Checking In On The Worst Bullpens Of 2018
The importance of having a dominant bullpen was on display in 2018, when four of the majors’ five best relief units in terms of fWAR helped pitch their teams to the postseason. On the other hand, four of the league’s five worst relief corps (and nine of the game’s bottom 10) watched the playoffs from home. So now, with the spring fast approaching, where do last year’s bottom-feeding bullpens stand? As you’ll see below, at least one has made major improvements this winter, but the rest look iffier. While there’s still time for these teams to add help from a free-agent class that remains awash with veterans, this quintet’s bullpen-related heavy lifting may be all but complete for the offseason.
Royals (minus-2.2 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource ): Going by fWAR, the Royals’ 2018 bullpen was among the five worst of the past decade, though the unit “only” posted the majors’ second-highest ERA (5.09) a year ago. Those hideous numbers came in spite of the presence of Kelvin Herrera, who logged a near-spotless 1.05 ERA over 25 2/3 innings before the Royals traded the then-pending free agent to the Nationals in June. They also came thanks in large part to Brandon Maurer, who’s now a Pirate after pitching to a ghastly 7.76 ERA/6.58 FIP in 31 1/3 innings out of Kansas City’s bullpen last season.
Heading into the upcoming campaign, there’s a lot of work to be done to turn this Herrera-less group into a strength, but the Royals haven’t addressed it in any major way this offseason. However, considering they’re coming off a 58-win season and also won’t approach contention in 2019, it’s not surprising the Royals have shied away from major league free agency. They’ve instead taken less expensive routes to acquire potential bullpen pieces, having pulled in Michael Ynoa on a minor league deal, Sam McWilliams and Chris Ellis in the Rule 5 Draft and Conner Greene via waivers. Unfortunately, going by ZIPS projections, no one from that quartet looks like a promising bet to produce much in 2019. Likewise, ZIPS doesn’t have particularly high hopes for the majority of the Royals’ bullpen holdovers from 2018. The system does, however, like 23-year-old left-hander Richard Lovelady – who has turned in excellent minor league numbers but hasn’t yet reached the majors.
Marlins (minus-2.1 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): At 5.34, the Marlins’ relief corps managed the game’s worst ERA last year and the sport’s third-highest mark since 2009. The main culprits were Ben Meyer, Junichi Tazawa and Tyler Cloyd, who combined for 56 2/3 innings and each registered an ERA of at least 8.68. Tazawa and Cloyd are now out of the organization. Meyer, meanwhile, is still around, but he’s not even on Miami’s 40-man roster. But neither is righty Nick Wittgren, who led Marlins relievers in ERA (2.94) and FIP (3.13) in 33 2/3 frames last year. The Marlins made the odd choice to designate the 27-year-old Wittgren for assignment earlier this week to make room for the signing of infielder Neil Walker, who’s six years Wittgren’s senior and only under control for one season. Other notable contributors no longer in the mix include Kyle Barraclough (who nosedived in 2018 and was dealt to the Nationals in October), Brad Ziegler (Miami traded him to Arizona last July, and he has since retired) and Javy Guerra (now a Blue Jay after putting up a 5.55 ERA in 2018).
The best returning pieces in Miami’s bullpen look to be Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley, who each registered solid seasons in 2018. Otherwise, it’s a largely unproven cast – one that hasn’t picked up any major league free agents and seems likely to once again record below-average numbers this year. As with the Royals, the Marlins are rebuilding, so they’ve explored alternative paths for help. Thus far, they’ve acquired Nick Anderson (via trade with the Twins), Tyler Stevens (via trade with the Angels), minor league free agents R.J. Alvarez and Brian Moran, Rule 5 selection Riley Ferrell, and intriguing waiver claim Julian Fernandez.
Mets (minus-0.6 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Unlike the Royals and Marlins, the Mets are making a real effort to win in 2019. As a result, the bullpen has been a key area of focus for new Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who has swung a blockbuster trade to reel in arguably the best closer in baseball (ex-Mariner Edwin Diaz) and spent a combined $40MM on free agents Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson this winter. Diaz, Familia and Wilson will join Seth Lugo, who was outstanding in 2018, and Robert Gsellman to give the Mets no fewer than five capable relievers.
Perhaps the Mets will also benefit from less heralded pickups in Luis Avilan and Arquimedes Caminero, whom they signed to minors deals, and Rule 5 pick Kyle Dowdy. Regardless, New York’s new cast of relievers looks a whole lot better than last year’s bullpen, which relied too much on the likes of Paul Sewald, Jerry Blevins, Jacob Rhame, Tim Peterson and Anthony Swarzak, among other ineffective options, en route to a 4.96 ERA. Sewald, Rhame and Peterson are still in the organization, albeit as depth pieces, while Blevins and Swarzak are now gone. All things considered, ZIPS expects the Mets’ revamped bullpen to end up as one of the majors’ best in 2019.
Indians (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Cleveland found its way to another division title in 2018 despite its weak bullpen, which limped to a 4.60 ERA as innings leaders Cody Allen, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Neil Ramirez and Andrew Miller scuffled. Allen, McAllister and Miller are now gone, leaving the Indians with a bullpen that, in spite of the great Brad Hand‘s presence, still looks somewhat questionable. The club did well to re-up lefty Oliver Perez, whose 2018 renaissance earned him a guaranteed deal last month, though he’s the only major league free agent Cleveland has signed. The team also made a waiver claim for A.J. Cole, whose penchant for surrendering home runs led both the Nationals and Yankees to give up on him in the past eight months, and brought in veterans Justin Grimm and Brooks Pounders on minor league accords. Big league success has eluded Grimm and Pounders over the past couple years, however, so the Indians surely aren’t expecting significant contributions from either. Instead, their relief corps will count on returning Indians – potentially including flamethrower Danny Salazar, a starter from 2013-17 who missed all of last season because of shoulder problems. While Salazar could factor in at some point, it won’t be at the start of the season.
Nationals (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Washington, another prospective contender, has made a couple of interesting bullpen moves this offseason after last year’s underwhelming showing. In addition to trading for the hard-throwing Barraclough, who held his own from 2015-17, they inked fellow high-velocity righty Trevor Rosenthal to a $7MM guarantee in free agency. Rosenthal, 28, sat out all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the former Cardinals closer was mostly tremendous out of their bullpen from 2012-17.
Should a healthy Rosenthal return to form, it would be an enormous boon for the Nationals, who saw a different ex-Cards reliever – Greg Holland – experience a rebirth in their uniform last season. But after logging a microscopic 0.84 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in D.C., Holland joined the Diamondbacks in free agency. The Holland-less Nats are now slated to rely mostly on elite but oft-injured closer Sean Doolittle, Barraclough, Rosenthal, Justin Miller, Koda Glover, Sammy Solis and Matt Grace, with Tanner Rainey (acquired from the Reds for Tanner Roark) and minor league signings Vidal Nuno and J.J. Hoover around as depth. All said, it’s a high-risk, high-reward bunch, given the injuries Doolittle and Rosenthal have dealt with and the up-and-down performances of Barraclough, Miller, Glover, Solis and Grace.
Quick Hits: Mets, deGrom, A. Jones, Marlins, Jays
A few notes from around the game…
- The Mets and right-hander Jacob deGrom began discussing a contract extension in December, but the two sides haven’t exchanged any offers yet, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. DeGrom, who’s controllable through 2020, is on track to enter camp on the $17MM salary he secured upon avoiding arbitration earlier this month. It stands to reason, however, that the team and player will engage in more substantive talks prior to the season. If serious negotiations take place, they’ll be particularly interesting to monitor given that deGrom’s previous agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, is now the Mets’ general manager. Van Wagenen challenged the Mets to either extend or consider trading deGrom last season, but the club’s previous front office didn’t bite in either case. The rookie GM will now have to help decide how much the team should pay his ex-client over the long haul.
- Interest in free-agent outfielder Adam Jones has picked up, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests. It’s unclear which teams are chasing Jones, but rumors centering on the longtime Baltimore center fielder have been scarce this winter. Although he’s a highly respected veteran, the 33-year-old Jones’ halcyon days appear long gone. Jones may no longer be a viable option in center, where he posted minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-10.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2018, and has only been a league-average offensive player in 1,920 plate appearances dating back to 2016.
- Before he signed a minor league contract with the Marlins in November, Harold Ramirez received offers from 15 teams, the outfielder tells Walter Villa of Baseball America (subscription required). The Blue Jays, with whom Ramirez played at the Double-A level from 2016-18, offered the largest bonus ($32K), but he accepted the Marlins’ $25K proposal because he believes they present a more immediate path to the majors. In fact, the Marlins informed Ramirez that only one of their outfielders, Lewis Brinson, is a lock for a major league roster spot in 2019. Considering the dearth of established outfielders on hand, the 24-year-old Ramirez – formerly a well-regarded prospect – will have an opportunity to vie for a big league job with the Marlins.
Mets Sign Arismendy Alcantara To Minors Deal
In a move that slipped through the MLBTR cracks, the Mets have reportedly agreed to a minor league contract with IF/OF Arismendy Alcantara.
Alcantara, 27, spent much of 2018 in the Mexican League after being designated for assignment by Cincinnati in late 2017. The versatile Dominican, who’s appeared at six positions during his four-year MLB tenure with the Cubs, A’s, and Reds, figures to be in the utility mix for a Mets club that’s been on a depth-piece binge for the better part of the offseason.
The 5’9 switch hitter burst onto the national prospect landscape after a strong 2013 showing for Chicago’s AA affiliate, slashing .271/.352/.451 with 31 steals in 133 games. A solid follow-up the next season left the then-22-year-old poised to become the charter MLB member of Chicago’s burgeoning minor-league crop, but big-league pitching soon stopped him in his tracks. Alcantara slashed just .205/.254/.367 in his first stint with the Cubs, and never seemed to regain his upper-minors mojo in subsequent demotions to AAA.
The Cubs quickly soured on the switch-hitter: a June 2016 trade sent Alcantara to Oakland, where he received scant opportunity with the parent club. The Reds picked him up the following year, where he scuffled through an injury-riddled campaign before being jettisoned in late summer. Alcantara did show promise in last year’s Mexican League stint, and still boasts considerable upside, given his both-sides power and ability to hold down multiple defensive forts, if he can somehow recapture his mid-decade form.
NL Notes: Giants, Mets, Reds
Speaking alongside President and CEO Larry Baer, Farhan Zaidi rationalizes the Giants’ winter action thus far, saying “Our goal this offseason has been to surround our core of players, which we still believe is a championship core of players, with the right complementary players.” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle provides the clip (via Twitter), wherein Zaidi charms a crowd with good-natured humor, referring to his title as “the guy who reports to [Baer],” while also holding firm to an offseason strategy that has preached patience above all else. To hear him refer to the roster as having a “championship core” feels a tad hopeful, though to his credit, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, did quite literally form the core of two World Series winners – three for Posey, Bumgarner and Pablo Sandoval, who were all on the 2010 squad. So while Zaidi’s not wrong, one might also point out they also have the core of an 84-win team, an 87-win team, a 64-win team, and a 73-win team. Let’s check in on the goings-on from a couple other NL clubs…
- While the Mets continue to keep tabs on lefty Gio Gonzalez, their interest has not reached the “multiyear level,” per sny.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). The Mets are emboldened by a strong second half from Jason Vargas, who combines with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler to form the presumptive starting five for the Amazins. Given the injury history of that group, starting depth is an important consideration for GM Brodie Van Wagenen, but Gonzalez should land a clearer path to a guaranteed rotation role elsewhere. If Gio’s market never does materialize, the Mets could circle back, but for the time being they appear content with the likes of Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt and Hector Santiago providing the rotation depth. Martino notes that Seth Lugo, who started 31 games for the Mets across the past three seasons, will not be considered for the rotation, as they plan on deploying him solely as a reliever in 2019. Lugo, 29, impressed in a swing role last year as his strikeout rate saw a year-over-year increase from 7.5 K/9 to 9.1 K/9.
- The Reds have been active on the trade market all winter, especially in hunting starting pitching. They were one of the teams with early noted interest in Corey Kluber before swinging separate deals for Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Sonny Gray. They have also kept tabs on J.T. Realmuto, still one of the teams in the running for the Marlins’ star backstop. One name that both the Indians and Marlins have asked about is Jonathan India, the Reds top draft choice from a year ago. Per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel (via Twitter), top prospects Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene, and Taylor Trammell are viewed as tough gets, leading teams to ask for India instead, but Cincinnati has as of yet refrained from including India in any kind of deal. It certainly makes sense for the Reds to hold onto India in the event that Scooter Gennett departs in free agency after 2019, but they’ll have a tough time getting a talent of Kluber’s or Realmuto’s caliber without surrendering any of the four aforementioned youngsters.
Outrighted: Gavin Cecchini, Max Povse
A pair of players has been outrighted after clearing waivers …
- The Mets will retain the rights to former first-round draft pick Gavin Cecchini, who was recently dropped from the 40-man roster and seemed a plausible candidate to be claimed. Evidently, no rival clubs were intrigued enough to create the roster space that would have been required. Cecchini is still just 25 years old and has at times hit well in the minors, but he has never developed much power and was limited by injuries last year.
- Also heading to Triple-A after losing his roster spot is Mariners righty Max Povse. The writing was on the wall after Povse scuffled through his two seasons with the Seattle organization, though the former third-rounder still has some impressive physical tools. The M’s will presumably be glad to hang on to the 6’8 hurler. If he throws well in camp or at the outset of the season, it’s still possible he could find his way back to the MLB mound in the season to come.
Padres, Mets Among Teams Interested In Gio Gonzalez
The Padres have been connected to a number of high-profile names over the past week — Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi now adds that they’re also considering free-agent lefty Gio Gonzalez. The Mets, too, have maintained contact with Scott Boras regarding Gonzalez, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).
Gonzalez, 33, has made 31 or more starts in all but one season dating back to 2010, with the lone exception being a 2014 campaign in which he took the ball 27 times. Last season, in 171 innings between the Nationals and Brewers, the two-time All-Star logged a respectable 4.21 ERA but did so with his lowest K/9 (7.8) and highest BB/9 (4.2) marks since cementing himself as a big league starter. Of course, a year prior, Gonzalez tossed 201 innings of 2.96 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.
Earlier this winter, the Padres were linked more to younger rotation options, as their goal at the time appeared to be to add a pitcher on a multi-year deal who’d still be in his prime during San Diego’s return to contention. Gonzalez may not fit that bill, though it’s also quite possible that like many other free agents, his asking price has dropped. And, it’d be easy enough for the Padres to fit Gonzalez into their rotation picture, given the general lack of experience among the team’s current rotation options. San Diego has numerous young options with more upside than Gonzalez, but Gonzalez is one of the most reliable sources starts remaining on the open market and could thus help to stabilize that young group.
As for the Mets, Puma notes that they’re debating internally whether he’s enough of an upgrade over in-house options. Certainly, Gonzalez would appear to be an upgrade over Jason Vargas, although Vargas is owed $8MM this season, which would likely be a factor to consider when potentially displacing him. Beyond that, it’s worth noting that each of Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler spent time on the disabled list last season. The Mets’ rotation is quite talented, though health has long been an issue for the collective group, and depth beyond the team’s top quintet is thin, too.
It’s been a quiet winter on the Gonzalez front, with few known suitors beyond today’s pairing, although the Brewers were mentioned as a possibility by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt just yesterday.
Mets Name John Ricco Senior Vice President & Strategy Officer
The Mets announced Tuesday evening that senior vice president of baseball operations/assistant general manager John Ricco will be changing roles and now holds the newly created title of senior vice president and senior strategy officer. The North Jersey Bergen Record’s Matt Ehalt first reported that Ricco was taking on a new role within the organization (Twitter links).
“John has been invaluable to this organization for many years,” Wilpon said in the press release announcing the change. “I’m extremely grateful that he’s remaining with us. He brings a wealth of knowledge on a variety of topics and we know he will have a lot of success in his new role.”
It’s a hybrid role for Ricco, who’ll continue to have a hand in baseball operations matters but will also report directly to chief operating officer Fred Wilpon and play a larger role in some key financial prospects for the club (e.g. construction projects at the team’s Spring Training and minor league facilities). On the baseball side of the coin, the Mets’ release specifies that Ricco will continue to work with general manager Brodie Van Wagenen in “salary arbitration and oversight of the Baseball Operations budget and Major League payroll.”
This past summer, Ricco was one of three veteran executives tasked with overseeing the baseball operations department after Sandy Alderson stepped down from the position due to a recurrence of the cancer he’d battled for several years. (Alderson, for those who missed it, accepted a role as a senior advisor in the Athletics front office earlier today.) Ricco, J.P. Ricciardi and Omar Minaya split Alderson’s duties among them, but Ricciardi is no longer in the organization and it seems now that Ricco will have a more limited role in baseball operations after it was long believed that he was being groomed as a possible successor to Alderson.
Dillon Gee Announces Retirement
Right-hander Dillon Gee took to Instagram on Monday evening to announce that after a professional career that spanned more than a decade and included parts of eight MLB seasons and a season in Japan, he is retiring from the game.
Gee, who’ll turn 33 in April, spent the 2018 season with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but, prior to that, appeared in eight consecutive MLB seasons with the Mets, Royals, Rangers and Twins.
Gee’s most prominent role came with the Mets, his original organization, from the 2011-14 seasons, during which he was largely a fixture in the team’s rotation. Gee appeared in 101 games, 98 of them starts, across that four-year stretch and gave the Mets a fairly steady stream of reliable innings. While he was oft overshadowed by a series of vaunted arms who were emerging on the scene around that same time (e.g. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler), Gee turned in 606 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball in that four-year period.
Unfortunately, as is the case with so many pitchers, injuries took their toll on Gee following that run. Gee dealt with a blood clot that required surgery in 2012 and perhaps even more detrimentally underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet surgery following the 2016 season. He’d go on to return with better results than many TOS patients, pitching to a 3.47 ERA through 49 1/3 innings between the Rangers and Twins in 2017, though that also proved to be his last MLB action.
In all, Gee will retire with a career 51-48 record, a 4.09 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 over the life of 853 2/3 Major League innings. Though he’ll retire at a relatively young age, Gee still did quite well for himself in baseball, taking home north of $13MM in player salaries — a sum that most 21st-round selections can scarcely fathom.
Mets Designate Gavin Cecchini, Announce Justin Wilson Signing
The Mets have designated infielder Gavin Cecchini for assignment, per a club announcement. His roster spot will go to just-signed reliever Justin Wilson, whose previously reported deal is now official.
Cecchini, 25, was the 12th overall pick in the 2012 draft. Clearly, his development has not gone as anticipated at that time. He has appeared briefly in the majors, but has not yet come close to commanding a full chance at the game’s highest level.
Perhaps it’s not too soon to give up hope on Cecchini, who turned in a pair of productive upper-minors campaigns at the plate in 2015-16 but has fallen off the pace since. The high-contact, low-power hitter scuffled a bit in 2017 and missed much of the ensuing season with a foot injury, though he hit just fine when healthy.
For the Mets, there were obviously too many infield alternatives and too many other roster demands to hang on to Cecchini. One significant factor is likely the fact that he has largely moved over to second base from shortstop, limiting his pathways to the majors.
At this point, perhaps, the smart money is on a future as a utility player. That said, there’s still some real potential value. And other teams may well think that Cecchini still has the tools to become a significant performer. With one more option year remaining, he could be a trade or waiver-wire target for clubs that have an under-utilized roster spot and want to take a shot.
NL Notes: Mets, Harper, Machado, Rockies, Dodgers, Kenley, Reds
The Mets haven’t been connected to outfielder Bryce Harper or infielder Manny Machado – the best free agents available this offseason – in part because, “I don’t know how many teams have two $30-million players,” COO Jeff Wilpon said this week (via Tim Healey of Newsday). Wilpon was alluding to the Mets’ highest-paid player, outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who will make just shy of $30MM per year over the next two seasons. But Cespedes is not under contract thereafter, may not even play in 2019 because of heel problems, and will have insurance cover some portion of his money while he’s on the shelf. Still, whether the outfield’s a pressing need for the Mets is debatable, as they have Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton headlining that group. Wilpon noted the Mets “have some pretty good lefty outfielders” in Nimmo and Conforto, lessening the need for Harper. Entering the offseason, they weren’t as fortunate on the left side of their infield, where Machado could have made a huge difference. The team has since signed Jed Lowrie, though, and it’s seemingly content to go forward with him as its primary third baseman and Amed Rosario at shortstop. However, even after reeling in Lowrie (and acquiring other pricey veterans in Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson), the Mets are still roughly $40MM under the luxury tax, Healey points out. Nevertheless, the big-market club is apparently content to stay out of the sweepstakes for both Harper and Machado.
More from around the National League…
- Although the Rockies’ Bud Black is entering a contract year, the manager’s not fazed by his uncertain status beyond 2019. “Those thing work themselves out,” said Black (via Nick Groke of The Athletic). If Black wants to stay with the Rockies, it’ll be a surprise if they don’t extend him this offseason or sometime prior to next winter, as he’s easily their most successful manager ever in terms of winning percentage (.548). The Rockies have made the playoffs in each of the well-regarded Black’s two seasons on the job and gone 178-147.
- Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, who underwent surgery in November to address an irregular heartbeat, told J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group and other reporters Saturday that he’s back at full strength. Pitching in the thin air of Colorado has been particularly problematic in recent years for Jansen, who was hospitalized after a game there last August, but trips to Coors Field won’t be an issue for him going forward. “If I’m hydrated I should be fine,” Jansen said.
- Earlier this offseason, John Farrell interviewed for the Reds’ managerial position – a job that ultimately went to David Bell. While Farrell was among many runners-up in that derby, he’ll still work with the Reds in 2019, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. After serving as a scout and advisor last year, his first in Cincinnati, he’ll function as a pitching consultant during the upcoming season. Farrell, 56, is best known for his run as Boston’s manager from 2013-17, during which the team went 432-378, took home three division titles and won a World Series championship (’13).