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7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Mets Notes: CF, Bench Coach, Bullpen

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Here’s the latest on the Mets:

  • Although the Mets are in need of a center fielder, Japanese free agent Shogo Akiyama isn’t near the top of their list, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. This year’s free-agent class is limited in center, where Brett Gardner (who’s not even a full-time CFer) looks like the premier player available. Meanwhile, the 31-year-old Akiyama is coming off a productive nine-season run in Nippon Professional Baseball, but he’s no sure thing to succeed in the majors. And Akiyama’s a left-handed hitter, which seems to run counter to their ideal acquisition in center. The club wants a player who hits from the right side and is a better defender than Brandon Nimmo, Mike Puma of the Post tweets. Shortstop Amed Rosario’s a righty batter, and though the team has considered moving him to center in the past, those days are gone. “I don’t see a scenario for him to be in center field,” general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said (via Sherman).
  • While the Mets may not want Akiyama, they are among the teams interested in free-agent center fielder Matt Szczur, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The righty-hitting Szczur, 30, would likely be a minor league pickup, as the former Cub and Padre hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2018. He had a brutal year then in San Diego, which forced him to sign a minors pact with the Diamondbacks last offseason. Szczur batted a solid .322/.390/.577 with eight home runs in 172 plate appearances as a member of the D-backs’ top affiliate.
  • Pirates third base coach Joey Cora is the latest possibility to take over as the Mets’ bench coach, per Sherman. Cora, a former major league second baseman and the brother of Red Sox manager Alex Cora, has ties to new Mets manager Carlos Beltran and special assistant Omar Minaya, Sherman notes. He managed in the Mets’ minor league system when Minaya was their GM in the early 2000s. Cora, Fredi Gonzalez and Jerry Narron are the only known candidates to become the Mets’ bench coach. Longtime San Francisco assistant Ron Wotus had been in the running, but he’ll stay with the Giants as their third base coach, Daniel Brown of The Athletic relays.
  • The Mets were aggressive in trying to upgrade their bullpen last offseason, when they surrendered significant resources for Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. The latter was the only somewhat effective member of the trio, while the struggles of Diaz and Familia played a key part in another non-playoff season for the Mets. Considering that their bullpen was a letdown this season, the Mets could again look for help in that area this winter, though Van Wagenen contends that the club’s relief corps must “largely sink or swim based on how Diaz and Familia perform,” Sherman writes. Van Wagenen suggested Diaz, Familia, Wilson, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are set to reprise their late-game roles, but it’s unclear who will join that quintet.

Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander Named Cy Young Winners

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6:28pm: The BBWAA announced a slight correction in the NL voting (Twitter link), revealing that Ryu finished in second place alone — not in a tie with Scherzer, who is alone in third place. Flaherty is now alone in fourth place as well, with Strasburg landing fifth.

5:56pm: Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom and Astros righty Justin Verlander have been named the Cy Young Award winners in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Wednesday (click for voting breakdowns in the National League and American League).

It’s the second consecutive Cy Young win for deGrom, who has cemented himself among the elite arms of the generation. The 31-year-old deGrom received 29 of a possible 30 first-place votes, with the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu receiving the lone other first-place vote. Ryu, who narrowly topped deGrom for the NL ERA title but tossed 22 fewer innings, finished in a second-place tie with Max Scherzer. Stephen Strasburg and Jack Flaherty, meanwhile, were only slightly behind that pair in a fourth-place tie of their own. Mike Soroka, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kirby Yates and Patrick Corbin all received votes and appeared further down the ballot.

Tossing 200 innings is an increasingly rare feat in today’s era of bullpen dominance, but deGrom delivered his third straight year of 200-plus frames, finishing with 204 innings of 2.43 ERA ball. His 2.67 FIP largely supported that excellent ERA, and deGrom was once again masterful in terms of overall strikeout percentage (31.7 percent) and walk percentage (5.5 percent). The right-hander, to this point, hasn’t given the Mets any reason to second-guess the four-year, $120.5MM contract extension they awarded him prior to the 2019 campaign. That pact ensured that deGrom will be a fixture on the starting staff for years to come, and he’ll join Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman in a formidable top four in 2020 as the Mets look to reload and once again take aim at a postseason berth.

Verlander, 36, narrowly edged out teammate Gerrit Cole but managed to secure his second career Cy Young win. No pitcher outside of Verlander or Cole received a first- or second-place vote, but Verlander’s 17 first-place votes won the day. Rays star Charlie Morton received the bulk of the third-place votes (18) and came in third place on the ballot, while Cleveland’s Shane Bieber received 10 third-place votes and finished fourth in voting. Lance Lynn parlayed his brilliant rebound campaign into a fifth-place finish, while Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Mike Minor rounded out the ballot (in that order).

Verlander led the Majors with 223 innings pitched and finished second in the game in strikeout percentage (35.4 percent), trailing only Cole (39.9 percent) in that regard. Verlander’s 2.58 ERA was slightly higher than Cole’s 2.50 mark, and his FIP (3.27) was a good margin higher than that of Cole (2.64). But Verlander yielded fewer walks in more innings pitched, started one more game than Cole and finished the year with 21 victories to Cole’s 20. The two were widely expected to crush the rest of the field in a tightly contested race and did just that. Verlander would have been a free agent alongside Cole were it not for the two-year, $66MM extension he signed over the winter. He’ll instead join Zack Greinke atop the Houston rotation for the next couple of seasons as he seeks to add a third trophy to his Cooperstown case.

Latest On Mets’ Coaching Staff

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The Mets are making progress in their efforts to put together a staff under new skipper Carlos Beltran. In particular, the club has agreements in place with Chili Davis and Tom Slater to remain with the organization, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (via Twitter).

Both Davis and Slater receive multi-year deals, per the report. They’ll continue to serve as hitting coach and assistant hitting coach, respectively, giving the New York org some continuity in that arena as Beltran takes over the dugout.

Beltran is still in need of a bench coach and that now seems to be the top priority. Longtime Giants coach Ron Wotus is under consideration for the gig, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic (Twitter link). Wotus’s status in San Francisco is in flux now that Gabe Kapler has signed on there.

Jerry Narron and Fredi Gonzalez remain under consideration by the Mets as well, Jon Heyman of MLB Network notes on Twitter. It isn’t known whether that constitutes a final trio of candidates. Terry Collins has been mentioned previously as a speculative possibility, but he’s reportedly out of the mix.

Mets Working To Retain Chili Davis

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  • The Mets are closing in on a deal to retain hitting coach Chili Davis, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.  The former big league slugger is fresh off his first year with the Mets, whose offense made strides on his watch. Davis helped the club to the majors’ 13th-most runs and its seventh-highest wRC+ (104).

Latest On Mets’ Bench Coach Position

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11:21pm: Giants third base coach Ron Wotus has also interviewed for the Mets’ bench coach position, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. Wotus remains in the running for the job, per Baggarly. San Francisco has been the lone stop for the 58-year-old Wotus since his MLB coaching career began in 1998, and the Giants did consider him for their managerial vacancy this fall. However, now that the Giants have hired Gabe Kapler as their manager, it’s unclear if Wotus will remain part of their staff.

7:30pm: The Mets have their new manager in former major league slugger Carlos Beltran, a first-time skipper who brings zero coaching experience to the table. The fact that Beltran’s a neophyte makes it all the more important for the Mets to find an experienced bench coach capable of helping him learn the ropes. They’ve got at least two names on their radar in Fredi Gonzalez and Jerry Narron, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.

The Mets have already spoken with Gonzalez, who’s likely to have a formal interview with the club after the GM meetings, according to Puma. The 55-year-old Gonzalez is a former major league manager who oversaw the Marlins from 2007-10 and the Braves from 2011-16. More recently, Gonzalez was the Marlins’ bench coach over the previous three seasons, but he stepped down from that post a month ago.

Narron, 63, left the Diamondbacks in late October after they chose to replace him as their bench coach. He served in that role for two-plus years before the D-backs decided to give the job to Luis Urueta, though their hope was that Narron would remain a part of their coaching staff. He’s now a free agent, however, and is well-known for managing the Rangers from 2001-02 and the Reds from 2005-07.

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Brodie Van Wagenen On Mets’ Offseason Plans

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Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who’s in the early stages of a crucial second offseason on the job, spoke to reporters about the team’s winter plans Monday. The club’s on the heels of an 86-win season, its third in a row without a playoff berth. There are obvious need areas on the Mets’ roster, then, but it’s up in the air how aggressive they’ll be this offseason with seemingly limited spending room under the budget of owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon.

Infielder Jed Lowrie and outfielder Yoenis Cespedes are among the players clogging up New York’s payroll. Injuries prevented either from factoring in much or at all in 2019, but they (Lowrie – $9MM and Cespedes – $29.5MM) are slated to occupy almost $40MM of the Mets’ payroll next season. Lowrie at least logged some playing time in September, meaning he should be good to go at the start of 2020. However, Lowrie won’t have “a normal offseason considering what he went through last year,” according to Van Wagenen, who noted the Mets have “continued to try to diagnose what Jed’s issues were that kept him out this season” (via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). But signs point to the Mets rolling with Lowrie, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis as their third base options in 2020, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. On paper, that’s a capable trio, and with Robinson Cano at second base and Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto as the Mets’ top two corner outfielders, it would make sense for Lowrie, McNeil and Davis to share the hot corner.

The ongoing presence of Cespedes further complicates the picture in the outfield, but as Van Wagenen said last week, there’s still no indication as to whether he’ll be able to play next year (via Tim Healey of Newsday). Cespedes, the Mets’ highest-paid player, missed all of this season because of ankle issues. If the Mets were sure Cespedes would miss at least 60 days next year, they’d be able to recoup 60 to 70 percent of his money by way of insurance. For now, though, the team doesn’t seem to have any idea as to whether Cespedes will significantly weigh on its payroll going forward. 

Regardless of what happens with Cespedes, it seems center field should be a priority for the Mets this offseason. The Mets tried Juan Lagares, Nimmo and Conforto there to underwhelming results in 2019. Lagares is now a free agent after the Mets declined his club option, while Nimmo and Conforto are likely better cut out for corner roles. Indeed, the Mets want to improve their defense in center, per Van Wagenen. Problem is that free agency’s not loaded with obvious solutions at the position, while the best trade candidates at the spot (Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte and Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr.) earn fairly expensive salaries. That’s without adding in the assets they’d cost to acquire, and it’s worth noting Marte’s coming off a poor year as a defender.

Aside from center field, Van Wagenen cited pitching – both rotation and bullpen – as well as backup catcher as areas the club could address in the coming weeks (Twitter links via Mike Puma of the New York Post, Healey and Thosar). The Mets have one of the highest-profile free-agent starters in the game in Zack Wheeler, whom they issued a $17.8MM qualifying offer. While they’d like to re-sign Wheeler, it’s entirely possible he’ll end up out of the Mets’ price range, which would leave them with a still-enviable top of the rotation in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. The team lacks depth after that foursome, though Van Wagenen pointed to David Peterson, Walker Lockett, Chris Flexen and Corey Oswalt as in-house options. If you’re a Mets fan who’s unexcited about the majority of that group, that’s understandable. But Peterson, MLB.com’s seventh-ranked Mets prospect, at least carries some intrigue. The 24-year-old, a 2017 first-round pick, reached the Double-A level this season and notched a 4.19 ERA/3.19 FIP with 9.47 K/9 against 2.87 BB/9 in 116 innings.

As for the Mets’ bullpen, it’s no surprise they’re interested in bettering a bunch that largely fell flat this year. The Mets were aggressive in trying to bolster the unit last offseason, evidenced by the acquisitions of Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. But Wilson was the only effective member of the trio, and given that the Mets could move either Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman to their rotation, their relief corps looks like an even bigger concern at the moment.

While it’s unclear how the Mets will configure their pitching staff next year, it seems their hurlers will primarily end up throwing to Wilson Ramos. The veteran catcher was yet another of the Mets’ headline-grabbing pickups from last offseason who may not have delivered as hoped in 2019. But despite his defensive deficiencies, the 32-year-old Ramos did record yet another fine offensive campaign. With $9.25MM owed to Ramos next season, it seems the Mets will continue to ride with him behind the plate and seek a defensively sound complement to place behind him.

The Mets are undoubtedly in for a fascinating offseason. The club’s not short on talent, but there are clear flaws at the same time. If Van Wagenen doesn’t find a way to repair them, and if the Mets miss the playoffs yet again, it’s possible they’ll be on the lookout for a new GM a year from now.

Multiple Teams Pursuing Zack Wheeler At Outset Of Free Agency

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7:33pm: The Mets also remain interested in exploring a multi-year arrangement with Wheeler, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not evident how serious that possibility is — let alone whether there’s any potential for a pact to come together before Wheeler formally reaches the open market.

We’ve seen plenty of on-again/off-again chatter of a deal with Wheeler over recent months. When the Mets acquired Marcus Stroman, it was generally supposed that the club was going to move on from Wheeler, though the door stayed open when he wasn’t dealt over the summer. With obvious budgetary restrains and other needs, it still feels like a longshot.

Meanwhile, those prior trade talks also came up in reporting today. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Mets spoke with teams right up until the deadline passed, with the Astros pushing hardest and the Yankees, Rays, and Athletics also involved.

That’s mostly of historical interest, though it could offer some clues for free agency. Indeed, the Houston organization is already engaged with Wheeler’s reps, per Heyman (via Twitter). The ’Stros talked shop with Jet Sports today. We can only presume that the outfit’s major free agent starter came up in conversation, among other things.

2:29pm: Zack Wheeler technically has another three days to accept or reject his $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets, but there’s never been a realistic scenario in which he takes the one-year deal. The right-hander is widely considered to be among the four best pitchers in free agency this winter — No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, by many accounts — and should have little trouble cashing in on a lucrative multi-year pact. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Angels, Padres and White Sox are among the teams that have shown early interest in Wheeler. Other clubs have surely checked in already and will continue to do so, of course.

Wheeler, 29, has come all the way back from a lengthy absence stemming from 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s made 60 starts over the past two seasons and saw his fastball velocity tick up to a career-high 96.7 mph average in 2019 — the second-hardest mark of any free-agent starter on the market (behind Cole).

Wheeler had a rough handful of starts at the beginning of each of the past two seasons, but over his past 55 starts combined, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. Beyond the high-end velocity, Wheeler possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast).

Each of the three listed teams is a natural fit for Wheeler, though that’s true of the majority of rotation-hungry teams in the league. While the likes of Cole and Strasburg will be wholly ruled out by many clubs due to their expected $30MM+ annual salaries and over the next half decade-plus, Wheeler is quite likely someone most teams will view as affordable — even if he’s at the top end of their budget. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman quotes one team executive expressing a similar sentiment, calling Wheeler the best arm of the market’s second tier (beyond Cole and Strasburg) and adding “and everyone pretty much will believe they could afford him.”

Beyond the listed teams in Morosi’s report, it’d be a surprise if the Phillies, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals (if Strasburg departs), Dodgers, Blue Jays and others aren’t in play for the righty. Wheeler could draw the most widespread interest of any free agent on the market this winter and will probably be connected to a dozen or more additional teams between now and the time he finally puts pen to paper.

Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

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Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez and Mets first baseman Pete Alonso were named the rookies of the year in the American and National Leagues, respectively. The former was a unanimous choice, while the latter received top placement from all but one of the ROY voters from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

It’s a power-packed duo, to say the least. While slugging numbers were up around the game, these two still stood out.

Alvarez, 22, didn’t force his way onto a loaded Astros roster until mid-season. But he still swatted 27 long balls in his 369 plate appearances. And his half-season offensive numbers were … well, astronomical. Among players with at least three hundred attempts, he came in a close second in all of baseball in wRC+ (his 178 just lagged Mike Trout) and slugging percentage (.655, just trailing Christian Yelich).

The 24-year-old Alonso did damage all year long, on both sides of a memorable Home Run Derby victory. He appeared in all but one of the Mets’ games, slugging a league-leading 53 dingers while topping the century mark in runs and ribbies. It wasn’t just counting stats; Alonso wrapped up his debut season with an excellent .260/.358/.583 batting line.

The rest of the American League field fell well shy of Alvarez in output. But that’s not to say there weren’t nice performances. Surprise Orioles hurler John Means landed in second place, another nice bit of recognition for one of the least-likely All Stars in the history of baseball. Brandon Lowe of the Rays, Eloy Jimenez of the White Sox, and Cavan Biggio of the Blue Jays finished 3-4-5.

There was certainly stiffer competition on the N.L. side. Third-place finisher Fernando Tatis Jr. may well have commanded the award (or at least forced a photo finish) had his season not been cut short. And the man in second, Braves hurler Mike Soroka, had his own strong claim to the award. He picked up one first-pace vote after turning in 174 2/3 innings of 2.68 ERA pitching — no minor accomplishment in a season filled with the offensive exploits of so many. Pirates standout Bryan Reynolds landed fourth with his own excellent campaign, while Cardinals hurler Dakota Hudson and Nationals outfielder Victor Robles each also received down-ballot votes.

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