Poll: Will Pete Alonso Return To The Mets?
The first base market started to move rapidly late in 2024, as players like Josh Naylor, Paul Goldschmidt, Nathaniel Lowe, and Carlos Santana came off the trade and free agent markets. That movement did not work its way up to the top of the market at the time, but since the New Year started, buzz surrounding Pete Alonso‘s free agency has grown louder. Alonso’s camp reportedly approached the Mets to pitch a three-year deal with opt-outs last week. The two parties have since discussed that structure but still face a gap in numbers. Notably, the Mets are said to be pressing for a definitive conclusion sooner than later.
That Alonso’s market has seemingly dropped into the short-term, high annual salary range is notable but not necessarily a shock, given how frequently that approach has been taken by stars who linger on the market in recent years. Shortstop Carlos Correa‘s first deal with the Twins is perhaps the most notable example, but it’s become more widespread in the years since that deal with Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman signing deals of that nature last offseason alone. This winter, free agents like Jack Flaherty and Anthony Santander have reportedly joined Alonso in beginning to consider short-term offers.
For a Mets club that has tended to avoid making long-term commitments to players already in their 30s (particularly since hiring David Stearns as president of baseball operations), the idea of getting Alonso back in the fold on a short-term deal has to be appealing. It would hardly be a surprise if Alonso was hoping to land a deal that guarantees him $30MM or more annually, or at least is front-loaded in such a way that he could opt out of the deal next winter and walk away with $30MM or more — similar to Bellinger’s three-year deal with the Cubs. The Mets are surely hoping to minimize risk on their end to avoid a situation where Alonso opts in and becomes an anchor on the roster.
While the Mets have long been considered the favorite and most logical landing spot, they aren’t the only club with interest in Alonso. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, and Giants have all been connected to Alonso since the new year began. Most of that quartet already has a set first baseman, but none sported a top-ten offense in MLB last year and each of the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays were below-average in terms of home run power. That makes it easy to envision a slugger of Alonso’s caliber making a difference for any of those clubs, even in the event that he doesn’t return to the more well-rounded form he flashed in 2022 as a four-WAR player with a .352 on-base percentage.
The Mets, meanwhile, could theoretically consider a number of alternatives. In particular, Santander has been connected to the Mets as a potential backup. A few budget options seem to be under consideration as well, including a reunion with Jesse Winker. Should the Mets pivot towards adding in the outfield, they could end up using a mix of internal options at the infield corners. Mark Vientos can move to first base, while Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Luisangel Acuna could vie for time at the hot corner. Alex Bregman is still out there in free agency, and Nolan Arenado is on the trade market. But if the Mets can’t find three-year terms with Alonso that are to their liking, it’d be a surprise if they signed another 30-year-old infielder who’s seeking a long-term deal (Bregman) or traded for a 34-year-old infielder who’s still owed $74MM (Arenado).
Given the imperfect fit for Alonso with many of his other suitors and the Mets’ lack of obvious proven alternatives, the most straightforward way for both sides to get what they want is to close the gap in negotiations and work out a deal. That’s easier said than done, of course, and until a deal is in place, another club like the Giants or Blue Jays could swoop in with a compelling short-term offer of its own. If Alonso remains unsigned into spring training, an injury to a contending club’s first baseman could open further possibilities.
How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between the two sides going forward?
Will Pete Alonso Be A Met In 2025?
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Yes, he'll re-sign with the Mets. 56% (6,485)
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No, he'll end up elsewhere. 44% (5,114)
Total votes: 11,599
Mets Interested In Tim Hill
The Mets have “been interested lately” in left-hander Tim Hill, Newsday’s Tim Healey reports. Hill has now drawn some looks from two different New York boroughs, as the Yankees were also linked to Hill’s market last month.
Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, Phil Maton, Drew Smith, Brooks Raley, and Ryne Stanek are all free agents, and the Mets have largely looked to replace this relief depth with an influx of minor league signings and waiver claims. Griffin Canning was signed to a big league deal and looks to be part of the bullpen mix, as well. Amidst all of these moves, however, Danny Young is the only southpaw bullpen option on the 40-man roster, so the Mets certainly have a need for more left-handed pitching help.
Signing Tanner Scott would certainly address the bullpen balance in a major fashion, yet regardless of whether or not the Mets’ pursuit of Scott pans out, a veteran arm like Hill would also help. Hill got a taste of the New York spotlight last season, when he posted an outstanding 2.05 ERA over 44 regular-season innings with the Yankees and then a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 playoffs innings.
A .238 BABIP certainly contributed to that success in the pinstripes, and for an extreme groundball pitcher like Hill, batted-ball luck has largely contributed to his ebbs and flows over his seven MLB seasons. Hill has a 3.99 ERA across 322 1/3 career innings with the Royals, Padres, White Sox, and Yankees, with an excellent 61.8% grounder rate. He was an average strikeout pitcher at best in the early part of his career, but Hill’s strikeout rate has dropped to just 11.8% over the last three seasons. The decrease in strikeouts has also generally coincided with a dropoff in home runs, as keeping the ball in the park was also an issue for Hill earlier in his career.
Hill turns 35 in February, and given how two rough months with the White Sox preceded his strong showing in the Bronx, the left-hander will surely land just a one-year contract in free agency. That might fit well with David Stearns’ usual approach to investing in relief pitching, as the Mets president of baseball operations has rarely spent much on bullpen arms, instead preferring to develop relievers from within or to find hidden gems on minor league deals.
Latest On Mets, Pete Alonso
7:28PM: Alonso and the Mets “are said to be making progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that’s expected to be for three years and include at least one opt out,” according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman. “While the sides appear amenable to that short-term structure,” Sherman and Heyman write, there’s still “a gap between offer and counteroffer,” with specific figures not mentioned.
5:15PM: The Mets and Pete Alonso have seemingly been in a staredown for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reporting from last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had pitched a short-term deal with opt-outs to the Mets but Alonso remains unsigned. Reports from both Andy Martino of SNY and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggest a pivot point is coming where the Mets may move on to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a place on the 2025 team.
It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency could go this way. Last winter, the “Boras Four” lingered in free agency well into the new year and eventually settled for contracts below expectations. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that only were guaranteed for two or three years, though with each player having the chance to opt-out after each season. There were reasons to expect Alonso might follow them down this road.
Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer of seven years and $158MM back in the summer of 2023. He still had one arbitration season to go at that point, ultimately making $20.5MM in 2024, so he effectively turned down $137.5MM for six free agent years. There had been reports that Alonso was looking at the contracts of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson at targets. Freeman signed for $162MM over six years, though with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension when he was still two years away from free agency.
But Alonso isn’t as well-rounded of a player as those two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both below Freeman and Olson. He’s also coming off a couple of relative down years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two most recent campaigns. That’s still strong production but it will naturally concern a club thinking about making a long-term investment.
Alonso is still unsigned with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than a month. There is apparent willingness to pivot to a short-term deal but a deal still hasn’t come together. There is still more time, as Bellinger’s agreement came together in late February last year, Chapman’s in early March. However, today’s reports both point to the Mets starting to consider other options.
The Mets have had a front office shakeup since offering that extension to Alonso. Billy Eppler was the general manager at that time but David Stearns is now running the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really dedicated a lot of resources to first base, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. A three-year, $16MM deal for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the position for the Brewers. Milwaukee non-tendered Chris Carter after he hit 41 home runs in 2016, rather than pay him a projected $8.1MM salary.
Stearns is working with more resources now that he’s with the Mets but has continued to be measured in how he uses those resources, apart from the Juan Soto deal. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he has taken bounceback fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. He also signed Clay Holmes, hoping to get starting pitcher value for reliever prices.
The Mets do have some internal options for corner infield work. Mark Vientos had a great season in 2024, mostly playing third base, but his defense didn’t receive strong grades. It’s been suggested that he could be moved over to first base, with the hot corner then being open for a competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. There’s some uncertainty in going down that road and there would be some sense in adding Alonso back into the mix, but it seems the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.
Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal as it lowers the chances of them being saddled with a player’s decline years, but the player usually looks to get a higher average annual value as a compromise. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80MM but in frontloaded fashion, allowing him to opt out after one year with $30MM in his pocket or after two years with $60MM in the bank. Alonso is perhaps looking for something similar, which the Mets may not be keen on.
The Mets are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number at $276MM next year. Signing Alonso to something in the range of $25-30MM annually would push that close to the fourth and final tier of the tax, which is $301MM this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax for spending over the top line. As such, even employing Alonso for one year and then having him opt out would cost them something like $60MM. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt out, as happened with Bellinger, they would be stuck with the deal for another year or two.
The Mets also stand to receive draft pick compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a tax payor, their bonus pick wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. That’s not massively important in baseball terms but it’s not nothing and it would go away if they re-sign Alonso.
It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it seems they are willing to play hard ball and move on to other options soon. Martino does mention that the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also downplays the talks significantly, characterizing the fit as “fantasy baseball.” That aligns with public comments from Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.
Martino mentions a reunion with Jesse Winker or signing Anthony Santander as other possible pivots, though he adds that the latter is less likely to come to fruition. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to go back to Queens, he will have to do his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers some of the options.
Mets Claim Austin Warren
The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed right-hander Austin Warren off waivers from the Giants, who designated him for assignment last week. New York’s 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.
Warren, 29 next month, has seen small amounts of action in four straight big league seasons. He pitched for the Angels from 2021 to 2023 and then the Giants in 2024, though his workload stayed below 21 innings in each of those campaigns. Put together, he has thrown 48 2/3 innings, allowing 3.14 earned runs per nine. His 18.8% strikeout rate is subpar but his 7.4% walk rate and 46.2% ground ball rate are both strong numbers.
He underwent Tommy John surgery while still with the Angels in May of 2023 and spent the rest of that year on the injured list. He was released going into 2024 but managed to secure a big league deal from the Giants. He spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL as well but was back on the mound by season’s end.
Though his major league track record is fairly limited, spending most of the past two years on the injured list pushed him to Super Two status this winter. Back in November, he and the Giants avoided arbitration by agreeing to a split deal. Per the Associated Press, Warren will have a salary of $785K in the majors and $350K in the minors. When the club claimed Sam Huff a week ago, they bumped Warren off the roster, perhaps hoping to have him clear waivers. However, the Mets seem to like Warren at that price point and have snagged him off the wire.
Perhaps the Mets see the potential for a bit more with Warren. Over the past four years, he has thrown 104 1/3 innings in the minors with a 4.05 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate, while getting grounders on roughly half of the balls in play he’s allowed. If he can bring a few of those punchouts up to the big leagues, that would be a nice step forward. He still has one option year and can therefore be shuttled between Triple-A and the majors fairly freely. If he still has a roster spot at season’s end, he can be retained for 2026 via arbitration.
Notable International Signings: 1/15/25
January 15 marks the official opening of the international signing period. The majority of top talents have reached verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance, they’re allowed to formally put pen to paper to begin their affiliated careers. The signing period technically runs until December 15, but many of the top signees ink their contracts as soon as first eligible.
This year’s international market has been thrown into disarray, to an extent, by the emergence of star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. While Sasaki is an established professional in every sense of the word over in Japan, his age (23) and the fact that he has fewer than six seasons of pro ball in another country under his belt make him an “amateur” under the purview of Major League Baseball’s international free agency structure.
As such, we’ve seen both the Dodgers and Padres both hold off on finalizing longstanding agreements with other teams and, in some cases, let players with whom they’ve had standing verbal agreements instead pursue other opportunities. The Dodgers, for instance, saw Dominican shortstop Darell Morel instead agree to a $1.8MM bonus with the Pirates. That worked out for Morel, who’d agreed to sign for roughly half that amount with Los Angeles (likely more than a year prior). Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that Venzuelan outfielder Oscar Patiño also walked away from his Dodgers deal ($400K) to sign for a $570K bonus with the White Sox. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reported yesterday that Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano, another Dodgers commit, will instead sign with the Twins now. He’ll receive roughly $1MM from Minnesota, per Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.
Those defections will sting for the Dodgers if they’re unable to ultimately sway Sasaki to sign in Los Angeles, though there will be other opportunities to spend those dollars down the road. Unexpected amateur players can pop up well after a signing period has commenced, and Los Angeles would also have the ability to trade some any unused international money. The Dodgers have long been regarded as the Sasaki favorite — so much so that agent Joel Wolfe had to publicly deny speculation regarding a predetermined agreement between the two sides — and the recent run of prospects bolting from their international class does little to quell that perception. The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists for Sasaki, whose posting window closes on Jan. 23.
Turning back to the rest of the class, Badler has a team-by-team breakdown of the most prominent signings over at Baseball America, as well as scouting reports and (in some cases) projected bonuses for as many as 100 players. Longenhagen runs through his own list of 50 international prospects with their expected team and signing bonus over at FanGraphs, as well as a detailed look at some of intricacies and idiosyncrasies of Sasaki’s unique free agent saga. Romero runs through 35 high-profile international talents and their expected team/signing bonus at his site as well. At MLB.com, Jesse Sanchez and Jesse Borek have their own ranking of the top 50 in the class, with scouting reports on each. Those interested in the finer details of this year’s collection of international amateurs are highly encouraged to check out those resources in full. Badler, Longenhagen, Romero, Sanchez and many others around the baseball world dedicate enormous portions of their time and efforts to covering this topic to the fullest.
Note: This is not a comprehensive list of all international signings, nor is it intended to be. If your favorite team is not listed here, it’s not because they’ve sat out the IFA market. There are a few dozen players who’ll sign $1MM+ bonuses and a few hundred who’ll ink six-figure bonuses. Those interested in a comprehensive rundown of the international class can check out links to the excellent work from Badler, Romero, Sanchez and Longenhagen provided above. We’ll run down some of the top signing bonuses here, focusing on those that check in at $2.5MM or more. These are ordered by reported signing bonus, and this list will be updated multiple times today:
- Elian Peña, SS, Mets: The Mets paid a reported $5MM bonus to Pena, per Badler, which represents a whopping 80% of their $6.261MM bonus pool. Currently listed at 5’11” and 170 pounds, Pena is a lefty-swinging shortstop who’s expected to move down the defensive spectrum but have more than enough bat to profile at third base or second base if all pans out. Badler and Romero both liken his power potential to that of Rafael Devers, praising his pitch recognition, plate discipline and willingness to draw walks. He turned 17 in October.
- Andrew Salas, SS/OF Marlins: The younger brother of Twins infield prospect Jose Salas (originally signed by Miami but traded to Minnesota alongside Pablo Lopez) and current Padres top prospect Ethan Salas, Andrew will turn 17 in March. He’s a switch-hitter who’s touted for his patient approach, good swing decisions and balance on both sides of the plate. MLB.com lauds him as a potential plus defender both at shortstop and in center field. Salas was born in Florida but moved to Venezuela, his family’s native country, and is already bilingual as a result. The Marlins are committing a $3.6MM bonus to the youngest of the three Salas brothers, per Romero.
- Cris Rodriguez, OF, Tigers: Rodriguez receives a $3.2MM bonus from Detroit, per Badler. Already 6’4″ and 200 pounds with his 17th birthday still two weeks away, Rodriguez stands out for his bat speed and raw power. Badler calls him a potential 30-homer slugger who’ll probably settle into a corner but for the time being runs well enough to have a chance in center. MLB.com’s report calls Rodriguez a “near carbon copy” of Eloy Jimenez at this same age, even down to hailing from the same city in the Dominican Republic and possessing a similarly aggressive approach. The Tigers will hope Rodriguez can do a better job of avoiding injuries, but Rodriguez possesses thunderous power — more so than any other player in this class.
- Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez, SS, Giants: Badler and Romero both note that some scouts have graded De Jesus as the top prospect overall in this year’s class (Sasaki excluded). MLB.com indeed ranks him as the top non-Sasaki talent in the class. Listed at 5’11” and 175 pounds, the 17-year-old switch-hitter draws 70 grades for his speed (on the 20-80 scale) and also plus bat speed and the defensive tools required to convince scouts he can stick at shortstop. He’s landing a $3MM bonus from San Francisco, Badler reports.
- Diego Tornes, OF, Braves: Tornes won’t turn 17 until July. He’s younger than many of the players in this year’s class but still received a $2.5MM bonus (per Badler) thanks to a projectable 6’4″, 200-pound frame that scouts think is a portent for plus power. He’s a switch-hitter who’s praised for plus bat speed and physicality that are well beyond some of his older peers on this year’s class. MLB.com feels he’ll eventually settle into an outfield corner, where he has an above-average arm and — at least at present — above-average speed.
Roki Sasaki Reportedly Informs Several Teams They Are Out Of Running
3:10pm: The Rangers have also been informed that they are out of the running, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Diamondbacks never got a meeting with Sasaki and won’t be the destination either, per John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix.
2:56pm: The Mets have also been informed that they are out of the running, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post.
2:35pm: The Yankees have been told that right-hander Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them, reports Jack Curry of Yes Network. That’s the second team that is reportedly out, with the Giants having also been told that they won’t be Sasaki’s destination. Andy Martino of SNY adds that the Mets aren’t expected to sign him either, though it’s unclear if they have been given a clear denial like the Giants and Yankees. As for teams that are still in the mix, Sasaki reportedly met with the Padres in San Diego recently, per a report from Dennis Lin, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This was after his recent meeting with the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Sasaki has been on the radar of MLB clubs for years, but his situation became very interesting once it became clear that he would be coming over to North America this winter. Since he is not yet 25 years old, he is considered an amateur under MLB’s international signing rules. That makes a massive difference in his earning power and opens him up to potentially sign with any club.
Per the international bonus pool system, each club has a limit on how much signing bonus money they can give to international amateurs, with this year’s pools ranging from $5-8MM. Broadly speaking, the large-market clubs have the smaller pools and vice versa. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t add more than 60% of their initial pool allotment.
The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s Nippon Professional Baseball club, will also be owed a posting fee. However, the value of that fee will be a percentage of his signing bonus and won’t be a large number either. Per the NPB posting rules, the fee is 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. Since Sasaki will be capped by the pool system, his deal will lead to a modest bonus, with the posting fee adding 20%.
Had Sasaki waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional and could have signed a deal for any amount. That’s the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto took, eventually securing a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.
It can be debated as to who is the better pitcher between Yamamoto and Sasaki, but the point is that there’s tremendous upside in getting Sasaki aboard for such a small investment. Teams that normally don’t sign top free agents can become theoretical fits, while the larger clubs have big payrolls and competitive balance tax concerns, making them very interested as well.
By coming to North America now, Sasaki has seemingly illustrated that maximizing his short-term earnings is not his top priority. Since each club has roughly the same ability to offer him a bonus now, he should be focused on non-financial criteria for making his decision. It could come down to geography, a club’s reputation developing pitching or perhaps a team’s long-term competitive outlook. His agent, Joel Wolfe, said the plan was for teams to make pitches before the holidays. Sasaki would then travel to visit the home cities of certain clubs after the holidays.
A decision needs to come soon. Sasaki can’t officially sign until January 15 when the new pool year starts, but he also has to be signed by January 23, when his posting window closes. Now that there’s only a handful of days left, it seems he is narrowing the field.
The Yankees and Mets both reportedly met with Sasaki in December but it seems that he won’t be coming to New York to join either club. Both teams already have plenty of rotation options, though they surely would have welcomed the problem of adding Sasaki into the mix and further crowding things. The Yankees are already feel good enough about their pitching depth that they are reportedly shopping Marcus Stroman.
Perhaps signing Sasaki wouldn’t have added too much to the urgency to trade Stroman. MLB teams often use six-man rotations when folding in a Japanese pitcher, as the NPB usually sees starters throw once a week as opposed to the five-day rotation in North America. It’s a moot point now but the Yanks still project to start the year with a strong group that includes Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, which is why Stroman’s available.
The Mets have more uncertainty in their rotation but still have plenty of arms to potentially fill out their rotation. Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill are all possibilities. There are question marks with many of those names but that’s eight viable candidates of varying degrees for five rotation spots.
Many observers have considered the Dodgers and the Padres to be the two most likely landing spots, so it’s not especially surprising that San Diego is still in the mix. No one can be sure what Sasaki’s priorities are, but it’s been suggested that the club’s West Coast location and strong performance in recent years are points in their favor, as well as Sasaki’s friendship with Yu Darvish.
As pointed out by The Athletic and others, the Padres could probably use Sasaki more than any other club. They have known financial constraints but plenty of holes to fill, which is why players like Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, Jake Cronenworth and Robert Suarez have been in trade rumors this winter. Adding a pitcher of Sasaki’s caliber at such a discounted rate would be tremendously helpful for them.
As of right now, the rotation projects to include Darvish, Cease and Michael King, with plenty of question marks beyond that. Adding Sasaki would give the Padres a very strong front four, but it could also perhaps increase the chances of the Friars trading Cease for players that are cheaper and more controllable but less proven.
It’s still anyone’s guess what team will be chosen by Sasaki and why. As mentioned, the Jays are still a possibility, based on Sasaki’s recent trip to Toronto. The Padres are obviously in there as well. The Athletic mentions the Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Mariners are clubs that are thought to be in the mix. It’s unknown if Sasaki will visit with any of those other clubs but resolution is coming soon, with more information perhaps trickling out in the coming days.
Anthony Santander, Jack Flaherty Reportedly Open To Short-Term Offers
As the offseason’s free agent market has developed and with Spring Training looming just over the horizon next month, a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic this evening suggests that some of the major free agents still available are weighing the possibility of turning towards short-term deals with high average annual values, as the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery did last winter after not finding the long-term pacts they were hoping for in free agency.
Per Rosenthal and Sammon, outfielder Anthony Santander and right-hander Jack Flaherty are both now open to considering that sort of deal. Sammon also confirmed previous reports that indicated the camp of first baseman Pete Alonso had made an three-year offer to the Mets that includes multiple opt-outs, though it remains unclear if he’s open to similar short-term offers from other clubs at this point.
It’s a notable update to the market of all three players. Both Santander and Flaherty were reportedly looking for five-year deals that could have reached into the range of nine figures. Santander in particular reportedly has a contract offer on the table from the Blue Jays as of last week, though given the fact that he’s now open to exploring short-term deals it seems as though that offer may not have been one the switch-hitter was interested in accepting. It’s easy to imagine the possibility of getting a high-end free agent on a short-term deal opens up the market for these players, or perhaps convincing teams already connected to the players to become more serious about their pursuits.
As one example, Flaherty has previously been connected to the Cubs but there’s been some suggestion that Chicago (who signed Bellinger to a short-term, opt-out heavy deal just last winter) has reservations regarding the right-hander’s asking price. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been connected to both Flaherty and Santander but have remained opportunistic in free agency, locking down one-year deals with Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb to improve their roster without making long-term commitments. Either of these clubs could theoretically be enticed to step up their efforts if their target is now open to considering a short-term deal.
While shorter-term deals can be attractive to teams as a way to mitigate risk associated with a particular free agent, they can still come with complications. While the deals Snell and Chapman signed in San Francisco last winter were clear successes for both sides, with Snell dominating down the stretch in a Giants uniform before signing a lucrative deal in L.A. back in November while Chapman had a resurgent season and extended with the club long-term, not all deals of this variety work out quite so well. Montgomery’s deal with Arizona quickly turned out to be a disaster as the left-hander endured the worst season of his career, got demoted to the bullpen, and has been shopped as a potential salary dump by the Diamondbacks this winter. Bellinger, meanwhile, posted a solid but unspectacular season in Chicago that led the Cubs to dump his salary in a trade with the Yankees last month in order to create an opening in the lineup for the addition of a more impactful bat than Kyle Tucker.
Even with those potential downsides, it’s easy to see why clubs could prefer a short-term deal rather than one that puts them on the hook for a player’s decline phase. After all, the Cubs were still able to shed the vast majority of the money owed to Bellinger in trade even after a pedestrian 2024 season, and the Diamondbacks could end up doing the same even after Montgomery’s disastrous campaign. Swinging those deals would be far more difficult if either player were on lengthy deals with larger overall guarantees, even if the AAV of those deals would likely be lower.
For the players, this sort of approach comes with both pros and cons. There is of course risk involved that injury or poor performance leads to them hitting the market with less value than they had in their initial trip through free agency. In the case of Flaherty, who is currently unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer, taking a short-term deal comes with a bit of extra risk given that even a wildly successful season could end up not leading to the sort of lucrative long-term deal he’s hoping for given the fact that he could be tagged with a QO in a future offseason. For a player already tagged with a QO like Santander, however, signing a short-term deal and hitting free agency after another strong season could provide an even larger boost to his value by allowing him to re-enter free agency unencumbered in the future.
While a willingness to consider short-term, high-AAV offers should open the market up for these players to an extent, that shouldn’t be taken to mean that a massive shakeup is guaranteed. Those high annual salaries figure to be an obstacle for clubs in or on the cusp of luxury tax territory as well as those dealing with budget crunches. As one example, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that Alonso could look to seek a deal that offers an average annual value of $31.1MM in order to land the AAV record for first basemen. While that appears to be speculative on the part of the pair and they go on to suggest deferred money that would lower the net present value to be involved, even an AAV in the $25MM to $30MM range is the sort of figure that the majority of small-market clubs and even big spenders deep into luxury tax territory could be even less willing to stomach than a somewhat longer-term deal with a lower annual salary.
NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Close To Signing Edward Olivares
The Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball are close to a deal with outfielder Edward Olivares, according to multiple reports out of Japan and Venezuela. Olivares signed a minor league contract with the Mets last month, but it seems as though New York will be releasing (or has already released) Olivares so he can pursue this opportunity with the Osaka-based Buffaloes.
Olivares hit only .224/.291/.333 with five homers in 196 PA with the Pirates last season, playing sharing right field duty with Connor Joe and Bryan Reynolds during the first half of the season. Olivares’ final MLB appearance with Pittsburgh came on July 7, and the Pirates designated Olivares for assignment and subsequently outrighted him off their 40-man roster in August.
After making his big league debut with San Diego in 2020, the Padres moved him to the Royals at that season’s trade deadline, and Olivares has played 217 of his 285 MLB games in a Kansas City uniform. The Royals tenure was highlighted by a .270/.322/.410 slash line (106 wRC+) over 559 plate appearances during the 2022-23 seasons, with Olivares making 385 of those trips to the plate in a semi-regular role in 2023 as Kansas City’s left fielder. The outfield-needy Pirates were inspired enough by that performance to trade for Olivares in December 2023, but he couldn’t continue that production during his short time in Pittsburgh.
More recently, Olivares has been tearing it up in Venezuelan Winter League, which might well have caught the Buffaloes’ attention. Despite that deal with the Mets, it isn’t uncommon for MLB teams to simply release players from minor league contracts if the player is relatively low on the depth chart. Olivares is also out of minor league options, which would have complicated his chances of sticking in New York’s organization anyway even if he had cracked the Mets’ active roster at some point.
Olivares now looks set to start a new chapter in his career as he enters his age-29 season. He’ll join Jordan Diaz and Luis Perdomo as two of the non-Japanese members of the Buffaloes’ roster, as the Osaka squad looks to rebound from a disappointing 63-77-3 record in 2024.
Latest On Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso‘s market hasn’t come together the way he and agent Scott Boras had hoped just yet, though there’s still more than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, leaving ample time for a deal to come together and still afford Alonso a normal spring training. One element that’s likely impacted things, as with any high-profile free agent, is trepidation from teams in terms of asking price. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com has previously suggested that the Boras Corporation has used contracts like Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM) as a point of comparison in negotiations.
Boras firmly pushed back on that this morning in comments to SNY’s Andy Martino. Boras tells Martino that “10-year-old contract” like Fielder’s simply “is not relevant to the current Alonso negotiations.” (Fielder’s contract is actually 13 years old, though that only further hammers home the point Boras is making.)
Even with that pushback, it’s likely that years have been the holdup in talks regarding Alonso. The Mets famously offered him a seven-year, $158MM extension in 2023. That included Alonso’s final arbitration season (2024), wherein he was paid $20.5MM. He’d need to top $137.5MM over the next six seasons in order to come out ahead in that bet on himself.
Of course, that doesn’t all need to come in the form of one contract. We’ve seen plenty of free agents in the past find more tepid interest than anticipated in free agency, take an opt-out laden deal, and come out ahead over the course of multiple contracts. It’s not the ideal course of action for most players, but it can certainly work to the player’s benefit.
More specifically, that course of action has been common for both high-end and mid-level Boras clients. It doesn’t always work — just ask Jordan Montgomery — but there are plenty of success stories.
Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Carlos Rodon and Carlos Correa are all recent examples. Chapman took a three-year, $54MM deal with opt-outs in San Francisco and mashed his way into a $151MM extension. He’ll ultimately earn $169MM over a seven-year term. Snell took two years and $62MM from the Giants last winter after reportedly rejecting a Yankees offer in the $150MM range. (He’s since contended the number was well shy of that.) He opted out and landed $182MM from the Dodgers, bringing his six-year earnings to $214MM (albeit with nearly a third of it deferred). Rodon opted out of the second season of his own two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants and cashed in with $162MM in the Bronx. Correa signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal in Minnesota, opted out and went through a strange free agent odyssey that still resulted in an additional $200MM guaranteed from Minnesota, even after a pair of failed physicals in San Francisco and Queens.
It’s not yet clear whether Alonso will ultimately go that route, but former Mets GM Jim Duquette (2003-04), now with MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, reports that Boras and Alonso have pitched an opt-out laden three-year deal to the Mets — and the Mets alone. Even with that reported offer from the player’s camp, Duquette suggests no deal is close for now.
A three-year deal for the Mets — something in the Cody Bellinger mold — would make plenty of sense for both parties. New York would retain the NL home run leader dating back to Alonso’s big league debut and do so without needing to commit long-term to a 30-year-old first baseman who offers minimal defensive/baserunning value. Pairing Alonso and Juan Soto in the heart of the Mets’ order would be formidable.
For Alonso, he’d secure multiple seasons at an annual rate presumably higher than anything available to him on a lengthier deal. Bellinger’s $80MM deal guaranteed him $60MM over the first two seasons of the three-year term if he chose to forgo the first opt-out (which he did). An identical construct for Alonso would mean that, including the $20.5MM he earned in his final arbitration season, he could have $53MM from 2024-25 or $80.5MM from 2024-26. If the aim is to topple the $158MM he rejected in 2023 (which, again, would’ve covered the 2024-30 seasons), he’d be well on his way.
Additionally, Alonso would have the opportunity to improve on a down showing in 2024 that has surely hindered interest. The slugger didn’t have a bad season; his .240/.329/.459 slash was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. His 34 home runs were a clear plus mark. But Alonso’s past two seasons haven’t been as dominant as he was from 2019-22, when he hit a combined .261/.349/.535 (37% better than average).
A 2025 showing more in line with that form would potentially set Alonso up for a much larger payday — and do so on the heels of a premium salary in 2025. He’d also have the benefit of reentering the open market without a qualifying offer and the associated draft pick compensation hanging over his head. Players can only receive one QO in their career, and Alonso rejected one from the Mets back in November.
Latest On Pete Alonso’s Market
Approximately eight teams are involved in the market for Pete Alonso, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. However, Heyman suggests that most of those clubs are interested in a shorter-term, opt-out laden deal with the star slugger.
That aligns with recent reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that suggested that Alonso is likely to turn to a short-term contract. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote in a reader mailbag last week that contract length appeared to be the holdup in talks between Alonso and the Mets. Heyman frames things similarly, reporting that the Mets prefer a short-term deal.
According to Heyman, Alonso had been seeking a deal of at least six years with a guarantee in the $150-180MM range at points this offseason. It is unclear how far his camp at the Boras Corporation has moved off that ask. In any case, it doesn’t seem that any teams were willing to go those heights. That’s not especially surprising considering the way teams have devalued defensively-limited sluggers over the past decade. Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson each got six-plus years and narrowly topped $160MM (albeit with deferrals in Freeman’s case), but they were each coming off superior platform seasons to Alonso.
Alonso turned 30 last month. He hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers across 695 trips to the plate. That was his lowest full-season home run total and slugging percentage. Paired with the defensive limitations as a middling defender at first base, it’s easy to understand teams’ hesitance to make a long-term commitment. At the same time, there’s clear value in a player who plays every game who hit 34 homers in what is a relative down year from a power perspective.
MLBTR predicted a five-year, $125MM contract for Alonso, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. As we noted from the beginning of the winter, though, it wasn’t difficult to foresee a situation where his market didn’t materialize as his camp envisioned. Alonso had previously declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer (albeit not while he was represented by Scott Boras). That covered his final arbitration season, in which he made $20.5MM. To come out ahead, he needed to beat $137.5MM over six free agent years. While that was evidently a goal, it looked like an uphill battle.
Alonso could end up taking the route traversed by Cody Bellinger last offseason. When his market didn’t materialize as hoped, Bellinger signed for three years and $80MM with opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. Alonso would probably expect to beat a $26.67MM average annual value if he’s going with a short-term contract. A return to the Mets still seems the best fit, especially if the team successfully waits him out into pivoting to a three-year guarantee. New York could keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season.
Teams like the Angels, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been loosely tied to Alonso in recent weeks. Los Angeles, Toronto and Boston all have in-house options at first base who could clutter the picture. San Francisco seemingly wanted to upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr., but Heyman reports that they’re reluctant to meet Alonso’s asking price.