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Poll: Kyle Tucker’s Earning Power

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The biggest news from the baseball world of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM extension with the Blue Jays, which will keep him in Toronto through the end of the 2039 season. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker were widely viewed as the top free agents of the coming offseason. Now that Guerrero is off the board, the top of the mountain belongs to Tucker, the superstar outfielder who the Cubs gave up a massive package (All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes, young starter Hayden Wesneski, and first-rounder Cam Smith) to acquire ahead of his final year of team control.

Tucker’s certainly validated that belief in him as an impact player during the early going this season. A career .276/.356/.520 hitter, he’s taken his game to an even higher level recently. Tucker emerged as an early-season MVP candidate last year before being limited to just 78 games by a fractured shin, but even in his last 250 games dating back to 2023, the 28-year-old is hitting .288/.387/.548 with a wRC+ of 157. That’s the fifth-highest figure among all hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that time, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and former teammate Yordan Alvarez.

That lofty company, combined with the huge expectations created by $700MM+ deals for the top-rated free agent in back-to-back offseasons, created plenty of intrigue about where Guerrero’s contract could end up prior to his extension with the Jays. His $500MM deal falls short of that $700MM mark both Ohtani and Soto reached, although Ohtani’s deal includes massive amounts of deferred money that make it lower than Guerrero’s pact in terms of net present value. Questions remain, however, about how Tucker’s own eventual deal will compare to those names. Notably, Tucker doesn’t have the sort of standout carrying tool that other top stars have. He’s not a threat to hit 60 homers like Judge, lacks Soto’s otherworldly strike zone recognition, and certainly isn’t the sort of once-in-a-century athlete Ohtani has proved himself to be.

With all that being said, however, Tucker gets to that elite tier of production by being well above average at just about everything. Among hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, Tucker’s barrel rate (11.7%) is top-30 in the majors, and his isolated slugging percentage is seventh best. He combined that excellent power with similarly excellent plate discipline; his 14.1% strikeout rate is the eleventh-lowest, while his 13.8% walk rate is fourth behind Judge, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. While Soto remains the only player to walk more often than he strikes out, the 0.3% difference between Tucker’s strikeout and walk rates is the smallest among the rest of the league.

Tucker’s talent in the batters’ box is further augmented by strong work in other areas of the game. He’s a well-regarded defender in right field who won the AL’s Gold Glove award at the position in 2019, and while he’s not shown an ability to play a premium position like center field, it seems unlikely that he’ll need to make a move down the defensive spectrum to DH or first base any time soon. He’s also proved to be a solid contributor on the bases. Despite middling foot speed, Tucker has managed to log 91 steals in 102 attempts since the start of the 2020 season. That’s good for a phenomenal 89.2% success rate, and includes 25- and 30-steal efforts during the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Tucker was well on his way to another 20+ steal season in 2024 before being sidelined by injury, and with three bags swiped in just 15 games this year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him steal more than his fair share of extra bases this season as well.

Given Tucker’s all-around impressive skill set, it’s not hard to see why teams will be clamoring to bring him into the fold this winter. There’s even a fairly strong argument to be made that Tucker is a more valuable player than Guerrero, given that their career numbers are relatively similar at the dish and Tucker is a far more valuable player in the field and on the basepaths. With that being said, Tucker’s age could hold him back somewhat relative to the deals landed by Soto and Guerrero. Soto hit free agency ahead of his age-26 season, while Guerrero is currently in the midst of his own age-26 campaign. Tucker, who turned 28 in January, is two years older than Guerrero and will be marketing himself three years older than Soto was this past offseason.

It’s possible that could keep him below that half-billion dollar threshold that only Guerrero and Soto have managed to reach by measure of net present value, but he could still be in for a massive payday. After all, Judge landed $360MM over nine years in free agency when marketing his age-31 season, while Ohtani was roughly the same age as Tucker when he landed his contract, which has a net present value of just under $461MM for luxury tax purposes. Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski reported on his Cubs Daily Podcast earlier this week that a person from Tucker’s agency, Excel Sports Management, suggested an estimate of $475MM over ten years for Tucker’s eventual contract. That figure obviously comes with caveats aplenty given that the source is Tucker’s own agency and he’s just 15 games into his platform season, but that number would top both Judge and Ohtani’s contracts in terms of NPV.

How do MLBTR readers believe Tucker’s contract situation will play out? Will he be able to crack the $500MM threshold that only Soto and Guerrero have crossed so far? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Braves Extend Spencer Schwellenbach?

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He has only made two starts this season, but it’s impossible not to be impressed. Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown 14 innings without giving up a run. Indeed, he hasn’t thrown so much as a single pitch with a runner in scoring position. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 14 to one. His groundball rate is 60%. He has allowed 30 batted balls and not one of them has been barreled. According to Baseball Savant, the righty has thrown six distinct pitches at least 10% of the time, and five of them have a positive run value. All told, his +9 pitching run value is the best in the sport. Two starts make for a tiny sample size, but like I said, it’s impossible not to be impressed by what Schwellenbach has done.

Of course, the 24-year-old is used to being impressive. Before the 2025 season began, he was mowing down opponents in the Grapefruit League, striking out 28 batters in 21 innings while pitching to a 3.00 ERA. Before that, he was a breakout stud in his rookie season, putting up a 3.35 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, and 2.6 FanGraphs WAR over 21 starts. Before that, he was a consensus top-five prospect in Atlanta’s system. Across 24 minor league starts at Single-A, High-A, and Double-A from 2023-24, he threw 110 innings with a 2.21 ERA and 3.01 FIP. He skipped Triple-A to make his big league debut last May and never looked back.

With less than one season of service time under his belt, Schwellenbach already finds himself a key member of the Braves’ rotation. Spencer Strider is still working his way back from elbow surgery. Reynaldo López will miss most of the season. Chris Sale remains the ace of the staff, but he’s 36 years old, injury-prone, and has looked unusually mortal to start the year. It remains unclear how much Atlanta will be able to count on top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, former All-Star Bryce Elder, and 2024 breakout arm Grant Holmes. Having Schwellenbach to rely on every fifth game will be critical as the Braves look to make up ground in the NL East following a 2-8 start to the season.

As Schwellenbach continues to impress – and as Atlanta continues to be reminded of the importance of reliable, top-end starting pitching – perhaps it’s time for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to start thinking about extending the right-hander. It might seem early to be talking about an extension for Schwellenbach. Then again, the Braves extended Strider shortly after his rookie season in 2022. At that time, he had 20 big league starts and 134 innings under his belt. Schwellenbach doesn’t have quite as much MLB service time as Strider did when he signed his extension, but he has now thrown more innings (137 2/3). Meanwhile, Michael Harris II was just 71 games into his big league career when he signed an extension with Atlanta in August 2022. As a position player, Harris is not quite as strong of a comp for Schwellenbach. Regardless, the key point is that this front office doesn’t have any qualms about extending players with limited big league service time. In fact, that’s part of the appeal for the Braves, who also extended Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies quite early on in their careers. The point of these extensions is to offer talented young players immediate financial security in exchange for additional years of team control down the line. If Schwellenbach keeps pitching this way, his asking price is only going to climb, and the chances that he would be willing to give up any of his future free agent years will diminish.

With that said, the Braves have awarded far fewer long-term extensions to pitchers than to position players. For instance, they notably did not extend two-time All-Star Max Fried, who left for the Yankees in free agency this past offseason. Dating back to the 2006 season, the Braves have only given out three guaranteed multi-year extensions to starting pitchers: Strider’s six-year, $75MM deal in 2022; Julio Teheran’s six-year, $32.4MM deal in 2014; and Tim Hudson’s three-year, $28MM deal in 2009. What’s more, the Strider extension has not exactly gone according to plan thus far. While he won 20 games and earned Cy Young votes in 2023, he has made just two starts since the beginning of the 2024 season after damaging his UCL. It’s also worth noting that the Braves have seen many young pitchers get off to promising starts only to fizzle out soon after, whether due to injury or underperformance. That includes arms like Ian Anderson, Michael Soroka, Kyle Wright, and Elder. Perhaps all that will make them a bit more cautious when it comes to Schwellenbach.

As for what a Schwellenbach extension might look like, we can turn to several recent comps. Since Strider inked his deal in October 2022, four more starters with fewer than two years of service time have signed multi-year extensions. Schwellenbach can almost surely ask for more than Cristopher Sánchez’s four-year, $22.5MM guarantee, though he is unlikely to command as much as Strider. The other three extensions – for Hunter Greene, Brayan Bello, and Brandon Pfaadt – were all for somewhere between $45MM and $55MM in guaranteed money over five or six years (with at least one club option). Schwellenbach has arguably had more big league success than any of those pitchers did when they signed their extensions. However, he doesn’t have as much experience as Pfaadt or Bello, nor did he ever have the prospect pedigree of Greene. Still, the preseason ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA projections envisioned Schwellenbach to be roughly as valuable, if not more so, than all three of those arms. With that in mind, a six-year deal (that would buy out Schwellenbach’s first free agent season) with an AAV around $9MM and at least one club option would be a logical starting point for negotiations.

Do MLBTR readers think the Braves should offer Schwellenbach an extension? Perhaps you think Atlanta needs to act fast and extend him now before his star shoots any higher. Or perhaps you think the Braves would be smarter to wait until the young right-hander has proven himself over a larger sample of starts. Have your say in the poll below:

 

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Poll: Will Bo Bichette Stay In Toronto?

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The big news around baseball this week is superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sticking in Toronto on a $500MM extension that will keep him with the Blue Jays for the next 14 years. While the deal is primarily notable because of Guerrero himself being one of the brightest young stars in the game whose free agency had long been anticipated by fans around the league, it’s also the most firm statement yet from the Blue Jays that they fully intend to continue attempting to compete even amid an increasingly difficult AL East division.

Entering Spring Training, the club had a number of key players set to come off the books within the next few seasons. That’s still the case for the majority of those players, with important pieces like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho poised to hit the open market within the next two seasons. With that being said, the club’s offseason additions of Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander combine with their recent extensions for Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk to give the club a talented nucleus of position players to build a new iteration of the club around with pre-arb and early arbitration players like Ernie Clement, Bowden Francis, and Will Wagner helping to further build out that foundation.

With nearly two full seasons until Gausman, Springer, and Varsho depart for free agency, it’s not entirely clear what the Jays’ needs will look like by the time that comes around. Toronto’s impending losses of Bassitt, Scherzer, and Green come November will surely need to be addressed, but most teams need pitching every winter and replacing those players should be fairly straightforward. With Guerrero signed, that leaves the most pertinent question facing Toronto at this point as what to do with shortstop Bo Bichette. The 27-year-old was a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport when he came up to the majors back in 2019 and has spent most of his career paired with Guerrero as one of the club’s two up-and-coming stars.

While Bichette has never had the MVP-caliber campaigns Guerrero posted during the 2021 and ’24 seasons, the hype surrounding him has largely been justified by his body of work in the majors. In 46 games down the stretch in 2019 after a mid-season call-up, Bichette made a big impression by slashing .311/.358/.571 with a 143 wRC+ and 11 homers in just 212 plate appearances. A 29-game stint with Toronto during the shortened 2020 season saw him come down to Earth just a bit as he posted a 120 wRC+, but that level of production proved to be very sustainable for Bichette as his first full three seasons saw him slash .298/.339/.476 with a 125 wRC+ and 13.6 fWAR.

From 2021 to ’23, Bichette was sandwiched between Yordan Alvarez and Sean Murphy on the fWAR leaderboard, good for 22nd in baseball, and his 125 wRC+ allowed him to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with top infielders like Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. Between those strong numbers and his relative youth, Bichette seemed certain to be ticketed for a large payday with the only question being whether it would come in Toronto or elsewhere. Unfortunately, the 2024 season threw all of that completely off the rails. Not only was Bichette limited to just 81 games last year due to multiple calf strains and surgery on his middle finger, but he also struggled badly in the games he was healthy enough to partake in. In 336 trips to the plate last year, Bichette slashed just .225/.277/.322 (71 wRC+).

A look under the hood reveals that Bichette’s strikeout and walk rates were both as good as they’d ever been last year, but he was completely sapped of his power. He hit just four home runs after regularly flashing 25-to-30 homer power in previous years. His .303 xwOBA suggested that he was getting somewhat unlucky in terms of batted ball luck, and that likely contributed to a career-worst .269 BABIP. While a batting average closer to his xBA of .255 would have surely helped his overall production look a bit more robust, the expected numbers aren’t all that kind in the power department. His xSLG was just .375, which while better than his actual production last season, would’ve been well below average if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. That’s in large part thanks to a massive drop-off in barrel rate. Bichette barreled up just 4.4% of his batted balls last year, less than half of his career norm across the rest of his career.

A mediocre defender at shortstop even in his best years, Bichette’s value is so tied to his bat that last season’s struggles made it difficult to imagine him finding the star-level contract in free agency without a big bounceback in the 2025 campaign. Despite both Bichette himself and the Blue Jays as a whole failing to meet expectations last year, Toronto opted not to trade him ahead of his final year under team control, betting on him to regain his form this season. There’s still a long way to go in this season, but the early returns are looking good on that decision. Bichette’s .277/.333/.362 (103 wRC+) slash line entering play today is still pedestrian but nonetheless a big improvement over last year, and more importantly he’s resumed hitting the ball with authority (7.3% barrel rate, 46.3% Hard-Hit rate) in a way that mostly aligns with his career norms.

While it’s certainly good news for both Bichette and the Blue Jays that the shortstop appears to be back to posting quality offensive numbers, what that means for his future is uncertain. There’s some similarities to Cody Bellinger in Bichette’s profile as a free agent, as the two players share All-Star caliber upside as bat-first options at a premium defensive position that could make them very attractive in free agency, but pair that upside with worrisome injury-riddled campaigns where they looked like below-replacement level talents. During the 2023-24 offseason, Bellinger was limited to a short-term deal by the market, though his three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs afforded him a healthy AAV and multiple opt-out opportunities. Bellinger was marketing his age-28 season that winter just like Bichette would be come November, though a distinct lack of high-end positional talent in free agency this winter (outside of star outfielder Kyle Tucker) could allow Bichette to find a stronger market.

Still, that market uncertainty could be part of why the Jays have not broached the possibility of an extension with their shortstop. Bichette told reporters back in February that the sides hadn’t had talks, and he reiterated to Hazel Mae of Sportsnet yesterday that “nothing’s on the table”  for him from the Blue Jays in terms of an extension. Bichette has made it clear he’d like to remain in Toronto, citing a desire to play for a single organization throughout his entire career and continue his partnership with Guerrero. If Bichette proves himself healthy and effective again this year, that could make plenty of sense for a Blue Jays club that will need more offensive firepower than it got last year even after adding Santander to the mix. On the other hand, the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of $200MM for 2026 (per RosterResource) before even considering arbitration-level contracts for players like Varsho and Clement.

That could make adding another big salary to the books difficult for the Blue Jays to stomach, and the club has seemingly set itself up to better stomach the loss of Bichette by trading for Gimenez. The 26-year-old has played the vast majority of his big league games at second base, but he has shortstop experience and is regarded as perhaps the best defensive second baseman in the entire sport, suggesting he should have little trouble sliding over to the left side of the infield. Given Bichette’s aforementioned mediocre defense at short, Gimenez could actually prove to be an upgrade at the position in terms of his glove.

That would then mean needing to replace Gimenez at second base and Bichette’s bat in the lineup, however. A big season from Wagner this year could make that possible to do internally. Other internal options who could help out include Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez. In terms of external options, this coming offseason has infielders like Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim, Alex Bregman and Trevor Story as possibilities, depending on some opt-out decisions.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation in Toronto will play out? Will Bichette be allowed to hit free agency? And, if so, will he be playing in Toronto or elsewhere come Opening Day 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Automated Ball-Strike System In MLB

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After years of fans and people around the game alike advocating for it, the automated ball-strike system was implemented in big league Spring Training this year. That was widely believed to portend its arrival in the majors, which MLB commissioner Rob Manfred all but confirmed in an interview published yesterday where he suggested that the system could be in regular season games as soon as the 2026 season, pending approval from the MLBPA. With that being said, Manfred suggested that the details of how ABS is implemented into the majors could wind up being collectively bargained. If that’s the case, its implementation could be delayed until after the upcoming CBA negotiations following the 2026 season.

During Spring Training, a challenge system was used not unlike the one already utilized in the majors for instant replay on the bases. Each team started the game with two challenges available to them, and would retain their challenge after using it successfully or lose it after using it incorrectly. As noted by Ronald Blum of the Associated Press just before Opening Day, teams challenged 2.6% of called pitches during the spring with just over four challenges per game and a success rate of 52.2% overall. If those numbers were to hold, that would mean the ABS challenge system overturns just two ball-strike calls in the average regular season game.

While official reports on the accuracy of ball-strike calls from MLB umpires are not available, a report published by Boston University’s Mark T. Williams that looked at the issue back in 2019 using data from the 2018 campaign suggested that MLB umpires made 14 incorrect ball-strike calls per game that year. If that figure holds true into today, that would mean that the challenge system overturns less than 15% of incorrect ball-strike calls made. What’s more, Williams’s report suggests that umpires tend to make more mistakes in certain situations, such as calling true balls as strikes in two-strike counts. Despite that, there’s nothing in Blum’s data to suggest that more calls got overturned in those sorts of key situations than usual. While teams challenged 6.9% of full count calls, just 44% of those challenges were correct.

Given the relative lack of impact felt by the presence of the challenge system this spring, it’s easy to wonder if perhaps using a fully automated system that entirely removes umpire discretion from the equation would be preferable. It’s hard to dispute that it would lead to more accurately called games, which could have a far more significant impact on outcomes than the challenge system had during Spring Training. Manfred suggested in yesterday’s interview that umpires themselves would actually prefer a fully automated system to the challenge system currently being used, perhaps because it would avoid putting a spotlight on their mistakes.

On the other hand, it’s open for debate whether or not taking ABS to that level would be truly preferable. Incorrect calls aren’t necessarily innately bad; after all, fans, players, managers, and umpires have worked with a somewhat nebulous definition of the strike zone since the advent of baseball itself. What any individual thinks of as the strike zone is unlikely to be perfectly identical to the zone used in ABS, and that’s supported by the fact that nearly half of challenges made to umpire calls wound up being incorrect. That suggests players aren’t always more in tune with what the true strike zone looks like than umpires are, and a move to fully automated ball-strike calls could be a jarring adjustment for both pitchers and hitters as they adapt to a more accurate but wildly unfamiliar strike zone.

That could be part of why the players, according to Manfred, prefer a challenge system to fully automated ball-strike calls. Another factor in the players’ preference for a challenge system could be how full ABS would change the catcher position. Pitch framing has long been a key aspect of catcher defense behind the plate, and it’s become even more focused upon over the past decade. Players with elite framing skills like Jeff Mathis and Austin Hedges have managed to make careers out of their ability to steal strikes for their pitchers over the years, but a fully automated strike zone cannot be influenced by pitch framing.

A challenge system, meanwhile, still allows them to use their framing prowess to convince umpires (as well as a hitter considering a challenge) that a true ball was a strike. It even adds another level of intrigue to the catcher position, as Blum notes that catchers had the highest success rate when challenging ball-strike calls this spring. Catchers successfully overturned 56% of challenged ball-strike calls, compared to exactly 50% for hitters and just 41% for pitchers. Given the wide disparity between catchers and pitchers in terms of success rate at challenge ball-strike calls, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see most clubs have their catchers handle the majority of ball-strike calls when on defense under a challenge system.

How do MLBTR readers think the implementation of ABS should be handled? Should the league stick with the challenge system used in Spring Training despite its relatively low impact, or go to a fully-automated system despite potential player objections? Or perhaps you believe that ABS shouldn’t be used in the majors at all? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Do Season-Opening Streaks Carry Extra Weight?

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MLB’s regular season is officially underway, and clubs are already in the thick of the race to the postseason. One of the biggest storylines of the season so far has surrounded three teams that have gone streaking to open the year. The Dodgers (8-0) and Padres (7-0) have both yet to lose a game, while the Braves (0-7) have yet to win after opening the season against those two clubs. Those streaks have led to all three clubs getting plenty of attention, particularly the Dodgers as they became the first team in MLB history to follow up a World Series championship by starting the next season with eight straight wins.

Perhaps even more focus has been placed on Atlanta, however, as the club was widely expected entering the season to be a top contender for not only the NL East, but also the World Series this year. Though the club finished second to the Phillies in a recent MLBTR poll about who would win the division this year, Atlanta received 32% of the vote, nearly double the third-place Mets’ 18% figure. The playoff odds at Fangraphs told an even rosier story, as the club was given a 93.2% chance to make the playoffs prior to the season beginning, as well as a 63.7% chance at winning the division and a 15.7% chance at a World Series championship that was second only to the Dodgers themselves.

The club’s 0-7 start has caused those odds to plummet, however, as Fangraphs now affords the Braves just a 70.5% chance at making the postseason, with a 32.6% chance at winning the division and a 9.1% chance to win the World Series. It’s a steep drop for just one week of games, and by contrast the Padres have seen their projected fortunes improve just as much, going from a 30.6% chance to make the postseason heading into Opening Day all the way up to a 54.4% chance entering play today. Even the pessimistic playoff odds the Braves are facing don’t hold a candle to the perception of many fans and media members, however. Much has been made of the fact that no team in baseball history has recovered from a 0-7 start to make the postseason, and that the 1980 Braves (81-80) and 1983 Astros (85-77) are the only clubs to even finish with a winning record.

With that being said, however, it must be noted that this only applies to teams that began the season with a 0-7 record. Plenty of teams have made the playoffs with seven-game losing streaks on their resumes, particularly in recent years as the postseason has begun to expand. Just last year, the Royals made the playoffs with two separate seven-game losing streaks to their names. The 2017 Dodgers infamously suffered a 1-16 stretch that included an 11-game losing streak before turning things around and making it to Game Seven of the World Series.

Of course, that’s not to say all of the sentiments surrounding these clubs are built on the biases that could surround a small-sample performance. The Dodgers were viewed around the league as the best team in baseball well before the 2025 season began, not only because they won the World Series last year but also because they aggressively improved the club by adding Blake Snell, Tanner Scott, and Roki Sasaki (among others) this winter. Meanwhile, concerns about Atlanta’s path into the postseason this year could be argued to have just as much to do with a deep group of potential playoff teams in the NL, the PED suspension of Jurickson Profar, and shoulder surgery for Reynaldo Lopez as they do the team’s actual record on the field.

It also can’t be entirely dismissed that some streaks have more impact on a club’s future competitiveness than others. Naturally, large swings in the standings are more likely to have a relative impact in the first half of the year than the second half, as they can factor into the decisions club executives make over the summer regarding whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline. That impacts the overall talent level of a club in a way that streaks such as the aforementioned strings of losses suffered by the 2017 Dodgers and 2024 Royals, all of which occurred after that season’s deadline, simply cannot replicate.

Where do MLBTR readers fall on this topic? Are the strings of wins the Dodgers and Padres are presently enjoying and the string of losses in Atlanta more meaningful than they would be if they occurred later in the season instead? Or does the fact that every game counts the same in the standings at the end of the season mean it’s no different than any other streak? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers and Tigers have been voted as the favorites to win their respective divisions. The final division left to cover in this series is the AL East. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

New York Yankees (94-68)

The reigning league champion can never be counted out as a contender for their division, and that’s certainly true when it comes to a franchise with as strong of a history as the Yankees. With that being said, it’s difficult to argue the club is better on paper today than it was a year ago. 2024’s club was largely built around the presence of three superstars: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Gerrit Cole. While Judge is still crushing baseballs in the Bronx as reliably as ever, Soto departed for Queens on a massive $765MM pact over the winter while Cole underwent Tommy John surgery last month and will miss the entire 2025 season. The losses of Soto and Cole are a major blow to the club’s lineup and rotation, and the latter has been further dented by injuries suffered by Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil while the former is exacerbated by the absence of Giancarlo Stanton.

That’s not to say the club has no reasons for optimism, however. All of Stanton, Gil, and Schmidt could return at some point during the first half, with Schmidt in particular likely to be back in the rotation later this month. The addition of star southpaw Max Fried offers the club a suitable stand-in ace for Cole this season even after a somewhat middling debut in pinstripes, while an offensive nucleus of Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. should score plenty of runs even without Soto, especially if Goldschmidt can turn back the clock during his age-37 season. That’s before even mentioning their elite bullpen, which was top three in the AL last year even before this winter’s upgrade from Clay Holmes to Devin Williams in the ninth inning. Even with the loss of Soto and their many early season injuries, the Yankees cannot be ruled out to repeat at the top of the division.

Baltimore Orioles (91-71)

After a second consecutive playoff appearance with zero wins to show for it, some fans in Baltimore are starting to get antsy. New owner David Rubenstein’s first offseason at the helm of the club came with big expectations that the club would step away from the frugality of recent years and commit more strongly to contention, and in some ways that did happen. The club replaced Anthony Santander’s power in the lineup by bringing in Tyler O’Neill on the first multi-year guarantee the club has made since Mike Elias took over baseball operations, and went about upgrading an already-strong offense in other ways by bringing in Gary Sanchez and Ramon Laureano. Considering the Orioles already have a phenomenal offensive nucleus built around players like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser, those upgrades should give them among the most fearsome lineups in the sport.

That aggressiveness in bolstering the offense was not matched on the pitching side of things, however. Staff ace Corbin Burnes was allowed to depart for Arizona, and his replacements in the rotation are a pair of aging veterans in Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. While both are decorated pitchers who could offer strong mid-rotation production, the loss of Burnes puts a great deal of pressure on Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez (the latter of whom is currently on the injured list) to perform in front-of-the-rotation roles. The possible return of Kyle Bradish later this season from UCL surgery should help things, but even that would come with question marks due to a year-long layoff. The bullpen is in better shape, fortunately, with closer Felix Bautista back from his own UCL surgery and Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez among the other late inning options. If the club’s rotation can hold up and avoid further injuries, the Orioles should have as good of a shot as anyone at the AL East crown this year.

Boston Red Sox (81-81)

The AL East club with by far the biggest offseason, the Red Sox made significant splashes this winter when they traded for (and, more recently, extended) ace southpaw Garrett Crochet before bringing in third baseman Alex Bregman on a three-year, opt-out laden deal. Both of those moves are likely to transform last year’s middling club into true contenders, giving Boston an ace-caliber arm ahead of homegrown mid-rotation pieces like Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello (not to mention offseason signing Walker Buehler) while allowing them to kick Rafael Devers’s lackluster glove off of third base and into a DH role. Those additions build on a solid group of talent already in place, with players like Devers, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran standing as likely offensive contributors.

Perhaps even more important than this winter’s additions, however, is the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Kristian Campbell is already in the majors and emerging as a potential early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, with fellow top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer also expected to make their big league debuts at some point this year. All three are consensus top-15 prospects in the sport, with Anthony in particular being rated as the sport’s #1 prospect by a number of services. That sort of high-end prospect talent all arriving in the majors simultaneously is quite rare, and affords the club an exceptionally deep positional mix with plenty of potential impact. With that being said, the club does have one potential Achilles’ heel in the bullpen. After relying on an elite tandem of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to close out games last year, the Red Sox are now banking on a strong return from nearly two years away from the mound for Liam Hendriks and a resurgence from Aroldis Chapman in the late innings. If the club’s strong offense and solid rotation can overcome that questionable bullpen, however, they should be in strong position to return to the top of the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)

After suffering their first losing season in recent memory and selling at the trade deadline last year, the Rays avoided their annual winter of sell-side trades (the Jeffrey Springs deal notwithstanding) and actually made a handful of modest but potentially impactful additions this winter. Arguably the club’s two biggest weaknesses last season were catcher and shortstop, so the additions of Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim figure to go a long way to bring up the floor for the club as they try to get back on track. Jansen and Kim (when the latter returns from the IL) figure to be joined this year by the Rays’ usual suspects on offense with Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and trendy breakout pick Junior Caminero set to serve as anchors of the lineup. Outside of those names, however, the Rays are likely to need big performances from less established pieces like Christopher Morel and Jonathan Aranda in order to make noise in a crowded AL East.

Fortunately, whatever questions the Rays face on offense are largely avoided on the pitching side of things. The temporary loss of ace Shane McClanahan to open the season hurts the rotation, but the club still features a bevy of solid arms that includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, and Shane Baz. Each of those arms have the upside of at least a #4 starter, and Rasmussen in particular has flashed the sort of production that could front a rotation over the years. In the bullpen, meanwhile, the club will once again rely on Pete Fairbanks in the ninth inning with a group of interesting arms including Edwin Uceta and Hunter Bigge also in their bullpen mix. If the club’s offense can get going, it’s not hard to imagine that pitching talent carrying the Rays back into the playoffs this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)

The Blue Jays failed in their offseason bid for Juan Soto, and similarly have seemingly come up short in their efforts to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of his final season of club control. That puts plenty of pressure on the Jays to return from the basement of the AL East and compete in what could be their superstar’s last season in town, and Toronto brass answered that pressure by bringing in some notable reinforcements this winter. Anthony Santander offers the sort of big bat to protect Guerrero in the lineup that the Jays lacked last year, Andres Gimenez should greatly improve the club’s defense, Jeff Hoffman looks like a strong replacement for Jordan Romano in the ninth inning, and Max Scherzer (when he returns from the IL) should offer quality innings to a rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi last summer.

Even with solid additions like those, however, a lot needs to go right for the Jays if they’re going to get to the top of the AL East this year. Perhaps the most important would be a return to form for Bo Bichette, who endured the worst season of his career last year. A lineup featuring Bichette at his best alongside Guerrero and Santander would go a long way to making this club look like a playoff team, as would a resurgence from veteran righty Kevin Gausman, who took a step back from his previous ace-level seasons with the Blue Jays last year. A strong year on offense from franchise catcher Alejandro Kirk and a repeat of Bowden Francis’s excellent rookie campaign could also serve as X-factors that help the club stay competitive this year.

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With all five clubs making a legitimate effort to compete this year, who will come out on top? Will the Yankees reign supreme once again despite their losses, or will they be successfully challenged by the young, up-and-coming Orioles despite a middling rotation? Can the Red Sox ride their splashy signings and top prospects to the postseason, or will a team like the Rays or even the Blue Jays surprise? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers were voted as the most likely AL West winner. Next up is a look at the AL Central. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Cleveland Guardians (92-69)

The Guardians surprised the baseball world by not only storming back to the top of the AL Central in Stephen Vogt’s first year replacing Terry Francona as manager in Cleveland, but by pushing past the Astros to secure a playoff bye alongside the Yankees. Though the club ultimately fell to New York in the ALCS, their strong showing inspired plenty of optimism about the club’s future. The offseason saw some major changes come to the organization as Andres Gimenez departed the club in a series of moves that ultimately brought back righty Luis Ortiz. The addition of Ortiz should help bolster a rotation that was the club’s clear weakness last year, as should getting more out of Shane Bieber after he returned to the club in free agency over the offseason.

Aside from that stronger rotation mix and the aforementioned loss of Gimenez, the 2025 Guardians don’t look much different than the 2024 club. Josh Naylor departed via trade but was swiftly replaced with Carlos Santana in his third stint with the club, and the club swapped Tyler Freeman for Nolan Jones just before Opening Day. Meanwhile, Jakob Junis and Paul Sewald add depth to a bullpen that was already baseball’s best last season. A stronger rotation mix should help the Guardians stay at the top of the AL Central this year, though they’ll need strong performances from players like Jones, Brayan Rocchio, and Kyle Manzardo in order to match last year’s output in the lineup without Naylor’s bat and Gimenez’s glove in the fold.

Kansas City Royals (86-76)

After making it back to the playoffs for the first time since their World Series championship in 2015, the Royals stayed busy in the offseason. They retained their strong front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha in the rotation while trading fourth starter Brady Singer to the Reds to land Jonathan India, who has split time between left field and third base for the club so far this year. Meanwhile, the Royals made a splash at the back of their bullpen by signing closer Carlos Estevez to handle the ninth inning, bolstering a relief group that was a big source of frustration last year. Overall, the pitching staff seems to be in an even better place than 2024 with Singer set to be replaced in the rotation by some combination of Kris Bubic, who excelled in a short stint with the bullpen last year, the eventual return of Kyle Wright from the injured list.

Less certain is how the club will stack up on offense. India was the club’s only major addition to the lineup, though swinging a trade for Mark Canha just before Opening Day should raise the floor offensively and bringing in Cavan Biggio could also improve the club’s depth. India and Canha should help to balance out a lineup that was far too reliant on Bobby Witt Jr. last year. Even so, the club will either need Witt to repeat his otherworldly production or significant steps forward from players like MJ Melendez and Maikel Franco if they’re going to be even an average offense in 2025, given that last year’s club managed a wRC+ of just 96. Will the club’s modest improvements be enough to take control of the Central?

Detroit Tigers (86-76)

As is a theme throughout the AL Central, the Tigers were relatively quiet this winter. The lineup is largely unchanged from last year, with second baseman Gleyber Torres and outfielder Manuel Margot standing as the club’s only additions of significance. The duo’s right-handed bats should help to balance out a Tigers lineup that leans heavily to the left, but the more significant additions to the Tigers this year are in the rotation. The return of Jack Flaherty after the club traded him to the Dodgers over the summer should give the club an impressive prospective playoff rotation, with Flaherty joining reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, 2024 breakout righty Reese Olson, and perhaps top prospect Jackson Jobe to make what could rival the Royals for the division’s best rotation. Alex Cobb, meanwhile, should add some veteran depth to the rotation and has been extremely effective when healthy in recent years.

Impressive as the rotation mix might be, the Tigers’ lackluster offensive additions mean a lot will need to go right for the club in the lineup if they’re going to make it back to October. Strong, healthy seasons from Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter will be a must, and steps forward from youngsters like Colt Keith and the ever-streaky Spencer Torkelson would go a long way to getting the club back to the postseason. As for the club’s bullpen, little changed outside of the addition of right-hander Tommy Kahnle, so the club will once again need strong performances from pieces like Tyler Holton and Will Vest in 2025. Will all of that be enough to overcome the Royals and Guardians in 2025?

Minnesota Twins (82-80)

After a disappointing season where the club appeared poised to make the postseason before collapsing in dramatic fashion down the stretch, the Twins are more or less running back the same club they put forward in 2024. Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, and Caleb Thielbar all departed the club with reasonable facsimiles of their expected production entering the door in their place when the club signed Ty France, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe. Aside from that trio of modest additions to replace outgoing free agents, the Twins did very little to augment the club this winter. That’s not to say another weak season should be expected, however. On paper, the Twins have long been the most talented club in the AL Central and that figures to once again be the case in 2025.

Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton all have star potential when healthy, though Lewis has already opened the season on the injured list. Brooks Lee (also on the IL) and Matt Wallner provide plenty of upside to the club’s lineup, and steady contributors like Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should help make for a strong offensive nucleus. The rotation, meanwhile, has a solid front three in the form of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober to go along with a handful of interesting back-end options like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax make for a frightening combo at the back of the bullpen, leaving the club without any clear holes. With that being said, health and consistency have always been difficult to come by in Minnesota despite a deep and talented group of players. Will they be able to put it all together in 2025?

Chicago White Sox (41-121)

After the worst season in MLB history, the White Sox did little to inspire optimism about the 2025 season. Arguably, the club is weaker on paper than it was last year after losing Erick Fedde at the trade deadline and Garrett Crochet over the offseason. Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery should arrive sometime this year to pick up the slack, and a fully healthy and productive season from Luis Robert Jr. would go a long way to getting the White Sox away from that 120-loss threshold. Even with those potential upsides, however, it would be perhaps the most shocking turnaround in baseball history if this club managed to bring a division title back to the south side of Chicago in 2025.

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The offseason didn’t see any status-quo-altering changes in the AL Central. While the three postseason clubs from last year all made at least some modest additions, the story of the division is not all that dissimilar from 2025. After a 92-win season in 2025, the Guardians’ pitching additions seem likely to be enough to make them a potential favorite as long as Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan continue to play up to lofty expectations, though the additions Detroit and Kansas City made can’t be ignored. The Twins lurk in the background, meanwhile, even after a quiet offseason thanks to their strong in-house group of talent. With four of the division’s five clubs likely to be in the mix for the AL Central crown once again, who do you think is most likely to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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After Detroit surprised the baseball world by sneaking into the playoffs off the back of a late-season surge and wound up making it within a game of the ALCS, the club entered the offseason looking to assert itself as a contender but fell short in many of its most significant pursuits.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $67.8MM
Total spending: $77.8MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Fans in Detroit and many around the game believed that 2024's surprise success would spur the Tigers to act more aggressively this winter than they had during president of baseball operations Scott Harris's previous seasons at the helm. Those expectations made plenty of sense on paper. After all, Detroit had just made the postseason for the first time since 2014 amid a season where they enjoyed a breakout from superstar southpaw Tarik Skubal. He asserted himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball, winning both the Cy Young award and the Triple Crown in the American League, but now has just two seasons remaining before he's scheduled to reach free agency.

When the final years of team control over a breakout superstar were combined with an excellent season from Riley Greene, positive signs from other foundational youngsters like Colt Keith and Reese Olson, and a barren payroll that featured less than $40MM in guaranteed salary commitments for 2025, it seemed clear that this offseason was as good of an opportunity as the Tigers could expect to push their chips in and build a World Series contender. That's not how the 2024-25 offseason panned out for the club, however. While the Tigers were involved on at least some level with a number of potentially impactful players on the market, the vast majority of those efforts to acquire impact talent did not pan out.

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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays made some notable trades and signings this offseason but so much focus was on the stadium drama, as hurricanes blew in and threw the entire trajectory of the franchise off course.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $21.5MM
Total spending: $37.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Rays played their final game of the 2024 season on September 29. A 3-1 loss to the Red Sox sealed a losing record of 80-82. It was a relative disappointment, the club's first time under .500 since 2017. In typical Rays fashion, they made the most of it. At the deadline, they traded away some players who were getting more expensive and closer to free agency, such as Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes and Jason Adam.

Going into the winter, there was some decent stuff in place for the future. The long-term payroll was fairly clean and the farm system was in healthy shape. The big league roster seemed to be in decent position to bounce back in 2025, thanks in large part to the return of several pitchers who were injured in 2024.

The club also had a deal in place with local government agencies to fund a new stadium. The plan was to play at Tropicana Field through 2027, with the Trop to be knocked down and replaced by a new ballpark/commercial real estate complex by 2028.

But barely a week later, the whole stadium situation plan was altered. In late September and early October, Hurricanes Helene and Milton both passed through the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The Trop sustained significant damage, particularly from Milton on October 9. Most notably, the roof was essentially gone. This was a big problem because the Trop had no drainage system in place, making it suddenly unusable.

At that time, it wasn't known exactly what would happen next. But in the following months, the club's short-term and long-term stadium plans would be shifted dramatically. They are going to play their 2025 homes games in a minor league park. They could be back in the Trop next year, but that's not clear. The deal for the new stadium is now dead and relocation talk has retaken a seat at the table.

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Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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After finishing 2024 with an 81-81 record, the Red Sox rose from their lengthy slumber to once again assert themselves as a force in the offseason market with substantial upgrades all around the roster. Will it be enough to get back to the postseason?

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $79.55MM
Total spending: $172.3MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

After four straight seasons without a playoff berth, the Red Sox entered the winter with plenty of positive signs. Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Richard Fitts looked like an enviable nucleus of young rotation talent under team control, while Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu enjoyed breakout seasons in the outfield. With the best young talent, including baseball's #1 prospect Roman Anthony, and three other top-50 talents in Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, and Kyle Teel knocking on the door, it seemed clear that the time was now for the club to push its chips in and force open a new competitive window.

While there was some skepticism about the club's intentions at the outset of the offseason, particularly after last winter's "full-throttle" comments led to a quiet offseason that brought little new talent into the fold, the club quickly showed itself to be a legitimate threat to spend when it emerged as a surprise finalist for the services of Juan Soto alongside expected contenders like the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. The Red Sox ultimately fell short of that pursuit, finishing alongside Toronto ahead of L.A. but behind the two New York teams. Even as Soto landed in Queens, however, Boston's apparent willingness to give out a contract in the range of $700MM made clear they were serious about improving this winter.

In the aftermath of Soto signing elsewhere, the Red Sox had two main priorities to address: adding a big right-handed bat to the lineup, and bringing in an ace (preferably one that throws left-handed) to lead their young but talented pitching staff. Initial attempts to bring in players like Max Fried (who eventually signed in the Bronx) and Teoscar Hernandez (who eventually returned to the Dodgers) fell apart, but the Red Sox didn't let the league's biggest spenders nabbing their top targets stop them from addressing their needs in a big way. During the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox echoed the Chris Sale trade by swinging a blockbuster with the White Sox that saw them surrender a bevy of talented prospects in exchange for an extremely talented southpaw.

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