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Health Notes: Paxton, Rodgers, Morrow, Buttrey

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As spring training games kick off, let’s check in on some injury situations around the game.

  • The early stages of James Paxton’s recovery from February back surgery have been promising, reports Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Paxton is “optimistic” he’ll begin a throwing program around ten days from now, relays Ackert. Paxton suggested he could be back in the Yankees’ rotation by May, which would be at the early end of the three to four month estimate for his recovery immediately post-surgery. A prompt return from the southpaw is perhaps even more important with Luis Severino now dealing with uncertainty of his own. The 31-year-old Paxton posted a solid 3.82 ERA with strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (8.7%) rates over 150.2 innings in his first season in pinstripes in 2019.
  • Rockies’ infielder Brendan Rodgers is ahead of schedule in his own recovery from surgery. The season-ending shoulder procedure he underwent last June was expected to keep him out until sometime in May, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com, but that timetable could be moving up. Rodgers is hitting without pain, Harding reports, and the infielder estimated he could log reps at DH by March 3. The next step, Harding adds, is for Rodgers to begin a throwing program from shortstop, although he’s already throwing from 160 feet without pain, he says. The former top prospect tells Harding not to rule out a potential Opening Day return.
  • In less promising news, Cubs’ reliever Brandon Morrow has been shut down “for at least a few days” with a “mild right upper chest strain,” reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter link). Morrow’s timetable for return is unclear, Bastian adds. Standing alone, a non-arm problem wouldn’t be all that worrisome at this stage of spring training. With Morrow’s litany of prior injuries, though, it’s certainly concerning to hear he’s again fighting through pain. Morrow re-signed with the Cubs on a minor-league deal this offseason after injuries wrecked his first two years with the organization. When healthy, the 35-year-old has proven a highly-effective option in the late innings.
  • Another high-leverage reliever, Angels’ right-hander Ty Buttrey, expects to throw off a mound by next Thursday, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Buttrey suffered an intercostal strain last week, but it never seemed particularly serious. He should be a full go for Opening Day, Fletcher adds.

MLBTR Poll: Last Year’s Division Champs

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Of the six teams that finished in first place in their divisions in 2018, three (the Red Sox, Indians and Brewers) failed to defend their crowns last season. Two (the Red Sox and Indians) didn’t even make the playoffs, so ruling your division one year doesn’t mean you’ll end up in the postseason the next. Last season, the Yankees, Astros and Twins finished atop their divisions in the American League, while the Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals were the top seeds in the NL. Among those six, who’s the most vulnerable going into the new season? Let’s review the offseasons they’ve had…

AL:

  • Astros: If you’ve paid any attention to baseball in the past several weeks, you know this offseason has been a catastrophe for the Astros. They got rid of general manager Jeff Luhnow and skipper A.J. Hinch as a result of a sign-stealing scandal that has rocked baseball, replacing them with James Click and Dusty Baker. The Astros are still loaded with talent, but they lost the great Gerrit Cole even before their sign-stealing shenanigans came to light. Now, there’s plenty of skepticism they’ll put together a fourth straight 100-win season after such a horrendous winter – one in which they were very quiet in free agency. What’s more, they’re stuck in a division with a legit challenger in Oakland and two improving clubs in the Angels and Rangers.
  • Yankees: New York took Cole from Houston, which has been the Wile E. Coyote to the Yankees’ Road Runner in recent postseasons. The Yankees looked as if they’d have a tremendous rotation with Cole, Luis Severino, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as their top four, but health woes are already haunting the club yet again after an injury-riddled 2019. Severino, who barely pitched last season, is now facing a very worrisome situation with his forearm; meanwhile, Paxton will sit out until at least May or June as a result of back surgery. The Yankees are still laden with talent, and they remain capable of pulverizing the opposition with their offense, but some of the shine has come off since the Cole signing because of the Severino and Paxton situations. Fortunately for the Yankees, there may only be one team capable of standing up to them in the AL East – the Rays.
  • Twins: It was quite a winter for the Twins, who bolstered their rotation with the additions of Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. They also retained Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Perhaps more importantly, they signed third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92MM – the largest contract they’ve ever given out in free agency. So, a team that hit an all-time record 307 home runs in 2019 seems as if it’ll put a similarly scary offense on the field this year. The Twins could face more resistance in their division from the White Sox, who had an aggressive winter, though the Indians haven’t really bettered themselves. The Tigers have, but they’ll still struggle to win many games, while the Royals also figure to wind up among the game’s worst teams.

(Poll link for app users)

Who is the AL's most vulnerable reigning division winner?
Astros 63.20% (7,781 votes)
Twins 23.33% (2,873 votes)
Yankees 13.47% (1,658 votes)
Total Votes: 12,312

NL:

  • Dodgers: What do you get the team that won 106 games last season? How about Mookie Betts, who’s on the short list of the greatest players in the game? With Betts in tow, the Dodgers will enter 2020 as the overwhelming favorites to win their division for the eighth year in a row, but an improved Arizona club should at least offer a decent challenge. The Padres have also worked to get better since last season ended, but they don’t appear to be any match for the stacked Dodgers, while the Rockies and Giants look to be way behind.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s down Donaldson, but it was rather active in adding free agents. The team plucked the likes of Marcell Ozuna, Will Smith, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud and Chris Martin off the open market. Hamels is dealing with shoulder problems, however, and it’s unclear when he’ll be able to pitch in 2020.  Regardless, the Braves still have quite a bit of premier talent (Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka spring to mind), so it’s easy to envision them winning a third consecutive division title. At the same time, the reigning world champion Nationals, the Mets and Phillies are realistic contenders for the NL East championship.
  • Cardinals: Aside from the Reds, a 75-win outfit a year ago, it wasn’t really a busy offseason for any NL Central team. That includes the Cardinals, whose biggest addition was Korean left-hander Kwang-Hyun Kim (and they lost their No. 1 free agent, the aforementioned Ozuna). They’re now set to open 2020 without one of their best starters in Miles Mikolas, who just received a platelet-rich plasma injection. The good news for St. Louis is that there’s no apparent juggernaut in its division, as the Cubs and Brewers have either stayed roughly the same or gotten worse since last year ended.

(Poll link for app users)

Who is the NL's most vulnerable reigning division winner?
Cardinals 73.68% (9,600 votes)
Braves 20.97% (2,732 votes)
Dodgers 5.36% (698 votes)
Total Votes: 13,030

Luis Severino Shut Down Due To Forearm Discomfort

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11:05am: Boone said this morning at Yankees camp that Severino will travel to New York and undergo another series of tests on Monday (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

February 21, 9:10am: A pair of MRIs and a CT scan have all come back negative, general manager Brian Cashman told reporters yesterday (video link via MLB.com). For now, Severino has been placed on a new anti-inflammatory and will be reevaluated in a few days’ time.

February 20: In yet another bit of troubling injury news for Yankees fans, manager Aaron Boone revealed Thursday that right-hander Luis Severino is experiencing forearm soreness that dates all the way back to his final ALCS appearance in 2019 (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  Severino also has a loose body in his elbow, per Boone.  He’ll be shut down for at least the next few days and will be examined by team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad tomorrow.  Asked if Severino would be ready for Opening Day, Boone could only reply, “We’ll see.”

While tomorrow’s doctor visit will shed more light on the specifics of Severino’s issue, obviously this isn’t at all how the righty hoped to begin his Spring Training, especially not in the wake of what was essentially a lost 2019 season.  Severino pitched only 20 1/3 total innings (12 in the regular season, 8 1/3 in the postseason) last year after a shoulder injury and then a lat strain kept him from making his season debut until September 17.

Any mention of a forearm injury also raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, the worst-case scenario that would sideline Severino until Opening Day 2021 at the earliest.  Back in 2016 (and on the updated list in 2017), MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum created a model for predicting what pitchers are the largest risks for TJ surgeries, with Severino ranking as having a better-than-average chance at a future procedure in both rankings.

It was a little over one year ago that Severino signed a four-year, $40MM extension that has yet to yield any return for the Yankees.  The deal covered Severino’s four arbitration-eligible years (and, via a club option for 2023, the first of his free-agent seasons) so the Yankees gained some cost certainty with the extension, though it did boost the right-hander’s luxury tax number over the course of the next four seasons.  While a $10MM average annual value is small potatoes for a big-market team like New York, every extra dollar is impactful for Competitive Balance Tax purposes, considering the Yankees were over the luxury tax threshold in 2019 and are currently projected to soar well over the highest luxury tax penalty threshold of $248MM in 2020.

With James Paxton already out of action until at least May, the Yankees’ rotation would take a further hit if Severino is required to miss any time.  Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ are the projected top three in the rotation, with a group that consists of Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Michael King, and Jonathan Loaisiga now potentially battling for two rotation spots, rather than just the fifth starter’s role in Paxton’s absence.

Quick Hits: Mikolas, K. Seager, Judge, D-backs

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Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas will begin the season on the injured list after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As of now, it appears Mikolas will make his 2020 debut toward the end of April or in the beginning of May, according to Goold. It’s a blow to the Cardinals’ rotation, which got back-to-back quality seasons from Mikolas in 2018-19 and now has to fill a couple openings behind Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson. Carlos Martinez and Kwang-hyun Kim were already known to be in the running before Mikolas went down, and now Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, Ryan Helsley, Alex Reyes, John Gant and Genesis Cabrera are also in the mix, Goold writes.

Here’s more from around the game…

  • Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager was the subject of trade rumors over the winter, when “a handful of teams” discussed him with the M’s, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes. Seager has stayed put to this point, and he’s now the longest-tenured player on Seattle’s roster, though he realizes a deal could still come together. The 32-year-old admitted to Divish that a trade remains “a definite possibility.” Seager enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2019, but he’s still owed $37MM over the next two years. His contract also includes a 2022 $15MM club option that will turn into a player option if he’s dealt, which could help stand in the way of a trade.
  • Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has been battling a right shoulder issue early in camp, but he’s progressing in his recovery, George A. King III of the New York Post relays. Judge told manager Aaron Bone he’s “game-ready,” but the Yankees are taking it slow with their prized slugger, whom injuries limited to a combined 214 of a possible 324 regular-season games from 2018-19. “Start reintroducing him to full swinging and stuff in the next couple of days I would think,’’ Boone said. “I am sure in the next day or two it will probably start to ramp him back up.’’
  • Thanks to a productive 2019 season at the Double-A level, Diamondbacks first base prospect Pavin Smith has a chance to make his major league debut sometime this year, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic observes. Smith was the seventh overall pick of the Diamondbacks in 2017, and while he hit well in low-A ball that year, he provided little to no power (zero home runs, .097 ISO). He then didn’t produce at a particularly impressive clip at the high-A level the next season, but Smith turned it around last year. In his Double-A debut, he put up a .291/.370/.466 line with 12 homers and almost as many walks (59) and strikeouts (61).

MLBTR Poll: Yankees’ Third Base Situation

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A year ago at this time, Miguel Andujar was the clear-cut favorite to open the season at third base for the Yankees. Had it not been for an out-of-this-world two-way showing from the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani in 2018, Andujar would have entered the season fresh off AL Rookie of the Year honors. Andujar fell short to Ohtani, though, and then endured a year to forget in the second season of his career.

Shoulder problems limited Andujar to just 12 games in 2019, but the Yankees had no trouble carrying on without him, evidenced by their 103-59 record and their first AL East title since 2012. One reason the Yankees finally regained control of the division? Gio Urshela, who grabbed the reins at third base as a result of Andujar’s health woes and became one of the injury-riddled Yankees’ most valuable players. It was a shocking rise for Urshela, who had never been known for his offense in prior major league stints with the Indians (2015, 2017) and Blue Jays (2018).

Before last year, Urshela had not hit more than 15 home runs in a professional season, yet he managed to mash 21 in the majors in 2019. That career-high HR total helped Urshela to an outstanding .314/.355/.534 line with 3.1 fWAR and a personal-best hard-hit rate in 476 plate appearances.

Urshela’s track record of success isn’t long, but the World Series hopeful Yankees are believers. General manager Brian Cashman has made it known that Urshela’s the front-runner to open the upcoming campaign at the hot corner for New York. So, despite his impressive performance as a rookie, Andujar’s behind on the Yankees’ depth chart. They’re even giving the soon-to-be 25-year-old work at first base and in the outfield early this spring in an effort to keep his bat in the lineup, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Andujar may be hard-pressed to struggle more at first or in the outfield than he has at third, where he accounted for minus-25 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-16 Ultimate Zone Rating in his first season. But make no mistake, Andujar can hit. In his first season in the majors, he piled up 606 trips to the plate and batted .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits (47 doubles, 27 homers, two triples).

Considering his offensive upside, Andujar may well return to his past role as the Yankees’ primary third baseman sometime this year. Urshela, 28, will have to relinquish the job first, though. Which of the two do you think will log more time at the hot corner for the Yankees in 2020?

(Poll link for app users)

Who will get more playing time at third base in 2020?
Gio Urshela 68.23% (8,353 votes)
Miguel Andujar 31.77% (3,890 votes)
Total Votes: 12,243

DJ LeMahieu, Yankees Haven’t Yet Discussed Extension

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7:30pm: General manager Brian Cashman also tells Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that he has yet to engage in extension talks, though he of course wouldn’t broadcast the fact if the two sides to sit down to talk dollars and years. “[O]bviously if we did start any negotiations with anyone at any time absent of free agency, we would always try and keep them private, to the degree that is ever possible,” said the GM.

Davidoff also spoke to manager Aaron Boone about LeMahieu’s fit with the club, and the skipper unsurprisingly sounded like someone who’d be on board with LeMahieu continuing to don pinstripes for the foreseeable future: “[T]here’s just something a little bit different that he brings to the room that I think guys are drawn to. Even though he’s not the most vocal guy, I think guys look up to him and enjoy him.”

As Davidoff points out, any new contract for LeMahieu wouldn’t impact the Yankees’ luxury line, so long as it is structured as a new deal beginning in the 2021 season.

9:20am: Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu says he hasn’t yet held any talks with the club about a new contract, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports on Twitter. He also reiterated his affinity for the organization after one golden campaign.

LeMahieu’s contract situation isn’t necessarily a hot topic in Yanks’ camp, but it is fair to wonder whether he’ll ultimately be approached about an extension. The free agent deal he signed last January covered two seasons, meaning DJLM is presently slated to return to the open market next winter.

The Yankees have already made out like bandits on this signing. LeMahieu racked up a .327/.375/.518 batting line with a career-high 26 home runs in 655 plate appearances last year, easily topping expectations. He placed fourth in the American League MVP vote. Suffice to say, LeMahieu earned the entirety of his contract and then some in the first year.

Whether LeMahieu can repeat anything approaching that output is an open question. He did have one other high-grade offensive campaign under his belt, 2016 with the Rockies, but has otherwise typically checked in with below-average overall numbers with the bat.

LeMahieu is already 31 years of age, so it’s not as if he’s an exceptionally youthful player. But his history of high-contact hitting presents a decent floor with the bat even if his power recedes. And LeMahieu is an excellent infield defender who can move around as needed.

So, will the Yanks ride out the deal and hope it keeps paying off? Or will they double down on their initial faith, which was proven wise the first time around? The team could go in either direction, but it’s certainly not difficult to imagine the Yankees deciding to pursue talks. If anything, it’s a bit of a surprise that they haven’t yet kicked off a conversation.

Yankees Sign Chad Bettis

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FEBRUARY 16: The Yankees have announced the signing of Bettis to a minor-league deal.

FEBRUARY 15: Former Rockies pitcher Chad Bettis is among those who have been invited to Yankees’ camp this spring, according to multiple reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Once finalized, it will be a minor-league deal for Bettis, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). He would stand to make $1.5MM if he makes the active roster, with an additional $2MM available in performance bonuses, Sherman adds.

Bettis carved out a few solid seasons as a back-of-the-rotation arm in Colorado, most notably from 2015-16. Over that stretch, he tossed 301 innings with a 4.57 ERA and 4.11 FIP, decent production for a pitcher calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, a series of health scares knocked Bettis off course and he hasn’t managed to replicate that past production.

He was diagnosed with testicular cancer in December 2016, although he made an inspiring return to the mound that August. A blister on his pitching hand and a left hip impingement sent Bettis back to the injured list each of the past two seasons. When he did manage to take the mound, Bettis’ results had waned. In 2019, his first year in a full-time relief role, he mustered just a 6.08 ERA, causing Colorado to cut him loose after the season.

There was little word on interest in Bettis thereafter, although he says he’s feeling better physically than he has since beating cancer. He could be starting or relief depth for a Yankee club that bolsters quite a few talented arms in both the rotation and the bullpen.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/13/20

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A couple minor moves, both of which come courtesy of Roster Roundup:

  • The Yankees signed right-hander Kevin Gadea to a minor league contract earlier this week. The 25-year-old Gadea pitched at the low levels of the minors with the Mariners from 2013-16, during which he recorded a 2.64 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 225 1/3 innings. The Rays then took Gadea in the Rule 5 Draft in advance of the 2017 season, but he hasn’t pitched competitively since then because of elbow issues. After a long layoff, he’ll try to get his pro career back on track with a new organization.
  • The Dodgers have added righty Kieran Lovegrove on a minors pact. The flamethrower from South Africa was a third-round pick of the Indians in 2012 who has since spent time with the Orioles and Giants. Lovegrove and the Giants had high hopes for one another when the team signed him in November 2018, but the union didn’t yield positive results. He ended up enduring a difficult season between the Giants’ Double-A club and the O’s High-A affiliate, thanks largely to control problems. Lovegrove posted ERAs in the 9.00 range with those clubs and combined for 24 walks (with 18 strikeouts) in just 26 innings.

Latest On Yankees’ Rotation

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The Yankees’ rotation looked set when the month of February started, but the back surgery left-hander James Paxton recently underwent threw a wrench in their plans. They’re now lacking an obvious answer after Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. The team will give plenty of hurlers chances to emerge as its No. 5 during spring training, though, as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays.

General manager Brian Cashman on Wednesday named five pitchers – Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael King and Jordan Montgomery – as candidates to take the last spot in New York’s rotation. The leader may be the 27-year-old Montgomery, who had an impressive rookie campaign in 2017 but hasn’t been much of a factor since then because of injury troubles. Montgomery underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2018 after throwing a mere 27 1/3 innings that year, though he did make a late-season return to a major league mound in 2019. Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Montgomery’s now “in a good place” with respect to his health.

As for Montgomery’s competition, Cessa and Loaisiga have each garnered a decent amount of experience at the game’s highest level. Cessa’s heater checks in around 95 mph, but it hasn’t led to great results in the majors. He’s the owner of a 4.50 ERA/4.98 FIP with 7.37 K/9 and 2.91 BB/9 in 232 career innings. Most of his work (67 of 86 appearances) has come as a reliever. Cessa is out of minor league options, so he could end up in another organization if he doesn’t make the Yankees this spring.

Loaisiga can throw even harder than Cessa (96-97 mph), and he’s a former top-100 prospect, but his MLB production hasn’t been special, either. While Loaisiga recorded a tremendous strikeout rate of 11.18 per nine in his first 56 1/3 innings as a Yankee from 2018-19, he walked almost five per nine and only registered a 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP. Moreover, the right-hander dealt with shoulder problems last season.

Neither Garcia nor King has appeared in the majors yet, but there’s plenty of promise in the two cases. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked the 20-year-old Garcia as the game’s 42nd-best prospect Wednesday, calling the 5-foot-10, 163-pounder  “a diminutive firecracker righty with a beautiful curveball.” However, because of his size, there are questions about Garcia’s durability. He also didn’t put up great numbers last year as an extremely young Triple-A pitcher, as he managed a subpar 5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP with 10.13 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 over 40 innings at the level.

King, 24, racked up a combined 62 2/3 innings in Triple-A from 2018-19, pitching to a sterling 2.30 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in that span. He even made a one-appearance MLB debut last season, and currently ranks as the Yankees’ 19th-best prospect at MLB.com.

Considering how volatile the back end of most teams’ rotations are, it’s entirely possible (maybe even likely) that more than one of the above hurlers will start games for the Yankees as they await Paxton’s return. The World Series hopefuls figure to get Paxton back early in the summer, so those who wind up filling his spot could be on borrowed time in that role.

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