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Poll: Should The Cubs Trade For A Bat This Summer?

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The Cubs are one of the better teams in the National League this year. Their 50-35 record leaves them tied with the Phillies for the second seed in the NL, and they’ve led their division since April 4 without interruption. Much of that can be attributed to an excellent offense headlined by the offseason addition of Kyle Tucker and the breakout of Pete Crow-Armstrong. With that being said, they lost some steam in the month of June after posting a 13-13 record and watching their lead in the NL Central shrink to just two games.

Between their strong start to the season and their fading lead in the division, Chicago figures to be one of the more aggressive buyers in the game this summer. Most of the focus has been on starting pitching, and for good reason. Shota Imanaga remains a steady front-of-the-rotation arm and Matthew Boyd has been a revelation this year with a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts, but the loss of Justin Steele at the top of the Cubs’ rotation has been felt deeply. Jameson Taillon (85 ERA+), Colin Rea (87 ERA+), and Cade Horton (79 ERA+) have all pitched to middling results even by the standards of a back-of-the-rotation arm, while Ben Brown’s ERA ballooned to 6.13 before he was optioned to Triple-A upon Imanaga’s return from a hamstring strain last week.

Considering that Boyd’s 98 2/3 innings of work is already his highest total since 2019, adding a rotation arm or two is a slam-dunk for this team. That obvious need could be overshadowing another major hole for the Cubs, however. It’s somewhat bold to suggest the team that leads all of baseball in position player fWAR (18.9) and has the third most potent offense in baseball (116 wRC+) could be a bat short, but Chicago has gotten -0.3 fWAR from the third base position this year. That’s the worst figure in baseball, and the team’s 62 wRC+ at the hot corner is ahead of only the Reds and Marlins. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic made a strong case for the Cubs to add another hitter to the lineup earlier this week, and third base is the natural position for Chicago to upgrade.

2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw is currently holding down the for at the position. Grades on Shaw’s defense are mixed, as he has -1 Outs Above Average but +5 Defensive Runs Saved. That latter figure trails only Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ernie Clement, and Caleb Durbin this year. Even if the more optimistic view of Shaw’s defense is taken, however, his offense has been lackluster with a .221/.305/.315 (80 wRC+) in 203 plate appearances this year. He was optioned to the minors for about a month earlier this season, but even since returning his 89 wRC+ is well-below league average. The club’s internal options behind Shaw are uninspiring at best. Vidal Brujan has a wRC+ of 9 this year in a bench role with the team, meaning he’s been 91 below league average offensively. Jon Berti’s wRC+ of 42 is only marginally better. While Justin Turner has improved after an ice cold start to the year, he still carries a wRC+ of just 62 on the season and is overmatched defensively at third base in his age-40 season.

There should be clear upgrades available this summer, if the Cubs are inclined to pursue them. Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks looks like the best bat potentially available at any position, and he’s already clubbed 26 homers as the everyday third baseman in Arizona. Willi Castro is enjoying what could be a career year on the Twins (122 wRC+) and can play all over the diamond, including third base. Even a bench or platoon option could be a substantial improvement given the production of Chicago’s reserves. Ryan McMahon and Hayes have both gotten some trade buzz this summer, but both players are below-average hitters on underwater contracts. More palatable choices who could theoretically be available include Amed Rosario of the Nationals, Ramon Urias of the Orioles, and Abraham Toro of the Red Sox.

It’s hard to argue with the notion that the Cubs could make themselves a better team by adding a third baseman, or at least another infielder who can help carry the load at third base. With that being said, resources are finite. The Cubs’ once-vaunted farm system has taken hits due to the graduations of players like Crow-Armstrong, Shaw, and Horton, trades for Tucker and Michael Busch, and tough seasons for some top prospects like James Triantos. They still have a fairly robust group of near big league ready talent to trade from, but it could be hard to part with Owen Caissie as long as the possibility of Tucker leaving in free agency this winter remains on the table.

Trading for help on offense would necessarily require using capital that otherwise could have been spent to add another starter. Perhaps targeting a less expensive bench contributor could be a way to add infield help without compromising the club’s ability to go after a big name rotation add or two like Sandy Alcantara, Merrill Kelly, or Mitch Keller, but it could be hard for the Cubs to justify spending resources on another bat to further bolster an offense that has averaged more than five runs per game this season.

How do MLBTR readers view Chicago’s third base situation? Should the Cubs be aggressive in trying to add a starting third baseman to supplant Shaw down the stretch? Should they stick with their current offense and focus entirely on adding pitching? Or perhaps they should try to bolster their depth with a low-cost bench addition? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?

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The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.

Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.

That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.

For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.

On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.

Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.

Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.

How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series.  After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year.  The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.

White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event.  Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner.  That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox.  The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.

Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal.  While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award.  That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.

Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater

Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn.  Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.

Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago.  On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain.  He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.

The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season.  But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect.  Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.

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Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

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The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.

The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.

After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)

Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.

Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.

Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.

As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.

Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.

How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Thus far, MLBTR's Deadline Outlook series has focused on teams that have a clear buy or sell direction. The Orioles are certainly trending towards the latter but are arguably the first semi-bubble team that we'll cover. Barring a monster July, they'll have no choice but to sell at least some short-term pieces. They've got a number of players who'll draw interest.

Record: 34-46 (2.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Gary Sánchez

Baltimore has eight impending free agents, seven of whom have some level of trade value. O'Hearn has slumped this month but still carries a robust .301/.384/.485 line. It's his third consecutive above-average season, and he's playing on an affordable $8MM salary. The Mariners, Giants, Reds, Rangers and Royals could all make sense. Mullins had a monster April but hasn't hit over the last two months. He's nevertheless alongside Luis Robert Jr. as the most obvious trade candidates at a weak position. The Mets, Phillies, Guardians, Royals, Padres and Braves are among teams that could use a center fielder or could target Mullins with an eye towards playing him in a corner.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Athletics

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Athletics, a team that has been rebuilding for a few years now. They had an aggressive winter ahead of the 2025 campaign and showed some promise early in the season but they have since fallen back and are clearly not out of the rebuild yet.

Record: 33-50 (0.2% playoff probability)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Luis Urías, Sean Newcomb, Gio Urshela, T.J. McFarland, Miguel Andujar, José Leclerc

These guys should all be very much available in the next few weeks, though it's unlikely the A's get a massive return from any of them. Luis Urías should be the most appealing of the bunch. The A's signed him to a one-year, $1.1MM deal in the offseason. He has appeared in 66 games so far this year with seven home runs, a 10% walk rate and 13.3% strikeout rate. His .244/.328/.378 batting line translates to a 102 wRC+. He has mostly played second base in 2025 but has also spent some time at third and has extensive experience at both positions. He's not a superstar, but he's a solid option in a market without a ton of others available, so he should be able to net the A's a prospect or two. Last year, infielders like Paul DeJong, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Amed Rosario were flipped for modest returns and Urías could be somewhat similar.

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Poll: NL Cy Young Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? Yesterday’s poll covered the AL, where 45.5% of voters expect southpaw Tarik Skubal to repeat as the Cy Young Award winner. Today, our focus is on the NL. A look at some of the top candidates:

Paul Skenes

After a dominant debut season where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished third in Cy Young voting, it shouldn’t register as much of a surprise that Skenes is one of the favorites for the award in his sophomore season as a big leaguer. The right-hander has an NL-best 2.12 ERA in 106 innings of work through 17 starts with strong peripherals to match. He’s striking out 26.9% of his opponents, walking 7.1%, and is doing extremely well in terms of contact management with a 48.9% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 4.9%. It’s a strong collection of numbers for any player, much less a 23-year-old in just his second MLB season.

Even so, Skenes is hardly a slam dunk for the award. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all actually worse than they were in his rookie campaign. His 3.28 SIERA is just eighth in the NL, suggesting that there are other contenders for the award who are better set up to excel in the second half of the season than he is. Aside from that, some more traditional voters could look at Skenes’s 4-7 record on a Pirates team that could flirt with a 100-loss campaign this year and hold it against the young star relative to other hurlers in the race who pitch for contenders.

Logan Webb

When looking at the game’s aces, it can be argued that none is more underappreciated than right-hander Logan Webb. He’s doing what he can to change that perception of him with a phenomenal season in his age-28 campaign, however. Webb’s 2.52 ERA lags behind that of Skenes, but he makes up for it in virtually every other category. His 107 1/3 innings of work across 17 starts leads the NL, and his 2.24 FIP is also good for the best in the senior circuit. While his 53.3% ground ball rate would be the lowest he’s posted in a full season if maintained through the end of the year, it’s still a well above average figure.

He’s made up for that decline in grounders by striking out more batters than ever before with a 27.7% clip that surpasses even Skenes, and he’s done it while maintaining a tidy 5.3% walk rate. There are very few red flags in Webb’s profile this year, and perhaps the biggest question is if a player who entered the year with a career 22.0% strikeout rate who has made only token improvements to his low-90s fastball in terms of velocity this year can sustain such a large spike in strikeouts. After finishing as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and sixth last season, could 2025 be Webb’s year to shine?

Zack Wheeler

No list of potential Cy Young candidates in the NL has been complete without Wheeler since he arrived in Philadelphia, and this year is no exception. The 35-year-old may have recently indicated that he’ll retire following the expiration of his current contract in 2027, but he’s shown no signs whatsoever of slowing down on the mound. Across 99 innings of work and 16 starts this year, Wheeler’s numbers look like they have a chance to be better than they’ve ever been come the end of the year.

His 2.55 ERA would be the best of his career by a slim margin after he posted a 2.57 figure last season, and his eye-popping 32.9% strikeout rate is not only nearly eight points better than his career mark, but the highest in all of baseball among qualified starters this year. His 2.70 SIERA is also the best in the NL, edging out Webb by just eight points, and he has a strong chance to eclipse 200 innings pitched for the third time in his career. Wheeler has finished second for the Cy Young twice before, in both 2021 and 2024. This year could be his best opportunity to secure the award before his planned retirement two seasons from now.

MacKenzie Gore

Easily the most surprising entrant into the list of top candidates for the Cy Young, Gore was once the sport’s consensus top pitching prospect but entered the 2025 season with a fairly pedestrian 4.20 ERA across parts of three seasons in the majors. He’s broken out in a big way as the Nationals’ ace this year, however, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 99 innings of work across 17 starts. His 31.8% strikeout rate is second only to Wheeler in the NL, and that overpowering stuff is enough to leave him with a strong 2.99 SIERA that largely supports his performance to this point in the season.

Impressive as he’s been, however, the 26-year-old also has much clearer flaws than the other contenders on this list. Like Skenes, Gore’s 3-8 record on a club with little hope of contending in 2025 could be a hard sell for the sport’s most traditional voters. There are also fair questions about how certain Gore is to keep up his performance in the second half. He’s mostly a fly ball pitcher, and that profile along with his 9.0% barrel rate allowed leave him susceptible to the long ball. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest among the top contenders for the Cy Young this year, as well. Perhaps most concerning of all is his performance down the stretch in 2024. After carrying a 3.47 ERA and 3.00 FIP through July 1 last year, Gore wore down in the second half and posted a 4.40 ERA with a 4.17 FIP across his final 15 starts. Will he be able to sustain his performance this year?

Other Options

While the four hurlers mentioned above are the top candidates, they certainly aren’t the only arms worthy of consideration. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner in the NL and would be firmly in contention for the award once again if not for a recent rib cage injury that figures to sideline him indefinitely. Jesus Luzardo has elite peripheral numbers but recently surrendered 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings across two appearances that could knock him out of contention for the award by themselves. Cristopher Sanchez and former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray are both in the midst of excellent seasons, but are overshadowed within their own rotations by Wheeler and Webb respectively. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.61 ERA is very impressive, but his less-than-elite peripherals and lack of volume leave him a step behind the other contenders.

Sale’s injury sets this race apart from the AL Cy Young and both of the MVP races by significantly diminishing the chances of a repeat. With what appears to be a fairly wide-open field, who do MLBTR readers expect to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming trade deadline continues with a look at the Colorado Rockies, who are on pace to break the 2024 White Sox' modern-day record for losses in a single season. General manager Bill Schmidt's club is on pace for a staggering 37 wins this season -- a mark that 23 of the game's 29 other clubs have already reached as of late June. The Rockies are a clear seller -- or at least, they should be. The Rox typically march to the beat of their own drum, however, and owner Dick Monfort seems particularly averse to any large-scale sell-offs.

Still, given the Rockies' historic futility in 2025, the expectation is that they'll move some veteran pieces, while the fan base's hope might be for an uncharacteristically active deadline on the sell side of things.

Record: 18-62 (0% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins

Sell Mode

Impending free agents: Germán Márquez, Thairo Estrada, Austin Gomber, Kyle Farmer, Orlando Arcia

Márquez has been a pillar for the Rockies' staff since coming over in a 2015-16 offseason trade that sent outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Rays. The Rox have resisted trading him in the past, twice signing him to extensions. He's now in his first full season post-Tommy John surgery, earning $10MM. There'll be about $3.17MM of that sum yet to be paid out of as of deadline day. Márquez got out to an awful start but has turned in a 3.21 ERA in 47 2/3 innings over his past nine starts (though that includes six unearned runs in his last start against the Dodgers). His 17.6% strikeout rate in that span is nowhere near peak levels, but his command has been good and he's averaging better than 95 mph on his heater. Plenty of teams would look at Marquez's velocity and track record of missing bats and think they could turn him around further.

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Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:

Tarik Skubal

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.

For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.

Garrett Crochet

Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.

Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.

Max Fried

Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.

Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.

Hunter Brown

Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.

There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.

Kris Bubic

Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.

Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.

Jacob deGrom

This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.

As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).

Other Options

The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

MLB Mailbag: Helsley, Giants, Rangers, Brewers, Gore, Cubs, Padres

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This week's MLBTR Mailbag looks at Ryan Helsley's value, potential upgrades for the Giants, some Rangers trade candidates, the Brewers' infield, MacKenzie Gore's breakout and why he's a difficult trade candidate to envision, the Cubs' bench, the Padres' outfield and more!

Let's dive in!

Sam asks...

Given Helsley's dip in performance this year, would the Cardinals get more future value/prospects by trading him or offering a QO? This questions assumes that the decision is made entirely on boosting the farm system, not with any considerations for this year's team or the '25 playoffs.

The assumption there is important, as I'm not at all convinced the Cardinals will trade Helsley given the manner in which they've trounced preseason expectations from just about everyone (myself one thousand percent included). From a pure look at future value, though, the more prudent move to gain future value is to trade him before July 31. Holding him makes further assumptions than the one you listed in this question; it assumes that Helsley will stay healthy and that he'll pitch well enough to merit a qualifying offer at season's end. Neither is a given.

Further, there's no certainty that he'd sign a contract worth $50MM or more even if he rejects a qualifying offer. That's the threshold needed to secure a compensatory pick after the first round of the draft. If Helsley signed for under $50MM, that comp pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, some 40 picks later.

If Helsley is healthy and pitching well, there's a good case for him to land that $50MM+, but we can't assume he gets it. There have been instances in the past of relievers turning down a QO, seeking a massive payday, and lingering in free agency because their initial ask was too high and because teams had exhausted their offseason budgets by the time that asking price came down. Cardinals fans should be quite familiar with this phenomenon; it's how Greg Holland landed in St. Louis back in 2018.

So, there's a lot of presumption just to get to the point where the Cardinals select in the No. 31-35 range with the comp pick for Helsley -- and then there's the matter of actually drafting the correct player there as well. There are obvious, bigger-picture benefits to adding that pick's slot value to the team's 2026 draft budget, but the best way to maximize that value is to land a high-quality prospect there. Let's run through the recent history of players selected with QO compensation picks after the first round:

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