Yankees To Make Qualifying Offer To Anthony Rizzo
The Yankees are expected to make a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Qualifying offers are due Thursday of this week. Rizzo will then have 10 days to gauge interest around the league before determining whether to accept or decline his QO. If he accepts, he’ll be considered signed as a free agent (and thus unable to be traded until June 15, 2023, without his consent). If he rejects the QO, he’ll become a free agent but will be tied to draft pick compensation — meaning a new team would need to surrender a pick(s) in next summer’s draft in order to sign him.
For Rizzo, declining his $16MM player option was a straightforward decision, even if he hopes to remain in the Bronx. Declining the option put the onus on the team to make this offer — which represents a $3.65MM raise over what he’d have earned by exercising the player option. And, had the team unexpectedly opted not to put forth a QO, he’d surely have been able to earn more than the year and $16MM value of his player option as a free agent with no draft strings attached.
Similarly, it’s an obvious call for the Yankees to make. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 and tied a career-high 32 home runs in just 548 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. That .224 average was obviously a fair bit south of the .243 leaguewide average, but Rizzo’s walk rate and power output were vastly better than that of your average big league hitter.
Rizzo also turned in a better-than-average 18.4% strikeout rate, and with some limitations on infield shifts looming in 2023, it stands to reason that Rizzo could see a few more grounders break through the right side of the infield to help him find a few more singles and boost that average next year. Based on Rizzo’s 2022 output, the Yankees would surely be content to have him accept and return at a slightly larger rate of pay.
Rizzo found a two-year, $32MM deal with an opt-out/player option in free agency this past offseason, and that was on the heels of a .248/.344/.440 campaign that was noticeably less productive than his 2022 season. Granted, he’ll now have a QO with which to contend and is a year older, but he could still parlay the offer into a new two-year deal with the Yanks that could perhaps clock in below the QO rate but at or slightly above the $16MM he’d have otherwise earned.
Teams could very well be reluctant to part with a draft pick (or picks) in order to sign a first baseman to a contract beginning with his age-33 season, but the previously mentioned 10-day window will give Rizzo and his reps the chance to determine how receptive other teams might be to such an arrangement. At the very least, Rizzo’s decision to decline his $16MM player option has netted him the opportunity to lock in an additional $3.65MM in 2023.
Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura
As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.
The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.
The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.
Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.
There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.
The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.
Anthony Rizzo Declines Player Option With Yankees
NOVEMBER 7: Rizzo has officially exercised his opt-out clause, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com.
NOVEMBER 4: Aaron Judge will understandably dominate most Yankee-centric headlines for the foreseeable future, but he’s not the only pinstriped slugger who’ll have the opportunity to field interest from other clubs this offseason. First baseman Anthony Rizzo‘s two-year, $32MM contract with the Yankees contained even salaries of $16MM per year and allows the longtime Cubs star to decline a 2023 player option and return to the open market if he chooses. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Rizzo is planning to do just that, which isn’t a huge surprise given the season that Rizzo put together in the Bronx.
Rizzo, 33, did post a low batting average but piled up walks and extra-base hits en route to a .224/.338/.480 batting line through 548 trips to the plate in 2022. He slugged 32 home runs, knocked 21 doubles and even chipped in a triple and six stolen bases. His 18.4% strikeout rate was his highest since 2014 but was still well shy of the 22.4% league average. Similarly, his 10.6% walk rate was a good bit higher than the league-average mark of 8.2%. All in all, wRC+ (which adjusts for his home park and league-wide offensive environment) pegged Rizzo’s bat at 32% better than an average hitter.
On the defensive side of the coin, Rizzo’s once-sterling defensive grades have taken a tumble, but not to the point where he ought to be considered a liability. He checked in with negative marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-2) but did so over the course of more than 1000 innings. Rizzo has battled back injuries the past couple seasons, which could help to explain some of the downturn with the glove. He received an epidural injection this summer and later began experiencing migraines, which cost him a couple weeks of action. Rizzo went 3-for-6 with a homer in his return contest following that IL stint.
Rizzo played in 11 fewer games in 2022 than in 2021, but at least with regard to his offensive performance, his 2022 season was better across the board. He had slightly more strikeouts but showed substantially more power (.256 ISO to .192), hitting more home runs in fewer plate appearances (32 vs. 22) and walking more often (10.6% vs. 9%). Overall, it was his best offensive showing since 2019. Though he will be another year older in 2023, the incoming ban on defensive shifts should benefit him. As a left-handed hitter without much speed, some of his grounders that were easy outs in 2022 could turn into singles going forward.
Given that this year’s production rather handily outpaced his 2021 output, there’s little reason to think Rizzo shouldn’t be able to expect at least the same type of two-year, $32MM pact he signed with the Yankees last offseason. The one scenario that might impact his earning power would be if he were to opt out and be saddled with a qualifying offer, but the $19.65MM value of this year’s QO represents a noticeable bump from the $16MM he’s scheduled to earn in 2023. Rizzo would be wise to decline the player option if only to push the Yankees to make that QO and put himself in a position to secure that raise. If they don’t make the QO, then another two- or even three-year deal could well be present for the slugger in free agency.
Bowden suggests that Rizzo would like to return to the Bronx on a longer deal. If that interest is reciprocated by the club, perhaps they could work something out even if the QO is involved. Such a scenario played out a few years ago when the White Sox gave a QO to Jose Abreu, who accepted it, but then they agreed to a three-year deal about a week later.
The Yankees have a good deal of uncertainty with their infield picture for next year, with not many players locked in. Josh Donaldson had a rough year at the plate and is about to turn 37, making it possible the Yanks look to move on from the last year of his contract. Gleyber Torres was decent at second but should see his contract rise to the $10MM range via arbitration. He’s still worth an investment like that but the club could also look to trade him and devote those resources to other parts of the roster. DJ LeMahieu should factor in here somewhere but he finished 2022 on the IL and will turn 35 next year. He’s probably best suited to a utility role as opposed to an everyday gig. Shortstop is a big mystery with Isiah Kiner-Falefa having a generally solid season with the glove but a few errors in the postseason cost him some playing time. There are youngsters available to take his job in Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera and Anthony Volpe but none of those guys have proven themselves locks to be MLB-capable just yet.
If Rizzo does indeed trigger his opt-out, it would create one more issue for the Yankees to deal with on the dirt. If they are able to give him a contract that entices him to stay, it would be one step towards stabilizing things. If the parties can’t find common ground, the alternatives available to the Yankees on the free agent market include Abreu, Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, among others.
Minasian: Angels Will Not Trade Shohei Ohtani This Offseason
Angels general manager Perry Minasian informed reporters this evening that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will open the 2023 season in Anaheim (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). The Angels are not giving any consideration to trading Ohtani, according to Minasian.
“Ohtani is not getting moved,” the GM told reporters. “He’s going to be here. He’ll be with us to start the season. I know there’s been rumors and all types of things, but he will be here. He’ll be part of the club. I said this before and I’ll say it again: We love the player. I think our goal is for him to be here for a long time.”
It’s a wholly unsurprising sentiment, as the Angels never seemed all that likely to move the 2021 AL MVP. Despite what would’ve surely been massive interest at this past summer’s trade deadline, Anaheim took Ohtani off the market almost immediately. Reports later indicated owner Arte Moreno directed his front office not to deal the two-time All-Star.
A few weeks later, Moreno announced he’s been exploring the possibility of selling the franchise. That process was reportedly already underway by the time the trade deadline rolled around, and the possibility of marketing an Ohtani-fronted roster to potential buyers figured to have played a role in the owner’s thinking. There hasn’t been much recent word on the sale process, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post reiterated last week that Moreno plans to go through with the sale.
The sale exploration could take most or all of the offseason, leaving the franchise in a state of uncertainty. The Halos are coming off a 73-89 season that marked their seventh straight below-average campaign. Anaheim dismissed Joe Maddon midseason and replaced him with Phil Nevin, but the managerial swap failed to reinvigorate a team that collapsed after a strong first month and a half. Minasian and his front office staff will set to work on trying to build around a core led by Ohtani and Mike Trout. The Halos have a promising rotation front four in Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, but they’re lacking in bullpen depth and don’t have much in the way of lineup certainty beyond Trout, Ohtani and, to a lesser extent, right fielder Taylor Ward.
How much money Moreno’s willing to allocate to build out a roster with which he’s ostensibly parting in the coming months is a question that looms over the offseason. The Angels opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the $188MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, the Halos have roughly $145.5MM in commitments on next year’s books. That includes salaries at or in excess of $30MM for each of Anthony Rendon, Trout and Ohtani.
The latter commitment was agreed upon last month, when the Angels and Ohtani agreed to a $30MM deal for his final season of club control. That set the record for the largest salary for an arbitration-eligible player in major league history, quickly foreclosing any possibility the parties would go to a hearing over his 2023 salary. There’s no indication they’ve recently discussed a longer-term deal, and Ohtani’s presently on track to be the top free agent in next winter’s class.
Minasian and company would surely love to keep the unique talent in Orange County for the long haul, but it remains to be seen if the 28-year-old is eager to engage in extension talks with the franchise’s present uncertainty. Fans of other teams will surely hold out hope the Angels change course in their resistance to dealing Ohtani, perhaps pointing to the other franchise currently up for sale as a hoped-for example. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo went on record in June to say the team would not trade Juan Soto, but they reconsidered and ultimately moved him at the deadline after Soto declined what proved to be their final long-term extension offer. That said, it’s generally rare to hear a baseball operations leader formally close the book on any potential roster maneuver, and it’d now register as great a surprise as ever if Ohtani is wearing anything other than an Angel uniform on Opening Day.
White Sox Exercise Tim Anderson’s Club Option, Decline Option On Josh Harrison
TODAY: The White Sox officially announced that Anderson’s option has been exercised. In addition, the Sox announced that they declined their $5.5MM club option on Josh Harrison, instead paying the veteran a $1.5MM buyout.
NOVEMBER 6: The White Sox intend to pick up shortstop Tim Anderson‘s $12.5MM club option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.
As recently discussed in Tim Dierkes’ Offseason Outlook, the decision to pick up Anderson’s club option was relatively easy, as the two-time All-Star has been a strong shortstop when healthy. However, Anderson has had a tough time staying on the field. Since 2019, the 29-year-old has dealt with a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, and a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger. Furthermore, since 2019 Anderson has not appeared in over 123 games, being limited to 123 games in both 2019 and 2021, while only playing 79 games in 2022.
But when he’s on the field, he’s worth every penny. Over the past four seasons, Anderson has put up a collective .318/.347/.474 slash line, earning two All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger. Additionally, during the past four seasons, Anderson has a wRC+ of 123 — the seventh-highest mark among shortstops. While Anderson put up a weaker .301/.339/.398 slash line in 2022, he reduced his strikeout rate to an extremely low 15.7% — 7.5% lower than his career mark.
With the top free agent shortstops likely commanding salaries of $30MM or greater, Anderson is a quality bargain for a White Sox team looking to return to playoffs after falling flat in 2022.
Jurickson Profar, Robert Suarez Opt Out Of Contracts; Padres Decline Wil Myers’ Club Option
Outfielder Jurickson Profar and right-hander Robert Suarez exercised the opt-out clauses in their contracts with the Padres, according to the MLB Players Association (Twitter link). The two players have now officially become free agents. Both players will take a $1MM buyout, with Profar opting for free agency over a $7.5MM salary for 2023, and Suarez leaving a $5MM salary for 2023 on the table. In addition, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Padres have declined their $20MM club option on Wil Myers‘ services for the 2023 season, and Myers will also get a $1MM buyout.
After a solid performance in his first season in San Diego, Profar inked a three-year, $21MM deal (with a $10MM mutual option for 2024) to return to the Padres during the 2020-21 offseason. Given Profar’s lack of a consistent track record during his MLB career, the size of the contract was a surprise at the time, and any concerns immediately seemed justified when Profar struggled in 2021. However, Profar was a 2.5 fWAR player in 2022, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers and a 110 wRC+ while playing some respectable defense as the Padres’ everyday left fielder.
Profar’s three-year deal contained opt-outs after both 2021 and 2022, and Profar naturally didn’t exercise his opt-out after the 2021 season’s disappointment. In hitting the open market now, Profar’s three-year deal will end up earning him $13.5MM in total salary, signing bonuses, and his buyout.
Once regarded as the top prospect in baseball, Profar is entering his age-30 season and is now looking more like a solid regular, rather than the superstar status initially predicted for him almost a decade ago. It’ll be interesting to see what his next contract looks like, though his opt-out is a logical move since he’ll surely top the $7.5MM figure. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long had an affinity for Profar dating back those top-prospect days (when Preller worked in the Rangers’ front office), and another new deal with San Diego certainly doesn’t seem out the question.
On the flip side, last summer’s Juan Soto trade dramatically overhauled the Padres’ outfield picture, and Preller might choose to continue the remodel with Profar and Myers both hitting the open market. There wasn’t any doubt Myers’ option would be declined, as the Padres have been trying to trade Myers for the last few years in order to get his contract off the books and ease up their luxury tax burden. Since a trade partner couldn’t be found for Myers and the Padres had to eat virtually all of Eric Hosmer‘s remaining salary in dealing him to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, San Diego ended up surpassing the tax threshold for the second consecutive season.
Myers inked a six-year, $83MM extension with the Friars in January 2017, and though San Diego obviously expected more from its investment, Myers still provided above-average (109 wRC+) over the life of the contract. He hit .252/.327/.451 with 98 home runs over 2486 PA during the last six seasons, with injuries limiting his playing time in both 2018 and 2022. In what might be Myers’ final season with the Padres, he missed close to two months recovering from knee inflammation, and played in only 77 games — Myers still had a respectable 104 wRC+ from a .261/.315/.398 slash line.
After spending his first six professional seasons in the Mexican League and in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez came to MLB in 2022, signing an $11MM deal that broke down as a $1MM signing bonus, $5MM in 2022, and a $5MM player option for 2023. Though knee inflammation sent Suarez to the 60-day injured list, his rookie season was still quite a success, with a 2.27 ERA and a 31.9% strikeout rate over his first 47 2/3 innings in the majors. He carried that success forward with a 3.00 ERA in nine innings during San Diego’s postseason run, though Suarez ended on the sour note of allowing Bryce Harper‘s decisive two-run homer as the Padres were eliminated by the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLCS.
Suarez (who turns 32 in March) stands to build on that rookie year with a multi-year contract in his return to free agency. He is another player the Padres will surely have interest in re-signing, but Suarez will draw plenty of suitors due to the vast number of teams eager to add velocity and strikeouts to their bullpens.
Andrew Chafin Declines Player Option With Tigers
TODAY: Chafin has officially declined his option.
NOVEMBER 2: Tigers reliever Andrew Chafin will decline his $6.5MM player option for 2023, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. He’ll hit the open market five days after the World Series concludes in search of a new multi-year pact.
It’ll be the third consecutive offseason in which the southpaw is available in free agency. After a lengthy stint with the Diamondbacks to begin his career, Chafin was dealt to the Cubs at the 2020 deadline before hitting the open market for the first time. He re-signed with Chicago on a one-year deal the following offseason, then hit the market last winter. That came on the heels of a sparkling 2.83 ERA showing through 68 2/3 frames with the Cubs and A’s which positioned him alongside Aaron Loup and Brooks Raley as the top lefty relievers available. Chafin wound up inking a two-year, $13MM guarantee with the Tigers that allowed him to opt out after his first season.
In a Detroit offseason largely defined by misfires, the Chafin deal marked a stellar pickup. It was never likely he’d manage to replicate a sub-2.00 ERA, but this year’s 2.83 mark across 57 1/3 innings was again excellent. He posted unanimously strong peripherals as well, striking out 27.6% of batters faced and racking up grounders on a bit more than half the batted balls he allowed. For a second straight season, he walked under 8% of opponents, a lower than average mark and a welcome development after some control inconsistency earlier in his career.
Chafin wasn’t quite as dominant against southpaws this past season as he’d been in 2021. After holding lefties to a .170/.250/.223 slash last year, he allowed a .233/.320/.344 mark to them in Detroit. That’s still quite strong overall, and unlike many lefty relievers, Chafin hasn’t been prone to drastic platoon splits. Opposing righties mustered just a .214/.268/.317 line against him, and he fanned almost 27% of right-handed batters for a second straight season.
With that kind of performance, it’s no surprise the Meister Sports Management client believes he’ll top the remaining $6.5MM on his contract. Still, there was some intrigue about his decision, largely due to Detroit’s relative proximity to his Ohio home. That reportedly played a role in his decision to sign with the Tigers, and it was seemingly a factor in the team’s decision-making at this past trade deadline. With Detroit long since out of contention by the end of July, Chafin was a reasonable trade candidate. However, the Tigers didn’t find an offer to their liking, and Petzold has reported the front office didn’t feel pressured to take just any return out of a belief Chafin could trigger his player option to stay in Detroit.
That obviously won’t be the case, and while it stands to reason he’d welcome a return to the Tigers on a new free agent deal, it appears less likely the team would want to top the market for his services. Former GM Al Avila was dismissed midseason and replaced by president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who’s now tasked with overseeing a roster that has a number of injury questions in the starting rotation and players coming off down years all around the diamond. Harris and his staff should have a fair bit of financial breathing room this winter, but it’s unlikely they’ll prioritize adding to the bullpen.
Chafin will be one of the top left-handed relievers on the market. He’s headed into his age-33 season, which could prevent him from finding a three-year deal, but he should at least find strong two-year offers from teams. It’s a generally weak left-handed bullpen class, with Taylor Rogers and Matt Strahm among the other top options available.
Xander Bogaerts Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract
As expected, Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has officially opted out of his contract, as the MLB Players Association announced (via Twitter) that Bogaerts was among the latest players to join the free agent market. Bogaerts will leave the final three years and $60MM of his deal with Boston to look for a larger contract on the open market.
There was never much suspense over Bogaerts’ decision, as an opt-out always seemed pretty likely even from the moment the shortstop signed the six-year, $120MM extension back in April 2019. Bogaerts just turned 30 years old last month, and he’ll surely command far beyond three years and $60MM in his first taste of the free agent market.
Perhaps the only question surrounding the opt-out was whether or not the Red Sox would make it a moot point, by agreeing to another extension with Bogaerts. However, extension talks back in the spring reportedly saw Boston make a surprisingly small offer of only an extra season and another $30MM added to Bogaerts’ current contract. As of a month ago, Bogaerts said the two sides hadn’t had any other further negotiations, though it’s probably safe to assume that some talks did take place, given how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom stressed that Bogaerts was Boston’s top priority heading into the offseason.
The Red Sox still retain exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts until free agency officially opens on Thursday. While the two sides have shared mutual interest in Bogaerts’ continued future in Boston, it would be awfully surprising to see the two sides agree to a new deal so close to the opening of the market. Once other teams can speak to Bogaerts, it remains to be seen whether the Sox will outbid other suitors, or if they’ll perhaps explore other shortstop options after 10 seasons with Bogaerts at Fenway Park.
Yankees Exercise Club Option On Luis Severino
TODAY: The Yankees officially announced that Severino’s option has been exercised.
NOVEMBER 4: During a press conference this afternoon, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that the club will pick up their $15MM option on right-hander Luis Severino. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on Twitter.
The news of the decision is not terribly shocking, as Severino is a bargain at that price as long as he’s healthy. After a couple of excellent seasons in 2017 and 2018 where Severino tossed over 190 innings in each and registered an ERA around 3.00 both times, he and the club agreed to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to 2019.
Unfortunately, the club hasn’t been able to recoup much on that investment so far. Various shoulder injuries limited Severino to just 12 innings in 2019, which was followed by Tommy John surgery in February of 2020. He eventually returned late in 2021, throwing just six innings, meaning he only threw 18 total frames over the first three years of the extensi0n.
In 2022, Severino was finally healthy for an extended stretch, though he did go on the 60-day IL from mid-July to mid-September due to a lat strain. Still, he was able to take the ball 19 times and throw 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA. He struck out 27.7% of batters faced while walking just 7.4% and getting grounders on 44.3% of balls in play. He also made two postseason starts and added another 11 innings there. While he hasn’t totally put the injury concerns behind him, that was still much more encouraging than anything the Yankees had seen from him since 2018.
The $15MM club option came with a $2.75MM buyout, making this a net $12.25MM decision. That number is only a few ticks above what a backend, innings-eating starter might get on the open market. For instance, Zack Greinke signed with the Royals for one year and $13MM and the Cubs claimed Wade Miley off waivers in order to pick up his $10MM club option. Severino has shown himself capable of being a front-end rotation member, making it an easy call to pick up that option.
Going forward, Severino should slot into a Yankee rotation that is already quite strong. Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes Jr. and Severino should form a solid front three. Frankie Montas dealt with shoulder issues this year but can be retained via arbitration for 2023 and should be slotted in as long as he’s recovered. That leaves a fifth spot open, with Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt both on hand as solid options for that. While most teams usually go into the offseason with major question marks in their rotations, the Yankees seem poised to be able to focus their attentions elsewhere, with the most obvious question being whether or not they can convince Aaron Judge to stay in the Bronx.
For Severino, he has one more season to try to put the injury concerns behind him before he heads to free agency for the first time in his career. Despite the setbacks, he is still in a good place for a nice payday since he will turn 29 in February and be a free agent going into his age-30 season. He’ll be looking to have a strong campaign in 2023, both to help the team win and to go into the open market on a high.
Carlos Correa Opts Out Of Twins Contract
TODAY: Correa officially opted out of his contract today and became a free agent, according to the MLB Players Association (via Twitter).
OCTOBER 13: From the moment Carlos Correa signed a short-term, opt-out-laden deal with the Twins back in March, it’s felt like a foregone conclusion that he’d take the first opt-out provision in that contract and return to free agency this winter. Unsurprisingly, Correa revealed in an interview with El Nuevo Dia’s Jorge Figueroa Loza that he plans to do just that. Correa, citing his age and performance with the Twins this past season, tells Figueroa Loza that exercising the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract “is the right decision.”
As he’s done on multiple occasions recently, Correa effused praise for the Twins organization and stated multiple times that his hope is to remain with in Minnesota on a long-term deal. To that end, it’s worth noting that Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said just this week that there have already been conversations with Correa and agent Scott Boras (link via Megan Ryan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). Falvey indicated a willingness to again “get creative” in order to keep Correa in Minnesota while also recognizing that they’ll likely face stiff competition in his return to the market. Correa, even in repeatedly expressing his hopes of signing a long-term deal with Minnesota, acknowledged that “what you want doesn’t always happen.”
By virtually any measure, Correa’s 2022 season was a strong one. The former Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs, 24 doubles and a triple in 590 plate appearances across 136 games. Correa’s power output was down a bit, but that was true on a league-wide scale in 2022. Both wRC+ and OPS+, which adjust for the league’s run-scoring environment and for a player’s home park, pegged Correa’s bat 40% better than league average in 2022.
Defensively, Correa didn’t replicate his 2021 Platinum Glove campaign, although it may not have been reasonable to expect him to duplicate what will likely be a career year in terms of defensive stats. His top-of-the-scale ratings dipped to merely above-average in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0). Notably, Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged Correa as a negative defender (-3) for the first time since 2016. When taking in his defensive body of work as a whole, however, Correa is tied for sixth among all MLB players, regardless of position, with 50 DRS since 2018. His 45 OAA in that time rank seventh.
Both the Minnesota front office and manager Rocco Baldelli have praised Correa’s glovework on the whole, and also touted him as a valuable clubhouse presence and vocal team leader. Correa has also been more durable in the last three seasons than he was earlier in his career. He had brief absences in 2022 after being plunked on the hand and while spending time on the Covid-related injured list, but Correa has played in 89% of his team’s possible games since 2020.
While last year’s market didn’t produce the $330MM+ contract Correa reportedly sought, the 2022-23 market will be a different animal. He’ll be going up against three fellow star shortstops — Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner — rather than four this time around, and as Correa himself noted within this latest interview, he’ll be the only of the four who’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. (Players can only receive a QO once in their career, and Correa rejected one last November.) The upcoming offseason also won’t be impeded by a lockout as the 2021-22 offseason was — a 99-day transaction stoppage during which time Correa also switched representation, hiring the Boras Corporation.
All of that context notwithstanding, it’s still tough — albeit not impossible — to imagine Correa landing the megadeal he sought a year ago. He is, after all, a year older this time around and is coming off a strong but lesser campaign than the one he enjoyed with Houston in 2021.
That’s not to say that he can’t expect to find a lengthy and lucrative deal in free agency, just that securing a decade-long deal in the vicinity of his current annual value might not be in the cards. In all likelihood, Boras and Correa will still initially seek out that decade-long term and perhaps again take aim at Bryce Harper‘s $330MM overall guarantee — the largest free-agent deal in history — but a compromise in years and/or annual value could ultimately be required. Given that Correa is still just 28 and will play all of next season at that age, even a long-term deal might once again contain an opt-out opportunity a few years into the contract.
As for his stated desire to stay put in Minnesota, it’s feels like a long shot — albeit only in the sense that it would require the Twins, for a second time, to venture into a fiscal stratosphere that has previously been beyond ownership’s limits. Signing Correa would undoubtedly require Minnesota to handily surpass the franchise-record $184MM commitment they made to Joe Mauer, but that contract was signed 13 years ago and the team’s payroll has grown considerably since that time. The Twins trotted out a payroll around $140MM in 2022, and without Correa on the books, they’ll only have about $40MM in guarantees ($52.5MM after Sonny Gray‘s option is exercised).
There’s plenty of room for Correa on the payroll, both in the short-term and in the long-term. Beyond the 2023 season, the only commitment of any real note that’s on the books is Byron Buxton‘s contract, and his base salary pays him a reasonable $15MM annually — only escalating toward its maximum $23MM based on MVP voting. (At that point, of course, the Twins would be thrilled to pay him that loftier salary.) The question, then, is not so much whether the Twins can “afford” to sign Correa but whether doing so is the best use of their budget and whether the front office (and owner Jim Pohlad) are convinced that he’ll merit an annual salary approaching or in excess of $30MM per year for the majority of a long-term commitment.
If not the Twins, Correa will have no shortage of options on the market. Each of the Twins, Dodgers (Turner), Red Sox (Bogaerts) and Braves (Swanson) could lose a franchise shortstop and look to the market for a replacement. (It’s worth noting that in Royce Lewis, Gavin Lux, Trevor Story and Vaughnn Grissom, those four teams also all have shortstop alternatives already in-house, as well, however.) Beyond that quartet of teams, it’s widely expected that the Cubs, Phillies and perhaps the Giants will be involved in the shortstop market. The Angels, Cardinals and Orioles are candidates to seek upgrades, too, and given the caliber of names in question, it’s possible that other teams with entrenched shortstops could move their incumbent to accommodate one of these four free agents.
It’s a good time to be a free-agent shortstop, and Correa’s recent comments all but definitively indicate that, barring an extension between now and the opening of free agency (five days after the World Series ends), that’s what he’ll once again be this winter.