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Yankees Expected To Meet With Brandon Nimmo

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The Yankees are expected to meet with free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo this week, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Nimmo is attending the Winter Meetings in San Diego in order to have this very type of face-to-face meeting.

Interest in Nimmo isn’t necessarily indicative of any pessimism regarding the Yanks’ ongoing efforts to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman writes that the team is hoping to secure two outfielders this winter, and while Judge and Nimmo represent the two most expensive options on the market, they also represent the top two talents. It’s only natural that losing Judge would theoretically increase New York’s urgency to then lure Nimmo away from their crosstown rivals, but interest in one does not strictly depend on the other’s situation.

Nimmo, who’ll turn 30 near the end of Spring Training, is a sensible target for the Yankees, regardless of Judge’s eventual decision. The Yankees’ seven-year extension for center fielder Aaron Hicks has proven to be a misstep, as Hicks has been oft-injured throughout the life of the deal and has seen his defensive ratings in center decline. The 2022 season actually marked the first time that Judge has played primarily center field, and his shift to center was borne largely out of injuries and poor performance from Hicks. The Yankees could have turned things over to young Estevan Florial for a larger look, but despite a solid showing in Triple-A, the team gave Florial just 35 big league plate appearances, during which time he went 3-for-31 with 13 strikeouts.

Adding Nimmo would give the Yankees a clear-cut everyday option in center, where his defensive ratings have improved considerably over the past two seasons in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (1), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.5) and Outs Above Average (9).The former No. 13 overall draft pick would also give the Yankees a high-OBP, relatively low-strikeout option to bat atop or near the top of the order, and the appeal of taking any left-handed hitter and allowing him to reap the benefits of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch has obvious allure.

Over the past three seasons, Nimmo has turned in a collective .280/.384/.443 batting line with 32 home runs, 55 doubles, 13 triples, an impressive 12.3% walk rate and a lower-than-average 18.5% strikeout rate. He’s been 38% better than a league-average offensive player in that span, by measure of wRC+, due largely to his elire on-base skills. Of the 342 players to tally at least 500 plate appearances since 2020, only six have reached base at a higher rate than Nimmo: Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Judge, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt.

Injuries have been the primary knock on Nimmo throughout his career, as he’d only played in 100 games one time entering the 2022 season (though he did appear in 55 of 60 contests during the shortened 2020 campaign). He enjoyed his healthiest season to date in 2022, however, logging a career-high 151 games. The injury history on Nimmo is long, as he’s missed time with knee, foot, neck, hamstring and finger injuries in addition to a partially collapsed lung in 2017. For all those injuries, he’s only been on the 60-day IL once in his career, when he missed 104 days due to a neck injury in 2019.

Checkered health history notwithstanding, it’s an extraordinarily thin market for center fielders this winter, with Nimmo standing as the only true everyday option who’s coming off a strong season (assuming one still considers Judge more of a right fielder). Nimmo has been an excellent offensive player, a solid defender and, in recent seasons, more durable on the whole, appearing in just shy of 78% of possible games dating back to 2020. The general expectation is that he’ll secure a nine-figure contract — perhaps even one that pushes to six years in length.

Pairing Nimmo and Judge could very well tack $60MM or more in luxury-tax obligations onto the Yankees’ 2023 ledger, which currently sits at a projected $222.2MM, per Roster Resource. A Judge/Nimmo pairing would skyrocket the Yankees from a bit shy of the luxury tax all the way to the third tier of penalization and place them within arm’s reach of the newly implemented fourth tier, which kicks in at $293MM this coming season. Of course, that number could be whittled down by finding a taker for Hicks or Josh Donaldson on the trade market (though the Yankees would surely have to pay down some of their remaining commitments), or perhaps by shopping any of the team’s pricier arbitration-eligible players (e.g. Gleyber Torres, Isiah Kiner-Falefa).

Nimmo rejected a $19.65MM qualifying offer from the Mets and would thus cost the Yankees, who paid the luxury tax in 2022, their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft, as well as a $1MM reduction in the size of their 2023 bonus pool for international amateur free agents. In addition to the Yankees, he’s been linked to the Mariners, Blue Jays, Giants, Rays and incumbent Mets.

White Sox Have Discussed Liam Hendriks In Trade Talks

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The White Sox have discussed star closer Liam Hendriks in talks with other teams this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). There’s no indication a deal is especially likely, although it stands to reason a number of clubs would have interest in installing the three-time All-Star into their late-inning mix if Chicago’s amenable to making a trade. Feinsand notes Hendriks’ contract contains a limited no-trade provision that allows him to block a move to five unknown teams.

Hendriks just wrapped a fourth consecutive excellent season. A journeyman depth arm for the first eight seasons of his MLB career, he broke out with a 1.80 ERA in 85 stellar innings for the A’s in 2019. The Australian earned his first All-Star selection that year, and he performed at a similarly excellent level during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. His final two seasons in Oakland saw him put up a 1.79 ERA while holding opponents to a .192/.240/.289 line through 99 games.

Over the 2020-21 offseason, the White Sox signed Hendriks to a $54MM free agent contract. It was technically a three-year guarantee, with Hendriks making $12MM in ’21, $13MM in ’22 and $14MM next season. The 2024 campaign is technically covered by a club option, but both the option price and the buyout are valued at $15MM. It’s a no-brianer to exercise the option then; the only reason for the Sox to opt for the buyout would be if they simply didn’t want Hendriks on the roster, which would probably only happen in the unfortunate event he suffers a serious injury that’d cost him the whole season. If the Sox do trade Hendriks, that option would become guaranteed — although again, that’s largely immaterial.

Hendriks has picked up right where he’d left off on the South Side of Chicago. He’s been selected to the Midsummer Classic in both seasons as a White Sox, and he earned some down-ballot Cy Young support with a 2.54 ERA over 71 frames in 2021. His 2022 campaign was technically his worst in four years, though that’s only a testament to the incredible bar he’d set. The right-hander worked to a 2.81 ERA over 57 2/3 innings, striking out an elite 36.2% of opponents. Hendriks lost a few weeks midseason with an alarming-sounding forearm strain, but he returned without any signs of ill effect. He fanned 35.4% of opponents after the All-Star Break, working to a 3.33 ERA while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball.

While he turns 34 in February, he’s shown no signs of tailing off thus far. Hendriks is due $29MM over the final two seasons of his current contract. As one of the best relievers in the sport, he’d have plenty of appeal on the trade market at that price. The free agent market for late-game arms has both been strong and moved quickly, and the only reliever of Hendriks’ caliber who’d have been available (Edwin Díaz) re-signed with the Mets just before the signing period opened.

That highlights the potential for Hendriks to be a key player on the offseason trade market, but that’d require the White Sox showing an openness to moving him. That his name has surfaced in trade discussions is far from an indication the Sox are actively shopping him, as it’s possible general manager Rick Hahn and his group are simply taking calls from interested clubs out of due diligence.

The White Sox are set on bouncing back from an average 2022 campaign to try to reclaim their spot atop the AL Central. Subtracting Hendriks from the ninth inning would make that more difficult, and it stands to reason they’d only move him for a deal that netted them MLB-ready help elsewhere on the roster. Chicago does have an excellent bullpen that’d still be a strength even without Hendriks, as Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López are all strong late-inning arms. Joe Kelly has the potential to assume high-leverage innings himself, as does young southpaw Garrett Crochet, who’s working back from April 2022 Tommy John surgery.

Chicago has more pressing needs elsewhere on the roster. They signed Mike Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal to fortify the rotation behind Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech, but they could look for another depth arm. Second base is a major question mark, and they could look to add a bat to factor into the corner outfield/designated hitter mix. The Sox didn’t get especially good production from catcher or third base this past season either. Both Yasmani Grandal and Yoán Moncada are under contract and expected to get opportunities to right the ship, but Chicago could theoretically look into either position if the chance presents itself.

Hahn told reporters at last month’s GM Meetings the club was more likely to accomplish any roster reshuffling via trade than free agency. Chicago’s 2023 payroll projection, per Roster Resource, is around $179MM. That’s about $14MM shy of this year’s Opening Day figure, so the Sox should have a bit of financial breathing room, but they may have to look towards the lower tiers of free agency for any pickups. Hahn told reporters this evening the club has to be more open-minded than they were last winter to make any major roster changes after their disappointing 2022 campaign (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).

Orioles Agree To One-Year Deal With Kyle Gibson

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TODAY: Gibson signed for one year and $10MM, Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). The O’s continue to look for more veteran pitching, and “anyone who’s out there” on the market is a possibility.  This includes starters who have turned down qualifying offers.  In other Gibson news, the Blue Jays were also known to have interest in the right-hander, and The Athletic’s Dan Connolly reports that Gibson took Baltimore’s offer over an identical one-year, $10MM deal with Toronto.

DECEMBER 3: The Orioles have strengthened their rotation, with veteran starter Kyle Gibson agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical.

It’d been widely reported that the Orioles were in the market for starting pitching additions, and Gibson gives them a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. They’ve been linked to a number of other starting pitchers this off-season, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Gibson isn’t the only one joining the team this winter.

Gibson, 35, had a 5.05 ERA across 167 2/3 innings for the Phillies in 2022. Advanced metrics were a bit more favorable, and his FIP stood at 4.28. He did post the best walk rate of his career (6.7%), and while his strikeout numbers have never jumped off the page they were 1.5% better than his career rate of 18.6%.

Gibson was drafted by the Twins with the 22nd pick of the 2009 draft, and made his debut 2013. He struggled a bit initially, but soon settled in as a durable arm at the back of their rotation. He’d go on to make 188 starts across seven seasons for the Twins, peaking in 2018 when he made 32 starts for a 3.62 ERA, almost a full run below his average while in Minnesota.

After reaching free agency at the conclusion of the 2019 season, Gibson latched on with the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal. He struggled a bit in the pandemic-shortened season but straightened things out in 2021, pitching to a 2.87 ERA across 19 starts and turning himself into a valuable trade chip for the Rangers at the deadline that year.

Advanced metrics did have him ripe for regression that year, and he did drop off a bit after the Phillies acquired him, pitching to a 5.09 ERA the rest of the way in 2021.

His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he mixes that with a slider, curveball and changeup, as well as a cutter that’s been introduced in recent seasons. It’s the durability that Gibson is noted for though, and apart from his rookie year (and the pandemic season), he’s made at least 25 starts in the other eight full seasons.

He slots into a rotation that features Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Austin Voth – none of whom have ever reached 25 starts in a big league season. Top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez is also likely to feature in 2023, but as a rookie they’ll be keeping a close eye on his workload.

From here, it seems likely the Orioles will pursue another addition to the rotation as they look to supplement their young roster. The likes of Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker would all make sense for Baltimore, and while Gibson can certainly work as a valuable innings-eater, adding one of those names would give their rotation a bit more punch as they look to build off their promising 83-79 2022 season.

Angels Sign Carlos Estevez

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The Angels have continued their early-offseason activity, announcing the signing of reliever Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $13.5MM deal. The former Rockie receives $6.75MM in each of the next two seasons, the team disclosed.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic suggested earlier this afternoon the Halos were hoping to add to their late-inning mix. Within a few hours, they’ve finalized an agreement to add a power arm to Phil Nevin’s bullpen. Estévez is among the hardest throwers in the sport, and he’s coming off the best season of what has been an up-and-down MLB career.

Estévez began with a pair of seasons with an ERA north of 5.00. He took a step forward in 2019, working to a 3.75 ERA across 72 frames while striking out an above-average 26.3% of opponents. The native of the Dominican Republic looked like a potential high-leverage arm for the Rockies, but he stumbled to a 7.50 ERA during the abbreviated 2020 campaign thanks to massive home run issues.

The right-hander has gotten the longball in check over the past two seasons and performed at a generally solid level for skipper Bud Black. He worked to a 4.38 mark across 61 2/3 innings in 2021, then posted a career-low 3.47 ERA this past season. He’s struck out opponents at a roughly average clip in both seasons, although his swing-and-miss rate took a step back this year. Estévez generated swinging strikes on only 9% of his offerings in 2022, down almost two percentage points from the year prior and well below his 13.9% personal high in 2019.

Despite the dip in swinging strikes, the Halos will roll the dice on his high-octane arsenal. He averaged a blistering 97.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball, pushing into triple digits on occasion. Estévez has sat in the 97-98 MPH range every year of his major league career, and he’s relied heavily on that heater. He turned to his fastball just over 70% of the time, mixing in a changeup against left-handers and a slider to same-handed opponents.

That slider had excellent results in 2022, helping Estévez stifle right-handed hitters more generally. He held righties to a .204/.292/.306 line through 113 plate appearances. Left-handers only managed a .216/.287/.432 slash themselves, although that success was more built off an unsustainable .222 batting average on balls in play. Estévez had a below-average 19.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, but he punched out an impressive 26.5% of righties.

With his success against right-handers, Estévez should at least profile as a hard-throwing matchup option in the middle innings for Nevin. He’ll join Ryan Tepera and Jimmy Herget as the club’s top right-handed options, while Aaron Loup profiles as their best matchup southpaw. Tepera and Herget have more pedestrian velocity, and Estévez could take over the uncertain ninth inning mix in Orange County. Estévez only has 25 career saves, including just two this past season, but reports this offseason have suggested teams viewed him as a potential closer outside of the league’s most hitter-friendly home ballpark.

Estévez turns 30 later this month, so he was one of the younger free agent relief options available. He’ll strengthen a Halo bullpen that ranked 18th in ERA (3.97) and 22nd in strikeout percentage (22.2%) this past season. It’s certainly possible general manager Perry Minasian and his staff continue to look for ways to strengthen their late-inning mix. They’ve been active in an attempt to snap an eight-year postseason drought. They signed Tyler Anderson to a three-year, $39MM guarantee to bolster the rotation while swinging deals for Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe to strengthen the infield and outfield, respectively. Estévez becomes the latest in their pattern of acquisitions — a shorter-term investment for a notable but hardly overwhelming salary to build depth which their recent rosters have lacked.

MLBTR predicted a three-year, $21MM deal for Estévez at the start of the offseason. He lands a salary in that range annually, but the Halos keep their commitment to two seasons. Anaheim’s payroll now sits around $198MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s already above this past season’s $189MM Opening Day figure, which was a franchise-record outlay. Anaheim is also looking into ways to upgrade the middle infield, so it seems likely they’ll wind up above $200MM by the time the 2023 season rolls around. Their luxury tax commitments are now around $212MM, per Roster Resource, leaving approximately $21MM in breathing room before next year’s base tax threshold.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Angels and Estévez were in agreement on a deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report it was a two-year guarantee worth around $14MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Extend GM Brian Cashman

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The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve signed general manager Brian Cashman to a four-year contract extension.  He’s now signed through 2026.

Now 55 years old, Cashman has been in place as the Yankees’ general manager since 1998. With Billy Beane’s recent transition to an advisory role with the A’s, Cashman became the longest-tenured baseball operations leader in Major League Baseball. The team has somewhat remarkably had a winning record in all 25 of Cashman’s seasons at the helm and made the playoffs in 21 of those 25 campaigns. However, it’s now been 13 seasons since they’ve reached the World Series, with their 2009 victory over the Phillies standing as the most recent time the Yankees advanced past the ALCS.

Cashman has become a lightning rod for criticism from Yankee fans as they continue to voice frustration over the team’s World Series “drought,” and that criticism will only grow louder if reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge departs in free agency, whether to sign with the Giants (his childhood team), the Dodgers or a “mystery team” whose presence in the Judge bidding is not yet known.

Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner, however, has taken a different tack than that of his late, oft-impulsive father George, praising Cashman’s stability and the annually competitive rosters he’s put together. Granted, possessing one of the sport’s largest payrolls each year can help to paper over plenty of missteps, but we’ve seen plenty of deep-pocketed clubs with huge payrolls post sub-.500 records and miss the postseason over the years. Payroll notwithstanding, that level of consistency is indeed impressive, though the regularity with which the Yankees reach the playoff field has also inherently increased expectations; division titles and ALCS berths are  not considered sufficient by a substantial portion of the team’s fan base.

The challenges for Cashman that lay ahead begin but certainly don’t end with Judge. The 2022 American League MVP carried an otherwise lifeless Yankees offense through the second half of the season and captivated a national audience along the way, chasing down and narrowly surpassing Roger Maris’ longstanding American League home run record. Re-signing Judge would send the Yankees barreling into the second tier of luxury tax penalization at a time when there are other clear needs on the roster.

Even if Judge is retained, the Yankees will have a heavily right-handed lineup in need of some balance, to say nothing of multiple undesirable contracts (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks) driving up the actual bottom-line payroll and the team’s luxury-tax number. There’s work to do in the bullpen, too, and the Yankees could see two starters reach free agency following the 2023 season in Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. Their potential exit surely plays a role in the team’s reported interest in Carlos Rodon, who’d likely become an even greater focus should Judge depart. At that point, Cashman and his staff would need to determine whether to pivot and dive back into a shortstop market they eschewed one offseason ago. That decision, in particular, will be placed under a microscope over the next couple years as prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza take center stage in the Bronx.

As with any general manager or president of baseball operations, Cashman’s tenure is checkered with hugely successful transactions and regrettable deals. Last winter’s acquisition of Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa likely didn’t provide the value the team was hoping for (particularly since it cost them a solid campaign from Gio Urshela), and August’s Montas acquisition immediately harkened back to Sonny Gray’s disappointing tenure with the Yankees. Then again, recent trades for Jose Trevino, Clay Holmes and Anthony Rizzo have been excellent, and Harrison Bader shined with a brilliant postseason effort.

All any general manager or president of baseball ops can do is hope the successes outweigh the missteps and hope to be able to convince ownership they’re the proper person for the job. Yankee fans can have spirited debates about whether the first half of that sentence applies to Cashman, but it’s abundantly clear that Steinbrenner values the continuity, professionalism and persistent winning that Cashman has overseen in what’s now an incredible quarter century on the job.

Carlos Rodon Seeking Six-Year Deal

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With Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander off the market — to the Rangers and to the Mets, respectively — Carlos Rodon is the clear top starting pitcher left on the free-agent market. As one would expect for a 29-year-old lefty (30 next week) who opted out of the second season of his contract on the heels leading the National League in strikeouts, the asking price appears quite high. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that agent Scott Boras and Rodon have been seeking a six-year deal at an annual rate of $30MM or more. (Notably, that report pre-dates Verlander’s new agreement with the Mets.) Heyman suggests that the Yankees are the large-market team that is most focused on Rodon at present.

As always, it’s worth taking early asking prices with a grain of salt to some degree. That’s not to say Rodon can’t reach six years and/or a $30MM+ annual value, but it behooves any free agent to at least initially set a lofty asking price. A six-year deal for Rodon would put the lefty in rarefied air, as the list of free-agent pitchers to secure such a commitment is quite short.

No free-agent pitcher has pulled in six-plus years on the open market since the 2019 Winter Meetings, when Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) managed to do so. Prior to that pairing, the only free-agent deals of six or more years in length over the past decade have gone to Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke (twice!) and Patrick Corbin. Starting pitchers earning more than $30MM annually are similarly rare; Cole, Strasburg, Scherzer, Price, Greinke, Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and deGrom are the only pitchers to ever reach that level.

For Rodon to join either group of arms, he’ll need to convince the market that the injury troubles that dogged him for much of his early career are in the past. Rodon has undergone shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery in his career, and due to those injuries pitched just 232 1/3 innings at the Major League level over a four-year period (2017-20).

However, the former No. 3 overall pick returned to the White Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal in 2021 after being non-tendered, and broke out with one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the sport. Through mid-July in 2021, Rodon was the clear front-runner for American League Cy Young honors and quite arguably the most dominant pitcher in either league. Shoulder fatigue down the stretch dropped his velocity and relegated him to just six starts over the final two months, and durability concerns “limited” him to a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants — one that allowed him to opt out of the contract after one season if he pitched at least 110 innings.

Rodon not only reached 110 innings — he dominated to the tune of a 2.88 ERA through a career-high 178 frames. He held his velocity late in the season, averaged better than 5 2/3 frames per start and took significant strides toward alleviating some durability concerns. He paced the National League in strikeouts this past season and has now turned in consecutive campaigns with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, he leads all Major League pitchers (min. 200 innings) with a 33.9% strikeout rate. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, which may slightly impact his earning power, but that consideration shouldn’t be a major encumbrance for an in-his-prime, ace-caliber pitcher.

That’s especially true now, because with deGrom and Verlander off the market and little to no frontline starting pitchers clearly available in the trade market, demand for Rodon should be extra-steep. He can justifiably hold out for max years and/or dollars and go to the highest bidder, knowing that teams in need of an ace have no readily available alternative. Unlike Verlander, who surely prioritized signing with a win-now team due to his age, Rodon can consider a broader field of suitors. To this point in the offseason Rodon has drawn interest from as many as nine teams, with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Rangers, Twins and Orioles among the team’s reported to be involved in his market to at least some extent.

Dodgers Officially Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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The Dodgers announced today that they have re-signed Clayton Kershaw to a one-year deal worth $20MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that it will take the form of a $15MM salary and $5MM signing bonus. It’s been almost a month since it was reported that Kershaw was nearing a return to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. For some reason, it took a long time for the paperwork to be taken care of, but the club has now made it official today. Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Kershaw, 35 in March, was drafted by the Dodgers and has spent his entire career with the club. He made his debut back in 2008 when he was just 20 years old. Though he posted a 4.26 ERA at that young age, he took a step forward the next season and has been one of the best pitchers in the world ever since. To this point in his career, he has 2,581 innings under his belt with a 2.48 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate.

Kershaw is about a decade removed from his peak, when he won three Cy Young awards in four years, grabbing the trophy in 2011, 2013 and 2014. In the five-year stretch from 2011 to 2015, he topped 225 innings four times while never posting an ERA higher than 2.53.

Since that time, injuries have put a damper on the quantity of Kershaw’s work but the quality has remained quite strong. He hasn’t topped 180 innings since 2015 and has been kept under 127 since 2019. But he still generally keeps runs off the board when he’s on the mound. In 2022, he made a couple of trips to the IL but still made 22 starts and posted a 2.28 ERA over 126 1/3 innings, with rate stats roughly in line with his career marks.

Kershaw has signed a couple of extensions with the Dodgers over his time there, with the most recent one going through 2021. A free agent one year ago, it was speculated that Kershaw would be deciding between returning to the Dodgers, signing with the Rangers to be near his Dallas-area home, or retirement. Shortly after the lockout ended, Kershaw returned to Los Angeles on a one-year deal for $17MM plus incentives. This year, it was expected that Kershaw would be deciding between the same three paths. However, he didn’t wait around until the spring this time, with reports emerging shortly after the World Series that he would be coming back to the Dodgers yet again.

Kershaw was one of three starters that the Dodgers saw reach free agency at the end of the 2022 season, with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney also hitting the open market. Walker Buehler is likely to miss the entire campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. With Kershaw back in the fold, he’ll join Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in the rotation. They have some internal candidates for the fifth spot, such as Ryan Pepiot or Michael Grove, but it’s likely they will keep their eye on further additions, especially with some injury question marks hovering around this group. As mentioned, Kershaw hasn’t reached 127 innings since 2019 and May only made six appearances in 2022 after returning from his own Tommy John surgery.

Adding Kershaw’s $20MM to the books bring the club’s payroll for 2023 to $173MM, per Roster Resource. The club has gone well beyond that in recent years but some reporting has suggested they may consider sneaking under the luxury tax in order to reset their status in that department. The competitive balance tax features escalating penalties for teams that go over in consecutive seasons and the Dodgers could potentially stay under the line in 2023 and then go into 2024 as “first-time” payors. The lowest CBT line in the coming season will be $233MM, with Roster Resource calculating the Dodgers to now be at $189MM. That gives them over $40MM of wiggle room, though they will have a number of areas on the roster to address. In addition to the aforementioned rotation situation, they declined a club option on third baseman Justin Turner, non-tendered center fielder Cody Bellinger and also lost shortstop Trea Turner to free agency along with many relievers and role players.

The Dodgers won 111 games in 2022, the highest such total in the lengthy history of the franchise. That led to their ninth National League West division title in the past ten years. However, they could be looking to shake things up after they were dispatched by the Padres in the NLDS. They have a large number of free agents but also a number of prospects at or near the MLB level who could be ready to make the jump. If they do indeed decide to curtail spending this winter, they will have some interesting choices to make in terms of where their devote their resources in the rest of the winter.

Rick Porcello Announces Retirement

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Former American League Cy Young winner Rick Porcello seemingly stepped away from baseball with scarcely a word about his decision to do so following the 2020 season, but in a new appearance on the Bradfo Sho with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the 33-year-old righty publicly confirmed for the first time that he has indeed retired.

Rick Porcello

“I wanted to be with my family,” said Porcello, who also tells Bradford that he and his brother built a house together in the two years since he’s last taken a big league mound. “I wanted to get back into that type of lifestyle and be around them because every year that you’re gone is another year where your parents are getting older, and your brothers are getting older.”

Porcello acknowledged that his struggles in his final two Major League seasons muted interest during the 2020-21 offseason, though it’s known that he at least drew some interest in a potential reunion with the Tigers that winter. No deal ever materialized, however, and Porcello has now apparently opted to dedicate his time and efforts to his family and to helping grow youth baseball in Vermont, where he and his brother built their aforementioned home. In addition to the full audio of the interview, Bradford has several lengthy quotes from Porcello on his decision to retire, on his struggles in 2019-20, on building that house and on his commitment to youth baseball in his column at WEEI.

Though his final game came in his age-31 season, Porcello still pitched a dozen full seasons in the Majors, thanks largely to the fact that he debuted as a 20-year-old rookie less than two years after the Tigers selected him with the No. 27 overall pick in the draft. Porcello finished third in 2009’s American League Rookie of the Year voting on the heels of a 3.96 ERA that he spun over the life of 170 2/3 innings.

Porcello was briefly optioned to Triple-A Toledo the following summer but otherwise never returned to the minors and practically never missed a start due to injury. The right-hander landed on the injured list just once in his 12-year career — a three-week absence due to a minor triceps strain in Aug. 2015. Porcello was the consummate workhorse, averaging 31 starts and 185 innings per season from 2009-19. He worked to a 4.36 ERA in 2037 1/3 innings along the way, and for a few years in the midst of that span, he peaked as one of baseball’s better pitchers.

At age 25 in 2014, Porcello enjoyed a breakout season, tallying a then-career-high 204 2/3 innings with a 3.43 ERA. Strikeouts were never a big part of the sinker specialist’s game, but Porcello thrived that season due to a tiny 4.9% walk rate, a strong 49% grounder rate and an average of just 0.79 homers per nine innings pitched. The Tigers, looking for some extra punch in their lineup, traded Porcello to the Red Sox in a deal that netted Yoenis Cespedes, Gabe Speier and Alex Wilson at the 2014 Winter Meetings, when both Porcello and Cespedes were just a season away from free agency.

However, Boston apparently had little intent of simply “renting” Porcello for a year, as the Sox inked him to a four-year, $82.5MM contract extension that spring. Porcello’s first season at Fenway set off alarm bells, as he tied a career-worst 4.92 ERA. The red flags disappeared when he not only rebounded in 2016 but shattered all of his career rate stats en route to a 3.15 ERA, an MLB-best 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a narrow win over former teammate Justin Verlander in 2016 American League Cy Young voting.

That season proved to be Porcello’s individual peak, but Porcello called the 2018 season “the crowning achievement in my career” due to a more team-oriented accolade, as he and the Red Sox shook off a pair of ALDS exits in 2016-17 to take home a World Series title. Porcello started 28 games for the ’18 Red Sox and pitched to a 4.28 ERA, adding 15 1/3 frames of 3.52 ERA ball in the postseason that year — including a Game 4, series-clinching ALDS victory at Yankee Stadium in which he held Boston’s archrivals to one run in five strong innings.

The following season, 2019, marked the beginning of the end for Porcello’s run in the Majors. He was tagged for a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings before heading out into free agency and signing a one-year deal with the Mets. True to form, he took the ball every fifth day for the Mets during the pandemic-shortened season and started a dozen of their 60 games, but Porcello’s struggles continued as he logged a 5.64 ERA in 59 innings.

In chatting with Bradford, Porcello acknowledged unsuccessfully trying to keep up with leaguewide changes that saw four-seam fastballs and sliders become increasingly en vogue; indeed, he threw a career-high 31.1% four-seamers and career-low 24.5% sinkers in 2019, and in 2020 he threw a career-high 29.2% sliders. None of those tweaks worked in his favor, and Porcello added that the pandemic afforded him “new perspective on life” and played a role in his decision to prioritize time spent with family rather than seek out a rebound campaign on the mound.

Though he’s retired at a young age, Porcello accomplished plenty in his 12 big league seasons. He’ll walk away from the game with a 150-125 record, a 4.40 ERA, 1561 strikeouts and just 489 walks in 2096 1/3 big league innings (plus another 40 innings of 4.73 ERA ball in the playoffs). Porcello was a top-three Rookie of the Year finisher, a Cy Young winner and a World Series champion in a career that FanGraphs valued at 29.6 wins above replacement. Between his original contract out of the draft (back when MLB deals were allowed for draftees), his arbitration earnings, his Red Sox extension and his Mets free-agent deal, Porcello earned more than $128MM. Best wishes to Porcello and his family in life after baseball.

Fred McGriff Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

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Longtime first baseman Fred McGriff was inducted to the Baseball Hall of Fame, the only player elected out of the eight nominees under consideration by the 16-person Era Committee. McGriff was a unanimous vote, getting votes from all 16 members.

Twelve votes were required for selection, and of the other seven players on the ballot, Don Mattingly came closest with eight votes.  Curt Schilling received seven votes, Dale Murphy six votes, and the other candidates (Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro) each got fewer than four votes.

McGriff hit .284/.377/.509 with 493 home runs over his career, which spanned 19 seasons (1986-2004) with the Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Rays, Cubs, and Dodgers.  The Crime Dog’s impressive resume included a World Series ring with the 1995 Braves, as well as the individual honors of five All-Star appearances, three Silver Slugger awards, and six top-10 finishes in MVP voting.  McGriff’s highest finish in the MVP race was fourth, during a 1993 season split between San Diego and Atlanta.

The Yankees actually drafted McGriff in the ninth round in 1981, but he was dealt to the Blue Jays in 1982 as part of a trade that longtime Bronx fans still remember with regret — ironically, Mattingly’s presence as the Yankees’ first baseman of the future was one of the reasons New York was comfortable in dealing McGriff.  Blossoming as a star in Toronto, McGriff nevertheless found himself dealt to the Padres almost exactly 32 years ago to the day, in one of baseball’s most memorable blockbuster trades.  The Jays moved McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter, in a swap that set the table for Toronto’s World Series titles in 1992 and 1993.

The Padres’ own hopes of contention faded, and McGriff was one of many notables dealt during a fire sale in 1993.  The first baseman became one of the stalwarts of the Braves’ success throughout the 1990’s, and enjoyed some championship success himself with Atlanta’s 1995 title.  Over his career in the postseason, McGriff continued to swing a mighty bat, hitting .303/.385/.532 with 10 homers over 218 PA in the playoffs.

McGriff then joined the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 1998, with the Tampa native getting a chance to play in his hometown.  Over five seasons with the Devil Rays and then in brief stints with the Cubs and Dodgers, McGriff was still at least an above-average hitter until well into his late 30’s, before finally starting to slow down with L.A. in 2003 and then a final season with Tampa Bay in 2004.

Though McGriff was a staple of any “professional hitter” discussion, he was also somewhat underrated during his career, perhaps owing to the fact that he played for several teams during his career rather than becoming an iconic figure for one particular franchise.  The 1994-95 players’ strike was also often cited as a reason for McGriff’s lack of Cooperstown recognition, as those lost games surely cost McGriff the chance of surpassing the 500-homer threshold, leaving him with “only” 493 big flies.

These may have been reasons why McGriff never came close to the 75% voting threshold required for induction via the writers.  It also didn’t help that McGriff had the bad luck of being up for election amidst a crowded era for candidates, including several players dogged by PED suspicions or other off-the-field issues — including Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, and Schilling.

The “veterans committee” is the catch-all name for an annual panel of rotating membership, organized by the Hall Of Fame every year to gauge the cases of players who weren’t elected or considered by the writers, or non-playing personnel who aren’t a part of the writers’ ballot.  Candidates are considered from the “Contemporary Baseball” (1980-present) and “Classic Baseball” (1980 and earlier) time periods, and broken down into a three-year rotation…

  • Contemporary Baseball, players: 2022, 2025, 2028, etc.
  • Contemporary Baseball, managers/executives/umpires: 2023, 2026, 2029, etc.
  • Classic Baseball, all candidates: 2024, 2027, 2030, etc.

As such, the seven players who weren’t voted in on this year’s ballot will have to wait until December 2025 to receive another look, and it isn’t necessarily a guarantee that any of those seven will even make the 2025 shortlist.  However, since several of the names on the veterans committee change every year, it is quite possible that a HOF candidate who missed out this time might be regarded more favorably by a future committee.

That being said, the rather drastic lack of support for Bonds and Clemens on this ballot might be a strong hint that it will be some time before the hard feelings dissipate over the two superstars’ alleged use of PEDs.  While Bonds and Clemens weren’t inducted by the writers, their final year on the ballot saw them each obtain at least 65% of the vote, falling respectably close to that 75% threshold.  Likewise, Palmeiro (who was suspended for PED usage in 2005) lasted only four years on the writers’ ballot before falling off, and was perhaps even a surprise candidate for inclusion on this year’s Contemporary Baseball shortlist.  Schilling’s history of inflammatory and controversial public statements and tweets also stalled his support from the writers, and his first appearance on an Era Committee also saw him fall well short of induction.

It also seems possible that the overwhelming show of support for McGriff was also something of a repudiation of the PED era.  McGriff, Mattingly, and Murphy were seen as the most controversy-free candidates on this particular eight-player ballot, with no ties to PEDs or other off-the-field issues.  Though McGriff’s power numbers were impressive in their own right, the overwhelming homer totals posted by some of McGriff’s peers in the late 90’s and early 2000’s had the effect of making his numbers look lesser in comparison, which may have been another reason why McGriff never quite got his full due either during his career or on the writers’ ballot.

McGriff will be inducted into Cooperstown on July 23.  He will be joined by any players elected via the writers’ ballot, and those results will be announced on January 24.

This year’s 16-person Contemporary Baseball committee was comprised of Angels owner Arte Moreno, former Blue Jays president Paul Beeston, Twins president/CEO Dave St. Peter, Diamondbacks president/CEO Derrick Hall, White Sox executive VP Ken Williams, Marlins GM Kim Ng, former Red Sox/Cubs front office boss Theo Epstein, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, longtime statistician and broadcaster Steve Hirdt, and Hall-of-Fame players Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas and Alan Trammell.  Chipper Jones was initially supposed to be part of the committee, but couldn’t participate due to illness and was replaced by Hall.

White Sox Sign Mike Clevinger

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December 4: Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports that the deal has become official. Clevinger will earn $8MM in 2023, with a $12MM mutual option for the 2024 season that has a $4MM buyout. The White Sox 40-man roster is now at 36.

November 28: Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the guarantee is $12MM.

November 27: The White Sox have agreed to a one-year deal with right-hander Mike Clevinger, and the contract will become official once Clevinger passes a physical.  Clevinger, represented by ACES, will earn over $8MM in guaranteed money.

After undergoing a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entirety of the 2021 season, Clevinger returned to the Padres in May. He experienced a noticeable drop in velocity, with his fastball averaging 93.5 MPH compared to 95 MPH during the 2019 and 2020 seasons — this likely contributed to a decreased strikeout rate (18.8% in 2022 compared to 27.5% in 2020 and 22.6% in 2019). Nevertheless, Clevinger was able to pitch 114 1/3 regular season innings of 4.33 ERA ball, with a 7.2% walk rate, and 35.2% groundball rate.  He also started a pair of playoff games, allowing seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

The White Sox now have a projected staff of Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Michael Kopech, though Kopech is recovering from a left knee strain and right shoulder inflammation. The addition of Clevinger likely closes the book on a potential Johnny Cueto return. Cueto proved invaluable after signing a minor league deal with the Sox, posting a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 frames.

Though Clevinger’s post-Tommy John work was uninspiring, some teams may hope further distance from the surgery and/or tweaks to his repertoire may aid him in rediscovering his 2017-2019 form, where the righty pitched 447 2/3 innings with a 2.96 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, and 40.2% groundball rate.

The Padres acquired Clevinger from the Indians in a nine-player trade at the 2020 trade deadline. It’s worth noting that the White Sox were also in the mix for the pitcher they knew so well from the AL Central, though Ken Rosenthal reported at the time that the Sox felt they were something of a “stalking horse,” as Cleveland never intended to move the righty to a division rival.  Clevinger made four starts after the deal, but was then scratched for what was at the time called biceps tightness and later revised to an elbow sprain. The Padres brought him back for Game 1 of the NLDS that year, but he was pulled from the start and was on the operating table facing Tommy John surgery the following month.

At the time of the TJ announcement, the Padres also bought out Clevinger’s final two arbitration years for a total of $11.5MM, effectively paying him that amount for what he could contribute in ’22. Though Clevinger remarked in March, “I feel healthier than I have in my entire career,” he sprained his knee shortly thereafter, leading to a May 4th season debut. He hit the IL again after three starts due to a triceps strain.

Over his first ten games, Clevinger was able to miss bats at an above average 24.7% clip. Over his last 11 starts, however, Clevinger punched out only 13.5% of opposing batters. Clevinger’s fastball had a pronounced decline as the season wore on, occasionally working at 95+MPH in some of his earlier starts versus a few sub-93 MPH games in the dog days of summer. Although, this was the first time he had pitched over 42 innings in a season since 2019 and some fatigue was expected.

With a cast of unproven hurlers vying for the fifth starting spot and Kopech recovering from knee surgery, starting pitching was certainly on GM Rick Hahn’s to-do list heading into the offseason. However, Hahn said earlier this month that the team was somewhat limited financially, and the Sox weren’t going beyond the roughly $193MM payroll (a club record) spent last season. Other reports suggested that number might be closer to $180MM, and depending on just how much over $8MM Clevinger is receiving, Roster Resource estimates that the White Sox are already close to that $180MM figure.

As it happens, that $8MM-ish payday for Clevinger comes close to the $8MM that AJ Pollock left on the table by declining his player option for the 2023 season. Pollock wasn’t expected to decline his option, so in that sense, Clevinger’s signing might almost be found money for the front office — and he’ll become an even bigger bargain if he returned to his pre-Tommy John form. MLBTR ranked Clevinger 49th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a one-year, $10MM.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was the first to report that Clevinger and the White Sox had agreed to a deal.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reported the terms and length of the contract.

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