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Seth Lugo To Undergo Bone Spur Surgery

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Mets right-hander Seth Lugo will undergo elbow surgery to fix a broken bone spur on Tuesday, the team announced.  The issue was discovered after Lugo had been suffering from elbow inflammation during his offseason workouts.  Lugo won’t begin throwing for at least six weeks following his procedure, so he will surely begin the season on the injured list as he continues to build up arm strength.

Lugo posted a 5.15 ERA over 36 2/3 innings for New York in 2020, beginning the season in the bullpen but then starting his final seven outings.  Advanced metrics indicate that he pitched better than that 5.15 ERA would indicate, as Lugo’s numbers were skewed by two very poor starts against the Phillies and Nationals (Lugo was touched for 12 runs over three total innings) and a big home run rate.  The righty had a 3.29 SIERA and very strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (6.3%) percentages, while also posting a 48.5 grounder rate and some elite curveball spin.

A 34th-round pick for the Mets back in 2011, Lugo rose through the organizational ranks and broke into the Show as a starter in 2016-17, and also made five starts during the 2018 season.  For much of 2018-19, however, Lugo was a very effective reliever out of the Amazins’ bullpen, and he was slated to return to that role (perhaps with the odd spot start) in 2021.  While it doesn’t seem like Lugo’s surgery is overtly major, it obviously isn’t a good sign for him to miss such a big chunk of Spring Training, and he’ll need at least a month to properly prepare and ramp back up.

With Lugo gone for at least some time at the start of the season, Robert Gsellman and the newly-acquired Jordan Yamamoto look like the Mets’ top options for rotation depth should one of their projected starting five also suffer an injury prior to Opening Day.  The Mets are still reportedly looking into starting pitching options, and if a new arm is added, Joey Lucchesi will likely be the odd man out who is moved into the bullpen.

Mets Trade Ali Sanchez To Cardinals

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The Cardinals have acquired catcher Ali Sanchez from the Mets in exchange for cash, per a club announcement. New York had designated Sanchez for assignment this week after adding Jonathan Villar on a big league deal. The Cardinals are now up to 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Sanchez, 24, made his MLB debut with the Mets in 2020, though he only tallied 10 plate appearances, going 1-for-9 in that time. He’s regarded as an above-average defensive catcher with solid bat-to-ball skills but minimal power. He split the 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .261/.326/.322 with a homer and 17 doubles. That production closely mirrors his tepid .259/.317/.331 slash in parts of six minor league seasons, though it should be noted that Sanchez has only fanned in 14.2 percent of his 1484 minor league plate appearances.

Sanchez threw out 44 percent of attempted base thieves against him in his last minor league season (2019) and boasts an even better 46 percent mark in his minor league career. He’s a potential backup option for Yadier Molina if the Cards want to give Andrew Knizner regular at-bats in Triple-A rather than have him sit on the big league bench and start once per week or so.

Latest On Mets’ Interest In Kris Bryant

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Though the Mets and Cubs tabled their talks for Kris Bryant at some point last month, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the two sides have re-engaged to some extent more recently.

As outlined here in the past, any trade involving Bryant would be complicated for myriad reasons. The former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP is coming off his worst season, though that came in a truncated 2020 schedule, making it more difficult to evaluate his ability to rebound. He’s also controlled for only one more season and owed a hefty $19.5MM at a time when most clubs throughout the league are wary of taking on more money. There’s also little hope of Bryant, a Scott Boras client, signing an extension — be it with the Cubs or with a new team that acquires him in a trade.

Martino indicates that the Mets have been looking for takers to offload relievers Dellin Betances and/or Jeurys Familia, both of whom are signed through 2021 at rather inflated amounts. Betances exercised a player option valued at $6.8MM for the coming season, while Familia is owed $11MM this coming season ($1MM of which is deferred until 2022). His contract also contains a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Speculatively speaking, the Mets could try to push either reliever on the Cubs as something of a financial counterweight.

Of course, the Mets already have a third baseman who’s been a productive hitter for them: 27-year-old J.D. Davis. New York controls Davis all the way through the 2024 season, and while his ceiling isn’t as high as Bryant’s, Davis has been every bit as productive as Bryant over the past couple seasons (.288/.370/.483 to Bryant’s .267/.365/.488). Davis, however, is owed just $2.1MM this year and eligible for three more raises in arbitration between now and the 2024-25 offseason.

Martino adds that the Cubs have at times expressed interest in acquiring Davis themselves, which isn’t a shock given his affordable price tag and recent level of production. However, getting the Mets to part with Davis in return for Bryant alone seems decidedly unlikely. Even attaching Familia’s final year to Davis would still mean the Mets were taking on more than $6MM in new salary and parting with four years of Davis in exchange for one year of a hopeful Bryant rebound.

It’s easy to conjure up more elaborate scenarios in which the Cubs send Bryant and an established pitcher to the Mets, who could use an upgrade in the rotation to push Joey Lucchesi into more of a depth role. The Mets just missed on Trevor Bauer in free agency, and they’ve recently been linked to free-agent starters. The Cubs adding any MLB pitching help to a potential deal would likely necessitate adding more pieces on the Mets’ side, however, further illustrating the difficult nature of actually coming to an agreement on such a layered discussion.

Mets Designate Brad Brach For Assignment

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The Mets announced that they have designated reliever Brad Brach for assignment. They did so to make room for the signing of infielder Jonathan Villar.

The well-traveled Brach joined the Mets in August 2019, shortly after the Cubs released him, and did well enough in the season’s final weeks for New York to re-sign him entering last year. Brach wasn’t able to follow up on that success, though, as he gave the Mets 12 1/3 innings of eight-earned run ball with just as many walks as strikeouts (14). Also of concern: Brach averaged just over 90 mph on his fastball – far below his lifetime mean of 93.6.

The soon-to-be 35-year-old Brach forewent another trip to free agency this past October when he chose to exercise a $2.075MM player option for 2021. However, Brach could soon head back to the open market if the Mets don’t find a taker for him in a trade, as he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment.

While 2020 was rocky for Brach, he has been durable and adept at preventing runs for most of his career. He has thrown at least 60 innings in six different seasons and has pitched to a 3.39 ERA/3.78 SIERA with an above-average strikeout rate of 25.1 percent over 522 2/3 frames.

Royals Acquire Andrew Benintendi In 3-Team Deal

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The Royals have announced a three-team deal to acquire outfielder Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox. Outfielder Franchy Cordero is part of the return going to Boston, along with righty Josh Winckowski, who’ll come from the Mets. The Boston org also receives three players to be named later, two from Kansas City and one from New York. On their end, the Mets will add K.C. outfield prospect Khalil Lee.

Benintendi is under team control through the 2022 season. He’ll earn $6.6MM for the upcoming campaign under a two-year arbitration agreement he made previously with the Sox. The Sox will pick up $2.8MM of the tab on Benintendi’s 2021 salary.

There’s no doubting Benintendi’s talent. He has largely produced above-average offensive numbers while delivering well-rated, versatile glovework across the outfield. Benintendi shone in particular in 2018, when he ran a .290/.366/.465 slash line with 16 home runs and 21 stolen bases over 661 plate appearances.

Unfortunately, Benintendi’s output has drooped a bit since that time. He was merely an average offensive performer in 2019, though his batted-ball figures (.330 wOBA vs. .348 xwOBA) suggested some poor fortune. And he struggled mightily in brief action last year, with a forgettable 14-game effort halted by what turned out to be a season-ending rib injury.

The Royals obviously believe a well-rested Benintendi can return to form. To reach his previous levels, the former sixth-overall pick will both need to rediscover his acumen at the plate and rebound from a multi-year decline in foot speed.

For the rights to Benintendi, the Royals will part with a package of potentially interesting but unestablished players. Cordero is 26 years of age, like Benintendi, but has only taken 315 MLB plate appearances over the past four seasons. Despite immense potential, he has been thwarted to this point by injuries and has yet to fully test himself at the game’s highest level.

The Sox will give Cordero a chance to find his footing in the bigs, though even if he’s successful he’ll only come with one more season of control than Benintendi. They’ll otherwise look solely to the future in this deal. Winckowski, whom the Mets acquired earlier in the offseason, has yet to crack the upper minors. He’s considered a potential back-of-the-rotation arm. It remains to be seen what names will be available in the PTBNL selection pool, but the Red Sox will have three chances to choose far-away young talent after getting a fresh look over the coming months.

For the Mets, it’s rather a straightforward situation. The club obviously preferred the future of Lee to that of Winckowski (and whatever PTBNL ends up moving in the deal). In addition to filling a void in the team’s prospect pool, Lee has some serious potential upside. He’s a certified burner, having swiped 53 bags at Double-A in 2019, but still has some developing to do as a hitter.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter) first reported a deal was in the works. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted an agreement was in place. Further details were reported by Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link), Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter), Heyman (Twitter link), Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (in a tweet), MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (on Twitter), Chad Jennings of The Athletic (in a tweet), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Designate Ali Sanchez

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The Mets have designated catcher Ali Sanchez for assignment, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports on Twitter. His roster spot was needed to make way for the team’s new addition this evening.

Sanchez, 24, becomes the second player to lose a Mets 40-man spot this evening. He reached the majors briefly in 2020, getting enough time to record his first hit but little more. Sanchez earned that opportunity primarily with his glovework, as he carries a marginal .259/.317/.331 batting line over his minor-league career.

Mets Designate Corey Oswalt

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The Mets have designated righty Corey Oswalt for assignment, per a team announcement. His roster spot will go to Albert Almora, whose previously reported deal is now official.

Oswalt, 27, has received several MLB opportunities over the past three seasons. All told, he carries a 6.19 ERA with a 16.4% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 41.3% groundball rate through 84 1/3 innings of action.

None of those stats jump off the page. Likewise, Oswalt doesn’t throw particularly hard and didn’t produce gaudy peripherals in the minors. That said, he has produced full-season, sub-3.00 ERA efforts at the Double-A and Triple-A levels and could hold appeal elsewhere as a depth arm.

Mets Interested In Jake Arrieta, James Paxton

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The Mets attended Jake Arrieta’s recent workout for MLB clubs, and the two sides have had discussions about a potential contract in the weeks since that outing, per SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). Martino notes that there’s no sense a deal is close and adds that lefty James Paxton is also of some interest to the Mets.

Both Arrieta and Paxton are repped by the Boras Corporation, so talks regarding the team’s interest in the pair are largely streamlined. Arrieta and Paxton aren’t free agents at ideal times, but they do represent a couple of the most established arms available on a shrinking market that lost No. 1 option Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers last week. The Mets were finalists for Bauer, and though they’re not going to acquire anyone of his caliber at this stage (barring an unexpected blockbuster trade), they remain on the hunt for starting help.

The Mets’ rotation has undergone a few noteworthy changes already since the offseason started. They brought back Marcus Stroman for the $18.9MM qualifying offer after he sat out all of last year over health concerns. The club also acquired Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland in the Francisco Liriano trade, while it dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays and brought in a potential replacement in Joey Lucchesi as part of a three-way swap with the Padres and Pirates.

Stroman, Carrasco, Lucchesi and David Peterson currently look like the favorites to back superstar Jacob deGrom in New York’s rotation when the season opens. If signed, though, Arrieta or Paxton would appear to be in line for a back-end spot. Arrieta’s a former NL Cy Young winner, though the soon-to-be 35-year-old posted a rough 5.08 ERA/4.83 SIERA combination in 44 1/3 innings with the division-rival Phillies last year.

Paxton has frequently dealt with injury issues during what has otherwise been a solid career, and he pitched just 20 1/3 frames as a Yankee in 2020 because of back and arm troubles. When the 32-year-old did take the mound, he limped to a 6.64 ERA and saw his average fastball drop from 95 mph-plus to a little over 92, though Paxton did log a respectable 3.88 SIERA. He also continued to generate strikeouts at a high clip, as his 28.9 percent K rate checked in well above the league average of 23.4.

Mets Interested In Justin Turner, But Deal Unlikely

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The Mets are interested in free-agent third baseman Justin Turner, though the two sides aren’t seeing eye to eye on either contract length or value, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It’s quite unlikely the two will bridge the gap, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Turner has at least four teams after him, but as Rosenthal notes, the Dodgers – his longtime club – remain the favorites to sign him. A Mets deal would be interesting, though, as they let Turner go after he spent 2011-13 with them. The 36-year-old has since blossomed into a star with the Dodgers.

Mets To Sign Albert Almora

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Feb. 9: Almora’s deal comes with a $1.25MM base salary that can be increased via incentives, tweets Heyman.

Feb. 7: The Mets are in agreement on a contract with free agent outfielder Albert Almora Jr., pending a physical, report Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of the Athletic (Twitter link). It is expected to be a major league, incentive-laden deal for the Magnus Sports client, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Selected sixth overall in the 2012 draft by the Cubs out of a Florida high school, Almora had previously spent his entire career in the Chicago organization. Well-regarded as a prospect for his defensive acumen in center field, Almora broke into the majors midway through the Cubs’ World Series winning 2016 season. Over his first year-plus as a big leaguer, he looked to be establishing himself as another long-term core piece for Chicago. Between 2016-17, Almora was roughly a league average hitter. Combined with his glove in center, he at least seemed to be establishing himself as a solid regular.

Unfortunately, Almora’s offense has fallen since then. In 2018, he hit .286/.323/.378 with just five home runs over 479 plate appearances. While he made plenty of contact and hit for a high batting average, Almora’s overall offensive value was rather limited to his lack of power and meager 5.0% walk rate. Unfortunately, that drop-off at the plate continued, as he stumbled to a .236/.271/.381 line over 363 plate appearances in 2019. Almora spent most of last season at the Cubs’ alternate training site, starting just six regular-season games and being left off the roster for their playoff series against the Marlins. Chicago unsurprisingly non-tendered him after the season.

Even coming off a few poor years, it’s easy to see why the Mets were interested in bringing Almora in on what’s surely a low-cost deal. Advanced defensive metrics are divided on the extent of Almora’s impact with the glove, but they all agree he’s at least a solid center fielder. Over 2,612.1 career innings at the position, Almora has rated as six runs better than average, in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. Statcast’s range-based metric is more bullish, crediting Almora with fourteen plays above average. Ultimate Zone Rating, meanwhile, has rated him as closer to a break-even defender.

The Mets’ projected primary outfield of Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto is one of the better offensive groupings in the game but comes with obvious question marks in the field. Almora figures to serve as an oft-used defensive replacement at the end of games, perhaps bumping Nimmo to a corner and moving Smith off the grass when New York is protecting a late lead. A right-handed hitter, Almora also offers an obvious complement to the left-handed bats of Smith, Nimmo and Conforto. Guillermo Heredia is already on hand as a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder, but Almora offers a bit more upside in that role.

If Almora regains his footing at the plate, his stay in Queens could extend beyond next season. As a player with four-plus years of MLB service, Almora remains controllable via arbitration through the end of 2022.

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