Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations
After breaking down how last season’s five lowest-scoring offenses look now, we’ll do the same here with the five rotations that allowed the most earned runs in 2020…
Tigers (6.37 ERA/5.53 FIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.91 BB/9):
- The Tigers received solid production from Spencer Turnbull and … nobody else last season. Matt Boyd, who was a coveted trade chip before the campaign, imploded; Michael Fulmer had a rough year in his return from Tommy John surgery; and high-end prospects Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize couldn’t keep runs off the board. Turnbull, Boyd and Fulmer are all coming back in 2021, while Skubal, Mize and fellow prospect Matt Manning should factor into the mix. Detroit also has a newcomer in former Marlins starter Jose Urena, whom the Tigers signed to a $3.25MM guarantee late last month. Urena was effective in Miami from 2017-18, but his numbers have gone off the rails since then.
Angels (5.52 ERA/4.78 FIP, 8.68 K/9, 3.52 BB/9):
- Over two months into the offseason, Angels fans are surely awaiting the acquisition of a high-profile starter. The team hasn’t done anything to improve its rotation thus far, though the group isn’t devoid of potential as it is. Dylan Bundy enjoyed a long-awaited breakout in 2020 – his first year as an Angel – Andrew Heaney stayed healthy and performed pretty well, and Griffin Canning had a promising sophomore season. Those three are locks for starting jobs in 2021, but the rest is up in the air (will Shohei Ohtani finally regain his health as a pitcher? Will Jaime Barria stick in the rotation after a bounce-back season?). With that in mind, odds are the Angels will add a starter before next season, whether that means splurging on Trevor Bauer or shopping at lower tiers of the market.
Braves (5.51 ERA/4.98 FIP, 8.01 K/9, 4.04 BB/9):
- The Braves’ status as a bottom-feeding rotation is deceiving because of the injury adversity they faced. They barely got anything from Mike Soroka, a 2019 ace who tore his Achilles early in the season, while Cole Hamels pitched once (on Sept. 16) because of nagging arm issues. Soroka will be back next season to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson as one of the best young trios in the game next season. Hamels is now on the open market and unlikely to return, but the Braves replaced him with veteran standout Charlie Morton in free agency. They also grabbed Drew Smyly on the market. While Smyly has gone through an up-and-down career, in part because of injuries, he was terrific as a Giant in 2020. The Braves are banking on Smyly continuing to roll in their uniform.
Nationals (5.38 ERA/5.17 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):
- As was the case with the division-rival Braves, the Nationals’ rotation couldn’t get through 2020 without key injuries. There wasn’t a more notable victim than Stephen Strasburg, who threw all of five innings after winning 2019 World Series MVP honors and re-signing with the Nats on a seven-year, $245MM contract. The good news is that Strasburg is on track for next season after undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. If healthy, Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin should return to being an elite trio. There are some issues after those three, however. Joe Ross will come back after opting out last season, but he posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each year from 2017-19. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth were tattooed in similar fashion in 2020. General manager Mike Rizzo has spoken this winter of adding a No. 4/5 type of starter, which seems like a necessity.
Mets (5.37 ERA/4.21 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):
- The Mets were yet another NL East team whose rotation battled health-related misfortune in 2020. Noah Syndergaard didn’t take the mound after undergoing TJ surgery in March, while the team also got zero contributions from Marcus Stroman because of an opt out. Things are looking better for 2021, though, with Syndergaard set to return at some point (perhaps in June) and Stroman coming back after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer. Stroman, all-world ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson are in line for starting spots at the opening of next season. The same could potentially be said of Steven Matz, whom the Mets elected against non-tendering, though he was terrible in 2020. Thanks in part to Matz’s struggles last year, it seems likely the Mets will pick up at least one established starter in the coming months. Bauer seems like a possibility when considering new owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, but even someone like Jake Odorizzi or Masahiro Tanaka could go a long way in bolstering New York’s rotation.
Latest On George Springer’s Asking Price
9:20pm: Springer has offers in hand north of $100MM, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Those bids nevertheless remain well shy of the veteran’s asking price, per the report.
3:47pm: The Mets and Blue Jays have been known to be the strongest suitors for free agent slugger George Springer for weeks, but Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News takes that notion a bit further, reporting that the Mets and Jays are the two “final clubs” bidding on Springer in free agency.
That, however, doesn’t necessarily mean a decision from Springer is nigh. Springer isn’t expected to sign until January, Thosar writes. While that technically could mean as soon as Friday, SNY’s Andy Martino writes that many involved in the bidding expect that Springer’s free agency could drag “well” into next month. Per Martino, the Mets and Springer aren’t yet close to a deal, and Springer’s camp is still seeking more than $150MM in guaranteed money.
In all likelihood, a $150MM+ contract would make Springer the top paid position player of the winter — possibly the top paid free agent overall. Such a contract could take multiple shapes; clubs more concerned about maintaining year-over-year flexibility could opt for a six-year pact in the $25MM-per-year range, or a team less concerned about approaching the luxury threshold could up the annual rate to around $30MM per year on a five-year term. Given the Blue Jays’ affordable young core, they seem less likely to be concerned with the luxury barrier than the Mets, who have several expensive stars already scattered about the roster.
Notably, Martino suggests that the Mets “might be willing to approach” the $150MM mark to secure Springer, although it’s likely telling to some extent that the two sides aren’t yet close to a deal in spite of that willingness. The Mets and the Blue Jays are considered to be two of the market’s most aggressive buyers this winter, and their reported interests carry some overlap beyond Springer; both have been linked to DJ LeMahieu, and both were tied to J.T. Realmuto — although the Mets are obviously out of that market now after signing James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM contract.
Reports surrounding the two clubs seem to paint the Mets as the aggressor in the Springer market. New York is said to be focused on the longtime Astros center fielder as its top target, while the Jays remain linked to a bevy of top-tier free agents, including Springer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Trevor Bauer. Both the Mets and the Blue Jays have also been rumored as possible landing spots when Francisco Lindor is ultimately traded.
Springer has raked at career-high rates over the past two seasons, posting a combined .284/.376/.576 batting line with 53 home runs, 26 doubles and five triples in 173 games and 778 plate appearances. Both Toronto and New York have somewhat crowded outfield pictures as it is, but either could move some pieces around to accommodate an impact bat of Springer’s caliber. Since Opening Day 2019, Springer has been 53 percent better than a league-average bat, by measure of wRC+. Only six players in that time top his mark of 153: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich, Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon.
Mets Make Changes To Coaching Staff
The Mets announced that they have hired Tony Tarasco as their first base coach. The New York City native will also oversee the Mets’ outfielders and baserunning.
The 50-year-old Tarasco carries extensive coaching experience with multiple organizations. He spent the previous five years with the Padres as their minor league performance and outfield/baserunning coordinator. Before that, Tarasco was with the Nationals organization for 10 years in various roles, including as their first base coach. But he’s likely best known for his run as a major league outfielder from 1993-2002. Tarasco spent the last of those seasons as a member of the Mets.
Now back with the Mets in a different role, Tarasco will take over for prior first base coach Tony DeFrancesco, who will remain with the organization as a senior advisor, player development and scouting. DeFrancesco managed the Mets’ Triple-A team from 2018-19 and was then a candidate for the big league managerial job last offseason. That position ultimately went to Luis Rojas, though DeFrancesco was part of his coaching staff in 2020.
Padres Seen As Front-Runners For Ha-Seong Kim
9:41am: Sherman now tweets that the Padres are viewed as the favorites for Kim. A deal has not yet been completed, but the two sides have discussed a $7-8MM annual value over a term fewer than six years. If a deal is completed, Kim would step in at second base, with Cronenworth likely moving into the outfield.
9:18am: Kim is on a flight to the United States this morning, per Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. While Daniel Kim of DKTV and ESPN tweets that Kim is headed to the U.S. to take a physical, that doesn’t mean he’s selected a team just yet. Kim needs to be present to complete a physical prior to his posting window closing, so it makes sense that he’s headed to North America at this time.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Blue Jays and Padres are considered to be front-runners for Kim, with the Red Sox still looming as a possible but less-likely destination. The Mets and Reds have been “intrigued” by Kim, Sherman adds, but aren’t viewed as favorites to sign him.
8:55am: It’s been less than 12 hours since the Padres agreed to their blockbuster acquisition of Blake Snell in a trade with the Rays, but it seems that’s not the only major roster move general manager A.J. Preller hopes to complete before the New Year. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that San Diego is “taking a serious run” at free-agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who was posted for Major League clubs by the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes.
Unlike most stars who are posted for MLB teams to bid on, Kim is squarely in the midst of his prime years. The 25-year-old has been a steady contributor for the Heroes throughout his career but has seen his offensive output explode over the past two seasons, even as the KBO has altered the composition of its ball in an effort to cut back on the league’s extremely hitter-friendly tendencies. Since 2019, Kim has batted .307/.393/.500 with 49 home runs, 62 doubles, three triples and a 56-for-62 showing in stolen base attempts.
The Padres, of course, don’t have a pressing need for an infielder thanks to the presence of Manny Machado at third base, Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop and emergent Jake Cronenworth at second base. Kim, however, has experience at both shortstop and third base, and he’s viewed as a perfectly viable option at second base as well. He could give the Padres — or another club — a versatile super-utility piece who allows them rest their regular infielders a day per week or step into a larger role in the case of an injury. It’s also worth noting that Cronenworth, excellent 2020 debut notwithstanding, still has just 194 Major League plate appearances under his belt.
There’s no clear front-runner for Kim at this point, although his market is nearing its conclusion. His 30-day posting period began on Dec. 2 and must be concluded by Jan. 1 at 5pm ET. The Blue Jays have made an offer of at least five years, and reports out of South Korea have indicated that he has multiple five-year offers in hand. It’s not clear whether the Padres have made a five-year proposal, but chatter surrounding Kim figures to pick up steam over the next few days as bidding for his services draws to a close.
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
A unique set of challenges faced anyone running a Major League franchise in 2020, between dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and then the difficulties involved in playing games during the delayed-then-shortened season. Nevertheless, it seemed like only a certain amount of slack was granted the sport’s managers and front office leaders (whether that top title was president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, etc.) through the turbulent year, as we still saw a number of teams make changes either in the dugout or at the top of the baseball ops department.
As such, it’s fair to assume that a “normal” amount of pressure to put a winning — or championship-winning — team on the field will be the same in 2021 as in any usual season, even if 2021 is already looking it may have its own share of abnormality. That means that for managers and executives heading into the last guaranteed year of their contracts, job security will likely be on the line in the coming months.
Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for information on the various contractual details of team personnel, though this list may not be complete. Some teams don’t publicly reveal contract lengths of managers or front office execs, so it’s possible some of these names might be locked up beyond 2021 whether due to the original terms of their current deals or due to extensions that haven’t been announced.
Astros: Originally signed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2021, Dusty Baker saw Houston exercise that option last summer, lining Baker up for his 24th season running a Major League dugout. Recent comments from Baker indicate that the 71-year-old is taking something of a year-by-year approach to his future, though if the Astros again reach the postseason, one would imagine the team would certainly have interest in retaining Baker for 2022. A longer-term extension seems unlikely, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if at least another club option (or even a mutual option) was tacked onto Baker’s deal to give both sides some flexibility going forward.
Athletics: While major postseason success continues to elude the team, Oakland has reached the playoffs in each of the last three years. This makes six postseason appearances for Melvin in 10 years managing the A’s, and it seems likely the team will discuss another extension for Melvin as he enters the final year of his current contract. While Billy Beane’s possible departure would naturally have a major impact on the Athletics, the likelihood of longtime executive and current GM David Forst taking over the baseball operations department would probably mean that Melvin would be welcomed back.
Blue Jays: Charlie Montoyo is entering the last guaranteed year of his original three-year contract, and the Jays hold a club option on Montoyo’s services for 2022. That option could be exercised to give Montoyo a bit more security as a reward for leading Toronto to the playoffs last year, though expectations are certainly higher for the 2021 team. It should also be noted that there hasn’t yet been any official confirmation that president/CEO Mark Shapiro has signed a new contract with the team after his five-year deal ran out after last season, but last October, Shapiro seemed to imply that a new deal was all but complete.
Braves: After going from interim manager to full-time manager following the 2016 season, Brian Snitker has twice been signed to extensions — most recently last February, when Atlanta turned its 2021 club option on Snitker into a guaranteed year. Snitker has led the Braves to three straight NL East titles and the team fell one game shy of the NL pennant last October, so Snitker seems like a prime candidate for another extension prior to Opening Day.
Diamondbacks: 2020 was an overall disappointing year for a D’Backs team that was aiming for the postseason, but team president/CEO Derrick Hall indicated that the organization wasn’t planning to make any wholesale changes due to the season’s unusual nature. This bodes well for manager Torey Lovullo as he enters the last year of his contract, and it seems possible Arizona could add another year to Lovullo’s deal just so he can avoid lame-duck status.
Mariners: Both GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais were in the final year of their contracts when both inked extensions with Seattle in July 2018. The terms of those extensions weren’t known, but 2021 would be the final guaranteed year for both if the extensions were three-year deals like their original contracts, though it’s possible Dipoto and Servais each got more security than just a three-year pact. The Mariners have mostly been in rebuild mode since those extensions were signed, and with the team only starting to deliver on some of the young talent amassed in the farm system, ownership could give Dipoto (and quite possibly Servais) more time to see if they can finally get the M’s back to the playoffs. Considering the previous extensions weren’t announced until midseason, we might not know Dipoto/Servais’ fate for some time — and if the Mariners get off to a particularly disappointing start, changes might be in the offing.
Marlins: One of few holdovers from Jeffrey Loria’s ownership, Don Mattingly was signed to a two-year extension following the 2019 season that contained a club option for 2022. The young Marlins reached the postseason last season, so Mattingly has a good case to at least get his option exercised at some point this year, and another extension could well be discussed if CEO Derek Jeter and GM Kim Ng are satisfied with the team’s progress. It can’t hurt that Ng knows Mattingly well from her past days an assistant general manager with the Yankees and Dodgers.
Mets: The winds of change have swept through the Mets organization this winter, yet Luis Rojas wasn’t affected, as team president Sandy Alderson announced that Rojas will remain in the dugout for 2021. Making the move from quality control coach to manager after Carlos Beltran’s quick resignation last winter, Rojas signed a two-year deal with club options for both 2022 and 2023. Expectations are definitely higher for Rojas under the Steve Cohen regime, but given all of the tumult of the 2020 season, Cohen and Alderson (plus newly-hired GM Jared Porter) seem interested in seeing what they actually have in Rojas before deciding on whether a new manager is required.
Orioles: According to The Athletic’s Dan Connolly, “one industry source said it’s believed” that 2021 is the last guaranteed year of manager Brandon Hyde’s contract, with the club possibly holding a club option for 2022. For that matter, executive VP/general manager Mike Elias didn’t have his contract terms revealed when he was hired in November 2018, so he could also be in his final guaranteed year if he hired Hyde on a similar timeline to his own deal. It doesn’t seem like a change is coming in either the front office or the dugout, as the Orioles are still at least a couple of years away from coming out of a complete rebuild. (Connolly makes the case that Hyde should be retained, as Hyde has had little to work with as manager and deserves a chance to steward an actual competitive roster.)
Rangers: Chris Woodward is entering the last guaranteed year of his deal, with the Rangers holding a club option for 2022. Woodward has a 100-122 record over his first two years in the Texas dugout, and since the team is looking to get younger in 2021, it doesn’t seem like an immediate return to contention is in the cards. If it’ll be a year or two until the Rangers are done with what seems like a mini-rebuild, it’s possible the team might decide to hire a new manager to herald them into something of a new era. Woodward may have to prove himself anew by shepherding this younger talent and keeping the Rangers as competitive as possible while they shuffle the roster.
Rays: Erik Neander’s contract terms aren’t known, and it has been over four years since his promotion to the GM/senior VP of baseball operations position in November 2016. So, if Neander’s new gig came with a five-year contract, it would be up at the end of 2021. He makes the list due to uncertainty over his contractual situation, but it doesn’t seem like Neander and the Rays will be parting company any time soon, especially after the club reached the 2020 World Series. Neander reportedly has no interest in leaving the organization and the Rays turned down the Angels’ request to speak with Neander about their GM opening earlier this offseason.
Reds: 2021 is the last guaranteed year for manager David Bell, with the Reds holding a team option for 2022. On the plus side for Bell, he led the team to the playoffs in 2020, though Cincinnati was swept out of the two-game wild card series without scoring even a single run against Atlanta pitching. The Reds spent a lot of money to build that winning team, yet now seem focused on moving salaries, with Raisel Iglesias dealt to the Angels and such names as Eugenio Suarez and Sonny Gray also coming up in trade talks. It remains to be seen if the Reds are trying to just trim payroll or make more wholesale cuts, and this direction could certainly impact Bell’s future if the club is already thinking rebuild.
Rockies: Now through six full seasons as Colorado’s GM, Jeff Bridich’s contractual status is unknown. Between the Rockies’ struggles over the last two years and the frosty relationship between Bridich and star third baseman Nolan Arenado, it would certainly seem like Bridich will need to get things turned around quickly. However, payroll cuts appear to be on the horizon, and the front office is also dealing with the loss of two-thirds of the analytics department. As has been noted many times in the past, Rockies owner Dick Monfort tends to give his employees lots of opportunities, but if Bridich’s contract is up any time soon, one wonders if Monfort might feel a change is necessary.
Yankees: While no official statement has been made, owner Hal Steinbrenner clearly stated after the season that manager Aaron Boone will be returning in 2021, so it’s safe to assume the Yankees have exercised their club option on Boone. There hasn’t been any buzz about an extension, and until then, there will be plenty of media focus on Boone’s lame-duck status. Boone has a 236-148 record and three postseason appearances in his three seasons as manager, but as always in the Bronx, the focus is on playoff success — the Yankees have only made it as far the ALCS once during Boone’s tenure. Anything short of a World Series appearance could spell the end of Boone’s stint as manager.
Red Sox Notes: Semien, Scott, Kahnle, Andriese
The Red Sox “like” free-agent shortstop Marcus Semien, though they’re not sure how much money it would take to sign him, Peter Gammons of The Athletic tweets. Semien is one of the top shortstops on the open market, but the Red Sox already have their answer there in Xander Bogaerts. They’re also set at third base with Rafael Devers. The club does have questions at second base, but Semien hasn’t lined up there since 2014 as a member of the White Sox. The 30-year-old spent the previous six seasons with the Athletics and excelled at times, especially in 2019. He has a connection to the Red Sox in former college roommate Paul Toboni, the team’s scouting director, Gammons notes.
More out of Boston:
- The Red Sox lost assistant general manager Zack Scott to the Mets, who hired him as their assistant GM and senior vice president Wednesday. The move came with a condition, though. The Mets will not be permitted to hire anyone else from the Red Sox’s front office either this offseason or next, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. Presumably, New York’s heavy lifting in the front office is done, with Scott joining newly-hired team president Sandy Alderson and GM Jared Porter in Queens. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to see Boston guard against other potential front office departures.
- Tommy Kahnle signed with the Dodgers on a two-year deal this afternoon. The Red Sox, though, were also in on the free agent reliever, reports Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter link). Boston made a “strong offer” to Kahnle and finished second for his services, adds Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The right-hander was something of a unique case on the open market; having undergone Tommy John surgery this past August, Kahnle will likely miss all of the 2021 season but is an interesting upside play for the following year. If Boston’s looking for more immediate right-handed bullpen help, there’s no shortage of options available in free agency.
- The Red Sox did sign one potential bullpen piece today, bringing in Matt Andriese on a one-year deal with a 2022 club option. The veteran has been used almost exclusively as a reliever over the past two seasons, although he’ll be given an opportunity to stake a claim to a rotation job next spring, he told reporters (including Cotillo). Andriese expressed an openness to either role and noted that he expects the Red Sox front office to continue to explore starting pitching additions this offseason. The right-hander broke into the majors as a true swing piece with the Rays, starting 44 of his 72 appearances in Tampa Bay from 2015-17.
Mets Hire Zack Scott As Assistant General Manager
The Mets have hired Zack Scott as their senior vice president/assistant general manager, Jon Heyman of MLB Network was among those to report. Scott was previously Boston’s assistant GM.
Scott spent the past 17 years in various roles with the Red Sox, which put him on the map for the Mets as they sought a new GM. They ultimately gave that job to Jared Porter, who worked with Scott in Boston’s front office for several years. Scott reportedly was the runner-up to Porter for the position.
“I’ve known Zack for over 15 years, and worked with him daily for 10 of those years,” Porter said of Scott (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). “He’s a strong leader who is a very creative and dynamic thinker. Zack is well rounded in all areas of baseball operations.”
Scott’s addition is the latest high-profile move for a Mets front office that has undergone significant changes since new owner Steve Cohen took over in November. Before hiring Porter and Scott, New York parted with general manager Brodie Van Wagenen and brought back former GM Sandy Alderson as team president.
Free Agent Notes: LeMahieu, Realmuto, Arihara, Hand
The Mets “recently contacted” infielder DJ LeMahieu, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The fight for LeMahieu appeared to be between his previous team, the Yankees, as well as the Blue Jays, but it would be difficult to count the deep-pocketed Mets out of the mix. Signing LeMahieu would enable the Mets to send Jeff McNeil from second to third base, though it’s unclear what that would mean for J.D. Davis, who started the majority of Mets games at the hot corner in 2020.
- New Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and Jeff Berry, the agent for free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, had a discussion Monday, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic relays. Negotiations did not occur during that talk, but Dombrowski made sure to mention that the Phillies want Realmuto back, per Montemurro. They have made Realmuto an offer, Heyman relays.
- The Rangers are among the teams “believed” to have interest in right-hander Kohei Arihara, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The 28-year-old Arihara, whom the Nippon Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted earlier this offseason, logged a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 836 innings. MLB teams have until Dec. 26 to sign Arihara.
- Minnesota native Brad Hand, one of the top relievers on the open market, told Darren Wolfson of SKOR North that he’d “love to play” for the Twins in 2021. However, the southpaw isn’t sure if the Twins are interested in signing him. Hand reached free agency when the division-rival Indians declined his $10MM club option after last season, which came as a surprise considering the 30-year-old was one of baseball’s top relievers in 2020.
Mets Avoid Arbitration With Noah Syndergaard
The Mets and right-hander Noah Syndergaard have agreed to a contract for the 2021 season and will avoid going to salary arbitration, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). Syndergaard will earn $9.7MM, which was also what he earned in 2020 when missing the entire season due to Tommy John surgery.
Since Syndergaard went under the knife last March, he isn’t likely to be back in action until May or June. It isn’t yet clear how much game time Syndergaard will actually miss given the rumors about a possible delay to the start of the 2021 season, though regardless, the righty will have a somewhat limited amount of time to establish that he is both healthy and still somewhat close to his old ace-level self in advance of free agency in the 2021-22 offseason. A Syndergaard who can check both of those boxes should still put himself in line for a substantial multi-year contract next winter, though his price ceiling will surely be impacted by his recent injury history.
Syndergaard’s status will also heavily impact the Mets’ plans for both this winter and the coming season, as an in-form Syndergaard will provide an enormous boost to the team’s starting rotation. While the Mets have been linked to Trevor Bauer and other free agent hurlers this offseason, it’s possible the team could wait until the trade deadline in order to see what they have in Sydergaard before making any truly big-ticket pitching additions, which means the Mets could pursue lower-tier arms than Bauer this winter.
Even with Syndergaard’s deal now done, the Mets still have ten other arbitration-eligible players remaining. Here are those projected salaries, as per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Mets Looking Into Tomoyuki Sugano
The Mets are “looking into” right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano as they seek to upgrade their rotation, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sugano was posted for MLB clubs earlier this month, and teams have until Jan. 7 to complete a contract with him before that posting window expires.
New York has been prominently connected to Trevor Bauer as a potential free-agent target, but numerous reports have indicated over the past week-plus that George Springer is the team’s primary focus at the moment. Sherman agrees, calling Springer the “centerpiece” of their offseason plans. As such, an expectation has emerged that the Mets will look to the second tier of starting pitchers in their search to augment their rotation, and the 31-year-old Sugano is arguably the best of the bunch.
[Related: Yomiuri Giants Post Tomoyuki Sugano For MLB Clubs]
One of the premier pitchers in Japan, Sugano is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Nippon Professional Baseball’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. After a “down” 2019 season that saw him log a 3.89 ERA, Sugano rebounded with 137 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball in 2020, averaging 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames. Of note, Sherman writes that large-market teams may have the upper hand in pursuing Sugano, as NPB’s Giants are viewed as the “Yankees of Japan,” playing their home games at the famed Tokyo Dome.
It’s not clear just what type of arrangement Sugano will command on the open market, but a multi-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary seems reasonable to anticipate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a two-year, $24MM deal in his updated free-agent rankings and contract predictions. If a team believes Sugano to be closer to a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in MLB, it’s certainly possible that he could secure a third year or a hike on that annual salary.
The Mets, of course, have Jacob deGrom atop their rotation and will also rely on Marcus Stroman after the righty accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Rookie David Peterson was impressive in a limited 2020 debut, and lefty Steven Matz was also tendered a contract despite a recent downturn in his production. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, will be out until this coming summer due to Tommy John surgery.
Emboldened by new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are a clear win-now team under the watch of returning president Sandy Alderson and newly hired GM Jared Porter. With James McCann and Trevor May already signed to multi-year deals, further additions are a given. If the plan is indeed to add a second-tier arm and make Springer the focus, then Sugano would join Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Corey Kluber among the best remaining rotation options on the open market.
To this point in his posting window, Sugano has also been connected to the Red Sox, the Rangers and the Blue Jays. Given his stature in Japan, it’s all but certain that Sugano will receive interest from the majority of pitching-needy clubs who are willing to spend in the wake of this year’s revenue losses. In addition to the money owed to Sugano on a new contract, the team that signs him will owe a release fee to NPB’s Giants. That fee is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter (including option years, incentives, etc.).