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Mets Sign Chad Smith To Minor League Contract

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The Mets signed reliever Chad Smith to a minor league contract over the weekend, according to the Associated Press. He’ll be in MLB camp as a non-roster Spring Training invitee.

Smith, a 28-year-old righty, has made brief appearances at the MLB level in each of the past two seasons. The Ole Miss product debuted with the Rockies in 2022, allowing 15 runs across 18 innings. Colorado traded him to the A’s a little more than a year ago. Smith pitched 10 times for Oakland, tossing 13 2/3 frames of 10-run ball. Between the two clubs, he owns a 7.11 ERA at the highest level.

While those aren’t especially impressive results, Smith has kept the ball on the ground at a huge 55.2% clip in his limited MLB time. He has posted high grounder marks throughout his professional career. Smith has also run decent strikeout numbers in the minors, including a 26.6% rate over three years in Triple-A.

That combination of whiffs and grounders has thus far been undercut by subpar control. Smith has walked more than 15% of batters faced in his big league time while handing out free passes at a 13.4% clip in Triple-A. His already alarming walk percentage spiked to 17.3% for the A’s top affiliate a season ago. That contributed to a 7.53 ERA over 35 appearances, leading Oakland to outright him from their 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason.

The Mets have added a number of depth players in David Stearns’ first winter leading baseball operations. New York has signed Trayce Thompson, Rylan Bannon, Taylor Kohlwey and José Iglesias to non-roster deals, while Smith joins Cole Sulser, Kyle Crick, Cam Robinson and Andre Scrubb as minor league additions to the relief corps. The Mets have also added Yohan Ramirez, Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams to the 40-man roster via modest acquisitions.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

Angels, Giants Among Teams Pursuing Blake Snell

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The Angels have lost Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers and never appeared to be a finalist for NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they’re pursuing the biggest fish remaining on the free agent market, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who reports that the Halos have made reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell “their priority” now that Ohtani has officially departed. The Giants, too, are interested in Snell, per Slusser.

Signing Snell would be a departure from the norm for either club. The Angels’ three-year commitment to Tyler Anderson last offseason was the organization’s first multi-year deal for a free agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton to a two-year contract a decade prior. Owner Arte Moreno has been comfortable with long-term deals for position players — oftentimes mega-deals that haven’t worked out favorably (Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, Josh Hamilton) — but has generally been wary of similar commitments to pitchers. The Angels did pursue Gerrit Cole when he was a free agent, but they of course lost out to the Yankees’ then-record bid of $324MM. (Yamamoto topped that mark by $1MM when he agreed to terms with the Dodgers.)

Similarly, the Giants have eschewed long-term deals for starting pitchers in five years under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. San Francisco hasn’t gone beyond three years on any starting pitcher under the current regime — arguably a shrewd philosophy but also the reason that Kevin Gausman is starring for the Blue Jays on what now looks to be a wildly affordable five-year, $110MM contract. Zaidi’s club has gone to three years to sign Anthony DeSclafani and issued two-year deals for veterans Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, but longer-term pacts haven’t been in this front office group’s playbook.

Then again, the Giants also haven’t been consistently successful under this front office regime. Their 107-win season in 2021 stands as a clear highlight, but the Giants have fallen well shy of the lofty expectations set by that outlier season. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggested earlier this week in his latest Giants mailbag that ownership could be providing “a little more direction from above” than in prior offseasons — particularly when it comes to this sort of long-term pursuit (one that, as Baggarly rightly notes, is largely possible by virtue of the front office’s prior aversion to taking on this sort of long-term risk). To be clear, Baggarly wasn’t addressing Snell in particular but rather the general philosophical shift associated with pursuing larger-scale additions from the free-agent market.

From a payroll vantage point, both the Halos and Giants can handle a weighty commitment to Snell, who’s reportedly been seeking a commitment of $200MM or more. San Francisco currently projects for a $158MM payroll, per Roster Resource, to say nothing of the fact that the Giants are about $45MM shy of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold. (Luxury tax is calculated by the sum of the average annual value on the payroll and can thus differ from the bottom-line dollars paid out in a given year; contracts are often backloaded or frontloaded for varying purposes.) The only two players signed beyond the 2025 season are ace Logan Webb (five years, $90MM from 2024-28) and newly signed center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who inked a six-year, $113MM pact.

As for the Angels, they’re stuck paying the aforementioned Rendon $38MM for each of the next three seasons on his backloaded deal. There’s little no hope of trading that cumbersome contract away, so the team can only hope for a return to his Nationals form — unlikely as it may be as he enters his age-34 season. Anderson is signed through 2025 at $13MM per season, and the Angels still owe former MVP Mike Trout $34.45MM annually through the 2030 season.

Even with the huge commitments to Trout and Rendon, the Angels project for a $152MM payroll in 2024 and sit at just $167MM in terms of luxury-tax obligations. That leaves ample room to sign Snell, even if doing so would require shattering the franchise-record for a starting pitcher contract (Jered Weaver’s five-year, $85MM deal).

It stands to reason that with both Ohtani and Yamamoto now off the board, the market for Snell will continue to crystalize in the coming weeks. Several runners-up for Yamamoto, in particular, could pivot to consider Snell — although various reports out of New York have indicated that the Mets aren’t expected to be among them. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote last weekend that the Mets weren’t planning to pursue other top-tier free agents if they fell short in their bid for Yamamoto, whom they considered to be uniquely aligned with their long-term plan given his youth. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo echoed that sentiment today, reporting that the Mets shouldn’t be expected to pursue Snell or fellow free agent Jordan Montgomery.

Latest On Yankees’, Mets’ Failed Pursuits Of Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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The Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes ended late last night when the 25-year-old right-hander agreed to a 12-year deal with the Dodgers worth $325MM. The massive figure is a record for free agent pitchers (aside from two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with LA earlier this month) as Yamamoto slightly surpassed Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM guarantee with the Yankees.

Among the most aggressive suitors for Yamamoto’s services aside from the Dodgers were the two New York teams. Both the Yankees and Mets met with Yamamoto multiple times and reportedly made offers that appeared to match or even exceed LA’s in terms of aggressiveness. Previous reporting indicated that the Mets offered Yamamoto a matching $325MM guarantee while the Yankees offered $300MM over just ten years, boosting the deal’s average annual value to $30MM. In the aftermath of Yamamoto’s decision to head to Los Angeles, more details regarding both clubs’ ultimately fruitless pursuits of the right-hander have come to light.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto exceeded that of the Dodgers’ in a few key areas despite offering $25MM less in terms of total guarantee. In addition to the aforementioned higher AAV, Rosenthal indicates the Yankees were willing to offer Yamamoto opt-out opportunities after the 2028 and 2032 seasons, both one year earlier than the opt-out opportunities he received in his contract out west. The differences in those offers are more meaningful than they may immediately appear. Had Yamamoto signed in the Bronx, he would have had the opportunity to hit free agency for a second time before his 30th birthday, while his deal with the Dodgers will offer him his first chance to opt-out after his age-30 season. Generally, players younger than 30 are widely considered to be far more attractive candidates for long-term deals than those older.

In addition to the potentially more lucrative opt-out situation, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto was not back-loaded, as his deal with the Dodgers reportedly is. That the contract Yamamoto ultimately agreed to is back-loaded is no small factor; not only does that mean that the deal’s present day value is diminished somewhat, it also means Yamamoto would be leaving a larger portion of his guaranteed money on the table by opting out of his contract with the Dodgers. No such concern would exist with the Yankees’ offer.

For the Mets’ part, Mike Puma of the New York Post indicates that the club’s 12-year, $325MM offer to Yamamoto was “among the first received” by the right-hander, and that the club was not offered the chance to improve upon that offer. Puma goes on to note, however, that the club may not have significantly raised their bid above that $325MM figure due to the roughly $50MM posting fee the club would have owed to Yamamoto’s NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, had a deal come together.

The Mets have long been expected to largely avoid top-of-the-market bidding wars for starting pitchers this offseason if they were to miss on Yamamoto, and club owner Steve Cohen seemingly confirmed that stance in conversation with reporters today. As relayed by Puma, Cohen discussed a more cautious approach to free agency this offseason than in previous seasons under his ownership.

“We’re going to be thoughtful and not impulsive and thinking about sustainability over the intermediate long-term, but not focused on winning the headlines over the next week,” Cohen said. “I think there’s a couple of ways to build a team… We’ll build it. It will happen. Slowly and surely you will see changes and improvements.”

Such a measure approach to the 2023-24 offseason has seemed to be a possibility in Queens ever since veteran right-hander Max Scherzer indicated last summer that the club viewed 2024 as “a kind of transitory year” with 2025 and 2026 as the club’s true focus in terms of returning to contention. Since then, the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto has largely taken center stage as the club has made smaller moves on the periphery, adding Luis Severino and Joey Wendle in free agency while picking up Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor in trade.

One factor that may have helped the Dodgers in their pursuit of Yamamoto, as discussed by Rosenthal, is the $50MM signing bonus he’ll receive as part of the contract. Rosenthal notes that Yamamoto’s bonus, paid entirely in 2024, would not be subject to California state taxes so long as he is not a resident of the state. That structure reportedly could save the right-hander as much as $7.2MM. Perhaps even more valuable than that savings would be the Dodgers’ unique position to accommodate his transition to the majors. NPB teams typically use six-man rotations with starters expected to pitch just once a week, making the move to MLB a significant jump in workload for overseas arms.

As noted by Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times, the Dodgers are all but guaranteed to plan on a six-man rotation for the 2025 season given the expected return of Ohtani to the mound that season. The lessened workload could help Yamamoto stay healthy throughout his big league career, which DiGiovanna relays is perhaps the primary concern of scouts regarding his future in the majors thanks to his undersized 5’10”, 176lb frame. Of course, there’s no guarantee that such an arrangement will be the plan for the Dodgers in 2024, when Ohtani will be rehabbing UCL surgery. Even so, DiGiovanna notes that the Dodgers’ starters appeared on regular rest in just 42 regular season games last season, leaving the door open for Yamamoto to get extra days of rest built into his schedule even if the club doesn’t go with a proper six-man rotation.

Giants Out Of Bidding For Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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9:06pm: Yamamoto could make his decision within the next 48 hours, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

7:55pm: MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that Yamamoto has at least one offer of $300MM or more in hand.

6:59pm: The Giants have been informed they’re out of the running for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (X link). While there’s no indication that Yamamoto has made his final decision, Pavlovic adds the Giants expect he’ll sign with the Dodgers or one of the New York clubs.

Andy Martino of SNY tweets that the Mets have not received any indication they’re out of the running. That’s also true of the Yankees, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Heyman indicates the Yankees have put a “significant bid” on the table.

Crossing San Francisco off the list technically leaves six known finalists. In addition to the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, the Blue Jays, Phillies and Red Sox have been involved. Philadelphia has made an offer this week. That said, reports have cast the Phils, Jays, and (to a lesser extent) the Sox as longer shots.

Yamamoto has been weighing offers throughout the week. While he technically has until the evening of January 4 to sign, the expectation is that he won’t take things to the wire. That his camp is now in the process of whittling the field lends credence to the idea that a decision might not be far off.

The bidding seems as if it’ll surpass $250MM, before accounting for a posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes that could tack on another $45-50MM. That fee is in proportion to the contract size, calculated as 20% of the deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of additional spending. That reflects Yamamoto’s atypical youth for a free agent pitcher (25) and his sheer dominance in Japan. Named NPB’s best pitcher three years running, he’s coming off a 1.21 ERA while striking out nearly 27% of opponents in 164 innings.

It’s a tough blow for the Giants, who come up short on another top-tier free agent. The Giants have missed on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Shohei Ohtani within the past two offseasons alone, while their deal with Carlos Correa fell through because of the physical. Yamamoto will join that list. San Francisco did land KBO star Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM pact — the largest deal of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as baseball operations president — but they haven’t gotten a truly elite free agent in some time.

San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity as they decide on their next steps. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $158MM. That’s about $30MM below this year’s Opening Day figure. From a luxury tax perspective, they’re almost $45MM south of the base threshold. That opens the possibility for a run at any of the top remaining free agent talents. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery headline the rotation class, while Matt Chapman was on the radar earlier in the offseason. So was the top available hitter, Cody Bellinger, although the Lee signing seems to rule out a pursuit of another lefty-swinging center fielder.

Mets Acquire Adrian Houser, Tyrone Taylor From Brewers

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The Mets have acquired right-hander Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers for right-handed minor leaguer Coleman Crow, per announcements from both clubs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Houser and Taylor were going to the Mets for a minor leaguer. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that Crow would be that minor leaguer.

David Stearns is plenty familiar with Houser and Taylor, having spent many years calling the shots in Milwaukee before becoming president of baseball operations for the Mets a couple of months ago. In both cases, the player has had some major league success but had reached arbitration and was in competition for playing time in Milwaukee. Instead, they will head to a Mets club that has been primarily focused on depth moves this offseason, while allowing the Brewers to clear a bit of payroll.

Houser, 31 in February, has been a solid contributor for the Brewers in the past five seasons, mostly as a starter. From 2019 to the present, he’s appeared in 120 games, 97 of those being starts. In his 523 2/3 innings pitched, he has an earned run average of 4.04. His 19.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate aren’t especially strong but he’s kept 52.5% of balls in play on the ground.

He has just over five years of service time, meaning he’s slated for free agency after 2024. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $5.6MM next year. Houser might project as merely a back end starter with just one year of control, but that’s still a relative bargain compared to free agents. The Mets paid $13MM to get Luis Severino for one year, while other clubs have given out comparable deals. Jack Flaherty got $14MM, Kyle Gibson $13MM, Lance Lynn $11MM, Wade Miley $8.5MM and Martín Pérez $8MM.

In Milwaukee, Houser was slated to be behind Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Miley, battling pitchers like Colin Rea, Joe Ross, Janson Junk, Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser for starts. But instead, he’ll jump to a somewhat similar spot with the Mets. His new club has Kodai Senga, José Quintana and Severino in three spots, with pitchers like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto options for the back end. The club has been heavily linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and everyone would move down one spot if they successfully land him, but Houser should be in line for a role at the back of the rotation either way. He will have a leg up on Megill, Lucchesi and Butto in the sense that they can still be optioned to the minors but Houser cannot, as a player with more than five years of service time.

Taylor, 30 in January, seemed to establish himself as a viable big leaguer in 2021 and 2022. He got into 213 games for the Brewers over that stretch, hitting 29 home runs and slashing .239/.300/.448 for a wRC+ of 104. He also got strong grades for his outfield defense in all three spots and produced 3.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

But he dealt with an elbow sprain in Spring Training this year, which caused him to miss the first month of the season and then another month-plus in the middle of the year. He only got into 81 games and had diminished production when in the lineup, hitting .234/.267/.446 on the year.

He reached arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected to make $1.7MM, with two years of control beyond that. He was also going to be part of a crowded outfield mix in Milwaukee that includes Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, Joey Wiemer and Chris Roller.

With the Mets, they have Brandon Nimmo in center but the corners are more questionable. Starling Marte was dealing with groin issues in 2023, missing roughly half the season and struggling when on the field. DJ Stewart finished the season on a hot streak at the plate but is a poor defender and better suited to be rotating through the designated hitter spot or pinch-hitting duties. Taylor’s righty bat could also potentially platoon with the lefty Stewart. Taylor has fairly neutral splits in his career but Stewart has been far better with the platoon advantage.

Crow, 23 later this month, was drafted by the Angels. He was traded to the Mets in the Eduardo Escobar deal in June but underwent Tommy John surgery in August, meaning he may miss most or all of the 2024 season. At the time of the Escobar trade, he was ranked the Angels’ #17 prospect at Baseball America and #8 at FanGraphs. He’s currently listed 25th in the Mets’ system at BA and 20th at FG. He tossed 128 Double-A innings in 2022 with a 4.85 ERA.

Aside from their pursuit of Yamamoto, the Mets have mostly been focused on adding depth this winter. They have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers. They have given one-year deals to Severino, Joey Wendle, Michael Tonkin, Jorge López and Austin Adams. They have also given minor league deals to Cole Sulser, Kyle Crick, José Iglesias, Taylor Kohlwey, Rylan Bannon, Trayce Thompson and Cam Robinson. Now they have bolstered their rotation and outfield with a couple of solid regulars.

For the Brewers, they are cutting a projected $7.3MM from their 2024 payroll. They are subtracting a bit of depth in the process but still have plenty of other options for their rotation and outfield even after this deal, while taking a flier on a long-term prospect in Crow.

Roster Resource currently pegs next year’s payroll at $104MM, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There have been plenty of trade rumors this winter surrounding guys like Burns and Willy Adames, but it doesn’t appear as though the club needs to make a move of either of those guys just for payroll purposes, assuming they are willing to have a similar payroll to 2023.

As for the Mets, they are taking on that $7.1MM but could end up paying more. RR currently has their competitive balance tax number at $298MM, just above the fourth and highest threshold of $297MM. As a third time payor, their tax rates in each bracket are 50%, 62%, 95% and 110%. But the tax isn’t calculated until the end of the year. If the club isn’t competitive at the deadline and they trade some players with notable salaries, they could change their final position. Though signing Yamamoto for something in the $250-300MM range would obviously push them even further beyond their current level.

Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Mets Acquire Yohan Ramirez

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The Mets announced Monday that they’ve acquired right-hander Yohan Ramirez from the White Sox in exchange for cash. Ramirez was designated for assignment by the ChiSox last week.

Ramirez appeared in just five games for the White Sox, who acquired him from the Pirates via an early-September waiver claim. He yielded four runs in four innings with the South Siders but had pitched to a solid 3.67 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate in 34 1/3 innings.

Now 28 years old, Ramirez made his big league debut with the Mariners in 2020 and has appeared in every MLB season since. He’s totaled 124 innings of 3.99 ERA ball as a big leaguer, striking out 23.2% of his opponents against a 12.5% walk rate that’s well north of the league average. Ramirez was a fly-ball pitcher early in his career but switched from a four-seamer to a two-seamer in 2022 and has since been a pronounced ground-ball arm (54.1%).

Scouting reports on Ramirez from his prospect days praised his stuff across the board but noted that he lacked command. That’s played out through much of his big league tenure to date, but the pieces for a quality reliever are clearly present. He’s out of minor league options, so the Mets will have to either carry Ramirez on the Opening Day roster or else trade him, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers prior to the end of spring training.

Mets, Yankees Reportedly Holding Second Meetings With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto reportedly met with a contingent of Mets officials including owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, manager Carlos Mendoza, and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner at Cohen’s home Saturday night, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s the second known meeting between the Mets and Yamamoto this offseason following Cohen’s trip to Japan earlier this month. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Yamamoto will also hold a second meeting with the Yankees while he’s in New York.

Yamamoto, 25, is widely regarded as the top starting pitcher on the free agent market this offseason. His market has begun to heat up in recent weeks, with a report earlier this month indicating that seven top suitors had emerged in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. Subsequent reports have indicated that each of the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, and Phillies have met with Yamamoto, leaving that group as the likely finalists for the youngster’s services. While Martino reports that discussions between the Mets and Yamamoto have not yet reached the stage of a formal offer, Sherman indicates that the bidding process between interested clubs is expected to “intensify” this coming week, with a resolution expected before the end of the calendar year. That’s hardly a surprise, as Yamamoto’s posting window expires on January 4.

With so many big market teams involved in the bidding process, rumors have swirled that Yamamoto’s final price tag could exceed $300MM. Though that hefty sum could factor in the posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes as compensation for Yamamoto’s services, it would nonetheless be an astounding contract for the right-hander. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole’s $324MM pact currently standing as the only contract (except that of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) among starting pitchers to reach the $300MM threshold. That Yamamoto could even approach that stratosphere without having even thrown a pitch in the majors is a testament to his unique combination of youth and immense talent. Across seven seasons with the Buffaloes, Yamamoto has never posted an ERA above the 2.35 figure of his rookie season and has posted sub-2.00 ERAs in four of his last five seasons, including a microscopic 1.16 ERA in 171 frames this past season.

After parting ways with future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline over the summer, the Mets could certainly use the sort of front-of-the-rotation caliber arm Yamamoto projects to be. While the club has already added Luis Severino to its starting staff this offseason, even a bounce-back season from the righty would leave the Mets with holes to fill in a rotation that includes little certainty behind Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana. Righty Tylor Megill and lefty Joey Lucchesi appear to be the most likely internal candidates to round out the club’s rotation as things stand.

As for the Yankees, the club is in a somewhat similar boat with little certainty behind Cole. Though lefties Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon have both flashed front-of-the-rotation potential in the past, both southpaws are coming off down seasons in 2023 during which they were plagued by injuries and under performance. Meanwhile, the club has little depth outside of that trio and Clarke Schmidt after shipping rotation candidates Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to the Padres in exchange for Juan Soto earlier this month.

One wrinkle in the New York clubs’ pursuits of Yamamoto is their backup plans should he ultimately sign elsewhere. While the Yankees are generally expected to pivot to other top-of-the market arms such as Shota Imanaga in the event they fail to sign Yamamoto, the Mets appear unlikely to do the same. Recent reports have indicated that Stearns’s front office is not expected to pivot to other top-of-the-market options like Imanaga, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell in the event that the club misses on Yamamoto. Per the report, the Mets view Yamamoto as a uniquely valuable player worth splurging on, but would otherwise prefer to focus on shorter-term deals for mid-market arms such as Lucas Giolito as they look to rebuild their rotation mix.

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