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Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom & Carlos Martinez

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Click here to view all of the 2017 projections.

Ever since Dontrelle Willis received $4.35 million in arbitration in 2006, it has been hard for first-time eligible starting pitchers to top his salary. The record stood for ten years, until last year Dallas Keuchel took home $7.25 million following a Cy Young Award-winning season. In the decade since Willis received his record first-year salary for starting pitchers, many pitchers have come extremely close to hitting his $4.35 million or have actually hit it. David Price matched Willis’ $4.35 million in 2012 and Shelby Miller did so last year. Seven other starting pitchers have earned between $4 and $4.35 million in the last decade as well.

Other pitchers who would likely have exceeded Willis’ record received multi-year deals, which usually removes them from consideration when looking for comparables. Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were both coming off Cy Young seasons when they received multi-year deals, and Lance Lynn and Cole Hamels also received multi-year deals and subsequently missed out on breaking the record as well. Many elite starting pitchers are worthwhile candidates for multi-year deals, so it is not surprising that few of them actually receive one-year deals and become comparables. Among pitchers in the last decade with 30 career wins, 450 career innings, career ERAs below 3.50 and at least 100 platform year innings, five of nine signed multi-year deals before reaching agreement on one-year deals for their first year of salary arbitration.

Modeling arbitration salaries is obviously something that requires much precision, but the psychological barrier of $4.35 million is something that emotionless mathematical modeling will miss. As a result, I have written several articles over the years in which I explained that certain pitchers who were projected just over $4.35 million probably would not actually do so. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez may be two such pitchers today, although Martinez is more likely to best that amount.

Jacob deGrom is coming off a mediocre platform year (for arbitration purposes) where he only won seven games amidst throwing 148 innings. Although his ERA was 3.04, lack of counting stats is likely to hurt his arbitration case. His career numbers may offset this—he has 30 career wins and a 2.74 ERA across 479.1 innings and has struck out 492 batters. He also won Rookie of the Year in 2014. His projection is $4.5 million, although I think there is good reason to believe that he will fall short of this.

Carlos Martinez has a much stronger case, and is projected to earn $5.3 million. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 195.1 innings with 174 strikeouts, and has a career 34-21 record with a 3.32 ERA in 492.2 innings with 466 strikeouts. Few pitchers can match his performance, and he may be able to top the old record of $4.35 million, although he will come nowhere near the new record. The peculiarity of Martinez’ case is that is that there are no comparable pitchers with salaries in the range between $4.35 and $7.25, so he will be filling in some empty space if he does exceed the old Willis number.

In the last five years, there have only been five pitchers who had 25 career wins, 400 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and career ERAs under 3.50 who did not sign multi-year deals. All five received between $3.97 and $4.35 million in arbitration. These include Shelby Miller at $4.35 million, Matt Harvey at $4.32 million, Doug Fister and Alex Cobb both at $4 million, and Stephen Strasburg at $3.97 million.

It is difficult to see a good reason why Jacob deGrom would earn above or below this range as a result. Although he had slightly fewer innings than all of them, Doug Fister in 2013 was coming off just 161.2 innings and Alex Cobb was coming off 166.1 innings. Both won 10 games, more than deGrom’s seven, but neither had a Rookie of the Year Award under his belt and deGrom’s career ERA is lower than both of theirs. He also has more strikeouts than either had in their careers at this point as well. As a result, I think he will probably top their $4 million salaries.

I think deGrom will struggle to top Matt Harvey’s $4.32 million from last season, though. Harvey had a better career ERA and a better platform ERA, along with many more platform innings. Something around $4.2 million seems likely for deGrom—below his $4.5 million projection.

Martinez, on the other hand, does seem like a likely candidate to top the five aforementioned starters’ earnings. None of them had more than 13 platform year wins, and Martinez had 16. His 3.04 ERA is in the middle of the pack for the group, but his 195.1 innings total is only bested by Miller. His 34 career wins are bested by Alex Cobb, but exceed the other four starters. His innings and strikeouts are similar to them as well.

All things considered, he has a clear cut case to beat the $4.35 million mark. Comparing him to Shelby Miller alone, he went 16-9 as compared with Miller’s 6-17 in his platform year. His platform year ERA was nearly identical and he threw only 10 less innings but had three more strikeouts than Miller. In his career, he has two more wins than Miller but 14 fewer losses. He also has a relatively similar ERA. Although he has thrown about eighty fewer innings, he has only struck out seventeen fewer batters. Martinez is likely to succeed in asking for a number higher than Miller’s $4.35. But given that the main difference is ten platform year wins, I believe he will probably not get the $5.3 million projection my model estimates. I think something between $4.5 and $5 million is likely for Martinez.

Both of these pitchers are projected for slightly more than they will probably earn. The symbolic barrier at $4.35 million is still a factor despite Keuchel’s new record, which was set up by his 232 innings of 2.48 ERA pitching and the hardware to match. Because of that, the model is likely to miss on starting pitchers near that until that symbolic barrier has been passed enough times.

Phillies Open To Adding Veteran Bat

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TODAY: Philadelphia has no realistic interest in Bautista, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. However, the other players mentioned previously — Saunders, Moss, and Bruce — are all said to be plausible targets.

YESTERDAY: The Phillies are still open to the idea of adding a veteran bat — likely an outfielder/first baseman — to their relatively young lineup, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Among the potential free-agent targets are Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, although the Phils are reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick (their first-rounder is protected) in order to add Bautista, Rosenthal adds. FanRag’s Jon Heyman wrote last week that the Phillies have some interest in Moss and would prefer any bat they add to be of the left-handed variety, and earlier today, CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury called the addition of another bat “likely,” speculating that Saunders and Moss could be potential targets.

Rosenthal also reports that a trade for Mets right fielder Jay Bruce is something the Phillies would consider, so long as they weren’t required to part with any significant prospects or MLB assets in the deal. (He brings up the trade that sent Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney to the Dodgers in exchange for Howie Kendrick and the trade of minor leaguer Josh Tobias to the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz as points of reference.)

[Related: Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]

Any of the four listed options would give the Phillies an alternative in right field to the current trio of Aaron Altherr, Tyler Goeddel and Roman Quinn, who figure to compete for outfield playing time this spring. Kendrick is likely to man left field, while the recently extended Odubel Herrera is poised to reprise his role as Philadelphia’s everyday center fielder. While adding a veteran could, in the eyes of some fans, block that trio, there’s certainly a case that each could use additional time in the minor leagues to develop.

Altherr, 26 later this month, missed most of the 2016 season due to a wrist injury and batted a woeful .197/.300/.288 in 227 plate appearances upon returning. He’s also tallied just 53 Triple-A games in his young career. Goeddel, who spent the entire season on the Phillies’ roster due to his status as a Rule 5 pick, looked more than overmatched at the plate, hitting just .192/.258/.291 in 234 trips to the plate. And while Quinn looked sharp in a 15-game September cameo, the 23-year-old speedster jumped from Double-A to the Majors and has yet to make even a single plate appearance in Triple-A.

Rosenthal does note that the Phillies aren’t keen on blocking any of their young players by handing out a long-term contract, implying that a one-year commitment to any of the free agents would be the likeliest option. (Bruce, meanwhile, is under contract for just one more season at $13MM and will be a free agent next winter.) Minimizing the commitment would allow GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail to keep multiple outfield spots open for the 2018 season, when the Phillies will have a better idea of what they can expect from players like Altherr, Quinn, Goeddel and prospects Nick Williams and Dylan Cozens. And, adding a veteran bat on a short-term commitment will of course give the still-rebuilding Phillies a potential midseason trade chip in the event that he performs well and generates interest from contenders in need of offensive improvements.

Bruce and Saunders figure to be strict outfield options, but there’s been some thought that a signing club could put Bautista at first base on occasion, and Moss of course has plenty of experience at that position himself. Moss would, in my mind, represent the best fit, as he’d also give the Phillies a potential platoon partner for Tommy Joseph (as Rosenthal also points out) while allowing the team to give a younger option a look in the outfield should he prove himself ready with a strong minor league performance.

Lastly, from a financial standpoint, the Phillies can comfortably afford to add any of the listed players. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez projects a modest $104MM payroll for the Phils over at Roster Resource — a drastic reduction from the $177MM Opening Day payroll the team carried as recently as 2014. Furthermore, the only guaranteed contract on the books beyond the 2017 season is that of Herrera, as veterans like Buchholz, Kendrick, Jeremy Hellickson, Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Andres Blanco are all on one-year pacts. Adding another one-year commitment to the ledger would allow the Phils to maintain plenty of flexibility as the team looks to continue adding to its young core and eyes a return to prominence in the NL East.

3 Remaining Needs: National League East

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To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.

In the first two editions of this series, Jeff Todd broke down the NL West and Mark Polishuk examined the AL East. Now a look at where the NL East’s five teams stand as the calendar flips:

Washington Nationals

  1. Bullpen: With Mark Melancon gone, the Nationals are currently projected to rely on Shawn Kelley (11 career saves) as their closer. Based on his output the past couple seasons, Kelley is worthy of the role, but there are durability concerns with the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Kelley has never thrown more than the 58 frames he tossed last season; more alarmingly, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who, per a study done by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum, comes with an elevated risk to eventually need another procedure. Even without Kelley’s injury history, acquiring relief help is in order. Washington got a combined 242 2/3 innings last season from Melancon, Yusmeiro Petit, Felipe Rivero, Matt Belisle, Jonathan Papelbon, Reynaldo Lopez and Marc Rzepczynski. Not a single one of them is a member of the organization anymore. Therefore, it would make sense to add at least one more veteran to the likes of Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez. The club already tried to re-sign Melancon and reel in Kenley Jansen, but those attempts failed. Even with those two off the board, free agency is hardly bereft of options. In the event Washington decides to stick with in-house choices, it has a couple intriguing youngsters in Koda Glover and Trevor Gott.
  2. Infield Depth: The Nationals’ infield depth took a hit with the loss of Danny Espinosa, and current free agent Stephen Drew could also be in another uniform next season. Either re-upping Drew, which is a possibility, or signing another veteran would give the team more proven insurance than Wilmer Difo (77 career plate appearances) behind second baseman Daniel Murphy, shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Murphy is capable of playing first base if Ryan Zimmerman endures another poor year or suffers an injury in 2017, but that would leave the team wanting at the keystone.
  3. Rotation Depth: In trading Lopez and Lucas Giolito to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton, the Nats subtracted some of their starting pitching depth. That’s somewhat concerning given that starters Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross are coming off injury-plagued years, which perhaps increases the need to add rotation insurance behind those two, Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez. A.J. Cole and Austin Voth might suffice thereafter, but there’s very little of intrigue beyond them (Double-A prospect Erick Fedde could crack the major leagues sometime next season, granted). The Nationals had an established veteran starter in camp last year in Bronson Arroyo, who ended up missing 2016 because of injuries, and could look for a similar depth option prior to next season.

New York Mets

  1. Outfield: There are only two corner outfield spots, yet the Mets arguably have four starting-caliber players on hand in Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce. Cespedes isn’t going anywhere, obviously, and Conforto’s place on the roster appears secure. The writing is on the wall, then, for either Granderson or Bruce (very likely the latter) to exit the organization via trade by next season. The Mets have been reluctant to deal Bruce without getting anything useful in return, but they might have to settle for dumping his salary in order to clear their corner outfield logjam and free up spending room. In doing so, New York would still face uncertainty in center field. Juan Lagares has fallen off since a strong 2014 showing that led the Mets to sign him to a four-year extension with $23MM in guarantees. Cespedes and Granderson also have experience in center, but neither is an ideal fit there. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen has come up as a trade possibility, but he was a defensive nightmare last season and the Mets aren’t actively looking to acquire him (or any other center fielder), anyway.
  2. Right-Handed Reliever: The Mets are going to lose closer Jeurys Familia to at least a month-long suspension, which will leave the team with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles as its go-to choices to preserve late leads. Mindful of that, general manager Sandy Alderson has checked in on the likes of Wade Davis (before the Royals traded him to the Cubs), Brad Brach (Orioles) and Alex Colome (Rays) on the trade front this winter, but nothing has materialized. White Sox closer David Robertson represents another possible acquisition, though he’d be a costly pickup. There are still appealing names on the open market, where Greg Holland, Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz and 2016 Met Fernando Salas are among those without contracts.
  3. Left-Handed Reliever: New York has three lefty relievers on its projected 25-man roster in Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker and Sean Gilmartin, but none had encouraging 2016 campaigns (in fairness to Edgin, he was on the rebound from 2015 Tommy John surgery and finished the year well). Jerry Blevins was terrific last season, but he’s now a free agent and, along with Boone Logan, one of the top two southpaw setup men left in free agency. The Mets have shown interest in each this offseason, but payroll limitations have prevented them from signing either (presumably, they’ve also stood in the way of securing right-handed help).

Miami Marlins

  1. Starting Pitcher: Forced to forge ahead without the late, great Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have made a couple unexciting additions to their rotation this winter with the signings of Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke. They now have a full starting five on paper with those two joining Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley and Tom Koehler, but it’s not the most confidence-inspiring group. With that in mind, Miami is still in the market for a starter, though it’s seemingly limiting itself to low-cost depth types. Luckily for the Marlins, there are plenty of those left in free agency.
  2. First Base: As long as they’re facing a right-handed pitcher, the Marlins are in fine shape at first base with Justin Bour. But, in an admittedly small sample size of 110 major league plate appearances, the lefty-swinging Bour has struggled mightily against southpaw hurlers (.223/.273/.291, no home runs). Thus, it would behoove the Fish to find a better platoon partner for Bour than the penciled-in Miguel Rojas – although a righty, he has posted a woeful .184/.225/.272 line versus lefties in 122 PAs. Any of Dae-ho Lee, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Plouffe, Adam Rosales or 2016 Marlin Chris Johnson could be realistic targets via free agency. Miami hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Johnson, who – despite a subpar 2016 – has historically held his own against lefties.
  3. Left-Handed Reliever: It’s not a must for the Marlins to find a southpaw reliever, as their most prominent righty options – A.J. Ramos, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Kyle Barraclough and Junichi Tazawa – are capable of getting all hitters out. Nevertheless, it would be nice for the club to have more than one left-handed reliever on its 40-man roster. As of now, only Hunter Cervenka is in the fold, though same-sided batters hit a paltry .198/.306/.318 against the then-rookie last season. Signing a free agent like Javier Lopez could make sense; even though the longtime Giant’s coming off a season to forget, he has a lengthy track record of success preventing runs and would like to remain close to his Georgia home.

Atlanta Braves

  1. Third Base: Their interest in Brian Dozier notwithstanding, the Braves appear to have a respectable offensive platoon lined up at second base with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez. On the other side of the diamond, finding a complement to right-handed-hitting third baseman Adonis Garcia would be beneficial. Garcia has hit an underwhelming .262/.293/.407 in 152 trips to the plate against righties, while reserve Chase d’Arnaud (also a righty) hasn’t done any better (.218/.278/.278 in 279 PAs). Free agent Luis Valbuena is a potential fit, but he’s an upgrade over Garcia in general and would warrant an everyday role. Otherwise, the aforementioned Stephen Drew – a left-handed hitter and Georgia native – could be a reasonable free agent target to pair with Garcia.
  2. Bullpen: As it stands, the Braves’ sole 30-something reliever is closer Jim Johnson, with Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol serving as only semi-established options. While it’s quite possible the Braves are comfortable with a mostly young bullpen that will also include Mauricio Cabrera and Jose Ramirez, among others, signing one of the many available veterans on a short-term deal would have a chance to pay dividends over the long haul. For example, the Braves could take a similar approach to last year’s Padres, who bought low on Fernando Rodney, got a few good months out of him and flipped him for a prospect prior to the trade deadline. That’s assuming the Braves aren’t contenders next year, of course.
  3. Catcher: With Tyler Flowers and Anthony Recker in the equation, this arguably isn’t a pressing short-term need for a rebuilding club, but free agent backstop Matt Wieters is nonetheless on Atlanta’s radar. It’s debatable how much of an upgrade (if at all) the ex-Georgia Tech star would be over Flowers, though. Wieters, unlike Flowers, is not a well-regarded pitch framer, and the longtime Oriole is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons. If Atlanta doesn’t land the switch-hitting Wieters, it’ll likely be content to roll with Flowers and Recker next season.

Philadelphia Phillies

  1. Corner Outfield: The Phillies’ most proven corner outfield bat belongs to Howie Kendrick, who has played 1,100 games at second base compared to just 114 in left field and is coming off a below-average offensive year. While the rebuilding club could simply utilize Kendrick and younger players like Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr and Tyler Goeddel (the latter two were dreadful in 2016) next season, dipping into free agency for another outfielder remains a possibility. If general manager Matt Klentak does sign anyone, odds are it’ll be a left-handed hitter. Of the previously mentioned four, only the switch-hitting Quinn is capable of batting from the left side.
  2. Bullpen: Klentak has revealed he’s looking for more relief help, though he has already been busy on that front throughout the offseason. Philadelphia has acquired three stopgaps in Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Sean Burnett (on a minor league deal), but its projected major league bullpen could stand to make improvements beyond Benoit, Neshek, Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez.
  3. Left-Handed Starter: The Phillies’ starting five at the moment features nothing but right-handers, and Adam Morgan is their only Triple-A starter who’s a southpaw. Perhaps it would be logical to sign a swingman like Travis Wood, who could initially work out of the bullpen (joining fellow lefty Joely Rodriguez) and then potentially factor into the rotation if someone suffers an injury or underperforms.

NL Notes: Giants, Mets, Rockies, Cardinals

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Giants GM Bobby Evans tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that Mike Morse was the one to reach out to the team about a possible minor league contract, and not vice versa. As Schulman notes, Morse spent much of the 2016 season in apparent retirement after being cut loose by the Pirates, but it seems he’s not quite ready to call it quits just yet. Morse is somewhat of a long shot to make the roster in Spring Training, and Schulman writes that Evans did not receive an indication of whether Morse would be willing to go to Triple-A if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. As it stands, he’ll compete with Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson for an outfield role. The Giants make plenty of sense as a landing spot for a corner outfielder right now, but Evans suggested to Schulman that he doesn’t plan to sign a big bat for the outfield. San Francisco will monitor what is a buyers’ market for corner outfielders in the months leading up to Spring Training, though, Schulman adds.

A few more notes from around the National League…

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that he doesn’t envision beginning extension talks with any of the team’s young rotation arms until Spring Training begins. “We’re not thinking about it now, it really hasn’t been our focus,” said Alderson. “It’s probably not something that is going to happen before we head to spring training.” Among Mets starters, Matt Harvey is in his second year of arbitration and is controlled through 2018, while Jacob deGrom is in his first trip through arbitration (as a Super Two player) and is controlled through 2020. However, both pitchers underwent season-ending surgery in 2016 — thoracic outlet syndrome for Harvey and an ulnar nerve repair for deGrom — so the Mets may want to see how they rebound from a medical perspective before engaging in talks. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz both stand out as logical extension candidates as well, as neither has reached arbitration yet, which could give a bit of extra incentive to talk long-term. Both pitchers are controlled through the 2021 season.
  • MLB.com’s Thomas Harding runs down a number of roster questions for the Rockies in his later Inbox column, noting within that he still expects GM Jeff Bridich to add another reliever either via trade or free agency. Harding also writes that Bridich is considering the possibility of adding a veteran catcher prior to Spring Training as well. The Rox have been asking for potential front-of-the-rotation pitchers in trade talks for Charlie Blackmon, Harding adds, which explains to some degree why the Rockies don’t appear to have had much in the way of advanced trade talks regarding Blackmon. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9MM salary for Blackmon next year. He’s controlled through 2018 via arbitration and is fresh off a career year in which he slashed .324/.381/.552 with 29 homers and 17 steals.
  • While some Cardinals fans were frustrated that the team didn’t make a big play for Edwin Encarnacion, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch dispels the notion that St. Louis’ lack of a push for Encarnacion was due to financial reasons. Goold reports that the Cardinals’ upcoming increase in television revenue — the team agreed to a $1.1 billion television contract in July 2015 — will give the team about $20MM more in rights fees in 2018 than it will earn in 2017. The column provides an excellent breakdown of the Cardinals’ payroll, noting that just under $46MM is coming off the books from 2016 while just over $47MM has been added to the 2017 ledger. The Cardinals certainly have the capacity to increase spending, Goold writes, but in the case of Encarnacion they simply weren’t all that interested in him as a player (at least not at his price tag). Per Goold, St. Louis’ interest in Encarnacion was only “mild.” (It doesn’t seem that the Cards are abandoning the idea of adding some right-handed pop to the lineup, though, as they were rumored to be “very much” in the mix for Twins second Brian Dozier earlier this afternoon.)

Mets Notes: Robertson, Conforto, Bruce, Hamilton

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The latest out of Citi Field…

  • The Mets “haven’t made a serious inquiry” about a trade for White Sox closer David Robertson this winter or at the last trade deadline, though New York hasn’t ruled out the possibility, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.  Chicago would ask for Michael Conforto in any Robertson deal, however, so it could be hard for the two sides to settle on a deal.  The White Sox weren’t looking for a big prospect return when they explored moving Robertson at the deadline, Ackert writes, though their current ask of Conforto reflects this offseason’s huge market for relief pitching.
  • Also in regards to a possible Robertson trade, since the Mets are unlikely to deal Conforto or another young talent for the closer, Metsblog.com’s Matthew Cerrone proposes that the White Sox should swap Robertson for Jay Bruce if they’re unable to find a team willing to surrender a good prospect for Robertson’s services.  The Sox would, if nothing else, save some money in the deal, as Bruce is owed $13MM in 2017 while Robertson is owed $25MM through 2018.  Bruce could also become a good trade chip at the deadline, which would allow the White Sox to eventually get the prospect they want.  The Mets would be taking on extra salary in this proposed deal, though allocating that money towards a strong relief arm is a better fit for the club than paying for a superfluous corner outfielder.
  • In another item from Cerrone, he reports that the Mets “had zero interest” in Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton last summer.  While Hamilton is an elite baserunner and defender, those skills were thought to be “unsustainable,” while the Mets also had issues with Hamilton’s strikeouts, low OBP and the fact that he’ll become more expensive over the next three years as he enters his arbitration years.  Hamilton has been speculatively linked to the Mets as a possible solution to their outfield conundrum, though if the Mets still have those concerns, there seems to be little chance they would meet Cincinnati’s reportedly high price tag for the center fielder.

East Notes: Harvey, Nationals, Mets, McCutchen

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Former big-leaguer Bryan Harvey says his son, Orioles prospect Hunter Harvey, could return to throwing next week after having Tommy John surgery in July, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. (Hunter Harvey himself told MASN’s Steve Melewski last week that he would begin throwing the day after Christmas.) Harvey’s progression will be slow, in keeping with the very long timeline associated with TJ recoveries — he won’t pitch off a mound for quite awhile. Still, he appears to be on schedule, and there’s a chance he could pitch near the end of the 2017 minor league season. Harvey, the 22nd pick in the 2013 draft, is currently the Orioles’ third-best prospect, according to MLB.com. He was off to a very promising start to his pro career in 2014 when he suffered an elbow injury that caused him to miss the entire 2015 season. He briefly returned in 2016 before it became clear Tommy John surgery was necessary. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Nationals’ search for a solution to their closer issues goes back nearly a decade, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. Janes identifies Chad Cordero — who had three good seasons in Washington from 2004 through 2006 — as the team’s last good long-term option at the position. Now, the departure of Mark Melancon and the team’s failure to sign Kenley Jansen fit in with a long-term pattern of the Nats missing out on long-term closer help. The team could now turn to an internal option like Blake Treinen or Shawn Kelley to take the ball in the ninth.
  • The Mets do not need to trade for Andrew McCutchen, who provides “a very convoluted answer to their outfield logjam,” Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. The Mets have been fleetingly connected to McCutchen, but he’s coming off a season in which he was poorly rated defensively and didn’t fare much better on offense. The McCutchen rumors indicated the Pirates would want pitching in return, but Ackert notes that the Mets themselves can use their young pitcher stockpile, and that their young arms are likely to be healthier in 2017 than they were last year.

Latest On Mets Outfield Situation

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10:03pm: Though there have been some discussions involving McCutchen, “there’s no traction there,” per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). New York is “not actively looking to upgrade” at the center-field position at this time, he adds.

9:18pm: On the selling side of the equation for the Mets, the Blue Jays “remain in talks” regarding both Bruce and Granderson, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter).

8:45pm: The Mets are at least looking into the possibility of a trade for a center fielder, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. He describes the organization as being “semi-engaged” in talks for a variety of possibilities.

Among the options, it seems, are a few high-profile veterans. There has been some “preliminary” talk with the Pirates on Andrew McCutchen, but there’s no present momentum towards a deal. Likewise, New York has spoken with the Royals, but doesn’t want to add a one-year rental in Lorenzo Cain and evidently is not excited about adding another speed/glove player in Jarrod Dyson, who Rosenthal says is viewed as being “too similar” to in-house option Juan Lagares.

There are other theoretical options that could be pursued, but Rosenthal notes that Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies and Billy Hamilton of the Reds don’t necessarily appear to represent matches. (Colorado doesn’t seem interested in dealing Blackmon, at least at a palatable price; Hamilton doesn’t deliver the kind of on-base threat that the Mets prefer, and he too is said to come with a high asking price.) The report does not indicate that the Mets have specifically considered or inquired about either player.

Of course, even if there was a clear target, matters are complicated by the fact that the Mets would need to pull off at least one other move to clear roster space. In addition to the center-field-capable Lagares, and newly re-inked left fielder Yoenis Cespedes, New York employs three left-handed-hitting options for right field: Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, and Michael Conforto.

While it has long been assumed that one of the two veterans (Granderson and Bruce) will end up being traded, adding a regular in center might entail finding takers for both. And the open market still has a few players that interested teams could view as alternatives. There’s certainly value in the fact that both of those options have only one year left on their contracts, but they aren’t exactly cheap seasons; Bruce is owed $13MM after the Mets picked up his option, while Granderson will earn $15MM in the final year of his free-agent deal. While one of the three in-house players could conceivably end up at first base, that’s already manned by southpaw-swinging Lucas Duda, and there’s no indication that the Mets have looked to find a taker for him in a market still flooded with lefty first base/DH bats.

As Rosenthal goes on to note, the Mets’ remaining needs in the bullpen also complicate matters. Trade partners will likely be interested in young talent at or near the majors, and if New York continues to hold off on dealing Conforto or top prospect Amed Rosario, it may well need to part with arms (such as Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo) to get a deal done. That would mean further paring back the depth in the relief corps, which already could stand to add one or two arms.

While there are obvious complications here for the Mets, it’s not hard to see the reasoning behind exploring the market for a center fielder. Lagares is still just 27 and still brings value with the glove, but hasn’t produced at the plate since signing his five-year extension before the 2015 season. While a platoon would make sense — his career OPS is about 100 points higher against lefties — the lefty bats mentioned above would be stretched defensively up the middle.

Purely hypothetically, if the Mets end up dealing one or more of their slugging corner bats, and can’t find a suitable trade for a regular center fielder, the alternative might be to add a lefty platoon piece that is capable of playing center. Potential options could include free agents Ben Revere and Michael Bourn, though neither impressed at the plate over the full course of the 2016 season.

NL East Notes: Klentak, Marlins, Swanson, Mets

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Some news from around the NL East…

  • Phillies GM Matt Klentak said his team is looking at adding another hitter or reliever, though neither move is a necessity, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes.  The hitter is likely to be a reserve outfielder, as the Phillies want to see what they have in their young outfielders as they continue their rebuilding process.  “We continue to prioritize roster flexibility and payroll flexibility so players that are in position to sign shorter term contracts are going to be more appealing to us,” Klentak said.
  • The Marlins have assembled their bullpen based on talent, fit and availability, without any specific regard to balance between left-handers and right-handers.  As a result, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes, Miami could head into 2017 with an entirely right-handed relief corps.  Hunter Cervenka and Elvis Araujo are the only southpaw relievers on the Marlins’ 40-man roster and either could potentially win a job in Spring Training, though both pitchers are way down depth chart at this point.
  • Dansby Swanson is “as close to untouchable as any Brave right now,” David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, as John Hart and John Coppolella are both very impressed by the young shortstop’s on-field talents and off-the-field intangibles.  “I don’t think you can put any playables or comparisons on him, I just know we’re better with him, and the whole is greater than the parts. This is a special guy that makes people around him better,” Coppolella said.  The White Sox reportedly wanted Swanson as part of a Chris Sale trade package earlier this offseason but the Braves refused to part with the former first overall draft pick.
  • The Mets are known to be shopping outfielders, though MLB.com’s Mike Petriello notes that even if New York deals one of Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson or Michael Conforto, it still creates an issue since neither Granderson or Conforto project as a good defensive center fielder.  Petriello instead proposes that the Mets could move two outfielders (either the two veterans, or Conforto with one of Granderson or Bruce to garner a bigger trade return) and then acquire an actual center fielder to properly fill the job.

Trade/FA Rumblings: Wieters, Nats, Mets, Rays, Braun, EE, Tribe

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There’s “rampant” speculation across the industry that free agent catcher Matt Wieters will sign with the Nationals, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider required and recommended). The Nationals traded for ex-Padres starting catcher Derek Norris earlier this month, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com then noted that they could sign Wieters and flip Norris elsewhere. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, is close with Nats owner Ted Lerner and president/general manager Mike Rizzo. The 30-year-old Wieters has spent his entire career in nearby Baltimore, but it may have replaced him Friday with the signing of Welington Castillo.

More offseason rumblings:

  • The Mets checked in with the Rays on closer Alex Colome, though talks didn’t go far because Tampa Bay asked for either outfielder Michael Conforto or elite shortstop prospect Amed Rosario as a starting point, per Peter Gammons (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). While the effective and cheap Colome would have helped shore up a Mets bullpen that will likely be without soon-to-be suspended closer Jeurys Familia for at least 30 games next season, it’s no surprise that they balked at the Rays’ asking price. Although Conforto took steps backward in 2016 after a great rookie campaign, the Mets regard the 23-year-old as nearly untouchable. The club feels similarly about Rosario, whom MLB.com ranks as the sport’s 11th-best prospect.
  • After the Brewers nearly dealt outfielder Ryan Braun to the Dodgers in August, there was a report that the two teams would revisit talks during the winter. There hasn’t been much offseason chatter regarding Braun, though, and one team executive told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that clubs are wary of his past performance-enhancing drug use. “When a guy with that contract has been busted once, it’s hard to commit those dollars and those player resources because if he gets busted again, you lose all of your guys and you lose Braun,” the exec said. “Nobody is saying he’d do it again, but while he’s a very good impact player, it’s just a tough one.” Braun served a 65-game suspension for PEDs in 2013 and later admitted to using them during his NL MVP-winning season in 2011. He returned from the suspension in 2014 to post so-so numbers (by his standards), but the 33-year-old has gone back to being a high-end offensive performer since. Braun is owed $76MM over the next half-decade, including a $4MM buyout in 2021.
  • Free agent designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion’s agent, Paul Kinzer, is discussing a long-term deal with “several teams,” relays Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. That probably doesn’t bode well for the Indians, observes Hoynes, who writes that the Tribe would rather ink the soon-to-be 34-year-old to a short-term contract. Encarnacion rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer, which means signing him would cost a first-round draft choice. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal suggested earlier this week that the Indians would be hesitant to sacrifice a top pick for a stopgap. Between that and Hoynes’ report, it seems Cleveland is a long shot to land Encarnacion.

East Notes & Rumors: Trumbo, O’s, Familia, Nats, Yanks

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Contract talks between the Orioles and free agent outfielder/first baseman Mark Trumbo have stalled, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The two sides previously agreed to a four-year framework, but Baltimore’s offer is now off the table, per Kubatko, who notes that a deal could still come together (Twitter link). In 2016, his first (and perhaps only) season as an Oriole, Trumbo hit .256/.316/.533 with a major league-high 47 home runs. Along with the O’s, the Rockies, Indians, Mariners and Rangers are among the clubs that have shown interest in the soon-to-be 31-year-old this offseason.

More from the majors’ two East divisions:

  • Domestic violence charges against Mets closer Jeurys Familia were dropped Thursday, but he’ll still face at least a 30-game suspension next season, per Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. A 30-game ban would be identical to the punishment Major League Baseball levied on Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman last year. Like Familia, Chapman didn’t face any legal ramifications for his domestic violence incident. Rob Manfred regarded Chapman’s case as serious enough to warrant an unpaid month off, though, and the commissioner is currently investigating Familia. Bianca Rivas, Familia’s wife, said he didn’t hurt her Oct. 31, but the police who responded to her 911 call noticed a bruise on her cheek and scratches on her chest. The scratches came from the couple’s 1-year-old son, according to Rivas.
  • After trading away infielder Danny Espinosa last week, the Nationals are searching for outside bench help, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Nats have expressed interest in re-signing free agent infielder Stephen Drew, who joined the team last year on a one-year, $3MM deal and hit .266/.339/.524 in 165 plate appearances. However, Drew might end up finding a more prominent role elsewhere. “He’s been offered some,” Drew’s agent, Scott Boras, said at the winter meetings. “So he’s just kind of evaluating the options of carrying out a multiple-position role and probably playing more than he did last year, or pursuing something more along the lines (of what he was for the Nationals this year).” If Washington doesn’t acquire an Espinosa replacement from elsewhere, the club does have 24-year-old Wilmer Difo on hand as a potential solution. He has just 77 big league PAs to his name, though.
  • Given that they haven’t added anyone to their rotation this winter, the Yankees are positioning themselves to rely heavily on unproven starters in 2017, observes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia and Michael Pineda are locks for the starting five; behind them, Luis Severino, Chad Green Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell and Adam Warren will vie for roles. The most intriguing member of the group is Severino, who endured a miserable 2016 with an 8.50 ERA in 47 2/3 major league innings as a starter. That was only Severino’s age-22 season, though, and the former big-time prospect isn’t far removed from a highly promising 2015 debut in which he recorded a 2.89 ERA, 8.09 K/9 and 50.3 percent ground-ball rate in 62 1/3 frames. “My emphasis at the end of the year with him was locate your fastball better, repeat your delivery and make sure your breaking ball morphs back into a harder breaking ball,” pitching coach Larry Rothschild told Sherman. “I certainly look at him as a starter. But to be a starter, improvements need to be made. If the improvements are made, he will be really good.”
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