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MLBTR Poll: Masahiro Tanaka’s Future

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Whether Angels left fielder Justin Upton opts out of his contract will serve as one of the most intriguing storylines during the early part of Major League Baseball’s upcoming offseason. The same opt-out question applies to Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who may have an easier decision than Upton. While Upton has four years and $88.5MM left on his contract, Tanaka’s remaining pact consists of fewer years and dollars (three and $67MM, respectively). But that doesn’t necessarily make it a slam-dunk call for Tanaka, who, unlike Upton, has had a bit of a rocky season in what could amount to a platform year.

Masahiro Tanaka

Tanaka, who emigrated from Japan on a seven-year, $155MM agreement in 2014, emerged as a front-end starter in the Bronx from the get-go and entered 2017 off a strong three-season stretch. Over 75 starts and 490 innings, the splitter-loving Tanaka logged a 3.12 ERA with 8.17 K/9 against 1.54 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate. The only full-time American League starters to post a better ERA during that span were Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez and Garrett Richards, while just nine outdid Tanaka’s combined 10.0 fWAR.

Judging solely on fWAR (2.3), Tanaka is having another good season, though the 28-year-old trails 41 other major league starters in that category. Meanwhile, among the 112 hurlers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year, Tanaka is a below-average 73rd in ERA (4.54, tied with fellow opt-out candidate Johnny Cueto).

Fortunately for Tanaka, the run prevention problems he has had in 2017 aren’t nearly as dire as they appear. A bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (20 percent, up from 14.1 percent over the previous three years) is the main culprit, but Tanaka has only yielded eight long balls in 78 innings dating back to June 17, when his ERA sat at 6.34 and his HR total was already at 21 through 76 1/3 frames. Since then, Tanaka has notched nine quality starts in 12 outings – including a gem against the Red Sox on Saturday – pitched to a 2.77 ERA and racked up 82 strikeouts against 15 walks. Those are ace-like numbers, and a newfound reliance on his slider is among the reasons for Tanaka’s summer success, as FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris explained Friday.

Thanks in part to his adeptness over the past month-plus, Tanaka ranks 13th among starters this season in strikeout-walk percentage (18.7), 13th in infield fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and 15th in the grounder department (49.3 percent). Those are all encouraging signs, clearly, as is the fact that his velocity looks normal. Tanaka should hit the 30-start mark for the second straight year, too, which is especially positive for someone who hasn’t been the picture of durability during his career. He combined for 44 starts in his first two seasons and has dealt with a laundry list of arm issues over the years, the most serious of which being a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Tanaka has managed to pitch through the UCL tear over the past couple seasons, though teams could be wary of it in free agency.  As such, it’s something Tanaka’s going to have to consider when choosing whether to vacate the remainder of his contract.

Should he opt out, Tanaka figures to reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees before officially reaching free agency, which could also negatively affect his market to some degree.  Still, along with a pair of over-30 hurlers in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, Tanaka would be among the most sought-after starters available. And in a league that has seen starters with more questionable track records (Rich Hill, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, to name a few) rake in sizable paydays in recent winters, it’s reasonable to guess Tanaka will indeed venture to the open market in hopes of outdoing the $67MM he’d make by sticking with his current deal.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Will Justin Upton Opt Out?

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Angels outfielder Justin Upton — if that sounds odd, you might want to click this link — faces an interesting decision after the end of the season. He already has the right to $88.5MM in guaranteed salary for the next four seasons, but can choose instead to opt out of the contract and take his talents onto the open market once again.

Entering the season, the latter course seemed less than likely. After all, Upton managed only a .246/.310/.465 batting line in 2016, his worst-ever full-season batting line. Though he did swat 31 home runs, matching a personal best, Upton was at or near career-worst levels in strikeouts (28.6%) and walks (8.0%). As the second consecutive year in which his output with the bat had declined, there was cause for some concern.

Needless to say, though, Upton has turned things around thus far in 2017. He’s currently slashing .279/.362/.542 and has already knocked 28 balls out of the yard through 520 trips to the plate. Though his strikeouts haven’t dipped, he’s now walking at an 11.0% clip that’s better than his career average, all while sporting a personal-high 44.1% hard-hit rate. And Upton has rated as a quality performer with the glove out in left field.

That’s not where Upton’s case for opting out ends, however. While he is now in his 11th season in the majors — which seems hard to believe — the slugger only just turned 30 a few days ago. And since he has previously received a qualifying offer (and also now has been traded mid-season), he won’t be eligible to receive a QO — meaning there’s no risk of his market being dragged down by draft compensation.

There are plenty of comps that suggest Upton could well out-earn what he already has in hand. On the high side, we have seen several somewhat older outfielders take down nine-figure guarantees: Yoenis Cespedes (four years, $110MM entering age-31 season), Shin-Soo Choo (seven years, $130MM entering age-31 season), and Josh Hamilton (five years, $125MM entering age-32 season) all come to mind. On the lower side, there’s plenty of reason to think that Upton can beat Dexter Fowler’s five-year, $82.5MM deal or the $88MM over four years that Hanley Ramirez received. Of course, Upton himself secured a $132.75MM guarantee before the 2016 season; though he was two years younger, he also was coming off of a less-impressive campaign.

That said, there’s no denying that there’s risk in casting himself back into free agency. Upton may not find it worth his while if he and his agents do not anticipate offers that are all that much more significant. It’s somewhat difficult to forecast the market for power hitters given the recent surge in offense (and home runs, in particular). Last year, several big bats came in somewhat under expectations; this fall, there’ll be competition (especially former teammate J.D. Martinez, but also potentially including older players and possible trade targets).

There’s another month left on the year, and that could matter, too. Upton will have to stay healthy and remain at least mostly productive to have the best potential free-agent case. He might also conceivably just end up deciding he feels comfortable in his new digs. But it’s a good time for a prediction: do you think Upton will opt out? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Sonny Gray Trade

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We asked you yesterday to grade the Yu Darvish swap, and today we’ll do the same thing with the other major deadline-day trade: the deal that sent righty Sonny Gray from the Athletics to the Yankees.

Unlike Darvish, the Yanks’ newest hurler can be controlled for an additional two seasons via arbitration. That contract status better lined up with New York’s needs looking forward while also allowing the team to make a significant near-term addition, installing a pitcher who has thrown quite well in 2017. Indeed, by measure of FIP and xFIP, Gray has actually been a bit better than his 3.43 ERA would suggest. While long-term durability questions continue to be aired, the 27-year-old has looked strong since opening the year on the DL.

On the A’s side of the deal, too, health is more a question than is talent. Indeed, two of the three youngsters in the swap — outfielder Dustin Fowler and righty James Kaprielian — are both in the midst of rehabbing very significant injuries. While Jorge Mateo is likely viewed as the headlining piece by Oakland, the club is clearly hoping the other two players will not only return to full health, but will quickly regain their previous trajectory.

So, how do you grade this deal from the perspective of the Yankees? Was it worth giving up this much talent or does Gray stand too great a chance of returning to his injury-riddled, ineffective 2016 form? (Link for app users.)

And how do you feel the A’s did in taking this package instead of others … or rather than holding onto Gray until the fall? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade

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Yesterday’s last-minute Yu Darvish swap represented perhaps the most dramatic move of deadline day for a host of reasons. It not only broke after the deadline itself, but represented a major shift for the Rangers and left the Dodgers with another ace on a loaded pitching staff. While the trade doesn’t really impact the picture in the NL West — the Dodgers were seemingly running away with things without him — it could well change the complexion of the postseason.

The rights to employ Darvish over the next few months — but, mostly, to have him for the NLDS (and, the Dodgers hope, beyond) — came at a cost. Just how much that’ll sting is debatable and perhaps also largely remains to be seen. While the Dodgers held onto the prospects they evidently cherish most (Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler), they gave up an intriguing, near-majors hitter in Willie Calhoun while also sacrificing two high-upside youngsters in A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis.

It doesn’t make much sense to approach a deal like this by contemplating which side “won;” after all, they were both in very different positions. The Rangers essentially decided they did not need Darvish through the end of his contract, since a postseason run was unlikely. And the Dodgers took quite the opposite position, with a willingness to sacrifice pre-MLB talent to add the established hurler.

Instead, given the organizations’ varied approaches, it seems worth polling the MLBTR readership for grades on the deal from the perspective of each side. First, the Rangers: do you think the return will prove significant enough to justify the lessened possibility of a Wild Card, any (perhaps minimal) reduction in the potential to re-sign Darvish, and the draft compensation (a choice at the end of the second round) that would have accrued had Darvish declined a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere? (Link for app users.)

And for the Dodgers … was it worth giving up Calhoun and more for a starter on a team loaded with them? Ought these or other players have been used to acquire a better left-handed relievers than those (Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani) that were acquired? Etc. (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Best Rental Starter

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Let’s get this out of the way: Yu Darvish will be the best rental arm available, if he is marketed. But all indications are the Rangers won’t do that, barring a total collapse over the next ten days.

Assuming that Darvish isn’t within reach, teams with interest in renting a rotation piece will be looking at a decidedly less accomplished group of starters. (And no, I don’t consider Johnny Cueto a pure rental, even if he is still likely to opt out of his contract.) Here are the best such hurlers that seem reasonably likely to be available (in alphabetical order). Which do you think is the top target?

  • Trevor Cahill, Padres: Like the other members of the Friars’ staff, the 29-year-old is quite affordable. He’s also sitting on a 3.14 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through ten starts on the year, though he did miss time due to injury.
  • Jhoulys Chacin, Padres: Chacin has been rather effective, with a 4.33 ERA thus far, and has also racked up 108 frames. He is also throwing as hard as ever with a 92 mph average fastball.
  • Marco Estrada, Blue Jays: The results have been terrible, but Estrada has struck out 9.9 opposing hitters per nine and could represent quite an intriguing turnaround candidate.
  • Scott Feldman, Reds: He’s hurt now, but had been quietly providing solid innings, as he has for most of his career. If he’s able to bounce back quickly from the DL, Feldman could be valued for his steadiness.
  • Jaime Garcia, Braves: He’s earning a healthy $12MM salary, and has had his ups and downs, but has been quite good at times in the not-so-distant past.
  • Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: Hellickson was failing to get strikeouts for much of the year, but has ramped things up of late. He also has allowed 11 earned in his past 30 1/3 innings.
  • Derek Holland, White Sox: It’s tough to sugarcoat Holland’s struggles since the calendar flipped to June, but he was carrying a 2.37 ERA to that point and has still mixed in some productive outings since.
  • Francisco Liriano, Blue Jays: Likewise, Liriano has not produced results. But he’s still bringing 93 from the left side and can miss bats; perhaps an organization with some ideas on how to get him back to form could take a shot on the enigmatic southpaw.

Which pitcher do you prefer? (Link for mobile users.)

MLBTR Poll: Left-Handed Reliever Trade Candidates

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As I work to complete the latest installation in our top 50 trade deadline candidate series, it occurred to me just how many really good pen lefties could be available this summer. There aren’t many clubs that couldn’t stand to add a power southpaw to the back of the bullpen, so there ought to be significant demand. But might the presence of so many options also help tamp down prices a bit?

As we learned last year, teams will pay a premium at the deadline for truly premium relief arms. But it’s a more debatable group this time around, with Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller locked in with their current organizations.

So, who is the best lefty relief trade target out there? We’ll limit the options to teams that are clearly in a selling position at this point. (That means no Zach Britton; though he’s back from the DL today, his availability seems quite speculative.) Here are my nominees (in alphabetical order):

  • Jerry Blevins, Mets ($5.5MM salary with $7MM club option): The walks to righties have piled up, but Blevins is drawing loads of swings and misses (a career-high 13.3%) and he’s death to lefties.
  • Ryan Buchter, Padres (league minimum salary; four arb years remaining): Since joining the Friars, Buchter has a 2.96 ERA with 11.1 K/9. Sure, he’s allowed 4.4 BB/9 in that span and has allowed a few dingers this year — plus, he’s already 30 — but he has also made strides in his whiff rate (now 11.7%) since his breakout 2016.
  • Tony Cingrani, Reds ($1.825MM salary; two arb years remaining): Now that he’s back from an oblique strain, it’s time to take notice. Cingrani owns a 2.30 ERA with 15 strikeouts and three walks over his 15 2/3 frames on the year. He’s pumping 95 and generating a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, and whilehehas been dinger-prone that may be an aberration. Several other names on this list have boosted their trade value after taking some time to figure it out; perhaps the 28-year-old offers a similar opportunity.
  • Sean Doolittle, Athletics ($2.6MM salary; three option years remaining): Shoulder issues continue to dog Doolittle, but the 30-year-old is borderline ridiculous when healthy. This year, he has compiled 23 strikeouts against just two walks in his 16 1/3 innings. And the highly advantageous contract also helps offset the injury questions.
  • Brad Hand, Padres ($1.375MM salary; two arb years remaining): Hand has only continued to bloom in San Diego. In a hefty 44 2/3 innings this year, he has produce 2.42 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 along with a 50.5% groundball rate.
  • Tony Watson, Pirates ($5.6MM salary): The 32-year-old hasn’t been himself this year, but he’s a rental player who comes with a very impressive prior track record. While his velocity has trailed off somewhat over the years, he’s still throwing a 93.5 mph heater and getting as many swings and misses as ever. If teams believe his spike in BABIP and home runs will reverse, Watson could be seen as a prime buy-low candidate.
  • Justin Wilson, Tigers ($2.7MM salary; one arb year remaining): He’s hitting his stride at an opportune time for Detroit. Over 31 2/3 innings this year, Wilson caries a 2.56 ERA with 13.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He’s bringing 96-97 mph heat and sporting a career-high 14.5% swinging-strike rate.

Who’s your preferred trade target? (Mobile link.)

Poll: Who Will Be The No. 1 Overall Draft Pick?

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Major League Baseball’s annual amateur draft kicks off tonight at 7pm ET, and the Twins will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since selecting local catcher out of St. Paul’s Cretin-Derham Hall high school named Joe Mauer back in 2001. While some draft classes have a very clear top overall pick (e.g. Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg), that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. There have been rumors circulating about who the Twins will select No. 1 overall tonight for months, now, and the top three names on the board, at the very least, seem to be clear….

  • Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, Calif.): Greene has been the most talked-about player in the draft class for the past year. A two-way high school star that has already graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and generated awe with a fastball that has reached 102 mph, Greene sits atop the draft rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN. However, while he has the highest upside in the class, there’s also never been a high school right-hander selected No. 1 overall in the draft, and the risks associated with a prep pitcher are greater than those associated with a college player or even a fellow high school pitcher. Most mock drafts from experts have had the Twins passing on Greene, though he’s undoubtedly a tempting option for the new-look Minnesota front office.
  • Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt: Wright ranks first on Fangraphs’ list of draft prospects, just edging out Greene for that top spot. Over the past month, he’s been the most oft-connected name to the Twins, with most draft experts and scouting reports touting him as the best combination of ceiling and certainty. Armed with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and can reach 97 mph, Wright also has solid control and three secondary offerings that scouting reports peg as average to above-average. He may not have generated as much fanfare and intrigue as the two-way stars that join him atop the draft class, but Wright is very much in the mix to go first overall.
  • Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville: Scouting reports on McKay are split on whether his best long-term fit is on the mound or as a position player, but there’s a general belief that he could excel either way. Whether a team prefers McKay as a pitcher or a hitter, he seems like a virtual lock to go in the top five of the draft. MLB.com’s report gives him a future 60-grade rating in either role, while ESPN’s Keith Law notes that he showed a bit of fatigue on the mound late in the season. Dedicating himself fully to one discipline under a professional coaching/player development staff could allow McKay to take his game to a new level in either direction. The Twins have been connected to McKay quite often, and while most mocks had Wright going No. 1 overall for the past month, McKay’s name has regained a bit of steam in the past few days.

Readers can check out more details on this year’s draft class by diving into the excellent work from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (free); Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs (free); Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required/recommended); and John Manuel and his team over at Baseball America (subscription required and, once again, recommended).

But, if you already have an opinion on the matter formed, let’s get right to the poll (link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Better Building Block: Aaron Judge Or Michael Conforto?

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If the first couple months of the major league season are any indication, two of baseball’s best hitters are emerging in New York. In the Bronx, there’s Yankees right fielder and American League Rookie of the Year front-runner Aaron Judge; in Queens, Mets outfielder Michael Conforto has rebounded from an underwhelming 2016 to fare even better than he did during his sensational rookie campaign in 2015.

Aaron Judge

Given that Judge looked lost during his first big league stint last season, his success this year has come as a bigger surprise than Conforto’s. The 6-foot-7, 275-pound behemoth did notch four home runs in only 95 plate appearances, but that came with an alarming strikeout rate (44.2 percent) and a horrid .179/.263/.345 batting line. To his credit, though, the 25-year-old Judge worked prior to the season on cutting down his strikeouts and making more contact, as FanGraphs’ Travis Sawchik detailed earlier this month, and the results have been excellent. Everything is trending right for Judge – his strikeout rate is down to a manageable 29 percent; his contact rate has shot up exactly 10 points (from 60.2 percent to 70.2 percent); his walk rate has climbed from 9.8 percent to a terrific 14.2 percent; his out-of-strike zone swing rate has fallen from 33.6 percent to 25.5 percent; and his swinging-strike rate is at 12.4 percent after sitting at 18.1 percent last year.

All of Judge’s gains have helped lead to a .316/.421/.665 line in 183 PAs – not to mention a first-place start for the Yankees – and he currently ranks third in the majors in both wRC+ (192, trailing only Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman) and isolated power (.348, again behind only Trout and Freeman), and second in home runs (15, one behind Trout and tied for second with Bryce Harper). While an unsustainable .391 batting average on balls in play has propped up Judge’s numbers, his production still looks legitimate when factoring in the degree to which he has punished baseballs. Judge’s expected weighted on-base average, which uses exit velocity and launch angle to gauge a hitter’s performance, is sitting at .427 – not far below his actual wOBA of .450 – per Baseball Savant. As great as Judge has been offensively, he has also held his own with the glove, ranking fifth among outfielders in Defensive Runs Saved (seven, behind well-known defensive wizards Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Kevin Kiermaier and Byron Buxton) and a respectable 34th among 70 qualifiers in UZR/150 (2.7).

Michael Conforto

Conforto, meanwhile, hasn’t been on Judge’s level defensively (a combined minus-one DRS and minus-5.2 UZR/150 at all three outfield positions); however, as Judge has been this season, Conforto was outstanding with the glove during his rookie year (nine DRS, 26.5 UZR/150), so there’s reason for hope going forward. Regardless, the bulk of the 24-year-old Conforto’s value will always come from his bat, and the lefty-swinger has done his best to match the right-handed Judge and keep the woebegone Mets afloat this season. Conforto, after hitting a so-so .220/.310/.414 in 348 major league PAs last season and even earning a minor league demotion, is now sitting at .322/.416/.658 with 13 homers and a 13.3 percent walk rate (against a strikeout percentage of 24.9) in 173 trips to the plate this year. He ranks fifth in the majors in ISO (.336) and sixth in wRC+ (178), and while he’s also running a BABIP (.370) that won’t last, his .391 xwOBA (down from a .440 wOBA) is indicative of a superstar-caliber hitter.

While Judge and Conforto have torn apart major league pitching this year, the fact that the two are thriving isn’t completely shocking, as each cracked various top 100 lists as prospects. Now, both sluggers are more than living up to the hype they generated before their major league tenures began. With Judge and Conforto potentially in the midst of becoming franchise cornerstones, I’ll ask you the same question Joel Sherman of the New York Post presented to major league scouts and front office executives earlier this week: Who’s the better long-term piece?

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Which Expected Contenders Will Turn Into Sellers?

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It’s mid-May, so the likelihood of a significant trade going down in the near-term is pretty low. After all, even the clubs buried in the cellars of their respective divisions will be waiting on further results before deciding their course of action this summer.

Still, though, we’re reaching the point where clubs will begin weighing their options to buy or sell at the deadline. And we’ve seen a reasonably significant amount of action, with injuries and performances changing expectations for some players and teams.

While there’s still a lot to be learned, then, it’s a good time to make some predictions. As is usually the case, a variety of teams are off to surprisingly slow starts. Some of these will likely bounce back and at least enter the Wild Card picture. Others will fade out of contention and face tough choices on key veterans.

The question for MLBTR’s readership, then, is which of the teams that entered the year anticipating contention will likely end up being so buried that they’re forced to sell at the trade deadline (if not sooner).

In defining our slate of poll options, there are some necessarily arbitrary lines of demarcation. In this case, I’ve made wholly subjective assessments of which teams entered the year with realistic expectations of contending — meaning, at least remaining in the postseason picture for the vast bulk of the season. And I’ve then drawn the line for consideration at four games below .500 entering today’s action.

Select which of the following teams you expect to end up selling this summer (check all that apply; link for app users):

Poll: The Rangers’ Closer

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After a catastrophic start to the season for Rangers right-hander Sam Dyson, the team’s ninth-inning scene is now among the biggest question marks facing the club’s decision-makers. Like predecessor Shawn Tolleson, Dyson transitioned from largely unheralded setup man to unlikely closer in 2016, racking up 38 saves with a 2.43 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 65.2 percent ground-ball rate. However, Dyson has also seemingly followed Tolleson’s footsteps by imploding early in his second season as a closer; in just 4 1/3 innings this year, the 28-year-old has yielded a staggering 13 earned runs on 14 hits (two homers) and five walks with just two strikeouts. He’s blown three saves and been saddled with three losses for a Rangers team that current sits last in the AL West with a 4-8 record.

A closer change in Arlington seems like a virtual lock, though manager Jeff Banister wouldn’t firmly commit to a new closer yesterday, telling reporters, “We’ll have those discussions,” when asked about a possible change but neglecting to elaborate beyond that (via MLB.com’s Doug Miller). The Rangers do possess several alternative options, so let’s run down the possibilities with a change seeming likely on the horizon…

  • Matt Bush: The resurgence of the former No. 1 overall pick as a shutdown reliever is among the most improbable comebacks in recent MLB history. Bush has been dominant in 66 1/3 innings since making his MLB debut at the age of 30 last season, which came after spending more than three years in prison. With the Rangers, he’s posted a 2.58 ERA with a 69-to-15 K/BB ratio, a ground-ball rate of 42 percent and a fastball that has averaged 97 mph. There’s at least some level of trepidation when it comes to Bush’s shoulder, however, as the right-hander received a cortisone injection in his ailing AC joint last week, though he hasn’t demonstrated any ill effects since returning.
  • Jeremy Jeffress: The former Brewers closer has been generally excellent since establishing himself as a big league bullpen arm back in 2014. Across his past 164 Major League innings, Jeffress has a 2.58 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate approaching 60 percent. He’s typically averaged about 95 mph on his heater, and he racked up 27 saves in 2016 for the Brewers before being shipped to the Rangers alongside Jonathan Lucroy in a summer blockbuster. Like Bush, Jeffress has had his share of off-field issues and spent a month in a rehab facility for alcohol abuse late last season. Looking solely at his on-field performance, he’s a perfectly serviceable option for the Rangers in the ninth inning and comes with the most experience of the team’s internal candidates. Piling up some additional saves would likely inflate Jeffress’ arbitration earnings next year, though the team likely wouldn’t be deterred by that if it kept them in games in 2017.
  • Tony Barnette: A former Diamondbacks minor leaguer that broke out in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Barnette inked a two-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rangers on the heels of a dominant six-year run with NPB’s Yakult Swallows. The 33-year-old has had a slightly rocky start to his 2017 season but was a terrific low-cost addition to the relief corps last season, logging 60 1/3 innings of 2.09 ERA ball with 7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. Installing Barnette as the closer comes with immediate financial implications as well, as his modest $1.75MM salary can rise by as much as $550K based on games finished. He can also see the value of his $4MM club option for the 2017 season increase significantly based on games finished.

The Rangers also have hard-throwing rookie Jose Leclerc, though he comes with just 21 1/3 innings of Major League experience to date. Young right-hander Keone Kela would’ve conceivably been an option to close games in the event of a Dyson meltdown, but he was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock at the end of Spring Training for disciplinary reasons following a clash with some of the team’s more veteran players. Either righty could seemingly be a high-leverage/ninth-inning option down the line, but neither stands out as a likely option at present.

As I did with the Phillies last week, I’ll turn this one over to the general public to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…

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