Rangers, Braves Swap Jake Odorizzi, Kolby Allard
The Rangers kicked off their search for rotation help Thursday evening, announcing the acquisition of right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. Atlanta receives lefty Kolby Allard in a one-for-one swap that also sees the Braves pay down a notable portion of Odorizzi’s salary. Atlanta will reportedly cover $10MM of his $12.5MM figure, which was locked in when the veteran starter exercised a player option for next year.
Going into 2021, Odorizzi signed a two-year, $23.5MM guarantee with the Astros with a convoluted structure. He received a $6MM signing bonus and $6MM salary in 2021, followed by a $5MM salary in 2022. That was to be followed by a $6.5MM player option with a $3.25MM buyout. However, there were also performance escalators that could increase the value of both the option and the buyout. Over the initial two years of the deal, if Odorizzi got into 20, 25 and 30 games, he would add $2MM to the salary and $1MM to the buyout at each of those milestones. He easily hit all three, getting into 46 games, maxing out the option value at $12.5MM.
Odorizzi posted a 4.21 ERA with Houston in 2021 and then had a 3.75 mark at the deadline when he was traded to Atlanta for Will Smith. Unfortunately, the uniform switch didn’t help him, as he posted a 5.24 mark after the deal. He also had a 6.59 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, meaning he hasn’t seen strong results over the past three years. Though he had a 27.1% strikeout rate in 2019, he’s been hovering around 20% since then, a few ticks below league average.
Atlanta was clearly not terribly excited about the idea of paying him $12.5MM, based both on their tight payroll situation and Odorizzi’s results. He likely isn’t one of their five best starters anyway, as they have Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Strider for the first four spots, with Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller and Jared Shuster candidates for the fifth. They’ll pick up only $2.5MM in salary relief, but the deal clears a path for some of their younger arms to compete for a back-of-the-rotation job.
The Rangers are in need of rotation upgrades after getting poor results in that department in 2022. Texas starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA this year, placing them 25th in the majors. They got some decent work from Jon Gray and a career year from veteran Martín Pérez, though Pérez has now reached free agency and deprived the already-weak rotation of its strongest performer. There’s reportedly mutual interest in a reunion, though nothing has been finalized yet and the club is now likely to extend him a $19.65MM qualifying offer.
With Pérez still in the wind, that leaves Texas with Gray and a host of question marks behind him. Dane Dunning was decent enough, posting a 4.46 ERA this year over 29 starts. However, his season was finished by hip surgery and it’s unclear what condition he’ll be in next year. Glenn Otto made 27 starts and posted an ERA of 4.64. The club also gave a handful of starts to Taylor Hearn, Cole Ragans and Spencer Howard, though they all posted an ERA of 4.95 or higher. Given all that uncertainty, it would be logical for them to consider any and all avenues to upgrade the staff, with general manager Chris Young saying basically that at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas this week, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. That will apparently include giving Odorizzi a shot to produce some better results.
In addition to clearing a bit of salary off the books, Atlanta will receive another arm in Allard. The 25-year-old was actually drafted by Atlanta in the first round back in 2015 but went to the Rangers in 2019 in exchange for Chris Martin. He’s pitched in each of the past five MLB seasons but has a career 6.07 ERA. He has decent control with a 7.8% walk rate in his career, though his 18.6% strikeout rate and 37.8% ground ball rate are both subpar. He had been part of the Ranger rotation from 2019-21 but got bumped to bullpen work in 2022. The move didn’t help him, as he put up a 7.29 ERA over 21 innings out of the ‘pen.
In the end, it seems both teams are giving up on pitchers that weren’t in their plans going forward. Texas is desperate for rotation stability and will see if Odorizzi can provide it, with Atlanta helping them pay the bill. It’s likely to be one of several moves to address the starting staff as they look to emerge from their years-long rebuild. For Atlanta, they are sending away some cash but will at least save a couple of bucks as they look to revamp and try to win a sixth straight NL East title.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report the Braves were paying $10MM of Odorizzi’s salary.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rangers Offered Martin Perez Two-Year Contract, Expected To Extend Qualifying Offer
The Rangers have offered left-hander Martín Pérez a two-year contract with an option for the 2025 campaign, reports Jeff Wilson. While Wilson characterizes the sides as “not too far apart,” he notes Texas is expected to tag Pérez with a $19.65MM qualifying offer tomorrow with no multi-year deal in place.
That meshes with a report from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who called a QO for Pérez “likely” yesterday. Texas general manager Chris Young has indicated the team is considering a QO but has thus far not made any definitive statement about the team’s course of action. If the Octagon client were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere, the Rangers would pick up a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) next summer.
Assuming the Rangers go through with the QO, Pérez will have ten days to gauge interest from other teams before deciding whether to accept. A $19.65MM salary would easily be the highest single-season salary in the southpaw’s career, well above this year’s $4MM figure. That possible raise, of course, is a reflection of his All-Star 2022 campaign. The 31-year-old soaked up 196 1/3 innings through 32 starts, pitching to a 2.89 ERA while racking up grounders at a strong 51.4% clip.
That durability and reliability was particularly valuable to a Texas team that otherwise had a lackluster starting staff. Jon Gray was effective when healthy but battled some injury concerns during his first year in Arlington. Dane Dunning was a useful back-of-the-rotation arm, but the rest of Texas’ starters were inconsistent or ineffective. It’s little surprise the Rangers would look to keep Pérez around with the rotation presenting their biggest need, but there’s also reason to question how replicable his 2022 success may be.
Pérez had bounced around a bit in recent years. A top prospect early in his days with Texas, he had a decent age-22 campaign in 2013 but never took the anticipated jump to the top or middle of a rotation. Pérez posted an ERA above 4.30 every year between 2014-21, eventually moving from Texas to Minnesota to Boston. He consistently racked up innings and did a nice job keeping the ball on the ground, but his lack of missed bats limited his upside. Upon returning to the Rangers this year, he made some small tweaks to his repertoire, leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against left-handers and turning to his sinker more frequently against righties. However, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, nor were his underlying metrics too different from those of prior seasons.
His 20.6% strikeout rate was a career-high, but it was still a bit lower than the league mark. He got swinging strikes on only 8.4% of his offerings, a figure right in line with his 2020-21 clips. Pérez’s ground-ball rate bounced back to peak levels after a recent dip, but he’s posted back-of-the-rotation numbers while getting worm-burners half the time in the past. Much of his success was reliant on surrendering just one homer for every 18 innings pitched, the third-lowest rate among qualified starters and one he’s likely to have trouble sustaining over multiple years.
Financial terms of Texas’ offer aren’t clear, although that they seemingly didn’t put forth a guaranteed three-year proposal appears to reflect the front office’s balancing of those considerations. There’s no question Pérez was immensely valuable for the club in 2022, and Texas has made no secret about their hunt for quality starting pitching. At the same time, expecting him to consistently perform at or near this year’s level without a massive spike in velocity or whiffs nor a dramatic overhaul to his pitch usage is probably unrealistic.
Regardless of whether Pérez accepts the qualifying offer or the sides do wind up working out a multi-year deal, the front office will continue its search for rotation help. Young told reporters yesterday the team was “going to explore all ends of the (free agent) market” for starting pitching and expressed a willingness to add arms via trade (link via Levi Weaver of the Athletic). Texas took a step in solidifying the rotation this evening, sending Kolby Allard to Atlanta for Jake Odorizzi. With the Braves paying down Odorizzi’s contract to just $2.5MM, that represented a low-cost move for capable back-of-the-rotation innings, and there’s no question the Rangers will continue their search for higher-impact arms over the coming months.
Shoulder Surgery Under Consideration For Blake Treinen
Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen battled shoulder discomfort in 2022 and missed the bulk of his year. Unfortunately, that remains a problem heading into the offseason, and it seems as if the injury will carry into next season.
L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this evening the team and Treinen are still working through treatment possibilities. While Gomes characterized surgery as one of multiple options under consideration, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register ominously reports that a procedure is “likely.” If Treinen did have to go under the knife, Plunkett adds, he’d require a 10-month recovery period and thus miss most or all of the 2023 campaign.
Treinen was limited to just five regular season appearances this year. He was on the injured list from April to September. Reinstated at the start of September, he made just two appearances before going back on the IL. The Dodgers activated Treinen for the postseason, calling upon him just once.
The injuries that caused that stop-and-start remain a concern, and Plunkett writes that both Treinen’s rotator cuff and labrum would be fixed if he goes under the knife. That’s certainly not what the Dodgers envisioned when signing the right-hander to an $8MM contract for 2023 in May. That deal also contains a club option for the 2024 campaign that’d be valued anywhere between $1MM and $7MM depending upon Treinen’s health for next season. Obviously, surgery wiping out much or all of his season — if necessary — would make it unlikely the Dodgers would trigger the option.
During his last healthy season, the veteran sinkerballer was one of the sport’s top late-game arms. The former All-Star worked to a 1.99 ERA across 72 1/3 innings in 2021, racking up grounders at a 52.6% clip.
Dodgers Considering Qualifying Offer For Tyler Anderson
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, there’s a “good chance” the Dodgers will extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to left-hander Tyler Anderson.
Teams have until 4pm Central on Thursday to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, giving the Dodgers about 24 hours left to make a final decision. If they indeed extend the offer to Anderson, he will have 10 days to talk to other teams and decide whether to accept it or turn it down.
The fact that Anderson is even a candidate for the offer speaks to what an incredible breakout season he had in 2022. Coming into the year, he had a career 4.62 ERA and fairly average peripherals with a 20.5 strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 39.1% ground ball rate. The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $8MM deal for his age-32 season.
That turned out to be a tremendous bargain for the club, as Anderson’s work in Dodger blue far surpassed any of his previous seasons. He appeared in 30 games and tossed 178 2/3 innings with an incredible 2.57 ERA, barely half of his previous average. His rate stats were still fairly similar to his previous ones, though he did drop his walk rate to a stingy 4.8%.
Where he seems to have made strides was inducing poor contact from opposing hitters. He was in the 98th percentile in terms of hard hit rate, going from 33% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022. His average exit velocity was also 98th percentile while his chase rate was 95th and his barrel rate was 86th. At least part of this could be credited to his changeup, which he threw 31.6% percent of the time compared to just 24.6% of the time in 2021.
Regardless of how he did it, the improvements are enough that the Dodgers are considering a salary more than double what they paid a year ago. If Anderson were to turn down the offer and sign elsewhere, they would be entitled to draft pick compensation. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax in 2022, their pick would be pushed back until after the fourth round. A signing team would also be subject to the forfeit of at least one pick, with other penalties on the table as well, depending on whether the team was a CBT payer or revenue sharing recipient.
Whether Anderson would accept the offer or not is an interesting question. On the one hand, this is likely his best chance at earning a hefty multi-year paycheck, since he’s coming off a season that could well be the best of his career. On the other hand, he never had a salary above $2.5MM prior to getting the $8MM from the Dodgers a year ago. If he suddenly had a $19.65MM offer on the table, it would likely be hard to turn it down. Based on his excellent campaign, plenty of teams would be interested in signing him, though having to surrender at least one draft pick would temper their offers to some degree.
James Paxton Exercises Player Option
The Red Sox announced that lefty James Paxton has triggered his $4MM player option, sticking with the club for 2023.
Paxton, 34, has oscillated back and forth in his career between excellent results and injury setbacks. He was drafted by the Mariners and pitched for them from 2013 to 2018. In those six seasons, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.90 but also never stayed healthy for a full season, topping out at 28 starts and 160 1/3 innings in his last year in Seattle. After being traded to the Yankees prior to 2019, he had another solid season, though again limited by injuries. He made 29 starts for the Yanks and tossed 150 2/3 innings, posting an ERA of 3.82.
The injury issues have only gotten worse since then, as the lefty was limited to just five starts and 20 1/3 innings in 2020 due to a left flexor strain. He reached free agency after that campaign and signed a deal to return to Seattle for 2021. He made only one appearance, throwing just 1 1/3 innings, before being shut down and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.
Going into 2022, his status was uncertain. He was definitely going to miss some time, but it was possible he could be recovered from the TJS in time to contribute to a team down the stretch. He and the Sox agreed to a convoluted deal that reflected that uncertainty. Paxton earned a $6MM salary in 2022, with the convoluted part coming after that. First, the Red Sox would have to decide whether or not to trigger a two-year club option that would pay Paxton $26MM, with a $13MM salary in both 2023 and 2024. If they declined, Paxton would have the ability to trigger a one-year, $4MM option for 2023.
That structure seemed to take into account the wide variance of potential outcomes. If Paxton were able to return and show some of his previous excellent results, the Sox would be rewarded for taking the gamble by getting to lock him down for another two years. If things went the other way, their obligations would be significantly less but Paxton had a safety net in there for himself.
The latter scenario was what ended up happening in 2022, as Paxton suffered a lat strain during his rehab and never made it back to the active roster. Now the southpaw is in the position of having missed an entire season as well as only logging 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons combined. That made it a fairly easy call for Boston to turn down their option as opposed to committing to Paxton for another two years. That decision was indeed confirmed on Monday.
That put the onus on Paxton to decide whether or not to lock in a $4MM guarantee for 2023. On the one hand, after three straight effectively lost seasons, it’s probably difficult to turn down cash on the barrel like that. On the other hand, Paxton got himself a $10MM guarantee last offseason when it was known that he was going to miss at least part of the year. In the end, he decided to opt for the proverbial bird in the hand as opposed to seeing what other creative deals he could find on the open market.
This decision could potentially work out for both parties in 2023, given the uncertainty in the Boston rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill have just become free agents, leaving some big holes in the rotation. Chris Sale declined his opt-out and will remain with the club next year, though he’s tough to rely on right now. Similar to Paxton, various injuries have limited him to 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons. He will surely have a role but might not be able to log over 200 frames like he has done in the past. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the most reliable member for next year, with some wild card options like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello in the mix.
With all of that uncertainty, it’s likely that Paxton will be given a chance to make some starts and re-establish his health before returning to the open market a year from now. For the Sox, they will get a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice that would certainly be worth the modest $4MM figure if Paxton’s health can cooperate.
Dusty Baker Will Return As Astros Manager In 2023
November 9: The Astros and owner Jim Crane have made it official, announcing that Baker will return on a one-year contract for 2023.
November 8, 5:35 pm: Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays word from Click, who says he is still “in discussions” about his future.
4:45 pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Baker and Click each received one-year contracts for 2023.
9:33 am: Fresh off his the first World Series title of his illustrious managerial career, Dusty Baker confirmed to Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 that he’ll return to the team in 2023 (Twitter link). A deal has not yet been finalized, but Baker tells Berman: “I’ll be back, but we’re working on it. It’s as simple as that.”
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported shortly before Baker’s quote that Astros owner Jim Crane has already spoken to both Baker and general manager James Click about their futures and is planning to formally extend them contract offers for the 2023 season.
Named Houston’s manager in the immediate aftermath of punishments being meted out from the team’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal, Baker took the reins in a tumultuous situation and has seamlessly overseen not only a stabilizing period for the franchise but a continuous run of success. He’s now been at the helm of the Astros for the past three seasons, compiling a 230-154 record in that time, winning a pair of American League pennants and, just this weekend, adding another World Series title to the record books.
Baker has helped to oversee the breakout of one of baseball’s best young pitching staffs, serving as skipper while Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy have all established themselves as quality MLB hurlers — with Valdez, in particular, blossoming to the point that he ought to finish in the top five of this year’s American League Cy Young voting (though teammate Justin Verlander will be the favorite to win the award).
The 2022 season not only brought Baker his first World Series win as a manager but also saw him eclipse the 2000-win mark, making him just the 12th person to ever reach that milestone. Baker’s 2093 managerial wins currently place him ninth all-time, but another go-around in Houston will afford him the opportunity to take aim at Joe McCarthy (2125 wins), Bucky Harris (2158 wins) and Sparky Anderson (2194 wins) next season.
Baker would need a 102-win campaign to surpass Anderson and move into sole possession of sixth-place on the all-time list, but given the quality of the Houston core, that’s hardly an unattainable goal. His Astros just won 106 games in 2022, after all, and the team’s only free agent of true note is Verlander, who’ll surely be a target if and when he declines his player option and returns to the open market.
As for Click, there’s been a good bit of speculation about his future with the team amid multiple reports of friction between him and Crane. It’d be a surprise to see any team move on from its top baseball operations executive on the heels of a World Series victory, however, so it seems that even if the two parties don’t always see eye to eye, Crane will offer Click the opportunity to return on a new contract for at least the 2023 campaign. That forthcoming offer, of course, doesn’t necessarily guarantee that Click will return, but it’s nevertheless of clear note that Crane will at least ostensibly place the ball in his GM’s court.
Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger
The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.
Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.
He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.
That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.
The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.
It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.
He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.
Dodgers Decline Club Option On Jimmy Nelson
The Dodgers announced that they have declined their 2023 club option on right-hander Jimmy Nelson. They could have retained him at a $1.1MM salary but will instead let him return to the open market. There was no buyout attached to the option.
Nelson spent many years as a starter with the Brewers before being derailed by injuries. He missed the 2018 and 2020 seasons entirely and only threw 22 innings in 2019, putting up a 6.95 ERA in that brief window when he was healthy.
However, he seemed to get things back on track with the Dodgers in 2021. He made 28 appearances that season, throwing 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA. He walked 11.9% of batters faced but struck out 37.9% of them, well above that year’s 24% average for relievers. Unfortunately, that strong bounceback season was cut short when Nelson required Tommy John and flexor repair surgery in August.
Despite the surgery, the Dodgers re-signed him for the 2022 campaign, knowing he was unlikely to contribute that season. He received a league-minimum $700K salary while rehabbing, with the Dodgers able to trigger the $1.1MM option for 2023. The league minimum salary is jumping to $720K next year, meaning that $1.1MM figure is only $380K above. For a team that’s typically among the biggest spenders in the league, that would be a small risk to take on a pitcher who was so dominant when last healthy. However, the club has opted not to take that chance.
There’s no financial risk here for the Dodgers, since there is no buyout on the option. Their only risk is losing Nelson to a rival team now that he has the ability to pursue offers from all 29 other clubs. Though it’s also possible that he and the club could reconnect on another deal.
AJ Pollock To Decline Player Option
White Sox outfielder AJ Pollock is declining his $13MM player option, per Buster Olney of ESPN, instead taking the $5MM buyout and returning to free agency.
The decision comes as something of a surprise since Pollock is coming of a noticeable down year in 2022. Going into 2019, he and the Dodgers agreed to a four-year, $60MM contract that came with a $10MM player option for 2023 or a $5MM buyout. That $10MM salary could be increased by $1MM for Pollock hitting 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances in 2022, maxing out at $15MM. Since Pollock got to 527 plate appearances on the year, he added $3MM to his potential total, though it ended up being a moot point since he is taking the buyout.
For the first three years of that deal, Pollock was excellent at the plate, hitting 52 total home runs and producing a batting line of .282/.337/.519. That production was 25% above league average, as evidenced by his 125 wRC+. The Dodgers traded him to the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel going into 2022, which precipitated a downturn at the plate. For the Sox this year, Pollock hit just .245/.292/.389 for a wRC+ of 92, or 8% below league average.
He also seems to have lost a step, which isn’t surprising as he’s about to turn 35. He’s racked up double-digit steals in multiple seasons, including 39 in 2015. However, his last time getting into two-figure territory was 2018 and he only swiped three bags here in 2022. Advanced defensive metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average also considered him to be average or below in the field this year.
If there’s one thing Pollock has going for him is that he still mashes lefties. His career batting line with the platoon advantage is .285/.335/.533, leading to a wRC+ of 129, compared to a 107 against righties. That split was even more pronounced in 2022, with Pollock hitting .286/.316/.619 against southpaws, leading a wRC+ 161 compared to a 69 against northpaws. 11 of his 14 home runs came against lefties despite getting only about a quarter of his plate appearances against them.
Whether that’s enough for Pollock to come out ahead in the end remains to be seen. Joc Pederson was coming off a somewhat similar down year in 2021 when he had to settle for a one-year, $6MM deal with the Giants for 2022. Pederson also has strong platoon splits for his career, but could play fairly regularly against right-handers since he hits from the left side. If any team has interest in Pollock for a platoon role, he would have less value since there are fewer lefties for him to play against.
For the White Sox, this removes one option from an outfield that’s in flux for 2022. Andrew Vaughn has been playing on the grass a lot despite being a natural first baseman. He had a nice season at the plate but was one of the worst defensive outfielders in the league by most measures. The club is reportedly leaning towards letting Jose Abreu depart in free agency, opening things up for Vaughn to return to first base. Pollock’s departure removes another corner option from the calculus. That leaves the oft-injured Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez as their primary remaining outfielders, though they also have Adam Engel, Gavin Sheets and Mark Payton on the roster. Even with Pollock around, it seemed that the Sox were a good candidate to look for outfield upgrades and his exodus should only increase the chances of them looking for additions there.
Brewers Exercise Kolten Wong’s Club Option
The Milwaukee Brewers are picking up their club option on Kolten Wong, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. They will pay him a $10MM salary in 2023 instead of the $2MM buyout.
While most option decisions have a fairly obvious outcome, Wong’s was one of the few that was actually sort of difficult to predict. Long a defensive stalwart, he had perhaps his greatest offensive season in 2022 but took an odd step back in terms of his glovework. Faced with a net $8MM decision, it seems the Brewers have deemed Wong worthy of another go and have triggered his option for 2023.
The 32-year-old was drafted by the Cardinals and spent the first eight seasons of his career there from 2013 to 2020. He was fairly dependable in that regard, providing solid work on the dirt while hitting near a league-average level. Outside of his 2013 debut, he posted a wRC+ between 85 and 109 in each of his seasons in St. Louis, with 100 being the average mark. He never hit for much power, maxing out at 12 home runs as a single-season high as a Cardinal. However, he never struck out more than 16.4% of the time in that stretch and often proved a threat on the basepaths.
On the defensive side of things, Wong generally received positive reviews from the advanced metrics. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a positive number in each season from 2014 to 2020 except for 2017, with the highest being a 17 in 2019. That was easily the highest among second basemen that season, with Enrique Hernández coming in second at 12. Ultimate Zone Rating considered 2018 to be his standout campaign, giving him a 13.4 that year, nudging out DJ LeMahieu for the league lead at the keystone.
Prior to the 2016 season, he and the Cardinals agreed to a five-year extension that came with a $12.5MM option for 2021 with a $1MM buyout. Somewhat surprisingly, the Cards opted for the buyout and sent Wong to free agency, where he landed a two-year, $18MM guarantee from the Brewers with the option for 2023. Since coming to Milwaukee, Wong has had two consecutive above-average seasons at the plate, putting together a cumulative batting line of .262/.337/.439 for a wRC+ of 113. He’s found a little extra power, hitting 14 homers in 2021 and 15 in 2022 after never getting above 12 in previous seasons. He’s also continued to have his speed, swiping 29 bases over the past two years, including 17 in 2022.
As mentioned earlier, Wong’s typically strong defense took a turn for the worse in 2022. In terms of traditional stats, his 17 errors tied a career high from back in 2015. The advanced metrics weren’t keen either, with Wong pegged at a -1 DRS, -4.7 UZR and -9 Outs Above Average. “Defensively, it just wasn’t even my year,” Wong told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last month, before acknowledging that the club’s large arbitration class and impending arrival of prospect Brice Turang might lead to the Brewers choosing the buyout. “I’ve been a free agent one time already and it’s not the most enjoyable thing,” Wong added. “If I got to go through it again, it is what it is. It will be interesting to see where I’d end up landing. Milwaukee was a choice that I kind of had in mind going into free agency as a high pick for me. This next one, I just kind of want to keep an open mind and see how it goes.”
It seems Wong won’t have to worry about free agency for now, as the Brewers have decided he’s worth the $8MM investment. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel spoke to Wong, who said the he is “stoked” about the decision, before going on to detail that his legs weren’t 100% healthy in 2022, which contributed to his defensive shortcomings (Twitter links).