Quick Hits: Free Agents, Pompey, Yankees
Here’s some news from around baseball as we wrap up the first weekend of 2016…
- “So many teams have spent their money on pitching that they don’t have much left for hitting,” an executive tells John Perrotto of TodaysKnuckleball.com in explaining why so many of the biggest free agent bats are still available. This could mean that some of the notable names may end up for signing than less than expected due to lack of a hot market. Then again, the inverse could also be true — an unexpected trade or injury could suddenly create a suitor willing to pay top dollar to fill a lineup need. Perrotto’s piece also includes his guesses about where 10 of the top remaining free agents will land.
- The Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Orioles and White Sox seem to be the teams most poised to make a big move or two in January, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince writes.
- Dalton Pompey is an important depth piece for the Blue Jays in 2016 and a big part of their future outfield plans, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes as part of a reader mailbag. Given Ben Revere‘s rising arbitration price tag and the fact that Jose Bautista is a free agent next winter, Pompey may be called upon as a regular in 2017, so Chisholm doubts the Jays would make Pompey a trade chip unless they’re able to obtain a big return. While Pompey hasn’t shown much in limited MLB action, he’s also just 23 and a year removed from being a consensus top-50 (or better) prospect.
- Also from Chisholm’s piece, he lists the 11 member of the Blue Jays‘ 40-man roster who are out of options, with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera, catcher A.J. Jimenez, and righty relievers Steve Delabar and Chad Jenkins standing out as “ones to watch” on the roster bubble. The Jays would ideally like to use Jimenez in Triple-A while Carrera, Delabar and Jenkins will be in the mix for jobs on the Opening Day roster.
- In another reader mailbag, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch addresses the idea of whether or not the Yankees could retain the likes of Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira or Carlos Beltran on one-year contracts after their expensive multi-year deals expire within the next two seasons. Hoch feels it’s probably a longshot for any of them to remain in New York since the team wants a younger team and more roster flexibility — Greg Bird and Aaron Judge are poised to replace Teixeira and Beltran, for instance. Sabathia may be the best candidate to be retained given how expensive pitching is, though that also may be unlikely given Sabathia’s ongoing knee issues.
East Notes: Mets, Yankees, Orioles
Jon Heyman has left his post at CBS Sports, Awful Announcing’s Joe Lucia writes, noting that Heyman’s gig at MLB Network will not be affected. He also contributes to WFAN in New York. Heyman, who has broken news about innumerable MLB trades and signings, has been one of MLBTR’s most-cited reporters in the past several years, and his tweets and columns have been invaluable to us. We at MLBTR wish him the best of luck in whatever endeavors await him. Here are a couple quick notes from the East divisions.
- The Yankees and Mets should consider a trade in which the Mets get Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner, while the Yankees get Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero and Alejandro De Aza, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. It would be highly unusual for the Mets to deal De Aza just after signing him, and under MLB rules, he would have to provide his consent. Beyond that, it’s a proposal that’s at least interesting — the Mets could pair Miller with Jeurys Familia to strengthen their bullpen, and Gardner would provide a good, versatile outfield option. Wheeler, meanwhile, is highly talented but perhaps somewhat expendable, given that he’ll be out until June while recovery from Tommy John surgery and is only controllable for four more seasons, and that the Mets are loaded with young pitching. The Yankees would be taking on a fair amount of risk in trading two proven players for two pitchers who missed most or all of the 2015 season. Still, Wheeler and Montero would give the Yankees’ pitching staff an infusion of youth and upside. Of course, as Harper notes, the Mets might fear the possibility of Wheeler blossoming into an ace on the other side of town.
- The Orioles can’t afford to wait much longer for Chris Davis as they attempt to set their roster for 2016, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes. “Everybody knows” that the Orioles would still give Davis the $150MM deal they initially offered, even though they technically rescinded it. In the meantime, though, it’s unlikely the Orioles would extend another large offer to a different free agent until they know whether Davis is coming back. In the meantime, the Orioles have acquired Mark Trumbo partially as a way of guarding themselves against the possibility Davis signs elsewhere.
Cafardo On Free Agency, Miller, Melancon, Parra
Here are a few highlights from the latest column by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:
- Cafardo begins with a discussion of why many of the top available hitters on the free agent market haven’t signed yet (a question we also discussed a bit today). Cafardo quotes Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who argues that part of the problem might be a reluctance to spend big given the spotty history of “mega-deals” for hitters. Cafardo notes, however, that there are a number of teams with holes, and that the likes of Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes Chris Davis and Alex Gordon are ultimately likely to get their “mega-deals” from someone.
- The Yankees have been asking for a top young starter in return for Andrew Miller. Teams haven’t been willing to meet that price, so it seems likely the Yankees will keep him. (Yankees exec Brian Cashman has already said he intends to keep Miller.)
- Another top reliever who might be staying put is Mark Melancon, Cafardo writes. The Pirates have made Melancon (who will be paid handsomely in his last year before free agency eligibility) available, but thus far he’s still with the Bucs.
- From a statistical perspective, Gerardo Parra‘s defense has taken enormous steps backward in the past two years — UZR, for example, had him at +31.1 runs in 2013 and -18.1 runs last season, while Defensive Runs Saved had him dropping from 41 runs to -10 over that period. But scouts aren’t convinced those numbers represent a real change in his abilities, Cafardo writes. “He’s still one of the best defensive outfielders in the game,” says an AL scout. “He takes very good routes to balls, and as a pitcher or manager, you feel comfortable with him out there.” The Rockies and Royals seem like possibilities for Parra.
Yankees Notes: Chapman, Miller, Betances
The latest from the Bronx:
- The Yankees bullpen probably won’t be any better in 2016, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs opines. The Yankees now have the most fearsome trio of relievers of any team in baseball with Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances, but Sullivan can’t fathom the ’16 bullpen actually besting the 2015 bullpen. The Yankees were 66-3 when leading after six, and 73-2 when leading after seven innings, and there’s not much room to grow from there. Still, the Yankees were projected to regress a bit in the bullpen area, so the Chapman acquisition made plenty of sense.
- The Bombers head into 2016 with plenty of work to do, as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com writes. The Yankees may look to address their starting pitching as none of their starters topped 170 innings in 2015. Still, they have plenty of names to work with as Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Bryan Mitchell are already in-house. It appears that outfielder Brett Gardner and left-handed closer Andrew Miller could be available if the Yankees get an offer they can’t refuse, but that has not come along yet.
- The Yankees’ bullpen trio could make history, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes. No team has ever featured three relievers who recorded at least 100 strikeouts in a season and only six teams have ever had two pitchers reach the 100 K mark. Cassavell stacked the three Yankees hurlers up against the 2014 Royals bullpen trio and also compared them to some reliever groups from the past.
Heyman On Cespedes, Parra, Davis
There could be more great star free agents still available as we head into the New Year than ever before, in the estimation of CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman. The question now is – where will they land? Here’s the latest from Heyman:
- Angels owner Arte Moreno has indicated that he’s not going to make a major free agent splash between now and Opening Day, but Heyman hears that the Halos have been in contact with Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton and perhaps Alex Gordon as well. It’s not clear how serious they are about signing one of the three, however.
- Gerardo Parra is said to have “seven or eight” teams in on him and the Rockies are in “serious” pursuit. Colorado has been considering trades involving Carlos Gonzalez and their other outfielders, so a Parra signing could be a part of a serious outfield overhaul for them. Parra slashed .291/.328/.452 in 2015 and he boasts a strong reputation as a defensive outfielder, though his fielding statistics took a big step backward last season. The Royals are also known to have interest.
- When asked about free agent slugger Chris Davis, one person connected to the Astros said the player is “not in our plans.” Davis would be a strong fit for Houston, in theory, but he is out of their price range. The 29-year-old Davis is the top power bat on the open market, as he has led the Majors in homers over the past three seasons.
- When approached, the Yankees asked the Astros for Lance McCullers Jr. in exchange for Andrew Miller, and Houston quickly rebuffed that attempt. The Yankees are seeking a No. 1 pitcher in order to part with Miller, so it seems unlikely that he’ll go anywhere.
- Word is that new Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman is unlikely to serve a lengthy suspension for his alleged domestic violence incident. Heyman reasons that the Bombers wouldn’t have made the deal if they felt that Chapman was in store for a long ban.
- The Padres still need a shortstop but one person with Padres connections wondered whether an investment of “$60MM to $70MM” (his estimate) made sense for them given that they are not expected to contend this year. However, Heyman notes that president Mike Dee and GM A.J. Preller are aggressive and they might not want to pass up on the chance to ink a player like Desmond at a sensible number. Heyman also IDs the Rockies and White Sox as dark horse teams for Desmond.
- The Cardinals were another club that downplayed the possibility of a major move, but GM John Mozeliak went out and signed Mike Leake after publicly stating that he wasn’t going to make any “dynamic” moves. Could they have another significant move in store? Heyman has heard buzz that the Cards may also be looking again at a big bat at first or in the outfield.
- When asked about the possibility of Cespedes, one Nationals-connected person said, “Probably not, at least not at the moment.” That doesn’t make a signing likely by any means, but it also doesn’t rule out a pursuit.
- There are still “about six to seven teams involved” when it comes to Cespedes, Heyman writes.
- The Dodgers are still looking around after signing Scott Kazmir, so they are not out on Japanese star Kenta Maeda. The Yankees, meanwhile, can be crossed off the list as they are not interested. Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better.
- Marlins president president David Samson contends that owner Jeffrey Loria still has “no interest” in selling the club.
NL Notes: Dews, Nationals, Desmond, Baez, Reds
The Braves organization suffered a difficult loss over the weekend, as long-time coach, advisor, and instructor Bobby Dews passed away at 76 years of age. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman explains how deeply embedded he was in the team’s fabric, even as he spent less time around the ballclub in recent years. We join all those around the league in tipping our cap to Dews and offering our condolences to his family and friends.
A few notes from the National League …
- Following the Nationals‘ reported agreement with Stephen Drew on a one-year deal, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post breaks down what the club’s bench could look like. As Janes notes, the addition of Drew will give first-year Nationals manager Dusty Baker four left-handed bats on the bench (Jose Lobaton, Clint Robinson and Matt den Dekker being the others, as things stand). His versatility, as well as the versatility of fellow newcomer Daniel Murphy (who can also handle third base, first base and, in a pinch, left field) gives Baker plenty of options to mix and match. A significant addition may or may not be coming, Janes writes, noting that the pursuit of top free agents such as Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist at least indicates that the club has money to spend. However, even if the team doesn’t land an additional center field option, the much-needed addition of some left-handed options in recent weeks has brightened the 2016 outlook.
- Former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond has long been rumored to be dabbling in the idea of signing as a Zobrist-esque super-utility player, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants could be a fit for him in such a role. Desmond could be the regular left fielder, even see time in center, and function as a reserve or injury replacement in the infield, Olney reasons.
- Speaking of converting infielders to the outfield grass, Cubs youngster Javier Baez has seen time in center field in the Puerto Rican winter league, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat noted recently. It doesn’t seem that the organization is looking to press him into regular duty there, at least at present, but would at least like to have the option of deploying him in the outfield on occasion.
- The Reds‘ two Rule 5 picks have a solid chance of sticking with the club, C. Trent Rosecrans writes for Baseball America. Outfielder Jake Cave (from the Yankees) makes for a good fit because he hits from the left side, assistant GM Nick Krall tells Rosecrans. And Krall adds that southpaw Chris O’Grady (via the Angels) has shown an ability to retire batters on both sides of the box, with good command helping to make up for average stuff.
NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Howard, Chapman, Murphy, Kazmir, Span
The attorneys for first basemen Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and Ryan Howard of the Phillies have sent letters to Al Jazeera demanding that the news agency publicly retract its report suggesting that the two players have used banned PEDs, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports. The spark for the demand appears to have been a correction to the article accompanying the documentary at the Al Jazeera web site, in which editors noted: “An earlier version of this article reported on an allegation about possible links between Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard and human growth hormone. The substance alleged was Delta 2, not HGH.”
MLBTR has obtained a copy of the demand for retraction, which states: “Tuesday, Al Jazeera tried sneaking out a correction which acknowledges major errors in their story about our clients Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard. The original defamatory ‘report’ connected our clients to the use of HGH, but Al Jazeera has now admitted this defamatory accusation was wholly false and unsubstantiated. Al Jazeera’s acknowledgment confirms their unforgivable sloppiness and the recklessness of its publication of this false story. Al Jazeera must retract the remaining false allegations against our clients immediately.” As Svrluga notes, such a demand letter can be a prerequisite to bringing suit for defamation in some jurisdictions.
Here are some notes from around the NL East:
- The Marlins tried to acquire ace closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds before he was shipped off to the Yankees, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. But Miami was obviously unwilling to beat the offer put forth by New York. Still, it’s interesting to learn of the effort. Despite dabbling in some rather significant potential transactions, the Fish have yet to pull off any major moves this winter.
- Daniel Murphy turned down a four-year offer because he preferred the Nationals‘ chances at contention, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. It’s not clear, of course, precisely what difference in the overall dollar amounts would have been involved.
- Signing Murphy and Stephen Drew — to go with the flurry of bullpen additions earlier this winter — doesn’t necessarily wrap up the Nationals‘ offseason business, of course. Wagner explains that the team is still considering changes in the pitching department. The team “has interest” in free agent lefty Scott Kazmir, per the report. Washington could consider looking for a good market opportunity, says Wagner, but the team would likely deal another starter (he suggests Gio Gonzalez) to address another need if a rotation piece is added. And, of course, the club is still listening and considering its options at the back of the bullpen.
- The Nationals have also long been said to be pursuing an addition in the outfield, particularly one capable of spending time in center. I ran through some of the many options back in November, and Wagner takes an updated look in the above-linked piece. As he explains, though, none of the obviously available options makes for a perfect fit. It’s no surprise to hear that the team is “working” to add such a piece after the Murphy signing, as Jon Morosi of FOX Sports recently tweeted.
- Having already added a center field-capable player of their own in Alejandro De Aza, the Mets won’t be present when Denard Span works out for teams, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. That is not terribly surprising to learn at this point, of course. It’s worth noting, also, that Wagner’s report includes a note that, while the Nationals haven’t ruled out a return, there is some internal concern over Span’s health.
Scott Boras On Free Agency, Davis, Span, CBA
Earlier today, super agent Scott Boras joined MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM to discuss the state of the free agent market. Here are a few highlights:
- While there are a variety of notable names still available in free agency Boras suggests that isn’t any cause for concern for those players. As he put it: “in free agency, I’m not sure you can put a calendar on it.” Boras went on to note that, of the $1.6B or so in free agent spending thus far, about $1.2B has gone to pitching. If you’re interested in more details on the current market setting, we broke down the spending to date and the outlook for still-unsigned players in a post yesterday.
- While he attributed the big starting pitching salaries this year to a natural reflection of last year’s Max Scherzer contract, Boras says there has been a “definite advance in the relief market.” He attributes that observation to a copycat phenomenon as teams seek to emulate the success of the Royals.
- As for his own clients that still remain on the market, Boras called slugger Chris Davis a “rare opportunity.” That’s due in large part to his undeniable power, but also — per Boras — because he can hit opposing lefties and provides more defensive versatility than one might think. Interestingly, Boras also noted that several American League East clubs (the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees) are presently reliant on aging power sources that will hit free agency or retirement in the near future — hinting that those teams should be considering Davis not only for his immediate impact but also future organizational need.
- Boras also discussed center fielder Denard Span, who he says is recovering nicely from hip surgery. Some teams have already “been down to see him,” said the agent. He adds that he expects Span to find a deal “in the very near future.”
- While there were other topics of conversation as well, Boras also fielded an interesting question regarding what issues his clients see as having primary importance in the coming year’s CBA negotiations. Boras focused in on the qualifying offer system and limitations on draft spending, which he tied together by citing the obvious value that teams place on top selections.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Aroldis Chapman Trade
Earlier today, the Yankees made a drastic move to upgrade the bullpen, acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a four-player package including third baseman Eric Jagielo, right-hander Rookie Davis, right-hander Caleb Cotham and second baseman Tony Renda. Given the domestic abuse allegations surrounding Chapman and the Yankees’ newfound bulk of elite relievers, there are no shortage of reactions to to this move. Here are some of the early reaction pieces and ripple effects from the trade…
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to the media shortly after the trade was announced and said his “intent” is to hang onto Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, using both in conjunction with Chapman at the back of the bullpen (via ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews). Wallace notes that Cashman could eventually change course and move Miller, perhaps in a trade for a controllable starter (while also shedding some payroll), though Cashman himself gave no indication of such a scenario playing out. The YES Network’s Jack Curry, in fact, tweets that Cashman said he called Miller shortly after the news broke and said he intends to keep all three relievers.
- As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes, Cashman said the Yankees did as much due diligence as possible in looking into Chapman’s legal troubles and the possible suspension he faces from commissioner Rob Manfred under MLB’s new domestic violence policy. Cashman somewhat delicately noted that the asking price on Chapman has been “modified” in light of the allegations — that is to say, it has dropped significantly — which led the Yankees to make the acquisition. Said Cashman: “Certainly there are some serious issues here that are in play. I think it’s certainly reflected in some of the acquisition price. There’s risk, and I understand that. … We’ve done as much due diligence on the subject at hand as we possibly can, and we’ve completed the transaction based on a lot of that due diligence.”
- Just how much has the price dropped? Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Reds wanted Aaron Judge and one of Luis Severino or Gary Sanchez at the trade deadline. Sherman also looks atáthe reasons for the Yankees’ pursuit of Chapman in spite of the allegations, noting that the trade creates a potentially historic bullpen trio, helps to protect a fragile rotation, preserves the Yankees’ top prospects and changes the narrative that the team is not spending this offseason in an effort to win now. (Although, the trade certainly creates the opportunity to launch a far less flattering narrative.) Owner Hal Steinbrenner offered the following comment when asked by Sherman: “I approved the trade after significant thought and research, as I do with any significant trade.”
- Within his piece, Sherman notes that a suspension is most likely forthcoming for Chapman, but it will probably be “more in the 10-25 game range” than the 40-plus games that would cost Chapman his shot at free agency next winter. (Chapman currently has five years, 34 days of MLB service, meaning that if he misses 46 days of the regular season, he’d fall shy of six years of service and miss out on free agency eligibility.)
- The Yankees have built a laughably good bullpen on paper, writes Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan, who notes that the Steamer projection system now forecasts that the Yankees will have far and away the game’s best bullpen in terms of wins above replacement. However, he also notes that the upgrade might not be quite as drastic as some would think, because while Chapman comes with quite a bit of name value, the actual difference between him and lefty Justin Wilson, who departed in a trade after an excellent season, isn’t as stark as many might expect.
- ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider subscription required) that the Reds “must have wanted to get rid” of Chapman, because the package they received isn’t exactly inspiring. Law calls the package “all quantity but little quality,” noting that Davis has the chance to be an average MLB starter (roughly a No. 4 starter, he specifies) and Cotham can pitch in the bullpen right now. Jagielo will hit for some power but can’t play third base, in Law’s estimation, and has plenty of injury issues. The Reds didn’t get enough for a player of Chapman’s caliber, Law opines, but he also feels that the Yankees are sending the wrong message by acquiring a player with Chapman’s allegations hanging over his head.
- The Reds aren’t done trading after this move, president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty told reporters, including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Jocketty said that the Reds will make more moves “if we can,” and he wouldn’t close the door on potentially trading Brandon Phillips even after the veteran invoked his no-trade clause to block a move to the Nationals earlier this month. (Jocketty did note that it’s likely Phillips will be with the team in 2016, though, adding that he hasn’t spoken to him since the failed Nationals trade.) The trade highlights Jocketty’s desire to add players that are reasonably close to the Major Leagues, Rosecrans writes, as each has already seen action at the Double-A level or higher. “That’s what I’m looking for. I want guys that can help us the next year or two,” said Jocketty. “I told our guys when we were researching different clubs that it’s nice to have guys who are long-range prospects, but we need guys in the next couple of years and that’s why we’re looking more for Double-A and Triple-A guys.” Cotham will probably pitch for the Reds in 2016, Jocketty said, and Jagielo, too, could be with the team next season, even if he has to do so in a bench capacity initially.
- The Yankees are, in some ways, emulating the model that the Royals rode to a championship, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. The team now boasts a three-headed bullpen monster that rivals Kansas City’s trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, and they’re also prioritizing young, up-the-middle players that can improve their defense (notably, he points out recent acquisitions of Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius). The Yankees differ from Kansas City in the sense that their powerhouse bullpen was constructed largely via financial muscle, but the parallels, at least, are there in some regards.
- Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com have updated the list of the Reds’ Top 30 prospects to include both Davis and Jagielo, who rank eighth and ninth, respectively, among Cincinnati farmhands in their eyes.
Yankees Acquire Aroldis Chapman
After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.
Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, but he comes with significant off-field baggage in the form of domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and there’s a very real chance that he’ll serve some form of suspension from commissioner Rob Manfred under the league’s newly implemented domestic violence policy. What type of suspension is up to Manfred, though as many have pointed out, there are service time implications in any suspension that could impact Chapman’s free agency; if Chapman misses more than 45 days of the regular season due to suspension, he’ll fall shy of reaching six years of Major League service, which would prevent him from becoming a free agent next winter. A suspension would also lessen the financial commitment for Chapman in 2016; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz currently projects the lefty to earn $12.9MM in 2016 after earning $8.05MM in 2015.
Strictly looking at Chapman’s on-field resumé, the results are astounding. In 2015, he worked to a 1.63 ERA with 15.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate. Over the past four seasons in Cincinnati, the Cuban-born phenom has delivered an exceptional 1.90 ERA while averaging 16.1 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings to go along with an average of 36 saves per season. Chapman is known for his blistering fastball; the left-hander averaged 100.3 mph on his heater in 2014 and followed that up with a similarly incredulous 99.5 mph average this past season. His addition could free the Yankees to trade Miller or Betances, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the team’s initial plan is to keep all three in an effort to effectively shorten games to six-inning affairs (Twitter link). That’s a bit hyperbolic in nature, of course, but probably not as much as skeptics might think; as MLB.com’s Andrew Simon points out (on Twitter), the Yankees now possess the pitchers with the three highest strikeout percentages in all of baseball from 2014-15 in Chapman (46.3 percent), Miller (41.6 percent) and Betances (39.5 percent).
That trio will be important for a Yankees team that is rife with uncertainty in the rotation. The club’s starting five currently projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia. (Ivan Nova could be in the mix as well, though he is reportedly being shopped.) Tanaka pitched through a small tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in 2015, while Pineda has a long history of shoulder issues and Sabathia struggled through knee injuries before ending the season in rehab for alcohol abuse. Even Severino, who was dominant in his rookie showing, has never thrown more than last season’s 161 2/3 innings in a single season. The ability to shorten games with an elite bullpen triumvirate would lessen the expectations placed on what looks to be a potentially shaky rotation.
The Reds will be adding two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo and Davis) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America (Cotham, Renda; hat tip to BA’s John Manuel, on Twitter). BA considers Davis the best of the bunch, having recently ranked him sixth in the Yankees’ farm system. MLB.com, meanwhile, has Jagielo sixth and Davis rated 10th.
Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.
As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.
The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter. The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well, and last offseason Fangraphs’ scouting report praised his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.
Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.
Ultimately, the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer, it would seem. While the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. It’s easy to speak now with the benefit of hindsight, but the reported offer of Braden Shipley plus a pair of other Top 10 prospects from the Diamondbacks in July does appear to be a stronger package than the one received by Cincinnati today. However, with the reason for Cincinnati’s reduced leverage in trade talks being entirely out of the team’s control, it’s not fair to simply state that they should have taken that deal. Jose Peraza, after all, was said to be heading to the Reds from the Dodgers as part of the trade package with L.A. before Chapman’s off-field issues derailed those discussions.
For the Reds, who have also traded Todd Frazier this winter (in a trade that was met with lukewarm reviews, at best, for Cincinnati’s return), the Chapman trade seems unlikely to spell the end of their offseason rebuilding efforts. Cincinnati has also attempted to move second baseman Brandon Phillips, though he reportedly elected not to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to the Nationals. Right fielder Jay Bruce is also no stranger to trade rumors, either, and could see his name circulate on the rumor mill with increased frequency as the Reds seek to stockpile more young talent.
Baseball America’s Josh Norris first reported that the two teams were nearing a trade (Twitter link). Jack Curry of the YES Network reported that a trade involving Chapman was close (Twitter link) and later tweeted that four minor leaguers were going to Cincinnati. Norris reported Davis’ inclusion in the deal (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the agreement as in place.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.