NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich
There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).
Here’s more from the National League:
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta‘s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
- The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
- Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.
Mets GM Sandy Alderson Takes Leave Of Absence Following Cancer Recurrence
6:20pm: Asked whether he’d return should be again be declared cancer-free, Alderson offered a candid assessment of his recent work (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). “[I]f I were to look at it on the merits, I’m not sure coming back is warranted,” Alderson said, in a nod to his team’s 31-45 record. Joel Sherman of the New York Post, meanwhile, writes that while Alderson and COO Jeff Wilpon neglected to go further into the prospect of the future, Tuesday’s press conference “sound[ed] like a goodbye to the job.”
The Post’s Mike Puma tweets that in the interim, there’s an expectation that Ricco will serve as the de facto point man, with Minaya and Ricciardi serving as experienced advisers and sounding boards. It’s been reported on multiple occasions in the past that the organization views Ricco as something of an heir apparent to Alderson anyhow, and the coming months could serve as an audition of sorts for the longtime AGM.
3:12pm: Mets GM Sandy Alderson will take a leave of absence to address a recurrence of cancer, the organization announced. Tim Britton of The Athletic (Twitter links) was among those to cover the news.
Alderson, 70, previously took a leave of absence in December of 2015 owing to a cancer diagnosis. He was later able to resume his duties as the top baseball decisionmaker, a role he has held since the end of the 2010 season.
In Alderson’s absence, top lieutenants John Ricco, J.P. Ricciardi, and Omar Minaya will run the baseball operations department. That group brings decades of baseball operations experience to the table. Ricco has been an assistant GM with the Mets since 2006, while Minaya is a former Mets GM himself. Ricciardi, meanwhile, was once the general manager of the Blue Jays.
It is not known at this time how long Alderson will be away, but he says that he will likely undergo surgery later this summer. Fortunately, the veteran executive says that the prognosis is good. MLBTR joins those around the game in sending its best wishes for a rapid and full recovery.
2018 Amateur Draft Signings: 6/25/18
Here are today’s most notable signings from the first few rounds of the draft. Scouting reports and pre-draft rankings can be found courtesy of MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two available to subscribers only)…
- The Mets have agreed to a $1,038,000 bonus with third-rounder Carlos Cortes, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). That handily tops the $705,300 allocation for the 83rd overall pick. The Fangraphs prospect team was far and away the highest on Cortes, rating him as the 82nd-best prospect on their list. Cortes is best known for being a switch-thrower. While that talent is of limited utility for an outfielder, he is considered a talented hitter. Despite some ups and downs over the years, Cortes has generally been productive at the plate for the University of South Carolina, though he’ll have to hit quite a bit as a pro since he’s expected to be limited to playing left field. According to the MLB.com draft tracker, the Mets have now secured contracts with all of their top ten picks.
Poll: Should the Mets Trade Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard?
With the possible exceptions of the Blue Jays’ J.A. Happ and resurgent Padre Tyson Ross, it doesn’t appear any front-end starters will switch teams prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Even though Happ’s amid a fourth straight quality season and Ross has bounced back from major injury troubles, nobody would consider either as aces or players capable of bringing back enormous returns in the coming weeks. The opposite is true in regards to the Mets’ Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, two elite, controllable starters who have come up in trade speculation as the season has progressed.
With the Mets in the throes of an embarrassing campaign in which they’ve plummeted to 31-43 after an 11-1 start, odds are they’ll be inclined to sell before the deadline. And while they’re reportedly willing to listen to potential offers for everyone on their roster, their front office is divided over whether to actually entertain proposals for either deGrom or Syndergaard. One thing’s clear: Their farm system, which Baseball America ranks as the game’s fourth worst, would stand to benefit significantly if the Mets were to part with one or both of their aces.
Despite the potential long-term gains that would come from a deGrom and/or Syndergaard bidding war among contenders, making either available isn’t an obvious decision for the Mets. If New York’s counting on returning to relevance in the near future, both players would factor prominently into a turnaround, given that they’ll remain under affordable control for a while longer. The 29-year-old deGrom comes with arbitration eligibility through 2020 and Syndergaard, 25, isn’t due for free agency until after 2021. The Mets may elect to retain them, then, hoping that those two and a position player group including Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, 2018 injury case Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, struggling youngster Amed Rosario and struggling veteran Jay Bruce help key a return to contention next season.
Part of the reason this has been a disastrous year for the Mets has been the absence of Syndergaard, who went on the disabled list May 29 with a a strained ligament in his right index finger. It’s the second straight year the Mets have had to make do for an extended period sans Syndergaard, who only threw 30 1/3 innings in 2017 on account of a partially torn right lat. Syndergaard’s reportedly progressing in his recovery, though, and his trade value remains immense – as Mets general manager Sandy Alderson suggested when speaking to the media Friday.
“I know how we view him and where he will be once we get him back and I know how the rest of baseball views him,” Alderson said (via Erin Fish of MLB.com). “For that reason I say I know what we have, but at the same time you never say never.”
Along with his “never say never” line, Alderson noted (via David Lennon of Newsday) that the Mets would have to consider offers for their aces if a team comes to them saying, “We’ll give you all of our top-20 prospects.” So, barring an absolutely overwhelming proposal for either deGrom or Syndergaard, it seems the Mets will retain the pair through the season. Should New York do that, though, or would the team be better off trying to bolster its farm system by moving one or both in the next month?
(poll link for app users)
What should the Mets do with their co-aces?
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Trade both 35% (3,236)
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Keep both 35% (3,209)
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Trade deGrom 15% (1,438)
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Trade Syndergaard 15% (1,418)
Total votes: 9,301
NL Notes: Mets, Braves, Giants, Phillies
The Mets will send left-hander Jason Vargas to the disabled list and recall righty Chris Flexen from Triple-A, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Vargas is dealing with a strained calf, thus continuing a disastrous age-35 season for him. After joining the Mets on a two-year, $16MM deal in free agency, Vargas has gone on the DL twice (once for a broken bone in his right hand) and managed horrid numbers in between. With 37 2/3 innings pitched in nine starts, Vargas has averaged just over four frames per appearance and notched an 8.60 ERA/6.55 FIP.
- Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino is battling right shoulder soreness, which has been a concern throughout the season, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Vizcaino had a cortisone injection this week, per Bowman, and manager Brian Snitker noted that “there are times, he’s going to have to be down just to get him through the year.” Despite the 27-year-old’s shoulder issues, the first-place Braves weren’t interested in ponying up for fellow late-game option Kelvin Herrera, whom the division-rival Nationals acquired from the Royals this week.
- More on the Braves, who optioned outfielder Preston Tucker to Triple-A on Saturday and recalled right-hander Lucas Sims, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Tucker helped hold the fort down in the outfield before the promotion of now-injured super prospect Ronald Acuna in late April, though the former’s output has fallen off dramatically as the season has progressed. After posting a respectable 105 wRC+ in April, Tucker fell to 76 in May and 42 this month.
- The Giants optioned outfielder Mac Williamson to Triple-A on Saturday and recalled fellow outfielder Austin Slater to replace him. Williamson began the year on a hot streak, but he suffered a concussion in late April and hasn’t gotten back on track since returning May 25. Overall, he has hit a below-average .213/.295/.383 in 105 plate appearances. The Giants’ hope is that he’ll “regain his swing and confidence” by playing every day in the minors, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.
- Phillies reliever Pat Neshek began a rehab assignment at the Single-A level Saturday, though it’s still not known when he could return to the majors, Kyle Melnick of MLB.com relays. After Neshek enjoyed an excellent season between Philly and Colorado in 2017, the Phillies brought him back on a two-year, $16MM deal over the winter. But shoulder and forearm injuries have prevented the 37-year-old from taking the mound this season.
Angels Claim Hansel Robles
The Angels announced today that they’ve claimed righty reliever Hansel Robles off waivers from the Mets. Robles was designated for assignment just yesterday. Rene Rivera was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to make room on the expanded roster.
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at that time, Robles put up some solid numbers for the Mets during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He pitched 131 2/3 innings during that span, allowing 52 earned runs while racking up 146 strikeouts. Robles also pitched three scoreless postseason innings in 2015 without allowing a walk or a hit.
That seems to be in the distant past now, as Robles has an ERA close to 5.00 since the start of the 2017 season. He’s also seen a spike in his walk rate to 4.59 BB/9 during that time frame. Still, the Angels will hope he can add depth to a bullpen that seems to lack stability, as they’ve got a number of relievers with upside but none who have proven themselves reliable across an extended stretch. For the time being, Robles will report to Triple-A Salt Lake.
NL Notes: Kershaw, Cespedes, Strasburg, Robles, Machado
In a surprise move, the Dodgers announced today that ace Clayton Kershaw will start the club’s game tomorrow, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times was among those to tweet. Kershaw, who is coming back from a lower back strain, had been scheduled for a rehab outing but evidently felt up to the task of jumping back to the bigs after missing about three weeks of action. That’s promising news for the Los Angeles organization, which will hope that the southpaw can not only avoid a third trip to the DL this year, but return to form after a less-than-dominant (by his lofty standards, at least) start to the season.
More from the National League:
- The Mets, on the other hand, will face off against Kershaw without one of their key players. Slugger Yoenis Cespedes has been down longer than might have been hoped with a hip injury. While the club announced today that Cespedes is still not running or taking part in baseball activities due to ongoing symptoms, GM Sandy Alderson suggested it’s possible the veteran outfielder may get moving again early next week. (Via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, on Twitter.) At this point, though, it’s still anyone’s guess just when he may make it back to the bigs.
- For the Nationals, health has been a major problem all season long. The club has received reasonably promising news of late regarding two key assets, though. Stephen Strasburg has now thrown the ball twice this week without apparent incident, as Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com was among those to tweet. That seems to indicate that his shoulder inflammation is beginning to subside, though the real tests are surely yet to come. Meanwhile, president of baseball ops Mike Rizzo said in an appearance on 106.7 The Fan (via TalkNats.com) that outfield prospect Victor Robles is nearly ready to resume baseball activities after a long layoff from a hyper-extended elbow. If he’s able to progress from there, Robles may yet be back in action this year. The club may not call upon him to play a role in the majors in 2018, but having Robles available would surely be beneficial, and getting him back in action would also help with sorting the plans for 2019.
- The odds seem rather long, to say the least, but Jon Heyman of Fan Rag wrote yesterday that the Padres have at least checked in with the Orioles on star infielder Manny Machado. That connection might make greater sense if the Padres were a more plausible contender or, at least, if Machado was not slated to reach free agency at season’s end. As it stands, it’s tough to fathom the Friars unloading young talent in an attempt to chase the postseason this year. Doing so in earnest, in all likelihood, would mean adding multiple other pieces as well. It could still make sense, though, for the Padres to get a gauge on Baltimore’s situation. The Pads could face some 40-man pressures this winter, so there could be an opportunity to function as a part of a three-team arrangement. If the club is really feeling bold, perhaps it could make an early strike for Machado with plans to flip him if a sudden run up the standings doesn’t ensue, though a mid-season gambit of that kind involving a rental player of Machado’s caliber would be sui generis.
Mets Designate Hansel Robles For Assignment
The Mets have designated righty Hansel Robles for assignment, per a club announcement. With a need for roster spots to accommodate a pair of promotions, the team also moved AJ Ramos to the 60-day DL and optioned fellow right-handed relievers Paul Sewald and Chris Flexen.
Robles, 27, was a quality pen piece for the Mets in 2015 and 2016. But he has run into troubles more recently, spending time in the minors in each of the past two campaigns while struggling to deliver consistent results at the MLB level.
In total, Roblems has compiled a 4.95 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in hs past 76 1/3 innings. Beyond the walk problems, Robles has coughed up seven long balls in his 19 2/3 MLB frames this year.
Despite the issues, it isn’t hard to imagine another team deciding to take a shot on Robles. He still brings mid-nineties heat, can be optioned, and has a history of some success in the majors. On the other hand, he has posted a rather pedestrian 10.0% swinging-strike rate this year (which is actually an improvement on his 2017 numbers), to go with the other issues.
Mets GM Sandy Alderson did not exactly attempt to put a positive spin on Robles as his seven-day period of DFA limbo begins. “You kept seeing the same thing,” Alderson told reporters including Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). “The adjustments he needed to get consistent outs probably wasn’t going to happen.”
Mets Release Vance Worley
The Mets have released right-hander Vance Worley, reports Betsy Helfand of the Las Vegas Journal-Review (via Twitter). The veteran right-hander had been on the disabled list with the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Vegas.
Worley, 30, signed with the Mets back in mid-April to provide some rotation depth, but he made just four starts with the 51’s before landing on the disabled list with an elbow issue (per Helfand). The results weren’t pretty in the 16 2/3 inning Worley was healthy enough to pitch, as he was clobbered for 25 runs on 29 hits and a dozen walks with just five strikeouts.
Given the extreme nature of his struggles, it’s perhaps not surprising that he wound up on the DL with elbow troubles. Worley, after all, entered his stint with the Mets with a career 3.55 ERA in 278 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level and a 4.09 ERA in 667 big league innings. While he was coming off one of his worst big league seasons — 6.91 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 in 71 2/3 innings with Miami — it certainly does appear he was pitching at less than 100 percent in his brief time with Vegas.
Depending on the health of his elbow moving forward, Worley could well land with another organization as a depth option in the upper minors later this season. The righty did post a 3.38 ERA (3.98 FIP) in 269 innings from 2014-16 with the Pirates and Orioles.
Mets To Select Drew Smith, Kevin Kaczmarski
The Mets announced following today’s game that they’ve optioned righties Paul Sewald and Chris Flexen to Triple-A Las Vegas. While the team said that corresponding moves won’t be announced until tomorrow, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports that the organization will select the contracts of right-handed reliever Drew Smith and outfielder Kevin Kaczmarski (Twitter link). Kaczmarski was scratched from tonight’s lineup for the 51’s, Betsy Helfand of the Las Vegas Journal-Review tweets.
That pair of additions to the 40-man roster will require another pair of corresponding moves. The Mets, obviously, can move AJ Ramos from the 10-day DL to the 60-day DL to account for one of those moves, now that Ramos has undergone surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.
The second move isn’t yet clear. It’s possible that they could designate someone for assignment or release someone — Jose Reyes has been rumored to be on thin ice — and DiComo speculates that the team could recall injured righty Jamie Callahan and put him on the MLB 60-day DL, as he’s already out for the year.
[Related: New York Mets depth chart]
In Smith, the Mets will be getting their first MLB look at the hard-throwing righty they acquired from the Rays in last year’s Lucas Duda trade. The 24-year-old has worked to a 3.00 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate through 30 innings in an excessively hitter-friendly environment. MLB.com ranks him as the team’s No. 30 prospect, praising his plus heater and above-average curveball and writing that he has “all the ingredients to be an effective short reliever.”
Kaczmarski, 26, has just 24 games of experience at the Triple-A level, but a combination of his impressive numbers and several injuries in the Mets’ outfield mix has opened an opportunity for him in the Majors, it seems. The 2015 ninth-rounder has hit .363/.413/.450 through 92 plate appearances in Vegas and has a track record of relatively low strikeout rates and solid walk rates. For a Mets club that is currently using Dominic Smith in left field with Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Juan Lagares all on the disabled list, it’s only logical to see a more natural outfield option join the fray.