2024-25 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition
We’re around the halfway point of the 2024 season. Trade season is still a couple weeks from getting fully underway. It’s an opportune time to refresh our ranking of the upcoming free agent class.
This is the second of at least three installments we’ll do over the course of the season. Steve Adams handled our initial write-up of the top 10 players back in mid-April. This is our attempt to capture a player’s earning power, so age is big factor. This is not strictly a list of the best players in the class, though talent is obviously the starting point. There’s no change in the top two spots, but the past few months have shuffled the next tiers.
Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. I worked with Steve and Darragh McDonald — with input from MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes — for this installment. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are eligible for the list. Stats are up to date through June 26.
1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees
No surprise here. Soto has been the crown jewel for years and is likely to go wire-to-wire as the top impending free agent. He continues to build what looks like a future Hall of Fame résumé. Soto has been an elite hitter from the moment he debuted as a 19-year-old with the Nationals. That carried over upon his first blockbuster trade to the Padres and hasn’t changed in the Big Apple.
Soto is on pace for what might be the best season of his career. He’s hitting .303/.434/.567 across 357 plate appearances. As measured by wRC+, that offense is 85 percentage points better than league average and would be a personal high over a 162-game schedule. Soto has more walks than strikeouts for a fifth straight season. He already has 19 homers, giving him a chance to exceed last year’s career-high 35 longballs.
Not only is Soto one of the top three hitters in baseball, he’s firmly in his prime. He’ll play all of next season at 26, making him three to four years younger than a typical free agent. A signing team can realistically expect Soto to remain a top-flight hitter for the first seven to 10 years of a megadeal. While the calling card is obviously the bat, Soto has turned in decent defensive marks in the Bronx. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have credited him as a slightly above-average right fielder this season.
Soto turned down a reported $440MM extension offer from the Nats a few years ago — a decision that increasingly looks like it’ll pay off handsomely. Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has spoken of a willingness to negotiate an extension during the season, but it’d be downright shocking if Soto doesn’t test the market at this point. (The outfielder himself suggested as much on Tuesday.) The Yankees will certainly make a run at keeping him, while teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Giants, etc. figure to be involved.
Soto will be three years younger than Shohei Ohtani was during his free agency. Soto isn’t likely to accept a deal with the kind of deferrals that Ohtani took, but he should handily beat the approximate $461MM net present value of the Ohtani contract. He should top half a billion dollars and it wouldn’t at all be surprising if his camp at the Boras Corporation were aiming for something close to $600MM at the start of the winter.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles
Burnes has been the top pitcher in the class for some time. He broke out with a 2.11 ERA during the shortened 2020 season and backed that up with an MLB-best 2.43 ERA with 234 strikeouts over 28 starts to claim the NL Cy Young the following year. Burnes punched out an NL-leading 243 hitters the following season before turning in a 3.39 earned run average during his final season in Milwaukee.
The Brewers traded the three-time All-Star to Baltimore in advance of his final year of arbitration. While Milwaukee has gotten good work out of rookie infielder Joey Ortiz (and acquired hard-throwing lefty DL Hall), the O’s can’t have any regrets with how the trade has played out. Burnes owns a 2.35 ERA across 99 2/3 innings. He’s on his way to a fifth straight top-10 Cy Young finish and should be a candidate to win the award for a second time.
Unlike with Soto, one can at least find a yellow flag on Burnes’ stat sheet. His swing-and-miss rate has dropped over the last year and a half. Burnes struck out more than 30% of batters faced in each season from 2020-22. Among pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch, only Carlos Rodón had a higher strikeout percentage than Burnes’ 33.4% mark. That dipped to 25.5% a year ago and currently sits at 23.9%, his lowest rate since his 2018 rookie campaign. He’s getting fewer whiffs on both his cutter and curveball than he did back in 2021-22.
Teams will at least take note of the drop-off in whiffs, but it’s not likely to have too detrimental an effect on Burnes’ market. His 95 MPH cutter velocity is still as strong as ever. The bottom-line results are among the best in the league. Burnes has pristine command and is very difficult for opponents to square up even as they’re getting a few more balls in play. While every pitcher comes with some level of health risk, Burnes’ only injured list stint in the last three and a half years came as a result of a positive Covid test.
Burnes will play all of next season at age 30. Aaron Nola landed seven years and $172MM last offseason going into his age-31 campaign. Burnes is a better pitcher. He should be able to find an eight-year deal that also runs through his age-37 season, and there’s a chance he gets to nine years. While Burnes will probably come up shy of the nine-year, $324MM deal which Gerrit Cole landed a few years ago, he shouldn’t have much issue surpassing the $200MM mark and could beat $250MM.
3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Adames is the biggest riser from the previous iteration of this list. We had him eighth in the class two months ago. Adames has since pulled away as the clear top shortstop and quite arguably the best infielder. The Brewers shortstop has rebounded from a pedestrian offensive season and is on pace for the best year of his career.
Over 353 plate appearances, the Dominican-born infielder owns a .238/.331/.423 slash line. He has 13 home runs and is drawing walks at a personal-high 12.2% clip. Most importantly, Adames is striking out 21% of the time. That’s trending as easily the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Whiffs have been the biggest question for the righty-hitting infielder. If he’s striking out at a league average pace, there aren’t many weaknesses to his game.
Adames has reached 20 home runs in all four full schedules he’s played. Barring injury, he’ll surpass that again and quite likely end in his customary 25-30 homer range. While Milwaukee’s American Family Field boosts power numbers, Adames has solid exit velocities and gets a lot of balls in the air. He has a decent approach and has incrementally improved his contact rate, particularly on pitches within the strike zone.
Even if Adames is more of a good hitter than an elite one, he’s a major asset on the other side of the ball. DRS and Statcast have graded him as one of the sport’s best infielders over the last six seasons. DRS has been bizarrely down on his defense this season, yet Statcast has had no such qualms. Most teams will view him as a plus or better defender, at least for the next few years. Adames turns 29 in September and should remain a sure-handed infielder with a good arm into his early-mid 30s.
On top of the well-rounded production, Adames has drawn rave reviews from teammates and coaches in both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee for his clubhouse acumen. It’s the kind of leadership and intangibles that teams love from a franchise shortstop. Players like Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Dansby Swanson all landed six- or seven-year deals between $140MM and $177MM with a broadly similar profile. None of those contracts have worked out quite as the signing team hoped — the Story and Báez deals have been unmitigated disasters — which could give teams pause. Yet those examples show the value teams place on a plus defensive shortstop with enough power to hit in the middle to upper third of a batting order.
4. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Bregman’s platform year started rather inauspiciously. He hit .219/.280/.372 through the end of May, a stretch that briefly relegated him as far as sixth in the Houston batting order. Bregman was not only doing his market no favors, he was a major contributor to the Astros’ terrible start to the season.
Fortunes have changed in June for team and player alike. Bregman owns a .341/.404/.494 line through 94 plate appearances this month. His overall season slash is still fairly pedestrian, weighed down by his early-season swoon. He’s rounding into form though, and he remains one of the best hitters (non-Soto division) in the class.
Bregman has been an above-average hitter in all nine seasons of his career. His 41-homer season from 2019 looks like a clear outlier at least partially attributable to the juiced ball. Bregman has gone from an MVP candidate to “merely” a very good everyday third baseman. Over the past five seasons, he carries a .260/.355/.437 batting line — a wRC+ that checks in 23 percentage points better than league average.
Some teams could take issue with Bregman’s batted-ball profile. He has never had massive raw power that translates into eye-popping exit velocities. His game has been built around pristine strike zone feel and an innate ability to pull the ball in the air, thereby maximizing the power he does possess. This year’s 35.9% hard contact rate is below average. Bregman’s walk rate has also fallen sharply as he’s gotten a little more aggressive and pitchers have attacked him in the strike zone with higher frequency.
Bregman could wind up being something of a divisive free agent. The batted-ball data and drop in walks could strike some clubs as a harbinger of decline. Bregman’s camp will point to his preternatural contact skills, solid third base defense, excellent durability, and status as one of the faces of a team that has gotten to the ALCS in seven straight seasons. Bregman turns 31 around Opening Day and still has a shot at a six- or seven-year deal that could push into the $150MM range (or further, if he can continue his blistering June pace).
5. Max Fried, SP, Braves
A former seventh overall pick, Fried has been a top-of-the-rotation arm for most of his time in Atlanta. He turned in a 4.02 ERA in his first full season back in 2019. The southpaw hasn’t allowed more than 3.04 earned runs per nine in any of the five seasons since then. Fried got off to a rocky start this year, surrendering 11 runs in five innings over his first two outings. Set those aside, and he’s looked better than ever. Over his last 13 starts, he carries a 2.12 ERA while averaging 6.53 innings per game and holding opponents to a .191/.255/.254 batting line.
The way Fried succeeds is somewhat unconventional. He doesn’t miss bats at the level typically associated with an ace. Fried has punched out 23.8% of his opponents in his career and carries a 22.3% strikeout rate this season. That’s solid but not overwhelming. He excels behind plus command and elite contact management. Fried is routinely near the top of the league in limiting opponents’ exit velocities. He has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 50% and is racking up grounders at a huge 60.6% clip this season.
Fried isn’t a peak Dallas Keuchel or Kyle Hendricks type who thrived despite middling velocity. He throws sufficiently hard, averaging nearly 94 MPH on his four-seam and sinker. His mid-70s curveball isn’t a power breaking pitch, but it generates so much movement that hitters have never been able to square it up. Statcast credits him with seven distinct offerings. He leans most heavily on the four-seam, curve, sinker and changeup.
Some teams could shy away from paying top-of-the-market money to a pitcher who doesn’t have elite whiff rates. Others could have some concern about Fried’s arm health. He lost three months of the 2023 season to a forearm strain. (He also has a Tommy John surgery on his résumé, although that came back in 2015 when he was a prospect.) While Fried has looked no worse for wear, that adds a little extra risk for an investment beginning in his age-31 season.
Fried’s camp will probably view the Nola and Rodón (six years, $162MM) deals as comparison points. Fried is a Southern California native, which has led some to speculate he could prefer to sign with a team on the west coast, though he hasn’t publicly tipped his hand on any geographical preferences. He and the Braves have kicked around extension terms a few times over the years without coming to an agreement.
6. Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers
Fried’s high school teammate is the first player on this top-10 who didn’t crack the list in April. He was one of a number of rebound starting pitching targets in the class. Flaherty has pulled away from the group with a dominant first three months to his Detroit tenure. Through 14 starts, he carries a 2.92 earned run average. He has punched out a third of opposing hitters with a huge 14.2% swinging-strike rate.
It’s Flaherty’s best sustained stretch since the second half of the 2019 season, when he looked to be breaking out as one of the best pitchers in the game. The intervening four years were largely disappointments. Flaherty struggled to a 4.91 ERA during the shortened 2020 schedule. He lost extended chunks of the next two seasons to shoulder problems. The righty avoided the injured list last year but looked like a shell of his former self. He allowed nearly five earned runs per nine with a roughly average 22.8% strikeout rate between the Cardinals and Orioles. Baltimore used him in relief at times down the stretch.
MLBTR predicted Flaherty would land a mid-level three-year deal last offseason. Given his youth, that would’ve offered him a life-changing payday while still affording him the opportunity to return to the market ahead of his age-31 season. Instead, he bet on himself and took a straight one-year pact. That looks like it’ll pay out handsomely. A nine-figure contract could be on the table. He’ll play next season at age 29 and has a shot at five or even six years. It wouldn’t be without risk given the volatility of his career, but Flaherty arguably has a higher ceiling than any starter in the class beyond Burnes and Fried.
Like everyone else on this list, Flaherty is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. He’s likelier than any of the other top free agents to be traded this summer, which would take the QO off the table. (Players traded midseason cannot receive a qualifying offer.) The Tigers are still on the periphery of Wild Card contention but haven’t hit enough to be a bona fide contender. A deadline deal would allow Flaherty to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation.
7. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Alonso remains one of the sport’s preeminent power hitters. He has hit at least 37 homers in his four full seasons (and was on a 43-homer pace during the shortened season). He’s not quite at that level this year, connecting on 16 homers with a .465 slugging mark. That puts him at a 33-homer pace, although it wouldn’t at all be surprising if he outperforms that during the summer months.
Teams know what they’re getting with Alonso. He’s incredibly durable and has only had two minimal injured list stints as a big leaguer. He’s likely to hit 35+ homers in the middle of the lineup. The average and on-base marks are fairly pedestrian, but no one has more home runs than Alonso since he came into the league in 2019. Though his hard contact rate and average exit velocity are more ordinary than one might expect, no one questions his ability to hit for power in any stadium.
Alonso has a case as the second-best offensive player in the class. There’s not much value in the rest of the profile. He’s a below-average baserunner and a limited defender. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as an average first baseman over the course of his career; Statcast has him below average with the glove. Alonso is entering his age-30 season and will likely try to beat the Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162MM with deferrals) contracts. He might need to move to designated hitter midway through a five- or six-year pact.
The Mets have maintained they want to keep their franchise first baseman. Alonso reportedly declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer during the 2023 season. (He’s earning $20.5MM this season in his final arbitration year, so he’d “only” need to top $137.5MM to come out ahead on that decision.) That reported offer came before the Mets hired David Stearns as president of baseball operations. The sides seem content to table discussions about a long-term deal until Alonso gets a chance to field offers from other teams. He seemed like a trade candidate when the Mets were floundering early in the season. That’s harder to envision now that New York has pulled themselves back into the Wild Card race.
8. Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Padres
Kim is one of the top defensive players in the class. Public metrics have given him strong grades for his work all around the infield. The Padres liked Kim’s glove enough to fully commit to him as their shortstop this year, bumping Xander Bogaerts to the right side of the second base bag.
The offensive profile isn’t as exciting. Kim is a decent hitter whose game is built around excellent strike zone awareness and pure contact skills. Kim has walked nearly as often as he has gone down on strikes. A dismal .236 batting average on balls in play has depressed his overall output, as he’s hitting .223/.333/.385 across 328 plate appearances. While there’s surely some amount of poor fortune in that mark, Kim’s batted-ball metrics aren’t impressive. This season’s 35.5% hard contact rate, while a career high, is still a couple points below average. The South Korea native is on pace to top last year’s personal-high 17 home runs, but he’s probably never going to be a huge power threat.
After a poor first season at the MLB level, Kim was worth around four wins above replacement annually in the next two years. He’s on a similar pace in 2024. There’s probably not much more in terms of untapped upside, but Kim’s combination of contact skills, defense and baserunning (he has 53 stolen bases over the past two seasons) make him an above-average regular. He’s going into his age-29 season and could land a five-year contract in free agency.
9. Nick Pivetta, SP, Red Sox
One of the more volatile pitchers in the class, Pivetta has somewhat quietly excelled over the past calendar year. The right-hander’s performance has long lagged behind the quality of his stuff. It seemed as if he might always be too inconsistent despite flashing mid-rotation potential. As recently as last May, he looked as if he might pitch his way off the Red Sox’ roster entirely.
Things finally clicked for Pivetta after the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in mid-May last year. The former fourth-round draftee dominated in a multi-inning relief role. He continued overpowering hitters after the Sox returned him to the rotation for the final six weeks of the ’23 campaign. Pivetta has worked exclusively out of the rotation in 2024 and is still posting a gaudy strikeout and walk profile.
Over 11 starts, he owns a 4.06 earned run average. Pivetta has fanned 27.2% of batters faced against a 6.4% walk rate. He’s giving up a lofty 1.87 home runs per nine innings, leading to an unimpressive 4.42 FIP. Metrics that normalize HR/FB are far more bullish (3.43 SIERA, 3.56 xFIP). The longball has always been an issue and is a key reason he has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season in the big leagues. Yet it’s possible a team falls in love with the stuff and the strikeouts.
Dating back to last year’s initial bullpen conversion, Pivetta touts a 3.48 ERA with a huge 32.1% strikeout rate across 160 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .202/.263/.388 in 639 plate appearances. Pivetta lost around a month this season to a flexor strain in his forearm. That’s a potential concern, but there wasn’t any structural damage and he has held up since being reinstated on May 8. Outside of virus-related placements, that was Pivetta’s first injured list stint in his MLB career. If the forearm issue is in the rearview, he looks like a volume innings eater with the stuff to be a No. 3 starter. Even going into his age-32 campaign, he’s got a shot at a four-year deal if he can sustain this K-BB% and keep his ERA at a reasonable level.
10. Luis Severino, SP, Mets
Severino jumped across town after a terrible final season with the Yankees. The two-time All-Star signed with the Mets on a pillow contract that guaranteed him $13MM. The early returns are good. Severino has turned in a 3.29 ERA while averaging six innings per start through his first 15 outings. It’s a marked improvement from the 6.65 ERA that ended his time in the Bronx.
If one looked no further than the ERA, it’d be easy to conclude that Severino is back to the No. 2/No. 3 form he’d shown for most of his Yankee tenure. It’s not that simple. Severino hasn’t recaptured the swing-and-miss stuff that essentially evaporated after 2022. This year’s 19% strikeout rate is a match for his 18.9% mark a season ago. His 8.5% swinging-strike percentage is down slightly from last season and trending towards a personal low. Rather than overpowering hitters the way he once did, Severino has gotten by with dramatically better batted-ball results than he had during his final season with the Yankees.
The 30-year-old deserves some credit for that. Severino has incorporated a sinker that he’s using around a quarter of the time. While the pitch doesn’t miss bats, it has helped increase his ground-ball rate to a career-high 50.8% clip. Hitters have also had a significantly harder time squaring up his four-seam fastball than they did last season. Severino has said he believed he was tipping his pitches last year.
There’s certainly some amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit .326 on balls in play last season; that’s all the way down to .252. His rate of home runs per fly-ball has more than halved (from 20.9% to 9.4%). That’s not all luck, but it’d be too optimistic to wave away the role of batted ball variance entirely. As is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere between the past two seasons.
Severino is not likely to secure the kind of nine-figure deal that once seemed attainable unless he dramatically improves the whiff rate. Still, there’s enough to like in the profile to warrant a three- or potentially four-year contract. Players like Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM) landed four-year guarantees around $70MM with similar career arcs. They’d been former top prospects who once looked like potential top-end arms before settling in as mid-rotation types without a ton of strikeouts. Severino, who turns 31 in February, could be following that trajectory. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying offer unless the Mets trade him.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Cody Bellinger*, Matt Chapman*, Gerrit Cole *^, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernández, Clay Holmes, Danny Jansen, Max Kepler, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar, Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Christian Walker
* Denotes ineligible for a qualifying offer
^ Cole can opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract at season’s end, though if he signals his intent to do so, the Yankees can override his opt-out by tacking on a tenth year at another $36MM. Because Cole was only recently reinstated from the injured list and because the Yankees can effectively veto his opt-out, we’re not including him on this installment. If, as the season wears on, he’s pitching well enough to trigger that opt-out and there’s talk of the Yankees allowing him to walk, he could land on future iterations.
Guardians, Matthew Boyd Agree To Major League Deal
The Guardians and left-hander Matthew Boyd have agreed to a deal, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post on X. It’s a major league deal for the Boras Corporation client, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com on X. The Guardians will need to open a roster spot whenever the deal, which is pending a physical, becomes official.
Boyd, 33, has had some good results in his career but he has been on and off the mound in recent years due to various health issues. He required flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and missed most of the following season, making ten relief appearances for the Mariners in September of 2022. He made 15 starts with the Tigers last year before requiring Tommy John surgery at the end of June.
Due to those injuries and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Boyd has been limited to 223 1/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season. His results have been fairly inconsistent in that time, which is probably not surprising given the many interruptions. His earned run average is an even 5.00 in that period, with strikeout and walk rates around league average.
Prior to this recent health odyssey, he was a solid contributor at the back end of the Detroit rotation for many years. From 2016 to 2019, he logged 588 frames over 109 appearances. In that stretch, he had a 4.67 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. His best performance was arguably back in 2019, when he struck out 30.2% of batters faced and gave out walks at just a 6.3% clip over 32 starts. His 4.56 ERA that year doesn’t look especially strong, but he allowed 39 home runs during what is now known as the “juiced ball” season, so his 3.61 SIERA might be more reflective of how he performed that year.
It’s now been almost exactly a year since Boyd underwent his Tommy John procedure. He is healthy enough to get on the mound, as he threw for clubs earlier this month, but he’ll presumably need some time to fully ramp up. Though he’s signing a major league deal, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he agreed to be optioned to some minor league affiliate for a few weeks, effectively a delayed Spring Training.
The Guardians have been surprising in many ways this year. The rotation has often been a strength for the club but has been a clear weakness this year. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery earlier in the season and is done for the year. Gavin Williams has been on the IL all year so far. Tanner Bibee has been good but the rest of the group has been flimsy behind him. Each of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco have an ERA above 4.65. Ben Lively‘s ERA is down at 3.03 but with a modest 21.4% strikeout rate and fortunate strand rate of 87.3%.
Despite those rotation struggles, the club is 51-27, the best record in the American League. They will probably be on the lookout for rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline but there will be plenty of competition. There are few clear sellers at the moment thanks to some wide-open Wild Card spots and the few clubs that are clearly out of it have been getting hit hard by injuries. The Angels just lost Patrick Sandoval to season-ending surgery while the Marlins have each of Sandy Alcántara, Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Eury Pérez all on the IL. Getting a pitcher from the White Sox would likely be a challenge since they share a division with the Guardians.
Given those question marks, it’s sensible for them to take a dice roll on Boyd. Financial details of the agreement haven’t yet been reported but it’s likely a fairly modest guarantee after he’s missed so much time lately. The Guardians will have roughly a month to get a look at him and see if he can help bolster their current group. They also have Williams currently on a rehab assignment, potentially giving them two rotation reinforcements in the coming weeks. How they decide to attack the deadline a month from now will likely be determined by developments in the coming weeks.
Brewers Acquire Dallas Keuchel From Mariners
The Brewers have acquired left-hander Dallas Keuchel from the Mariners, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on X. The M’s will receive cash considerations in return, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com on X. The lefty was with the M’s on a minor league deal and not on the 40-man roster, meaning he won’t immediately need a 40-man spot with the Brewers.
Keuchel, 36, signed a minors deal with the Mariners and has made 13 Triple-A starts on the year to this point. He has allowed 3.93 earned runs per nine innings, despite pitching in the hitter-friendly environs of the Pacific Coast League. His 15.6% strikeout rate on the year is subpar but he’s always succeeded by limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground, which has been the case again this year. He has a 7.6% walk rate and 59.5% ground ball rate for the Rainiers.
That’s generally been the recipe for Keuchel in his career, as he has thrown 1625 2/3 innings with a 4.02 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 57.7% ground ball rate. At his peak, he won the 2015 American League Cy Young by posting a 2.48 ERA with the Astros, but his results have tailed off since then. He has a 6.29 ERA since the start of 2021, bouncing to the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Twins in that time.
Those lesser results of late are why he had to settle for a minor league deal and why he may not have been able to crack Seattle’s rotation. They may lose Bryan Woo to the injured list, as he departed last night’s start with some hamstring tightness. But even if Woo is bound for the IL, the Mariners have a rotation consisting of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, with Emerson Hancock and Jhonathan Díaz candidates to come up and replace Woo.
The Brewers, however, have far more motivation for taking a shot on a veteran like Keuchel. They knew coming into the season that Brandon Woodruff would have to spend the whole season on the injured list recovering from shoulder surgery, but he has since been given plenty of company on the IL. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser both required UCL surgery and are also out for the year, while guys like Joe Ross and DL Hall are on the shelf due to other issues. Jakob Junis has been reinstated from the IL but has been working in relief.
That has left Milwaukee with a fairly patchwork rotation behind Freddy Peralta. The club moved Bryse Wilson from the bullpen to a starting role and he has a passable 4.24 ERA but less impressive peripherals. Colin Rea is similar, as he’s a 33-year-old journeyman with a 3.62 ERA on the year despite a tepid 15.6% strikeout rate. Tobias Myers and Carlos Rodríguez are both in their debut seasons and have limited experience. Rodríguez has a 7.30 ERA while Myers is at 3.12, though the underlying numbers suggest that performance from Myers may not be sustainable.
It’s far easier to see Keuchel slotting into that mix than the one in Seattle, so the Mariners have pocketed some cash and let him pursue an opportunity with the Brewers. Despite the rotation challenges, the Brewers are atop the National League Central, five games clear of the Cardinals, and could use some veteran stability between now and perhaps making further moves at the trade deadline.
If Milwaukee plans to add Keuchel to their roster, they will need to make a corresponding move, though that shouldn’t be a problem. As mentioned, Gasser is out for the year but he has not yet been transferred to the 60-day IL, so that’s an easy way for the Brewers to open a spot.
Soto: Plan To Address Contract “In The Offseason”
Juan Soto will be the top free agent in the upcoming class and is trending towards the largest contract in MLB history — assuming one counts the Shohei Ohtani deal based on its approximate $461MM net present value. There has never been much doubt that the 25-year-old superstar would test the market, even after Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner left open the possibility of discussing a midseason extension last month.
Soto implied as much this evening in a conversation with Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Asked by Heyman whether he expected the Mets to be involved in the bidding, Soto replied “we will see. In the offseason we will figure it out. I’ll let [agent Scott Boras] do his thing. We’re going to see.” The three-time All-Star followed up by speaking glowingly of his time with the Yankees.
Steinbrenner’s comments aside, the Yankees presumably haven’t been all that optimistic about keeping Soto off the market. GM Brian Cashman said in February that the team fully anticipated Soto would test free agency (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). The Yankees will certainly make a significant effort to keep him in the Bronx next winter.
Soto famously declined a 14-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals before Washington traded him in 2022. The Padres similarly expressed a desire to work out a long-term arrangement in the early portion of last offseason. That obviously didn’t materialize and he was traded again. There aren’t any publicly reported specifics on contract terms that either San Diego or the Yankees have floated. Heyman said last month (X link) that Soto had declined seven extension offers within the last five years. That has long made it seem like a foregone conclusion that he and his camp would take things to free agency.
He may well do so coming off the best season of his career. Soto hit his 19th home run of the season tonight and is on pace to top last year’s personal-high 35 longballs. He carried a .305/.431/.563 slash line into today’s game. That’d be the highest slugging percentage he’s posted in a 162-game schedule. It’d be the second-best on-base mark he has managed in a full season.
Patrick Sandoval To Undergo UCL Surgery
June 25: The Angels moved Sandoval to the 60-day injured list today. Silseth was reinstated from the 60-day IL and optioned, keeping their 40-man roster at capacity.
June 24: Angels left-hander Patrick Sandoval told reporters that he has a high-grade flexor tear and a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left arm. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X. While Bollinger uses the phrase “Tommy John surgery,” Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register says on X that the exact nature of the surgery isn’t yet clear. Regardless, the lefty is done for this year and part of 2025 as well.
The news is obviously devastating, both for Sandoval personally and for the Angels as a team. As the club has struggled to find consistent quality pitching in recent years, the southpaw has been one of the few bright spots of their staff.
Since the start of 2021, Sandoval has tossed 460 innings for the club, allowing 3.80 earned runs per nine frames. He struck out 22.6% of batters faced in that time with a 10.2% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate. Unfortunately, he had to leave Friday’s start in obvious pain and was placed on the 15-day injured list with an elbow strain, and now the decision has been made that surgery is required.
Sandoval qualified for arbitration after 2022 as a Super Two player. He made $2.75MM last year and is making $5.025MM this year, with two more arbitration seasons remaining. With the Angels having a poor season and no return to contention in sight, he could have been made available at this summer’s deadline and been one of the more attractive arms on the market, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at.
Now that won’t be on the table and Sandoval is looking at a lengthy layoff. A full Tommy John surgery usually comes with a recovery timeline of 14 to 18 months, which would put his 2025 season in jeopardy. The internal brace variety can sometimes have shorter timelines, but only by a few months.
The Angels will transfer Sandoval to the 60-day injured list when they need a roster spot but he will need to be reinstated for the offseason. Assuming they tender him a contract for 2025, he won’t be able to get much of a raise on the heels of this truncated season. The club may be tempted to non-tender a pitcher that may not contribute anything next year, but pitchers in this situation often sign two-year deals to cover their recovery and return to the mound. The Angels can effectively do that just by tendering him a deal for next year and then for 2026.
It’s also another challenge for a rotation that has had plenty. Reid Detmers struggled enough this year that he was optioned down to the minors. Tyler Anderson is having a good year but is 34 years old and has one year left on his contract, making him a logical trade candidate. Griffin Canning has just one year of control beyond this year as well. Chase Silseth and José Soriano are also on the injured list. Zach Plesac has been added to the roster lately but hasn’t found much success in his first two starts. With Sandoval’s surgery, piecing together the rotation will be even harder, both this year and next year.
For Sandoval personally, he will lose the remainder of his age-27 season and a decent chunk of his age-28 season as well, putting a big dent in his earning power. He’ll turn 29 years old in October of next year.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand To Undergo Wrist Surgery
Reds infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand will have wrist surgery on July 11 and there’s a three-month recovery timeline. If that timeline holds, that means he won’t be able to return during the regular season. Manager David Bell relayed the information to reporters today, with Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer among those to pass it along. X link one and two.
It’s been a frustrating and unusual saga for Encarnacion-Strand. Back at the end of April, he was hit on the hand by a pitch and X-rays were negative but revealed a small pre-existing fracture. The infielder said he didn’t know how that came about and that he wasn’t in any discomfort prior to being hit by that pitch.
He was placed on the injured list about a week later, with the club describing his ailment as a right ulnar styloid fracture. Just over a week ago, Bell revealed that surgery was being considered and it now seems that it has been deemed necessary. Given the three-month recovery timeline, Encarnacion-Strand won’t be able to return this year unless the club makes the playoffs and survives through the middle of October. Even if that does come to pass, it will be a challenge for him to get back into game shape and earn his way onto the roster, so it seems there’s a decent chance his 2024 is effectively done.
That’s a very frustrating blow for Encarnacion-Strand and the club. A highly-touted prospect, he debuted with a splash last year by hitting 13 home runs in his first 63 major league games. He slashed .270/.328/.477 overall for a wRC+ of 112.
He was undoubtedly hoping to build off that with a healthy and productive showing in his first full season, but it hasn’t come to pass. He hit just .190/.220/.293 in his 29 games this year and that will almost certainly be his final line when the year is over. He’s already on the 60-day injured list and is now slated to stay there for the rest of the campaign.
For the team, this just adds to the number of missed opportunities by their players this year. Noelvi Marté was hit with an 80-game PED suspension and has missed the entire season thus far. Injuries have plagued Matt McLain, TJ Friedl and various pitchers on their staff, leaving the club fairly hampered all year long.
Their season is still alive thanks to the weak National League Wild Card race. The Reds are just 37-41 but that is only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot at the moment. That’s somewhat encouraging but it also leads to plenty of “what if” questions amid all the various issues the club has dealt with.
Encarnacion-Strand was the everyday first baseman prior to the landing on the injured list but that job has primarily fallen to Spencer Steer in recent months. Marté could return soon to possibly factor into the third base mix and perhaps that will lead to Jeimer Candelario moving over to first base at times. That could push Steer into a corner outfield role, where Will Benson and Jake Fraley are having underwhelming seasons.
Edwin Diaz Given 10-Game Suspension For Foreign Substance Check
June 25: Diaz will not appeal and will start serving his suspension tonight. Joel Sherman of The New York Post was among those to relay the news on X.
June 24: As expected, Diaz has received a 10-game suspension. Jon Heyman of The New York Post was among those to relay the news on X. The righty can appeal the decision but it’s not yet clear if he will.
June 23: Mets closer Edwin Diaz was ejected from tonight’s game due to an apparent use of an illegal substance on his hands. Diaz was taking the field in the bottom of the ninth to try and preserve a 5-2 New York lead, but after the standard check every pitcher receives before entering and exiting games, crew chief Vic Carapazza tossed Diaz from the game. Drew Smith and Jake Diekman combined for a scoreless inning to preserve the Mets’ victory over the Cubs.
As per league rules, Diaz now faces a mandatory 10-game suspension for use of foreign substances. He won’t be paid for those 10 games, and the Mets aren’t allowed to replace him on the roster, so the club will have to field a 25-man roster over the course of Diaz’s suspension. Diaz has the right to an appeal, so it is possible he might receive fewer than a 10-game ban, even if that scenario is rather unlikely given the seemingly apparent evidence.
Diaz is the third Mets pitcher in the last two seasons to be tossed for a game for use of an illegal substance, as both Smith and Max Scherzer received 10-game suspensions during the 2023 campaign. Similar suspensions were issued to the Astros’ Ronel Blanco earlier this season, and to Robert Suarez and Domingo German last year.
Tonight’s incident is the latest turn in an up-and-down comeback season for Diaz, who missed all of the 2023 season due to a torn patellar tendon. Diaz has a 4.70 ERA over 23 innings and 23 appearances this season, recording seven saves in 11 chances. While he looked pretty close to his past All-Star form early in the year, a few shaky outings led the Mets to move Diaz into lower-leverage situations, and he was then sidelined entirely due to a shoulder impingement.
The right-hander missed a little over three weeks due to the injury, and has looked sharp in his three outings since being activated off the 15-day IL. Diaz has tossed three scoreless innings and earned two saves and a win in those three games, while allowing two hits and no walks, and striking out three batters.
He’ll now get another unwelcome break from action while serving his suspension, leaving the Mets likely to return to the closer committee approach they used earlier this season when Diaz was both injured and out of the closer’s role. Diaz’s absence throws a wrench into the momentum of a New York that has won 13 of its last 17 teams, and gotten back into the hunt for a wild card berth.
Yankees Acquire J.D. Davis
The Yankees announced this afternoon that they’ve acquired infielder J.D. Davis and cash considerations from the A’s in exchange infielder Jordan Groshans. Davis had been designated for assignment by the A’s earlier this week. The Yankees transferred right-hander Nick Burdi to the 60-day injured list in order to make room for Davis on the 40-man roster.
Davis, 31, signed with the A’s in late spring after the Giants released Davis during Spring Training in order to get out from under most of the $6.9MM salary he had been awarded in arbitration over the winter. He managed to secure a guarantee of just $2.5MM from Oakland, a far cry from his previously-awarded arbitration salary even after factoring in the roughly $1.1MM in termination pay he received from San Francisco.
After that late spring controversy, Davis went on to appear in 39 games with the A’s where he slashed a roughly league-average .236/.304/.366 in 135 trips to the plate while splitting time between first base, third base, and DH. While his offensive numbers this year leave something to be desired, Davis’s positional versatility and track record as an above-average hitter make him a perfect fit for the Yankees’ current needs.
The club lost starting DH Giancarlo Stanton to the injured list earlier today, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo was also placed on the shelf not long ago due to a fractured forearm. Rookie Ben Rice has scuffled a bit in his first few games replacing Rizzo at first base, while the club has no obvious alternative to Stanton as an everyday DH in-house. Even at third base, where the club is currently relying on the combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu, New York has gotten a wRC+ of just 78 — this ranks second-worst of all AL third-base units, ahead of only the White Sox.
Enter Davis, who entered the 2024 season with five consecutive seasons of solid production with the Mets and Giants. Since the start of the 2019 season, Davis has slashed a solid .265/.349/.438 with a wRC+ of 118. While he’s struck out a 27.1% clip during that time, he’s walked at a healthy 10% rate while flashing 20-homer power. That sort of production would be a major upgrade for a Yankees club that has generally struggled to produce offense outside of the outfield this year even before losing Stanton for at least the short-term. Davis seems likely to slide into the everyday DH role for the Yankees while Stanton is unavailable, but could also spell Rice at first base against left-handed pitching and even contribute at third alongside LeMahieu and Cabrera.
On days where Davis is playing the infield, the Yankees could offer Aaron Judge or Juan Soto the opportunity to get a half-day of rest as a DH and improve the club’s outfield defense by inserting glove-first center fielder Trent Grisham into the mix. When Stanton eventually returns to reclaim regular DH, the Yankees could pick and choose from Davis, Rice, Cabrera, and LeMahieu based on how everyone is performingt. That being said, if Davis can even maintain his production as an Athletic in the Bronx he should be a shoe-in for at least semi-regular playing time around the Yankees infield even after Stanton’s eventual return.
In exchange for Davis’ services, the Yankees are sending Groshans to Oakland. The 24-year-old’s stint in the Yankees organization was a relatively brief one, as the club claimed him off waivers from the Marlins back in February. He was outrighted off their 40-man roster in early March and has struggled to this point in the 2024 season with a .232/.310/.281 slash line while playing all four infield spots in 50 games split between the Double- and Triple-A levels. That follows a similarly rough performance at Triple-A with Miami last year; in 528 plate appearances across 125 games in 2023, Groshans slashed a paltry .244/.339/.330 with just six home runs.
Despite Groshans’ struggles over the past two seasons, it’s not hard to see why the A’s would be willing to give the youngster a shot. After all, the infielder was the 12th overall pick in the 2018 draft by the Blue Jays and received plenty of top prospect buzz earlier in his career, including a stint as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport back in 2021. That pedigree combined with Groshans’ stronger numbers at the Double-A level earlier in his career provide some reason for optimism that he could contribute at the big league level at some point.
That possibility is surely an attractive one for an Oakland club that has struggled to find a consistent option at third base this year while cycling between Davis, Abraham Toro, and Tyler Nevin at the position. Toro will be out until at least the All-Star break recovering from a hamstring strain, leaving even more opportunity for Groshans to win some playing time at the hot corner.
Marlins Place Braxton Garrett On 15-Day Injured List With Forearm Flexor Strain
The Marlins announced several roster moves this morning, headlined by the club placing left-hander Braxton Garrett on the 15-Day injured list with a left forearm flexor strain. The club also optioned right-hander Shaun Anderson to Triple-A. Taking Garrett and Anderson’s spots on the club’s active roster will be right-hander Kyle Tyler and left-hander Kent Emanuel, both of whom had their contracts selected. Left-hander Jesus Luzardo and right-hander Edward Cabrera were both transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear space for the duo on the 40-man roster.
Garrett’s placement on the injured list isn’t necessarily a surprise, as the club had already scratched him from today’s start due to elbow soreness yesterday. With that being said, the diagnosis of a forearm flexor strain is a concerning one that suggests Garrett could be in for a lengthy absence, though details about his exact timeline are not yet available. For Marlins fans, it surely brings to mind September of last year, when the Marlins provided the same diagnosis for right-hander Sandy Alcantara before the ace ultimately required Tommy John surgery.
Fortunately, not all forearm strains require such drastic treatment. Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray suffered a similarly-termed strain back in April that ultimately proved to be purely muscular without damage to the UCL. Gray is currently on a rehab assignment and could factor into the Nationals’ pitching plans prior to the All Star break, roughly three months after the initial injury. A similar timeline could see Cabrera return sometime in September, prior to the end of the 2024 campaign.
Regardless of when Cabrera winds up being able to return to the club, however, the Marlins figure to be in a bit of a pickle as they look to piece together their rotation mix. Miami currently has seven starters on the injured list, leaving them with lefty Trevor Rogers, righty Roddery Munoz, and righty Yonny Chirinos as their only three established starting pitchers. That trio will be joined by Tyler, who is slated to start today’s game against the Mariners. A 20th-round pick by the Angels in the 2018 draft, the righty has made eight multi-inning relief appearances in the big leagues since he first made his MLB debut back in 2021, though he’s never started a game at the big league level.
He’s pitched fairly well in his limited opportunities in the majors with a 2.45 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 18 1/3 innings of work. That includes a single appearance with the Marlins earlier this year where he allowed one run in two frames where he allowed one hit and no walks with one strikeout. It’s unclear if Tyler will continue to pitch as part of the club’s rotation after today or if this is a spot start for the 27-year-old. Also joining Tyler on the active roster is the lefty Emanuel, who has been shuttling between the 40-man roster and the minor leagues all throughout the 2024 campaign for the Marlins. In 8 1/3 innings of work for the club this year across four appearances, Emanuel has struggled to a 7.56 ERA with an 8.19 FIP. Nonetheless, the southpaw will provide the club with a multi-inning option out of the bullpen who could piggyback with the right-handed Tyler if necessary this afternoon.
As for Luzardo and Cabrerea, the 60-day IL placements come as a mild surprise for both players. In Luzardo’s case, the lefty was placed on the IL just yesterday with a lumbar stress reaction, and manager Skip Schumaker suggested that injury typically has a 4-6 week timeline. Now that Luzardo is out for at least the next two months, it’s safe to say the Marlins believe he’ll be out for longer than that general timeline. He’ll first be eligible to return from the shelf in late August. Cabrera’s placement also somewhat surprising given the fact that he’s already built up to the 50-pitch range on a rehab assignment, though given the fact that the righty would be eligible to be activated from the shelf in just two weeks it could be a purely procedural transaction.
Orelvis Martinez Receives 80-Game Suspension Following Positive PED Test
The MLB commissioner’s office announced this morning that Blue Jays infielder Orelvis Martinez has received an 80-game suspension without pay after testing positive for Clomiphene, a banned performance enhancing substance. The suspension is effective immediately. Martinez has since been placed on the restricted list, and the Blue Jays have selected the contract of outfielder Steward Berroa to replace the infielder on the active and 40-man rosters.
“The Blue Jays fully support Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, and strongly believe in keeping the game on a level playing field,” Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said in a statement this morning. “We were both surprised and disappointed to hear of Orelvis Martinez’s suspension. We will do everything in our power to ensure Orelvis has learned from this mistake. Orelvis has our support, and we know he will get through this.”
Martinez released a statement of his own via the MLB Players Association:
“For the past two years, I have been trying to start a family with my girlfriend. During the offseason, we visited a fertility clinic in the Dominican Republic and after getting lab work done, we were prescribed a treatment, which included a medication called Rejun 50. Unfortunately, Rejun 50 contains a banned substance called Clomiphene.
We wanted to keep this matter private, even within our family, and trusted the doctor who assured us this treatment did not include performance enhancing drugs. Therefore, I made the mistake of not disclosing this to my team or the MLBPA. With that said, I took full responsibility for my actions and accepted my suspension.
I want to apologize to my teammates in both Buffalo and Toronto, the Blue Jays organization, and most importantly, the fans who have supported me during my career. I will learn from this experience and come back to the field in September.”
The news is a major blow to the Blue Jays, who recalled Martinez for his big league debut just this past week to join the club’s infield mix after shortstop Bo Bichette hit the injured list with a calf strain. Martinez has just one game under his belt in the majors so far, having gone 1-for-3 with a strikeout while playing second base in his big league debut on Friday. While Martinez’s big league career had only just begun, he’s long been considered a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport and was in the midst of an excellent showing at Triple-A this year when he received the call to the majors. In 63 games for the club’s Buffalo affiliate this year, Martinez slashed .260/.343/.523 while playing both second and third base.
Now, Martinez’s big league career is on hold just days after it first began. The earliest he’ll be able to return to play in the big leagues is September 23 against the Red Sox, although given the fact that Martinez would be ineligible to participate in the postseason due to his suspension and that date landing just six games before the end of the regular season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Martinez did not end up returning to the majors until the 2025 campaign.
Fortunately for the Blue Jays, the club has plenty of options at its disposal to fill out the club’s infield mix while Bichette is injured, even without Martinez. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has stepped into the everyday role at shortstop since Bichette hit the shelf last week, and the club figures to mix and match between Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and Spencer Horwitz at second and third base while Bichette is away. The addition of Berroa to the roster mix should allow Schneider to mix into the infield more frequently than he has in recent weeks, as he’s split time between the keystone and left field to this point in the season.
As for Berroa, the 25-year-old made his pro debut with the Jays back in 2017 and has worked his way through the club’s minor league system since then, ultimately reaching Triple-A late last year. He struggled in that initial cup of coffee but has hit fairly well in 62 games at the highest level of the minors this season with a .295/.380/.451 slash line across 222 trips to the plate. Berroa figures to factor into the club’s outfield mix behind regulars Daulton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier, and George Springer alongside Schneider.