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Angels Claim Robel Garcia

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The Angels announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed infielder Robel Garcia off waivers from the Mets, who designated him for assignment Monday to clear roster space for trade acquisition Jordan Yamamoto. The Angels’ 40-man roster is now up to 39 players.

The 27-year-old Garcia took an unconventional route (to say the least) to his 2019 Major League debut with the Cubs. The former Indians farmhand was out of affiliated ball from 2014-18 before the Cubs caught a look at him playing for a professional team in Italy. They brought him in on a minor league pact, and Garcia hit the ground running in Double-A. He earned a promotion to Triple-A after just 92 plate appearances and showed off mammoth power between those two levels, slugging 27 long balls in just 388 trips to the plate.

It took Garcia all of 98 games between Double-A and Triple-A to earn a call to the big leagues. In the span of a calendar year, he went from playing in the Italian Baseball League to starting at second base for the Cubs.

The Cubs gave Garcia 80 plate appearances in 2019. He responded with a tepid .208 average and .275 on-base percentage but still slugged .500 thanks to five homers, two doubles and two triples in that short time. Garcia also punched out in 35 of those 80 plate appearances, so while the raw power he possesses is plain to see, there’s some obvious work to be done on his approach at the plate. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Angels can shuttle him between Triple-A and the Majors if he makes it to the end of Spring Training still on the 40-man roster.

Latest On Twins’ Rotation Targets

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Even after signing left-hander J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM contract late last month, the Twins may not be done addressing their rotation. They remain in touch with one of their own free agents, right-hander Jake Odorizzi, and were in attendance for righty Jake Arrieta’s throwing session last Friday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. The Twins will stay in touch with Arrieta, according to Neal.

Odorizzi spent the previous three seasons with the Twins and combined for a 4.11 ERA/4.34 SIERA in 337 innings. In his best season, 2019, Odorizzi earned an All-Star nod and pitched to a 3.51 ERA/4.14 SIERA with a a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate over 159 frames. The Twins then handed Odorizzi a $17.8MM qualifying offer, and he accepted it instead of trying his luck in free agency.

Minnesota was no doubt expecting another quality showing from Odorizzi when it gave him the QO, but it wasn’t to be in 2020. Injuries, including to his back, chest and right middle finger, limited him to 13 2/3 innings of 10-run ball. Odorizzi doesn’t seem to be a free agent at the ideal time, then, but considering his positive track record with the Royals, Rays and Twins, he could still land a solid multiyear payday this offseason. Other than the Twins, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists the Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and perhaps the Mets as teams vying for the soon-to-be 31-year-old.

Either Odorizzi or Arrieta would fill out a Twins rotation that currently has Happ, Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak comprising its top five. Of course, unlike Odorizzi, Arrieta probably isn’t in line for better than a one-year contract. While Arrieta is a former NL Cy Young winner (2015) with the Cubs, he’s now on the market after a pair of disappointing seasons with the Phillies. Arrieta, 35 in March, put up his worst ERA since 2012 last year (5.08) in 44 1/3 innings. He also logged a meager 16.8 percent strikeout percentage – one of the worst of his career – though he did record an above-average walk rate of 8.4 percent and a 51.8 percent groundball rate.

Mets Acquire Jordan Yamamoto

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The Marlins have traded right-hander Jordan Yamamoto to the Mets in exchange for minor league infielder Federico Polanco, the Mets announced Monday. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, the Mets have designated infielder Robel Garcia for assignment. Yamamoto was designated for assignment last week when Miami inked reliever Anthony Bass to a two-year contract.

The 24-year-old Yamamoto joined the Marlins as one of four players acquired in the lopsided deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee. Yamamoto showed promise in a 15-start debut in 2019, notching a 4.46 ERA through his first 78 2/3 MLB frames while striking out a quarter of the hitters he faced. While that strikeout rate sat above the league average, he also walked a greater-than-average 11 percent of the hitters he faced.

Despite that promising debut, Yamamoto’s 2020 season was an utter disaster. In 11 1/3 innings, he was clobbered for 23 earned runs on 27 hits — including an astonishing eight home runs — and seven walks. Clearly, giving up nearly a homer per inning isn’t conducive to success, but it’s worth noting that there may well have been some physical reasons for his struggles. Yamamoto’s 2019 season ended with an IL placement due to a forearm strain, and his 89.8 mph average fastball in 2020 was down nearly two full miles per hour.

Yamamoto may not factor into the Mets’ immediate rotation plans, but he’ll be a nice piece of optionable depth behind top starters Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson. At present, Yamamoto and fellow trade acquisition Joey Lucchesi might be the favorites for the fifth spot in the rotation now with Steven Matz now a Blue Jay, but the Mets could yet add another veteran starting pitcher to their Opening Day group.

In exchange for Yamamoto, the Marlins will get the 19-year-old Polanco — a versatile, left-handed-hitting infielder who has yet to advance beyond the Dominican Summer League. (He’d likely have done so in 2020 were it not for the absence of a minor league season.) Polanco signed as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and most recently appeared with the Mets’ DSL affiliate in 2019, hitting .299/.383/.418 in 231 plate appearances. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him outside the Mets’ Top 30 prospects earlier this year, noting that he lacked power projection and has a contact-oriented offensive profile.

Garcia, 27, made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 2019 after after a highly unusual path to The Show. The former Indians farmhand was out of affiliated ball from 2014-18 before the Cubs caught a look at him playing for a professional team in Italy. They brought him in on a minor league pact, and Garcia showed off light-tower power at Triple-A in 2019 — 21 homers in 296 plate appearances — before being called up.

The Cubs gave Garcia 80 plate appearances in 2019, and he responded with a tepid .208 average and .275 on-base percentage, but he still slugged .500 thanks to five homers, two doubles and two triples in that short time. Garcia also punched out in 35 of those 80 plate appearances, so while the raw power he possesses is plain to see, there’s some obvious work to be done on his approach at the plate. He still has a minor league option remaining, so a team in need of some right-handed-hitting infield depth could roll the dice on his considerable raw power. The Mets have a week to trade him, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Mets Notes: Foltynewicz, Williams

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The Mets have already put a lot of focus on their rotation this winter, between retaining Marcus Stroman via the qualifying offer and adding Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi in trades.  While Trevor Bauer’s name continues to loom over Citi Field, the Mets are also continuing to explore other hurlers.  According to Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter), New York had interest in right-hander Trevor Williams before Williams signed with the Cubs.  The Mets were also among the teams present to watch Mike Foltynewicz during his recent throwing session, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

With Steven Matz recently dealt to the Blue Jays, the Mets’ projected starting four looks like Jacob deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, and David Peterson.  Lucchesi probably has the inside line on the fifth starter job for now, but the Mets aren’t short on other depth options in the upper minors, and Foltynewicz would provide another experienced candidate to either compete for a rotation spot or perhaps fit into the bullpen.  Since Noah Syndergaard is expected to make a midseason return from Tommy John rehab, whomever fills the fifth starter role is ultimately keeping the seat warm for Syndergaard — barring the shake-up of a Bauer signing, that is.

  • Aside from the Mets, Foltynewicz also drew interest from the Rays, White Sox, and Twins, Heyman writes.  An All-Star with the Braves in 2018, Foltynewicz took a step back in 2019 and then pitched in only one game in 2020, resulting in his opting for free agency after being outrighted during the season.  Given these recent struggles, “Folty” would very likely have to pitch his way into a rotation spot during Spring Training, yet it is easy to see why teams would have interest in the right-hander as a change of scenery candidate.  The White Sox just re-signed Carlos Rodon, though considering Rodon has also had a tough time over the last two seasons, his presence wouldn’t necessarily rule out a potential deal between Foltynewicz and the Sox.

Mets Sign Aaron Loup

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JANUARY 30: Loup’s deal, which the Mets have now made official, also includes $250K in potential incentives based on appearances, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The Mets’ 40-man roster is now full.

JANUARY 28: Loup’s contract would guarantee him around $3MM once finalized, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

JANUARY 27: The Mets and left-handed reliever Aaron Loup are in agreement on a deal, pending the completion of a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal for Loup, Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported earlier this afternoon that the Mets were “zeroing in” on Loup after missing out on Brad Hand, who signed with the division-rival Nationals. Loup is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Loup, 33, gives the Mets an established left-handed bullpen option that the roster previous lacked. Waiver claim Stephen Tarpley and former 40th-round pick Daniel Zamora were the only two southpaws on the Mets’ 40-man roster prior to their forthcoming agreement with Loup. Veteran southpaw Jerry Blevins will be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee as well, though he didn’t pitch at all last season.

Outside of a forearm strain that wiped out a good chunk of his 2019 season in San Diego, Loup has been a largely durable and reasonably effective bullpen piece since breaking into the Majors with the Blue Jays back in 2012. He’s had some ups and downs along the way, but the end result is a 3.38 ERA and 3.24 SIERA with career strikeout and walk rates of 21.9 percent and 7.0 percent. Loup has upped his strikeout numbers over the past few years, however, and in 2020 with the Rays delivered one of his best stretches: a 2.52 ERA and 3.62 SIERA with a 22.9 percent punchout rate and a 4.2 percent walk rate that ranked among the game’s lowest. He also tossed 5 1/3 innings in the playoffs, allowing just two runs with seven strikeouts against two walks.

Loup has been better against lefties throughout his big league career but has held his own against righties and was quite good against them in 2020’s shortened slate of games. He’s held opposing lefties to a career .232/.301/.319 batting line while righties have managed a .264/.333/.428 output.

Loup will join right-hander Trevor May as a new member of the Mets’ setup core, effectively replacing fellow free-agent lefty Justin Wilson in the process. The Mets could perhaps still use another lefty, but with a relief corps featuring May, Loup, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Castro and Brad Brach, they’re certainly not light on talent. Some of those veterans — Betances and Familia in particular — are in search of rebound efforts, but everyone in that veteran group has enjoyed a good bit of big league success.

Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

Daniel Murphy Retires

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Three-time All-Star and 2015 National League Championship Series MVP Daniel Murphy is retiring from baseball after a 12-year Major League career, he tells SNY’s Andy Martino.

Daniel Murphy | Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

“This is a beautiful game, and I really just feel humbled and blessed that it let me jump on the ride for a little bit,” Murphy tells Martino. “It’s beautiful. It can teach you about so many things. And all I can say is, thank you.” Mets fans, in particular, will want to read Martino’s interview for dozens of quotes, stories and reflections on his time in New York, as well as additional thoughts from teammate and captain David Wright.

A 13th-round pick by the Mets back in 2006, Murphy made his MLB debut just two years later at the age of 23. He solidified a spot on the Mets’ roster with a strong showing in both 2008 and 2009, but a knee sprain late in Spring Training 2010 and a subsequent torn MCL suffered on a Triple-A rehab stint later that year wiped out his entire 2010 campaign.

Murphy returned to the field in 2011 and had his best year yet, hitting .320/.362/.448 in 423 trips to the plate. His offense over the next few years took a step back, but he settled in as an above-average contributor capable of seeing time at multiple positions. Late in the 2015 season, however, as the Mets were driving toward the postseason, Murphy took his game to new heights. He slugged 10 home runs after the All-Star break while hitting .285/.318/.500 through 280 trips to the plate, but he saved the best for a legendary postseason run that brought the Mets to the brink of a championship.

Thirty years old at the time, Murphy was a man on fire that October. He appeared in all 14 of the Mets’ games and posted a combined .328/.391/.724 batting line, belting seven home runs and a pair of doubles while scoring 13 runs and knocking in 11. Incredibly, Murphy homered in six consecutive playoff games during that Herculean performance — including a go-ahead, sixth inning shot of Zack Greinke in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS and one in all four games of the Mets’ NLCS sweep of the Cubs. Wright tells Martino that Murphy’s 2015 postseason was “one of the most impressive things I ever witnessed on a baseball field.”

Murphy parlayed that brilliant postseason effort into a three-year deal with the Nationals, and while the club didn’t win its World Series until after he’d departed, that was through no fault of Murphy’s. He had his best season in 2016, his first year with the Nats, hitting .347/.390/.595 en route to a second-place finish in National League MVP voting. He hit .329/.380/.550 in his two and a half seasons with the Nats before being traded to the Cubs (and continuing to rake) — more than justifying the $37.5MM price of his contract.

From there, Murphy would sign a two-year deal to serve as the Rockies’ primary first baseman, but injuries took their toll during his time in Colorado. Murphy suffered a significant fracture in his finger after just two games, and though he was expected to miss at least a month at the time, he returned to the lineup just shy of four weeks later. Murphy swung a hot bat early on, but it seemed clear that the hand was bothering him; his hard-hit rate and exit velocities dropped precipitously that year, and his power wasn’t close to its peak levels despite playing his home games at Coors Field. Murphy posted a .279/.328/.452 line on the whole that year, and he followed it up with a .236/.275/.333 showing in 40 games in 2020’s shortened schedule.

All told, Murphy is a three-time All-Star, NLCS MVP and two-time Silver Slugger with a second-place MVP finish on his resume. He played in a dozen MLB seasons, hitting a combined .296/.341/.455 with 1,572 hits, 178 home runs, 371 doubles, 29 triples, 68 stolen bases, 710 runs scored and 735 runs driven in. Murphy tacked on eight more home runs and an OPS just shy of 1.000 in 25 postseason games split between the Mets, the Nats and the Cubs.

Mets Rumors: Bauer, JBJ, Arrieta

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While free-agent right-hander Trevor Bauer and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. have frequently been connected to the Mets in recent weeks, no agreement appears imminent in either case. The club is “far apart” from deals with both of those players, Andy Martino of SNY says (video link). The race for Bauer could come down to the Mets and Dodgers, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that the Padres showed interest before acquiring Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove in separate trades. The Padres presented a three- to four-year offer to Bauer, but that “didn’t fly,” according to Heyman.

As for Bradley, the Mets are more focused on a short-term deal, whereas the 30-year-old may want a longer pact, Martino suggests. The longtime member of the Red Sox is clearly the top center fielder left on a market that lost George Springer to the Blue Jays last week, so he may be in better position to secure a large guarantee.

  • Staying with the Mets, they will be in attendance for free-agent righty Jake Arrieta’s showcase on Friday, per Martino and Colin Martin of SNY. The former Cy Young winner disappointed with the division-rival Phillies from 2018-20, but Arrieta at least looks like a capable back-end starter at this point of his career. The Mets may have opened up a spot in their starting staff Wednesday when they traded lefty Steven Matz to the Blue Jays.

Blue Jays Acquire Steven Matz

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9:15pm: The teams have announced the deal.

8:35pm: The Blue Jays and Mets are closing in on a swap that would send lefty Steven Matz to Toronto, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a trade between the clubs was coming; Michael Mayer of Metsmerized had tweeted that a Matz move was in the works.

Three right-handed pitchers will head back to New York in the arrangement: Josh Winckowski, Sean Reid-Foley, and Yennsy Diaz. (Via Murray, on Twitter, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, also via Twitter.)

Matz, 29, is due $5.2MM after agreeing to avoid arbitration. He will qualify for free agency after the 2021 campaign. The Mets obviously determined they could better allocate that salary for other needs. Whether it’ll be part of a big payout to lure Trevor Bauer remains to be seen; there’s still no reason to believe anything is imminent on that front.

While he has at times featured as a high-quality big-league starter, Matz has had his share of difficulties of late. The Long Island native wraps up a six-year run with the Mets having thrown 579 2/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball.

While Matz made thirty starts apiece in 2018 and 2019, arm issues were a recurring problem. He spent time on the injured list in 2020 and ended the campaign with a brutal 9.68 ERA in just 30 2/3 frames of action.

That unfortunate short-season effort came with a few bright spots. Though Matz surrendered a ton of hard contact, he also managed a career-best 25.4% strikeout percentage while delivering his sinker at an average of 94.5 mph.

Clearly, the Jays believe Matz still possesses the necessary physical tools to deliver a good number of useful innings. He’ll likely have a chance to battle for a rotation spot in camp, though the team could also plan to use him in a swingman or even pure relief capacity.

The Mets will get some reward for deciding to tender Matz a contract. None of the three arms acquired come with high-grade prospect billing, but each will have a chance to contribute in the near term.

Both Reid-Foley and Diaz have debuted in the majors, meaning they also occupy 40-man roster spots (albeit with options remaining). The former threw 71 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball over three seasons with the Jays, carrying a suboptimal 76:48 cumulative K/BB ratio. Diaz has just one appearance to his name, but turned in a solid showing at the Double-A level in 2019.

As for Winckowski, he’s still due for further seasoning. The 22-year-old reached the High-A level in 2019. Over 127 1/3 total frames that year, he turned in a sturdy 2.69 ERA. Winckowski will (again) be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the 2021 campaign.

Mets Have Made Offer To Trevor Bauer

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JANUARY 27: Martino has a bit more information on the Mets’ offer (Twitter link). The deal would run no more than four years, with Bauer picking up at least one opt-out opportunity. There’s still no indication that the Mets are anything more than one of several suitors at this point.

It’s no surprise that the New York org dangled this sort of relatively unorthodox scenario to Bauer. He’s obviously willing to entertain all sorts of contractual approaches and different teams may prefer any number of different structures. It’ll ultimately be interesting to learn (to the extent it ends up being publicly reported) just how many variations Bauer will ultimately have to choose from.

JANUARY 26: The Mets’ interest in Trevor Bauer has reached the point that they’ve made a formal offer to the right-hander, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). However, despite a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicating that the Mets have put forth a record-setting annual value in their offer, each of Martino, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand report that the Mets do not have an offer that strong on the table.

Nightengale has since walked back the AAV portion of his report but further tweeted that a Mets source “confirmed” they’ve made a formal offer to Bauer (obviously, at a non-record-setting rate). Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that the offer was formally put on the table “weeks ago,” so it obviously has not been strong enough to push Bauer toward a deal. That said, the first definitive indication of an offer being made to Bauer is of some note.

The current AAV record is held by Gerrit Cole, whose nine-year contract with the Yankees pays him an average of $36MM per year. There’s been plenty of speculation on the possibility of Bauer eclipsing that mark but on a shorter-term arrangement. MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes took a look at whether Bauer and agent Rachel Luba would have a legitimate case for seeking such a deal earlier this winter, concluding that a record AAV offer would likely need to come in at four or fewer years in total length. That topic has proven quite polarizing, with many onlookers pointing to Cole’s superior track record and consistency. However, as Tim explored, teams are typically willing to pay substantial premiums in terms of AAV if it limits the overall length of a contract.

Bauer hasn’t closed the door on any contract structure since his free agency began. As recently as 2019, the right-hander insisted he’d only sign one-year contracts upon reaching the market, playing out his career in mercenary-esque, year-to-year fashion. He’s softened that stance this winter, as both he and Luba have voiced an openness to longer-term deals. The potential for opt-out provisions to be baked into any multi-year agreement could certainly impact negotiations as well.

Ultimately, there’s no way of knowing whether a short-term deal with a record annual rate would prove enticing enough for Bauer — if any team is even willing to make such an offer in the first place — or whether he’d prefer the security of a longer-term pact at a lower price point. The answer there is quite likely dependent on the team making the offer. Bauer has stressed on his YouTube channel that he’s seeking a “partnership” with a win-now team that will support his desire to grow his brand on social media and have an “honest” conversation about him pitching every fourth day. The Mets, Angels and Blue Jays have all been linked to Bauer in recent weeks, and other pitching-needy teams are surely at least keeping tabs on his market.

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