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Dodgers Sign Alex Wood

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The Dodgers have agreed to a deal with free agent left-hander Alex Wood, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). The deal will guarantee the ACES client $4MM on a one-year term, with incentives that can push the total to $10MM, Rosenthal adds (via Twitter). Wood has already passed his physical, Rosenthal further reports. Wood himself has confirmed the agreement on Twitter.

The reunion marks a nice birthday present for Wood, who turned 29 today. The lefty has done his best work in Dodger Blue, combining for a 3.46 ERA and 3.50 FIP over 434.2 innings in three-plus seasons in Los Angeles. Over that time, Wood only managed an average strikeout rate (22.3%), but he proved stingy with walks (6.7%) and induced ground balls on over half the balls in play against him. That mid-rotation output prompted the Reds to acquire him (alongisde Yasiel Puig and Kyle Farmer) last offseason for a pair of well-regarded prospects.

Unfortunately, a back injury limited Wood to seven ineffective starts in Cincinnati. He didn’t make his season debut until July 28, and only once did he exceed six innings in a start. Never an extremely hard thrower, Wood’s 89.98 MPH average sinker velocity last season, per Brooks Baseball, was down over two MPH from his career-best 2017 effort.

2019 struggles notwithstanding, it’s not hard to see the upside for both parties. Wood was an above-average starter as recently as 2018. He has four career seasons in which he was worth at least two wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, and as noted, he remains quite young for a free agent. Injuries have hampered Wood in recent seasons, to be sure, as he’s been on the injured list each of the past four years. There’s little long-term risk here for the team, though, and their $4MM investment is minuscule for a franchise which ended the 2019 season with an estimated $210MM payroll, per Roster Resource.

Wood, meanwhile, gets an opportunity to reestablish his health. Should he reclaim his prior form, he’d likely earn some or all of the available incentives. More importantly, he can reenter the open market at a still-young 30 next offseason in search of the multiyear deal for which he seemed ticketed before his 2019 tribulations.

Wood joins a crowded Dodgers’ rotation mix behind Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. LA hasn’t been shy about moving pitchers in and out of the rotation under manager Dave Roberts. Wood figures to compete with Kenta Maeda, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and the newly-signed Jimmy Nelson for rotation innings. Surely, some or all of those pitchers will log some time out of the Dodgers’ oft-maligned bullpen as well.

So continues an offseason trend for the NL West favorites. Nelson, Wood, and reliever Blake Treinen have all been brought in on one-year deals this offseason. All three have shown high ceilings in the past, but struggled through injuries or ineffectiveness (or both) in 2019. They may not be the stars Dodger fans have been coveting, although each brings quite a bit of upside. None, it should be noted, would preclude the Andrew Friedman-led front office from striking on a bigger name if the opportunity were to present itself.

Rangers To Sign Todd Frazier

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The Rangers have reached an agreement with free-agent third baseman Todd Frazier, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that it’s a one-year, $5MM guarantee that includes a club option for a second year. Frazier will collect a $3.5MM salary in 2020 with a $5.75MM option for 2021 that comes with a $1.5MM buyout, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal is pending a physical.

Todd Frazier | Edit via MLBTR's Zach Gardner

Frazier, who will turn 34 in February, just wrapped up his second season with the Mets, authoring a nice bounce-back after a rough 2018. He posted a .251/.329/.443 slash line with 21 homers in 499 plate appearances. He’s been sapped of some of the power that made him a fan favorite in Cincinnati, but he has remained a roughly league-average hitter that also provides passable defense at third base. That’s enough to make him attractive to a Texas team that didn’t get great production from the position last year.

The numbers Frazier posted last year were in line with his career marks, making his dismal 2018 season look more like an outlier. If that’s true, and the Rangers get a version of Frazier that performs closer to his 2019 levels, it will be hard for Texas to be upset with such a low-cost signing that fills a clear need. Nick Solak looked to be the best in-house candidate to claim the position, though the Rangers may prefer to deploy him in a utility infield role.

Texas has been variously connected to all of the offseason’s big names at third base, including top free agents Anthony Rendon, now with the division rival Angels, and Josh Donaldson. The latter has yet to sign, but the Rangers are said to have backed off in their pursuit as he eyes a four-year deal. Most recently, they’ve been connected to Rockies star Nolan Arenado, though there’s skepticism that a deal will get completed. To be sure, Frazier doesn’t offer the same star power as the aforementioned trio, but he represents an adequate stopgap and insurance should they go 0-for-3 in their pursuit of the big fish.

Moreover, the addition of Frazier, who can also play first base, presumably doesn’t necessarily preclude the Rangers from continuing their pursuit of a top-flight option at the hot corner. Indeed, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Texas will not cease in attempting to acquire Arenado even after signing Frazier. Should their play for Arenado come to fruition, Frazier would likely slide into a timeshare with Ronald Guzman at first base. And should the Rangers miss out on Arenado and Donaldson, then Frazier is penciled in as a short-term solution, with top prospect Josh Jung waiting on the horizon.

To this point, the Rangers have allocated most of their offseason resources to upgrades on the pitching side, adding Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles to the projected starting rotation. That has left some work to be done on the position player side of things, with third base getting the most buzz. But the Rangers have some interest in free-agent slugger Nicholas Castellanos, though interestingly they like Castellanos only as a potential first base upgrade—not as an outfielder. On the other hand, Marcell Ozuna might still be in play for the outfield, which currently features Joey Gallo, Danny Santana, and Willie Calhoun.

Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez

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The Dodgers have struck a record-breaking arbitration deal with outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Bellinger is said to have a $11.5MM pact, topping the prior record (Kris Bryant, $10.85MM) for a first-time arb-eligible player.

Other top performers have also reached deals. Corey Seager will play at a $7.6MM salary. And utilityman Enrique Hernandez will earn $5.9MM, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).

Bellinger lands right at the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. As Matt explained in a closer look, though, there was an argument for the reigning NL MVP to earn even more. He’ll still end up setting a new high-water mark for arbitration rookies by a fairly healthy margin.

Entering 2019, Bellinger had already established himself as a high-quality hitter and versatile defender. But he took things to a whole new level in his age-23 season, slashing a hefty .305/.406/.629 and launching 47 home runs while delivering big value on the bases and with the glove.

The projections were also close for Seager ($7.1MM) and Hernandez ($5.5MM). Both players were at less than top form in 2019 but remain key contributors — at least, unless they end up being shuffled out of the deck with a spring trade.

Indians Avoid Arbitration With Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger

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4:23pm: Mike Clevinger also has a deal with the Cleveland org, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a $4.1MM deal, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal (Twitter link).

Clevinger had projected for $400K more than the settlement point. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained, there was a good argument for him to reach his $4.5MM projection. But the Indians were able to hold Clevinger to just under the amount secured by Kyle Hendricks in 2018.

1:48pm: The Indians have avoided arbitration with shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll reportedly earn $17.5MM in a deal that also includes some award incentives.

The arbitration model of MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected a $16.7MM salary for the still-youthful star. But it was an especially difficult number to gauge, as Matt explained in his recent look at Lindor’s arb case.

Interestingly, Matt had anticipated that his projection was a bit high. It turned out to be low. As he noted in that post, the difficulty was in sorting out how to handle the positional adjustment for Lindor. While recent raises for lumbering sluggers might have operated as caps for Lindor’s earnings, he obviously could and would have argued that his defensive proficiency should be weighed on the scale. The team obviously agreed — or, at least, felt there was a legitimate chance that an arbitrator would be swayed by such evidence.

This now makes for an important market marker to bear in mind in the future. Of course, it’s likelier to act as a ceiling unless a truly exceptional player comes along. Lindor, who just turned 26, swatted 32 home runs and slashed .284/.335/.518 in 654 plate appearances in 2019.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

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The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. Betts, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, will receive a record-setting $27MM for his final season of club control. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe, meanwhile, tweets that Bradley will earn $11MM. Betts’ record payout comes in $700K shy of his $27.7MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, while Bradley’s $11MM salary is an exact match with his projection.  The Boston organization also locked up righty Brandon Workman to a $3.5MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Betts’ contract sets a record for an arbitration salary, topping previous record holder Nolan Arenado’s old mark by a full million dollars. He’ll head into his final season of club control as one of the more fascinating storylines in baseball; Red Sox ownership reportedly is intent on dipping south of the luxury tax, and while there’s been no indication that the team is definitively planning to move Betts this winter — much the opposite, as of late, in fact — they could find themselves in a trickier situation as the trade deadline approaches.

Boston could yet take another run at extending Betts, but the former AL MVP has been vocal and candid about his desire to test the open market once he accrues six years of Major League service. As such, the team’s previous efforts to hammer out a long-term deal have fallen flat.

It’s another case altogether with Bradley, who is also entering his final year of club control but is a much more plausible trade candidate. Moving him wouldn’t dip the Red Sox below the luxury line in one fell swoop, as moving Betts effectively would, but as the season draws nearer it’d be a surprise if Bradley’s name weren’t bandied about the rumor circuit to an extent. While his overall season numbers in 2019 weren’t particularly eye-catching, Bradley hit .252/.342/.504 over his final 422 plate appearances and has long been considered a standout defender. Given the lack of center field options available in free agency, he could yet hold appeal to a club looking for a short-term boost in center.

Diamondbacks To Extend David Peralta

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The Diamondbacks and outfielder David Peralta are in agreement on a three-year extension that’ll guarantee the ACES client a total of $22MM, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). He can earn another $1.25MM annually via incentives. The contract will pay Peralta $7MM in 2020 and $7.5MM in each of the two subsequent seasons, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

David Peralta | Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Peralta was arbitration-eligible for the final time and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM. Instead, he’ll sign away a pair of free-agent years on a contract that spans his age-32 through age-34 seasons.

The deal looks to be a sound one for the D-backs, who owed Peralta a raise on last season’s $7MM salary. While the exact number he’d have secured can’t be known, even if he’d fallen shy of his $8.8MM projection, it still looks as though Peralta is signing away two free-agent years at a total of no more than $14MM. That falls a bit shy of what Corey Dickerson just received from the Marlins ($17.5MM), though it’s worth noting that Peralta is a bit older. All the same, Arizona looks to have carved out a nice value with the move.

Peralta, 32, hit .275/.343/.461 (107 wRC+) with a dozen homers, 29 doubles and three triples in 99 games/423 plate appearances with the Snakes in 2019. He endured three separate stints on the injured list due to an issue with the AC joint in his right shoulder, which limited his time on the field and likely helped to sap his production. A year prior, in 2018, Peralta put together then finest season of his career when he slashed .293/.352/.516 with 30 long balls.

Both Baseball-Reference (8.4) and FanGraphs (7.7) agree that Peralta has been worth in the vicinity of eight wins above replacement over the past three years. He’s consistently been an above-average bat and at least an average defender in the outfield corners, and his 2019 season rated particularly well according to most defensive metrics, as he took home a Gold Glove Award. While there’s always some risk of decline as he enters his mid-30s — particularly coming off a shoulder issue — it’s easy to see why the Diamondbacks preferred to keep him in the fold beyond his preexisting level of club control.

From a payroll standpoint, the deal actually helps to lower Arizona’s bottom line in 2020. Peralta’s salary for the coming season is the same as his 2019 salary and $1.8MM shy of where he’d been projected in arbitration, leaving the club with a roughly $114MM payroll (per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). The D-backs had less than $60MM on the books in 2021 and less than $40MM in 2022 prior to brokering this multi-year arrangement, so fitting him onto the ledger for an additional two seasons was rather easy.

Seeking MLB Arbitration Expert For Paid Project

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As you may know, MLBTR has been publishing salary projections for arbitration eligible players for nine years, using an algorithm developed and maintained by economist Matt Swartz.

The traditional method of projecting the proper salary for arbitration eligible players does not involve an algorithm, instead focusing on comparable players.  As we’re always seeking to improve our own knowledge and projections, I hope to be trained on this traditional method.  I’m seeking a person with relevant experience at the MLB Labor Relations Department, MLB Players Association, teams, agencies, or third party consulting firms who is willing to teach me traditional arbitration projecting as a paid project.  We would collect the statistics needed and work through relevant examples.  Please note that I am not interested in learning how to argue cases at hearings, but rather in projecting the correct salary or salary range for any individual player.  If you’re interested in this paid project, please contact me at mlbarbitration@gmail.com and outline your relevant experience.

Rays Acquire Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena From Cardinals

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The Rays have acquired first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, outfielder Randy Arozarena, and the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance Round A draft pick in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, the Rays’ pick in Competitive Balance Round B, and a catching prospect from the lower levels of the minors, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Edgardo Rodriguez is the catcher going to the Cardinals, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets.  Passan reported earlier today that Liberatore was headed to St. Louis, with Rosenthal adding that the trade involved six assets and at least two draft picks.

Tampa Bay was known to be looking outfield depth beyond its starting trio of Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier, and Hunter Renfroe, especially after the club non-tendered Guillermo Heredia, its primary fourth outfielder from 2019.  Heredia’s role will be filled by Arozarena, who also brings added potential and some strong hitting numbers in his native Cuba, in the minor leagues, and even in his brief 23-plate appearance cameo with the Cardinals last season.

An international signing in the summer of 2016, Arozarena has a .292/.377/.477 slash line and 38 homers over 1302 minor league PA.  MLB Pipeline ranked him as the tenth-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system, with a scouting report that expressed some concerns about Arozarena’s aggressiveness at the plate and on the bases, as well as his ability at “making swift adjustments at the plate.”  Nonetheless, Arozarena’s hitting approach has only delivered good results thus far, and his speed makes him a solid center field option at least in the near future, if he might be better suited for the corners down the road.

Jose MartinezMartinez is also technically a depth option for the Rays in the corner outfield, but given Martinez’s longstanding defensive issues, he has long been tabbed as an ideal candidate to play for an American League team with DH at-bats on offer.  The right-handed hitting Martinez will now join three left-handed hitters (Nate Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, and the newly-signed Yoshitomo Tsutsugo) in the first base/DH mix, though Tampa expects Tsutsugo to see some action at third base.

While it remains to be seen how the Rays will fully shuffle and adjust their lineups, Martinez’s primary role seems pretty simple — he’ll be called upon to mash southpaws.  The 31-year-old late bloomer has hit .331/.405/.570 with 15 homers over 298 career PA against left-handed pitching, and also solid career numbers against righties, though Martinez’s same-sided productivity declined last season.  With fielding no longer a concern, however, the Rays (who have been linked to Martinez on the rumor mill for well over a year) are hoping that Martinez can concentrate fully on being a force at the plate.

The Cardinals entered the offseason with a clear goal of reducing their surplus in the outfield, and between today’s trade and dealing Adolis Garcia to the Rangers last month, St. Louis has achieved that goal without making any significant impact on its 2020 roster.  Perhaps most importantly, the Cards were able to move their excess parts while picking up one of baseball’s more promising pitching prospects in Liberatore, whose credentials we detailed earlier today.

Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and utilityman Tommy Edman all figure to play notable roles in the Cardinals’ outfield next season, with top prospect Dylan Carlson on the cusp of his MLB debut and utilitymen Rangel Ravelo and Yairo Munoz also capable of playing on the grass in a pinch.  It’s still possible St. Louis could further trade from this collection….or, perhaps, add to it.  The Cards have been linked to free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna all winter long, and re-signing Ozuna would allow the club to put a proven everyday performer in the midst of an outfield group that, besides Fowler, is young and pretty inexperienced at the big league level.

The draft pick swap is also a major component of this deal, as Tampa Bay will now have the 38th overall selection in the 2020 draft and St. Louis moves to 66th overall.  (Here is the current draft order, as well as the outline of the Competitive Balance Round selection process.)  The Competitive Balance Round picks are the only types of draft selections that can be traded, and the Rays have now boosted their standing next June by almost a full round’s worth of picks.  The Cards may see their 28-slot drop as the cost of acquiring a major prospect like Liberatore, who likely wasn’t available for only Martinez and Arozarena.

The 19-year-old Rodriguez has hit .338/.389/.495 with six home runs over his first 244 PA as a professional, two seasons with the Rays’ teams in the Dominican Summer League and rookie-ball Gulf Coast League (though he missed over six weeks this season due to injury).  Signed out of Venezuela during the 2017-18 international signing period, Rodriguez was ranked prior to the 2019 season as the 53rd-best prospect in Tampa Bay’s system, as per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen.  It remains to be seen if Rodriguez can remain as a catcher, though Longenhagen/McDaniels were impressed by his hitting ability.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cardinals Acquire Matt Liberatore

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6:16PM: Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas aren’t expected to be part of the trade, Passan reports.  Fowler also isn’t thought to be part of this deal, though he could eventually be on the move elsewhere since the Cardinals have been discussing him in other trade negotiations.

5:37PM: The trade is shaping up as a multi-player blockbuster, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) reports that the Cardinals and Rays are each sending three “pieces” to the other in the deal.  “At least two of those pieces are draft picks,” Rosenthal notes, indicating that Competitive Balance Round selections (the only type of draft picks that can be traded) are in play.  The Cards are slated to pick in Competitive Balance Round A following the first round of the draft, whereas the Rays draw after the second round in Competitive Balance Round B, so there is roughly a 30-slot gap between the two picks.

4:57PM: The Cardinals have discussed Tyler O’Neill with the Rays and other teams this offseason, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, though there isn’t yet any indication that O’Neill could be involved in the Liberatore trade.

3:53PM: The Cardinals have acquired left-hander Matthew Liberatore from the Rays, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  The return headed back to Tampa Bay is expected to include at least one player from the Cards’ Major League roster, and hints at a very notable trade given Liberatore’s status as one of the top prospects in the Rays’ system.

Picked 16th overall in the 2018, Liberatore has gotten off to a solid start in his young career, with a 2.59 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.57 K/BB rate over his first 111 professional innings.  That includes a 3.10 ERA over 78 1/3 IP at the A-ball level in 2019, though Liberatore missed a bit of time with a minor back injury.

It was a performance that did nothing to dim Liberatore’s stock in the eyes of evaluators, as the most recent prospect rankings from Baseball America (31st), Baseball Prospectus (37th), MLB.com (41st), and Fangraphs (63rd) all place Liberatore solidly among the sport’s top minor leaguers.  MLB Pipeline ranks Liberatore fourth on its list of the best left-handed pitching prospects, with a scouting report touting his potential for as many as three 60-grade pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale.  In fact, Liberatore’s fastball, changeup, and slider all earned a 55 grade from Pipeline, while his “swing-and-miss hammer” of a curveball gets a 60 grade.

Liberatore is only 20 years old, and at 6’5″ and 200 pounds, might still need to add some bulk to withstand the workload of a Major League starting pitcher.  He’ll now immediately become the most promising young arm in the St. Louis farm system, now that the likes of Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson have graduated to the big leagues, and Alex Reyes’ injury concerns continues to cloud his future.  Many of the Cardinals’ current top youngsters are position players, which could be addressed by whatever player or players are sent back to Tampa Bay.

As Passan notes, the Rays have been looking for outfield help, so it’s logical to guess that the outfielder-heavy Cards could be dealing from their logjam on the grass.  It’s probably safe to assume that the Rays aren’t taking on Dexter Fowler’s big contract (unless this is part of a much larger trade), but St. Louis has a wealth of younger outfielders that could be fits for Tampa Bay — Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Jose Martinez, or utilityman Tommy Edman could all be part of this trade.  One can’t even rule out top prospect Dylan Carlson, as while the Cardinals have been resistant to offers, it would take a promising young arm like Liberatore to even get the Cards’ attention on a Carlson deal.  Still, St. Louis is probably less likely to deal a player who could help their team as early as 2020 in order to land a pitcher who is still at least a couple of years away.

Diamondbacks Sign Hector Rondon

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January 9: The Diamondbacks have announced the signing.

January 8, 3:10pm: Rondon’s option is valued at $4MM and can increase to $5MM based on games finished, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

2:20pm: The D-backs have agreed to terms with right-handed reliever Hector Rondon on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2021 season, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Rondon, an Octagon client, will receive a $3MM guarantee that comes in the form of a $2.5MM salary and $500K buyout on the club option. The deal is pending a physical.

Hector Rondon | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Rondon, 32 next month, spent the past two seasons with the Astros and has previously served as the closer for the Cubs. His two-year stint in Houston produced 119 2/3 innings of 3.46 ERA ball, and he averaged 8.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 with a 48 percent ground-ball rate.

A larger payday for Rondon might’ve been in order had he not taken some notable steps back in 2019. The righty’s 7.1 K/9, 18.7 percent strikeout rate and 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate were the lowest marks of his seven-year big league career. And, after demonstrating pristine control with the Cubs in 2015-16, Rondon has continued to issue walks at roughly the league average rate dating back to the 2017 campaign.

That said, Rondon still averaged nearly 97 mph on his heater this past season and maintained a respectable 3.71 ERA. He’ll give the D-backs another experienced late-inning arm to pair with the likes of Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin. Rondon is the second veteran arm added by general manager Mike Hazen and his staff this winter, as the team also signed former Brewers righty Junior Guerra to join the late-inning mix. There’s certainly still room for improvement and outside additions, but the bullpen has added a bit more stability without taking on a substantial financial risk.

With Rondon on board, Arizona current projects to have an Opening Day payroll of roughly $117MM, though additional roster machinations will almost certainly impact the final tabulation. It’s still possible that left-hander Robbie Ray could be marketed to other clubs as he enters his final season of team control, and the Diamondbacks could also continue to explore further bench and bullpen upgrades.

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