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Mets Reportedly Willing To Trade Matt Harvey

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Sources close to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News tell her that the Mets have talked to “at least two teams” about trading former All-Star Matt Harvey this winter. This seems to be part of a larger strategy that Ackert describes as “dipping into their strength of starting pitchers to address their needs heading into the 2018 season.”

One of Ackert’s sources says that the Mets want to “flip Harvey for a reliever”, and are more interested in moving him than fellow Amazin starters Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo. The report aligns with quotes from GM Sandy Alderson, who told reporters that no player on the roster is untouchable (though in contradiction, the organization has seemingly made it clear that starters Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are not on the table).

The thought of trading the right-handed Harvey for a relief pitcher would have seemed ludicrous as recently as 2015. After missing the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, Harvey seemingly made a full recovery; he pitched to a sparkling 2.71 ERA across 189 1/3 innings, including a fantastic month of August during which he allowed just one earned run spanning four starts. His performance helped the Mets to a 90-72 record en route to their first NL East pennant since 2006.

Unfortunately, Harvey’s numbers plummeted steeply in 2016. The one-time ace experienced a slight drop in velocity (along with some terrible batted ball fortune), which led to a 4-10 record and a 4.86 ERA prior to season-ending surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. His velocity and strikeout rate dropped off even further in 2017, leading to horrific peripherals: 6.51 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, and a 6.39 FIP that ranked third-worst among pitchers who started at least 15 games.

The Dark Knight’s fall from grace has been widely publicized. His trade value, of course, is at an all-time low; Harvey performed at nearly a full win below replacement level last season, carries significant injury risk, and projects to earn a $5.9MM salary in his final year of arbitration. Though he carries significant upside, it’s fair to wonder how likely Harvey is to revert back to his 2015 form. After failing to reach 100 innings in each of the past two seasons, teams are likely to be skeptical over Harvey’s bounce-back potential.

Still, it’s not difficult to imagine an MLB club taking a flyer on Harvey at the price of an “impact reliever.” The Yankees and Brewers, for example, seem to have reasonable bullpen depth and a need in the rotation; either of them could feasibly flip a relief arm for the chance to play roulette with the former six-WAR player. It’s also important to note that the Mets’ wish list isn’t limited to bullpen help. The club is also looking to add a second baseman, along with a part-time first baseman or outfielder (link).

While Harvey has performed poorly in recent years, it’s worth noting that he’ll enter the 2018 season at just under 29 years of age. Regardless of whether he’s traded or not, his storyline headed into 2018 will be captivating and suspenseful.

 

Latest On The Mets’ Offseason Plans

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Here’s the latest from Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who spoke with reporters (including Newsday’s Marc Carig, and Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post) about where his team stands headed into the Winter Meetings…

  • If there was a general theme to Alderson’s comments, it was that the Mets will be patient when it comes to making their moves, particularly in the relief pitching market.  The team seemed poised to make a quicker jump for a bullpen arm earlier this winter, though now New York appears to be taking a step back.  “We’re not going to chase players.  There are a lot of guys out there, and a lot of teams looking for relief pitching,” Alderson said.  “We think there’s some values out there. And to the extent that the market gets overheated, I wouldn’t think that we’ll jump into the inferno.  But we do want to improve our bullpen.”  In a follow-up tweet from Puma, Alderson “is sending out signals to” some agents that the Mets might not sign a reliever until after the Winter Meetings or possibly even into January.  The Mets are one of the teams who made a three-year offer to Bryan Shaw, though Carig suggests that Shaw would be holding out for a fourth year or perhaps is looking for an offer from a team whose Spring Training camp is in Arizona (where Shaw owns a home).
  • Dominic Smith “is still very much in the mix” for regular time at first base, Alderson said.  Smith received some criticism from Mets officials, including Alderson himself, after the season, though recent reports had the team looking for just part-time first base help, either in the form of a platoon partner like Adam Lind or an outfielder who could fill in at first like Jay Bruce.  “I wouldn’t expect us to do something that totally eliminates Dominic as a possibility,” the GM said.  “We are still very high on Dominic — some of my comments earlier in the offseason notwithstanding. I would be surprised if we did anything that precluded him from not having an opportunity in Spring Training.”
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is almost certainly going to be used at third base next season, so Alderson said the Mets will look for second base help.  A trade for a second baseman is possible, though “our farm system right now is not brimming with prospects, so in that sense, making a trade isn’t as attractive,” Alderson said.
  • The Mets were never linked to the Giancarlo Stanton trade rumors, as Alderson said he “just didn’t think, given the contract, a variety of circumstances, it made any sense for us to feign any interest for purposes of public consumption.”  While the Mets no longer have to worry about Stanton as an intra-division rival, they’ll get a regular dose of the slugger as both an interleague foe with the Yankees.

Mets Rumors: Santana, Bruce, Walker, Kendrick, Reyes, Shaw

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This is the second time today we’ll focus on the Mets, who are active in the rumor mill as the Winter Meetings draw closer. The latest comes courtesy of Marc Carig of Newsday…

  • Less than a month ago, the Mets were reportedly among several teams with interest in free agent first baseman Carlos Santana. Now the idea of the Mets landing Santana looks “very unlikely,” a source told Carig.  The pessimism toward signing Santana stems from the presence of young first baseman Dominic Smith and an unwillingness on the team’s part to make a major financial commitment at the position. With Santana a strong bet to sign one of the most valuable contracts in this offseason’s class of free agents, the Mets are nearly certain to target a cheap stopgap like Adam Lind instead, per Carig, though he adds that they remain interested in a reunion with potential first base option Jay Bruce. Unlike Santana, Bruce is primarily an outfielder, and the Mets value his versatility enough to make a signing possible.
  • Elsewhere around the infield, Carig writes that it’s “unlikely” the Mets will sign free agent second baseman Neil Walker, whom they traded to the Brewers over the summer. They haven’t shown any interest in utilityman Howie Kendrick, meanwhile, but re-signing longtime Met Jose Reyes remains on the table. Reyes turned in a respectable age-34 season in 2017, and he made it known toward the end of the year that he’d like to finish his career with the Mets.
  • New York reportedly made an offer to reliever Bryan Shaw around Thanksgiving, but there’s still no indication as to whether he’s interested in joining the club, Carig reports. The belief around the majors is that Shaw has received multiple three-year proposals in the $24MM range (it’s unclear if any of those came from the Mets), one rival executive informed Carig. Shaw, 30, may be holding out for a fourth year, and the Mets would balk at that, according to Carig.

Mets Have Talked With Indians, Tigers About Trades For Second Baseman

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7:02pm: The Tigers’ efforts to trade Kinsler have “intensified” of late, Katie Strang of The Athletic reports (subscription required and recommended). Moving Kinsler will be a key area of focus for Detroit during the upcoming week, Strang adds, given that the team has a full 40-man roster with Thursday’s Rule 5 draft approaching. The Tigers are slated to pick first in the draft, and dealing Kinsler by then would give them room to select a player with that choice.

9:31am: According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the Mets have had talks about significant potential trades for Ian Kinsler of the Tigers and Jason Kipnis of the Indians. The Mets may also use the winter meetings to explore a deal with the Pirates for Josh Harrison, says Carig.

At this point, Carig clarifies, it seems as though the Mets have had much more dialogue with the Tigers regarding Kinsler; however there’s “some skepticism about a deal getting done there”.

It’s certainly no surprise to hear that a team with a need at second base has inquired on Kinsler. The last-place Tigers endured a rough first half last season that culminated in a decision to tear down and rebuild. Veterans J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Justin Verlander were all traded to different contending teams, and Detroit ultimately finished the season with just 64 wins. With no serious ability to contend next season, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already pointed out that Kinsler seems like a prime trade candidate.

While Kinsler finished 2017 with his worst full season by fWAR (2.4), he’s a solid bounceback candidate for a Mets team with plans to push for a pennant in 2018. Kinsler hit just .236/.313/.412 this past season, but was seemingly held back by some terrible luck with BABIP (.244). At 35, he’s no sure bet to return to previous form, but considering he combined for 9.8 fWAR between 2015 and 2016, acquiring Kinsler could be well worth the risk for the Mets.

The news about talks for Kipnis are perhaps a bit more surprising. There’s been some speculation about Kipnis as a trade candidate this offseason; he’s coming off a down offensive year during which he hit just .232/.291/.414 and missed significant time due to shoulder and hamstring injuries, and he seems to have been displaced at the keystone by teammate Jose Ramirez. However, Kipnis is one of the more significant faces in the Indians franchise, and he’s been one of their best offensive players overall for the past half-decade. To this point, there’s been no indication from Cleveland’s camp that they’d be willing to trade Kipnis at all; the fact that they’ve had talks with the Mets about him seems to imply that they’re at least willing to explore trade scenarios.

Of course, there’s no real word as to the extent of the trade talks surrounding Kipnis. The report that the Mets have had more dialogue about Kinsler and that such a deal is met with skepticism seems to imply that negotiations for Kipnis are far from advanced. It could be that the Mets were simply doing their due diligence, and that the Indians were willing to listen. Regardless, Kipnis being available to any extent would add an interesting new twist to a second base market that no longer includes Dee Gordon.

While there’s not much word yet on the Mets’ reported interest in Harrison, he’d also be an upgrade to their current depth chart. Harrison has been a solid infielder for the Pirates over the past four seasons, and is capable of playing in the outfield and at third base as well. The Pirates haven’t yet signaled whether or not they’re making a push for contention, but if they decide to rebuild instead, Harrison would be one of the more obvious trade candidates. The 30-year-old is guaranteed $11.5MM for the remainder of his contract, which includes salary for 2018 season as well as buyouts for 2019 and 2020. Harrison hit .272/.339/.432 across 542 plate appearances for Pittsburgh last season.

Mets Notes: Castro, Reed, Pitchers

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The Mets may have a new option in their pursuit of a second baseman. Following today’s Giancarlo Stanton trade agreement, the Marlins are on track to acquire Starlin Castro, meaning they could be marketing a new second baseman just days after trading Dee Gordon to the Mariners. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets plan to speak with the Marlins regarding Castro. The 27-year-old Castro is a great hitter (.300 batting average in 2017), but his offensive value is somewhat held back by his lack of patience (4.9 BB%). Furthermore, he hasn’t provided much in the way of defensive value over the past two seasons. Still, Castro would be an upgrade over any of the current options on the Mets’ depth chart, and he’s been a roughly average big-league player on the whole during his eight-year MLB career. Castro might not require much in the way of a prospect return, either, and he can be controlled through the 2020 season if his club chooses to exercise a $16MM option.

More items from Queens…

  • Marc Carig of Newsday throws some cold water on the idea of a Mets-Marlins deal involving Castro. He tweets that although it’s possible the Mets could check in on the Marlins’ newest acquisition, it’s “not likely” that a deal will come together. The Mets reportedly prefer other second base options, so it sounds as though Carig’s sources believe they would exhaust those options before engaging in any serious negotiations with Miami.
  • In news of other Mets pursuits, Carig reports that the Mets are interested in a reunion with Addison Reed (Twitter link). The two sides apparently discussed an extension last spring, and for good reason; Reed was perhaps at his best during his tenure in New York. The righty reliever struck out 139 batters 126 2/3 innings with the Mets while walking just 19. His ERA was a pristine 2.20 during that time, though his xFIP (3.28) suggests there was some luck involved. Still, a 4.47 WPA is a great mark for a reliever over a season and a half, and Reed’s 12.1% swinging strike rate is impressive as well.
  • In a third tweet, Carig reveals that the Mets are open to trading any of their starting pitchers besides Jacob DeGrom and Noah Syndergaard. While there’s nothing brewing yet, Carig speculates that the Amazins could shop a starter in exchange for a second baseman. From my perspective, this hypothetical strategy could prove difficult. The Mets have reportedly shown interest in Jason Kipnis, but the Indians’ rotation is an area of great strength for the them and they don’t need to trade for another starter. The Tigers and Marlins are in the early stages of rebuilds, so they might be looking for minor league returns for Ian Kinsler and Starlin Castro, respectively, rather than players already at the MLB level. The Mets have shown reported interest in Josh Harrison of the Pirates as well, and the Bucs could use some help in the rotation; perhaps they’d be the best partner for this theoretical strategy.

Mets Have Looked At Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind

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It’s possible that Shohei Ohtani could make his decision on where to sign “by early next week,” according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). That gives us an idea of a potential timeline, though there’s still plenty of wiggle room.

Here’s more from Heyman on a variety of subjects:

  • The Orioles have been receiving calls on third baseman Manny Machado, writes Heyman. While the O’s aren’t shopping Machado and don’t wish to move him, Heyman notes that Baltimore is also willing to at least entertain offers on any of its players, even Machado. Presumably, it’d take a staggeringly high offer to convince the O’s to part with Machado even in spite of the fact that he’s just a year removed from free agency. The Orioles have reportedly been pursuing upgrades in their rotation all winter as they seek to bolster their club for one more run with Machado, closer Zach Britton and center fielder Adam Jones at the forefront of their roster. Heyman notes that the O’s are also having internal discussions about whether to try for a Machado extension, though doing so would likely require a precedent-setting deal for the 25-year-old superstar, as Machado currently projects to hit free agency at the abnormally young age of 26.
  • Sticking with the Orioles, Heyman says in his weekly notes post that the Rockies (previously reported) and Cardinals are among the teams that have shown some interest in Britton. It seems reasonable to suspect that Britton is more readily available than is Machado, given that Baltimore went well down the line on a possible deadline deal for the lefty. But that doesn’t mean the team will simply accept the top bid; in all likelihood, prying him loose will mean meeting the O’s asking price.
  • Some around the game believe the Cardinals could at least consider trading outfielder Dexter Fowler, Heyman adds. St. Louis would only do so, he suggests, if they were able to move most of the salary. That seems mostly reasonable to expect, given that Fowler posted a sturdy .264/.363/.488 slash with a career-high 18 long balls in his first season with the Cards. As for whether a trade is likely, that seems dubious. Fowler has a no-trade clause and sounds like he is settling in nicely in St. Louis. And president of baseball operations John Mozeliak kicked off the offseason by telling Fowler he wasn’t planning on trading him.
  • There’s more indication that the Padres are fairly serious about going after Eric Hosmer, says Heyman. He also reported yesterday that first baseman Wil Myers would be amenable to moving to the outfield to make way for Hosmer to play at first. Of course, whether the Pads are really willing to hand out a big enough contract to get a deal done remains to be seen.
  • At shortstop, the Padres have taken a look at Phillies veteran Freddy Galvis, says Heyman. The team is also weighing free agent Alcides Escobar. Either would seemingly make sense as a stop-gap option for the rebuilding club.
  • The Angels are looking harder at second basemen and first basemen than they are at the hot corner, says Heyman. It seems, then, that the club feels fairly content with Luis Valbuena taking the bulk of the time at third, though perhaps that could change depending upon what opportunities arise over the winter — and whether or not the team lands Ohtani. At second, the Halos have at last “looked at” Neil Walker, who’s said to be asking for three or four years.
  • The Mets have taken looks at free agent first basemen Mitch Moreland and Adam Lind, relays Heyman. With 22-year-old Dominic Smith in place, Heyman suggests the Mets may opt for a short-term first base option with outfield experience. Both Moreland and Lind check those boxes, though Heyman notes that the Mets are unlikely to sign the former.
  • Yankees center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury is slated to serve as a reserve yet again next season, but he’d like to remain with the club, per Heyman. Ellsbury’s full no-trade clause and the nearly $70MM left on his contract (including a $5MM buyout in 2021) figure to make dealing the 34-year-old a rather tall order for the Yanks.

Mariners, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Cubs, Angels Among Teams To Meet With Shohei Ohtani

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11:40pm: The Angels are indeed one of the finalists, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).

10:39pm: The Angels are thought by “multiple sources” to be one of the finalists, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets.  The Tigers are out of the running, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.

8:59pm: The Rangers and Cubs will both meet with Ohtani, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link), and they’re also the only two non-West Coast teams who appear to still be alive in the candidate process.  The Rangers, Grant notes, have yet to comment on their status one way or the other.

7:22pm: The Nationals won’t be receiving a meeting, the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reports (Twitter link).

6:58pm: The Braves are out, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter).

6:50pm: The Padres will receive a meeting with Ohtani, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links).  The Dodgers are also thought to still be active in the Ohtani sweepstakes though Heyman doesn’t have confirmation; regardless, the Dodgers aren’t thought to be favorites to land Ohtani.

6:38pm: The Rays, Cardinals and White Sox are out, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (all Twitter links).

6:15pm: The Diamondbacks won’t receive a meeting, Ken Rosenthal tweets.

6:12pm: The Blue Jays, Pirates, and Brewers are all out, as respectively reported by Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (all Twitter links).

5:48pm: The Mets are also out, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

5:38pm: Ohtani’s list is “heavy” on West Coast teams, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports, though the Cubs may still be involved.  Not every west-based team is included, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the A’s aren’t involved.

5:28pm: The Red Sox are also out of the running, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.  The Twins also won’t be getting a meeting with Ohtani, Heyman tweets.

5:16pm: The Giants and Mariners are among the teams that will receive meetings with Shohei Ohtani and his representatives next week, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  It isn’t known who the other finalists are in the Ohtani sweepstakes, though the Yankees are one of the teams that didn’t make the cut, as Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).

According to Cashman, Ohtani seems to be leaning towards West Coast teams in smaller markets.  This ties to a report from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman saying that Ohtani’s reps are informing teams that the two-way star would prefer to play in a smaller market.

The news adds another fascinating layer to the Ohtani sweepstakes, which was already one of the more intriguing free agent pursuits in recent memory.  Given the seeming lack of immediate financial motive that inspired Ohtani’s move to Major League Baseball, it opened the door for every team in baseball (regardless of market or payroll size) to make a push for the 23-year-old.  There had been speculation that Ohtani might look to avoid playing in a larger market, so this apparent confirmation creates a realistic possibility that he will land with a team that wouldn’t normally be considered a favorite to land such a coveted free agent.

Of course, San Francisco isn’t exactly a small market, though Ohtani wouldn’t necessarily be the center of attention on a club with such established stars as Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (and maybe even Giancarlo Stanton in the near future).  Playing for an NL team, however, would force Ohtani into a pinch-hitting or even a part-time outfield role for the at-bats he seeks in his attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues.  The Mariners do have such a DH spot available (in a timeshare with Nelson Cruz), and were considered to be a contender for Ohtani given their long history of Japanese players.

The Yankees also have had several significant Japanese players on their past and current rosters, and were widely seen as one of the major favorites for Ohtani’s services from a financial (in terms of available international bonus money) and positional (openings at DH and in the rotation) standpoint, not to mention their international fame and their young core of talent ready to make a World Series push.  With Ohtani now out of the picture, the Yankees could move to signing more pitching depth — a reunion with C.C. Sabathia has been widely speculated as a possibility — or a veteran bat to serve as designated hitter, if the club doesn’t just rotate its DH days to find plate appearances for everyone on the current roster.

Mets Reportedly Considering Adam Lind

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  • With the Mets exploring the possibility of bringing in a free-agent first baseman, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter) that Adam Lind is one potential name the team will consider. The interest in Lind suggests that the Mets are casting a fairly wide net, as they’ve also been linked to a higher-profile target in Carlos Santana. Speculating a bit, it also could suggest that the team isn’t giving up on Dominic Smith after a disappointing MLB debut in 2017. Signing Santana or any other higher-profile free agent would block Smith for years to come and likely turn him into a trade piece; bringing in a shorter-term stopgap like Lind, though, could give the Mets a strong platoon partner option to complement their right-handed infield bats early in the season in order to let Smith develop further. Lind slashed a robust .303/.364/.534 in 269 plate appearances against righties last season but could potentially be had on a one-year deal due to his age (34), longstanding platoon issues and a flooded market for platoon first basemen.

Quick Hits: Arrieta, Hosmer, Mets

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Cubs free agent Jake Arrieta figures to offer more “feast-or-famine probability” than any other free agent on the market, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com posits. Arrieta has exhibited a number of troubling trends since his dominant Cy Young campaign back in 2015. Kramer points out that the right-hander’s rate of hard contact allowed was once among the the lowest in baseball, but has since fallen to the middle of the pack. Arrieta has also lost 3 MPH on his fastball from 2015 to 2017; pitchers in their thirties typically don’t regain that velocity. Kramer digs even deeper, looking at Arrieta’s “topped ball” rate (balls hit directly into the ground), noting that his rate in this category has also dropped. These factors in tandem create a confusing and concerning picture when looking at the value Arrieta could provide over the next couple of years. It’s not all bad; Kramer also notes that the former Cy Young winner hasn’t lost his ability to put batters away on two-strike pitches, and he’s still got an excellent pitch repertoire to go along with a delivery that provides deception. Teams exploring a deal with Arrieta will face an interesting dilemma in trying to project his future performance.

Other items from around MLB…

  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has released his top five free agent bargains, as well as his top five free agent landmines. Royals free agent Eric Hosmer tops the list of players Cameron would avoid at the prices they’re likely to command. He points out that Hosmer’s 2017 was partially driven by his .351 BABIP, which the first baseman is unlikely to repeat, and questions his defensive abilities as well. Interestingly, Cameron points out that Hosmer’s 120 wRC+ over the past three seasons is just two points ahead of Carlos Santana’s mark across that same span, and yet Hosmer is expected to more than double Santana’s earnings in free agency this winter. None of this is to say that Hosmer isn’t a great asset, but many in the industry think he’ll be paid like a potential franchise superstar, and his track record doesn’t necessarily provide a strong case for that level of commitment. Greg Holland, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Nunez and Andrew Cashner round out Cameron’s top five free agent landmines, while Carlos Santana, Lorenzo Cain, Tommy Hunter, Jarrod Dyson and Doug Fister comprise Cameron’s top five bargains. The pieces are full of great analysis and will give readers another interesting set of storylines to track this offseason.
  • Mike Puma of the New York Post wonders whether the Mets would be best served to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, whom the club traded to the Brewers this past August. Though he spent a significant amount of time on the DL for the second straight season, his 2017 home run total (14) homers and OBP (.409) would be a welcome asset to a Mets club with a number of issues to tackle before opening day 2018. Puma also notes that the Mets are exploring some trade options at second base as well. Interestingly, he lists Jason Kipnis as a name he believes to be available, along with more obvious trade candidates in Ian Kinsler and Dee Gordon.

Latest On Mets’ Search For Relievers

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Though the free agent market has basically not yet budged, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been movement behind the scenes. The Mets, for instance, are working hard to land multiple veteran relievers, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post.

There’s particular interest, Puma writes (expanding upon his prior report), in veteran righty Bryan Shaw. The durable veteran worked with new Mets manager Mickey Callaway, who was previously the Indians’ pitching coach. That fact clearly gives the organization some added insight into a hurler who has steadily produced excellent results.

Another pitcher with a recent connection to Callaway has also caught the Mets’ eye, according to the report. Sidearmer Joe Smith, who broke into the big leagues with the Mets, is closing in on his 34th birthday but has a track record of consistently good innings that’s similar to Shaw’s. Interestingly, Smith exhibited a big jump in his swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and strikeout rate (11.8 K/9, against just 1.7 BB/9) in 2017.

Two others on the Mets’ watch list, according to the report, are lefty Mike Minor and former Mets righty Addison Reed. Both of those pitchers are in the same general range of sub-elite relievers as Shaw, though MLBTR has predicted that each would be able to secure an extra guaranteed season on the open market. It seems unlikely that the Mets would be able to take on two significant relief contracts in one winter, so perhaps the hope is to land one of those three (or another, similar pitcher) while also picking up a slightly cheaper option such as Smith — who just missed inclusion on MLBTR’s top fifty list but could certainly be a candidate for a significant, multi-year deal.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the Mets are able to strike an early deal with one of these pitchers. There’s surely broad interest in all of them, and getting something done now — before more significant dominoes fall — could mean extending an offer that meets or approaches the typically steep initial asking price. To take but one example, the Cardinals landed Brett Cecil last winter by giving him a fourth year and a no-trade clause, neither of which were anticipated when the market opened.

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