AL West Notes: Mariners Coaches, Ibanez, Angels, Astros
The Mariners announced today that Angels special assistant Tim Bogar has been hired as the bench coach to serve under newly minted manager Scott Servais (as Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reported would happen last week). Seattle also announced that Mel Stottlemyre Jr. has been named the club’s new pitching coach. Edgar Martinez will return as the team’s hitting coach, and Chris Woodward will once again handle first base coach duties in Seattle. That leaves openings at third base coach and bullpen coach, and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets that two names under consideration are Padres bench coach Dave Roberts and former big league catcher Dan Wilson, who has been Seattle’s minor league catching coordinator for the past three seasons.
A bit more from the AL West…
- Dutton also tweets that the Mariners have spoken to Raul Ibanez about either a front office role or a position on the coaching staff. Ibanez, of course, played for the Mariners from 1996-2000 and then again from 2004-08 before returning for one final stint in 2013. He’s also familiar with GM Jerry Dipoto, though, as Dipoto signed Ibanez to a low-risk one-year deal for the 2014 season. That move didn’t work out, however, as Ibanez was unable to recreate the production he showed in his final season with the Mariners when he blasted 29 homers as a 41-year-old.
- Angels GM Billy Eppler acknowledged that the hires of Servais, Bogar and Matt Klentak, who was announced as the new Phillies GM this morning, has taken a toll on the front office, writes MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “That’s no doubt going to be felt throughout a number of departments,” said Eppler. Per Gonzalez, Eppler is keeping an open mind and talking to a wide variety of candidates for the club’s coaching staff and front office. Among those who are possibilities to fill the role of assistant GM to Eppler are Hal Morris and Kevin Reese. Morris is presently the Angels’ director of pro scouting, while Reese holds that same title with Eppler’s former organization, the Yankees.
- Within his column, Gonzalez notes that Rangers pitching coach is soliciting offers from other clubs and could be a candidate to fill the Angels’ vacancy at that post. As was reported recently, Maddux’s contract expires at the end of this month. He’s been invited back by Texas but appears to be testing the waters to see what sort of interest other clubs may have.
- The Astros‘ payroll will likely increase in 2016, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, though that will be in large part due to arbitration raises for Dallas Keuchel, Jason Castro, Evan Gattis and Chris Carter. The Astros will try to add another starting pitcher to what was a top-heavy rotation in 2015, he adds. McTaggart also notes that Carter’s tremendous late-season surge complicates the team’s decision on whether not he should be tendered a contract, though it may also have helped to create a trade market for Carter’s services.
AL East Notes: Greinke, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays
Zack Greinke would fit the bill for the Red Sox this winter, but Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald wonders if Boston would be the best place for him. One source close to the pitcher speculated that Greinke “definitely wouldn’t want any more stress or additional media attention,” though that was only his assumption and not something he heard directly from the former Cy Young Award winner. One can’t help but speculate if Greinke, who has been diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and clinical depression, may prefer to pitch in a market with less pressure than Boston.
Here’s more out of the AL East..
- Tim Naehring has been “one of Brian Cashman’s most trusted advisors on players the Yankees look to trade for or sign as free agents,” George A. King III of the New York Post writes. In fact, King adds that the sight of Naehring at a game often leads outsiders to conclude that the Bombers have interest in at least one of the players on the field. On Saturday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Naehring would fill the vacancy left by former assistant GM Billy Eppler, though he will not take on that title.
- All of the deadline deals made by Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos ended up working out, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com writes. David Price proved to be the frontline starter the Blue Jays needed, Mark Lowe gave Toronto a boost in the bullpen, Ben Revere solved the team’s defensive woes in left field, and Troy Tulowitzki gave the club another dangerous bat when healthy.
- The Blue Jays could solve their rotation puzzle by plugging Roberto Osuna or Aaron Sanchez into the starting five, but they’d be better served to try and re-sign Price and Marco Estrada, Chisholm writes. Still, a reunion won’t come cheap, especially when it comes to Price. Earlier today, one AL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he could see Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”
Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches. It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.
“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”
Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.
Here’s more from today’s column..
- The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities. Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
- The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal. Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked. Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
- Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.” Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal. Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto. The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
- One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM. In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
- Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards. One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness. At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
- One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.” Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock. The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
- Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch. The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period. The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
- At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill‘s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real. One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
- Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters. Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer. The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached. In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.
Front Office Notes: Amaro, Benedict, Naehring
UPDATE: Amaro is one of a small group of finalists for the position, tweets Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. However, a final decision has not been reached according to his sources.
Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro seems to have found a new job — he’ll serve as the Red Sox‘ first base coach, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tweets. This is somewhat surprising news. Amaro played for eight years as an outfielder in the big leagues, but he’s never served as a coach, and the path from GM to first base coach is seldom traveled. (Amaro did briefly play with current Red Sox manager John Farrell on the 1995 Indians, which might partially explain why he’s now turning up on the Red Sox’ staff.) Amaro became an assistant GM for the Phillies right after his playing career ended, then advanced to become GM before being fired last month. His father, Ruben Amaro Sr., was once a first base coach with the Phillies. Here are a couple additional notes on front offices.
- The loss of special assistant Jim Benedict to the Marlins is a significant one for the Pirates, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Benedict has been a key part of the Pirates’ very successful pitching program, and his ability to blend old-school scouting and new-school tools is rare. The Bucs’ ability to cheaply acquire struggling pitchers like Francisco Liriano, J.A. Happ and Edinson Volquez and help them improve has been key to the team’s recent success, and it remains to be seen how losing Benedict will affect them. Sawchik also notes that Benedict will take on an expanded role with the Marlins, helping with the draft and with evaluations of potential acquisitions as well as working with pitchers already in the organization.
- With former assistant GM Billy Eppler taking over as GM of the Angels, the Yankees have promoted Tim Naehring to take over his role, although not his title, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. (Cafardo first tweeted that Naehring would receive a significant promotion.) Naehring had previously been a scout with the Yankees.
AL Notes: Loup, Rays Stadium, Greene, Ackley
As the Blue Jays battle to stay alive in the ALCS, they’ll finally be able to turn to lefty Aaron Loup if the need arises. He’s been sporadically absent over the post-season, creating challenges for the team’s pen, but it turns out that much more important matters have arisen. His wife went into labor much earlier than expected, giving birth to a premature baby boy on Wednesday, as Jays play-by-play man Mike Wilner tweeted earlier this evening. Fortunately, Loup’s son is in stable condition. MLBTR extends its congratulations and very best wishes to Loup’s young family.
Here are some notes from the American League:
- There was some important news yesterday regarding the Rays‘ efforts to land a new stadium, as Charlie Frago and Tony Marrero of the Tampa Bay Times reported. After long and tough negotiations, the St. Petersburg City Council approved a deal to let the club seek new stadium sites in surrounding counties. Tampa Bay would still be required to pay significant break-up fees to get out of its lease at Tropicana Field, with some saying the cost will be too high for the Rays to participate, so the path to keeping the team in the area remains to be cleared.
- The Tigers face some tough questions with righty Shane Greene, who was an important trade acquisition last winter. As Chris Iott of MLive.com writes, the team expects to give him a shot to earn a spot with the club, but it’s not yet clear whether he’ll make the rotation. Greene had surgery on his shoulder, though it was for an “arterial issue” rather than some structural concern, and is set to be ready for the spring. But it was his rough season before that which leads to concern over his long-term outlook. “I can tell you right now that [Greene] is a starting pitcher,” said GM Al Avila. “But we feel that he can also go into the bullpen if we needed him to or because we think it’s the best thing for him and organization.” Something of the opposite is true of Alex Wilson, who Avila says will remain in the pen despite a history of starting in the minors.
- Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog takes a close look at the Yankees‘ options with Dustin Ackley, writing that the deadline acquisition could take the bulk of the time at second base — being spelled frequently or occasionally against left-handed pitching — or end up in more of a super-utility role. Jennings also discusses the idea of replacing Ackley with a better version of himself — presumably, Ben Zobrist — while also utilizing youngsters Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela more heavily.
AL East Notes: Gardner, Orioles, Red Sox, Moore
In his latest Yankees Inbox column, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tackles a number of topics, perhaps most notably the possibility of a Brett Gardner trade this winter. Hoch notes that a deal is at least possible, as it might be one of the only ways in which the Yankees can creatively gain some flexibility this winter. With Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran locked into the other two outfield spots and Alex Rodriguez blocking Beltran from DH at-bats, there’s little room to make changes on the roster. While Hoch says that “initial indications” are that it won’t be a big-spending winter for the Yankees, moving Gardner could give the team both roster and financial flexibility. Within his column, Hoch also touches on the 2016 plans for Greg Bird and notes that the Yankees aren’t simply going to hand the second base job to Rob Refsnyder in 2016 as they feel he’s still developing from a defensive standpoint.
More from the AL East…
- Orioles fans will want to check out this column from MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, as he covers a number of players on the fringes of Baltimore’s 40-man roster and their future with the organization, including Dylan Bundy, Steve Johnson, Nolan Reimold, Steve Clevenger and Jimmy Paredes. Bundy will compete for a spot in the 2016 bullpen, but he’ll be out of options, complicating his future. Johnson drew interest from the Phillies and Mariners last year before re-signing a minor league deal with Baltimore. He could draw trade interest this offseason, Kubatko notes. The Orioles are expected to keep Reimold this offseason, and Clevenger’s defensive improvements have satisfied O’s decision-makers, though he could still be marketed in trades this offseason. Kubatko notes that the O’s had the chance to deal Clevenger at the July trade deadline — he lists the Mariners as an interested party — but hung onto him. Paredes’s future is less certain after a dismal second half, Kubatko writes (in much further detail than I’ve covered here).
- One rival executive tells Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that he expects Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to “blow up the farm system” (as Mastrodonato terms it) and make trades to acquire the front-line pitching Boston desperately needs. “Dave is going to make some moves. He’ll be busy,” the exec told Mastrodonato. Dombrowski said he’s already begun receiving phone calls from other general managers to begin expressing interest in working out deals, Mastrodonato adds.
- In a second article, Mastrodonato talks to Royals GM Dayton Moore about the interview he had to become the Red Sox general manager one year prior to taking his current post with Kansas City. Moore, who previously oversaw the Braves’ scouting and player development operations, said he actually didn’t have interest in becoming a GM but took the interview after his own boss with the Braves, then-GM John Schuerholz, told him to go through the process. “You’ll learn a ton,” Schuerholz told Moore. Moore was staying at the same hotel as Sox president Larry Lucchino and chairman Tom Werner at the time, so he went through the interview process and found it enjoyable. “That was the first time I started thinking about wanting to become a GM.”
New York Notes: Murphy, Cespedes, Tanaka, Wheeler
While some have said the Mets to be undecided on whether or not they’ll make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that following a Herculean postseason performance, the Mets are now planning on offering the one-year, $15.8MM sum to their second baseman. Murphy homered in his fifth straight postseason game last night, tying an MLB record, and he figures to have a nice shot at a four-year deal on the open market with or without the offer. The Mets, of course, will receive a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere after rejecting the qualifying offer. With Dilson Herrera and Wilmer Flores both in the organization, it still seems unlikely that they’ll make a serious push to re-sign Murphy at full market value. (Mets fans may also be interested in the intro to Heyman’s column, where he breaks down the roster and examines how each member was acquired by either former GM Omar Minaya or present GM Sandy Alderson.)
A few more notes from the Big Apple…
- From that same piece, Heyman writes that the early belief is that the Yankees won’t be making a run at free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes this offseason. That’s not exactly a surprise considering their full outfield — Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran are all under contracts in 2016 — though the possibility that the team could move the final year of Beltran’s contract and pursue outfield upgrades has been kicked around by pundits already. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the possibility of moving an outfielder in his Yankees Offseason Outlook.
- Masahiro Tanaka underwent elbow surgery to remove a bone spur yesterday, and GM Brian Cashman told reporters that the timing of the operation is ideal, as Tanaka’s total rehab process will take about three months (Twitter link via Tyler Kepner of the New York Times). That timeline should give the Yankees‘ ace ample time to recover prior to Spring Training of 2016.
- Another injured New York hurler, the Mets‘ Zack Wheeler, is hoping to be ready to return to the big league rotation early next June, he said in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). A returning Wheeler would, theoretically, join Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and/or Jon Niese in an outstanding rotation. Of course, injuries or trades could alter that outlook in the next eight to nine months. Wheeler himself was already said to be involved in trade talks for both Carlos Gomez and Jay Bruce in July.
Masahiro Tanaka Has Bone Spur Removed
Yankees righty Masahiro Tanaka underwent a procedure today to have a bone spur removed from his right elbow. The spur was present before Tanaka joined the Yankees in advance of the 2014 season, the team said.
Importantly, it appears that there has been no change in the status of Tanaka’s right ulnar collateral ligament. Tanaka has been pitching through a partially torn UCL for some time now, but still has yet to require Tommy John surgery.
New York says in its announcement that the Japanese hurler will require “six weeks of exercise and strengthening, followed by a throwing program.” The club expects that he’ll be recovered in time for spring training.
Tanaka, who’ll soon turn 27, was not as dominating in 2015 as he was the year prior. Though he ended up showing a slight velocity increase, his strikeouts per nine dropped (from 9.3 K/9 to 8.1 K/9) and he struggled to limit the long ball (1.46 HR/9 and 16.9% HR/FB).
The Yankees will surely hope that this ends Tanaka’s elbow difficulties, at least temporarily. He’s a key piece of the team’s immediate and long-term outlook, with $111MM left on his contract through 2020 (unless he exercises an opt-out after the 2017 campaign).
AL East Notes: Chen, Britton, Murphy, Blue Jays
While many are anticipating that the Orioles will have difficulty in retaining their free agents, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com cautions against simply dismissing the possibility that Baltimore can find a way to retain some combination of Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day. Of the four, Kubatko considers Chen the least likely to return, but he notes that the O’s had an organizational meeting last Friday which included managing partner Peter Angelos. One source later termed the meeting “productive” when speaking to Kubatko. The MASN scribe also hears from a source that Angelos wants to not only re-sign Chen but also is showing a willingness to add a free agent starter beyond the longtime Baltimore lefty. Of course, Kubatko also points out the possibility that Chen’s demotion to Class-A ball this season — a more or less procedural move that bought the Orioles some time to sort out a roster crunch — strained the relationship between player and team.
From my own vantage point, history hasn’t shown that the Orioles would be willing to spend at the necessary levels to sign Chen. A four-year deal is almost certainly there for him this winter, and he has a case for a fifth season at an annual rate in excess of the $12.5MM on Ubaldo Jimenez‘s four-year deal with Baltimore. As Kubtako notes, Baltimore “shocked” many in the industry with that Jimenez contract; either a five-year deal or a significantly larger four-year pact for Chen strikes me as unlikely.
A few more items pertaining to the AL East…
- Kubatko’s colleague, Steve Melewski, writes that fans who feel the Orioles should try Zach Britton back in the rotation are misguided. Britton would be unable to jump from about 70 innings per season to the 175 to 200 necessary out of the rotation, and more importantly, he’d almost certainly be less effective in the rotation. Moving to a starting role would make it more difficult for Britton to hold his velocity, and hitters would benefit from second and third looks at his incredible sinker. He’d also need to throw more secondary pitches than he presently does, and the move would further weaken a bullpen that will already be an area of need for Baltimore this winter.
- Daniel Murphy signing with the Yankees is an unlikely scenario but can’t be completely ruled out, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Second base is the Yankees’ most uncertain position on the diamond at present, and while many believe Rob Refsnyder will get a long look next year, Murphy’s swing fits Yankee Stadium well. The Yankees are in the midst of their pro scouting meetings and beginning to plot a course for the offseason, so Murphy’s name figures to at least be mentioned. Feinsand spoke to a pair of sources that estimated Murphy can land a deal similar to Chase Headley‘s four-year, $52MM contract on the heels of a big postseason performance.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks back on the trade that sent R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. While there were other pieces in the trade, the core of the trade — Dickey for Syndergaard/d’Arnaud — looks excellent for the Mets, in hindsight. Sherman spoke with Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who explained the the team had a win-now approach back in that 2012 offseason, with the goal of maximizing the prime years of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Both d’Arnaud and Syndergaard were years from contributing, and Toronto felt it could get four years of control of a win-now pitcher to help its near-term playoff hopes. The Jays also talked to the Rays about James Shields and had interest in free agent Anibal Sanchez at the time, but Tampa Bay didn’t want to move Shields within the division and Sanchez preferred Detroit to Toronto, Sherman adds.
Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
The Yankees could have a bit of room to add another big contract this winter, though a greater need may be finding young depth to bolster its veteran core.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Masahiro Tanaka, SP: $111MM through 2020 (Tanaka can opt out after 2017)
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $105.714MM through 2020 ($21MM club option for 2021 with $5MM buyout)
- Brian McCann, C: $51MM through 2018 ($15MM club option for 2019, can vest to become player option)
- Alex Rodriguez, DH: $40MM through 2017
- Chase Headley, 3B: $39MM through 2018
- Brett Gardner, OF: $36MM through 2018 ($12.5MM club option for 2019, $2MM buyout)
- Andrew Miller, RP: $27MM through 2018
- C.C. Sabathia, SP: $25MM through 2016 ($25MM vesting option for 2017, $5MM buyout otherwise)
- Mark Teixeira, 1B: $22.5MM through 2016
- Carlos Beltran, OF: $15MM through 2016
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Sergio Santos (5.110) – $900K projected salary
- Andrew Bailey (5.034) – $900K arbitration projection (has $2MM club option).
- Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
- Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
- Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
- Nathan Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
- Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
- Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Santos
Contract Options
- Brendan Ryan, IF: $2MM club option/$1MM player option for 2016
- Andrew Bailey, RP: $2MM club option
Free Agents
In many ways, 2015 was a successful year for the Yankees. They returned to the postseason (albeit for just one game, losing to the Astros in a wild card matchup), got some solid contributions from building-block younger players and received several bounce-back seasons from their expensive veterans. While anything short of a World Series championship is generally considered a disappointment in New York, the Yankees at least made some positive strides.
The trick for GM Brian Cashman, however, is figuring out how exactly to add major upgrades to a roster that has over $180MM committed to just 10 players. There’s a light at the end of the guaranteed-salary since at least $37.5MM (Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran) will be freed up after 2016, plus Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia (a combined $45MM) will be off the books after 2017. The Yankees don’t seem likely to go on another free agent spending spree, but with some financial relief in sight, it doesn’t seem out of the question for them to make one or two major free agent signings on backloaded contracts. It may make more sense for New York to strike in free agency now rather than next winter, when the projected open market doesn’t look nearly as deep in talent, particularly in frontline pitching.
Starting pitching indeed stands out as an area of focus, and free agent righty Jeff Samardzija has already been cited as a Yankee target this offseason. Samardzija would cost less than pursuing one of the top-tier arms in this winter’s free agent pitching market, though the lower price tag is due to Samardzija’s lackluster 2015 season. He posted a 4.96 ERA over 214 innings with the White Sox, and while ERA predictors were a bit more kind to his performance (Chicago’s bad defense certainly played a role), Samardzija also suffered drops in his strikeout and grounder rates. It should be noted, though, that the Yankees weren’t interested in signing free agents that required draft pick forfeiture, and Samardzija reportedly will receive and reject a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the White Sox.
Acquiring a new starter would require the Yankees to bump a current rotation member. The 2016 rotation projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda and Sabathia, with Ivan Nova and Adam Warren on hand as depth. Sabathia recently entered an alcohol rehabilitation program, adding a far more pressing personal concern to his 2016 status beyond just his knee injuries and declining performance. Sabathia has only made one relief appearance in his 15-year career (during the 2011 playoffs) and he still ate 167 1/3 innings last season, yet as strange as it would be to see him coming out of the bullpen, he’s the most logical candidate to leave the rotation. Tanaka and Severino obviously aren’t going anywhere, and trading promising young starters like Eovaldi and Pineda (whose ERA indicators show he drastically outperformed his 4.37 ERA) would be an odd move for a club that claims to want to get younger.
It’s hard to see where a major new salary could be fit around the diamond since that’s where most of the Yankees’ payroll commitments can be found. Aside from shortstop Didi Gregorius and the unsettled second base situation, every other position is filled by a veteran with an eight-figure salary, the youngest of whom (Chase Headley) is entering his age-32 season. The Yankees enjoyed several bounce-back seasons from many of these older stars in 2015 but even those came with some caveats; Teixeira missed the last six weeks with a shin fracture and Rodriguez hit only .191/.300/.377 in 213 PA after Aug. 1.
Combine those with down years from Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and a team-wide lackluster defense (24th in team UZR/150, 27th in team Defensive Runs Saved), and you have to question if the Yankees can realistically expect to catch lightning in a bottle again and contend with this aging lineup. Manager Joe Girardi was already pretty liberal with off-days for many of his veterans last year, and the same can probably be expected in 2016 now that the manager has a few more young reinforcements to be called upon.
Greg Bird and John Ryan Murphy lead the way in this regard, as the rookie first baseman and third-year backup catcher both had strong seasons, particularly Bird stepping in to deliver big numbers after Teixeira was lost to the DL. There has been some speculation that Bird could be tried out at third base or right field so he could get regular time spelling Teixeira, Headley and Beltran, though it remains to be see how Bird could adjust to playing two new positions for the first time in his pro career. Murphy could also see some time at first base, though it’s probably more likely that he could get more time behind the plate spelling Brian McCann (who would either rest on those days or play first himself). More at-bats for Murphy would also get a right-handed bat into the lineup on a more regular basis, which would help a Yankees offense that struggled badly against southpaws.
Chris Young was a valuable weapon against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .972 OPS in 175 PA against southpaws en route to an overall very solid .252/.320/.453 slash line and 14 homers in 356 PA. Young and his new representation will be looking for a multi-year contract and a job that offers more regular playing time, though I’d expect the Yankees will explore keeping a lefty-masher who can play both corner outfield spots and handle the occasional fill-in game or two in center. If Young signs elsewhere, the Bombers will be in the market for another versatile backup outfielder.
Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela were the two young second base candidates rumored to be in for long looks in 2015, though Stephen Drew ended up seeing most of the at-bats at the keystone. It’s unlikely that Drew returns in the wake of his rough season, so the Yankees could go with a platoon of left-handed hitting Dustin Ackley and either Refsnyder or Pirela (both righty batters) at second next season. Ideally, the Yankees would probably prefer to have Refsnyder or Pirela win the job outright in Spring Training as Ackley has only played in 10 games at second over the last two years.
Could New York look for a more permanent answer at second base? Names like Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist stand out as the most promising options on the free agent market. Murphy and Zobrist, in particular, could fill depth needs as Murphy can also play third and Zobrist can play short and left. Neither are defensive standouts, though, as Zobrist’s usually-solid defensive metrics took a plunge in 2015; signing Zobrist in particular would mean the Yankees would commit another big contract to another mid-30’s player.
Signing an everyday second baseman would allow the Yankees to package Refsnyder as part of a trade, as he could be a young talent the club would be willing to part with if rumors of attitude issues are true (Cashman has denied these rumors, for the record). The Yankees have become much more wary about trading top prospects for established stars over the last few years, so you’re more apt to see the likes of Aaron Judge, Eric Jagielo or Jacob Lindgren in the pinstripes next season than another Major League uniform.
The bullpen was rebuilt last winter with good results, as Yankees relievers led the league in K/9 (10.11) and ranked third in fWAR (5.2). Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson should again be a very tough late-game trio for opponents to overcome, and if another starter is acquired, adding Warren or Nova as a full-time reliever would further strengthen the pen. Warren and Nova could also be trade chips; Nova’s stock isn’t high after a tough 2015 campaign, but it was his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
While the relief corps was already a strength, the Yankees also explored adding elite bullpen arms like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman at the trade deadline. If the Yankees make another attempt at creating a super-bullpen, perhaps they could offer Major League pieces rather than prospects. This is entirely speculation on my part, but maybe the Padres be interested in adding a needed left-handed bat and outfield defense in the form of Gardner (plus a prospect or two) for Kimbrel.
Since Ellsbury may be untradeable at this point due to his big contract and disappointing season, moving Gardner or Beltran would open up a corner outfield spot. This could open the door for a big signing, and Mike Axisa of the River Ave. Blues blog recently opined that Jason Heyward would be an ideal fit, even without the Yankees making room by trading someone else. Heyward would play every day and then Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran would be rotated (or, Beltran would DH on days that A-Rod sits), which would be a uniquely big-market way of solving a fourth outfielder problem if Young doesn’t re-sign. The juggling of playing time would only be an issue for 2016 since Beltran’s contract is up next winter, or it might not end up being an issue at all if someone gets injured, as Axisa notes.
Heyward is only 26, is one of the game’s elite defensive outfielders, and he’ll command the kind of massive long-term contract that only the Yankees and a handful of other big-market teams can afford. He’s also a player that New York targeted last offseason in trade talks when Heyward was still with the Braves, so the interest is there. The Yankees, as usual, will be linked in rumors to just about every notable free agent name, though in Heyward’s case, there could be some legitimate substance to the whispers. Adding Heyward would bring both youth and elite talent to the Bombers in one fell swoop.
On the surface, Cashman doesn’t appear to have a ton of maneuverability given that his club is still a year away from finally starting to shed some of its major salary commitments. Last winter, however, Cashman was very active on the trade market and came away with such important pieces as Gregorius, Eovaldi and Wilson. If he can expand on that creativity and manage to unload one of his big contracts, it could unlock several new offseason possibilities.