may not seem that way). Greene gave up a pair of runs in his last outing, but that broke a 13-appearance scoreless streak.

On the other side of the coin, the price paid never figured to hurt the Braves too badly, as they largely parted with upper-level pieces that were stacked behind other prospects. If there’s one that could hurt, it may be Joey Wentz, who posted a 37:4 K/BB ratio while allowing just six earned runs in 25 2/3 innings with the Tigers’ Double-A affiliate after coming over in the Greene trade. Utilityman Travis Demeritte, who went with him, has struggled in brief MLB action. The Martin swap cost another young left, Kolby Allard, who has put a shine on a solid overall campaign by running a 3.78 ERA over six big league starts. He’s succeeding largely by limiting the long ball, which may not be fully sustainable, but his stuff has trended up noticeably since his brief debut last year with Atlanta. Tristan Beck, the key piece in the Melancon swap, has generated good results at the High-A level since the deal.

So, what about the possible needs in other areas? The starting staff has continued to be an internal operation (including Keuchel). While it’s not exactly an ace-laden outfit, the Braves do have plenty of depth and will likely plan to stack pitching in the postseason rather than hoping for lengthy starts. Position-player depth has been an issue, but the club has managed to find solutions by being one of the most aggressive accumulators of players in September. Minor-league signings and claims brought the team Adeiny Hechavarria, Billy Hamilton, and Francisco Cervelli. While it’s certainly arguable the Braves could or should have made at least one more significant addition, the overall approach of supplementing the existing roster has certainly not prevented the team from performing at an impressive level of late.

Nationals

The D.C. organization pursued something like a Braves-lite strategy, landing its own trio of relief arms but doing so at another tier lower than did the division leaders. Southpaw Roenis Elias (link) and righties Daniel Hudson (link) and Hunter Strickland (link) all arrived on deadline day to buttress a bullpen that has been a source of turnover and turmoil all season long.

Elias was arguably the biggest piece of the three, but has contributed the least due to injury. It’s an unlucky break, though the Nats still can salvage value from the deal by tendering him a contract for the next two seasons to come. The two right-handers have become important pieces in the late-inning mix of the rightly maligned Washington relief corps. Hudson owns a 2.40 ERA in 15 frames, with 9.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9; Strickland is sitting at a 4.40 ERA over 14 1/3 innings, with 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. They’ve each allowed three home runs.

Securing the services of Elias meant sending Elvis Alvarado and Taylor Guilbeau to Seattle. The control problems of the former disappeared in a dozen-inning rookie ball stint after the trade, so perhaps the Seattle staff helped him figure something out. Gilbeau, 26, has earned his first time in the majors. In eight innings, the southpaw has been tough on lefties (.176/.263/.294) while being knocked around a bit by righties (.267/.353/.467). Another young lefty went to Seattle in the Strickland deal. Aaron Fletcher has thrown 13 innings of 3.46 ERA ball with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 13 Double-A innings. Adding Hudson cost 23-year-old Kyle Johnston, whose solid High-A numbers have tanked since the swap. He carries a brutal 13:20 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings with the new organization.

Add it all up, and the Nats can’t be terribly displeased … but also haven’t been overwhelmingly boosted by their mid-season additions. Indications are that the club was working under tight payroll constraints this summer, so that’s to be expected. Fortunately, infielder Asdrubal Cabrera came cheap. He has been aflame since being signed as a September free agent. The club is still in very good position for the Wild Card, but has to wonder how far it will be able to advance with such an unreliable relief unit.

Phillies

After adding Jay Bruce earlier in the summer, the Phillies probably wanted to improve their pitching. But they didn’t end up matching their rivals in that regard — not even close, in fact.

Outfielder Corey Dickerson was the team’s biggest addition in the run-up to the deadline, in fact. The primary cost was his remaining salary, with the club also agreeing to send the cross-state Pirates some international bonus capacity and a PTBNL. Dickerson may not even have been added had it not been for Bruce’s health issues. It has turned out to be wise move, as Dickerson carries a .300/.313/.592 batting line through 134 plate appearances.

Taking on money was also a driver in the Jason Vargas deal. The veteran southpaw has taken the ball eight times for the Phillies, managing a 5.01 ERA over 41 1/3 innings with a 1.63 K/BB ratio. That’s a downgrade from the results he posted with the Mets before the trade — 4.01 ERA with 2.08 K/BB ratio — though he’s much the same pitcher by most measures.

Those moves have certainly helped the Phils hang in the Wild Card race, though the club could obviously have stood to make greater improvements. Minor deals for Mike Morin, Jose Pirela, and Dan Straily haven’t delivered a ton of benefit. Morin has seen 21 innings of action but owns a 5.14 ERA. Pirela has seen limited action in the majors, while Straily hasn’t been asked onto the 40-man roster.

Much like their competitors in the division, the Phils have made several additions by signing released players or placing post-deadline claims. Those methods have brought in Drew Smyly, Blake Parker, Nick Vincent, Logan Morrison, and Jared Hughes to help keep things afloat. While more significant reinforcements surely would’ve been preferred, the organization just wasn’t willing to pay what it would have cost.

Mets

The most surprising deadline approach came from New York, with the Mets deciding to chase dwindling postseason aspirations. While the organization was rewarded with an inspired run of play, it still seems likely the club will fall short of its goal.

It seemed as the deadline drew nigh that the Mets would function as sellers. Zack Wheeler was an obvious trade piece, with a variety of other veterans also possibilities to move. Instead, the club pursued a stunning swap for local product Marcus Stroman while sending Vargas to the Phils to help offset the cash.

Parting with Vargas hasn’t hurt, though it was curious to see him go to a division rival. Trouble is, Stroman hasn’t been any better. He’s carrying a 5.05 ERA in 35 2/3 frames. While he’s surely a better bet going forward than the aging lefty, Stroman will need to rein in the number of balls leaving the yard (1.8 per nine since the deal). Adding Stroman meant that the Mets ponied up another chunk of young talent from a farm that had already parted with key pieces. Most analysts felt the cost — Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson — was rather reasonable, though both hurlers have trended up since joining their new organization.

The real head-scratcher in all of this was that the Mets stopped with only the addition of Stroman. He was and is a piece with 2020 value as well, of course, but the club left its bullpen entirely unimproved. The club did go on to add Brad Brach as well as second bagger Joe Panik when they came available in September. Brodie Van Wagenen’s first trade deadline will be an interesting one to revisit down the line.

Marlins

It was a low-key fascinating trade period for the Fish. Not because they made sell-side moves — that was obvious — but because they ended up shipping out young talent.

It all got started innocently enough, as rental reliever Sergio Romo was sent to the Twins in a deal that netted first baseman Lewin Diaz. The youngster’s batting average and OBP dove with his new club, but he is still showing good power at Double-A. Unfortunately, the deal also cost the Fish 22-year-old righty Chris Vallimont. He had put up solid numbers all season long and finished with a bang, posting a 28:4 K/BB ratio and 3.63 ERA over 22 1/3 High-A innings.

It might have been supposed that the Marlins would try to spin off a few other veterans, with Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson among the short-term players that could hypothetically have been moved. Instead, the Miami club turned to cashing in controllable MLB pitching for buy-low position-player prospects.

First came an intriguing intra-state deal. The Marlins parted with righties Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards in order to pick up young outfielder Jesus Sanchez and reliever Ryne Stanek. With Anderson dominating and Richards performing quite well, there could be some second-guessing here. Then again, Sanchez is a well-regarded young player. He slashed .246/.338/.446 in 78 plate appearances at Triple-A after the swap. That’s hardly a big showing in this year’s hot offensive environment, but it was an improvement over his work in the Rays organization and he’s still just 21 years of age.

At least as surprising was the deal that saw rookie righty Zac Gallen head to the D-Backs in exchange for Jazz Chisholm. Entering the season, this swap would’ve seemed ridiculous. But the two players involved headed in quite different directions. By the time the deal was struck, the former was in the midst of a breakout season, with the age and cheap control needed to serve as a part of a new core. But the Marlins elected to cash in his breakout to take a shot at the long-lauded Chisholm, who had shown big strikeout numbers at Double-A (33.8%). Gallen has continued to excel in Arizona, raising the stakes for Chisholm. But the 21-year-old shortstop did trend up after the move, paring back the Ks and slashing .284/.383/.494 (156 wRC+) in 94 plate appearances with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate.

It’s impossible to say how this slate of transactions will look in the long run, but it’ll be fun to track these intriguing deals from the rebuilding Marlins.

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: AL East

By Jeff Todd | September 11, 2019 at 7:45am CDT

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central and NL Central; now we’ll go to the American League East …

Yankees

The Yankees did their shopping ahead of time, as it turned out. They first picked up Cameron Maybin (link) and Kendrys Morales (link) early in the season. Maybin’s stunning productivity has obviously been a boon for the Yanks, who’ve weathered countless injuries with a slew of surprise performances.

Over the summer, the New York club ultimately replaced Morales with Edwin Encarnacion in a mid-June swap and went on to pick up pinch runner extraordinaire Terrance Gore in a minor move. The Encarnacion deal gave the Yankees another fearsome slugger on a roster chock full of them. He has missed some time and hasn’t been at his absolute best, but still carries a strong .246/.320/.514 slash in 194 plate appearances with the club. Young pitching prospect Juan Then has had a nice showing since moving to the Seattle organization in the EE deal, reaching the Class A level and throwing a combined 48 1/3 innings of 2.98 ERA ball with 48 strikeouts and 13 walks.

That all seemed to be prelude to a bigger deadline strike. Surely, the thinking went, the Yanks would be ready to do whatever it’d take to fully load their roster in an attempt to win the World Series for the first time since 2009. Pitching, particularly of the starting variety, was obviously in need. As it turned out, the Yankees held pat on deadline day. While they nearly landed a big relief arm in Ken Giles, they ultimately decided to roll the dice on internal options.

So, are there any regrets? The Yanks are cruising in the division, so in that sense it’s hard to argue with the way the line was drawn. But the club doesn’t feature an imposing postseason rotation. It may be supposed that the team will try to make up for the lack of high-end starters with a fearsome relief mix, but that’s still somewhat dependent upon the recovery of injured hurlers Luis Severino and Dellin Betances. The uncertainties were well-known in the run-up to the trade deadline, so the Yankees are sleeping in the bed they made. There’s immense talent on the roster, but it’ll be interesting to see if the quiet deadline ultimately haunts the club.

Rays

There weren’t any headline-making moves, but that doesn’t mean the Rays weren’t busy at the deadline. The organization’s mid-season acquisitions didn’t jump-start a run at the Yanks, but have subtly altered their array of talent and helped the club stay out in front of the AL Wild Card race.

Parting with Nick Solak helped clear the deck on the position-player side while bringing in interesting righty Peter Fairbanks. Both have turned in impressive initial showings at the MLB level — 78 plate appearances of .949 OPS hitting and 5 1/3 innings of pitching with just one earned run — and could play significant roles on their respective new clubs in 2020.

The Rays then sent out Hunter Wood and Christian Arroyo for faraway outfielder Ruben Cardenas and $250K of international signing capacity. This seemed primarily to be a roster-clearing move, but it cost the team a cost-efficient reliever who has turned in solid results on both sides of the swap. That’s also what happened with lefty Adam Kolarek, who has made 17 scoreless appearances since being traded to the Dodgers. Outfielder Niko Hulsizer, acquired in return, remains a long-term project. In another roster-management deal, outfielder Joe McCarthy went to the Giants for youthful pitching prospect Jacob Lopez. The former has struggled at Triple-A; the latter has been successful in limited action both before and after the deal, but hasn’t yet moved past the low-A level.

Having parted with Solak and Arroyo, the Rays turned around and added a veteran in the same essential utility mold. Eric Sogard has hit well since coming down to Florida, turning in a .284/.348/.431 slash in 112 plate appearances. Indeed, he’s out-slashing fellow acquisition Jesus Aguilar, who’s hitting competently but hasn’t returned to his slugging ways since coming from the Brewers. That deal, too, saw a big-league-capable hurler leave the Tampa Bay org, though Jake Faria hasn’t yet distinguished himself in Milwaukee.

That was all prelude to the team’s biggest swap. Solid reliever/opener Ryne Stanek was packaged with quality outfield prospect Jesus Sanchez in exchange for righties Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards. The long-term key to this deal is Sanchez, who hasn’t yet turned on the jets but is seen by some as a future regular. Despite his relatively high-profile role in Tampa Bay, nobody has missed Stanek, who has struggled since moving south. Any thought of what has departed has been overwhelmed by what the Rays have gotten back. Richards has been excellent in a Raysian swingman sort of role, throwing 19 1/3 innings of 2.33 ERA ball. And Anderson? He has quietly racked up two strikeouts for every one of his 15 innings pitched with nary a free pass. Anderson is already 29 years of age, but his remaining control rights — he won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2022 — look to be quite valuable.

Red Sox

Not unlike their bitter New England rivals, the Red Sox acted early and then went quiet. But the situations weren’t the same: there was greater need in Boston, but also less cause to press the issue given the team’s perilous place in the standings.

It had been hoped that acquiring veteran Andrew Cashner would represent a low-cost means of shoring up a leaky Red Sox pitching staff. He was intended to start, with Nathan Eovaldi heading to the bullpen. As it turns out, both have pitched poorly while spending time in both starting and relief roles.

There’s no question that adding to the bullpen would’ve boosted the chances for the Red Sox. It’s tempting to believe that a bold strike might even have jolted a turnaround. But the Boston organization had largely played its cards in the offseason. Ultimately, a roster weary from the prior season’s World Series run just wasn’t up to the task. It’d be hard to say a different deadline approach would likely have changed the outcome.

Blue Jays

It was always clear how this deadline would go for the Blue Jays, who’ve almost fully turned over their roster over the past few years and are now looking to build around premium young talent. It remains a bit surprising that the club couldn’t find a home for Justin Smoak and Freddy Galvis — the latter ultimately departed via waiver claim — but the Jays did swing several sell-side deals.

First came the surprising Marcus Stroman swap. It was all but inevitable he’d be moved, but the destination came as a surprise. Some observers were underwhelmed by the return, but the Toronto organization seemed excited to add pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson. So far, so good. Kay turned in seven quality outings at Triple-A and recently made his MLB debut, with eight strikeouts against three walks and two earned runs on the board over 5 2/3 solid frames. And the 18-year-old Woods Richardson has thrived after receiving a promotion to the High-A level, compiling 28 1/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball with 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.

The Jays also dealt away another once-featured hurler in Aaron Sanchez. He went with fellow righty Joe Biagini to the Astros in exchange for outfielder Derek Fisher. This has the feeling of a trade that could be a complete non-factor in the long run … or one that could turn out to be quite significant in retrospect. Sanchez showed a brief spark but is now down for the year with a shoulder injury, while Biagini has struggled badly. Fisher will get a longer look, but the former first-rounder has struggled to a .167/.277/.403 slash to this point in his Blue Jays tenure.

Two more relievers went out the door as well. David Phelps has been a big contributor for the Cubs since he was dealt. But the deal brought the Jays back a potentially useful piece in righty Tom Hatch. He finished off his season with a strong 35 1/3 inning run at Toronto’s Double-A affiliate, over which he pitched to a 2.80 ERA with an exceptional 34:2 K/BB ratio. Finally, there was the swap that sent veteran reliever Daniel Hudson to the Nationals. Unlike the other deals, this was a classic rental scenario. It’s anyone’s guess what the team will get out of 23-year-old Kyle Johnston, the hurler added in return. He took a sharp turn for the worse upon arriving in his new org, allowing 22 earned runs with a terrible 13:20 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings of action, but will have a chance to go back to the drawing board in the upcoming offseason.

Orioles

It turned out to be quite the quiet deadline for the Orioles. On deadline day itself, the club simply shipped Dan Straily to the Phillies in a minor move. Before that came only the aforementioned Cashner deal, which brought in a pair of 17-year-old Venezuelans. Elio Prado and Noelberth Romero. Those recent signees continued to play in the Dominican Summer League after the trade; whether they’ll ultimately deliver value to the Baltimore organization won’t be known for quite some time.

So far as the O’s were concerned, the most notable aspects of the deadline were the moves not made. It seemed that reliever Mychal Givens would draw interest, as he was carrying strong peripherals despite an ugly ERA. No doubt the Orioles received offers, but they ultimately elected to hold him in hopes that he’d boost his value. That’s just what has happened so far: opposing hitters have mustered only seven singles and two walks against him over his past 13 appearances, during which time Givens has racked up 19 strikeouts.

Otherwise, the non-moves weren’t terribly surprising, but there are a few of note. There was never much of a build-up surrounding young outfielder Trey Mancini. It’ll be interesting to see whether that occurs this winter. He’s also an extension possibility. The O’s also elected to hang onto infielders Hanser Alberto and Jonathan Villar. Both have hit quite well since the deadline, are on track to be tendered contracts, and could be traded away at any point moving forward.

Hunter Renfroe’s Second-Half Decline

By Connor Byrne | September 10, 2019 at 8:49pm CDT

Just a couple months ago, Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe looked like a legitimate breakout player. As a result, the defensively adept slugger drew plenty of trade interest leading up to the deadline, though the Padres understandably elected against parting with him. This season has since become about looking forward for the out-of-contention Padres, who are reportedly set to count on Renfroe as one of their main outfielders again in 2020. There are clear reasons for that – including Renfroe’s 31 home runs, whopping 22 Defensive Runs Saved, and his three remaining seasons of team control – but they’ll need the 27-year-old to get off the schneid at the plate in 2020 to increase their chances of breaking a seemingly interminable playoff drought.

Although his HR total is prodigious, Renfroe has only been a middling offensive performer this year, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. His .222/.290/.498 line in 462 trips to the plate has led to an unspectacular 99 wRC+. Despite his defensive excellence, Renfroe’s so-so offense has limited him to 1.9 fWAR, essentially making him an average player. There’s value in that, especially on a cheap salary, though Renfroe looked as if he was destined for better not long ago. When the All-Star break rolled around in mid-July, Renfroe had already put up 2.4 fWAR with 27 homers and a 130 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances. Since then, however, he has dipped to a dismal .169/.260/.291 line with four HRs across 173 PA. Renfroe’s minus-0.5 fWAR during the second half of the season ties him for the fourth-worst mark in the game.

If you’re wondering what caused the destruction of Renfroe’s offensive numbers, it starts with a massive downturn in power – evidenced in part by the noticeable decrease in HRs. Renfroe boasted a ridiculous .361 ISO at the break, but the number has plummeted to a nonthreatening .122 during the second half of the season. A mammoth decline in impactful contact is an obvious cause. According to FanGraphs, Renfroe posted a hard-hit rate of 52.1 percent over the first couple months of the year. The figure has fallen to 33.7 since the All-Star Game, while Renfroe has made far less contact in general and seen his strikeout rate soar from 27.3 percent to an even 37.0.

Health may be factoring into Renfroe’s late-season issues, as manager Andy Green said Tuesday (via Dennis Lin of The Athletic) that his production has “suffered because of” a sore elbow and a problematic ankle. Likewise, it hasn’t helped Renfroe’s cause that pitchers have somewhat changed their approach when he has come to the plate, having thrown more sliders against him as the season has progressed, per FanGraphs. Renfroe’s especially vulnerable when dealing with breaking pitches, according to Statcast, which credits him with a .237 weighted on-base average/.219 expected wOBA against those offerings.

By Statcast’s standards, Renfroe’s overall output has been something of a mixed bag. He ranks in the league’s 66th percentile or better in exit velocity and Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric, but his other numbers aren’t as encouraging. For one, Renfroe’s expected batting average – .218 – dwells toward the bottom of the league (third percentile). And his xwOBA (.310; 27th percentile) also doesn’t offer much encouragement, suggesting he has actually been fortunate to hit for a real wOBA (.328) that’s more mediocre than spectacular.

In spite of his second-half woes, it’s evident San Diego views Renfroe as a player who could be part of the solution as it seeks a return to relevance. But if Renfroe’s really going to emerge as a high-end complement to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in 2020, the Padres will need the player who showed up during the first half of this season to reappear going forward. If healthy, perhaps he will.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Starlin Castro: Back From The Abyss

By Connor Byrne | September 10, 2019 at 6:49pm CDT

As cliched as it sounds, this truly has been a tale of two seasons for Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro. Back on July 2, I wrote a piece titled “Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season.” At that point, the four-time All-Star was in the throes of one of the worst years of anyone in baseball. He was a .230/.258/.313 hitter whose 51 wRC+ ranked last among qualified hitters and whose minus-1.2 fWAR was also at the absolute bottom of the sport. Since that date, though, Castro has rescued his season – an especially fortuitous development for someone who’s likely headed for free agency in another couple months.

This will hardly go down as a banner year for Castro, whose sorry first half has doomed him to a .270/.298/.420 line with an 87 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR through 597 plate appearances. But the 29-year-old has quietly been among the majors’ most effective position players going back to the beginning of July. Since then, Castro has batted .324/.353/.567 in 252 trips to the plate. The 138 wRC+ he has posted ties him with Mets first baseman and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso, while the 2.0 fWAR Castro has accrued puts him in company with MVP candidates Cody Bellinger and Ronald Acuna Jr., among other big-time producers.

So what’s behind Castro’s radical change in production? A massive upswing in power seems to be the obvious answer. When Castro was one of the game’s least effective hitters, he managed a pitiful .083 ISO – the game’s third-lowest figure – and just four home runs. Over the past couple months, though, Castro’s ISO has climbed to .244, and he has swatted 13 homers. As always, Castro has drawn few walks and struck out less than most players. However, a more aggressive, power-driven approach has led to a drastic turnaround. Take a look…

Castro before July:

Groundball percentage: 52.2
Fly ball percentage: 30.9
Line drive percentage: 16.7
Pull percentage: 40.8
Infield fly percentage: 10.7
Hard-hit percentage (per FanGraphs): 40.1

Castro since:

Groundball percentage: 43.9
Flyball percentage: 33.3
Line drive percentage: 22.7
Pull percentage: 49.5
Infield fly percentage: 7.6
Hard-hit percentage: 43.4

All of the above bodes well for an increase in power, making it no surprise Castro’s home run-to-fly ball rate has risen from a meager 6.0 percent to 19.7 since he began digging himself out of an enormous hole earlier in the summer. The success has come with less selectivity for Castro, whose swing rate has climbed from 47.6 percent to 51.3 in the past couple months. At the same time, Castro has made less contact and swung and missed more, but it hasn’t mattered. The rise in meaningful contact has helped beget a sizable gain in batting average on balls in play (from .262 to .346). While there may be good fortune baked into the new number, it’s closer to Castro’s career figure than his first-half mark. Dating back to his MLB debut in 2010, the former Cub and Yankee has recorded a .320 BABIP. Moreover, Castro has registered a BABIP of .330 or greater in five different seasons. With that in mind, it’s all the more clear that his in-season revival hasn’t simply been a product of luck.

Looking past this season – which will go down as yet another lost campaign for the woebegone Marlins – Castro still has another year of team control remaining. However, even though Castro has gone back to being a useful contributor as the season has gone on, the Marlins are sure to decline his $16MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Consequently, Castro will get his first taste of free agency on the heels of a quality finish to the season. That’s a major relief for a player whose contract year looked like a disaster not long ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Luke Voit Trade Doesn’t Look So Lopsided Anymore

By Steve Adams | September 4, 2019 at 5:44pm CDT

The Luke Voit trade (as it’s now known) barely drew any headlines when it was struck last July between the Cardinals and Yankees. Chasen Shreve was the best-known player in a deal that was viewed largely as two clubs dealing from positions of organizational depth.

Voit got a quick look with the Yankees before being optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, then returned in late August when the Yankees needed an extra bat after Didi Gregorius landed on the shelf due to a heel injury. His first two appearances in his second Yankees stint were of the pinch-hit variety, but he drew a start at first base on Aug. 24 and, in belting a pair of home runs that day, began a rapid ascension. Those two long ball were the first of seven in a 12-game span. By the end of the year, Voit had exploded with a .333/.405/.689 batting line and 14 home runs in just 148 plate appearances as a Yankee.

A huge showing in Spring Training and yet another Greg Bird injury locked Voit into a spot on the Yankees’ Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, Shreve was designated for assignment by the Cardinals late in camp and went unclaimed on waivers. The trade looked like an all-out heist for the Yankees.

Enter Giovanny Gallegos.

The least-known player involved in that July 28 swap, Gallegos didn’t distinguish himself much early in his Cardinals tenure. It’s true that he dominated in 16 2/3 innings with the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate following the trade in 2018, but he made just two big league appearances in St. Louis (1 1/3 innings pitched) last season and didn’t even break camp with the Cards in 2019. When he did arrive in the Majors on April 11, Gallegos limped out to a slow start. He allowed three home runs and pitched to a 4.80 ERA through his first 15 innings this season. While the 25-to-5 K/BB ratio he posted in that time looked encouraging, Voit was at that point sitting on a .282/.382/.575 batting line and 24 home runs in 319 total plate appearances as a Yankee. The Cardinals drew plenty of criticism for the trade (including from myself).

That May 12 cutoff, admittedly, is rather arbitrary. But since that point, Gallegos has been one of the most effective relief pitchers on the planet. Over his past 46 2/3 innings of work, the right-hander has pitched to a pristine 1.35 ERA with a 56-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s allowed only three home runs in that span — the same number he yielded in his first 15 innings — and held opponents to a .150/.194/.250 batting line (.193 wOBA) through 170 plate appearances.

Since that time, there’s not a single pitcher in baseball (min. 40 IP) who has been tougher to hit than Gallegos. That .190 wOBA is more than 30 points lower than the second-best pitcher in that same span (Boston’s Brandon Workman). He’s surely benefited from some good fortune (.206 BABIP, 90 percent strand rate), but Gallegos is also 11th in the big leagues with a 28.8 K-BB% in that time. He’s whiffed 32.9 percent of the batters he’s faced since that point and walked just 4.1 percent of them.

On the season as a whole, Gallegos is now boasting a 2.19 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 0.88 HR/9. A 2.58 FIP and 2.70 SIERA support his emergence as a top-tier reliever. His 16.7 percent swinging-strike rate puts him on par with Max Scherzer and places him 11th among MLB pitchers with at least 50 innings thrown in 2019. Statcast indicates that Gallegos is in the 87th percentile of MLB hurlers in terms of fastball spin rate. He’s also in the 87th percentile in expected slugging percentage and the 97th percentile in both expected batting average-against and expected wOBA-against. While some higher-profile relievers have posted similar ERAs with the benefit of some smoke and mirrors, Gallegos’ success doesn’t look to be a fluke.

All of that is particularly good news for the Cardinals, because they can control the late-blooming 28-year-old all the way through the 2024 season. Gallegos won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 campaign; he’ll earn scarcely more than the league minimum in both the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. There’s no more volatile asset in Major League Baseball than relief pitchers, but for the time being, Gallegos has dominated enough to flip the narrative on last year’s trade. One can certainly still argue that the Cards would’ve been better off keeping Voit, but St. Louis was by no means left empty-handed and may even have come away from the exchange with a dominant bullpen anchor for years to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: NL Central

By Jeff Todd | September 3, 2019 at 10:54am CDT

It has only been four weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central; now we’ll go over to the National League’s middle division.

Cardinals

When the Cards dropped five of six games after the trade deadline, it looked as if they may be on the brink of a collapse. But the club recovered with a stirring, 19-5 run. So … what caused it? A big deadline blockbuster? Multiple, well-conceived additions? Not so much.

The only move the Cards made this summer was a roster-management swap in which they sent veteran infielder Jedd Gyorko to the Dodgers. He’s playing a limited role in L.A. and hasn’t yet done anything of note. Back in St. Louis, the Cards remain laden with position-player options. A deep September roster will help the club mix and match down the stretch, though cramming talent onto a postseason roster will be more difficult.

When the Cards held pat at the deadline, it was fair to wonder whether the team’s uncertain place in the standings was a significant factor. Now, there’s little question that the club has the inside track to a divisional appearance, if not more. It was arguable at the time that the club ought to cash in some of its many solid young assets in pursuit of a higher-end starter or center fielder. So far, the decision not to do so hasn’t hurt (far from it). We’ll see how it plays out over the final month and beyond.

Cubs

The Cubbies’ biggest mid-season acquisition came not via trade, but by way of signing. But closer Craig Kimbrel hasn’t had the biggest impact. That honor would go to outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who burst to life after being sent to Chicago. He carries a 1.060 OPS through thirty games. The move did cost two pitchers (Paul Richan and Alex Lange) that now feature among the top thirty or so Tigers farmhands. The former has shown well since the deal, carrying a 29:2 K/BB ratio over five High-A starts.

Also more helpful to this point than Kimbrel is veteran reliever David Phelps, who has been excellent since coming over. He has allowed just two earned runs in 13 appearances. That deal could still cost in the long run. It cost the Cubbies Tom Hatch, a Double-A starter who has compiled 35 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA pitching with an intriguing 34:2 K/BB ratio since the swap.

A low-risk shot on Derek Holland hasn’t really paid dividends, as he wasn’t terribly effective before hitting the injured list. But he could still return and provide an important pen presence late in the season. Brad Wieck, acquired when the club gave up on Carl Edwards Jr., has added a bit of lefty relief depth. Edwards was knocked around before hitting the IL, so there aren’t any regrets there.

There was also a sort of hot-stove miniseries regarding the Cubs catching situation. The team added Martin Maldonado but then sent him on to the Astros for Tony Kemp. When starter Willson Contreras went down with a significant injury, the club picked up Jonathan Lucroy. The club was simply acting on the needs it had before it, but this series of moves hasn’t really worked out. Maldonado would be preferable to Lucroy at this stage of their respective careers; Kemp has struggled badly at the plate and doesn’t seem all that necessary to a roster with a wide variety of infield/outfield-capable players.

While the Cubs are now staring at a three-game deficit in the NL Central, they’ve moved into strong Wild Card position. It’s hard to say they realistically could or should have done much more at the deadline.

Brewers

The Milwaukee org has fallen off the pace since the deadline, playing sub-.500 ball over the month of August. That drop coincided with the rise of the Redbirds … in spite of the fact that the Brew Crew front office was far more active on the trade market — and generally successful in unearthing value.

Adding Jordan Lyles, at the cost of pitching prospect Cody Ponce, has been a clear win to this point. The 28-year-old Lyles has a 2.51 ERA through six starts in Milwaukee. Ponce, a former second-round pick, could yet emerge but hasn’t done anything since the deal to suggest the Brewers made a big mistake by parting with him.

Improving the bullpen was also a key need and the Brewers accomplished that in their swap with the Giants. Lefty Drew Pomeranz has turned on the afterburners of late. Overall, he has allowed just four earned runs with a 22:7 K/BB ratio over 13 2/3 innings. Righty Ray Black has just two strikeouts in his 6 2/3 innings but has managed to keep opponents to just a pair of earned runs. It’ll be interesting to see whether former top prospect Mauricio Dubon makes the Milwaukee org pay for parting with him. He’d likely be playing a significant role there with Keston Hiura injured; instead, he’s getting a full MLB showcase with the Giants.

The Brewers’ other trade hasn’t yet added value but also hasn’t hurt much. Though Jesus Aguilar started out hot after the Brewers sent him to the Rays, he has fallen back to an unremarkable .279/.351/.412 overall slash with his new club. The hurler acquired in return, Jake Faria, has been knocked around a bit in three MLB appearances.

Reds

The Cincinnati front office turned in what was arguably the most interesting overall package of deadline moves. With only an outside chance at a postseason run this season, but a keen desire to contend as soon as possible, the focus was on the near-future.

First and foremost was the surprising move to bring in veteran righty Trevor Bauer. After picking up multiple short-term starters in the prior offseason, the Reds were in need of another reload entering 2020. In that respect, going for Bauer made for an early shopping trip. He has struggled quite a bit working to an 8.40 ERA in thirty innings, though he’s still sporting a 37:13 K/BB ratio. It just hasn’t been a great follow-up season for a pitcher who landed sixth in the Cy Young voting last year. The Reds are betting he’ll figure out how to return to dominance over the offseason.

The cost for Bauer was fairly steep. Outfielder Yasiel Puig is a pending free agent, but he could’ve been cashed in otherwise. Top prospect Taylor Trammell isn’t tearing up Double-A with the Padres organization, but remains a highly regarded player. And then there’s the other, least-known aspect of the swap. Lefty Scott Moss was pitching well before the swap but has impressed all the more since. He even overcame the treacherous International League in a late stint, allowing just four earned runs on a dozen hits with 23 strikeouts and eight walks in 18 2/3 innings.

Having picked up Bauer, the Reds proceeded to ship out pending free agent starter Tanner Roark. That helped cover the late-2019 salary of the new rotation piece and also landed the team a new prospect in recent second-round pick Jameson Hannah. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a shining season thus far for Hannah, who struggled to a .224/.325/.299 slash in 78 plate appearances after the deal.

Otherwise, the Reds don’t regret dumping Scooter Gennett, whose feel-good tenure in Cincinnati ended in bitterness. He didn’t last long in San Francisco. The club added righty Justin Grimm for depth, but he hasn’t been called upon.

Pirates

The Pirates were within 2.5 games of the division lead as late as July 7th, but it has been an unmitigated disaster ever since. It was already clear that this wasn’t going to be the team’s year by the time the deadline hit, but that didn’t set the stage for a sell-off.

The deadline period ended up being rather quiet. After the aforementioned Lyles deal, the Pirates swapped Corey Dickerson to the Phillies for some international bonus capacity and a PTBNL. Something may ultimately come of the acquired assets — Ponce seems like a good bet to appear in the majors at some point — but it was hardly a moment of note.

It could’ve been different. The Pirates discussed Felipe Vazquez with the Dodgers and could’ve come away with some serious talent for the high-end reliever. The club also could’ve held trade talks on Starling Marte, Josh Bell, or others. But it’s also plenty understandable that the organization decided against rushing into a decision on such significant assets. The pressure of the deadline might’ve spiked Vazquez’s value, but it could also be that the Bucs can get as much or more by shopping him over the winter (if they decide to do so at all). There’s always injury risk, but he has only continued to excel. While there is an argument to be made that the organization ought to pursue a different direction after another disappointing season, the club still has every opportunity to do so after holding tight this summer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: First Basemen

By Steve Adams | August 30, 2019 at 11:36pm CDT

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently previewed the upcoming offseason market for catchers, highlighting that there’s effectively one star option, a series of potential regulars and several backups/role players who could still help in the latter stages of their respective careers. The market for first basemen is even thinner, though there are still some intriguing names for clubs seeking a veteran to fill that role.

A Free-Agent in Name Only?

Jose Abreu: The 32-year-old Abreu would be the top first base option on the open market — if anyone believes he’s actually going to explore offers from all 30 teams. The mutual admiration between Abreu and the organization has been covered ad nauseum throughout years of him being listed as a potential trade candidate. Both White Sox GM Rick Hahn and Abreu himself have spoken frequently about the desire to work out an extension, with Abreu making his most emphatic statement to date just last week. “Like I said before, if the team doesn’t sign me, I’m going to sign myself here,” Abreu told Daryl Van-Schouwen of the Sun-Times. Abreu later added that owner Jerry Reinsdorf has strongly suggested to him that he’ll be with the Sox beyond 2019. The big man is hitting .284/.323/.503 with 28 homers, but the smart money is on him staying with the South Siders.

The Top Option

Justin Smoak: With Abreu not likely to change uniforms, the switch-hitting Smoak becomes the best bet on the open market. Traditionalists will bristle at Smoak’s paltry .216 batting average, but he’s in the midst of a third straight season with a .350 OBP or better. He’s homered 20-plus times in each of those seasons and posted an ISO (slugging minus batting average) above .200 four times in the past five years (including this year’s even .200 mark). Smoak is sitting on a career-high 16.6 percent walk rate and has cut his strikeout rate to 20.4 percent. Smoak may never match 2017’s total of 38 big flies, but he’s a switch-hitting on-base threat with above-average pop who can play a respectable first base.

Platoon/Bench Bats

David Freese: Turning to the short side of the platoon, the 36-year-old Freese (37 next April) has never had a below-average offensive season by measure of wRC+. He’s long tormented left-handed pitching (.301/.380/.468 in 1180 PAs) and has more than held his own against same-handed opponents over the past couple seasons. Freese’s role with the Dodgers has been extremely limited in 2019 (163 PAs), but there’s little indication that his offensive capabilities are eroding. His age and part-time role in recent seasons will probably prevent him from getting a full-time gig in the offseason, but Freese would be a terrific veteran addition to the bench of many contenders.
Mitch Moreland: Soon to turn 34, Moreland has drawn consistently positive reviews for his defense at first base. It’s a big reason that Boston has deployed him at the position over the past three seasons, most recently inking him to a two-year deal prior to the 2018 season. Moreland has all of 36 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in 2019 — spoiler alert: they haven’t gone well — but he’s clobbered righties at a .265/.341/.556 line through 189 plate appearances. He’s missed time due to back and quad injuries this season, and it’s possible that those maladies have contributed to his uncharacteristically below-average defensive ratings. Moreland’s history of plus glovework and still-potent bat against righties should land him a big league pact.
Steve Pearce: A postseason hero in 2018, Pearce has had an utterly miserable season. A back injury has limited him to 99 plate appearances, during which time he’s posted a putrid .180/.245/.258 output. Pearce doesn’t look healthy and, heading into his age-37 season, will almost certainly need to settle for a minor league deal. His outstanding 2018 showing and lifetime .264/.347/.491 line against right-handed pitching are points in his favor.
Neil Walker: As of this writing, Walker’s batting line is effectively league average (100 wRC+, 96 OPS+), making last year’s season with the Yankees the lone aberration on an otherwise strong track record. He’s no longer an everyday option at second base, but Walker can handle first, second, third and some corner outfield work while giving professional at-bats from both sides of the dish. He had to settle for a $2MM guarantee on a non-contender this season, but a better showing at the plate in 2019 (.267/.344/.394 with a pitcher-friendly home park in Miami) should convince clubs he has some mileage left.
Martin Prado: Walker’s teammate, Prado will soon turn 36 and is coming off several seasons ruined by hamstring and quadriceps injuries. Those issues have relegated him primarily to first base duties. The fact that each of his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all check in south of .300 doesn’t bode well for Prado. But, in 81 trips to the plate against lefties, he’s hit .311/.346/.378 with an eight percent strikeout rate. Prado is, by all accounts, a boon to any clubhouse into which he steps foot, but interest is going to be limited.

Veterans with Club Options

Anthony Rizzo: Dream on. Rizzo’s $14.5MM club option is among the easiest calls in the game. He won’t sniff the open market.
Eric Thames: The $7.5MM option on Thames’ contract comes with a $1MM buyout — making him a $6.5MM decision for the Brewers. The former KBO superstar’s bat looked to be on the downswing in 2018, but he’s bounced back in 2019 and is currently sporting a haughty .256/.355/.508 slash with 19 dingers and doubles apiece in 379 plate appearances (plus a couple of triples). Thames is best paired with a right-handed-hitting platoon partner, but his production against righties looks to be worth this modest price.
Ryan Zimmerman: Nationals icon or not, Zimmerman won’t have his $18MM club option exercised on the heels of an injury-shortened year that has currently consisted of a .246/.311/.390 output through 132 plate appearances. It’s possible that the Nats will bring him back at a (much) lower rate, but Zimmerman will turn 35 years old next month. He’ll have to earn his way back into a full-time role regardless of where he’s playing.
Matt Adams: Another Washington first baseman, Adams has a $4MM mutual option (or a $1MM buyout) for next season. It’s safe to assume at this point that Adams is never going to be much of a threat against opposing lefties, but he’s hit righties at a .243/.300/.514 clip this year. This is his third straight 20-homer season, although that mark is accompanied by heretofore unseen contact issues (33.1 percent strikeout rate). Adams will turn 31 on Saturday, which, paired with his platoon issues, could well keep him from signing a multi-year deal if he returns to free agency. But he’s an established bat against righties who can probably be had on an affordable one-year offer this winter.

Depth Options

Yonder Alonso, Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda and Hanley Ramirez were all released this season. Alonso is hitting well as a Rockie. Ramirez underwent shoulder surgery. Reynolds has yet to latch on elsewhere. Duda was cut loose for a second time earlier this week.

The Phillies have a trio of options who can handle first base in Brad Miller, Sean Rodriguez and Logan Morrison. Of the bunch, Morrison is the wild card who could be of the greatest intrigue. A torn labrum in his hip ruined LoMo’s 2018 season, but he decimated Triple-A pitching this season to earn another look in the big leagues and has hit well through a tiny sample of 15 PAs in Philly. Morrison belted 38 home runs as recently as 2017 with Tampa Bay.

Logan Forsythe had a hot start with the Rangers but has seen his bat tail off in recent months. He’s not a prototypical first baseman but can play all over the infield and has generally handled lefties well. Gerardo Parra isn’t a first baseman by nature, either, but he’s seen some time there with the Nats this season and been reasonably productive in a limited role.

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: AL Central

By Jeff Todd | August 30, 2019 at 10:33pm CDT

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We’ll take things one division at a time, starting with the AL Central.

Twins

Many wanted to see the Minnesota organization make a splash, and that didn’t really occur. But it wasn’t a quiet deadline, either. The bullpen was the focus, with Sam Dyson (link) and Sergio Romo (link) added to upgrade the late-inning mix. While the former was clearly the bigger add, the latter has been the more impactful so far. Dyson has struggled with biceps tendinitis and has not impressed in nine appearances (seven earned runs, 7:4 K/BB ratio). Romo, on the other hand, has turned in solid results (five earned in 11 2/3 innings) with an impressive combination of 10.8 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He has even picked up three saves.

On the prospect side, parting with Jaylin Davis could hurt, though he’s still awaiting an MLB opportunity while continuing to obliterate Triple-A pitching at Triple-A. Kai-Wei Teng and Prelander Berroa, the other two youngsters sent to San Francisco for Dyson, are far-off pitching prospects, so it’s tough to gauge much from their recent showings. First baseman Lewin Diaz, who went to Miami in the Romo swap, has tailed off a bit in the on-base department since changing hands, though he’s still producing lots of power and may just be experiencing a sample blip.

Notably, the Twins also acquired a youngster in the Romo deal: 22-year-old Chris Vallimont, who was promoted to High-A and has responded with a 28:4 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings. He’ll be an interesting player to track. The Minnesota front office also made a few low-cost depth/future-oriented moves, acquiring Jeremy Bleich (link) and Marcos Diplan (link). Neither has appeared at the MLB level to this point, though it’s possible one or both could be called upon once rosters expand.

It remains to be seen whether the Twins will regret their modest approach to the summer trade period. A big-game starter or high-powered reliever might’ve made sense. The club has slightly extended its division lead (from 3.0 to 3.5 games) since the deadline, though the Indians twice pulled into a tie. There’s still a lot of work to be done over the final month of the season to hold off the Cleveland organization. Even if they take the division, the Twins will need every bit of talent they can muster in an ALDS match-up with the Astros or Yankees (whichever finishes with the lesser record). Of course, the presence of those powerhouses also speaks in favor of something less than all-in deadline. The Twins entered the season saying they’d rise or fall with their internal talent, and that largely remains the case.

Indians

The Cleveland organization entered the deadline in hot pursuit of the Twins and eventually caught up. It seemed then that they might zip right past, but that didn’t come to pass. Indeed, the Indians have since lost one of their best players (Jose Ramirez) and are again looking up at a significant (but hardly insurmountable) gap.

So … what to make of their deadline efforts? They added a trio of players from the Rays in a pair of deals. Reliever Hunter Wood has been solid, with three earned runs and nine strikeouts against a single walk over 8 1/3 innings. Infielders Andrew Velazquez and Christian Arroyo haven’t appeared in the majors. Another relief arm, Phil Maton, has just filled in briefly since his arrival (link).

Hang on, we’re forgetting something here. Oh, right, that mind-bending deal in which the win-now Indians sent an excellent veteran starter to the win-soon Reds for a portfolio of player assets with varying present and future value. It’s working out so far. Trevor Bauer has not impressed in Cincinnati. The Indians have kept receiving great pitching even without three members of the vaunted rotation heading into the season. Yasiel Puig has hit well. Franmil Reyes hasn’t, though there’s still reason to hope for a bounce back and he’s a long-term piece as well. Lefty Logan Allen has made just one MLB relief appearance and has been drubbed at Triple-A; he’ll need to improve, but he was acquired with the future in mind. Allen has been outperformed handily by the lesser-known Scott Moss, who is throwing well with his new organization. The final piece of the deal, Victor Nova, is too far off to warrant close attention at this stage.

It’s going to take a long time to fully unpack that deal. There’s still a chance the Indians will end up missing Bauer rather badly, whether late in 2019 or in the 2020 campaign. But the club is probably feeling rather pleased with the early returns.

White Sox

The signature South Side deadline move was … to shed the contract of injured reliever Nate Jones for some international spending capacity and obscure righties Joseph Jarneski and Ray Castro. The former has struggled badly since the swap. The latter has reached new strikeout levels, but it’s a short-sample at rookie ball.

That seemed like a worthwhile deal for the organization, but it’s utterly unremarkable as a headliner for the summer trade period. It’s not as if the rebuilding Chicago organization lacked trade candidates. Closer Alex Colome was chief among them. We’ll see how things turn out, but that seems to be a missed opportunity. Colome is still securing saves, but he carries marginal peripherals and has allowed nearly as many walks as runs this month (seven of the former and eight of the latter).

Most of the club’s other potential trade pieces weren’t obvious trade candidates by the time the deadline came around. Jose Abreu is on track to return on some kind of new arrangement. Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Jon Jay, and Welington Castillo had all struggled. So had Ivan Nova, apart from two strong starts before the deadline. (That ultimately kicked off an excellent — and still-ongoing — run of success for the veteran, though it wasn’t really apparent at the time and it’s still now clear how sustainable it is.) It’s understandable that the White Sox didn’t make further deals, then, though that is also a bit of a disappointment in its own right.

Royals

Adding Mike Montgomery for Martin Maldonado was a sensible move to get some innings and perhaps add a piece that can help in the future. Montgomery has been steady since returning to his first professional organization, though his addition doesn’t seem to be laden with upside. Auctioning off Jake Diekman was an obvious move. That netted young righty Ismael Aquino and outfield prospect Dairon Blanco. The former is a rookie ball reliever, so his recent results are all but irrelevant. The latter is scuffling a bit at Double-A, with a .250/.302/.333 slash in 116 plate appearances since the swap. Fortunately, the Royals won’t be pressed to put him on the 40-man. Blanco is already 26 but is only in his second professional season, having come over from Cuba. And the Royals spun off Homer Bailey for infielder Kevin Merrell, who hasn’t hit well on either side of the swap.

That was all the action, until the Royals lucked out a bit when the Braves claimed Billy Hamilton off waivers. Those moves were just fine in isolation. But should the K.C. org have done more?

Alex Gordon has special status with the club. While he has had a nice season, he was never going to be in great demand anyway. Moving Danny Duffy might have made sense, but he probably hasn’t thrown well enough to press a deal at this stage.

In two other cases, though, the arguments were stronger in favor of a move. Ian Kennedy seems to have found new life as a late-inning reliever. He’s not showing dominant form, but probably was pitching well enough for the Royals to have saved a pretty big chunk of the remaining money owed. (The Braves took on all the remaining salary owed to Mark Melancon, for one point of reference.) Kennedy has been getting the job done since the deadline, except for one rough outing, but has been knocked around a bit in August (.303/.378/.576). Perhaps the Royals really are content just to hang on to him, but it seemed the deadline offered a good opportunity to move on.

That brings us to Whit Merrifield, who was the most interesting trade piece the Royals held this summer. There’s evidently a sense that the 30-year-old will still be an important piece when this team is ready again to contend. It’s certainly possible he’ll still be a good player by that time, but the most valuable portion of his contractual control is the near future. While it is plenty understandable that the K.C. club wanted to keep Merrifield in the fold, it wouldn’t be altogether surprising if we end up looking back and wondering if there was a missed opportunity. It’s worth noting that Merrifield ought to be quite marketable in the offseason, though teams presumably would’ve given up more to have him down the stretch in 2019.

Tigers

The cellar-dwelling Tigers did what they needed to do by moving veterans Shane Greene (link) and Nicholas Castellanos (link). As for the returns … let’s just say that initial reports they were chasing top prospects didn’t come to fruition. From the Greene swap, Joey Wentz has turned in four dominant starts at Triple-A, which is nice to see. Travis Demeritte was popped right onto the MLB roster. He’s striking out a lot but generally holding his own (.250/.320/.391) and has probably shown enough to warrant a longer look next year.

The two pitchers acquired for Castellanos — Paul Richan and Alex Lange — have mostly continued doing what they had been before the swap. Neither is considered a top prospect, but both certainly buttress the already impressive group of upper-minors arms in the Detroit system. You might wish you could rewind and tell everybody what kind of production Castellanos was destined to provide — he has already matched the tally of home runs (11) he produced in 100 games with the Tigers over 27 with the Cubs — but that’s just not how the world works.

While some might say the Tigers should have done better in those deals, we really can’t say without knowing what the alternatives were. It’s hard to question the decision to pull the trigger on the best-available deal for those particular players. And we can’t reasonably argue that the front office should have pushed harder to deal other players on the roster … with one possible exception, at least.

Breakout lefty Matthew Boyd is a bit of a polarizing figure among hot-stove fans. The 28-year-old reached the trade deadline with a sub-4.00 ERA and an extremely impressive combination of 178 strikeouts and 29 walks. There were surely quite a few contenders with keen interest, particularly since Boyd was not just a potential difference-maker now but also comes with three seasons of team control.

The Tigers evidently did not feel rushed to make a deal, as word emerged just before the deadline that the team was not intrigued by any of the chatter to that point. Things can always change at the last minute, but when the dust settled he had not changed hands.

Will they come to regret it? Only time will tell. Boyd has had some struggles in August, surrendering a whopping ten long balls in his past 26 2/3 innings. That doesn’t necessarily indicate he’s about to turn into a pumpkin, but it does dent his trade value heading into the offseason.

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