MLBTR Originals

We’re nearing the end of the 2019 regular season, a campaign which has featured plenty of valuable contributions from young starters. By my count, no fewer than 10 starters age 25 or younger have excelled this year. Several of them could continue helping their teams’ causes once the postseason rolls around in a couple months. In alphabetical order, let’s take a look at the best of the bunch…

Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2019; scheduled for free agency after 2022):

• This has been the third straight quality season for Berrios, who has amassed 157 2/3 innings of 3.37 ERA/3.92 FIP ball with 8.56 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9. Aside from a rough debut in 2016, Berrios has been among the most impressive young starters in the game throughout his career.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Indians (age: 24; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency after 2024):

• Bieber was terrific over a 114 2/3-inning debut in 2018, but he has been downright spectacular this year. While Bieber won the MVP of the All-Star Game, which was held in his team’s city of Cleveland, he has been even more impressive in meaningful action. Bieber owns a 3.27 ERA/3.32 FIP with 11.09 K/9 against 1.83 BB/9 in 162 1/3 frames of action. Only four starters have outdone Bieber’s K/BB ratio of 6.06.

Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):

• Buehler, whose fastball averages just under 97 mph, is one of the few starters to outperform Bieber in K/BB ratio (6.38). His 10.57 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 have helped him log a sterling 3.31 ERA/3.00 FIP over 141 1/3 innings, thus aiding Buehler in replicating the phenomenal production he posted during his 137 1/3-frame rookie campaign a year ago.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals (age: 23; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):

• One of the youngest starters on this youth-laden list, Flaherty was superb across 151 innings last year and has followed that up properly this season. While Flaherty owned an unattractive 4.90 ERA as recently as July 2, he has caught fire since then. In his most recent eight starts, Flaherty has yielded a mere five earned runs on 25 hits with 61 strikeouts and 14 walks in 50 1/3 innings. Flaherty now owns a 3.46 ERA/4.02 FIP and 10.39 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 through 140 1/3 innings this season.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox (age: 25; team control: eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2023):

• As we covered in greater detail back in May, Giolito has figured it out this season. The former can’t-miss prospect was a disaster as recently as last year, but the 2019 version has recorded a nearly matching 3.41 ERA/3.37 FIP with 11.48 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 in 142 2/3 innings. Giolito’s success has come thanks in part to a dramatic increase in velocity – after averaging 92.8 mph on his fastball in 2018, he’s up to 94.5 this season.

German Marquez, RHP, Rockies (age: 24; team control: signed through 2023 for a guaranteed five years and $43MM):

• The hard-throwing Marquez doesn’t get nearly enough recognition, largely because he pitches in Colorado, but the fact that he’s able to succeed despite calling Coors Field home should earn him extra credit. He was an absolute strikeout machine in 2018, when he punched out 230 hitters in 196 innings en route to a 3.77 ERA/3.40 FIP. That convinced the Rockies to lock up Marquez at set prices for the foreseeable future. Good move on their part. Although Marquez hasn’t been as effective this season, any team would take the 4.71 ERA/3.95 FIP, 9.16 K/9 against 1.77 BB/9, and 50 percent groundball rate he has put up over 168 frames.

Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres (age: 23; eligible for arbitration after 2021; scheduled for free agency 2024):

• Paddack has had a tough time over three August starts, but the former top prospect has nonetheless lived up to his pre-MLB billing this year. The rookie has registered a 3.44 ERA/4.21 FIP with 9.47 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 in his first 115 major league innings. If you’re a fan of WHIP, Paddack’s minuscule 0.98 mark ties him with Astros stars Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke for fourth among those who have tossed 100-plus innings in 2019.

Mike Soroka, RHP, Braves (age: 22; eligible for arbitration after 2020; scheduled for free agency after 2024):

• We arrive at the youngest starter on this list, someone who’d have a better shot at NL Rookie of the Year honors if not for the exploits of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. But Soroka will definitely get some votes in his own right, especially considering he’s the premier starter on a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. The sinker-reliant Soroka has managed a brilliant 2.41 ERA/3.29 FIP with 7.15 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a groundball percentage of 54.0 through 134 2/3 innings this season.

Injury omissions:

None of the Yankees’ Luis Severino, the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani or the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. have thrown a pitch this season because of injuries. The 25-year-old Severino, who could still take the mound sometime in the next couple months, may be the most enticing pitcher of the trio. He was a true ace from 2017-18, a 384 2/3-inning span in which he pitched to a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP with 10.53 K/9 against 2.27 BB/9. Ohtani, also 25, only racked up 51 2/3 frames during his debut season in 2018, but the two-way star wowed then with a 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP and 10.97 K/9 against 3.83 BB/9. And McCullers, yet another 25-year-old, combined for 453 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA/3.24 FIP ball with 10.1 K/9, 3.53 BB/9 and a strong 54.6 percent groundball rate from 2015-18 before joining Ohtani in undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall.

Honorable mentions:

No disrespect to the Braves’ Max Fried (25) or the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson (24), but they’re overshadowed by better teammates in Soroka and Flaherty, respectively.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The ability to handle late-inning pressure still has value to teams. But the accumulation of saves, standing alone, isn’t generally the driver of open-market bullpen salaries that it once was. For arbitration, however, saves tallies pay big, opening the door to significant earning opportunities for relievers.

So, which players have put themselves in position to command nice salary boosts this fall owing to their saves tallies? Here’s a list of the baker’s dozen hurlers who’ll be eligible for arbitration next year and have already accrued double-digit saves in 2019:

• Kirby Yates, Padres ($3.062MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Currently pacing all of baseball with 33 saves, Yates is lining up quite a fruitful final trip through arbitration. He’s not working off of the biggest platform, but he’s likely to get the biggest raise of this group with his saves totals and general brilliance (1.13 ERA, 77 strikeouts) … unless he and the Friars strike an extension.
• Roberto Osuna, Astros ($6.5MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Osuna has been effective, but not exceptionally dominant. Having blown five saves, and not been ridden particularly hard by the Houston org, he has accumulated somewhat fewer saves (26) than might have been anticipated for one of the league’s winningest teams. Osuna is still on pace to out-earn every other pitcher on this list in total arbitration earnings, owing to his massive Super Two starting salary.
• Edwin Diaz, Mets ($607K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Though he is still racking up strikeouts, Diaz is also proving exceptionally homer-prone in New York. His 5.56 ERA is an unquestionable disappointment. Still, having already picked up 25 saves and with more yet to come, he is going to command a big first-time arb salary. It just won’t be nearly as much as it would have been had his platform year looked more like his 2018 effort.
• Alex Colome, White Sox ($7.325MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The 30-year-old has the saves total (23) and ERA (2.30) of an ace reliever, with the peripherals (7.7 K/9 vs. 3.6 BB/9; 4.53 SIERA, 4.59 xFIP) of a passable middle reliever. There’s an argument to be made that he shouldn’t be tendered, since it’s going to cost a pretty penny, though that seems rather unlikely given that the South Siders decided against trading him when they had the chance this summer.
• Shane Greene, Braves ($4MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Unfortunately, Greene blew his shot — his first one, anyway; we’ll see how things progress in Atlanta — at building up his saves tally after being dealt to the Braves. He has already accumulated 22, so he’ll be in line for a nice raise regardless. In his last arb experience, Greene earned a raise of just over $2MM by closing out 32 wins in 2018.
• Hector Neris, Phillies ($1.8MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): The Philadelphia closer is still building on his 21-save figure. He has also already accumulated 68 strikeouts this season.
• Taylor Rogers, Twins ($1.525MM current salary; entering 2nd of 4 seasons of eligibility): The extra year of arbitration afforded by Super Two status sure can pay off. Rogers has 18 saves, 68 strikeouts, and a 2.68 ERA through 53 2/3 innings. A big raise this year will further raise his base for two additional arb trips.
• Luke Jackson, Braves ($585K current salary; entering 1st of 3 seasons of eligibility): Few expected Jackson to remain on the Atlanta roster all year, let alone to accumulate 18 saves and 73 strikeouts to this point. He isn’t especially likely to pad his total down the stretch, having surrendered the job to a still-unsettled cast of incoming relievers, but Jackson ha set the stage regardless for a much-better-than-expected offseason payday.
• Ken Giles, Blue Jays ($6.3MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): The Toronto organization was never going to win a ton of games, so Giles was never likely to accumulate a huge number of saves. But he’s stuck on 16 owing to an unfortunate elbow issue that arose in the midst of an outstanding season (1.89 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 38 innings). If he had remained healthy and taken over the 9th for a contender, he’d have had much greater earning capacity. Fortunately for Giles, he has a high starting point to build from.
• Hansel Robles, Angels ($1.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Another unexpected save tallier, Robles has picked up 16 with more to come. He has established himself as a key cog in the Halos pen, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll hang onto the closer’s role for 2020.
• Blake Treinen, Athletics ($6.4MM current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): Treinen enjoyed a record-setting arb run last year but has regressed on the mound, working to a 4.74 ERA with just 8.4 K/9 against 5.7 BB/9 along with an uncharacteristically low 42.9% groundball rate. With 16 saves already logged, Treinen is going to command a not-unsubstantial raise on top of his already hefty salary. It’d be awfully tough to give up on a pitcher with his upside, particularly since he’s still pumping upper-nineties heat, but the tab seems steep for the A’s. If he’s not a non-tender candidate, Treinen will likely be batted around in offseason trade talks.
• Roenis Elias, Nationals ($910K current salary; entering 2nd to last season of eligibility): There’s no real chance that Elias will add to his sum of 14 saves, all accrued with the Mariners before he was dealt to D.C., but that’s still a nice feather in his cap. Elias can also hope to add some holds down the stretch, though he’ll have to work back from the injured list first.
• Liam Hendriks, Athletics ($2.15MM current salary; entering final season of eligibility): Since taking the reigns from Treinen, the breakout Aussie hurler has picked up 13 saves with more to come. While he’s not going to drive a huge raise with the save numbers alone, Hendriks is also pacing this list with a hefty 63 1/3 inning workload and has already recorded 88 strikeouts.

There was a well-documented run on contract extensions prior to this season, which bled into the current campaign in multiple instances. All told, 30 players inked multiyear pacts with their clubs between January and April. We highlighted five last week who’ve disappointed this year since landing their new deals. Now, here are six who have actually improved in 2019, thereby making their teams look that much better for locking them up…

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (six years, $120MM):

• There were many who believed Bogaerts left a good amount of money on the table last spring when he inked a long-term deal with the Red Sox a year before a potential trip to free agency. It was debatable then whether that was truly the case, but not anymore. The consistently terrific Bogaerts is now enjoying a career year at the age of 26. Bogaerts has totaled 5.5 fWAR on the strength of a .308/.384/.563 line (good for a 142 wRC+) through 539 plate appearances. With a personal-best 27 home runs, he’s a shoo-in for his first 30-HR campaign. It helps that Bogaerts has swung at fewer out-of-zone pitches than ever and walked at a career-best rate.

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves (eight years, $100MM):

• Thanks in part to what’s somehow a team-friendly nine-figure contract, the FanGraphs crew recently ranked Acuna as the player with the most trade value in baseball. Anyone care to argue? The 21-year-old may become the game’s latest 40/40 player this season, having amassed 34 home runs and 28 stolen bases over 562 trips to the plate. He has also slashed .298/.377/.539 (134 wRC+), posted nine Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating among all three outfield positions, and racked up 4.8 fWAR.

Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves (seven years, $35MM):

• The majority of observers regarded the Albies deal as an absolute steal for the Braves when he signed it. The 22-year-old hasn’t done anything to change minds since then, having batted .298/.353/.502 (117 wRC+) with 18 homers and 11 steals across 530 PA. Albies has added three DRS and a 1.3 UZR in the field, helping lead to a 3.4 fWAR a year after he logged 3.8. The switch-hitting Albies was clearly among the game’s best second basemen before landing his extension, and the contract has only made him more valuable from Atlanta’s perspective.

Max Kepler, OF, Twins (five years, $35MM):

• Back in May, the Kepler extension was one of two MLBTR’s Jeff Todd highlighted as a gem for the club. The 26-year-old Kepler was off to an impressive start to the season at that point, and he hasn’t let up. Kepler’s already up to 32 homers, 12 more than his previous high-water mark, in 501 PA. Overall, he has batted .258/.337/.536 (124 wRC+) with 3.7 fWAR. Unlike many hitters who’ve increased their power, Kepler’s excellence hasn’t come with more strikeouts. He has fanned in a meager 16 percent of plate appearances and drawn walks at an above-average 10.2 percent clip.

Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds (three years, $30.5MM):

• The Reds extended Gray immediately after acquiring the 29-year-old from the Yankees, with whom he struggled. Wise choice. Gray was mostly successful with the Yankees before an adverse year and a half in New York, and he has returned to his top form as a member of the Reds. He owns a stellar 2.98 ERA/3.40 FIP with 10.45 K/9 (easily a career-high amount), 3.39 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent groundball rate over 132 2/3 innings. The fact that Gray has reverted to being a front-of-the-rotation arm is a key reason why the Reds’ starting staff has taken massive steps forward this season.

Jorge Polanco, SS, Twins (five years, $25.75MM):

• Polanco’s extension was another brilliant preseason decision by the Twins, who’ve seen the 26-year-old hit .294/.357/.487 (118 wRC+) with 17 long balls and 3.3 fWAR since signing it. Polanco, like Kepler, has been rather difficult to strike out, having gone down in that manner in a mere 15.8 percent of PA.

The Reds have made a pair of claims already, nabbing Kevin Gausman from the Braves and Freddy Galvis from the Blue Jays. While the Cincinnati organization still hasn’t manage to make a run into clear postseason contention, it’s in shouting distance and obviously wants to send a message to its fanbase. With a marginal place in the standings, the Reds also have waiver priority over all other contenders. (Current rules do not distinguish between league status, except in cases where two teams with the same record each put in a claim.) The claims are relatively low-cost since there’s not much time left in the regular season (around $4MM in total) and both players can be controlled for 2020 (Gausman via arbitration, Galvis via club option). It’s also possible the Reds could pass along the contracts via the waiver wire later this month.

[RELATED: So, What Can Teams Do In August?]

It stands to reason that players in similar positions will be exposed to waivers as well. Those likeliest to hit the wire — beyond younger, fringe 40-man members — are arbitration-eligible players who are obvious non-tender candidates and impending free agents who no longer fit onto their current club. Gausman and Kyle Barraclough, whom the Giants recently claimed from the Nationals, represent recent examples of the first group. In such cases, teams stand to save a nice chunk of money if another team places a claim; if not, they only lose a player whose days in the organization were clearly numbered. Certain veterans on expiring contracts may also be allowed to leave, even if their non-contending current team would happily pay their salary down the stretch, in order to generate goodwill in pursuing future free agents. (That possibility explains why we’ve listed, say, Hunter Pence as a conceivable waiver candidate.)

It should be noted that players with guaranteed salaries beyond the 2019 season aren’t as likely to be waived in this manner. There’s little incentive for the Mariners to waive Dee Gordon, for instance. He’s owed more than $16MM and would surely go unclaimed as a result. At that point, he’d reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, leaving the Mariners on the hook for the entirety of his contract. At best, Seattle would save the prorated league minimum if Gordon signed with another team. It makes more sense to hold him and try to move him in the offseason or even next year.

There ought to be demand on the claiming side. Plenty of needs remain unmet even on competitive rosters. It’s notable that the Nats and Braves saved money with their above-cited waiver placements; that could leave some addition free cash to utilize in adding other players. Some clear non-contenders will even work the wire, as the Blue Jays did with Zack Godley. It would seem there’s nothing to stop teams from discussing their intentions in advance — “hey, we’d claim him if you cut him loose” — to assuage any concerns about a player going unclaimed, which could perhaps even open the door to a surprising late-month claim or two.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look around the league to see which other players could land on waivers, focusing on contract status and other factors. Rebuilding and/or clearly non-contending clubs will obviously be contemplating ways to save some cash with moves of this nature. Some players on contending teams may be candidates to be cut loose regardless of their organization’s place in the standings — hence, the prior moves on Gausman and Barraclough — but we’ll focus here on organizations with sub-.500 records.

Just because a player lands on the list doesn’t mean we think it’s especially likely he’ll move by way of waivers; it just indicates we can see a path to such an outcome. Without further ado (teams listed by inverse order of record):

Tigers: Jordy Mercer, Gordon Beckham, Edwin Jackson

Orioles: Jace Peterson, Jonathan Villar

Royals: Billy Hamilton, Mike Montgomery

Marlins: Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, Martin Prado, Adam Conley

Mariners: Cory Gearrin, Anthony Bass

Blue Jays: Zack Godley, Neil Ramirez, Justin Smoak

Pirates: Francisco Liriano, Melky Cabrera

Rockies: Chris Iannetta (DFA limbo), Chad Bettis

White Sox: Ivan Nova, Welington Castillo, Jon Jay, Yolmer Sanchez

Padres: Craig Stammen, Ian Kinsler

Reds: Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Jared Hughes

Angels: Justin Bour, Trevor Cahill

Rangers: Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe, Delino DeShields, Shawn Kelley, David Carpenter

Additional Possibilities: Adeiny Hechavarria (Mets; DFA limbo), Addison Russell (Cubs), Travis Shaw (Brewers), Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Wacha (Cardinals)

(It’s possible that the win/loss outcomes over the next two weeks will push some other organizations to consider dropping short-term veterans, but we won’t guess here as to how that’ll shake out. The players on contending teams just listed could be pushed out due to performance/roster considerations, regardless of their teams’ place in the standings.)