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Latest On Madison Bumgarner’s Market

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TODAY, 1:58pm: The Cardinals could also have interest in Bumgarner, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.

WEDNESDAY, 7:52pm: The Reds are indeed among the teams with ongoing interest in Bumgarner, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Cincinnati has been aggressive thus far and has also been linked to free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, further backing reports that they’re willing to sign players who rejected a qualifying offer.

5:35pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests otherwise regarding the White Sox, writing that they’ve been zeroed in on Wheeler and have yet to even enter into negotiations with Bumgarner’s camp.

2:45pm: Zack Wheeler is off the board on a reported five-year, $118MM agreement with the Phillies, and it sounds like a decision from fellow free agent Madison Bumgarner might not be far behind. Even before word of Wheeler’s agreement broke, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted that some within the industry also expect Bumgarner to sign before the Winter Meetings begin next week.

At this point, the Twins and White Sox are among the “heaviest” suitors for the longtime Giants lefty, tweets Andy Martino of SNY, who adds that the Yankees are involved “to some degree.” Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that even after the Braves signed Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18MM deal earlier today, they’re still not completely out of the Bumgarner bidding. And ESPN’s Buster Olney somewhat speculatively links the Reds, who also pursued but missed out on Wheeler, to the Bumgarner market as well (Twitter link). Other clubs are surely involved as well.

It seems unlikely that the bidding for Bumgarner will escalate to the same heights as the Wheeler market, although USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted earlier that the Braves jumped on Hamels in part due to concerns that Bumgarner’s price could approach $100MM.

Regardless of where he lands, there’s little doubt that Bumgarner is among the best arms on the market this winter. He’s not the clear-cut ace that he was earlier in his career when he was busy establishing himself as a postseason legend, but the 30-year-old Bumgarner still posted a 3.90 ERA and a matching FIP through 207 2/3 innings this past season. His average fastball velocity (91.4 mph) and strikeout rate (8.8 K/9, 24.1 percent) are both down a bit from peak levels, but Bumgarner still displayed impeccable command (1.9 BB/9) this past season and topped 30 starts for the first time since his injuring his shoulder in 2017’s dirt-bike debacle.

Bumgarner has made 55 starts across the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.66 ERA (110 ERA+, 3.94 FIP) while averaging 8.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, meaning he’ll require some draft and possibly international bonus forfeitures (with exact compensation dependent on which team ultimately signs him). At this point, there’s little indication that the incumbent Giants are a serious player for Bumgarner, but they’re in position to recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next year’s draft (as they did when Will Smith signed with the Braves).

Yankees Meet With Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg

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Dec. 4: Cole assured the Yankees at their meeting that he has “no west coast bias” at an in-person meeting that lasted for more than four hours, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the meeting with Strasburg went well, also. Specific dollars weren’t discussed, as the Yankees first endeavored to give Strasburg an overview of the organization and its pitching philosophies.

Dec. 2: The Yankees’ rotation was under fire throughout 2019, a year in which they came a couple victories short of their first World Series appearance since 2009. The reigning AL East winners are now focusing on upgrading their starting staff, as they’re seriously considering going after the premier starting pitchers on the market. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required), New York’s prioritizing right-hander Gerrit Cole – who, as a member of the Astros – helped knock the Yankees out of the ALCS. The Yankees are also interested in the No. 2 starter available, righty Stephen Strasburg, and they’ll sit down with him and Cole in California sometime over the next two days, Rosenthal reports.

Since the Yankees’ season ended, general manager Brian Cashman hasn’t made it any secret that they’ll scan the top of the market for starting help. However, as deep-pocketed as the Yankees are, it has been quite some time since they’ve gone to the lengths it would require to sign either Cole or Strasburg in free agency.

Cole is likely in line to obliterate the largest contract ever for a pitcher – the seven-year, $217MM deal David Price signed with the Red Sox entering 2016 – while the World Series MVP Strasburg could approach $200MM in his own right. Pacts like that could be problematic for New York if it wants to avoid severe luxury-tax penalties in 2020. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of FanGraphs and Roster Resource, the Yankees are already at roughly $215MM toward the luxury tax for next season, putting them over the first level of $208MM. The second and third levels of $228MM and $248MM, respectively, would obviously be much harder to avoid with Cole or Strasburg in the mix.

Owner Hal Steinbrenner spoke about possibly spending over the largest tax threshold Monday, telling the YES Network (via Tim Healey of Newsday): “It’s a big deal. It’s something we would certainly prefer not to do because there are June draft ramifications, there are numerous ramifications. But that is something I would consider.”

Indeed, if the Yankees were to go past $248MM, their draft slot would fall 10 places in 2020. However, Steinbrenner noted: “[The Yankees already have] a good rotation, but starting pitching, you can’t have enough. Like last year, that’s going to be my focus. You’ll have to ask [Brian Cashman] if he agrees with me or not. That’s all.”

The Yankees already have at least three rotation spots sewn up for next season. Luis Severino, whom injuries prevented from making much of an impact this year, will be back to join a group that boasts James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as complements. There’s less certainty thereafter, though, with Domingo German on administrative leave for a violation of the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, J.A. Happ coming off a rough season and Jordan Montgomery still trying to re-establish himself after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Yankees will take advantage of their financial might to sign Cole or Strasburg, but they’re at least mulling it.

Dodgers, Angels Have Held In-Person Meetings With Gerrit Cole

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The Dodgers and Angels “have gotten face time” with free agent ace Gerrit Cole, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Those teams have long rated among the top theoretical possibilities for the California native.

Cole has recently been wooed in person by the Yankees, who’d like to roll out the red carpet for him in the Bronx. Sherman provides a detailed explanation of the organization’s approach — including his belief that Cole’s general predilection for the West Coast won’t prevent him from donning pinstripes.

It’s completely unsurprising to hear of the Halos’ involvement. The organization is desperate to get back to winning, has a glaring need for pitching and money to spend, and is now set to embark upon a new potential revenue source after agreeing to a deal with the city of Anaheim.

As for the Dodgers, they were already known to have held sit-downs with two other high-end free agents. Now, they’re at least a legitimate player on Cole, though the true interest level isn’t known. This level of investment is well within the organization’s financial capabilities but hasn’t really been part of its approach of late. The team has been willing to spend gobs of money on short-term arrangements. Whether it’ll approach Cole with such a scenario, providing an alternative to a lengthier term and greater overall guarantee, remains to be seen.

Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays

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There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Here’s more from other areas of the market:

  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
  • The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
  • We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
  • The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.

AL Notes: Lindor, Wheeler, Yanks, Twins

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Let’s take a quick look around the American League…

  • Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor is a prominent trade candidate, at least speculatively. However, as you’d expect, it’s going to be extremely difficult to pry the superstar out of Cleveland. The Indians would have to be “overwhelmed” by an offer in order to part with the 26-year-old four-time All-Star this offseason, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com writes. Lindor has just two years of control left and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension, meaning there’s a case the Indians should strongly consider trading him before next season. However, the perennial contenders apparently want to see how they fare coming out of the gate next season before deciding Lindor’s future, Hoynes suggests. If that’s the case, we may not see a Lindor trade until at least around next July’s trade deadline.
  • Right-hander Zack Wheeler has become popular on the open market, but it doesn’t appear the longtime Met will be sticking in New York. Although the Yankees have shown interest in the hard-throwing Wheeler, they seemingly aren’t willing to hand him a nine-figure contract, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. Signs are pointing to the 29-year-old Wheeler landing a contract worth at least $100MM, so if the Yankees don’t want to go there, they’ll likely have to look elsewhere for starting help.
  • Righty Matt Wisler, whom the Twins claimed off waivers from the Mariners in October, will make just over $700K in 2020, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. That looks like a rather team-friendly amount for the out-of-options Wisler, who had been projected to earn $1MM next season. The 27-year-old Wisler, a former top prospect, divided last season between Seattle and San Diego and logged a 5.61 ERA/4.23 FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates of 11.05 and 2.81 across 51 1/3 innings.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Andujar, Nishikawa, Giants, Bleier

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We’ll check out a few notes as we wrap up a quiet weekend around baseball.

  • The Rangers are “definitely intrigued” by the idea of acquiring Miguel Andújar from the Yankees to fill their third base vacancy, hears T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The Yankees have gotten numerous hits on Andújar this offseason, with interested teams perhaps looking to buy low after a labrum tear ended the 24-year-old’s season in April. With Gio Urshela having supplanted Andújar at the hot corner in the Bronx, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up now looks like an interesting trade candidate. Free agency remains an option for Texas, too; Sullivan hears the Rangers are still interested in Josh Donaldson, whom the MLBTR staff guessed would end up in Arlington on a three year, $75MM deal.
  • Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters outfielder Haruki Nishikawa hopes the team will make him available to MLB clubs via the posting system next offseason, reports Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Nishikawa, whom Coskrey describes as a “speedy, left-handed hitter,” has a cumulative .284/.376/.393 line in parts of eight NPB seasons. 2019 marked a bit of a step back from the past few years for the 27-year-old, as he slashed .288/.393/.385 with 19 stolen bases. Every year between 2016-18, though, Nishikawa stole at least 39 bags with an OPS north of .790. Nishikawa’s entering his final year under contract with the Fighters, but he won’t qualify for international free agency. Thus, he will need the Fighters, whom Coskrey notes has historically been the most amenable NPB team to posting its top players, including Shohei Ohtani, to agree to post him if he’s to gauge MLB interest in 2020.
  • The Giants are negotiating a deal with Indians’ infield coach/defensive coordinator Kai Correa, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (via Twitter). San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler is a “huge fan” of Correa’s, Baggarly adds. Correa has spent the past two years working with infielders in the Cleveland organization. He’d previously spent seven seasons coaching at the college level, including four at the University of Northern Colorado.
  • The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Richard Bleier to avoid arbitration, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter). Bleier is projected for a modest $1.1MM award in his first foray through the process. The left-handed sinkerballer has consistently posted an elite ground ball rate and been particularly stingy with walks, helping to overcome one of the game’s worst strikeout rates. Unfortunately, Bleier’s 5.37 ERA last season was over three runs per nine higher than the 1.97 career mark he carried entering the year.

Yankees Interested In Blake Treinen

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The Athletics have been in trade talks about some of their more prominent arbitration-eligible players, including former All-Star reliever Blake Treinen.  As per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), the Yankees are one of the clubs who have shown interest in a potential deal for the right-hander’s services.

According to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Treinen is projected to receive a $7.8MM salary in is final year of arb eligibility before free agency.  It isn’t a huge raise from the $6.4MM salary Treinen earned in 2019 after beating the Athletics in an arbitration hearing, though since the A’s are always conscious about payroll limitations, it could be more than the team is willing to spend after Treinen’s performance dropped off last season.

Granted, some level of regression was almost inevitable given the outstanding nature of Treinen’s 2018 work.  The righty posted an 0.78 ERA, 51.9% grounder rate, and 4.76 K/BB rate while striking out 100 batters in 80 1/3 innings of work.  While there was some batted-ball luck involved, ERA predictors (1.82 FIP, 2.42 xFIP, 2.46 SIERA) still indicated an elite level of performance in Treinen’s first full year as Oakland’s closer.

Things turned sour in 2019, however, as Treinen posted a 4.91 ERA, 42.8% grounder rate, and 1.59 K/BB rate over 58 2/3 innings.  As compared to 2018, Treinen had big spikes in his walk rate (2.4 BB/9 to 5.7 BB/9) and homer rate (0.2 HR/9 to 1.4 HR/9), and batters made far more solid contact (.236 xwOBA to .334 xwOBA).  Injuries surely played a role, as Treinen missed a couple of weeks due to a shoulder strain and then was shut down in late September after pitching with stress reaction in his back for the better part of a month.

Still, these recent health issues also surely aren’t helpful for the A’s in evaluating whether or not to spend a big chunk of their payroll space on a reliever who pitched at a sub-replacement level last season.  Roster Resource projects the A’s at a 2020 payroll of just under $111.3MM, which would be well over the team’s franchise high of approximately $101.4MM at the end of the 2016 season.

While it can be assumed that the Athletics would be open to spending more than usual to take the next step on a roster that has reached the AL Wild Card game in each of the last two years, quite a bit of extra space could be freed up if Oakland were to trade or non-tender Treinen, Jurickson Profar ($5.8MM arb projection) and/or Josh Phegley ($2.2MM).  Despite Treinen’s projected salary and his rough 2019, his 2018 performance is fresh enough in teams’ minds that finding a trade partner seems feasible for the A’s before Monday’s non-tender deadline.

It isn’t any surprise that the Yankees are among the teams who have come calling, given their reliance on a loaded bullpen in recent years.  If Treinen can find even a middle ground between his 2018 and 2019 numbers, he’d be yet another fearsome addition within New York’s already-strong collection of Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle, not to mention the plethora of other interesting young arms in the mix.  In theory, Treinen would be replacing free agent Dellin Betances, though the Yankees already went virtually the entire season without any contributions from Betances during an injury-ravaged year for the right-hander.

Though the Yankees have some payroll concerns of their own in terms of the luxury tax, Treinen’s $7.8MM figure isn’t an overly exorbitant sum, plus some money could be sent back Oakland’s way in the form of another player’s salary.  Beyond just a pure salary dump, it would be interesting to see what sort of creative deal could be swung between two clubs that figure to be contending for the American League pennant next season.  Billy Beane and Brian Cashman have swung a few interesting trades during their long tenures running their respective front offices, perhaps most notably the July 2017 swap that sent Sonny Gray to New York for a three-prospect package.

Yankees Reportedly Among Teams Interested In Royals’ Tim Hill

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There is “plenty of trade interest” in Royals submarining left-hander Tim Hill, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. The Yankees are among Hill’s most ardent suitors, according to Feinsand.

While he didn’t debut in the majors until 2018 and hasn’t posted lights-out results since then, it’s still not hard to see Hill’s appeal. He’s a respectable reliever who comes with several years’ team control, as he’s not slated to reach arbitration until after the 2021 season or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign.

The groundball-heavy Hill’s coming off a season in which he induced worm burners at a 57.3 percent rate, struck out 8.85 batters per nine and walked 2.95. Those solid numbers helped the soon-to-be 30-year-old to a 3.63 ERA/3.84 FIP across 39 2/3 innings. And the relatively soft-tossing Hill, owner of a 90.2 mph average fastball velocity this past year, proved capable of retiring same- and right-handed hitters. Granted, Hill was markedly better against lefties (.217 wOBA) than righties (.316).

For the Yankees, adding Hill would seemingly give an already strong bullpen a third sturdy lefty to go with Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman. The club’s bullpen is facing the departure of righty Dellin Betances in free agency, though injuries prevented him from factoring in during its 103-victory, AL East-winning campaign in 2019.

Greg Bird Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

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1:07pm: The Yankees announced that Bird has indeed rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

12:35pm: Now-former Yankees first baseman Greg Bird has cleared waivers, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s officially available on the open market.

This isn’t how the Yanks expected things to end. The now-27-year-old had a big 2015 debut, hitting .261/.343/.529 with 11 homers in 178 plate appearances, creating some optimism that he could settle in as a long-term option at first base. As one would expect given that rookie output, Bird was afforded quite a few opportunities over the years, but on-field struggles and injury issues sapped him of staying power.

In the past four seasons, Bird has only managed to stay on the field for 140 games and 522 plate appearances, recording a woeful .194/.287/.388 batting line in that time. Ultimately, Bird took seven hundred plate appearances for the Yankees. He hit 32 home runs and carried a .211/.301/.424 slash line. He has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining and should latch on with another club in need of first base/DH depth.

Yankees Trade Nestor Cortes Jr. To Mariners

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1:41pm: The two teams have both announced the move.

“Nestor is a versatile lefty who can do a little bit of everything,” Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said in a statement announcing the swap. “He can start, he can relieve, he can give you those middle innings or even operate as an opener.”

Seattle’s 40-man roster is now at 36 players.

1:30pm: The Yankees have traded left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. to the Mariners in exchange for international bonus allotments, Buster Olney of ESPN reports (via Twitter). New York designated Cortes for assignment last week when setting the 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Cortes, 25 next month, has appeared in 37 big league games over the past two seasons — all but one of which was a relief outing. Though he’s been a longtime Yankees farmhand, the lefty actually made his MLB debut with the Orioles in 2018 after Baltimore selected him in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. He wasn’t able to hold his roster spot, however, and was returned to the Yankees during the ’18 season.

This past year, Cortes made his Yankees debut but limped to a 5.67 ERA in 66 2/3 innings. He averaged 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and logged a 10.5 percent swinging-strike rate, but Cortes also averaged 3.8 walks and 2.2 home runs per nine frames in his limited time with the Yanks. He doesn’t generate many grounders (34.2 percent), nor does he throw especially hard (89.6 mph average fastball), but lefties with strong Triple-A track records and minor league options remaining will always have some appeal throughout the league. Cortes has a pair of options left and, in 205 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level, has a 3.11 ERA with 8.7 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. A move to a more pitcher-friendly setting could certainly help to curb the home-run troubles that plagued him in 2019, and at the very least he’ll give the Mariners some depth both in the rotation and as a long relief option.

The amount of money the Yankees received in return for Cortes isn’t presently known, but international allotments have to be traded in blocks of $250K, so New York picked up at least that much in additional resources to add to its pool.

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