MLBTR Originals

Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 18, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.

In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.

There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.

Onto this year’s group!

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining

Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)

Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)

Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)

Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)

Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)

Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining

Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.

Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining

Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.

Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining

Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.

A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining

Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.

Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining

Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining

The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.

Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)

Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.

Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)

Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining

It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.

Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining

Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.

Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL West

By Anthony Franco | April 18, 2025 at 9:10pm CDT

Over the coming days, MLBTR will look at next offseason’s option class. Steve Adams highlighted the players who can opt out of their current deals, while we’ll take a division-by-division look at those whose contracts contain either team or mutual options. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

We started with a look at the NL West yesterday. While every team in that division had at least one player whose deal contained a club or mutual option, its American League counterpart only has two teams that are slated to have any option decisions.

Athletics

None

Houston Astros

None

Los Angeles Angels

Kevin Newman, SS ($2.5MM club option, $250K buyout)

The Angels brought in Newman on a $2.75MM contract early last offseason. The contact-hitting infielder was coming off a solid .278/.311/.375 slash over 111 games in a utility role in Arizona. He added necessary shortstop depth with Zach Neto opening the season on the injured list after last fall’s shoulder surgery. Newman had a rough Spring Training, though, and the Angels went with minor league signee Tim Anderson as their primary shortstop until Neto’s return tonight.

Newman’s cold spring has carried into his early regular season work. He has managed three hits, all singles, without taking a walk in 23 trips to the plate. Newman has never walked much or hit for any kind of power, but he generally puts the ball in play and can move around the infield. Neto’s return means he won’t get much playing time at shortstop, while Kyren Paris and Luis Rengifo are respectively getting the majority of work at second and third base.

Note: José Quijada and Evan White each have club options on their respective contracts. They’ve both been outrighted off the 40-man roster and are very likely to be bought out. If they’re added back to the 40-man, the Angels would control both players via arbitration even if they decline the options.

Seattle Mariners

Mitch Garver, DH ($12MM mutual option, $2MM buyout)

Garver’s two-year, $24MM contract remains the only multi-year deal that the Mariners have awarded to a free agent hitter under Jerry Dipoto’s leadership. It hasn’t gone well. While Garver’s injury history made that a somewhat risky investment, he looked like a good bet to hit whenever he was on the field. Garver was coming off a .270/.370/.500 showing for the Rangers during their World Series season, and he brought a career .252/.342/.483 batting line to T-Mobile Park.

The 34-year-old’s production tanked almost immediately. He managed a career-high 430 plate appearances last season, but it came with easily his worst rate stats in a full season. Garver hit .172/.286/.341 while striking out at a 31% rate. It wasn’t simply a product of Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park. His .186/.290/.324 line on the road wasn’t any better than his .153/.281/.363 showing at home. He doesn’t look to be on the verge of a rebound. Garver has begun this season with four singles, six walks, and zero extra-base hits across 34 trips to the plate.

Andrés Muñoz, RHP ($6MM club option)

The Mariners worked out an extension with the hard-throwing Muñoz during the 2021-22 offseason. He’d made all of one appearance in a Seattle uniform at the time. Muñoz had undergone Tommy John surgery while a member of the Padres in 2020. Seattle acquired him early in the rehab process. They believed he’d blossom into a late-game weapon. They were right.

Muñoz has rattled off three straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons since signing his extension. He has begun this year with 10 scoreless innings, recording 13 strikeouts with an AL-leading seven saves. He carries a 2.35 earned run average with a huge 34.7% strikeout rate over 184 frames in a Seattle uniform. This has quickly become one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

The option is essentially a lock unless he suffers a significant injury that’d cost him all of next season. The team has respective $8MM and $10MM options for 2027 and ’28, so they could keep him at below-market rates for three years. Next season’s option has a $6MM base value. It’d climb by $250K apiece if Muñoz finishes 20, 30, 40 and 45 games this year. He’s already at eight games finished and should get to 45 by season’s end. The option price will probably end up at $7MM, but it’s an easy call for the front office.

Jorge Polanco, 3B ($8MM mutual option, $750K buyout)

Polanco’s option begins as an $8MM mutual provision, but he can convert it to a player option if he hits a vesting threshold. If he reaches 450 plate appearances this season and avoids a lower half injury that’d require him to begin next season on the injured list — which is protection for the team given his recent knee concerns — it’d become a $6MM player option. Getting to 550 plate appearances this year would push the player option price to $8MM.

If Polanco does not hit the vesting threshold, it’d remain an $8MM mutual option with a $750K buyout. He has been dinged up by knee and side discomfort that has limited him but not prevented him from playing. The switch-hitting Polanco is currently unable to play the infield or hit right-handed in games. He’s a lefty-swinging designated hitter for now. Yet he’s been on such a tear that the Mariners will happily live with the limitations.

Polanco has connected on three homers and a pair of doubles through 13 games. He’s hitting .378. That not only leads the team but ranks sixth in the majors among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances. He’s obviously not going to keep up this pace, but Polanco was fairly consistently an above-average hitter during his run as Minnesota’s second baseman. The Mariners felt that last year’s career-worst production was attributable to the knee injury through which he played a good chunk of the season. Polanco has done his best to prove that right so far.

Texas Rangers

None

Poll: Can The Giants Sustain Their Hot Start?

By Nick Deeds | April 18, 2025 at 8:33pm CDT

When the Giants completed their 19th game of the 2021 season four years ago, they were 12-7, two games behind the reigning World Series champion Dodgers for the NL West lead. After four straight seasons with losing records, few expected a Giants club that was largely unchanged from the year prior to find any sort of success even after their solid start to the season. Even fewer expected what would actually come to pass, as San Francisco improbably went on to win 107 games and squeak out a division title over L.A. by just one game.

Flash forward to this year, and the Giants are 13-6 after their 19th game of the season and even closer to the once again reigning World Series champion Dodgers in the standings, sitting just half a game back. For fans in San Francisco who were jaded by the three seasons of mediocrity since that magical 2021 campaign, the Giants’ start has been a huge breath of fresh air. Scorching hot starts from outfielders Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski have helped carry the offense to the third-highest total of runs scored in the majors entering play today. Logan Webb has continued to play his part as a perennial candidate for the Cy Young award. The bullpen’s sterling 1.89 ERA is the second-best figure in all of baseball.

Those are encouraging signs, and there’s an argument that the team figures to get better in some areas. Willy Adames hasn’t begun to hit yet after signing the largest contract in franchise history. LaMonte Wade Jr. certainly won’t hit .102 all year, and even if he did continue to flounder, top prospect Bryce Eldridge could eventually be called upon to fill his shoes at first base. The rotation’s lackluster ERA (4.80) is nearly a full run higher than its FIP (3.90) and SIERA (4.00); Justin Verlander and Jordan Hicks almost certainly won’t continue running ERAs north of 6.00.

Projection systems have begun to generally buy into San Francisco’s hot start. FanGraphs gives the Giants a 51.3% chance to make the postseason with a projected record of 86-76, a massive step forward from their preseason projections (81-81, 28.5% postseason chance).

That’s not to say there are no potential red flags, of course. The rotation has looked rough outside of Webb. The rest of the group figures to bounce back from rough starts to at least some extent, but Robbie Ray’s velocity is at its second-lowest mark ever and he’s walking nearly 18% of his opponents. Could this version of Ray, a 42-year-old Verlander or Hicks serve as a credible No. 2 starter for a playoff team? That could be asking a lot. Meanwhile, the bullpen is currently outperforming both its FIP and SIERA by nearly a run and a half.

The biggest obstacle for the Giants if they want to maintain their current success, however, is the landscape of the NL West. Their excellent 13-6 record is good for only third place in the division and just one game ahead of the fourth-place D-backs (who’d won five straight and seven of their past eight). Arizona, San Diego, and especially L.A. entered the season not just as projected contenders, but potentially dominant clubs. Their own starts to the season have done little to change those expectations, and while the Giants have pulled off some impressive series wins against clubs like the Yankees and Astros, they’ve yet to play a single game against their own division.

Their first big test in that regard will be a two-game set against the Padres at the end of the month. The Giants will be in Arizona for the first time about a month from now, and they won’t face the Dodgers until mid-June. Perhaps being able to save difficult matchups against division rivals for later in the season will allow the Giants to build enough of a cushion to sustain themselves through the trade deadline, when they can add reinforcements. A stretch of 13 straight games against the D-backs and Dodgers in mid-September presents a potentially formidable roadblock late in the season.

How sustainable do MLBTR readers believe San Francisco’s hot start to be? Will they be able to exceed preseason expectations that they’d finish around .500, or perhaps even make it to October? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: When Should The Marlins Trade Sandy Alcantara?

By Nick Deeds | April 17, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

While this year’s trade deadline is still more than three months away, there’s perhaps no more obvious trade candidate in the game right now than Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young award winner, Alcantara missed last season due to Tommy John surgery but is back in action with Miami this year. While he was out of commission, the Marlins tore the roster that made the playoffs in 2023 down to the studs, trading everyone from Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. With no end in sight to the rebuild and Alcantara controlled through the 2027 season, it would be a complete shock if the Marlins held onto him until his contract came to a close.

Whenever the Marlins trade Alcantara, he’s sure to be an extremely sought-after commodity. The right-hander’s 4.70 ERA in three starts this year is far from impressive, but his peripherals have looked better. He’s generating grounders at a phenomenal 65.1% clip with a 3.86 FIP and a 3.91 xERA despite his lackluster 19% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate. Those strikeout and walk figures will become concerning if they hold up over a larger sample size, but unless that comes to pass, it seems fair to expect the righty to return to his previous dominant form. Since his full-season debut in 2019, Alcantara has posted a 3.33 ERA with a 3.71 FIP, a 51% grounder rate, and a 21.4% strikeout rate against a 7.1% walk rate.

Those numbers don’t hold a candle to his Cy Young season, where he posted a 2.28 ERA and 2.80 FIP in a campaign that led MLB with 8.0 bWAR, but it’s still clearly front-of-the-rotation caliber production overall. Perhaps even more enticing to teams than Alcantara’s rate production is his status as a true workhorse in a game where arms capable of pitching deep into games on a regular basis have become vanishingly rare. Alcantara hasn’t posted less than 184 2/3 innings in any of his four full seasons, and his 858 1/3 innings of work from 2019 to 2023 were second only to Gerrit Cole. That sort of volume would have value even if Alcantara was a league-average pitcher, given the increasing difficulty with which teams are forced to piece together their rotations.

He’s also appealing from a financial point of view. He is making $17MM this year and next year, less than half of what some other ace pitchers get. Then there’s a $2MM buyout on a $21MM club option for 2027.

Given his ace-level upside, workhorse reputation, years of control, and affordable contract, Alcantara’s status as one of the most valuable trade chips in the sport is unlikely to change. That gives the Marlins the ability to stay flexible with their plans regarding the prized righty. Reporters Will Sammon of The Athletic and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald have suggested that the Marlins have not yet decided if they’ll trade Alcantara at all this season. Alcantara himself tells Jackson that he wants to stay in Miami but is aware that he has no say in the matter. “I’m [just] a player,” he said. “If they want to trade me for a bag, they can trade me.” While the righty eventually getting moved appears to be something of a fait accompli, the Fish would still have two full seasons of team control to market if they opted to move him this offseason instead.

Of course, teams will likely be willing to pay a higher premium for Alcantara at the deadline, when they’d have him available for three pennant races and he wouldn’t be competing with a free agent market rich in rotation talent like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez. Unless the 8-10 Marlins are able to make a surprise surge into contention for an NL Wild Card spot this summer or Alcantara’s performance declines enough that lucrative trade offers start to dry up, it’s hard to see the club getting more value out of their star by waiting for the offseason. With that said, another year of information regarding their prospects and young players could allow them to make more informed decisions about which areas of the roster to target improvements for in the return package.

Could the Marlins benefit from moving Alcantara even earlier, as they did with Arraez last May? Such a decision wouldn’t give Alcantara much of an opportunity to prove he’s healthy and back to his usual form, but the extra few months of starts could be very attractive to clubs like the Yankees, Cubs, and Padres that are dealing with injury woes in their rotation already. What’s more, it’s not impossible to imagine a team like the Astros (Valdez), Twins (Pablo Lopez), or Royals (Seth Lugo) that is currently attempting to compete winding up on the outside of the playoff picture come July and marketing their own top starters. That would give potential suitors for Alcantara alternative options they surely wouldn’t have available to them this early in the calendar.

When do MLBTR readers think the Marlins should start trying to trade Alcantara? Would jumping the market and opening up the bidding now allow them to maximize their asset, should they wait to see if Alcantara can re-establish himself more before putting him on the market this summer, or could waiting even longer to deal him this offseason be the best course to take? Have your say in the poll below:

Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL West

By Anthony Franco | April 17, 2025 at 8:22pm CDT

Over the coming days, MLBTR will look at next offseason’s option class. Steve Adams will highlight the players who can opt out of their current deals, while we’ll take a division-by-division look at those whose contracts contain either team or mutual options. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Kendall Graveman, RHP ($5MM mutual option, $100K buyout)

Arizona signed the veteran righty, who missed all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery in January 2024. Graveman was hobbled by back discomfort this spring and began the year on the 15-day injured list. He has thrown a few bullpen sessions but has yet to begin a rehab assignment. During his most recent healthy season, Graveman worked to a 3.12 ERA across 66 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Astros.

Randal Grichuk, OF ($5MM mutual option, $3MM buyout)

Grichuk posted big numbers in a short-side platoon role for the Snakes in 2024. Arizona brought him back on a $5MM free agent deal. He’s making only a $2MM salary and will collect a $3MM buyout on his option at the end of the season. Grichuk hasn’t gotten much playing time, starting six of Arizona’s 19 games (all but one as the designated hitter). He’s out to a decent start, batting .240 with five doubles over 28 plate appearances.

Colorado Rockies

Kyle Farmer, 2B ($4MM mutual option, $750K buyout)

Farmer has been a rare bright spot in what has been a terrible Colorado lineup. The veteran utilityman has started 15 of their 18 games. He’s playing mostly second base and is hitting .345 with nine doubles, the second-most in MLB. Farmer isn’t going to keep hitting at this pace, but it’s an excellent start for a player who signed for $3.25MM after a down year (.214/.293/.353) with Minnesota.

Tyler Kinley, RHP ($5MM club option, $750K buyout)

Kinley signed a three-year extension during the 2022-23 offseason. The slider specialist had a brilliant first half to the ’22 campaign, but that was cut short in July by elbow surgery. Kinley hasn’t been the same pitcher since returning. He allowed more than six earned runs per nine in both 2022 and ’23. He has given up five runs (four earned) with seven strikeouts and six walks across 7 2/3 innings this season. Kinley owns a 6.03 ERA while walking more than 11% of opposing hitters over 88 frames since signing the extension.

The option comes with a $5MM base value. It would escalate by $500K apiece if Kinley finishes 20, 25, and 30 games — potentially up to $6.5MM. He has finished two contests in the early going. While the option isn’t especially costly, this is trending towards a buyout.

Jacob Stallings, C ($2MM mutual option, $500K buyout)

Stallings produced the best offensive numbers of his career for the Rox in 2024. He returned on a $2.5MM deal early in the offseason. Stallings has been more of the 1-b catcher behind Hunter Goodman. He has started seven games and caught 59 innings. It’s been a slow start, as he’s batting .125 with 12 strikeouts in 27 trips to the plate.

Note: Thairo Estrada’s one-year deal contains a ’26 mutual option, but he’s excluded from this exercise because he would remain eligible for arbitration if the option is declined.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Max Muncy, 3B ($10MM club option, no buyout)

This could end up being a borderline call. The Dodgers can keep Muncy around for what’d be his ninth season in L.A. on a $10MM price tag. That’s not an exorbitant sum for baseball’s highest-spending team. Muncy has generally been an excellent hitter in the middle of Dave Roberts’ lineup. He’s a career .230/.355/.482 hitter in Dodger blue. He remained as productive when he was healthy last season, posting a .232/.358/.494 slash over 73 games. An oblique strain cost him three months.

Muncy is out to a much slower start this year. He has yet to connect on a home run in 18 games. He’s batting .193 with 25 strikeouts in 68 plate appearances (a 36.8% rate). It’s very early, of course, but he’ll need to pick things up. Muncy turns 35 in August. NPB third baseman Munetaka Murakami will be posted for MLB teams next offseason. The Dodgers will very likely be involved on the 25-year-old slugger, so it’s possible they’d prefer to keep the position open early in the winter.

Chris Taylor, INF/OF ($12MM club option, $4MM buyout)

Taylor is in the final season of his four-year, $60MM free agent deal. He was coming off an All-Star season in 2021, when he hit .254/.344/.438 with 20 homers. His offense has trended down over the course of the contract, especially sharply over the past two years. Taylor fanned at a near-31% clip last season, batting .202/.298/.300 in 246 plate appearances. He has only been in the starting lineup three times this season.

The Dodgers have kept Taylor throughout his offensive struggles. They clearly place a lot of value on him as a clubhouse presence and appreciate the defensive versatility he provides off the bench. Still, it’s hard to imagine them paying the extra $8MM to exercise the option since he’s essentially the final position player on the roster. The option price would increase by $1MM if Taylor is traded or in the unlikely event that he reaches 525 plate appearances and/or makes the All-Star Game.

Note: Alex Vesia’s arbitration contract contains a ’26 club option, but he’s excluded from this exercise because he would remain eligible for arbitration if the option is declined.

San Diego Padres

Elias Díaz, C ($7MM mutual option, $2MM buyout)

Díaz finished last season in San Diego after being released by the Rockies. He re-signed on a $3.5MM deal as the Padres went with the affordable veteran catching tandem of Díaz and Martín Maldonado. He’s hitting .206 in 13 games, though he has taken seven walks against eight strikeouts.

Kyle Hart, LHP ($5MM club option, $500K buyout)

Hart, a soft-tossing lefty, returned to the majors after an excellent year in Korea. He signed a $1.5MM guarantee with a ’26 team option that has a $5MM base salary. The option price could climb as high as $7.5MM. It would jump $250K if Hart reaches 18 starts this year, $500K at 22 starts, $750K at 26 starts, and $1MM if he starts 30 games.

San Diego has given Hart a season-opening rotation spot. He has allowed seven runs over his first 11 2/3 innings. Hart has walked five with eight strikeouts and a below-average 8.3% swinging strike percentage.

Michael King, RHP ($15MM mutual option, $3.75MM buyout)

King’s option is purely an accounting measure. He agreed to push $3.75MM of this year’s $7.75MM guarantee back to the end of the season in the form of a buyout — potentially buying the Padres a bit of flexibility for in-season trade acquisitions. Barring a major injury, he’s going to decline his end of the option and will be one of the top pitchers in next year’s class.

Tyler Wade, SS/OF ($1MM club option, no buyout)

Wade agreed to a $1MM club option as part of a deal to avoid a hearing in his final year of arbitration. He was squeezed off the roster during Spring Training. Wade cleared waivers, accepted an assignment to Triple-A, then came back up last week. He’s playing center field with Jackson Merrill and Brandon Lockridge on the injured list. The option price is barely above the league minimum, but Wade is on the roster bubble and no guarantee to stick in the majors through the end of the season.

San Francisco Giants

Tom Murphy, C ($4MM club option, $250K buyout)

San Francisco added Murphy on a two-year deal during the 2023-24 offseason. The veteran catcher has had a difficult time staying healthy throughout his career, and that’s continued in San Francisco. He played in only 13 games last year because of a knee sprain. He started this season on the shelf with a herniated disc that is going to keep him out for at least the first two months. This looks like a buyout.

Luis Robert’s Slow Start

By Anthony Franco | April 16, 2025 at 11:57pm CDT

April tends to be relatively quiet on the transaction front. The early part of the month saw a handful of extensions as talks that had begun in Spring Training carried into the regular season. There probably won't be much more significant hot stove activity for the next couple months. That's largely because all but three teams -- the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies -- went into the season with some measure of hope about competing. The trio of clearly noncompetitive clubs had already moved most of their realistic trade candidates who'd bring back prospect talent.

Luis Robert Jr. is an exception. The White Sox held onto their former All-Star center fielder over the offseason. Robert was coming off the worst season of his career. He lost nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Robert looked nothing like the player who'd finished 12th in AL MVP balloting one year earlier.

It made for a difficult evaluation. Robert has shown star upside -- not only in the aforementioned 2023 campaign but in an injury-shortened '21 season when he hit .338/.378/.567 over 68 games. Last year's White Sox were en route to the worst season in the modern era. Maybe Robert's .216/.253/.302 showing in the second half reflected some amount of mental fatigue. At 27 years old, he should remain in his prime.

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2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 14, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

The 2025 season is well underway, which for most baseball fans means there’s five-plus months of highlights, daily transactions, trade deadline drama, postseason races and an eventual World Series all still to come. That’s true for us at MLBTR as well, but we’re nothing if not offseason enthusiasts (or, put another way, sickos) — so this also presents a good opportunity to take a look ahead to the upcoming 2025-26 class of MLB free agents. Myself, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald and MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes (the aforementioned sickos) consulted with each other to form these rankings.

The top name long expected to headline the 202526 market actually won’t be on the market at all. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. already put pen to paper on a historic $500MM extension that will keep him in Toronto for an additional 14 seasons, from 2026-39. That might remove some of the drama from the top of next year’s class, but it’s nevertheless a star-studded group that could feature one of the ten or even five largest contracts in MLB history, depending on how the 2025 season plays out. There will also be at least one very high-profile star posted from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, plus a pair of frequent Cy Young contenders and several other marquee names who have the ability to opt out of their current contracts.

As a reminder for longtime readers or an explanation for newcomers to MLBTR, our rankings are not necessarily a ranking of who the “best” players are in free agency. Rather, we sort our lists by perceived earning power. For instance, no matter how good a season 42-year-old Justin Verlander has, he’s not likely to rank ahead of a 30-year-old mid-rotation starter on our list, because the younger pitcher will be able to secure a larger guarantee on a long-term pact that won’t be available to a future Hall of Famer in the twilight of his career. Kirby Yates could have the best season of any reliever in MLB — but as someone who’ll be 39 in 2026, he won’t place all that highly because the length of his contract will be capped by his age.

As Guerrero and Juan Soto have recently proven, age is king when it comes to earning power. Major league front offices and owners will shell out for players in their mid-20s in a way they simply won’t for someone who reaches free agency at the more typical 30 or 31 years old. Teams want to be buying prime years, and while there are rare exceptions like Aaron Judge, most free agents who hit the market after already having turned 30 (and certainly after having turned 31) are viewed relatively tepidly — even coming off big seasons.

We’re quite early in the process right now, so this list will change as the year progresses. We’ll have multiple updates to our rankings over the course of the season, as injuries, breakouts and/or poor performances from potential top free agents impact the calculus. Note that players with club options are not included, but players with player options/opt-outs are included. Any player with a club option is going to have that option exercised if he plays well enough to otherwise be considered for this list.

With all of that in mind, let’s dive into the list.

1. Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs

The Cubs traded a significant package of young talent for the final year of control over Tucker, shipping infielder Isaac Paredes, young starter Hayden Wesneski and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith to the Astros in that headline-grabbing December swap. By all accounts, it was a weighty return for Houston even at the time — and that looks all the more true following the improbable scenario that saw all three of Paredes, Wesneski and — incredibly — Smith break camp with the team.

Chicago had good reason to pay a steep price. Tucker may not draw as much national fanfare as longtime teammates like Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, but when he’s healthy he’s among the best all-around players on the planet. The understated Tucker was selected just three picks after Bregman in 2016, going to Houston fifth overall. Like so much of the now-departed Astros core, he was a top prospect who graduated to the majors at a young age (21). It took a couple years for Tucker to truly cement himself in the Houston lineup, but he never looked back following a breakout in the shortened 2020 season.

From the time of a September call-up in 2019 through 2023, Tucker was consistently excellent. His “worst” full season in that time saw him deliver offense that was 22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His cumulative batting line of .277/.349/.517 checked in 36% better than par. Tucker continually bolstered his walk rate while reducing his strikeouts, hitting for power and chipping in quality baserunning and plus corner defense along the way.

Tucker was already a star heading into 2024, but he broke out as a full-fledged MVP candidate in a half-season’s worth of games last year. A fracture in his shin limited him to only 78 games, but when he was on the field, Tucker delivered a preposterous .289/.408/.585 batting line with 23 homers in just 338 turns at the plate. He walked in a career-best 16.5% of his plate appearances and fanned at a career-low 15.9% clip. He continued posting elite batted-ball metrics. Simply put, there were no holes in Tucker’s game — other than that untimely injury that truncated his sensational showing.

Cubs fans fretted this spring when Tucker struggled and Smith lit up Cactus League pitching, but now that the regular season is underway, the roles have reversed. Tucker looks as good as he ever has, while Smith looks very much like a 22-year-old who was rushed to the majors after just 32 minor league games. That’s not to say Smith’s future isn’t overwhelmingly bright, but as is often the case, spring narratives tend to look like a distant memory in a hurry.

Tucker is slashing a comical .324/.442/.648. He’s improved in nearly every season of his career and now stands as a 28-year-old MVP candidate with plus-plus offense, plus right field defense and deceptive baserunning acumen. Statcast only credits Tucker with 33rd percentile sprint speed, but he had an identical percentile ranking in 2023 when he nevertheless swiped 30 bases in 35 tries. He’s 97-for-110 in career stolen base attempts — a massive 88.1% success rate that proves you don’t have to be a burner to be excellent on the bases.

The icing on the cake for Tucker is that he won’t turn 29 until next January. He’ll play all of 2026 at that age. Most of the other bats on the market will be entering their age-30 seasons or later. Tucker is selling an extra year of his prime, and that will reward him handsomely. If he can sustain his 2024 pace over a full season, he could sign the fourth $400MM+ contract in major league history next winter, and at the very least, he’ll be in position to surpass Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM deal in Los Angeles. Tucker will receive and reject a qualifying offer, but he’s so clearly above the rest of the class that said QO will be a non-factor in his market.

2. Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres

Among the starting pitchers on this list, Cease boasts the best combination of youth, stuff and track record. His season clearly hasn’t started as hoped, though his 7.98 ERA is attributable to one bludgeoning at the hands of the A’s, who tagged him for nine runs. Cease has had relatively uneven results on a year-to-year basis, but he’s been baseball’s most durable starter since 2020 and the collective body of work is excellent. No one in MLB has topped Cease’s 145 starts since Opening Day 2020, and he sports a combined 3.64 ERA along the way.

That earned run average is good, not great, but it’s skewed by a 2023 season in which Cease was tagged for a 4.58 ERA despite running his typically excellent strikeout numbers. Playing in front of a terrible White Sox defense that year, Cease was tagged for a career-worst .330 average on balls in play, which contributed to a career-worst 69.4% strand rate. It wasn’t all bad luck, as Cease also surrendered the most hard contact of his career, but metrics like FIP (3.72) and SIERA (4.10) thought he was quite misfortunate all the same.

On the other side of the spectrum, Cease’s 2022 season was utterly dominant. He finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting on the back of a pristine 2.20 ERA with a massive 30.4% strikeout rate. At his best, Cease is an ace-caliber arm whose arsenal is headlined by a sharp bat-missing slider in the 88 mph range and a plus four-seamer that sits 96-97 mph annually. Cease will also mix in a knuckle curve and a changeup, but those are more show-me offerings complementing his dominant one-two heater/slider punch.

Cease is the youngest pitcher on these rankings, albeit only by a matter of a couple months in one case. He’ll pitch all of the 2026 season at 30 years old, however, meaning a seven-year deal would “only” run through his age-36 season. Eight years would take him through age-37. That’s the point at which most free agent mega-contracts for pitchers halt, though Max Fried notably signed through his age-38 season with the Yankees (an atypical stopping point, though arguably he received six- or seven-year money spread across eight seasons for luxury purposes).

With a strong season, Cease will have the best shot at cracking $200MM of any pitcher on this list. He should command at least six years, with a good chance at seven and an outside possibility of eight. If he’s not traded, he’ll receive and reject a QO, which should have little (if any) impact on his market.

3. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays

Bichette’s 2024 season was a mess. He struggled through the season’s first two-plus months before a pair of summer calf strains landed him on the shelf — first for three weeks and then, a second time, for nearly two months. He returned for one game in September, suffered a broken finger in a freak accident during fielding drills, and required season-ending surgery. The end result? A 78-game season in which he hit just .225/.277/.322. Woof.

So far in 2025, Bichette is doing his best to put that injury-wrecked season behind him. He surprisingly hasn’t homered yet, but the 27-year-old is slashing .314/.364/.386 and absolutely stinging the ball. Bichette’s huge 52.5% hard-hit rate would be a career-best. His 91.7 mph average exit velocity and 9.8% barrel rate would be the second-best marks in his excellent young career. Bichette may not be hitting for power yet, but he’s blistering the ball and elevating it at career-high levels. His 41% grounder rate is a career low, and a comical 34.4% of his batted balls have been line drives. A 13% strikeout rate and 84.3% contact rate (95.1% in the zone) are career-best marks.

Any player seeing the ball this well and hitting the ball so authoritatively is going to see the power come around eventually. Statcast credits Bichette with an “expected” .365 average and .601 slugging percentage. Those numbers won’t hold over a full season, but Bichette is showing plenty of strong indicators that he’s playing at a level much closer to his 2019-23 form (.299/.340/.487, 126 wRC+) than his 2024 form.

Defense will continue to be a question mark. Bichette has never graded as a particularly strong shortstop, and he doesn’t display the sort of plus arm you’d see from someone who could seamlessly slide over to third base. He’d certainly have the range and hands for the position, but throwing-wise, it may not be an ideal fit.

That’ll be a point to consider for any club, but most will view Bichette as a young free agent who can handle shortstop for at least the first few seasons of his next contract. He may not be a plus defender, but he’s also not presently a liability who requires an immediate shift to another spot on the diamond. And, with Bichette playing the entire 2025 season at just 27 years old, he’s a much, much younger bat than any other prominent free agent this winter.

If Bichette’s early positive signs at the plate ultimately yield a rebound to his prior form, that age and production from a shortstop-capable middle infielder will likely push him north of $200MM. Even if he has only a partial rebound at the plate, his age, position and offensive upside should land him in the $140-175MM range we saw with other shortstops on the right side of 30 (Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Dansby Swanson).

4. Munetaka Murakami, 1B/3B, NPB (Yakult)

Some readers might be surprised to see Murakami’s name this high. Some may not be familiar with him at all. The 25-year-old slugger has been a star for Japan’s Yakult Swallows since he debuted at age 18, but he hasn’t necessarily garnered the international fanfare of countrymen Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani — at least not yet.

That’ll likely change this year, so long as he remains a highly productive slugger. Murakami’s three-year deal with Yakult reportedly stipulates that he be posted following the 2025 campaign. He turned 25 just over two months ago, meaning that under MLB’s international free agent system, he’ll now be considered a professional who can sign with any team for any amount.

As previously mentioned, age is king in free agency. But if there’s a co-ruler, so to speak, it’s power and/or perceived upside. Murakami offers both in spades. The third baseman’s peak season came in 2022, when he posted a Herculean .318/.458/.711 batting line with a colossal 56 home runs and nearly as many walks (19.3%) as strikeouts (20.9%). He hasn’t replicated that absurd stat line since, and he’s become more strikeout prone in the two subsequent seasons. That includes a career-worst 29.8% rate in 2024.

Be that as it may, Murakami has been no worse than 53% better than average at the plate in Japan in each season dating back to 2020. Even as his offense “declined” in 2023-24, he popped 31 and 33 homers, respectively. Even if his 2022 season is an outlier, he’s slashed .250/.377/.486 with 64 homers during his age-23 and age-24 campaigns.

Murakami has been a third baseman in Japan, but the general expectation is that he’ll need to move to first base at some point down the road. Back in 2023, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser rated Murakami as the No. 3 prospect in that year’s World Baseball Classic, trailing only Sasaki and Yamamoto. Glaser wrote that he can hit both high-velocity fastballs and quality breaking pitches while showing power to all fields. Listed at 6’2″ and 213 pounds, he’s credited with plenty of arm for third base but more limited range that could eventually force him across the diamond.

FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen has differing opinions in an updated report that’s reflective of Murakami’s 2023-24 downturn at the plate. Longenhagen points out that Murakami has hit just .154 on fastballs topping 93 mph in recent years but has outstanding recognition of breaking balls and “titanic pole-to-pole power.” He also credits him with enough improvements to stick at third base, even if he doesn’t project as a plus defender there.

Clearly, there are potential areas for improvement. But this list is based on earning potential, and if Murakami can cut improve his recent struggles against velocity, cut down on strikeouts and/or return to his 2022 level of power output, the defensive gains he’s made and his extreme youth could make him the most coveted non-Tucker player on this list. There’s a broad range of outcomes with Murakami, more so than any player on this list, but if everything clicks it’s feasible that he could sign one of the largest contracts of any player to make the jump from NPB to MLB. His performance will be well worth keeping an eye on. He’s already a two-time Nippon Professional Baseball MVP. Age and track record alone make him a candidate for a nine-figure deal, and a big enough performance could see him push for $200MM+ or even $300MM+, following in Yamamoto’s footsteps.

5. Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox

The mega-contract Bregman sought wasn’t quite there in free agency this past offseason. He reportedly received offers worth $156MM and $172MM from Houston and Detroit, respectively, before (by Bregman’s own telling) the Red Sox stepped up late with a hearty $40MM AAV on an opt-out-laden contract of three years. Heavy deferrals knock the net-present AAV down below $30MM, but Bregman opted for the short-term pact in hopes that a different market, a more steady performance than his uneven 2024 output, and a lack of a qualifying offer would bring him more compelling offers next winter. The $172MM offer from the Tigers reportedly deferred $40MM as well, though it’s unclear how far into the future that money would have been pushed and how the net present value would have been impacted.

So far, Bregman is out to a fine start, slashing .290/.342/.464 with a pair of homers in 76 plate appearances. Some of the same red flags that applied to his slow start last year are present again, however. His 5.3% walk rate is a career-low and nowhere near the 13.8% he posted from 2018-23. After his walk rate plummeted to 6.9% last year, it’d be more encouraging to see him showing a more disciplined approach. Bregman’s 21.1% strikeout rate would also be a career-worst over a full season. He has plenty of time to whittle that down, and a paltry 4.3% swinging-strike rate and career-high 88.9% contact rate suggest that might just be some small-sample smoke. From 2018-24, Bregman fanned in only 12.5% of his plate appearances.

Those superlative contact skills play a large role in Bregman’s overall appeal. At his best, he sported a plus walk rate and elite contact skills with good defense at third base and plenty of power. Detractors often point to the short left field porch from which Bregman benefited during his Houston days, but he was every bit as productive and powerful on the road as he was at the now-former Minute Maid Park (which was renamed to Daikin Park in 2025).

Bregman and the Boras Corporation can and likely will point to anything north of $160MM next offseason combining with year one in Boston to earn a net sum topping $200MM for his free agent years. That type of offer was present last winter, and with a typical Bregman season it ought to be once again. Bregman will turn 32 next March, which puts him on the old side for a top-end free agent, but that’s the same age at which Matt Chapman signed a six-year, $151MM extension — and did so without the benefit of the open market. Bregman is the most consistent offensive player and should reach or exceed that, so long as he stays healthy and productive this year. If he doesn’t, he has a safety net of two years and $80MM in Boston (plus another opt-out opportunity following the 2026 season).

6. Zac Gallen, RHP, Diamondbacks

Gallen is older than Cease but only by a matter of four months. He’s nearly two full years younger than Framber Valdez, as he’ll turn 31 in August of his next contract’s first year. He’s been durable himself, but not quite to Cease’s level; Gallen’s 132 starts since 2020 trail Cease by 13, and while he’s worked a bit deeper per start on average, he’s still 33 innings shy of Cease dating back to 2020.

The results, of course, are perpetually great. Gallen carries a combined 3.38 ERA through 756 2/3 innings since 2020. He misses bats at a slightly lower level (26.3% strikeout rate) but still sits comfortably above average. He also boasts better command than his current division rival, having walked a solid 7.5% of his opponents in this span.

Gallen, however, doesn’t have the same power arsenal as many of the pitchers on this list, which could hamper some of the interest. He’s going to be highly coveted, of course, but pitchers who average 93.5 mph on their heater aren’t going to have the same earning power as those who average three miles harder if all else is relatively similar. Modern front offices are drawn to velocity and strikeouts like moths to a flame. A healthy Gallen is all but a lock to cash in on a nine-figure deal, but he might come in a year under Cease and/or a few million dollars lighter in terms of average annual salary. Like Cease, he’s a slam-dunk QO recipient who’ll reject it without a second thought.

7. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

Before sharing and discussing our own personal, initial rankings of the top 10, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald and I had Valdez ranging everywhere from eighth to third. It’s fair to quibble and suggest that among pitchers specifically, he should land anywhere from No. 2-5 on these rankings since he’ll turn 32 shortly after the season and this is based on earning power. Age won’t be on his side. Very few free agents heading into their age-32 season can command five-plus years. Over the past decade, the only starting pitchers to command five or more years heading into their age-32 season or later are Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Jacob deGrom and Zack Greinke (six, for Greinke).

Valdez may not immediately jump out as someone who should be mentioned in the same breath as that group of arms, but his results indicate otherwise. The left-hander truly broke out in 2020, solidifying himself in Houston’s rotation with a dozen starts of 3.57 ERA ball. He’s never looked back. Heck, he’s only gotten better.

Since 2020, Valdez touts a 3.11 ERA, 24% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 125 starts. That’s 20 fewer starts than Cease and seven fewer than Gallen over the same span, but innings-wise he’s ahead of both. Valdez is the rare 2025 pitcher who averages better than six frames per start, sitting just over 6 1/3 innings per appearance. He had a big jump in stuff over the course of that stretch, too. After averaging a bit better than 93 mph on his sinker from 2020-22, he’s sitting 94.7 mph on the pitch dating back to 2023. He had similar gains on his curveball and changeup, which now sit 79.9 mph and 90 mph, respectively.

Because Valdez has such a good changeup, he has virtually no platoon split of which to speak. Lefties have hit him at an awful .215/.313/.318 clip, while righties are just as feeble at .227/.300/.340. Valdez’s power sinker also makes him the sport’s premier ground-ball starter. The only pitcher with a higher ground-ball rate since 2020 (min. 300 innings) is St. Louis righty Andre Pallante, though he’s shuttled between the rotation and bullpen for the Cards. Valdez’s 62% clip since 2020 tops Logan Webb, who’s next on the list, by nearly four percentage points.

Valdez will be a 32-year-old starter with a qualifying offer, barring a midseason trade. Typically, that’s an unfavorable package. However, he’s one of baseball’s top innings eaters and top ground-ball pitchers. He has better-than-average strikeout and walk numbers, and he’s a lefty with mid-90s velocity. Valdez posted a 3.57 ERA or better in five straight seasons from 2020-24. He’s out to a brilliant start. If he can manage a sub-3.00 ERA, it’d be his third in four years. If he were 30 with this exact same track record and statistical profile, he’d probably be second on this list. As it stands, he could still reach or exceed $150MM even if his age caps him at five years.

8. Michael King, RHP, Padres

There are plenty of similarities between King and Gallen, as recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Next year is technically King’s age-31 season, compared to Gallen’s age-30, but the age gap is scarcely more than two months. July 1 is the cutoff point used in those distinctions; King turns 31 on May 25, while Gallen would follow on Aug. 3. Because King spent so much time as a reliever, he can credibly claim to have fewer “miles” (i.e. innings) on that right arm.

More importantly and more simply, King can just point out that he’s been outstanding over the past four seasons. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA in relief in 2022, went sub-3.00 in 2023 between the bullpen and rotation, and repeated the feat as a full-time starter in 2024. Since Opening Day in ’22, King touts a 2.76 earned run average with a terrific 28.9% strikeout rate against a solid 8.2% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a roughly average 42.3% rate. Metrics like FIP (3.11) and SIERA (3.35) agree that he’s been excellent.

King’s track record in the rotation isn’t especially long, but two seasons of top-notch starting pitching will be more than enough to convince teams he’s a viable rotation cog. Given his recent track record and his strong start, there’s little reason to think he’s in for any kind of collapse. The main knocks against him will be pedestrian velocity — 93.7 mph on his four-seamer and 92.9 mph on his sinker since Opening Day ’24 — age and qualifying offer. King’s contract technically has a mutual option, but there’s no chance it’ll be picked up. He’s going to turn that down, reject a qualifying offer, and justifiably seek a nine-figure contract. He’ll have a comparable case to Gallen, and both have a clear case to move beyond the $115-120MM range previously established by Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman.

9. Ranger Suarez, LHP, Phillies

Another currently 29-year-old starter who’ll pitch most of next year at 30, Suarez is down the list a bit because he’s currently on the mend from a back injury. When he’s healthy, he’s been a consistently above-average starter for the Phillies. From 2021-24, Suarez holds a 3.27 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 53.4% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged 93 mph on his four-seamer and 92.2 mph on his sinker in that time, though both were down in 2024, when he missed a month due to a different back injury.

Consecutive seasons impacted by back troubles will be difficult to ignore, and as someone with closer to average velocity, the margin for error becomes thinner. Suarez won’t stick on the list if he struggles or sees further declines in his stuff upon returning, but a healthy Suarez is a playoff-caliber arm with better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers. He also keeps the ball in the yard despite playing his home games in a bandbox; in the past four years, Suarez has averaged just 0.77 homers per nine frames. He consistently limits hard contact, and his ground-ball rate is a perennial plus.

The track record isn’t as long, but there are some parallels with Max Fried. The former Braves and current Yankees ace has better command, but both are lefties who lack plus velocity, have closer-to-average strikeout rates than most top starters and offset those “flaws” with heaps of grounders and a penchant for weak contact.

Suarez needs to get healthy and hold up over his final 27 to 28 starts of the season. If he does, he’ll have a chance to crack $100MM in free agency. The track record here is stronger than that of Eduardo Rodriguez, who’s twice landed free agent deals in the range of $80MM. Suarez is clearly a better pitcher than either Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) or Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) at the time of those respective free agent agreements. He could push into the Ray/Gausman range.

10. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

It’s hard to draw up a better start to year one of a pillow contract than the Polar Bear’s .321/.431/.660 slash through 15 games. Alonso has gone deep four times in 65 plate appearances. We’re still firmly in small sample territory, but he’s walked at what would be a career-best 13.8% clip and has the same strikeout rate (nine walks, nine strikeouts thus far).

We can take those rates with a grain of salt, given that we’re talking about two weeks’ worth of games here, but Alonso’s approach has looked quite a bit better this year. He’s chasing off the plate at a career-low 20.1% rate, per Statcast. His overall 84.4% contact rate would be a career-best mark by a huge six percentage points. More specifically, Alonso isn’t whiffing when he does chase off the plate; his 69.7% contact rate on pitches off the plate is miles ahead of his career 55.8% clip.

Batted-ball data paints Alonso in a more favorable light than ever. He’s averaging a comical 95.5 mph off the bat and has struck 62.2% of his batted balls at an exit velo of at least 95 mph. In virtually every way possible, Alonso just looks like a monster through the first two-plus weeks of the season. There’s no telling if he can sustain those gains over the remaining 90% of the season, but he could scarcely be performing better.

When Alonso hit the market this past offseason, he did so coming off a pair of all-or-nothing campaigns at the plate. His strikeout rate had climbed in consecutive years, and his previously elite offense had settled in as more good than great. From 2023-24, Alonso hit .229/.324/.480. The power was still elite, but the rest of his offensive profile was far more pedestrian. By measure of wRC+, he’d been 21% better than average over a span of two years. Again, that’s quite good — it’s just not superstar-caliber offense. And, for a first-base-only slugger who could move to DH over the course of a long-term deal, “good-not-great” offense isn’t going to cut it. The market seemingly agreed.

If Alonso can sustain even 75% of this ludicrous start to his season, he’ll be in a much stronger position this time around. He’d hit the market on the heels of a stronger platform year and do so without a qualifying offer. He already rejected one last winter, and a player can only receive one QO in his career. Alonso banked $20.5MM in his final arbitration season and will earn $30MM this year. He’d be $106.5MM shy of the $157MM guarantee he reportedly rejected on the Mets’ extension offer in 2023. If he’s hitting anywhere close to this level, that’d be attainable on even a four-year deal.

Alonso’s appetite for leaving Queens could come into play here. By all accounts, he hopes to stay with the Mets in free agency last time around. The Mets took a measured approach and eventually kept him on a two-year deal with an opt-out. If their preference is again a shorter term, would Alonso be open to it? One would imagine he’d be more willing to take a high-AAV three-year pact for the Mets than for any other club, at the very least. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. off the market, there’s no longer a clearly better and younger first base option for the Mets to pursue.

A lot of factors will influence Alonso’s earning power and whether he remains a Met long term, but the outrageous strength of his start has him back in the top-10 on our rankings, even though there are quite a few players who could push into this mix as the year goes on.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Luis Arraez, Cody Bellinger, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Zach Eflin, Erick Fedde, Jack Flaherty, Ryan Helsley, Ha-Seong Kim, Cedric Mullins, Josh Naylor, Tyler O’Neill, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Lane Thomas, Gleyber Torres, Devin Williams

Rule 5 Draft Update: April Edition

By Anthony Franco | April 14, 2025 at 9:05pm CDT

Last winter’s Rule 5 draft was relatively busy, as 15 players were selected across 14 teams. Not all of those players broke camp, so we’ll check in on the class to see which draftees impressed enough in Spring Training to make their major league debuts.

A quick refresh for those unfamiliar with the process: the Rule 5 draft is a means of getting MLB opportunities to players who might be blocked with their current organization. Teams can draft certain players who are left off their original club’s 40-man roster. The drafting team needs to keep that player on the MLB roster or injured list for their entire first season. If they do so, they’d gain the player’s contractual rights permanently. A team can keep an injured Rule 5 pick on the major league IL, but they’d eventually need to carry him on the active roster for 90 days. If the player misses the entire season, the Rule 5 restriction carries over to the following year.

If the drafting team decides not to carry the player on the roster at any point during the year, they need to place him on waivers. If he goes unclaimed, the player is offered back to his original organization — which does not need to carry him on either the MLB or 40-man rosters to take him back.

On An Active Roster

Shane Smith, White Sox RHP (selected from Brewers)

Smith not only made Chicago’s roster, he cracked the Opening Day rotation for the rebuilding club. Most of the time, teams keep Rule 5 pitchers in low-leverage relief until they build enough of a regular season track record to be entrusted with more meaningful innings. The White Sox are giving Smith a rare amount of responsibility right out of the gate.

Some of that is on the team, of course. They’re coming off the worst season in modern history and expected to be one of the three worst teams in MLB this year. Their Opening Day starter, Sean Burke, entered the year with 20 days of major league service. Still, Smith has put his best foot forward in securing that rotation spot. He worked 10 2/3 innings of four-run ball during Spring Training, striking out 11 against four walks. Smith has managed a pair of quality starts within his first three regular season outings. He has only given up four runs across 17 2/3 frames, a 2.04 earned run average.

The 6’3″ righty will need to improve upon his 12:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s getting ground-balls at an excellent 52.1% clip, though, and a four-pitch mix led by a 94-95 MPH fastball is intriguing. He’s not in any danger of losing his roster spot anytime soon.

Liam Hicks, Marlins C (selected from Tigers)

Hicks, a lefty-swinging catcher, went from the Rangers to the Tigers in last summer’s Carson Kelly deal. While he reached base at a .414 clip in Double-A after the trade, Detroit opted not to add him to the 40-man roster. The rebuilding Marlins grabbed him to back up Nick Fortes, buying more time for highly-regarded prospect Agustín Ramírez to play at Triple-A.

Plate discipline has been Hicks’ calling card in the minors. He had more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six) during Spring Training, though he only hit .200 with one extra-base hit in 40 plate appearances. He broke camp and has hit .214 with two walks and six strikeouts in 35 trips to the plate. His lone extra-base knock is a double. Opponents have stolen seven bases in eight attempts over his 74 innings behind the dish.

It hasn’t been a great start, but Hicks doesn’t seem in jeopardy of getting squeezed off the roster in the near future. Fortes, who is probably better suited as a backup himself, went on the injured list with an oblique strain last week. The Fish called up journeyman Rob Brantly in his place. Hicks got the start in two of the three games over the weekend. He’s the primary catcher for now. Ramírez should get a look fairly soon, but Hicks has a bit of run to show he should stick around as the backup.

Garrett McDaniels, Angels LHP (selected from Dodgers)

McDaniels had made two appearances above A-ball — totaling three innings at Double-A — when the Angels plucked him out of the Dodgers’ system. He showed an impressive combination of strikeouts and ground-balls in the lower minors that intrigued the Halos. The grounders have remained against high-level hitters, though the whiffs have not. McDaniels got grounders on more than two-thirds of batted balls over nine Spring Training innings. He jumped a couple more experienced southpaws on the bullpen depth chart to break camp despite four strikeouts and walks apiece.

The 6’2″ lefty has been hit hard through his first few MLB appearances. McDaniels has allowed four runs (three earned) over 5 2/3 innings. He has given up seven hits and issued five walks while recording five punchouts. He’s still getting a ton of worm-burners. Twelve of the 17 batted balls he’s allowed have been grounders. They’ve mostly been hit hard, though, and one of the two fly-balls he has given up was a Yainer Diaz grand slam.

Noah Murdock, Athletics RHP (selected from Royals)

Murdock, a 6’8″ righty, has been a ground-ball machine throughout his minor league career. He got grounders at a huge 59.7% clip over 62 2/3 innings between the top two minor league levels last season. That continued into Spring Training, as he kept the ball on the ground at a 70.4% rate en route to a 3.86 ERA over 11 2/3 innings.

That earned Murdock a bullpen spot and a handful of relatively high-leverage assignments from skipper Mark Kotsay. It’s been a shaky start. Murdock has allowed eight runs through 8 2/3 frames, largely because of 10 walks. Most of the damage came in one dreadful appearance against the Cubs, where he gave up six runs in one inning. Murdock has managed scoreless appearances in four of his five other outings, but he has walked at least one hitter in all but one of those games. He’ll need to find the strike zone more consistently to stick all season.

Gage Workman, Cubs IF (selected from Tigers)

Workman had never played above Double-A, where he struck out at a lofty 27.5% rate. His combination of power, speed and defensive ability nevertheless led the Cubs to add him. Workman mashed his way onto the Opening Day roster with a .364/.420/.705 line and four homers over 20 games this spring.

The Cubs haven’t been able to find him much playing time. He has started only started two of their first 19 games, both at third base. Workman has two hits and a walk with five strikeouts over 10 plate appearances. The Cubs might not be able to use a bench spot like this all season.

Mike Vasil, White Sox RHP (selected from Mets via Rays and Phillies)

Vasil landed with the Rays via a Rule 5 draft day trade with Philadelphia. Tampa Bay waived the UVA product a couple weeks into Spring Training. The White Sox claimed him to prevent him from being returned to the Mets organization. Vasil joined Smith as the second Rule 5 pick on the Sox’s roster. He’s working in the mop-up spots typically associated with Rule 5 draftees. In four appearances, Vasil has reeled off nine scoreless innings. He has only managed six strikeouts against four walks and a hit batter. He’s coming off a 6.04 ERA over 134 innings in Triple-A.

Currently On Major League Injured List

Angel Bastardo, Blue Jays RHP (selected from Red Sox)

Bastardo underwent Tommy John surgery last June while he was in the Boston system. The Jays selected him knowing they’d stash him on the 60-day injured list for most or all of this season. That delays the decision on whether to keep him in the MLB bullpen, but he’d need to stick on the 40-man roster throughout next offseason and log at least 90 days on the active roster between this season and next for the Jays to get his contractual rights.

Nate Lavender, Rays LHP (selected from Mets)

It’s basically an identical scenario with Lavender, who underwent Tommy John surgery last May when he was pitching for the Mets. He’s perhaps a little more likely than Bastardo to make his return in the second half of this season. In any case, the Rays won’t need to make the decision for at least a few more months.

Connor Thomas, Brewers LHP (selected from Cardinals)

Behind a 53.5% ground-ball rate, the soft-tossing Thomas managed a sub-3.00 ERA over 56 Triple-A appearances a year ago. He had a solid spring, throwing 11 1/3 innings of four-run ball with 11 strikeouts and five walks. Thomas broke camp in low-leverage relief. He was hit hard in his first two MLB appearances. The Yankees teed off for eight runs (including a trio of homers) over two innings in his debut. Thomas gave up four runs in 3 1/3 frames against the Reds a week later. The Brewers placed him on the IL with elbow arthritis after the latter appearance. A return timeline is unclear.

Returned To Original Organization

Evan Reifert, RHP (returned to Rays from Nationals)

Refiert is a slider specialist with well below-average command. He walked 12 batters in 6 1/3 innings during Spring Training, so the Nats returned him to the Rays a couple weeks before Opening Day. Tampa Bay assigned him to Triple-A Durham for his first stint at that level.

Cooper Bowman, 2B (returned to A’s from Reds)

A righty-hitting second baseman, Bowman got a brief look in camp from the Reds. He had three hits (all singles) in 25 Spring Training at-bats before Cincinnati decided he wouldn’t make the team. The A’s assigned him to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he has begun the season on the injured list. Bowman struggled in Triple-A last season but has hit well up through Double-A.

Eiberson Castellano, RHP (returned to Phillies by Twins)

Castellano was trying to make the jump directly from Double-A, where he’d turned in a sub-4.00 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate last season. He didn’t command the ball well enough in camp to crack the Twins’ pitching staff, however. Castellano walked 10 batters and surrendered 10 runs over 10 2/3 innings. Minnesota returned him to the Phillies, who assigned him back to Double-A Reading. He’s pitched there once so far, firing three perfect innings with five strikeouts.

Anderson Pilar, RHP (returned to Marlins by Braves)

Pilar is another Rule 5 pick whose command was an issue in camp. He walked six batters over 5 2/3 innings, giving up nine runs in the process. Atlanta returned him to the Marlins, who assigned him to Triple-A Jacksonville. Pilar has been fantastic in the early going there, striking out nine without issuing a walk over 5 2/3 scoreless innings. If he continues at anything like that pace, he should get a look in Miami’s bullpen before much longer.

Juan Nuñez, RHP (returned to Orioles by Padres)

Nuñez, who had never pitched above High-A when he was selected, always had an uphill battle to cracking a win-now roster in San Diego. Six walks over five Spring Training innings ensured he’d be offered back to the Orioles. He’s making his Double-A debut this season. Nuñez has fanned three in two scoreless innings.

Christian Cairo, SS (returned to Guardians by Braves)

Atlanta was the only team to make two Rule 5 selections. They returned Cairo to Cleveland at the same time they offered Pilar back to the Marlins. Cairo is one of a number of contact-oriented middle infielders in the Guardians’ system. He hit .179 without a home run in 16 Spring Training games. Cleveland assigned him back to Triple-A Columbus, where he finished last season. He’s batting .250 with 12 strikeouts and four walks over his first 10 contests.

Poll: Should The Nationals Have Been More Aggressive This Winter?

By Nick Deeds | April 14, 2025 at 3:40pm CDT

The Nationals lost 91 games in 2024 but entered this winter with an arrow that was seemingly pointed upwards. Key young players like CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore took steps forward, while others like James Wood and Dylan Crews made their big league debuts. Between those positive signs for the future and the onerous Patrick Corbin contract finally coming off the club’s books, it was widely speculated around baseball that the Nationals could be a player in the upper echelons of free agency for the first time since their rebuild began in 2021. They instead opted for a much more reserved approach in free agency.

Fan speculation that the club could attempt to enter the Juan Soto bidding to pair their former superstar with the package of youngsters they acquired for him back in 2022 was always farfetched, but the club’s passive winter went beyond not taking a swing at free agency’s top dog. Rather than pursue a big bat at first base like Pete Alonso, GM Mike Rizzo and his front office swung a trade for Nathaniel Lowe and signed Josh Bell. Alex Bregman would’ve made plenty of sense as an addition at third base, but the club opted to take low-cost fliers on Paul DeJong and Amed Rosario instead.

That measured approach to upgrading the lineup carried over to the pitching staff as well. The Nats didn’t appear interested in a mid-rotation veteran like Nick Pivetta or a potential ace like Jack Flaherty who could lead the pitching staff, even when both lingered on the market into February. They settled on depth options like Michael Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara behind their stable of young arms. Even pricey one-year relief arms like Kenley Jansen and Jose Leclerc signed by other clubs looking to take a step forward toward contention were eschewed in favor of non-tendering and then re-signing Kyle Finnegan.

None of those depth moves were necessarily bad on paper, and some of them have worked out so far. Finnegan has looked good in his return to the club’s closer role to this point. It’s hard to argue with Lowe’s .250/.339/.500 slash line as a massive upgrade over what Joey Meneses and Joey Gallo offered D.C. last year. Rosario has looked solid in the utility role he found some success in with the Rays last year. Despite those early successes, the club’s mostly passive offseason frustrated some fans in the nation’s capital. The Nats are just 6-9 to this point in the year and stand little hope of overcoming titanic teams like the Mets and Phillies as presently constructed.

Of course, that well may have been true even if the team had splurged on higher-profile free agents. The Phillies have been one of the NL’s biggest juggernauts for years now and show little sign of slowing down. The Mets added Soto to a team that already made the NLCS. Even with a shocking 4-11 start in Atlanta opening the door to contention a bit more for the Nationals, they’d have a steep hill to climb to get back to the postseason this year. Club owner Mark Lerner suggested to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post back in February that the gap between where the Nationals stood entering the winter and the league’s playoff-caliber clubs was too big to justify a significant outlay.

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner told Svrluga. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games.”

Lerner went on to highlight the club’s decision to sign Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126MM deal prior to the 2011 season, suggesting that they signed Werth when the club was “right on the cusp” of finding success. That comparison is a somewhat questionable one, however. The 2010 Nationals actually posted a worse record than the 2024 club, losing 93 games, and the Nats finished with a lackluster 80-81 record in Werth’s first year in D.C. before taking off in 2012 thanks in part to the arrival of Bryce Harper.

By contrast, players like Wood, Gore and Abrams are already in place with the club and finding success in the majors. Slow starts this year for Crews and Luis Garcia Jr. highlight the inconsistencies that come with a team built around young talent, but proven veterans would help to paper over those struggles and create a more well-balanced roster. Perhaps that wouldn’t be enough to get the Nationals back to the postseason this year, but a record better than the one the team produced back in 2011 would’ve been within reach. A win total in the low-to-mid 80s can even be enough to squeak into the playoffs in the era of 12 playoff teams, as demonstrated by clubs like the Marlins, Royals, and Tigers in recent years.

What do MLBTR readers think about the Nationals’ decision to hold off on ramping spending back up? Should they have moved more aggressively to exit their rebuilding phase this winter, or were they wise to wait for their young players to develop more before committing to a win-now approach? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Which Top Prospect Will Arrive In Boston Next?

By Nick Deeds | April 11, 2025 at 6:42pm CDT

After an offseason that saw the Red Sox get aggressive in improving the big league club by adding Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Alex Bregman, the club showed a different kind of aggressiveness when they included top infield prospect Kristian Campbell on their Opening Day roster. That move has certainly paid off for them so far; not only has Campbell signed on with the club long-term, but he’s hitting an excellent .318/.426/.545 across his first 13 games in the major leagues while serving as the club’s regular second baseman and occasionally making appearances in the outfield.

Campbell wasn’t the only top prospect the Red Sox had knocking on the door to the majors this spring, however. Outfielder Roman Anthony and infielder Marcelo Mayer are rated just as highly as Campbell, with all three being consensus top-15 prospects across the entire sport. While a vacancy at second base and Campbell’s impressive work flying through the minor leagues last year were enough to get him called up to the majors first among the trio, it should surprise no one if all three are in the majors in relatively short order. With that being said, it remains unclear which of Anthony and Mayer are most likely to make it to the majors next.

Anthony, 21 next month, has a strong case to come up and contribute soon. As a consensus top-two prospect in the sport who has been ranked number one overall by multiple major publications, Anthony’s ceiling is immense. Last year, he slashed .291/.396/.498 between the Double- and Triple-A levels, including a phenomenal .344/.463/.519 slash line when looking just at his 35 games (164 plate appearances) at the highest level of the minor leagues. That hot finish at Triple-A created plenty of buzz about the possibility of Anthony breaking camp with the Red Sox over the offseason, but Anthony’s .206/.391/.324 slash line in Spring Training this year wasn’t enough to convince Boston brass that their top prospect was ready for the next step.

His early season performance at Triple-A hasn’t exactly demanded consideration for a promotion, either. Through ten games, Anthony is hitting .177/.364/.412 in his return to the club’s Worcester affiliate. While that’s a sample of just 44 plate appearances, Anthony’s 31.8% strikeout rate so far this year at the very least suggests he’s running a bit cold right now, though that he’s been able to walk at a 22.7% clip and bash a pair of homers while doing so is certainly impressive. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo recently suggested that the Red Sox are currently hoping to see more production from Anthony against left-handed pitchers before he makes it to the big leagues. That’s on top of a need for Anthony to work on his defense, which will be challenged as he appears likely to move from center field to left upon being called up to the majors.

That to-do list and Anthony’s middling play early in the season could open the door for Mayer to beat him to the majors. The 22-year-old provided a strong challenge to Campbell for the second base job during Spring Training as he hit .333/.455/.528 during camp, though Mayer’s lack of experience above the Double-A level always made him a less likely option to get the job. Mayer’s first taste of Triple-A has seen him cool off significant relative to his spring performance, as he’s hit just .243/.282/.405 with a 28.2% strikeout rate through nine games at the level. He’ll surely need to start hitting better than that with Worcester before he gets called up to the majors, although the club hasn’t laid out any more specific issues that Mayer needs to address before he can be called up like they have with Anthony.

The fact that the club has specific areas they’d like to see Anthony grow before he reaches the majors, in conjunction with Mayer finishing as arguably the runner up behind Campbell for the club’s starting second base job, would seem to suggest that Mayer is closer to being promoted than Anthony is. However, Anthony has one major leg up in this conversation relative to Mayer: the construction of Boston’s lineup. With Campbell serving as the club’s regular second baseman, there is no longer an obvious spot on the infield which Mayer can take up. Campbell, Triston Casas, Alex Bregman, and Trevor Story are all slated for regular at-bats this year, and even the DH role is filled by Rafael Devers on a daily basis.

Either an injury somewhere on the infield, a move to the outfield for Campbell, or a shocking move to bench Story would likely be necessary for Mayer to muscle his way into the lineup at this point. The same cannot be said of Anthony, who has a fairly straightforward path to playing time in the club’s outfield mix. Ceddanne Rafaela has served as the club’s usual center fielder entering the 2025 campaign, but he’s hit just .243/.275/.378 in the majors to this point in his career, including a paltry .205/.279/.205 line so far this year. While he’s a brilliant defender in center field, that’s not the type of production that should keep a team from promoting the sport’s top prospect to the majors once he’s ready. Rafaela, who has the ability to play both the infield and the outfield, could move to a utility role on the bench similar to the one Enrique Hernandez once filled once Anthony is ready to go. Anthony could either plug in directly for Rafaela in center field, or he could be tasked with manning left field while Jarren Duran slides over to center.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Anthony make it to the majors first, off the back of his status as the sport’s #1 prospect and a potential opening in the outfield? Or will the club’s desire to see Anthony hit more against southpaws in the minors and Mayer’s strong work in Spring Training be enough to get him to the majors first? Have your say in the poll below:

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