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Latest On Teoscar Hernandez

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The thinking that Teoscar Hernandez would sign early in the offseason or in the immediate aftermath of Juan Soto’s decision has not played out as such. The 32-year-old slugger remains unsigned, reportedly juggling interest from at least the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees to this point in the winter. Hernandez and the incumbent Dodgers have been unable to bridge a gap in Hernandez’s asking price and the team’s offer. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com adds further context, reporting that Hernandez is seeking a three-year deal that’ll guarantee him $22-24MM annually.

A three-year deal in $66-72MM range would generally dovetail with expectations. Hernandez’s agent, Rafa Nieves, already stated earlier in the offseason that Hernandez had been seeking three years last offseason when they pivoted and took a one-year deal in Los Angeles. A three-year deal on the heels of the slugger’s rebound campaign in L.A. seemed (and still seems) reasonable, even though he’s now headed into his age-32 season after rejecting a qualifying offer (and thus attaching himself to draft pick compensation). That $22-24MM range would align with last year’s $23MM salary (though some of that was deferred, dinging the net present value a bit).

With Soto off the board, Hernandez and fellow slugger Anthony Santander are the top corner outfield bats on the free agent market. Santander is two years younger but is also reportedly seeking a five-year deal after swatting 44 homers for the Orioles in 2024. Both players rejected QOs. Hernandez is the more affordable of the two but is also older and more strikeout-prone. The presence of Cody Bellinger on the trade market and the recent emergence of the now-traded Kyle Tucker might’ve combined to slow things down for Hernandez’s market, speculatively speaking.

Hernandez turned in a .272/.339/.501 slash with a career-high 33 home runs last season before going on to hit .250/.352/.417 in postseason play. His 28.8% strikeout rate was an improvement over his 31.1% mark from 2023 but still sat about six percentage points higher than league average. His 8.1% walk rate was the second-best of his career but fell right in line with the 8.2% league average. At this point, teams can expect plus power, a below-average walk rate and more strikeouts than they’d prefer from Hernandez. He drew well below-average marks for his defense, but Hernandez has plus speed and above-average arm strength, per Statcast, so a team might think there’s enough raw talent to coax some better performance out of him.

The defensive concerns do make a multi-year reunion with the Dodgers a potentially problematic pairing, however. Hernandez has said he hopes to return — and the Dodgers are clearly open to a reunion. Beating the rest of the market when Hernandez is already 32 and there’s no DH opportunity thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani could make a long-term arrangement worrisome for Los Angeles in a way that’s not the case with other Hernandez suitors.

Yankees Sign Max Fried

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The Yankees made their biggest move of the winter official, announcing Tuesday that they’ve signed left-hander Max Fried to an eight-year contract. The CAA client will reportedly be guaranteed a staggering $218MM on the deal, which does not include an deferrals or opt-out provisions but does include a full no-trade clause. Fried receives a $20MM signing bonus that’ll be paid out in two equal in January 2025 and ’26. He’ll make $12MM in salary for each of the first two seasons and be paid $29MM annually between 2027-32. Fried is set to be introduced at a press conference on Wednesday, which is scheduled for noon ET.

After losing the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Yankees had plenty of money to outspend the rest of the field for his services and made use of those resources. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported earlier this evening that the Yanks were willing to offer Fried seven years, but they were evidently willing to going beyond that to get the market’s top unsigned southpaw on what is the largest contract for a lefty pitcher in MLB history, outbidding the club’s fellow finalists for Fried’s services in Boston and Dallas. It’s not hard to see what they like about the southpaw. Dating back to his first full season in 2019, Fried has a 3.07 ERA in 824 2/3 innings pitched. Only one pitcher in baseball has bested him in both categories during that time: Gerrit Cole, who he’ll now share the front of the Yankees rotation with.

That track record of dominance and durability that made Fried such an appealing target in the Bronx given the question marks that surround the rest of the club’s deep but flawed rotation mix. Carlos Rodón has been utterly dominant at times throughout his career, but he’s looked uneven in two seasons with the Yankees as he’s pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 46 starts. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman has a long history of solid mid-rotation work, but he’s entering his age-34 season and did not make an appearance during the club’s run to the World Series this postseason. Nestor Cortes offers similar mid-rotation stability but struggled as recently as last year and is just one season away from free agency. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil and fellow youngster Clarke Schmidt both turned in promising seasons in 2024 but have checkered injury histories and minimal track records in the big leagues.

By contrast, Fried is the whole package. Since breaking out as a front-of-the-rotation arm with Atlanta, Fried’s 2.81 ERA is the third-best figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, bested only by Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw. While his 23.6% strikeout rate during that time doesn’t exactly jump off the page, his 6.3% walk rate is well above average and he’s also generated grounders at an impressive 54.2% clip that only Alex Cobb, Logan Webb, and Framber Valdez have bested. The southpaw’s grounder-heavy approach should serve as an excellent complement to Cole’s power-pitching reputation and form a fearsome combo at the top of the Yankees rotation for years to come.

That combination was sufficiently intriguing to the Yankees that they were willing to go well over the top to land their man. The #6 ranked free agent on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agent list, Fried blew away the six-year, $156MM pact we predicted for him as well as other projections around the baseball world. Today’s pact is surely exciting news for Corbin Burnes and agent Scott Boras, to whom anyone hoping to land a top-of-the-rotation free agent this winter will now have to turn with both Fried and Blake Snell off the board. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox already began preparing an offer for Burnes this afternoon. The Blue Jays, another suitor for Fried, have also expressed interest in Burnes. Burnes landed as MLBTR’s #2 free agent of the winter behind only Soto and was predicted to land a seven-year, $200MM contract at the outset of the offseason but it would hardly be a surprise to see his camp’s asking price increase in light of Fried’s deal.

Turning back to the Yankees, their projected payroll for 2025 now sits at $257MM (per RosterResource). That’s still $46MM below last year’s total. Meanwhile, their $265MM luxury tax payroll is above the first two CBT thresholds; last season it sat above the fourth and highest threshold for penalties. In other words, the Yankees should still have plenty to spend on impact free agents to try to fill the Soto-shaped hole in the roster. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that signing Fried will cost the Yankees their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool money.

They might be hesitant to sign a second QO-rejecting free agent and therefore forfeit their third- and sixth-highest draft picks as well. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that while the Yankees signed three players who declined a QO during the 2022-23 offseason, two of them (Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo) were their own free agents and therefore did not cost the club anything beyond a hypothetical compensation pick. To find the last instance of the club signing multiple qualified free agents hailing from other teams in a single offseason, you would have to turn towards the 2013-14 offseason when the club landed Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann.

With that being said, some have compared the club’s approach to the free agent market in a post-Soto world to their approach that offseason, when they failed to re-sign star second baseman Robinson Cano. That could suggest at least some level of willingness to continue pursuing qualified free agents, particularly given the fact that they’ll receive a compensatory pick for the loss of Soto to help mitigate the losses. Christian Walker, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the other qualified free agents to which the Yankees have been connected since Soto signed in Queens.

One other avenue for improving the club signing Fried opens up is dealing a different starting pitcher, and with the club’s rotation now featuring seven starters it’s difficult to imagine the club not moving at least one if not two of their starters below Fried and Cole on the pecking order. Rodon’s weak results in the Bronx and hefty contract would appear to make a deal coming together involving him unlikely, but any of the club’s other four starters could reasonably be moved. Stroman and Cortes have frequently found their names in the rumor mill this winter as potential trade targets, though health question marks surrounding Cortes and Stroman’s lackluster 2024 campaign could hamper the potential return for either hurler. Schmidt and Gil would both surely bring back a far more interesting return but it’s unclear if the Yankees have much of an appetite for moving on from either youngster. While the club could dangling one or more of its starters in exchange for big league talent, it’s also possible that trading from the rotation could supplement the farm system and make the Yankees more comfortable losing the draft picks associated with additional qualified free agents signings.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first broke the agreement and the terms of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Joel Sherman of the New York Post came through with additional details. The Post’s Jon Heyman had the specific salary breakdown.

Orioles Sign Tomoyuki Sugano

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The Orioles signed longtime NPB star Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year contract on Monday evening. Sugano, a client of VC Sports Group, is reportedly guaranteed $13MM. Baltimore had an opening on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary.

Sugano makes the jump to Major League Baseball for the first time in what’ll be his age-35 season. He’s one of Japan’s most accomplished pitchers. The 6’1″ right-hander spent 12 years with the Yomiuri Giants in his home country. He posted a 2.43 earned run average in more than 1800 innings at the NPB level.

Major league scouts have followed Sugano for some time. He first appeared on many fans’ radars when the Yomiuri Giants made him available via the posting system during the 2020-21 offseason. Sugano was coming off a 1.97 ERA showing in his age-30 season. While he certainly attracted attention from big league clubs, he didn’t find a deal that compelled him to leave Japan. Instead, Sugano returned to the Giants on a four-year deal that paid him $40MM.

That contract allowed Sugano to opt out after each season, potentially clearing a path for him to make the move to MLB. He was evidently happy with his longtime club and decided not to take any of the early outs. Once the four-year term concluded, his camp made clear he intended to sign with an MLB team this offseason. Sugano had surpassed the nine years of NPB service time necessary to qualify for international free agency. Yomiuri will not receive any compensation for his departure, nor will the deal cost the Orioles anything other than the player’s salary.

Despite his age, Sugano is coming off one of his strongest seasons. He turned in a 1.67 ERA across 156 2/3 innings spanning 24 starts. It’s the second-lowest ERA of his career and earned him the NPB’s Central League MVP award for the third time. That’s not to say he’s still at his absolute peak form, however. Sugano only threw 77 2/3 innings during the 2023 season, reportedly on account of an elbow injury. His swing-and-miss rates have also dropped significantly compared to earlier years. Sugano struck out 18.3% of batters faced this year — well off the 24-26% range he’d posted in his late 20s.

Sugano’s NPB strikeout rate was about four percentage points lower than the 22% MLB average for starting pitchers. Many NPB hitters adopt a more contact-oriented approach than is common in the big leagues, so perhaps he’ll miss a few more bats in the majors. Sugano doesn’t have the same upside he would’ve brought a few seasons ago, though. Baseball America’s scouting report notes that his fastball velocity has dipped into the 92-93 MPH range after sitting somewhere between 94-96 MPH earlier in his career.

While the pure stuff has dropped as he’s aged and battled injury, Sugano has thrived thanks to his feel for pitching. That’s most evident in his excellent command. Sugano only walked 16 hitters all season, a microscopic 2.6% rate that’s lower than what any MLB starter managed this year (minimum 100 innings). That should rise slightly as he faces more patient hitters, but it’s fair to project Sugano for plus or better command.

Baseball America writes that Sugano indeed profiles as a control-oriented fourth or fifth starter. The outlet credits him with a five-pitch mix headlined by an above-average slider and splitter. Fans are encouraged to read BA’s full column, which also includes updated scouting reports on other prominent NPB and KBO players who are available to MLB teams (i.e. Roki Sasaki, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Hyeseong Kim and Koyo Aoyagi).

The contract aligns with MLBTR’s prediction of one year and $12MM. It values Sugano as a capable back-end starter. Alex Cobb signed for $15MM with the Tigers last week. Late-career innings eaters Lance Lynn ($11MM) and Kyle Gibson ($13MM) got similar one-year deals with the Cardinals last offseason.

Sugano is a needed rotation upgrade for GM Mike Elias and his front office. The O’s should continue searching for higher-upside arms in the coming weeks. Sugano slots behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez in the projected rotation. Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers, Albert Suarez and youngsters Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are options for the final two spots. The rotation remains Baltimore’s biggest question mark.

Sugano is the third highest-paid player on the roster, narrowly trailing Eflin ($18MM) and newly signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill ($16.5MM). Their player payroll is up to $134MM, as calculated by RosterResource. It’s not clear how far they’re willing to push spending in the first offseason under the David Rubenstein ownership group.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the salary. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Athletics Acquire Jeffrey Springs In Multi-Player Trade With Rays

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The Athletics and Rays have announced a multi-player trade that will see left-handers Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez head to West Sacramento.  In return, the Rays will receive right-hander Joe Boyle, the Athletics’ pick in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2025 draft, and two minor league players in righty Jacob Watters and first baseman/outfielder Will Simpson.

Considering how deep the Rays are in rotation options, Springs was viewed as a logical trade candidate this winter, as he was about to enter the more expensive portion of the backloaded four-year, $31MM extension he signed with Tampa in January 2023.  Springs is owed $10.5MM in each of the next two seasons, and there is a $15MM club option on his services for 2027 that can be bought out for $750K.

For the first two years and $9.25MM on that extension, the Rays only 49 innings of work from Springs, albeit with a 2.39 ERA.  A Tommy John surgery in April 2023 shelved Springs for the majority of the last two seasons, and he returned to the mound last July to post a 3.27 ERA over seven starts and 33 innings before he was shut down in early September due to fatigue in his throwing elbow.  It’s hard to gain much data from a small sample size, but Springs still had above-average strikeout and walk rate, and if anything might’ve gotten better bottom-line results if it wasn’t for a .330 BABIP.

Prior to the injury, Springs seemed like yet another success story for Tampa Bay’s pitching development system.  A 30th-round draft pick for the Rangers in the 2015 draft, Springs showed only a few flashes of quality over his first three MLB seasons while posting a 5.42 ERA in 84 2/3 innings with Texas and Boston.  Dealt from the Red Sox to the Rays in a relatively under-the-radar trade in February 2021, Springs emerged to post a 3.43 ERA in 44 2/3 bullpen innings for Tampa during the 2021 season, and he then had even better results after transitioning into a starting role in 2022.  The breakout year saw Springs deliver a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings (as well as a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate) as Springs finally seemed to avoid the home run problems that plagued most of his career.

Springs was able to cash in on his big season with a life-changing contract extension, but his long injury layoff turned him into an odd man out of the Rays’ rotation.  Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Zack Littell, and Drew Rasmussen are all lined up to get starts in 2025, not to mention whatever other young starters could emerge from Tampa’s ever-loaded farm system.  With Springs’ price tag rising, many figured that the Rays would move his salary to a pitching-needy team with payroll space to spare.

If the idea of the Athletics being a “team with payroll space to spare” is still surprising to consider, the 32-year-old Springs is now the second splurge the A’s have made on their rotation this winter, after having already signed Luis Severino to a three-year, $67MM deal.  Adding Springs’ contract brings the A’s a step closer to the minimum $105MM luxury tax figure required to continue qualifying as a revenue-sharing team, and to avoid a grievance from the players’ union.  RosterResource estimates the Athletics’ current tax number at roughly $88.55MM, assuming the trade is completed.

Ulterior motive notwithstanding, trading for Springs is also a solid baseball move for an A’s team in need of rotation help.  Severino and Springs are big upgrades to a rotation that struggled badly last season, and the newcomers now stand as the top two members of the starting five that includes JP Sears, Mitch Spence, and Joey Estes.

More pitching moves can’t be ruled out, since the Athletics still have a ways to go before hitting that $105MM figure.  Severino notwithstanding, it can’t be an easy sell for the A’s to convince free agents to pitch in a minor league ballpark in West Sacramento, so trading for players (perhaps on unwanted contracts) has long seemed like a more logical move for the Athletics to both add payroll and bolster their roster at the same time.

Lopez shouldn’t be ruled out as part of the Athletics’ pitching situation in 2025, as the southpaw has already amassed 22 2/3 MLB innings with the Rays over the last two seasons.  A 26th-round pick for the Giants in the 2018 draft, Lopez missed all of 2022 recovering from a Tommy John surgery, but he has a 2.99 ERA across 337 2/3 career minor league innings.  That includes a 3.54 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, and 12.87% walk rate in 168 innings of Triple-A ball, with Lopez starting 37 of 39 games for the Rays’ top affiliate.

Despite a lack of velocity, Lopez has been able to miss quite a few bats, though this ability hasn’t manifested itself in his brief time in the majors.  It could be that Lopez might’ve gotten more big league looks if he’d simply been on a team that didn’t have Tampa Bay’s pitching depth, and a fresh opportunity now presents itself for Lopez with this trade.  Lopez (who turns 27 in March) figures to be part of the fifth starter competition in camp but will probably begin the year at Triple-A, acting as one of the first depth options in the event of an injury to a rotation member.

Turning to the Rays’ end of the trade, the inclusion of the Comp-A pick is particularly interesting, and it might speak to the league-wide interest in Springs’ services.  The Competitive Balance Rounds are bonus rounds within the draft that award picks to 15 teams within the bottom 10 in market size and revenue, as determined by the league’s formula that factors in revenue, winning percentage and market score.  The CBR picks are the only draft selections that are eligible to be traded, and while such trades tend to be rare, we’ve seen these picks involved in some prominent trades over the years.  The Comp-A round takes place just before the start of the second round, and while the exact placement of the traded pick has yet to be determined, last year’s Comp-A picks were selections #34-39 in the 2024 draft order.

It is no small thing for a team to deal such a pick, especially when building through the draft is of particular importance to a low-spending team like the A’s.  Still, getting at least two years of control over Springs was apparently worth the cost, as with the club option, the Athletics could have Springs for the entirety of their three-year stint in Sacramento before their planned new ballpark in Las Vegas is ready for Opening Day 2028.

As for the other parts of the trade package, Boyle brings a Major League-ready arm to the Rays’ pitching mix.  Debuting with a 1.69 ERA in three starts and 16 innings in 2023, Boyle had a 6.42 ERA in 47 2/3 innings this past season, missing about a month of action with a back strain and spending the bulk of the year at Triple-A.

The 25-year-old is something of a classic case of a hard-throwing (97.7mph average fastball velocity in the majors) pitcher who can’t harness his stuff, as Boyle has posted elevated walk totals in the minors and during his 2024 stint in the Show.  Fixing these control problems will determine whether or not Boyle can stick in the big leagues as a reliever or back-end starter, and given the Rays’ history of fixing pitchers, nobody would be surprised if Boyle ends up figuring it out in Tampa just as Springs and many other hurlers have done over the years.  Boyle has two minor league options remaining, giving the Rays more flexibility in using him as a fresh arm to shuttle back and forth between Triple-A and the active roster.

Baseball America ranked Simpson 16th on their ranking of the Athletics’ top 30 prospects back in April, while MLB Pipeline has Simpson 28th in their evaluation of the team’s system.  A 15th-round pick in the 2023 draft, Simpson has crushed minor league pitching in his two pro seasons and made it to the Double-A level for 18 games in 2024.  Simpson has shown some good pop in his bat and he has a good approach at the plate — scouts like his “analytical aptitude,” as BA’s scouting report puts it, with the idea that Simpson can still unlock more as he explores more ways to upgrade his hitting.  Defensively, Pipeline is more bullish on the idea of Simpson as a serviceable first baseman or corner outfielder, while Baseball America is more down on his glovework in general.

Watters was a fourth-round pick for the A’s in the 2022 draft, and he has a 5.86 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, and an inflated 13.73% walk rate in 152 pro innings.  Almost all of this experience is at the high-A level, though Watters skipped Double-A to make one spot appearance in Triple-A ball last season.  Working as both a starter and reliever, Watters’ numbers have been decidedly better out of the pen, so that might be the 23-year-old’s eventual career path.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) reported the trade and all of the players and picks involved except for Lopez, whose involvement wasn’t revealed until the deal was officially announced. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker

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The Cubs and Astros announced that they have made a trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.

It’s a move that would have been completely shocking as recently as a few weeks ago. Tucker has been a key part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports emerged that the Astros were willing to listen to offers on Tucker as they looked to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. It appears that talks ramped up quickly and Houston found an offer they considered too good to pass up.

Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high profile draft picks that went on to be part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The club aggressively tanked last decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to sign Brady Aiken, their top pick in 2014, they received a compensation pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth overall selection on Tucker.

Both picks were big successes, as Bregman and Tucker each established themselves as All-Star capable big leaguers. This deal now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and might poetically point to the end of Bregman’s as well. Houston decision makers have long pointed to re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, as a top offseason priority. However, the two sides have reportedly remained far apart in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes might signal that Bregman won’t be coming back to Houston after all.

Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 home runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit exactly 30 in the first two of those campaigns and then 29 in the third. He also stole 69 bases in that time, had above average walk and strikeout rates and strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months due to a shin fracture but his limited performance was even stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.

Putting all of those traits together, Tucker was worth about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR even though he missed roughly half the year. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch puts him 13th among MLB position players, though he played fewer games than everyone ahead of him, thanks to that injury absence.

Unlike some other clubs, the Astros have shown a willingness to let their star players go get paid elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to sign with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a general reluctance to give out massive deals or pay the competitive balance tax. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension worth $157.5MM over six years is the biggest deal in franchise history, both in terms of years and dollars. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 but didn’t pay any taxes as the system was put on hold in the shortened season. 2024 was the first time they went over the line and actually had to pay the tax.

Coming into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed needed to “get a little bit creative” with the budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance a bit, but it appears the financial constraints are real. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made an offer to Bregman of $156MM but that he is looking for something closer to $200MM.

Tucker’s earning power next winter is likely to be even higher than Bregman’s is now. Bregman is going into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will be going into his age-29 campaign next winter.

It’s possible the Astros decided they weren’t likely to get a long-term deal done with either player and explored trade talks with Tucker, with this offer ticking a lot of boxes for them. It clears Tucker’s salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting those savings to Bregman is still possible but they’ve also found themselves a potential replacement in Paredes.

Over the past three years, Paredes has hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s also bounced around the infield, though has been at third base more than anywhere else. His defense at the hot corner has been close to average but it’s still made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR player recently. He is projected to make $6.9MM via arbitration next year and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond that.

Going to Houston might be an especially good fit for him, given that most of his home run power comes via pulling the ball towards the field foul pole. As pointed out by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his home run total of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he played all his games in Houston and could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.

It’s still possible that Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes over to first base, since the club is also looking for help there, but time will tell how viable that is. Houston could find cheaper solutions at first base and leave Paredes at third for the next few seasons.

The acquisition of Smith also provides the Astros with a potential third baseman for the future. He was just drafted by the Cubs with the 14th overall pick a few months ago and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his professional debut, getting into 32 games across three different levels, finishing at Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years, with Paredes eventually getting moved across the diamond.

The Astros also add a bit of pitching depth in the deal via Wesneski. The 27-year-old has decent underlying rates thus far in his career but problems with the long ball have pushed lots of runs across the plate. In 190 innings thus far in his career, he has a 23% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. But 35 home runs, a rate of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he can be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service time and can therefore be retained for another five seasons.

The club has plenty of question marks with its pitching right now. Each of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgeries, so each of those guys is a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez is also a trade candidate in the same vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure salary and is one year away from free agency. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this year. Ronel Blanco was huge for Houston but is fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Arrighetti was decent in his rookie year but it’s hard to bank on him at this point.

In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is another trade candidate. He’s set to make $14MM next year, the final season of his deal. Wesneski has worked both as a starter and as a reliever in his career, so he can help Houston in either department.

For the Cubs, it’s a lot to give up, and that’s especially true when looking back to their acquisition of Paredes. They just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a few months ago, getting Paredes ahead of the summer deadline. In a sense, they have given up those three players plus Smith and Wesneski in order to get just one season of Tucker.

But there are good reasons why they have paid such a price. The club has been hovering around .500 in recent years, having a squad full of good players but lacking in truly elite ones. They also possess a very strong pipeline of prospects, several of whom are pushing for major league playing time. They have shown a reluctance to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade has seemed like the best way for them to upgrade the roster.

Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned, he has been one of the best position players in the majors recently and immediately becomes the best player for the Cubbies. Perhaps the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker but that would require a very notable contract, the kind they haven’t given out recently. Even if Tucker is only at Wrigley for one year, the Cubs will at least be able to recoup draft pick compensation by issuing him the qualifying offer after 2025.

In addition to that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is in the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the gas pedal next year and the Reds and Pirates still struggling to come out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step forward, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some extra job security.

It’s also possible that they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they make a lot of sense for Houston. As mentioned, the Cubs have an excellent farm system. On Baseball America’s Top 100, they currently have six players on the list, which doesn’t even include Smith. Though it surely hurts to give up their most recent first round pick, the farm is still in good shape overall.

That farm might also be able to provide an immediate Paredes replacement. One of the club’s top prospects is Matt Shaw, who has played a bit of middle infield but a bit more at third.  He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that may have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher but he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely kept in a swing role.

It’s a huge move for both clubs and will surely lead to more, especially for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield mix even before adding Tucker into it. They also have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, not to mention prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki both have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.

One way or another, a move from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been connected to both Tucker and Bellinger, so perhaps they will now focus more on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.

For the Astros, what’s still unknown is if the door is totally closed to Bregman. It certainly feels like that may be the case, though it’s not impossible to see a path back to Houston. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax number at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman would certainly push them over, though not by as much now that Tucker’s gone. They could also theoretically lower their number by trading Valdez or Pressly. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing a new deal with Bregman for two years without it happening, so perhaps this is the door finally closing.

It’s also unknown if Houston is content with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a strong hitter but often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are other options on the roster, along with utility types like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group obviously looks weaker without Tucker in it, so perhaps the Astros will look to bolster the group in the coming weeks and months.

Time will tell how the move plays out in the full offseason for both clubs. But for today, the Cubs have added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros have lost that huge talent but could have made up a decent amount of his value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long term.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros were “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was done.

Yankees Acquire Devin Williams For Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin

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The Winter Meetings might be done, but the big trades aren’t. The Yankees and Brewers on Friday agreed to a trade sending star closer Devin Williams to New York in exchange for left-hander Nestor Cortes, infield prospect Caleb Durbin and a reported $2MM in cash.

Both Williams and Cortes are entering their final seasons of club control, and both were projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in 2025. Milwaukee will still come out ahead a couple million dollars, which is of some moderate note, as the Brewers are working on an extremely tight budget this winter. Durbin, meanwhile, is a second baseman with experience at the hot corner. He was added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 protection deadline and is likely to slot in at second or third base in 2025, with one of Brice Turang or Joey Ortiz moving to shortstop in place of Willy Adames, who signed with the Giants as a free agent.

Williams, 30, is one of the game’s elite relievers. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year, he boasts a career 1.83 earned run average with 68 saves, 60 holds, a 39.4% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in his big league career. Command has been an issue at times (11.8% walk rate), but Williams’ utterly devastating changeup — nicknamed the “Airbender” — is one of the most dominant pitches in the entire sport. He’s finished off 2299 big league plate appearances with that pitch, during which opponents have posted a comically feeble .139/.223/.200. The pitch boasts a preposterous 23% swinging-strike rate.

Among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since 2019, Emmanuel Clase (1.67) is the only pitcher with a better ERA than Williams’ 1.83 mark. No other pitcher is within even 40 points. (Jacob deGrom is next, at 2.24.) In that same time, only Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz have posted higher strikeout rates than Williams’ 39.4%. Only Gerrit Cole has a higher mark in terms of win probability added. Hader is second in WPA among relievers, but his 12.46 mark isn’t close to Williams’ 14.24. Sports Info Solutions credits Williams’ changeup as far and away the most valuable pitch of its type in the majors.

Dominant as Williams has been, he’ll come to the Yankees with some recent injury concerns. A stress fracture in his lower back caused the right-hander to miss the first four months of the 2024 season. Williams wasn’t activated for his 2024 debut until July 28. Once healthy, he generally looked like his dominant self, rattling off 21 2/3 innings with a microscopic 1.25 ERA, a massive 43.2% strikeout rate and an unsightly 12.5% walk rate (that was largely mitigated by his near-unparalleled ability to rack up strikeouts). Of course, the lasting memory for many fans will unfortunately be the backbreaking three-run homer that Williams surrendered to Pete Alonso in Milwaukee’s NLDS loss to the Mets.

Similarly, one of Cortes’ final moments as a Yankee is one he’d like to forget. The left-hander served up a walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of the World Series — the first of four Gibson-esque home runs the hobbled L.A. first baseman swatted en route to World Series MVP honors. As with Williams, there are some notable 2024 health concerns; Cortes gutted his way through a late-season flexor strain to return to the Yankees in the postseason. Cortes was also limited to 12 starts in 2023, thanks to a strain in his rotator cuff. Clearly, both clubs are satisfied with the medical reports on the veterans they’re acquiring.

Cortes, who just turned 30, has been a rock-solid mid-rotation arm when healthy in recent seasons. Dating back to his 2021 breakout with the Yankees, he’s pitched 489 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. The ERA is skewed by the 4.97 mark he logged in ’23 when dealing with that shoulder strain, but Cortes has been quite effective in three of the past four seasons.

In 2024, Cortes pitched a career-high 174 1/3 innings while sitting a career-best 92.1 mph with his four-seamer. The lefty fanned 22.8% of his opponents and notched a career-best 5.5% walk rate. If he can deliver anything close to that, the Brewers will surely be thrilled. Adding to the rotation was a significant need for the Brewers this offseason, but they’ve been operating with minimal resources as they try to find creative ways to do so.

Cortes will give Milwaukee an experienced arm to slot in behind Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff (returning from 2023 shoulder surgery), Aaron Civale and diamond-in-the-rough Tobias Myers. The Brewers also have lefties Aaron Ashby and DL Hall as rotation candidates, plus young righties Carlos Rodriguez, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick on the 40-man roster but likely ticketed for Triple-A.

With a full, healthy season, there’s a chance Cortes is a more valuable pitcher on the whole than Williams. He’s been worth about 10 wins above replacement over the past four seasons, per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs (even when accounting for his poor showing in an injury-marred 2023 season). For the Yankees, however, he was no more than sixth or seventh on the depth chart — not with Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman all on the roster.

For the Yankees, the deal is about not only beefing up their bullpen during the regular season but more specifically about bolstering their postseason roster, where Williams would be a focal piece and Cortes would be relegated to a lower-leverage relief role. In that sense, there are some parallels with the 2022 Jordan Montgomery/Harrison Bader swap: ship out a starter who’s not in the playoff rotation in exchange for someone who’ll have greater impact on postseason results. In the end, the trade involves both teams dealing from areas of strength.

The Milwaukee bullpen, after all, was one of the best in baseball last season — even in a year where Williams missed two-thirds of the year. The Brewers’ collective 3.11 bullpen ERA ranked second in the sport, and they were top-10 in terms of FIP (3.78, seventh), walk rate (8.3%, ninth) and K-BB% (15.5, tenth). With Williams out of the picture, they’ll likely look to Trevor Megill (2.72 ERA, 27.3 K%), Joel Payamps (3.05 ERA, 25.1 K%) and Bryan Hudson (1.73 ERA, 26.8 K%) for late-inning work. The previously mentioned Ashby (1.37 ERA, 36.8 K%, 19 1/3 innings) and Hall (3.00 ERA, 26.5 K%, 12 innings) also looked impressive when working as relievers.

The other major piece of the puzzle for the Brewers, of course, is the 24-year-old Durbin. Milwaukee lost Adames to free agency this offseason and has been in search of infield help but with scant money to spend. Durbin could slot in at second or third base, with one of Ortiz or Turang sliding over to shortstop. He could also simply give the Brewers a versatile utility option with intriguing contact skills and speed.

Durbin, who came to the Yankees from the Braves in exchange for Lucas Luetge, spent the bulk of the 2024 season in Triple-A Scranton Wilkes/Barre. He missed more than two months after being hit by a pitch on the wrist in May, but when he was healthy he was quite impressive. An infielder from the Altuve mold, Durbin is listed at just 5’6″ but nevertheless hit .287/.396/.471 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers and 31 stolen bases in 82 Triple-A games (375 plate appearances). He walked more than he struck out, drawing a free pass in 12.5% of his plate appearances versus a 9.9% strikeout rate.

With Durbin having missed a notable chunk of the season, the Yankees sent him to the Arizona Fall League to pick up some extra reps. He thrived there, hitting .312/.427/.548 with another five home runs and an AFL-record 29 stolen bases in 24 games (117 plate appearances). As he did in Triple-A, Durbin recorded more walks (17) than strikeouts (six).

Durbin has yet to take a single big league plate appearance, but the success he’s had in Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League — coupled with the Brewers’ needs in the infield — give him a legitimate chance to break camp with the club. He might need to earn his way into a starting gig this spring, and his ultimate role will depend on any subsequent moves the Brewers make, but he’s very clearly an option to help the club in 2025. As it stands, he’s controllable through at least the 2030 season.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Yankees and Brewers were finalizing a Williams trade. Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the deal was in place. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Cortes was in the deal. Durbin’s inclusion was first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reported that there was cash in the deal, and Nightengale chimed in with the exact amount.

Cubs Sign Carson Kelly

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The Cubs finalized a two-year free agent deal with catcher Carson Kelly on Friday evening. The CAA client is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM with the chance to earn another $500K annually via incentives. Kelly will make $5MM salaries in each of the next two seasons and is guaranteed a $1.5MM buyout on a $7.5MM mutual option for 2027. He’d trigger a $250K bonus for starting 81 and 91 games in each season. Chicago already had a 40-man roster vacancy after dealing two roster players in this afternoon’s Kyle Tucker trade.

Kelly was the top unsigned catcher. The thin market has moved quickly. Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Higashioka, Gary Sánchez, Danny Jansen, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have all gotten MLB deals. Kelly joins Higashioka and d’Arnaud in securing a second guaranteed year and exceeding the $10MM mark.

The righty-swinging backstop had a nice year in 2024. Kelly started the season particularly well, hitting .240/.325/.391 with seven home runs in 203 trips to the plate for the Tigers. Detroit dealt him to the Rangers at the deadline. That was designed to give Kelly a chance to join a contender, but the Rangers sputtered while the Tigers made a surprise playoff push in the final couple months. Kelly’s bat tailed off after the move, as he hit .235/.291/.343 with two homers over 31 games as a Ranger.

That mediocre finish led Texas to pursue Higashioka instead. Still, Kelly’s combined .238/.313/.374 slash line in 313 plate appearances is solid work from a part-time catcher. Statcast graded him positively for his work behind the plate, crediting him with better than average framing and blocking metrics. While Kelly’s raw arm strength was middle of the pack, he cut down an above-average 26.3% of basestealers.

That was a rebound after Kelly had consecutive poor offensive showings in 2022 and ’23. He combined for a .210/.281/.320 slash between the Diamondbacks and Tigers. Kelly had intermittently shown the upside to be a true #1 catcher early in his career in Arizona. He has since settled in as a quality part-time player.

That’s the role he should play in Chicago. The Cubs can somewhat evenly divide playing time between Kelly and 25-year-old Miguel Amaya. A former top prospect, Amaya struggled early in the year before going on a tear in the final two months of the season. He ended the season with a .232/.288/.357 slash over 363 plate appearances. The strong finish wasn’t enough for the Cubs to forego the catching market entirely, yet it lessened their urgency to entertain trading from the top of the farm system for a clear starter.

Kelly’s salary bumps Chicago’s projected payroll to roughly $199MM, according to the calculations at RosterResource. The $5.75MM average annual value pushes their estimated competitive balance tax number to $215MM. That leaves them around $25MM below the base luxury tax threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported on Monday that the Cubs and Kelly were closing in on a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the presence of the ’27 mutual option and the potential $500K in annual incentives. Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic had the salary breakdown and specifics on the bonuses. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Yimi García

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed right-hander Yimi García to a two-year contract. It’s a $15MM deal, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). The 34-year-old is represented by the Nova Sports Agency.

The last time García was a free agent, he also signed with the Jays. Going into the 2022 season, he and the Jays agreed to a two-year deal with an $11MM guarantee, with that deal also having a club/vesting option for 2024.

At that time, García had just finished a strong three-year run split between the Dodgers, Marlins and Astros. He tossed 135 innings over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, allowing 3.53 earned runs per nine. He struck out 26.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 6.8% clip.

His first two years with the Jays saw him continue to pitch in roughly the same manner. He tossed 127 innings over 2022 and 2023 with a 3.61 ERA, 25.9% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. He racked up four saves and 41 holds for the Jays in that time and also vested his $6MM option along the way.

2024 was a bit of a mixed bag. García came out strong with a 0.47 ERA through his 19 innings, punching out 35.3% of batters faced. He even racked up five saves while closer Jordan Romano was battling injuries this year.

But García allowed seven earned runs in his next nine innings and then landed on the injured list in mid-June due to right elbow ulnar neuritis. He was activated from the IL in mid-July and traded to the Mariners shortly thereafter, with outfielder Jonatan Clase and catcher Jacob Sharp coming back the other way. He was only able to toss nine innings for Seattle down the stretch due to inflammation in his throwing elbow.

There’s clearly a bit of injury risk with García not pitching much in the second half of 2024, but the Jays know García well after spending most of the past three years with him. They clearly like the fit and have brought him back, now having received two younger players for the brief few months that they were apart from him.

Remaking the bullpen is a clear priority for the Jays, as the relief group fell apart in 2024 and was a key reason for their rough season. Toronto relievers had a collective 4.82 ERA in 2024, a mark that was worse than all clubs except for the Rockies. They cut ties with their long-time closer when they declined to tender Romano a contract for his final arbitration season and Romano has now signed with the Phillies. They also non-tendered Génesis Cabrera, who then signed a minor league deal with the Mets.

García should jump into the mix for leverage work in the Toronto bullpen alongside guys like Chad Green and Erik Swanson, though the Jays will likely make other bullpen moves before the offseason is done, with several free agents on their radar.

RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number at $210MM, which is $31MM below the base threshold of the tax. The Jays were over the line for much of the 2024 season but they are believed to have ducked under via their midseason selloff, which included García. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club should be working with similar financial parameters in 2025 so perhaps they would be willing to cross the tax line again in the coming season. They were heavily involved in the Juan Soto bidding but missed out there and now appear to be pivoting to other targets such as Max Fried and Corbin Burnes.

Agent Joel Wolfe On Roki Sasaki’s Free Agency

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Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman held court with the media at this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas to discuss a variety of topics, headlined by an overview of the plan for newly posted right-hander Roki Sasaki. MLBTR was on hand as Wolfe discussed Sasaki, the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, who is now eligible to negotiate with all major league teams.

Because of his age, Sasaki is subject to Major League Baseball’s international amateur guidelines; more specifically, that means he can only sign a minor league deal and receive a bonus that fits within his team’s league-allotted, hard-capped bonus pool. Had Sasaki waited two years to come to the majors, he’d have been 25 and thus qualified as an amateur, possibly setting him up for a contract rivaling that of countryman and current Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325MM).

Asked why Sasaki chose to seek a posting now rather than come to the majors as a true free agent in two years — potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Wolfe indicated he’d been asked that question “by everyone you can imagine” and attempted to answer to the best of his ability.

“It’s a difficult question to answer. Some of it is Japanese culture. Some of it is just Roki Sasaki. There are no absolutes in baseball and, through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life. … He does not take anything for granted. It is not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed, that two years from now he’s going to get a Yamamoto contract. Sometimes, baseball just doesn’t work out. You know, you look at the epidemic of injuries that pitchers suffer. You could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries. He’s had an oblique injury. Things may not go the way you want.

“The other thing is, it’s always been his dream to come to the major leagues, since he was in school. He’s grown up idolizing players like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is something he’s always wanted to do, and when he went to [the World Baseball Classic] and was around some of these major league players, it really rubbed off on him. He became sure that ’this is what I want to do as soon as possible.'”

With regard to what sort of factors Sasaki will prioritize in his free agency, Wolfe was more vague. He indicated that he and his client have yet to even discuss such factors at length, as Sasaki’s primary focus for so long has been on whether he’ll be posted at all. Wolfe noted that some teams have already submitted presentations for Sasaki but that in-person meetings have yet to begin. Wolfe himself said he’s seen “three or four” of the presentations that have been submitted but added that he expects more to file in. Asked how many teams scouted Sasaki this past season in Japan, Wolfe replied that at least half the league had done so.

Wolfe naturally declined to specify which teams had submitted initial presentations or scouted his client in person. The immediate focus for Sasaki will simply be learning about the teams, organizations and cities among which he’ll choose. He’s slated to arrive in the United States this week, and after reviewing the introductory presentations from interested teams, Sasaki and Wolfe will host teams for a first-round of in-person visits at a central location, beginning next week. Additional waves of team visits — perhaps some in the cities of the finalists — will take place down the road, but Sasaki also plans to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holidays.

Asked specifically whether Sasaki might consider a small market, Wolfe said he it could possibly be of interest but emphasized that he had not confirmed as much with his client:

“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think there’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him, as a soft landing, coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with the media — it might be. I’m not saying it will be, but I don’t know how he’s going to do it. It might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market, but I really don’t know how he looks at it yet because I haven’t had a chance and discuss it with him [at great length].”

Wolfe spoke at multiple points, once doing so unprompted, about the media coverage of Sasaki in Japan, labeling it “in my personal opinion, a bit unfair” and candidly acknowledging that at times it could have a negative impact on the young right-hander:

“There has been a lot of negativity in the media directed at him because he has expressed interest in going to play for MLB at such a young age. That’s considered in Japan to be very disrespectful and sort of swimming upstream. There’s been a lot of things. A lot of people jumped on board, creating false rumors about him and his family, and it was detrimental to his mental state.”

Wolfe also emphasized that wherever Sasaki lands, it won’t be a pure short-term financial decision:

“Given that the gap in bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice to him is: don’t make decisions based on that. The long-term arc of your career is where you’re going to earn your money, so it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision in that regard. Take all the factors into consideration.”

Sasaki was officially posted for major league teams on Dec. 9, kicking off a 45-day negotiating period for big league clubs. He’ll have to have a contract finalized by Jan. 23. Wolfe noted that the signing is expected to occur after Jan. 15, so it can fall under the purview of the 2025 international free agent period, which begins that day. While Sasaki’s decision won’t be a purely financial one, Wolfe specified that MLB wanted to ensure as much of a “level playing field” as possible and ensure that both Sasaki and his former team would get the most beneficial deal possible, which is the posting was formalized on Dec. 9, giving him the chance to extend his free agency into next year’s period — when all 30 MLB teams will have more international resources available.

It’ll be a tough pill for the Marines to swallow, regardless. Under the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB players’ former teams receive a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. In Yamamoto’s case, for instance, his former club received a mammoth $54.375MM release fee from the Dodgers for agreeing to let Yamamoto go. Since Sasaki will be signing for a hard-capped bonus that’ll likely come in south of $10MM, the Marines will probably receive a release fee under $2MM.

Sasaki has pitched in parts of four NPB seasons and tallied 414 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. Any team that signs him will have control of him for at least six seasons. He cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league deal, pursuant to attachment 46 of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, which indicates that any contracts deemed to be a circumvention of the CBA will not be permitted by the commissioner’s office. Wolfe noted that MLB teams cannot technically even promise Sasaki a spot on the big league roster when signing him, let alone broker an extension ahead of time at a to-be-determined date.

It’s possible, in theory, that Sasaki could sign an extension later in his young MLB career — likely more than a year or two down the road — but Wolfe pushed back on the notion that they’d even be amenable to that. “If he’s really, really good, the leverage would be on our side, so there wouldn’t be much incentive for us to sign a long-term extension.”

Rangers Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi

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Nathan Eovaldi is headed back to Texas. The Rangers finalized the right-hander’s three-year free agent deal on Thursday evening. It’s reportedly a $75MM guarantee for the ACES client.

The deal includes a $12MM signing bonus that’ll be paid in $6MM in installments after the 2026 and ’27 seasons. Eovaldi’s salaries for the next three years will be $18MM, $25MM and $20MM, respectively. The backloaded contract affords Texas some short-term payroll flexibility. Eovaldi also gets a full no-trade clause.

It’s a somewhat shocking contract for the right-hander in a hot pitching market that has exceeded expectations across the board. Eovaldi is the latest pitcher to beat early offseason projections, and his guarantee significant outpaces the two-year, $44MM pact that MLBTR predicted for the righty as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. The fact that the Rangers went to a third year in order to land Eovaldi is particularly noteworthy, as it’s just the third time since 2010 that a pitcher entering his age-35 season or later has landed a guarantee longer than two years according to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Rich Hill’s three-year pact with the Dodgers is nearly a decade old at this point, and good a pitcher as Eovaldi is, he’s not a Hall of Fame-caliber talent like Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom before him.

On the other hand, it’s worth pointing out that deGrom’s aforementioned contract was signed just two winters ago by the same Rangers club that has now brought Eovaldi back into the fold. That could suggest that Chris Young’s front office is simply more willing to roll the dice on aging pitchers they believe in compared to other organizations. If that’s the case, it’s certainly understandable that they’d choose Eovaldi to place that bet on. In his first two years with the club, the veteran right-hander provided much-needed stability to the club’s rotation with a 3.72 ERA (110 ERA+) and 3.86 FIP in 54 starts.

While those numbers may not immediately jump of the page, Eovaldi’s underlying metrics suggest he’s still among the better front-of-the-rotation options available this winter even as he starts to age. His 95.6mph average fastball velocity is still strong, and he’s still limiting walks (7.0% with the Rangers) and generating grounders (49.5% groundball rate) at a high clip. Those strong peripherals come in addition to his phenomenal resume in key moments. Eovaldi offered the Rangers a dominant six-start performance in the postseason as he helped lead the Rangers to the first World Series championship in franchise history back in 2023, when he pitched to a 2.95 ERA and struck out 26.8% of opponents in 36 2/3 innings of work to add to an impressive postseason resume from his years with the Red Sox.

It’s that stability the Rangers hope Eovaldi will continue to bring to the front of their rotation going forward. The club has a number of interesting options, ranging from the elite but oft-injured deGrom to exciting but unproven youngsters like Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. With Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney both ticketed for free agency this winter, however, the Rangers were left with zero pitchers who made even 20 starts for the club in 2024. That made adding a stable source of innings a priority for the club, and they’ve now done so by bringing Eovaldi back into the fold where he’ll head a rotation that also figures to feature some combination of deGrom, Rocker, Leiter, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Cody Bradford, and Dane Dunning. It’s possible they’ll continue to add to that rotation mix, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported in the aftermath of Eovaldi’s decision that the Rangers hope to add another starter in addition to bullpen help this winter.

Those pursuits could come amid a bit of a budget crunch for the club. Reporting early this offseason suggested that the club could look to duck under the luxury tax threshold this winter. With Eovaldi back in the fold, RosterResource projects the club for a payroll just north of $219MM for tax purposes in 2025. That leaves the club with around $21MM in breathing room before they go over the first threshold, which is set at $241MM. Adding multiple relievers and another starter in free agency could be a tall order with that limited budget room unless the club is willing to deal salary elsewhere, though the trade market could also represent a way to add pitching talent at a lower financial cost.

Turning to the pitching market as a whole, the majority of top free agent starters are off the market at this point. Right-handers Corbin Burnes and Jack Flaherty are still available in terms of potential front-of-the-rotation arms, while mid-rotation pieces Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta also remain available. Of that quartet, only Flaherty isn’t encumbered by a Qualifying Offer that would force acquiring clubs to forfeit draft capital and international bonus pool money in order to sign him. For clubs looking to avoid signing another club’s qualified free agent such as the Orioles, whiffing on Flaherty (and, in the case of Baltimore specifically, Burnes) would leave them forced to resort to back-end veterans such as Heaney and Jose Quintana or reclamation projects such as Walker Buehler in order to add starting pitching talent.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Rangers were re-signing Eovaldi. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the three-year, $75MM terms. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that it was a backloaded arrangement with an $18MM salary in year one. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the specific salary breakdown and the no-trade clause.

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